NationStates Jolt Archive

First, referencing: The corresponding IC thread is located here (http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showthread.php?p=13498621).
This thread splits off from Dark Continent (here (http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showthread.php?t=490304), with OOC thread here (http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showthread.php?t=534425)), and DC itself split from Iron West (found here (http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showthread.php?t=484776)).

Second, on the name for the thread... events here cover a wide swathe of northwest Africa: Morocco, Western Sahara, and Mauritania. Add in Algeria (and possibly Libya) and you've got the Maghreb, 'land where the sun sets', so it seemed appropriate, if perhaps not too inventive. I figured that not-really related events in Algeria and Libya might fit either here or in their own thread, once these events catch up to the present pause. The SADR has a submarine in Libya that may take foolishly to the Med, at least ^_^.

On the thread itself, I've made an attempt to summarize the current layout of forces and notable events in the Western Sahara and Mauritania.
First, the Spanish column returning from bombardment of Saharawi population centers. The force, as last RPed, consisted of 100 artillery pieces (mostly tactical 105mm guns, with some 155mm mentioned as well), which had expended significant wear and ammunition in flattening the major Saharawi encampments east of the berm. The total ordnance expended was "48 thousand high explosive and high-explosive/fragmentary artillery rounds", in addition to the Moroccans having used massed artillery fire to clear minefields at the outset of the war, so I dont imagine there's much ammunition left in-theatre at the moment. Accompanying this force is, I surmise, a quantity of troops drawn from the two infantry regiments and one armoured brigade that make up the Spanish Desert Expeditionary Corps (SPADEC). The armour, reading through previous posts, was divided to assist mechanized infantry in convoy escort and scouring the more open desert regions, so quite likely the artillery defense is made up predominantly of Spanish infantrymen, while smaller vehicle groups will be redeploying back to join the battle. Air support is another matter entirely... attack helicopters were deploying from behind the berm for strikes, and NG's last post on aircraft listed a wing of Moroccan Mirage III’s supported by five squadrons of Algerian Mirage-2000s, with a squad each of Royal Spanish and Royal French Rafales, operating out of Morocco to strike targets in Mauritania and Western Sahara. A few had been lost over Mauritania when bombing the capital, Moroccans and Algerians rather than the Rafales as I recall. There are also a dozen or so Mangustas operating in the area, from bases behind the berm (well, three, but I'm assuming there's probably a squadron operating together as targets in Mauritania would be out of their range) .
They have just been intercepted by a SADR mechanized column [2nd Region: Battalions 1, 3, 4, 5, 6; Squadron 1. 3rd Region: Battalion 2. 6th Region: Battalions 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. 7th Region: Battalions 1, 2, 3, 4, 5; Reserve Battalions 1, 2, under command of Ahmed Fal].

There is a significant number of Saharawi civilians, mostly the elderly and young children, along with NGO aid workers and a small number of SADR officials and troops, fleeing south from the ruins of Tifariti and Bir Lahlou towards Bir Maghrein in Mauritania, home to a number of Saharawi expatriates. They were strafed and napalmed by Morocco at one point, then such attacks were called off. Once they reach their destination, they'll face a humanitarian crisis due to shortages of food, water, shelter, medical supplies, and able-bodied young people, most of whom (men and women, as well as teenagers) remained to fight and die at Tifariti or are otherwise offering scattered resistance in the Western Sahara.

The remaining Saharawi are scattered across southwest Western Sahara, northwest Mauritania, with handfuls deeper into the Sahara (the southeast of Roycelandian Algeria mostly, as south Libya-north Niger is the realm of the Tuareg). Amongst them are a number of Lusakans, who at this stage are likely still rather motivated... the fragmentation of the UAR postdates the League invasions in West Africa, though the Spanish-Moroccan assault does take place only after Portugal has been secured, so I may be mistaken in how I'm lining up the relevant events.
The only other Saharawi concentration of note is at Zug. There can be found a cluster of militia forces [the bulk of the 1st Region's 5th Battalion, 3rd Reserve Battalion, Women's Battalions 5 through 9, Youth Battalions 4 through 6], and a significant minefield enveloping the town from southwest to east, with the southeast comparatively clear. As far as I can tell, they were bypassed by the Moroccans heading south into Mauritania, but they seem a likely target for Mirages seeking airstrike targets in the desert.

Very early on in the campaign, Spain decided to draw back its African involvement in order to fortify Portugal and the rest of the Iberian. Then Spain switched players, and additional Spanish reinforcements were dispatched, consisting of the 4th Motorized Infantry Battalion, the “Cristo de Lepanto” (detached from the 2nd Tercio “Duque de Alba"), which will arrive in Morocco soon after the present engagement if I've got my timing right.

Morocco has ships operating in the Med, and deployed sea mines thereabouts, presumably as part of League plans to achieve full control the Western part of the sea. Given the British have now gotten back Gibraltar, and the Brits/Germans/Polish are moving to bases in Cyprus, these minefields may well have been reported and maps turned over to London and Berlin by Versailles and Rabat, so as to avoid accidentally sinking any of the ships making the Atlantic-to-Cyprus run, though that reporting would expand the possibility of leaks to other parties and give potential foes knowledge of Moroccan minefield layouts (Spanish probably, as Rabat doesnt seem likely to have a dedicated minelaying policy).

