NationStates Jolt Archive

(OOC: For those of you haven't worked it out, this is an introductory thread as I have just been accepted into the AMW community, replacing the player of Lebanon and Syria. For continuities sake, I am using the previous player's descriptions of the nation of Sabir as my starting point, but expanding and meddling with it to suit my wishes. This thread will primarily be a hopefully rather interesting political narrative that will set the future course of the nation.)


The 23 million people of the United Arab Republic of Sabir awoke to see flags at half-mast, and the pronouncement of a national month of mourning. It was one of those inevitable events that everyone knew would change everything, that would mark a turning point in the nation’s history, where no one could quite predict the new direction. So when lingering anticipation and anxiety was finally satisfied, not that much actually happened; not that much changed. When it was announced that the long ailing President Fayiz Sabir had succumbed to illness and passed away peacefully in his sleep, it was almost an anti-climax. Most of Damascus and beyond had been plotting for years on how to best enhance their own position after this occurred, and how to exploit the inevitable power vacuum that would be left in the wake of an heirless dictator. Now however, it was as though everyone in any position of influence had decided that in trying to press their own agenda, they risked fracturing the government so much that the state might collapse into anarchy, which suited nobody.

Prime Minister Hassan Ali Safar, widely regarded as a largely inept sycophant, called an immediate meeting of the Ministerial Council. After the customary, if slightly insincere eulogies to their deceased master, it was decided by a unanimous vote that the country should be placed in a state of national emergency, to prevent any civil unrest. Around the cabinet table (the 'throne' chair of the President left vacant out of respect) in the grandiose gilded halls of Republican Palace, few seemed willing to challenge Yasir Bakr, an older Alawite muslim in his fifties, who was head of the State Security Department and its sinister subsidiary, the General Intelligence Directorate. Moreover when President Sabir had decided to finally step down from his other position, Secretary-General of the United Arab People’s Party, Bakr had been appointed as his replacement furthering his power base. As perhaps Fayiz Sabir’s most loyal lieutenant, he had had effectively been doing the President’s day to day governing for the last two years, ruling through fear and coercion.

As the meeting dragged on, the agenda soon came to how a new President would be appointed, with the constitution giving them a ninety period to do this. Fayiz Sabir had not been helpful in this regard and since he had ordered the execution of his only son for treason, there was no immediately obvious candidate. In theory they were supposed to collectively agree to nominate a single candidate, who would then be put forward in a national referendum, and if he was rejected, choose another candidate and hold a new ballot. It was agreed that the Ministerial Council would hold a vote in exactly one month, to coincide with the ending of national mourning, with the national referendum to take place one week thereafter. In order to stand for the Presidential office, a candidate had to be a serving member of the Council, and had to have the endorsements of at least two members in order to be voted on by the entire council. Most sitting around the table, knew that Yasir Bakr would be standing, and with his power to arrest anyone more or less arbitrarily, it was likely he would be uncontested.

In Damascus, and Alleppo, and Beirut, and a hundred other Sabirian towns, citizens would soon find the streets guarded by Army conscripts, and paramilitary auxiliaries under strict orders to put down any political violence with force. However, with at least 20,000 dissidents in prison, and another several thousand more having been executed over the last few decades, the probability of revolution was seriously low. Overall, there was much genuine sorrow over the death of the national father. The notion of a paternal figure largely summed up the views of the populace. He had been a harsh, demanding father but most, both based on reality and propaganda, believed that he had indeed achieved great progress and had successfully staved off the radicalism of Marxism and Islamic fundamentalism. Prepared even to see his son executed, he was regarded as a tough but just leader, applying the same strict standards even to his own and only heir. Fayiz Sabir’s funeral was to be held quickly in accordance with the Islamic faith and whilst receiving full state honours, would not be a highly international occasion, with only Arab leaders invited to attend. Many millions of Sabiri citizens were expected to crowd the streets of the capital however.

The challenges facing the United Arab Republic of Sabir were several fold. The economy was stable but had made remarkably little progress in the last decade. Initially, when Fayiz Sabir had come to power through revolution the promise of Arab socialism had resulted in considerable industrial growth. However, with the economic liberalisations of the 1980s, many of these industries, inefficient and unable to compete without the high trade barriers, had simply failed. Now, Sabir’s exports were still predominantly primary products in the form of agricultural output and oil. High rates of inflation and interest combined with a rising tax burden in the last few years had resulted in little foreign investment. With the government budget increasingly used to fund the intelligence services, the massive unwieldy military, and corruption, education and health care were slipping down the list of priorities and worsening.

