Allemande
13-05-2005, 16:07
Or, The Newbies Guide to Building (and Loving) the Bomb... ;)
You're young, you're ambitious, you have a brand new nation with 5,000,000 people and you want to build the Bomb. Everyone tells you that you have to wait until your population passes 100,000,000 people. That seems like forever! How do you get there faster?
Sidebar: I'm not sure that it's a great thing for everyone to have the Bomb, but if this helps eliminate shameless n00bism, I guess that's a worthwhile sacrifice. So here goes...
Get Your Hands on a Supply of Uranium
This is easy: every nation in NationStates has a rich motherlode of uranium lying under one (or more) of its old growth forests (#23: Uranium Deposit Promises To Enrich @@NAME@@ (http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showpost.php?p=6711727&postcount=4)). You just have to go in and tear that stuff out by the roots (or mine it sensibly, if that's your thing). If for some reason you don't want to do that, then you'll have to buy it on the world market.
Now, you could go out and ask (in a thread), "Say, we'd like to buy several thousand tons of yellowcake to build lots of bombs. Anyone willing to sell?" but that will probably raise eyebrows coming from a young nation. So you're better off buying the stuff for the purposes of nuclear power generation.
Develop a Nuclear Power Industry
This is also easy, though not quite as easy as getting your hands on uranium. Again, there's an issue (#69: Power Problems Need Bright Solution (http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showpost.php?p=6711736&postcount=8)) that creates such an industry if you make the "right" choice. If you don't choose to create such an industry (or the issue hasn't come up yet, and you're impatient), however, then you'll have to do a little work:Train Scientists and Engineers in Nuclear Physics
Lots of countries have nuclear power. These countries also have universities. Many of these universities also admit foreign students, even from loathsome dictatorships or racist/chauvinist/fanatical regimes (ain't "academic freedom" a wonderful thing?). Allemande (http://www.nationstates.net/cgi-bin/index.cgi/target=display_nation/nation=Allemande) itself asks few questions when a suitable foreign applicant seeks to enroll in its institutions of higher learning; neither do Ayaddha (http://www.nationstates.net/cgi-bin/index.cgi/target=display_nation/nation=Ayaddha), Ayoddha (http://www.nationstates.net/cgi-bin/index.cgi/target=display_nation/nation=Ayoddha), or Ayuddha (http://www.nationstates.net/cgi-bin/index.cgi/target=display_nation/nation=Ayaddha) (all mine as well - and all possess both "open" university systems and nuclear power industries [all but Ayaddha can also build nuclear explosives]). You'll want to ask about the culture and conditions, of course, before sending students off to these places.
Others may wish to add to this listing...
How long does it take to acquire the necessary knowledge? Following the standard rule that 1 RL day = 1 NS year, you should be able to get a bunch of engineers with Masters degrees in a week, add some PhD's in another week, and then set up your own home-grown academic programs in 2-3 more weeks (20-25 years for the whole process). At a minimum, then, you could probably start building your own nuclear power plants in a couple weeks, although they'd be at the pilot stage for the first week or so.
Announce the Construction/Development of Nuclear Power Plants & Research Facilities
Without the issue, this is the next step. If you get the assistance of a nation that already has nuclear power (for electricification, medicine, and research), you can start before you've finished training your engineers and scientists (see above). This isn't hard to do (in RL, it happens all the time). Otherwise, as indicated above, you'll have to wait 2-3 weeks to start building those first few plants and 2-3 weeks for the technology to go mainstream.
Summary Thus Far (D1 = Day You Decide to Go Nuclear):1. Train nuclear engineers and scientistsA. Start: D1+0
B. End: D1+10 to D1+152. Begin building test reactorsA. With foreign help:i. Start: D1+0
ii. End: D1+7 to D1+10B. Without foreign help:i. Start: D1+10 to D1+15 (or when Issue #69 comes up)
ii. End: D1+20 to D1+25 (or 7 to 10 days after Issue #69 comes up)2. Begin buying uranium on world market:A. Start: When either:i. First plants begin to be built, or
ii. Issue #69 comes up.You do not have to choose the "nuclear option" on Issue #69 to be able to build nuclear reactors: my assumption is that Issue #69 would not come up if you couldn't follow the "nuclear option". You simply have to RP pursuit of the "nuclear option" if you choose some different approach (like alternatives [solar and wind]) in #69 (or dismiss)
Begin Refining Nuclear Fuel
This happens automatically (with or without a nuclear industry - or a ready source of uranium) if you choose to build WMD in response to (#151: Build Bigger Bombs, Advise Scientists (http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showpost.php?p=6711766&postcount=17)). Otherwise, you have to RP it.
