Koolgardie
13-08-2007, 06:39
Ion Storm!
..this is Troy McCluer of CNN. We interrupt your regularly scheduled programs for an emergency press conference called by the University of Koolgardie Solar Astrophysics Institute where prominent Astronomer and expert on our Sun, Liam Graff will be giving a major press conference regarding what is widely believed to be the largest solar flare ever detected. It looks like Dr, Graff is ready to start so we'll go directly to him.
______________________________________________________________
Dr. Liam Graff: Good evening ladies and gentlemen. Let me welcome you to our facility.
The Koolgardie Institute of Solar Astrophysics is one of the worlds leading Solar observatories and centers of study of our sun. We have a staff of 400 scientists, technicians and engineers and over 2400 world wide associates. Our papers have appeared in Astronomy & Astrophysics, the Astrophysical Journal, Journal of European Astrophysics, Science and a host of other publications. We cooperate with a number of national and international bodies like the International Astronomical Union, you probably remember that they are the guys who demoted Pluto, the US, Russia, China, Japan and others. The crowning jewel in our cap is our part in the Solar-X mission with Japan and the United States which gives us real time an what is happening on the sun.
Now, before anyone gets any strange ideas, NO. The Sun is not going nova.
What it is about to do is going to be rude an possibly costly so that is why we called this press conference.
About two weeks ago we watched as a prominence began to build in the sun's chromosphere. We expected it to pop and make a solar flare at any time but for some inexplicable reason, this prominence did not rupture until early today at 22:09 GMT.
Solar Flares (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_flares) are usually nothing to get excited about. However, this one is going to be the second most powerful flare on record.
The reason that I am giving this press conference is that I predicted this one in a paper that I wrote last year.
Our sun runs in many complex cycles: the sunspot cycle, magnetosphere cycle and so on. The cycle that I predicted runs every 26 years and just under 4 months. It seems that an overpressure builds up in the photosphere and it simply gets bigger and bigger and bigger until the magnetic forces that hold it in check simply can not contain it any longer.
Corresponding to this 26 year cycle, the Northeast Blackout of 2003 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeast_Blackout_of_2003) and the New York City blackout of 1977 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New York_City_blackout_of_1977). These super flares, while very rare, and now documented to be periodic, are quite destructive.
The reason that we are so concerned about flare is that this time, the Ozone layer and ionosphere aren't nearly what they used to be. We expect that terrestrial effects of this flare will be more pronounced than ever.
Tomorrow starting at about 10:00am British Londonium time, please excuse the conceit, I was born there, the earths extended atmosphere will be hit by a tidal wave of hot solar plasma. It will last anywhere between forty-five minutes to 2 hours.
Earth orbit is where things will be very scary: any satellite on the bright side of the earth stand a good chance of being destroyed unless their electronics are shut down or set to a safe/standby mode. Any manned space craft in the plasma will receive a lethal dose of radiation within 20 minutes. Unless we act very quickly, almost a trillion dollars worth of satellites owned and operated by government or research institution's like us will simply be gone after an hour.
On earth, levels of static electricity in the atmosphere will accumulate to dangerous levels. Very dangerous lightning storms may result from those conditions. The auroral zone will extend as far down as the tropics and retreat slowly back to its normal latitudes over the next several weeks.
There is potential for very serious disruptions in long range communications. Power companies may experience huge spikes or surges across their grids. Radars will be virtually nonfunctional North or South of the 30 degree latitude and computers on aircraft could possibly fail.
In summary, it is my opinion that we face a very serious situation tomorrow and our best plan is to stop at 10:00am, turn off all of our toys and read a good book until noon.
Questions?
"Lane Bryant, Sky News: has the UN or other labs working in solar astrophysics issued any warnings?"
Graff: "Well- we ARE the biggest game in town. We are associated with all of the worlds major solar labs and observatories and they are all backing our warning so I would have to say yes. As for the UN, who knows what they do."
"Lee Chen, China Daily: What can the worlds governments and industries do to save their satellites?
Graff: "We have been using satellites for a very long time and we know that bad space weather is to be expected. All modern satellites have something called a safe mode which simply means that it is on standby for a programmed length of time. If not, it is just sitting there looking and listening with its sensors and antenna. When the hot, energetic plasma of the solar plasma hits those antenna and sensors, its like being struck by lightning."
"Rose Kramer, with Science Dr. Graff: Where are you going to hang your Nobel Prize for Physics?"
Graff laughing, "I'll just be satisfied getting past tomorrow's crisis without having the worlds satellite industry crippled....
_______________________________________________________
There you have it. The second worse solar flare since this sort of thing has been kept track of, will arrive tomorrow at 1000 am British-Londonium time and cause all sorts of problems for electricity and electronics.
I've just received word that our network that we will be down until it is safe to operate satellites and I wouldn't be surprised if a great many other networks will respond in similar fashion. Most broadcast companies rent time on satellites and if the owner shuts it down then there is nothing for us to do.
I've also received word that the European Space Agency and NASA have issued a joint press release- they are cutting short a shuttle mission and battening down space station Freedom for the storm.
Stay with us on CNN for more on this story as it develops. I don't know about you but my cellphone and lap top will be turned of tomorrow morning...