OOC:Interesting. One thing - see this (http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showthread.php?t=475523) thread. I haven't posted in a while, but I have a post in the oven and it deals with Sabir, and the Lebanon in particular.

EDIT:Problem solved, thread in question retconned.

The passing of Fayiz Sabir elicits relatively little in the way of a reaction from Mumbai, never eager to dabble in the politics of the Middle East. It is, without contention, Elian turf, from the tip of the Arabian Peninsula to the Lybian border, and Unioners are content to keep it that way. Fayiz Sabir's death is still regarded with interest by many Unioners, especially those with connections to the Kurdish independence movement, and there is a small hope that whoever succeedes the President might be slightly more accomodating to that particular ethnic group. There is also some speculation as to whether the Elians will end-up absorbing the UAR Sabir, should a successor not be found, or in the event that his rule is not accepted as legitimate. The apparent lack of upheval that generally accompanies a change of leadership in that particular piece of the earth is slightly disappointing to some, but there is a general consensus that a peaceful transition is preferable to a violent one. No matter what, the Sabiris will have the Elian military machine just across the border, and Mumbai doesn't see how Damascus could distance itself from Baghdad's policies even if it wanted to.

Tag! (More when I get back from work later...)

On receipt of the news of President Sabir's deaths, the President issues a statement expressing the sympathies of United Elias, and 'personal regret at the loss of a freind and distinguished statesman'. The news also sets in motion a series of measures that had long been in place. As per the Ministry of Defence's pre-determined response plan, both the Army's II and VIII Corps are placed on ready alert, meaning that within several days approximately 175,000 troops would be available for deployment into Sabir, should it become necessary, with several hundred thousand more available over the following weeks. Most in Baghdad are however pleasantly suprised to see that military action, at least immediately, would not be necessary to shore up the regime as there had been relatively little unrest.

However, that is not to say that Baghdad was entirely happy with the occurings in Damascus. Many, including the President and the Foreign Minister believed that the UAR's regime required a shake up, or at least a percieved shake up in order to stave off revolution in the long term. There is also a broad consensus among foreign policy advisors that Bakr would not be one to bring about reform. However, without an obvious alternative, Baghdad is forced to give him at least a partial endorsement. In reply to Damascus's invitation to attend Sabir's funeral, the Presidential Secretariat claims that due to his apparent bout of minor but nonetheless energy-sapping, not to mention unseasonal, flu, the President would be unable to travel in person but that UE would be represented at the event by the Vice-President. Keen followers of such things might interpret this as a willingness to slightly distance UE from Bakr, and also as a way of re-asserting President Elias's superior power and influence. It can be expected that after the new Sabiri President is officially selected, then UE will exert considerable pressure on him to make certain changes, and that due to UE's dominance in the region, he will be forced to make some concessions.

Damascus

The young, athletic figure of Aram Al Adar emerged from the taxicab, and after glancing around carefully, walked hastily into a dingle little café. Members of the ruling elite did not generally spend much time in this shabby quarter of the city and he felt slightly uncomfortable as he looked around for the person he was meeting. Aram unlike many in the top echelons of the regime was not and Alawite, and even more unusually he was actually from Damascus and not from a rural background. With an MA from the London School of Economics and a bachelor's degree in Arab history from Cairo University, he was also one of the most educated. He represented the old Sunni Damascene elite, a class that contained many of Syria's influential technocrats, intellectuals, and merchants. Only in his late twenties, he had already served a year in the Ministerial Council as Minister for Telecommunications.

After seeing the man he sought, he made his way to the very back of the establishment at sat down. The elderly man across the table, Dr. Mohammed Khaydar, removed a shisha pipe from his mouth and blew out the sweet, fruity smoke in a laboured breath. Khaydar was in some senses the opposite of Al Adar. He was an Alawite, from a modest family in Al Ladhiqiyah Province but through perseverance he had managed to go to university and study medicine. After a career in the Army Medical Corps, he had been appointed as Minister for Public Health by President Sabir. Along the way he had become a mentor to Aram, and was in part responsible for getting President Sabir to make him a Minister.

“Aram, thank you for coming. Did you change taxis a few time?”

