NationStates Jolt Archive

Beijing, a year ago

The recent arrival of a French battleship and the laying of the foundations for a massive fort on Palawan had caused more than a few frightened Progressives. Unknown to the rest of the world, the biggest casualty was inside the corridors of China's political system. This single event had caused the foreign policy doctrine to undergo a complete 180 degree change. The Hu doctrine was out, and China was about to take on a more assertive and active world view.

Hu Jin Tao was one of Emperor Zhang's most trusted members of his inner circle. With a certain amount of influence on foreign policy and defence matters, he had piloted a form of isolationism aimed at providing stability to the chinese economy, supporting a trade delegate to the Holy League during their infancy while ignoring France's growing presence on Palawan.

On that fateful day however, Beijing was taken unprepared. Bills were signed, hastily increasing military spending while pursuing a more aggressive foreign policy.

Siberia, three weeks ago

80,000 fully mechanised infantry with supporting units arrive in Heilongjiang, with more than 120 fighter aircraft on standby at nearby airbases. The military build-up seems to have slowed in recent times however.

"The Phillippines are part of Roycelandia. We cannot concede that, and will fight to defend it to our last dying breath. However, we can bring in international observers to inspect a new election, and have a new election that will match the international standards of fairness. Additionally, Premier Aznar has promised me that he will provide a blanket amnesty for all NPA members willing to lay down their arms and take part in the political process. If they want the Phillippines to be Progressive, they can stop murdering people and can start voting."

"Additionally, Russia is willing to cooperate on any future...plans...China may have for Central Asia..."

OOC: Things have changed so much since this meeting I'm wondering the previous posts are still relevant.

"Roycelandia installed a puppet regime by murdering dozens of opposition leaders. We cannot allow what is in effect an invasion go unopposed."

"The offer of membership in the Holy League is declined. We will have no part in an organisation that is essentially a French lackey."

"Tell me, does Moscow have any sort of voice in the League or is she just a French servant? Did Moscow support the invasion of Gibraltar and the declaration of war on Britain?""

"President Aznar's regime has now twice been elected into office; the decision to implement an anti-corruption campaign is not in any way the work of Roycelandians. All officials executed by the government have been found to be corrupt through extensive investigation, and there have been members of all parties, including those within Aznar's own conservative ruling coalition, executed. There was no invasion; it's simply a nation cleaning up it's own affairs."

"The Holy League is a powerful economic and military alliance created to ensure the continuance of monarchy as a form of government. The French are certainly our loudest member, but they are in no way a lackey."

"I will not comment whether the Gibraltar invasion was or was not supported by Russia. The negotiations that occur between my nation and Spain are confidential, and officially our nation is neutral."

(OOC: Did you think you'd catch me that easily? I am not giving you an excuse to invade, my friend.)

"Finally, I ask China to consider it's current alliances. Sure, you may gain much in the short term by devouring our resources---but what of the world that follows? Who will stand by China when the knives of the Progressives turn on you? You are far closer ideologically to the Holy League than the Progressive Bloc, and you know it. A world ruled by a harmonious balance of the League and China would be a far more peaceful one than one torn apart by a conflict between the Progressives and the Chinese."

The Quinntonian BUMP!
WWJD
Amen.

[OOC: With global war heating up and Estenlands’ return, there are a few things relating to the northern theatre that I’d like to clear up.

Firstly, map issues... I’m trying to put together a sufficiently detailed map of northern Lyong in case maneuvers break out in the area. Hopefully that will be up soon.

Secondly, an economic query for the Russians:

The Strainist embargo on Russian goods (instituted after the Baltic invasions) may not be all that significant on a wide scale... a quarter-billion people is not an insignificant market, but League free trade provides a more secure consumer set, with similarly non-fatal consequences on the other side.
However, the embargo has major regional significance in the Russian Far East (if it wasn’t going to do anything, we wouldn’t have bothered with it after all).
Maritime trade is a complex business, involving extensive facilities to load and unload large container ships, service them, and distribute their cargo. In RL, Russia’s Pacific trade goes through container ports at Vladivostok, Vostochny, Nakhodka, Posiet, and Zarubino... in AMW, these ports are located in Lyong,
It might seem a simple matter to declare that a new container port would have been opened further north once Russian goods lost access to the Gochu leg of the Trans-Siberian, but such a solution faces a number of problems. To be commercially viable a container port must be of sufficient depth, and must be free of ice for most of the year. The first condition can be achieved with a sufficient investment of money, but with Lyong in place of Primorski-krai, the second condition cannot be met by Russia’s remaining Pacific territories... December to April, northern harbours suffer from pack ice confinement and associated hazards which close them down.

Until recently, Russia may have just shipped goods south through China, loading up at Dalian or somewhere on the East China Sea before heading out into the Pacific, but now Russian goods don’t seem to have Pacific access at all.

The matter becomes important as it relates to the tactical situation in theatre: aside from the expense of building new facilities, Russian opening of a new commercial port on the Pacific would see limited shipyard facilities occupied with production of icebreakers and heavy dredgers rather than military projects, while abandonment of Pacific markets in favour of European ones would possibly see expansion of east-to-west land transport infrastructure (?). Some detail on such developments would be appreciated.

