NationStates Jolt Archive

United States of America

Recent History: The current President is James M. Cox, a democrat who won re-election in 1924 after the Democratic congress passed the Social Security Act. The United States has not fought a declared war since the Spanish-American war, but a recent Second Mexican War involved United States troops entering Mexico to install a friendly government.

United States Military, 1925

US Navy and Coast Guard and Merchant Marine 1925

16 battleships (8 points, not yet upgraded to 5.5)
(14 inch guns) (game rating: 4-5-3-5) New Mexico, Mississippi, Idaho, Tennessee,
(16 inch guns)(game rating 5-5-3-5)
Colorado, Maryland, Washington, West Virginia, South Dakota,
(16 inch guns)(game rating 6-6-4-5) Montana, North Carolina, Indiana, Massachusetts, (41,000 ton warships)
16 inch guns)(game rating 4-3-6-5) Saratoga, Lexington, Bunker Hill, Yorktown
old battleships (1 point)
(14 inch guns) (game rating 4-4-3-5) Nevada, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Arizona

20 Heavy cruisers (2 points, not yet upgraded to 5.5)
(8 inch guns)(game rating 1-1-7-5) Rochester, Brooklyn, Pittsburgh, Huntington, San Diego, Pueblo, Frederick, Huron, Memphis, Seattle, Charlotte, Missoula, Chicago, Olympia, Columbia, Minneapolis, St. Louis, Charleston, Pensacola, Salt Lake City,
25 Light cruisers (2.5 points, not yet upgraded to 5.5)
(6 inch guns)(game rating 1-0-7-5)
Omaha, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Raleigh, Detroit, Richmond, Birmingham, Salem, Concord, Trenton, Marblehead, Cleveland, Albany, Philadelphia, Savannah, Nashville, Phoenix, Boise, Honolulu, Helena, Scanton, Atlanta, Juneau, San Juan, San Pedro

Plus
2 transport units
15 destroyer flotillas (tech 5)
8 US Coast Guard escort flotillas (tech 5)
1 Gunboat flotilla
5 long range submarine flotillas (tech 5)
CVL Langley, Curtis
CV (fleet carriers) Ranger, Hornet, Wasp, Constitution, Constellation, Bon Homme Richard, (0-1-6-5, air rating 3)
(15.1 points)

Naval Yards: (9 points)
Philadelphia, Portsmouth, Norfolk, Mare Island (San Fransisco), Bremerton (Seattle), Charleston, Pearl Harbor, Cavite (Philippines), Papeete (Tahiti)
Naval Bases: (6.5 points)
Boston, Brooklyn, Key West, Pensacola, New Orleans, Guantanamo Bay, Roosevelt Roads (Puerto Rico), Colon (Panama), Panama City (Panama), San Diego, San Pedro (Los Angeles), Reykevik (Iceland), Pago Pago (American Samoa), Dutch Harbor (Aleutian Islands)

US Navy Reserve (6 points)
10 light transport units (.5 points)

placed in reserve (mothballs)
5 dreadnoughts (12 inch guns)North Dakota, Florida, Utah, Wyoming, Arkansas, 14 minesweeper flotillas,

US Merchant Marine
12 Ocean Liner units
329 merchant shipping units (30 tankers, remainder bulk shipping)

Total: 48.6 points

US Army, National Guard and Marine Corps 1925
US Army (Regulars) 268,000 men (13 points)
2 cavalry divisions (1st and 2nd), 8 garrison units (1st – 6th infantry divisions, Hawaiian division, Philippine division), 8 coast defense brigades, 5 light infantry brigades, 4 motorized infantry divisions, 1 armored brigade

10 Fortresses (Manila, Pearl Harbor, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle, Norfolk, Panama City, Colon, San Diego, New York City) (10 points)

US Army National Guard 460,000 men (10.25 points)
8 motorized infantry corps, 2 cavalry divisions, 15 coast defense brigades

US Marine Corps (5.5 points)
10 Marine Brigades, 1 assault engineer brigade

38.75 points

US Air Forces 1925

US Army Air Corps (10.7 points)
10 Air Depots, 6 light bomber, 4 heavy bombers, 6 medium bomber units, 16 fighter units,

US Naval Air Service (7.8 points)
7 Air depots, 7 flying boat units, 8 naval bombers

Marine Corps (.1 points)
1 light bomber unit

Total: 18.6 points

GRAND TOTAL: 105.95 points of military.

reserved for economy

Political Events, 1920

Charles Evans Hughes, the heavily-moustached former governor of New York, comes under pressure from some Republicans not to run for re-election. The Republican Party suffers deep divisions, and the Bloody Summer of 1919 has cast a shadow over the Hughes Presidency. Additionally, the Republicans have had 20 years in the White House, and many Americans simply want a change.