“Yes, don’t worry.”

“You weren’t followed?”

“No, I don’t believe so.”

“Aram, it is important, did you do all the things I said?” Aram noticed that Khaydar was speaking in Syrian dialect rather than the Modern Standard Arabic that the business of state was normally conducted in.

“I wasn’t followed, don’t worry. Why are we meeting like this?”

Khaydar leaned forward, a look of anguish on his aged face “Do you know what will happen to my budget this year if Bakr becomes President? For the last five years nothing but cut after cut, and with him officially in power, it will be worse. You know what will happen, not just to the health budget, but to education, to infrastructure, to everything. Do you how that money will be spent? On watching us Aram, on watching you and I and the other members of the Ministerial council, not to mention the other 23 million people in this country. Bakr will ruin this country. He will repress us and take for himself until one day there are enough people who are angry enough, determined enough and brave enough to get rid of him. We will have a revolution within five years if he is in office, and then what happens to us, his loyal ministers? We get lynched as traitors.”

Al Adar nodded solemnly, “You do not need to explain it to me Mohammed. But I know as well as you do that there is no alternative. No one can stand against him. Even if we are caught talking like this…you know what happens…we all have a file. We will get a knock on the door. Tomorrow’s headlines ‘Ministers arrested for theft of government funds’ or ‘espionage’ or ‘conspiracy to harm the state’ or whatever takes his fancy.”

“There is a way; there is always a way Aram. First we find a way to discredit Bakr in some way then we need someone who will stand for the Presidency, who can get the two nominations and who will be popular amongst the people; someone who will get the support of the military and then we can take on the GID (General Intelligence Directorate).”

“That is easier said than done...Assuming it was possible, who did you have in mind? Who would possibly be willing to risk everything?”

“Well…you, actually.”

Aram’s head jolted in confusion, “Me? Are you mad? How could I possibly? I am the youngest on the council, I have very little government experience and apart from anything else, I don’t want to face a firing squad.”

The doctor leaned in, speaking softly so that he was only just audible above the sound pof Arab pop music blaring from a stereo in the café. “Aram, I know you want it. You have a beautiful wife and you will have children soon. Do you want them to grow up in a country that is a prison to its peoples, economically and politically backward?”

“I don’t want them to grow up fatherless either.”

“But they will, because sooner or later whether it’s the GID or the vengeful oppressed masses, they will come after you unless you step up and do something. You are young, handsome, energetic and charismatic, that is in your favour. The people will not want more old, bearded, overweight, Alawis like Bakr and me and the rest of us in charge, they want a change, and we need a change. You are educated, you are urban, you are a Sunni Arab and your wife is from Beirut. Also you have not been in this game long enough to have many enemies. Your only obstacle is Bakr and his cronies at the State Security Department.”

“Is that not a severe obstacle? Assuming for a moment I was willing to risk my life, how could I possibly accomplish what you are suggesting?”

“I have some idea of how. First we must remove Bakr.”

Aram looked around nervously, “and how exactly do we do that?”

“We can’t...At least not very easily. If we tried and failed we would no doubt both face very long painful deaths, and a similar fate might be met by our families as well. No, we cannot remove Bakr, but there are people who can, people who are not constrained by the laws of this land, and who have a history of meddling in our politics.”

“You are speaking of our Arab brethren? Of United Elias?”

“Indeed Aram, even the GID are no match for them. We all know it was they who blew the whistle on Rashid Sabir and the Al-Amn al-'Askari. To this day there are those in high offices of state who are cynical that the son of the President, not to mention some of his most loyal officers would conspire with the PKK against his father's state. Maybe our friends in Baghdad thought that Rashid was a sadist, which he was, that he was a moron, which he was, that he was unfit to lead this country after his father’s death, which he was. If that is so then they will take kindly to Bakr, but they would take well to you Aram. It is in their interest that this Republic maintains intact, that we do not fall to radicalism. I am sure that we could persuade them to remove Bakr.”

“You say remove, how? We discredit him? No…that would not work, he would have to be…he would have to be…No. No, I will not be the cause of that…”

The old doctor nodded before disagreeing, “Your sense of morality is refreshing Aram, and it is a quality that will be appreciated once you are President. As a doctor myself it is not easy for me either to consider such things, however, I in this instance I think that it is worth doing a little evil for the greater good of the nation.”

