NationStates Jolt Archive


Iran's post election unrest.

The Lone Alliance
14-06-2009, 17:26
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/06/13/world/main5085824.shtml
Opponents of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad clashed with police in the heart of Iran's capital Saturday, pelting them with rocks and setting fires in the worst unrest in Tehran in a decade. They accused the hard-line president of using fraud to steal election victory from his reformist rival.

Young people are especially angered by what they believe to be a rigged election, reports CBS News correspondent Elizabeth Palmer.

The brazen and angry confrontations — including stunning scenes of masked rioters tangling with black-clad police — pushed the self-styled reformist movement closer to a possible moment of truth: Whether to continue defying Iran's powerful security forces or, as they often have before, retreat into quiet dismay and frustration over losing more ground to the Islamic establishment.

But for at least one day, the tone and tactics were more combative than at any time since authorities put down student-led protests in 1999. Young men hurled stones and bottles at anti-riot units and mocked Ahmadinejad as an illegitimate leader. The reformists' new hero, Mir Hossein Mousavi, declared himself the true winner of Friday's presidential race and urged backers to resist a government based on "lies and dictatorship."

Authorities, too, pushed back with ominous measures apparently seeking to undercut liberal voices: jamming text messages, blocking pro-Mousavi Web sites and Facebook and cutting off mobile phones in Tehran.

The extent of possible casualties and detentions was not immediately clear. Police stormed the headquarters of Iran's largest reformist party, the Islamic Iran Participation Front, and arrested several top reformist leaders, said political activists close to the party.The activists spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation.

Mousavi did not appear in public, but warned in a Web message: "People won't respect those who take power through fraud."

Many backers took this call to the streets. Thousands of protesters — mostly young men — roamed through Tehran looking for a fight with police and setting trash bins and tires ablaze. Pillars of black smoke rose among the mustard-colored apartment blocks and office buildings in central Tehran. In one side road, an empty bus was engulfed in flames.

Police fought back with clubs, including mobile squads on motorcycles swinging truncheons.

The scuffles began when protesters gathered hours outside the Interior Ministry around the time officials announced the final election results showing a nearly 2-to-1 landslide for Ahmadinejad. Demonstrators chanted "the government lied" and waved the ribbons of Mousavi's "green" movement — the signature color of his youth-driven campaign.

"I won't surrender to this manipulation," said a statement on Mousavi's Web site. "The outcome of what we've seen from the performance of officials ... is nothing but shaking the pillars of the Islamic Republic of Iran's sacred system and governance of lies and dictatorship."

The door for possible compromise was closed by Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He could have used his near-limitless powers to intervene in the election dispute. But, in a message on state TV, he urged the nation to unite behind Ahmadinejad, calling the result a "divine assessment."

There are no independent election monitors in Iran. Mousavi's claims, however, point to some noticeable breaks with past election counting.

The tallies from previous elections — time-comsuming paper ballots — began to trickle in hours after polls closed. This time, huge chunks of results — millions at a time — poured in almost immediately from a huge turnout of about 85 percent of Iran's 46.2 million voters. The final outcome: 62.6 percent of the vote to Ahmadinejad and 33.75 for Mousavi, a former prime minister from the 1980s.

The U.S. refused to accept Ahmadinejad's claim of a landslide re-election victory said it was looking into allegations of election fraud.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said she hoped the outcome reflects the "genuine will and desire" of Iranian voters. At a joint appearance with Clinton, Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon said his country was "deeply concerned" by reports of irregularities in the election.

"The majority of Iranians are certain that the fraud is widespread," said Tehran-based analyst Saeed Leilaz. "It's like taking 10 million votes away from Mousavi and giving them to Ahmadinejad."

Whether this is enough to spawn a sustained opposition movement remains an open question.

Much depends on how much they are willing to risk. The heartland of Iran's liberal ranks is the educated and relatively affluent districts of north Tehran. It's also the showcase for the gains in social freedoms that began with the election of President Mohammad Khatami in 1997: makeup, Internet cafes, head scarves that barely cover hair and satellite dishes that are technically illegal but common.

The ruling clerics tolerate all that to a point — part of a tacit arrangement that the liberties stay as long as reformists remain politically meek. A real protest movement could threaten their coveted Western-looking lifestyle and risk a brutal response from groups vowing to defend the Islamic system.

The political chief of the powerful Revolutionary Guard has warned it would crush any "revolution" against the Islamic regime by Mousavi's "green movement" — drawing parallels to the "velvet revolution" of 1989 in then-Czechoslovakia.