Facing him is Governor James M. Cox of Ohio, who failed to win the Election of 1916. Facing no serious challenges in the Primaries, Cox launches a campaign based on increased internationalism, moderate labor reform, and "no more Mexicos." His running mate is Al Smith, the new Governor of New York.

After a tough election season, Cox sweeps into the White House with a comfortable majority in the Electoral College, and Democrats retain control of both houses of Congress.

Meanwhile, FDR takes over as Governor of New York.

(And Woodrow Wilson stays the President of (Yale or Harvard can't remember) meeting with his old AUgusta baseball buddies from time to time before his death.)

Spain is curious if it may get some copies on labor laws in the United States. This is sent secretly mostly because Spain is new to the Republican process and trying to tie it into a culturally conservative enviroment is tough.

SIC:

The Republic of China approaches the USA about perhaps restarting aid that was suspended under the Hughes Administration. The KMT explain that they have a land reform program and various other kinds of social services to pursue, and it is proving quite expensive to maintain those programs at home and stave off Communist/Socialist Agitation and the threat of foreign invasion all at once.

They also indicate that should the USA restart aid, US Aircraft manufacturers would possibly benefit from the RoC.

SIC:

The Republic of China approaches the USA about perhaps restarting aid that was suspended under the Hughes Administration. The KMT explain that they have a land reform program and various other kinds of social services to pursue, and it is proving quite expensive to maintain those programs at home and stave off Communist/Socialist Agitation and the threat of foreign invasion all at once.

They also indicate that should the USA restart aid, US Aircraft manufacturers would possibly benefit from the RoC.

The Republic of China is informed that the United States might be able to give it help-- provided that RoC uses the aid to build police units.

OOC: US doesn't want RoC to collapse and give the japanese a chance

SIC:

The RoC agrees to the provisions.

SIC:
The British government quietly approachs the Americans, with a proposal concerning Antarctica. It is the position of His Majesty's Government that the previous Liberal government was perhaps overzealous in its claiming of the entire southern continent. Prime Minister Law informs the Americans that as of 1920, the United Kingdom would not be opposed to renewed discourse concerning Antarctica.

In 1921, after Brazil agrees to the Natal Economic Agreement, the United States formally proposes the American Trade League. Meant to increase prosperity across the Americas, the American Trade League is offered to all American Nations with the exception of European imperial powers.

American Trade League Charter (simplified, assume the real thing is more complicated)

1. The members of the American Trade League agree to cooperate in order to foster prosperity among said members, by:
i. Lowering tariffs to aid mutually beneficial trade;
ii. Creating and maintaining transportation links, terrestrial and maritime, between the members of the American Trade League;
iii. Upholding the laws of the sea and international law in regards to transportation;
iv. Standardizing banking procedures among members of the American Trade League;
v. When possible, standardizing regulations and laws regarding trade in the ATL countries;
vi. Acting in good faith at all times in financial dealings with other ATL nations.
2. In times of exceptional need, any of the above clauses may be suspended by any nation for a period of up to ten (10) years
3. The American Trade League charter may be amended by a majority vote, unless either the United States or Brazil decides to exercise a veto option, in which case amendments may be carried only by a three-quarters vote. If both Brazil and the United States exercise a veto, the amendment cannot pass.
4. Any nation may be expelled from or admitted to the ATL with a two-thirds vote of all ATL nations.

Miklos Horthy while he was the Prime Minister of the EEE in 1922, seeing the mechanitions in process for the spliting of Hungary from the EEE and the technological advancement undergoing in many other nations because of the improvement in infrastructure, that of phone lines.

Being having the budget from taken out of his control for a while and the almost certain split upcoming Miklos wishing to see Hungary retain it's place on the leading edge of technology approaches have been made by government officials loyal to Miklos to ask for a loan of 6 points a year for 3 years 1922,1923 and 1924 to cover the cost off upgrading the communications, ie telephone, infrastructure in the nation.