“But that is not the end of the matter, it is not that simple, the GID is more than one man. What would happen if such an untimely…incident…were to befall Bakr? Surely they would investigate it themselves, they are zealots and they would be enraged. It would be the perfect pretext for a purge and a further increase in general repression.”

“Yes. But I have a plan. We make it seem possible that it was the GID themselves who were responsible and have the Al-Amn al-'Askari investigate them. By using the agencies against one another, we can weaken them. Do not worry.”

“I have an appointment the day after tomorrow with the Elias Embassy. It’s only with a trade attaché to discuss the transfer of some technology regarding our plans to improve mobile phone infrastrcuture. This is an opportunity, no?”

The Doctor paused as though he was reflecting on a diagnosis. “Yes, that is good. The appointment has been in the diary for a while and it is to discuss a matter that is obviously part of your ministerial portfolio, so it will not look suspicious. Mention nothing until the end of the meeting, and then ask for a quick word with the Deputy Political Consul. Say it is regarding a personal matter…make up something…you want to invite him to a social function, anything. He will know this means you want to speak off the record.”

“Can he be trusted?”

“Yes he can be trusted…trusted to be absolutely pragmatic. If he likes the look of you, likes what you have to say, thinks he can work with you, he will pass on your requests to the highest office. If he takes a dislike, if he suspects your motives or if he simply doesn’t think you have a chance, he will most likely send a tape of your conversation to Bakr in return for just a good box of Roycelandian cigars. You will be executed, most of the people in your department will be imprisoned and it will be business as usual.”

Aram laughed nervously, “I better make a good impression then.”

Khaydar smiled, “Insh Allah.”

***

(UE, I’m just lifting the description of your embassy from what you posted old Sabir thread, hope that’s ok with you)

The black government sedan rolled through the elegant gatepost of the Elias Embassy compound, situated appropriately on Baghdad Street, between the Faruq Mosque and Tahrir square. The vehicle, a Mercedes of late 1980s vintage then halted outside the colonnaded main entrance and Aram Al Adar and his aide were greeted by an assistant.

They were then led to a lavish and rather too well air-conditioned conference room, where a few of the Embassy’s trade staff were already seated. The meeting, a routine discussion cantering on the legal and practical technicalities of the UAR’s efforts to upgrade its cellular phone network with UE sourced equipment, lasted an hour and a half, with considerable progress being made. As the meeting concluded, Aram quietly requested to speak with the Deputy Political Consul in private as he had been instructed by Khaydar. Meanwhile Aram’s aide was sent to wait in the lobby, which Aram thought might cause some suspicion. Whilst it was unlikely his most loyal staffer would be an informer for the GID, he could not be sure these days.

(Hm, the 'other' element, eh? It's all Prog/China/HL at the moment... but the ME could rock the boat. ...don't tip the boat over!)

Damascus

Upon his request, Minister Al Adar is shown into quite a small but well appointed office, with a window that if you leaned right up to one side had a view up to the city's almost thousand year old Citadel. Faysul Al Qasr, who had the job title of Deputy Political Consul was in reality was the Sabir station chief for the Federal Intelligence Bureau, a position that was arguably more influential than that of Ambassador.

The Minister is gestured to sit on a sofa in one corner of the room, and Al Qasr moves from behind his desk to an armchair closer to Aram. An aide then enters with a tray and a beautiful Sterling silver tea set and offers coffee and a plate of dates to the two men. Only once the aide has left do they begin to converse.

"Saalam Elaykum Mr. Al Adar. It is not a habit of mine to engage in pleasantries, that would be a wasting of our time. I think I know why you are here. I think I know what you want from us. Before you begin, let me assure you that the details our conversation shall remain in the strictest confidence, and will be limited to only those in senior positions who need to know, and will under no circumstances be relayed to anyone in your government."