The usual method is simply to announce that you intend to build a bomb. Note that you run smack dab into the uranium supply problem if you haven't yet established your nuclear industry (IOW, you're acquiring yellowcake for bombs, not for power); technically, though, you could begin refining almost as soon as you start building test reactors. This is why a secure source of uranium is so important.
Once you begin refinement, it will take about a week to build your first bomb. Unfortunately, that first bomb will be one of just a handful of devices, so don't let "the power" go to your head.
Test Your New Bomb
Unless you got Issue #151, this requires an RP thread. Your first bomb will almost certainly be a fission device, 10-15KT in yield. I recommend underground testing, but that's optional.
Keep in mind that you will not have the ability to deliver your new bomb without developing missiles. This is a separate effort.
Build Lots More Bombs
There is no issue that does this for you, but you don't need to RP it, either. Just allow a week or so for your equivalents of Oak Ridge (http://www.chemcases.com/2003version/nuclear/nc-07.htm) and Hanford (http://www.answers.com/topic/hanford-site) to get up to speed in cranking out bombs.
Build Bigger Bombs
This is optional. There was a great debate between Dr. Edward Teller and Dr. J. Robert Oppenheimer over whether to build an H-bomb (http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/intro/h-bomb-decision.htm). Politics and idealism aside, there were real military issues to be considered: while boosted fission devices (http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/intro/booster.htm) of 150KT or greater can destroy any target imaginable through a direct hit, the key words here are "direct hit". Near misses open up the possibility of target survival, especially if the target was hardened - something the Soviets were doing to an ever increasing degree in the early 50's. The American response to this was the H-bomb, a fusion device (http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/intro/h-bomb.htm). If you couldn't guarantee a "direct hit" or even a "near miss", then you could build a bomb so big that it didn't have to come all that close to achieve its objectives.
In retrospect, more accurate delivery systems would have produced much better results. But in the 1950's there were limits on weapon accuracy. Do those limits exist in NS? Do they apply to you? This is something for you to decide. The wealthier and more established your nation is - IOW, the closer you get to fin-de-siecle (fig., "end of the era [or century]") technology - the more likely it is that you'll want smaller, more accurate nukes in preference to bigger, beefier ones. But YMMV...
Develop a Deterrent
This is the real reason for having nukes, since using them is often a Bad Idea. The strategies of deterrence are many, and thus beyond the scope of this post. Suffice it to say that you will need to have a lot of resources to acquire the large quantities of weapons and platforms, or command and communications systems, of shelters, and maintain the high levels of readiness required to keep a "credible deterrent" on line. And ultimately this - regardless of the size of your country when you first acquire nukes - is what will make or break you as a nuclear power. The good news is that - with enough time - your nation should grow big enough to do this. The bad news is that it will take time.
Continuing the Summary: (D2 = Day You Begin Refining Uranium/Plutonium)3. Refine nuclear fuel (enough for your first test bomb[s])a. Start: When either:i. Your nuclear industry is mature (unsecured uranium source [world market])
ii. Your first test reactors are finished (secure uranium source [domestic or RP's purchase arrangement])
iii. Issue #151 comes upb. End: D2+5 (give or take a day)
4. Increase production (from 10-20 bombs per year to 100+ bombs per year)a. Start: D2+5
b. End: D2+105. Develop H-bombs (if desired)a. Start: D2+5 to D2+10 (depends on external pressure)
b. End: D2+10 to D2+15 (espionage can help)6. Deploy an effective deterrent (relative to threat)a. Start: D2+5
b. End: Per deterrent size:i. 25-100 bombs - D2+5 to D2+10 and GDP=$1,000,000,000,000 (+/-)
ii. 100-500 bombs - D2+5 to D2+10 and GDP=$2,000,000,000,000 (+/-)
iii. 500-5000 bombs - D2+10 to D2+15 and GDP=$3,000,000,000,000 (+/-)
iv. 5000-10000 bombs - D2+15 TO D2+20 and GDP=$5,000,000,000,000 (+/-)
v. 10000-50000 bombs - D2+25 to D2+35 and GDP=$10,000,000,000,000 (+/-)
vi. 50000-100000 bombs - D2+35 to D2+50 and GDP=$25,000,000,000,000 (+/-)
vii. 100000+ - D2+50+ and GDP=$50,000,000,000,000 (+/-)These last figures are definitely back-of-the-envelope guesses. Look to RL nuclear programs as a more definitive guide.