Rabat has also tested a nuclear device in the deserts of the Western Sahara, presumably announcing their power. I think the timing of this will put it after the current battles, either just prior to or on the heels of the Franco-British ceasefire, and thus before the French have put their puppet regimes in place. A nuclear Morocco may well be an important point as the USQ tries to push the League out of Africa, and as Progressive states meddle further in the Western Sahara, as well as in relations between the Sultan and his ostensible League allies.
I had also previously mentioned the reasons why a nuclear test in Western Sahara was a horrible idea, due to wind patterns and the loose nature of the soil, but the Canaries might just get lucky and have rain hit in the hours and days afterwards, dropping the danger into the ocean instead.

In Mauritania, the conventional military is scattered across the country's southern half, with the bulk in the capital and surrounding province, including most of the nation's dedicated AA assets. Units are dispersed, particularly those which utilize tanks or vehicles, so as to avoid destruction by airstrikes, and would likely be encountered piecemeal singly or in pairs, accompanied by small numbers of infantry and technicals.

A significant Combine fleet is making its way north along Africa's Atlantic coast, bearing aircraft and troops destined to join the Saharawi as they battle the invaders. These will be approaching in the immediate aftermath of (two to three days following) the massive Indian-League naval engagement. I expect they will request Indian ships to join them, and will probably be turned down, but that will come up in RP once more immediate matters have been dealt with.

Speaking of temporal matters, this portion of the African conflict has fallen behind the rest, what with the loss of players for both Morocco and Spain. There's still a lot of active combat to get through before this area catches up to events in ECOWAS, and by the time of the secret Franco-Soviet peace and elections in the occupied ECOWAS states, Combine forces will be active in the theatre and things may well look quite different. Things arent as far behind as they might otherwise be, however, as the Spanish take and secured Portugal before deploying SPADEC, meaning the Moroccan invasion started several weeks following the French invasion of ECOWAS.

A minor issue, which perhaps ought be played out, is the return of the Spanish enclave at Melilla to Morocco, which was promised at the start of Iron West. Negotiations were supposed to have begun on that point, but never appeared in RP as the major fighting was still ongoing when we lost the two players who ought have been doing the bargaining. I was under the impression that Spain had no intention of giving up Ceuta, though Morocco wanted it, and its probably safe to say that SPADEC's help in the Western Sahara would mean the Sultan wouldnt argue the point.

I can only assume that you're going to be RPing both Morocco and the SADR, but if you'd prefer that someone else take Morocco, I'd be willing.

Heh, I'll admit I've sometimes considered that possibility ^_^.

More seriously though, Morocco has, as an ally of Spain and the League, fallen into Nova Gaul's hands after the departure of its player, so it does have a representative in some sense.

I do, however, have the impression that after spending a significant amount of time on the minutae of modern military operations, NG is ready to move back to the grandeur and ceremony of royal courts, along with guerillas, counter-insurgency operations, and other lower-level elements of conflict.

I was hoping that, at least for the active portion of this RP as the Maghreb catches up with West Africa, he'd delegate Morocco to another of the League players, but if you're game for it, that would work out just as well.

Really this is me realizing that I've never fought a ground war, ever, and that I might as well get in the practise.

I'm a bit confused as to when action in the Maghreb is taking place, and whether it is entirely reasonable for there to be about 15,000 Hindustani armored troops in Senegal at the same time. The follow-up Hindustani fleet was, I think, only about a week behind the force that participated in the Battle of Cap Vert, but that force itself only brought with it a few thousand marines and commandos.

At least two months passed without major INA forces going anywhere, before the UDF decided that sending 150,000 troops to West Africa wasn't really an option and sent the bulk of that force to Eritrea and the rest of it to Zanzibar. And assuming that the UDF managed to transport one brigade at a time, it would have taken close to a month and a half to get the whole 4th Division from India to Senegal.

Timing troubles in this area of AMW are significant, to say the least. At the very end of May-start of June, Spain invaded Portugal and Gibraltar, while simultaneously France launched an invasion of ECOWAS.

Once Portugal had been secured (I'm assuming a few weeks at least for this), Spain added its SPADEC contingent to a Moroccan invasion of the Western Sahara, which kept going over the border into Mauritania. Within the first week of that invasion, Spanish artillery flattened the refugee camps of the SADR, only to be intercepted as they returned to base by Saharawi mechanized forces.

That is where we are now.... in the rest of West Africa, the French are still advancing to secure more territory, while League and Indian vessels are making preparations to meet, the former still bloodied from a recent clash with Anglo-Australasian ships and the latter dealing with the large distances separating West Africa from the Subcontinent. Peace negotiations proceed in London, the Supreme War Soviet is still dedicated to the war against the League, Washington remains aloof from current goings-on.