Adar sat on the sofa, and realising as he raised the coffee cup to his mouth that his hand was shaking nervously he put it back on the table to avoid appearing to be anxious. Al Qasr's directness was somewhat off putting, but his promise of discretion, whilst not entirely convincing was reassuring nonetheless. "Well, seeing as you already know what I am asking, perhaps I should start by saying why you should help me. From your perspective, the fate of this country has a very direct effect on your national security. I do not need to tell you that the emergence of radicalism of any persuasion would be deeply troubling for United Elias, and that it is in your interest to do everything possible to prevent it. You also know, as well as I do, that a regime under Bakr's helm would eventually become so repressive that it will incite a revolution. As President..." Adar paused for a second, thinking to himself that it must have sounded laughable "...I would bring reform to this country, and ensure its continued stability. In part I recieved my education in United Elias, I understand your government's values; economic liberalism, political stability and international moderacy, and largely I adhere to them. I can guarantee that as President I would strengthen the ties between our nations, and together we can work towards a better future for all Arab peoples. We, the people of the Middle East must stand together in these uncertain times. However, I reckon that you would soon want to distance yourself from a Bakr controlled Sabir."

Al Qasr is receptive to Al Adar's proposal. He pauses medidatively, giving the Minister more than a few nervous seconds before there is a knock on the door. An aide is permitted to enter, and hands Al Qasr a manila file marked with the seal of the Federal Intelligence Bureau. Al Qasr opens it, hiding the contents from view before saying to Al Adar, "your file." There is silence for a good five minutes, as Al Qasr reviews its contents. "Your wife looks beautiful, you are a lucky man indeed...everything here seems to be in order, there are no troubling notations, I believe from an initial examination that you can be deemed politically reliable. However, I am but a functionary, and it is certainly not within my paygrade to make decisions such as this. I will pass this along to Baghdad, and I should imagine it will reach the President within a day or so. There will probably be a meeting of the Security Executive Committee to discuss this. We will be in contact after that. Your office will recieve a message from us; it will appear to be related to departmental business. The second and second last word of each paragraph will give you directions on where we should meet." Al Qasr then leaned over to his desk and pressed the intercom to instruct his assistant to show the Minister out.

Al Adar leaves the UE Embassy, encouraged at how his meeting with Al Qasr concluded. Entertaining thoughts of high office, now that it was perhaps possible, though he knew still extremely unlikely, he returned to his Ministerial office, and continued his normal shedule so as not to arouse the suspicions of the General Intelligence Directorate. For now we would simply have to be patient, as those in Baghdad discussed his fate and that of his nation.

The Federated States Of Austria withhold their opinions over the death of Fayiz Sabir and hope that Damascus could get back concerning several topics which include aid, investment, and trade deals. Any thing that could threaten your safty will also be held in the highest regard hopes that you will continue to be a beacon of logic for another century.

tag..

After three days, a facsimile is sent to Al Adar's office. It is decided that a further meeting is not required, and would not be worth the risk of arousing suspicions. Instead, using the basic code that Al Qasr had agreed with Al Adar, the message is a simple one, 'let it be done'.

Meanwhile, orders are sent out to members of the Federal Intelligence Bureau's extremely secretive Jihaz al Khas (Special Apparatus). A specialist team soon arrives in Damascus. With no official diplomatic cover and all having no traceable connection with the Elias government, these elite operatives wouldblend in seamlessly. If they were captured, they would be disavowed, if they were killed, no one would be notified. However, as the team plans on how to remove Bakr, they are confident that neither would happen.

Austria, not knowing why or how but certain of the fact what once again hopes the continued soverignty of The United Arab Republic will be respected and that Austria could always add its help to ensure the survival of its "beacon of logic".

(OOC: UAR, can you provide some details of Bakr's security arrangements so I can go into some detail of the FIBs plot to remove him?)

OOC: Bakr is protected as with all the high level Ministers of the UAR by both Republican Guard uniformed officers and agents from the General Intelligence Directorate's Section VII , both of which are under the control of Bakr's Department. The RG provide sentries for his home, a large official residence, as well as the Department of State Security where he works. At all times he is guarded by a team of between four and six close protection officers, although he will be accompanied by more during public appearances. All of these bodyguards are strictly vetted and are usually long serving GID agents. Bakr's appointment schedule is known only to these guards and a few officials within his private office, and he is known to frequently change or cancel engagements at last minute. When he moves around Damascus, he usually favours travelling in a small convoy of three to four black Mercedes G class 4x4s, which use police motorcycle outriders to move through traffic quickly. The route he uses for journeys that he makes routinely, such as from his residence to his office is often subject to change, and often a decoy convoy is used as well. As far as how much of this the UE agents would know, I would assume that they could find out most of the general details from paid informants within the government but it is highly unlikely that any of the small group privy to precise details of Bakr's schedule would be willing to divulge it.