Authorities also called foreign journalists with visas to cover the elections, including members of The Associated Press, and told them they should prepare to leave the country. Italian state TV RAI said one of its crews was caught in the clashes in front Mousavi's headquarters. Their Iranian interpreter was beaten with clubs by riot police and officers confiscated the cameraman's tapes, the station said.

"The massive demonstrations of police and army presence on the streets was designed to show that they were quite ready to kill protesters if they had to in order to impose order," said Patrick Clawson, deputy director at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "On the whole, these guys in north Tehran who are terribly upset about what is happening are not ready to die."

Hadi Ghaemi, spokesman for the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, denounced the outcome as "a Tehran Tiananmen" — a reference to China's brutal 1989 crackdown on pro-democracy activists — and urged the international community not to recognize the result.

There were also protests by Mousavi supporters in the southern city of Ahvaz in the oil-rich province of Khuzestan who shouted, "Mousavi, take our votes back!" witnesses said.

Mousavi called on his backers to avoid violence, but he is still talking tough about pressing his claims of election fraud. He charges the polls early but has not fully outlined all of his fraud allegations.

Unlike his ally Khatami, Mousavi is a hardened political veteran who led the country during the grim years of the 1980-88 war with Iraq. He also could join forces with the powerful political patriarch Heshemi Rafsanjani, who strongly opposed Ahmadinejad's re-election during the intense monthlong campaign.

Amjad Atallah, a Washington-based regional analyst, called it "one of the most existential moments" in Iran since 1979 Islamic Revolution.

"You can't overstate how important what is happening now is for Iran," he said.

In Tehran, several Ahmadinejad supporters cruised the streets at dawn waving Iranian flags out of car windows and shouting "Mousavi is dead!"

They were quickly overwhelmed by the Mousavi backers.

The protesters — some hiding their faces with masks — still wandered the streets after nightfall as some fires still burned. The pungent smell of burning rubber and smoldering trash lingered in some parts of the city.

Hundreds of anti-riot police blocked the streets leading to Tehran University's dormitory, home to thousands of students and the site of the 1999 student riots that marked the biggest disturbances in post-revolution Iran. University exams nationwide were postponed until next month.

Oddly, normal life was interspersed with the anger. People continued shopping and stores remained open.

With the Internet and mobile texting down, some Iranians turned to Twitter to voice their views.

"Very disappointed with Iran elections," said one entry."Apparently still a backward regressive nation."

Another: "Elections in Iran: stayed tuned as it gets interesting (& maybe scary)."

Ahmadinejad addressed a crowd in Tehran, but did not mention the unrest, saying only "a new era has begun in the history of the Iranian nation."

But there were no hints of any new policy shifts on key international issues such as Iran's standoff over its nuclear program and the offer by President Barack Obama to open dialogue after a nearly 30-year diplomatic estrangement. All high-level decisions are controlled by the ruling theocracy.


So what do you think? Is this good or bad? Did the US elections influence this at all? Does this prove that the people Iran doesn't hate America?

If this spills over into Iraq will we be forced to do something?
No Names Left Damn It
14-06-2009, 21:04
Wrong forum.
Behaved
14-06-2009, 21:44
Wrong forum.
It's an RL news thing. Do you think it belong in the new forum? Iran is disgusting to me. Islamic democracy is crap talk. Republic, yes but more like theocratic competitive authoritarianism, than "Islamic democracy"
No Names Left Damn It
14-06-2009, 22:19
It's an RL news thing. Do you think it belong in the new forum? Iran is disgusting to me. Islamic democracy is crap talk. Republic, yes but more like theocratic competitive authoritarianism, than "Islamic democracy"

Hey, well done, you actually made sense. Islamic and democracy are oxymoronic when used in conjunction anyway.
Svalbardania
15-06-2009, 01:13
Hey, well done, you actually made sense. Islamic and democracy are oxymoronic when used in conjunction anyway.

Well, not really. Any theocracy is by definition un-democratic, regardless of whether it holds elections or not. But that doesn't mean a predominantly Islamic country can't be democratic. I would say Indonesia could be a decent example, they've cleaned up their act a lot in recent years. Hell, the US manages to be democratic most of the time, and they're a predominantly Christian country.

In Iran's case, on the other hand... yeah, democracy. Sure. Uhhuh. We'll believe you. Honest :rolleyes:

I think the prominence of women in some of the oppopsition party platforms was a major plus, and showed that the populace is fundamentally ok with modern ideals. Which wouldn't surprise me, seeing as Iran only stopped being an ally of the West a few decades ago, and the Islamic Revolution was not exactly overwhelmingly supported by the populace...