Hungary offers to pay substantial interest a total of 24 points which is to result in it all being payed back by the end of 1930.

Miklos Horthy while he was the Prime Minister of the EEE in 1922, seeing the mechanitions in process for the spliting of Hungary from the EEE and the technological advancement undergoing in many other nations because of the improvement in infrastructure, that of phone lines.

Being having the budget from taken out of his control for a while and the almost certain split upcoming Miklos wishing to see Hungary retain it's place on the leading edge of technology approaches have been made by government officials loyal to Miklos to ask for a loan of 6 points a year for 3 years 1922,1923 and 1924 to cover the cost off upgrading the communications, ie telephone, infrastructure in the nation.

Hungary offers to pay substantial interest a total of 24 points which is to result in it all being payed back by the end of 1930.

The United States advises Mr. Miklos to cut back on military spending in order to afford telephone lines. Since Hungary is a prosperous nation, developement loans for so small an amount should be unnecessary.

1920 United States Build
Austerity budget
107 production + 59 resources + 12.5 oil + 15 coal + 2 tourism + 21.4
food + 20.6 shipping + 1.2 passenger liners + 5 colonial + 4 Filipino
Production + Filipino food exports 1 = 246.7 points

US corruption penalty 3%

Total US budget 239.59 points

Military Maintenance – 110.15 points
Level 2 social services for US and US territories – 23.42 points
Intelligence service – 5 points
Total maintenance --- 138.07 points

Available for builds – 101.02 points

Military builds
Convert CLT Langley, Curtis to CVL-2
55 Shipping Units-55
1 assault engineer brigade (for the marines)-2

Civil engineering projects
Alaskan Railroad (running parallel to Alcan Highway) 20 points (year 3 of 5)
Intercoastal Waterway (Maine to Texas) 10 points (year 2 of 20)
PanAmerican highway (San Antonio, Texas to Santiago, Chile) 10 points
(year 2 of 10)

US Growth 1919
Budget 246 + unaccounted production 321 = 567 - corruption penalty 2%
= 550 x 4% growth modifier = 22

Population growth US 1919 is 2 million (mostly from immigration and
natural increase), so 2 production centers to be added 1920

20 remaining / 4 = 5 for overseas export
US investors look south for new investment opportunities. Cuba gets
one production center, and Venezuela and Mexico each get two.

1921 United States Build-CORRECTED
Cut Spending Budget
198 production + 50 resources + 12.5 oil + 15 coal + 2 tourism + 8.28
food + 30.6 shipping + 1.2 passenger liners + 5 colonial + 4 Filipino
Production + Filipino food exports 1 = 327.58 points

US corruption penalty 3%
Depression Penalty 2%
Flood Penalty 10%

Total US budget 280.25 points

Military Maintenance – 110.65 points
Level 2 social services for US and US territories – 23.42 points
Intelligence service – 5 points
Total maintenance --- 131.07 points

Available for builds – 141.18 points

Flood Repair Projects
Repair 10 production centers-120
Emergency Aid-3

Civil engineering projects
Alaskan Railroad (running parallel to Alcan Highway) 20 points (year 4 of 5)
Intercoastal Waterway (Maine to Texas) 10 points (year 2 of 20)-ON HOLD
PanAmerican highway (San Antonio, Texas to Santiago, Chile) 10 points
(year 2 of 10)-ON HOLD

US Growth 1919
Budget 280 + unaccounted production 99 = 379 x 3% growth modifier = 11.37

Population growth US 1921 is 2 million (mostly from immigration and
natural increase), so 2 production centers to be added 1922

9 remaining / 4 = 2 for overseas export-1 each to Panama and Venezuela

1922 United States Build
Cut Spending Budget
222 production + 38 resources + 12.5 oil + 15 coal + 2 tourism + 8.28
food + 30.6 shipping + 1.2 passenger liners + 5 colonial + 4 Filipino
Production + Filipino food exports 1 = 339.58 points

US corruption penalty 3%
Depression Penalty 5%
Flood Penalty 10%

Total US budget 281.25 points

Military Maintenance – 110.65 points
Level 2 social services for US and US territories – 23.42 points
Intelligence service – 5 points
Total maintenance --- 131.07 points