Thirdly, again for the Russians, a question on naval facilities:
(We may have discussed this before, but I’ve been searching about in old threads with little success)

The fall of the Soviet Union ended the Russian lease of ice-free ports for its Pacific Fleet... obviously Russia didn’t just scuttle its Eastern ships, and so they must have been moved to new facilities somewhere... the question is, where? (And, how other regional facilities have been affected by such changes)

The following are the ones I’m familiar with:
Zavety Ilyicha (at Postavaya Bay): Facilities for maintenance of conventional and nuclear submarines.
Komsomolsk-na-Amure: Not a port, really, but the site of shipyards for light vessels, smaller submarines, Kamov helicopters, and Sukhoi aircraft parts. Its ships sail down the Amur river to reach the ocean, and in earlier years some larger projects were shipped to Bolshoi Kamen/Vladivostok for final assembly.


Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky (at Krasheninnikova Bay): Probably the most sensible site for a new naval base, it shares the Bay with a Soviet-era submarine base and small repair shipyard, as well as having surface vessel support abilities that could have been expanded when the need arose. In addition to ASW helicopters and transports, it was home to a couple of MiG-31 squadrons under the USSR.

Sovetskaya Gavan (Tatar Strait): A small naval post with a repair dock (for fishing vessels mostly), also served as base for a USSR naval ‘reconnaisance’ squadron of Tu-22s.

Magadan (Sea of Okhotsk): Another small naval post with fishing shipyards that can repair some naval vessels. Not the best site for a major port... only one route in, a half-paved road, but they built a large memorial to the victims of Stalin there, and are currently erecting a substantial cathedral (or so sayeth Wikipedia...)

Pacific Fleet-
2 Kiev Class Heavy Aircraft Carrying Cruiser (Aircraft Carrier)
2 Kirov Class Missile Battlecruisers
1 Slava Class Cruiser
2 Kara Class Guided Missile Cruisers <Destroyer>
5 Kashin Class Destroyers
4 Sovremenny Class Destroyers
5 Udaloy I Class Destroyers
10 Krivak Class Frigates
10 Grisha II Class Corvettes
8 Grisha V Class Corvettes
3 Tarantul Class Corvettes

This seems to include a substantial complement of large ships, needing appropriately-scaled repair facilities. Where were these built, and where are these ships based?]

I do realise the problem with the Pacific Fleet, and I was planning on making contact at some point in regards to that, but hadn’t quite got to it yet, and haven’t come up with a really good solution either. Considering that Vladivostok is so critically important both militarily and economically, I began looking at other suitable ports, and I will take full advantage of every one that you mentioned, including spending billions in helping to provide better access into the area by land, etc.
I am not sure how that is going to be perceived, but I will run my initial thoughts by you.

Sovestkaya Gavan, Magadan and Petropavlovsk Kamchatskiy, AS you seem to have mentioned all three, plus, one, I am glad because you seem to know more about them than I do.

I am, however, under the impression due my research that each of these places seem to have the right natural components to make a naval base, but have not been developed because Vladivostock served all major needs. I am assuming that all the way back to the Soviet era, right into the Democratic era both pre- and during Putin and then on to the Tsarist regime, these posts have been far more critical to our place in the Pacific Ocean.

Again, I don’t think that would replace, at least not fully, the economic value of Valdivostock.

I also need a clarification; I was under the understanding that up until recently, we were allowed to use Valdivostock as a military port. Even with that, I am sure that the Russian authorities would have wanted to lower their dependence on what was essentially a foreign port, no matter how close on paper Soviet and Strainist ideologies were.

Does that answer some of the questions?
While I am here, I should probably ask if I can get a list of the Strainist nations involved in the embargo and their populations, so that I can more properly gauge what the effect would be.

Tsar Wingert the Great.

[OOC: On the ports of the Russian Far East, the main difficulty they face is the freezing line, in that they're all stuck somewhat above the point where salt water stays unfrozen 12 months of the year. Not much of a problem for submarines, probably more of a crippling issue for commercial ships rather than military ones.

Vladivostok was home to its Russian naval base up until the fall of the Soviet Union, and up until the invasion of the Baltics and the embargo that followed, the port was quite open for through-shipment of Russian commerce.

Strainist States... Lyong (what was once Spyr proper, Tord, North Yaman) has a population of some 85 million, and Sujava (Java, Sumatra, etc) works out to around 170 million].

I see. But is not Sovestkaya Gavan open 12 months? Or am I mistaken.
Regardless, militarily, I think the significant influx of development could keep these bases open no matter the weather, but as for economically, I do think that it would be devastating to Far East seaboard. I think overall, our GDP is about the same as it was under Putin, with our biggest trading loss being export/import to China, though I do think that it would hurt China every bit as much as it hurts us, but I do see what you are saying. We are most likely experiencing massive recession on that part of the world, made perhaps somewhat lighter with massive military and infrastructure development contracts, but pretty bad nonetheless.

I am hoping that Wingert emerges from this conflict (if it doesn't turn pan-global) seen as the voice of reason within the League, and everyone will soon see that he is a pragmatic man, unlike the mad tyrant he is made out to be.

Tsar Wingert the Great

[OOC: I'm not sure of conditions at Gavan's port, but the Tatar suffers navigation restrictions due to ice from October through May.

Somehow I missed another port... Vanino, which is actually a substantial commercial port. Not quite the size of Primorski's three, but I suppose it would make a good fall-back. Its difficulty is that it suffers from freezing part of the year (they keep icebreakers there to punch open navigation channels and secure traffic for additional months, which adds to expense but means Russian goods can reach Pacific markets at higher prices instead of not at all). Vanino is focused on shipping lumber to the thirsty paper industries of Japan, so loss of Chinese and Strainist markets wouldn't be too significant.)
Oddly, its not a military port.]