Comments welcome!
You're young, you're ambitious, you have a brand new nation with 5,000,000 people and you want to build the Bomb. Everyone tells you that you have to wait until your population passes 100,000,000 people. That seems like forever! How do you get there faster?
Sidebar: I'm not sure that it's a great thing for everyone to have the Bomb, but if this helps eliminate shameless n00bism, I guess that's a worthwhile sacrifice. So here goes...
Get Your Hands on a Supply of Uranium
This is easy: every nation in NationStates has a rich motherlode of uranium lying under one (or more) of its old growth forests (#23: Uranium Deposit Promises To Enrich @@NAME@@ (http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showpost.php?p=6711727&postcount=4)). You just have to go in and tear that stuff out by the roots (or mine it sensibly, if that's your thing). If for some reason you don't want to do that, then you'll have to buy it on the world market.
Now, you could go out and ask (in a thread), "Say, we'd like to buy several thousand tons of yellowcake to build lots of bombs. Anyone willing to sell?" but that will probably raise eyebrows coming from a young nation. So you're better off buying the stuff for the purposes of nuclear power generation.
Develop a Nuclear Power Industry
This is also easy, though not quite as easy as getting your hands on uranium. Again, there's an issue (#69: Power Problems Need Bright Solution (http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showpost.php?p=6711736&postcount=8)) that creates such an industry if you make the "right" choice. If you don't choose to create such an industry (or the issue hasn't come up yet, and you're impatient), however, then you'll have to do a little work:Train Scientists and Engineers in Nuclear Physics
Lots of countries have nuclear power. These countries also have universities. Many of these universities also admit foreign students, even from loathsome dictatorships or racist/chauvinist/fanatical regimes (ain't "academic freedom" a wonderful thing?). Allemande (http://www.nationstates.net/cgi-bin/index.cgi/target=display_nation/nation=Allemande) itself asks few questions when a suitable foreign applicant seeks to enroll in its institutions of higher learning; neither do Ayaddha (http://www.nationstates.net/cgi-bin/index.cgi/target=display_nation/nation=Ayaddha), Ayoddha (http://www.nationstates.net/cgi-bin/index.cgi/target=display_nation/nation=Ayoddha), or Ayuddha (http://www.nationstates.net/cgi-bin/index.cgi/target=display_nation/nation=Ayaddha) (all mine as well - and all possess both "open" university systems and nuclear power industries [all but Ayaddha can also build nuclear explosives]). You'll want to ask about the culture and conditions, of course, before sending students off to these places.
Others may wish to add to this listing...
How long does it take to acquire the necessary knowledge? Following the standard rule that 1 RL day = 1 NS year, you should be able to get a bunch of engineers with Masters degrees in a week, add some PhD's in another week, and then set up your own home-grown academic programs in 2-3 more weeks (20-25 years for the whole process). At a minimum, then, you could probably start building your own nuclear power plants in a couple weeks, although they'd be at the pilot stage for the first week or so.
Announce the Construction/Development of Nuclear Power Plants & Research Facilities
Without the issue, this is the next step. If you get the assistance of a nation that already has nuclear power (for electricification, medicine, and research), you can start before you've finished training your engineers and scientists (see above). This isn't hard to do (in RL, it happens all the time). Otherwise, as indicated above, you'll have to wait 2-3 weeks to start building those first few plants and 2-3 weeks for the technology to go mainstream.
Summary Thus Far (D1 = Day You Decide to Go Nuclear):1. Train nuclear engineers and scientistsA. Start: D1+0
B. End: D1+10 to D1+152. Begin building test reactorsA. With foreign help:i. Start: D1+0
ii. End: D1+7 to D1+10B. Without foreign help:i. Start: D1+10 to D1+15 (or when Issue #69 comes up)
ii. End: D1+20 to D1+25 (or 7 to 10 days after Issue #69 comes up)2. Begin buying uranium on world market:A. Start: When either:i. First plants begin to be built, or
ii. Issue #69 comes up.You do not have to choose the "nuclear option" on Issue #69 to be able to build nuclear reactors: my assumption is that Issue #69 would not come up if you couldn't follow the "nuclear option". You simply have to RP pursuit of the "nuclear option" if you choose some different approach (like alternatives [solar and wind]) in #69 (or dismiss)
Begin Refining Nuclear Fuel
This happens automatically (with or without a nuclear industry - or a ready source of uranium) if you choose to build WMD in response to (#151: Build Bigger Bombs, Advise Scientists (http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showpost.php?p=6711766&postcount=17)). Otherwise, you have to RP it.
