Pacitalia
13-01-2006, 23:27
From La Repubblica Oggia
http://www.abinfoturk.net/images/fornews5160/prodi-02.jpg
Pacitalian pollster ABM/Capax's results
from a recent survey of 1'000 Pacitalians
shows PSC leader Fernando Chiovitti (above)
has a commanding lead over FPD leader
Constantino Sorantanali as to which
party leader is the most prime ministerial.
FPD headed to possible minority government; Chiovitti most PM-like
By Manti Soratina-Murana, Timiocato
ABM/Capax, Pacitalia's largest political pollster, surveyed 1'000 voting citizens between Monday and Wednesday and has returned two days later with results that are causing a systemic revelation among the Pacitalian (and international) political community.
The survey had two questions - the first being which party the voter intended to support on election day, the second being which party leader appeared most prime ministerial. And under the results, the Federation of Progressive Democrats seem to have a lot more work to do if they wish to secure a sixth-straight majority government under new leader Constantino Sorantanali.
The poll results, released this morning, put the FPD in the lead, but with a strikingly low 36,2% of voter support. The Pacitalian Social Coalition (PSC) was right behind at 34,8%; the Greens were third at 13,9%, and the new Non-Partisan Association came in fourth at 7,7%. The Partia di Traditionale, Communists and fringe parties earned the remaining 7,4% of voter support.
But even though the FPD appears to remain in the lead, a margin of error of [[+/- 3,0 : 19/20]] means that the right-of-centre governing party's 1,4% lead is, in the most likely scenario, statistically close to zero, meaning the two main parties are, in effect, tied.
This is a dramatic change from a poll done right after the FPD leadership election, where the FPD held a 45-25-15 lead over the PSC and Greens. But pollsters are suggesting Sorantanali's poor choice of words in the Space Union debacle and his slightly more centrist political beliefs (than his two predecessors) is effectually "cancelling him out to many voters".
"We are seeing soft FPD support switching to the PSC because Sorantanali is suddenly campaigning as a centrist," ABM/Capax's lead statistical technician, Roberto Daminanto said Friday when the results were released. "Fernando Chiovitti is much more centrist than his party is, overall. That means there's no political leeway between the two main candidates, and with the FPD having power for the last 18 straight years people seem to be thinking seriously about a change."
And that they are. The second question's results are even more interesting to followers of Pacitalian politics. Mr Chiovitti is the most prime ministerial to Pacitalians, holding a commanding 47% of the support. Mr Sorantanali sits second at 30%. Green leader Neros Constantakis, PdT leader Marco Quirinamo and NPA leader Aria Speranza all sit at 7,5%.
"I don't know about these results, though," adds Daminanto. "It is probably just because, to a lot of voters, Mr Sorantanali is relatively unknown in federal politics, and therefore he just doesn't have the same recognition factor or political-medial clout as Mr Chiovitti."
Unfortunately for Mr Sorantanali, it's his responsibility to rectify this publicity issue before the election, which is now less than two weeks away. The other parties had a better headstart on the campaign because they weren't choosing new leaders.
Daminanto ended by saying, "Looking at the results, perhaps it would have been better for the FPD to elect their leader earlier last month to give him more time to build an image and a pre-government legacy. Plus, we did not seem to see much of Mr Sorantanali before the leadership campaign. He just has not defined himself, and that's why the polls are so close."
http://www.abinfoturk.net/images/fornews5160/prodi-02.jpg
Pacitalian pollster ABM/Capax's results
from a recent survey of 1'000 Pacitalians
shows PSC leader Fernando Chiovitti (above)
has a commanding lead over FPD leader
Constantino Sorantanali as to which
party leader is the most prime ministerial.
FPD headed to possible minority government; Chiovitti most PM-like
By Manti Soratina-Murana, Timiocato
ABM/Capax, Pacitalia's largest political pollster, surveyed 1'000 voting citizens between Monday and Wednesday and has returned two days later with results that are causing a systemic revelation among the Pacitalian (and international) political community.
The survey had two questions - the first being which party the voter intended to support on election day, the second being which party leader appeared most prime ministerial. And under the results, the Federation of Progressive Democrats seem to have a lot more work to do if they wish to secure a sixth-straight majority government under new leader Constantino Sorantanali.
The poll results, released this morning, put the FPD in the lead, but with a strikingly low 36,2% of voter support. The Pacitalian Social Coalition (PSC) was right behind at 34,8%; the Greens were third at 13,9%, and the new Non-Partisan Association came in fourth at 7,7%. The Partia di Traditionale, Communists and fringe parties earned the remaining 7,4% of voter support.
But even though the FPD appears to remain in the lead, a margin of error of [[+/- 3,0 : 19/20]] means that the right-of-centre governing party's 1,4% lead is, in the most likely scenario, statistically close to zero, meaning the two main parties are, in effect, tied.
This is a dramatic change from a poll done right after the FPD leadership election, where the FPD held a 45-25-15 lead over the PSC and Greens. But pollsters are suggesting Sorantanali's poor choice of words in the Space Union debacle and his slightly more centrist political beliefs (than his two predecessors) is effectually "cancelling him out to many voters".
"We are seeing soft FPD support switching to the PSC because Sorantanali is suddenly campaigning as a centrist," ABM/Capax's lead statistical technician, Roberto Daminanto said Friday when the results were released. "Fernando Chiovitti is much more centrist than his party is, overall. That means there's no political leeway between the two main candidates, and with the FPD having power for the last 18 straight years people seem to be thinking seriously about a change."
And that they are. The second question's results are even more interesting to followers of Pacitalian politics. Mr Chiovitti is the most prime ministerial to Pacitalians, holding a commanding 47% of the support. Mr Sorantanali sits second at 30%. Green leader Neros Constantakis, PdT leader Marco Quirinamo and NPA leader Aria Speranza all sit at 7,5%.
"I don't know about these results, though," adds Daminanto. "It is probably just because, to a lot of voters, Mr Sorantanali is relatively unknown in federal politics, and therefore he just doesn't have the same recognition factor or political-medial clout as Mr Chiovitti."
Unfortunately for Mr Sorantanali, it's his responsibility to rectify this publicity issue before the election, which is now less than two weeks away. The other parties had a better headstart on the campaign because they weren't choosing new leaders.
Daminanto ended by saying, "Looking at the results, perhaps it would have been better for the FPD to elect their leader earlier last month to give him more time to build an image and a pre-government legacy. Plus, we did not seem to see much of Mr Sorantanali before the leadership campaign. He just has not defined himself, and that's why the polls are so close."