Available for builds – 141.18 points

Flood Repair Projects
Emergency Aid-3

Military Spending
57 Shipping Units-57
Mapping Ocean Floors-2

Other Spending
Infrastructure upgrades for USA-21 (year 1/3)
- Ocultar texto citado -

Foreign Aid
KMT China-20
Infrastructure in Colombia (year 1/3)-3

Civil engineering projects
Alaskan Railroad (running parallel to Alcan Highway) 20 points (year 4 of 5)
Intercoastal Waterway (Maine to Texas) 10 points (year 4 of 20)
PanAmerican highway (San Antonio, Texas to Santiago, Chile) 10 points
(year 4 of 10)

US Growth 1921
Budget 141 + unaccounted production 222 = 363 x 3% growth modifier = 10.89

Population growth US 1921 is 2 million (mostly from immigration and
natural increase), so 2 production centers to be added 1923

8 remaining / 4 = 2 for overseas export-1 each to Mexico and Venezuela

1923 United States Build
Cut Spending Budget
226 production + 53 resources + 12.5 oil + 15 coal + 2 tourism + 19.8
food + 43 shipping + 1.2 passenger liners + 5 colonial + 4 Filipino
Production + Filipino food exports 1 = 382.58 points

US corruption penalty 3%
Depression Penalty 5%

Total US budget 352.47 points

Military Maintenance – 110.65 points
Level 2 social services for US and US territories – 23.42 points
Intelligence service – 5 points
Total maintenance --- 131.07 points

Available for builds – 221.4 points

Military Spending
147 Shipping Units-147
Mapping Ocean Floors-2

Other Spending
Infrastructure upgrades for USA-21 (year 2/3)

Foreign Aid
KMT China-10
Infrastructure in Colombia (year 2/3)-3

Civil engineering projects
Alaskan Railroad (running parallel to Alcan Highway) 20 points (year 5 of 5)
Intercoastal Waterway (Maine to Texas) 10 points (year 5 of 20)
PanAmerican highway (San Antonio, Texas to Santiago, Chile) 10 points
(year 5 of 10)

US Growth 1923
Budget 221 + unaccounted production 226 = 447 x 3% growth modifier = 13.41

Population growth US 1923 is 2 million (mostly from immigration and
natural increase), so 2 production centers to be added 1924

12 remaining / 4 = 3 for overseas export-2 to Mexico and 1 to Peru

1924 United States Build
Austerity Budget
230 production + 51 resources + 12.5 oil + 15 coal + 2 tourism + 19.8
food + 72.4 shipping + 1.2 passenger liners + 5 colonial + 4 Filipino
Production + Filipino food exports 1 = 413.9 points

US corruption penalty 3%
Depression Penalty 5%

Total US budget 381 points

Military Maintenance – 110.65 points
Level 2 social services for US and US territories – 23.42 points
(Level III goes into effect 1925)
Intelligence service – 5 points
Total maintenance --- 131.07 points

Available for builds – 250 points

Military Spending
68 shipping units-68
138 to Spend
2 marine brigades-4
4 heavy bombers-32
4 medium bombers-24
11 fighters-33
8 naval bombers-24
5 air depots-15

Other Spending
Infrastructure upgrades for USA-21 (year 3/3)

Foreign Aid
Infrastructure in Colombia (year 3/3)-3

Civil engineering projects
Intercoastal Waterway (Maine to Texas) 10 points (year 6 of 20)
PanAmerican highway (San Antonio, Texas to Santiago, Chile) 10 points
(year 6 of 10)

US Growth 1924
Budget 250 + unaccounted production 230 = 480 x 4% growth modifier = 19.02

Population growth US 1924 is 1 million (mostly from immigration and
natural increase), so 1 production centers to be added 1925

18 remaining / 4 = 4 for overseas export-1 to Peru, 1 to Russia, 1
to Siam, and 1 to Vietnam

Kaiser Wilhelm II expresses interest in visiting the US and meeting with the President as well as touring areas of the US that have a significant German population.

Kaiser Wilhelm II expresses interest in visiting the US and meeting with the President as well as touring areas of the US that have a significant German population.

The President would be glad to meet with the Kaiser, and of course the Kaiser is welcome to visit the United States.

OOC: would you like to post some fluff on their meeting?

The Kaiser is eager to meet with the President as well as tour several large cities with large German populations. The focus of his speeches are on Germany's moves towards democracy and its recent attempts to reconcile with the not so pleasent moments in its history.