..this is Troy McCluer of CNN. We interrupt your regularly scheduled programs for an emergency press conference called by the University of Koolgardie Solar Astrophysics Institute where prominent Astronomer and expert on our Sun, Liam Graff will be giving a major press conference regarding what is widely believed to be the largest solar flare ever detected. It looks like Dr, Graff is ready to start so we'll go directly to him.
______________________________________________________________
Dr. Liam Graff: Good evening ladies and gentlemen. Let me welcome you to our facility.
The Koolgardie Institute of Solar Astrophysics is one of the worlds leading Solar observatories and centers of study of our sun. We have a staff of 400 scientists, technicians and engineers and over 2400 world wide associates. Our papers have appeared in Astronomy & Astrophysics, the Astrophysical Journal, Journal of European Astrophysics, Science and a host of other publications. We cooperate with a number of national and international bodies like the International Astronomical Union, you probably remember that they are the guys who demoted Pluto, the US, Russia, China, Japan and others. The crowning jewel in our cap is our part in the Solar-X mission with Japan and the United States which gives us real time an what is happening on the sun.
Now, before anyone gets any strange ideas, NO. The Sun is not going nova.
What it is about to do is going to be rude an possibly costly so that is why we called this press conference.
About two weeks ago we watched as a prominence began to build in the sun's chromosphere. We expected it to pop and make a solar flare at any time but for some inexplicable reason, this prominence did not rupture until early today at 22:09 GMT.
Solar Flares (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_flares) are usually nothing to get excited about. However, this one is going to be the second most powerful flare on record.
The reason that I am giving this press conference is that I predicted this one in a paper that I wrote last year.
Our sun runs in many complex cycles: the sunspot cycle, magnetosphere cycle and so on. The cycle that I predicted runs every 26 years and just under 4 months. It seems that an overpressure builds up in the photosphere and it simply gets bigger and bigger and bigger until the magnetic forces that hold it in check simply can not contain it any longer.
Corresponding to this 26 year cycle, the Northeast Blackout of 2003 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northeast_Blackout_of_2003) and the New York City blackout of 1977 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New York_City_blackout_of_1977). These super flares, while very rare, and now documented to be periodic, are quite destructive.
The reason that we are so concerned about flare is that this time, the Ozone layer and ionosphere aren't nearly what they used to be. We expect that terrestrial effects of this flare will be more pronounced than ever.
Tomorrow starting at about 10:00am British Londonium time, please excuse the conceit, I was born there, the earths extended atmosphere will be hit by a tidal wave of hot solar plasma. It will last anywhere between forty-five minutes to 2 hours.
Earth orbit is where things will be very scary: any satellite on the bright side of the earth stand a good chance of being destroyed unless their electronics are shut down or set to a safe/standby mode. Any manned space craft in the plasma will receive a lethal dose of radiation within 20 minutes. Unless we act very quickly, almost a trillion dollars worth of satellites owned and operated by government or research institution's like us will simply be gone after an hour.
On earth, levels of static electricity in the atmosphere will accumulate to dangerous levels. Very dangerous lightning storms may result from those conditions. The auroral zone will extend as far down as the tropics and retreat slowly back to its normal latitudes over the next several weeks.
There is potential for very serious disruptions in long range communications. Power companies may experience huge spikes or surges across their grids. Radars will be virtually nonfunctional North or South of the 30 degree latitude and computers on aircraft could possibly fail.
In summary, it is my opinion that we face a very serious situation tomorrow and our best plan is to stop at 10:00am, turn off all of our toys and read a good book until noon.
Questions?
"Lane Bryant, Sky News: has the UN or other labs working in solar astrophysics issued any warnings?"
Graff: "Well- we ARE the biggest game in town. We are associated with all of the worlds major solar labs and observatories and they are all backing our warning so I would have to say yes. As for the UN, who knows what they do."
"Lee Chen, China Daily: What can the worlds governments and industries do to save their satellites?
Graff: "We have been using satellites for a very long time and we know that bad space weather is to be expected. All modern satellites have something called a safe mode which simply means that it is on standby for a programmed length of time. If not, it is just sitting there looking and listening with its sensors and antenna. When the hot, energetic plasma of the solar plasma hits those antenna and sensors, its like being struck by lightning."
"Rose Kramer, with Science Dr. Graff: Where are you going to hang your Nobel Prize for Physics?"
Graff laughing, "I'll just be satisfied getting past tomorrow's crisis without having the worlds satellite industry crippled....
_______________________________________________________
There you have it. The second worse solar flare since this sort of thing has been kept track of, will arrive tomorrow at 1000 am British-Londonium time and cause all sorts of problems for electricity and electronics.
I've just received word that our network that we will be down until it is safe to operate satellites and I wouldn't be surprised if a great many other networks will respond in similar fashion. Most broadcast companies rent time on satellites and if the owner shuts it down then there is nothing for us to do.
I've also received word that the European Space Agency and NASA have issued a joint press release- they are cutting short a shuttle mission and battening down space station Freedom for the storm.
Stay with us on CNN for more on this story as it develops. I don't know about you but my cellphone and lap top will be turned of tomorrow morning...