The usual method is simply to announce that you intend to build a bomb. Note that you run smack dab into the uranium supply problem if you haven't yet established your nuclear industry (IOW, you're acquiring yellowcake for bombs, not for power); technically, though, you could begin refining almost as soon as you start building test reactors. This is why a secure source of uranium is so important.
Once you begin refinement, it will take about a week to build your first bomb. Unfortunately, that first bomb will be one of just a handful of devices, so don't let "the power" go to your head.
Test Your New Bomb
Unless you got Issue #151, this requires an RP thread. Your first bomb will almost certainly be a fission device, 10-15KT in yield. I recommend underground testing, but that's optional.
Keep in mind that you will not have the ability to deliver your new bomb without developing missiles. This is a separate effort.
Build Lots More Bombs
There is no issue that does this for you, but you don't need to RP it, either. Just allow a week or so for your equivalents of Oak Ridge (http://www.chemcases.com/2003version/nuclear/nc-07.htm) and Hanford (http://www.answers.com/topic/hanford-site) to get up to speed in cranking out bombs.
Build Bigger Bombs
This is optional. There was a great debate between Dr. Edward Teller and Dr. J. Robert Oppenheimer over whether to build an H-bomb (http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/intro/h-bomb-decision.htm). Politics and idealism aside, there were real military issues to be considered: while boosted fission devices (http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/intro/booster.htm) of 150KT or greater can destroy any target imaginable through a direct hit, the key words here are "direct hit". Near misses open up the possibility of target survival, especially if the target was hardened - something the Soviets were doing to an ever increasing degree in the early 50's. The American response to this was the H-bomb, a fusion device (http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/intro/h-bomb.htm). If you couldn't guarantee a "direct hit" or even a "near miss", then you could build a bomb so big that it didn't have to come all that close to achieve its objectives.
In retrospect, more accurate delivery systems would have produced much better results. But in the 1950's there were limits on weapon accuracy. Do those limits exist in NS? Do they apply to you? This is something for you to decide. The wealthier and more established your nation is - IOW, the closer you get to fin-de-siecle (fig., "end of the era [or century]") technology - the more likely it is that you'll want smaller, more accurate nukes in preference to bigger, beefier ones. But YMMV...
Develop a Deterrent
This is the real reason for having nukes, since using them is often a Bad Idea. The strategies of deterrence are many, and thus beyond the scope of this post. Suffice it to say that you will need to have a lot of resources to acquire the large quantities of weapons and platforms, or command and communications systems, of shelters, and maintain the high levels of readiness required to keep a "credible deterrent" on line. And ultimately this - regardless of the size of your country when you first acquire nukes - is what will make or break you as a nuclear power. The good news is that - with enough time - your nation should grow big enough to do this. The bad news is that it will take time.
Continuing the Summary: (D2 = Day You Begin Refining Uranium/Plutonium)3. Refine nuclear fuel (enough for your first test bomb[s])a. Start: When either:i. Your nuclear industry is mature (unsecured uranium source [world market])
ii. Your first test reactors are finished (secure uranium source [domestic or RP's purchase arrangement])
iii. Issue #151 comes upb. End: D2+5 (give or take a day)
4. Increase production (from 10-20 bombs per year to 100+ bombs per year)a. Start: D2+5
b. End: D2+105. Develop H-bombs (if desired)a. Start: D2+5 to D2+10 (depends on external pressure)
b. End: D2+10 to D2+15 (espionage can help)6. Deploy an effective deterrent (relative to threat)a. Start: D2+5
b. End: Per deterrent size:i. 25-100 bombs - D2+5 to D2+10 and GDP=$1,000,000,000,000 (+/-)
ii. 100-500 bombs - D2+5 to D2+10 and GDP=$2,000,000,000,000 (+/-)
iii. 500-5000 bombs - D2+10 to D2+15 and GDP=$3,000,000,000,000 (+/-)
iv. 5000-10000 bombs - D2+15 TO D2+20 and GDP=$5,000,000,000,000 (+/-)
v. 10000-50000 bombs - D2+25 to D2+35 and GDP=$10,000,000,000,000 (+/-)
vi. 50000-100000 bombs - D2+35 to D2+50 and GDP=$25,000,000,000,000 (+/-)
vii. 100000+ - D2+50+ and GDP=$50,000,000,000,000 (+/-)These last figures are definitely back-of-the-envelope guesses. Look to RL nuclear programs as a more definitive guide.
Comments welcome!