1925 United States Build
Cut Spending: 115 production centers + 51 resources + 12.5 oil + 15
coal + 2 tourism + 19.8 food + 72.4 shipping + 1.2 passenger liners +
5 colonial + 5 Filipino
Production + Filipino food exports 1 = 643.9 points
After depression: 276.5
After corruption: 268.2

Military Maintenance – 105.95 points
Level 3 social services for US and US territories – 34.5 points
Intelligence service – 5 points

Available for builds – 122.75 points

Military Spending
Upgrade 4 battleships to 5.5-24
Upgrade 10 heavy cruisers to 5.5-20
2 tech 5.5 destroyers-20
2 tech 5,5 aircraft carriers-20 (year 1/3)
Armored Warfare (year 1/5)-5
Battleship research (1/4)-5

Foreign Aid
Aid to KMT-7

Other Spending
Studies in the Brazilian rain forest-10

Civil engineering projects
Intercoastal Waterway (Maine to Texas) 10 points (year 7 of 20)
PanAmerican highway (San Antonio, Texas to Santiago, Chile) 10 points
(year 7 of 10)

US Growth 1925
1 production center is sent to Colombia

1926 United States Build
Normal Spending: 115 production centers + 51 resources + 12.5 oil + 15
coal + 2 tourism + 19.8 food + 72.4 shipping + 1.2 passenger liners +
5 colonial + 5 Filipino Production + Filipino food exports 1 = 643.9 points
After depression: 322.45
After corruption: 312.77

Military Maintenance – 107.45 points
Level 4 social services for US and US territories – 60 points
Intelligence service – 5 points

Available for builds – 140 points

Military Spending
Upgrade 4 battleships to 5.5-24
Upgrade 10 heavy cruisers to 5.5-20
3 tech 5.5 destroyers-15
2 tech 5.5 aircraft carriers-10 (year 2/3)
2 tech 5.5 aircraft carriers-10 (year 1/3)
Armored warfare (year 2/5)-5
Battleship research (year 2/4)-5

Foreign Aid
Aid to KMT-7

Other Spending
Rural Electrification-5.75 (year 1/3)
4 dams-18

Civil engineering projects
Intercoastal Waterway (Maine to Texas) 5 points (year 8 of 20)
PanAmerican highway (San Antonio, Texas to Santiago, Chile) 5 points
(year 8 of 10)

US Growth 1926
1 production center is sent to Colombia

In the United States, Franklin Roosevelt, governor of New York, begins making his move to become President in 1928, when Cox will finish his second term. He proposes national unemployment insurance, food assistance for the needy, and most importantly, junior colleges to train workers for better jobs.

He also breaks Tammany Hall, which wins him considerable respect. Roosevelt also calls for the repeal of Prohibition, hoping it will end the growing strength of the Syndicates (Mafia, but its not called that yet).

Many in the Democrat dominated House and Senate, well aware that 1926 is an election year, see his plan as a way to safe their jobs as well. Republicans, well aware that they might just lose on this one, decide that if Congress restricts immigration to a manageable level, they can live with the Roosevelt Program. They feel that immigrants and their children always vote Democratic anyway, and see restricting immigration as a long term investment in reducing Democratic strength.

Meanwhile, Herbert Hoover (Republican) decides to run again as his work heading the American Red Cross continues to win him respect from Americans.

In more sensational news, the new head of the BOI (early name for FBI), J. Edgar Hoover is publically humiliated when Socialist Chicago and New York papers run stories, with pictures, of him in drag with his boyfriend in a hotel in Vermont. The story is rapidly picked up by main stream papers and his suicide soon after is no surprise to anyone. The head of the US Marshal's Service, and the head of the Secret Service both make moves to take over the troubled agency, which has lost 2 heads in 3 years (previous FBI chief resigned under financial scandal)

ooc
Roosevelt wants US to have level 4 social services

FDR, as he was elected Governor of New York in 1920, does not take a vacation that results in his catching polio. Thus, he is not in a wheelchair in this timeline.

Hoover hated the Socialists and was a leading figure in the Palmer raids in real life, and would have been a hated man in this timeline as well.

Plus I really hate J Edgar Hoover.

OOC: If you look, the US gets level IV social services in 1926 anyway.