Its a bad place to be, unfortunately, lagging much too far behind. But on the other hand, its not so large a theatre that events here would change what has occured in the wider world, so hopefully things here can catch up. Other than a couple of battles which need to take place, we've a general idea of how things are going to play out: the Spanish are going to withdraw SPADEC to fortify the home front, the Algerians are going to devote their offensive capacity in an assault on Mali, then to a buildup facing Libya, and the French dont see this particular front as important enough to merit military assets aside from a few fighter aircraft, preferring to push political and unconventional operations via Mauritania's exiled President Taya and the Scarlet Pimpernel. So once a few specifics have been ironed out, things ought be rather speedy in moving ahead to the 'present day'.

The two key events to be seen here will involve the role of the Combine in West Africa and the Moroccans in the Holy League. As the major backer of the Saharawi, the Combine has mustered a not-insignificant force which it will deploy to the Western Sahara shortly after the Indian-League naval battle is resolved. If this force is successful, then the Indian beacheads in Namibia and Senegal will be joined by a third belonging to the Armandians, which may influence other events such as ECOWAS determination to fight on, SWS hostilities towards North Sienna, USQ entry into the theatre, etc. Combine failure here will likely knock them back from further military involvement in Africa, barring the arrival of Tsaris divisions in Ethiopia.

Morocco is perhaps more significant, and deserves a lot more attention than it seems to have recieved, due to the complexity it adds to League policies in Africa. While France might be happy with a ceasefire after conquering back a few colonies, the Moroccan throne has based much of its legitimacy on maintaining control of the Western Sahara, as well as having its own vision of a 'Greater Morocco' which includes a swathe of what is now Roycelandian Algeria, as well as Western Sahara and Mauritania (even, at its greatest extent, a few pieces of Senegal and Spain's two African enclaves). The Moroccans have a slew of not-so-effective conscripts, but they also have access to a modern military core, loyal to the Sultan and with modern Elian equipment and training. They are not quite an equal to France or Spain, but they are far from a vassal state, and have recently joined the exclusive club of nuclear-armed states. Unless the Armandians are resoundingly successful upon their arrival, Morocco holds the upper hand in this theatre, and has no reason to give up its own desires for the sake of the French without getting something of equal or greater value in return. If what played out in Dark Continent was the be-all and end-all of reaching a ceasefire, than I expect that process to fail, regardless of the private wishes of Versailles or the SWS, as neither the Saharawi nor the Moroccans are going to back down from active warfare, and as long as they continue fighting then the remaining powers will likely have trouble slowing things down themselves.

At this point, I see two likely courses of action. The first is that Morocco recieves a large concession from the League, in the form of Algerian territory, to allow the Sultan to save face after withdrawing from all or part of the Western Sahara (back behind the berm, most likely). The second is a break between Morocco and the League over policies in Africa, with Rabat either going it alone (possible, certainly, if difficult) or doing as it has in RL and sidling up to Washington to paint itself as a friend in the region, united with Quinntonia in its opposition to Communist encroachment in Africa (such as the Polisario Front, of course).

But I've gone way off topic, so I'd probably best stop for now.

Ah, it is complicated, isn' it.

How long do we assume that the naval confrontation in the Atlantic goes on? From a Soviet perspective an awful lot happens in the immediate aftermath of that show-down, with significant climb-downs from Calcutta and a shift towards a different take on War Communism at least as it relates to West Africa.

Even during the late stages of the battle, Calcutta is pretty much deciding to pull back, and afterwards doesn't delay in talking to Versailles, but then before anything concrete actually happens we have to muster new resources in India and ship them to Senegal, so I suppose on the ground in West Africa we've breathing room in that respect at least.

Ah, I see. I'll go back and amend my post accordingly.

As for the Battle off Cap Vert (or thereabouts), I'd imagine that it probably took two or three days to resolve, between the Russian submarine attacks, the air engagement, and the final surface clash, perhaps longer if we choose to include the Soviet submarine blockade of Nigeria, which probably went on for a few days after the main engagement between the Ortiagon wolfpack and the Russian-supplied Nigerian navy.

There is a large force of Armandian ships, including aircraft carriers, at this stage days away from the coast of Mauritania, and follow-on fleet of Soviet and Hindustani warships maybe a week behind that. Maybe the prospect of Armandian and Indian warships raiding up and down the coast of Western Sahara is more than Rabat is willing to risk in its bid for Mauritania.
Morocco is certainly a powerful nation by itself, and one not likely to be satisfied with the puppet status that the Holy League would perhaps like to impose on it, but I can see cause for the Moroccans to be alright with the idea of a cease-fire, just as the French are doubtless beginning to face major supply problems with their operations in the Maghreb. Of course, the Moroccans might still feel suitably protected by the damaged League fleet based out of the Canary Islands, and their own airforce is nothing to laugh at, so all the same I suppose Rabat could not be too concerned over the pro-ECOWAS side's naval superiority in the region.

Hmph. Well, let's hope NG comes back soon enough.

Also, I don't suppose it would be acceptable to deal with naval operations in the Mediterranean in the Lands of Sunset thread?

It seems an appropriate place for such things, at least in terms of what threads we've got at the moment. If there's another Suez crisis, that may take things a bit too far afield, but the cut and thrust of submarine raiding and supply convoys would fit well.