OOC: If you look, the US gets level IV social services in 1926 anyway.

ooc
written to give you historical basis, and so I could account for Hoover, FDR not being crippled, and give you an excuse for why Cox hasn't been impeached yet

August 1925: The French Ambassador to the United States inquires whether the United States plans to push for a further world wide reduction in warships when the Washington Naval Treaty is renegotiated in 1930? He also inquires whether the US plans to once again push for giving Germany special treatment, particularly when there have been “such dramatic and threatening changes to the European balance of power” (ooc: the US when an NPC allowed Germany more ships then could be justified in the hope that the number would be reduced at a future naval conference, in effect giving Germany special treatment to the Entente's annoyance)?

Defense Minister Pilsudski, acting of his own accord while the President is busy with negotiations relating to the Warsaw Pact, releases a French telegram to the Polish press, and persuades the Polish Ambassadors to the US, UK, and Hungary to show it to government officials there. The telegram, printed in full, reads as follows:

France warns Poland that if required Russia will invade Germany by Hungary in order to honor its Alliance with France and Poland would be wise not to have a mutual defense treaty with Hungary for that reason.

The Polish Ambassador to Washington urges the United States to take action to stop world powers from invading nations that openly declare their intended neutrality. While so far only Hungary is on the Russian list of "convenient shortcuts," if you will, Poland's NAP with Russia will expire in two years' time, and, while Czarina Anastasia signed a treaty of friendship and guarantee of independence, she will not protect us from her own men, if it offers a faster route to Berlin. Other small nations, not adequately able to prepare themselves, like the states of the Baltic Union, or Bulgaria, other attendees to this conference, could find themselves victims of Russian convenience, if action is not taken.

After Russia denies any intention of invading a neutral territory, the United States declines to comment, although it does note that Poland's treaty with Russia runs out in 1935.

However, the American press laughs at France (for making foolish threats), Russia (for not straightening thing out with its French allies), and Poland (for being unable to count). Political cartoonists have a field day.

August 1925: The French Ambassador to the United States inquires whether the United States plans to push for a further world wide reduction in warships when the Washington Naval Treaty is renegotiated in 1930? He also inquires whether the US plans to once again push for giving Germany special treatment, particularly when there have been “such dramatic and threatening changes to the European balance of power” (ooc: the US when an NPC allowed Germany more ships then could be justified in the hope that the number would be reduced at a future naval conference, in effect giving Germany special treatment to the Entente's annoyance)?

The Ambassador is told that the United States is committed to the cause of world peace and act in peace's best interests at the Washington Naval Conference.

SPain finds the way European politics is going frightening, and once again ask the United States to recognize it's universal neutrality in the shape of Belgium. (This was denied in 1915, so they are trying it a decade later.)

The United States inquires if Spain has any alliances or mutual defense pacts outstanding at this time.

A single one, the Alliance of Seville for the mutal defense of France and Spain, and a Non-Aggresion Pact with Germany.

SECRET DISCUSSIONS: Spain explains that these two pacts are basically cancel out methods. Germany and France will go to war, and in all likelyhood the NAP and the AS will be used to allow Spain to remain out of any war. In truth Spain is a full neutral with relations that keep Spain at peace with it's two partners in Morocco. Spain had hoped to keep peace between France and Germany by being friends of both, but both seem to be irritated with Spain for this attempt. In truth unless German corps start invading the Pyrennes, Spain is not going to war. And since a German invasion of the Pyrennees would be an act of war and against Spanish neutrality, Spain would be obligated to defend itself anyways.

The United States refuses to recognize Spanish neutrality because Spain is involved in an alliance.

Secret: The United States advises Spain to drop the Alliance of Seville, as it does not contribute to Spanish security, and the non-aggression pact with Germany, as Germany is unlikely to recognize it unless it serves German interests.

Secret IC: THen what friends will SPain have left? Will the United States become the lord protector of SPain? And would that benefit Spain at all. It would make us a laughingstock. Germany will not attack Spain because we are a tipping point. France and Spain together equal German power. And throw Russia into the mix and we overwhelm it. Germany can not afford Spanish aggresion. Especcially with Great Britain starting to become cozy with the Entente.

Still Spain is most likely to remain at peace anyways. Also does not Belguim have an Alliance with Great Britain, and yet the world recognizes their neutrality. (Yes it does.)

Secret: The United States feels that if Spain does not fear German advances, then it has no reason to remain in an alliance with France.