Mr. Ahmadinnerjacket should take this as a sign that there is significant opposition to his rule, regardless of the vote fixing he undertakes. Ayatollah Komeihni should perhaps take a few moments out to wonder if his sponsorship of the ultra-conservative is the right thing to do for the country.
The Lone Alliance
15-06-2009, 03:48
Wrong forum.
The New forums drive me crazy, too cluttered.
BunnySaurus Bugsii
15-06-2009, 12:26
I will just say that wearing balaclavas and other improvised riot gear makes "protestors" look bad on television.

I know, they face reprisals if they're identified. But hell, when you see them on television they're usually getting "reprisals" right before your eyes, and when they're dragged off to the police station they're not going to be able to keep their faces from being photographed, now are they?

This is a general comment on protests, whether it be the anti-WTO protests or election fraud protests in Iran now. It's all about the image you project when (and if) your protest gets reported. Some news sources will focus on your message, but most will focus on what you actually do by way of protest.

Giving television cameras footage of a pitched battle -- armed and armoured "protesters" fighting with police -- is just plain stupid. It negates the sacrifice of time and effort, and risk to life, of protestors who turn up with their faces showing and equipped only for peaceful protest.

Fighting cops or military has it's place. That's called a revolution. Dickheads who think the front line of a protest is their chance to lead the revolution should just fuck off. They sabotage effective protest, and they do it so effectively that its hard not to think they do so on purpose.
CanuckHeaven
15-06-2009, 15:16
The New forums drive me crazy, too cluttered.
And not user friendly.....

As far as Iran is concerned, I do believe that they still do not trust the US to do the right thing and that is why the hardliner was re-elected or shall we say re-selected....
New Mitanni
16-06-2009, 04:41
Anyone who thought any candidate other than Khamanei's personal butt-monkey had a snowball's chance in hell of winning this so-called "election" probably believes in other silly things, like Hope and Change. The fact that no independent observers are allowed to monitor the voting ipso facto shows that it was a sham and a fraud from the get-go.

The best outcome would be for anti-theocracy dissidents to coalesce around Moussavi (bad as he is), and have another revolution that brings down the so-called "Islamic Republic," followed by Fuehrer Khamanei, Gauleiter A-Muddy-Dinner-Jacket, the entire Guardian Council and all the supporters thereof being lined up against a wall and liquidated. God willing, the revolutionary process is now starting.
CanuckHeaven
16-06-2009, 12:56
Anyone who thought any candidate other than Khamanei's personal butt-monkey had a snowball's chance in hell of winning this so-called "election" probably believes in other silly things, like Hope and Change. The fact that no independent observers are allowed to monitor the voting ipso facto shows that it was a sham and a fraud from the get-go.

The best outcome would be for anti-theocracy dissidents to coalesce around Moussavi (bad as he is), and have another revolution that brings down the so-called "Islamic Republic," followed by Fuehrer Khamanei, Gauleiter A-Muddy-Dinner-Jacket, the entire Guardian Council and all the supporters thereof being lined up against a wall and liquidated. God willing, the revolutionary process is now starting.
So, to install YOUR idea of democracy in Iran, it would require the "liquidation" of one half the population. A tad overbearing huh?
New Mitanni
16-06-2009, 16:57
So, to install YOUR idea of democracy in Iran, it would require the "liquidation" of one half the population. A tad overbearing huh?

Yeah, that's right, I'm going to install MY idea of democracy in Iran. MY idea of democracy in Iran is BETTER than the moolah-cracy that's running the place now. And considering that was the fate of the Shah's supporters in 1979, it's absolutely fitting that the moolah-crats suffer the same fate.

And once A-Muddy-Dinner-Jacket, Khamanei, the Guardian Council and the Revolutionary Guard are exterminated, I suspect there would be far fewer "supporters" of the former regime in evidence.

Support the revolution in Iran!
CanuckHeaven
16-06-2009, 20:48
Yeah, that's right, I'm going to install MY idea of democracy in Iran. MY idea of democracy in Iran is BETTER than the moolah-cracy that's running the place now. And considering that was the fate of the Shah's supporters in 1979, it's absolutely fitting that the moolah-crats suffer the same fate.

And once A-Muddy-Dinner-Jacket, Khamanei, the Guardian Council and the Revolutionary Guard are exterminated, I suspect there would be far fewer "supporters" of the former regime in evidence.

Support the revolution in Iran!
Unfortunatly, you seem to be missing some relevant history?
No Names Left Damn It
16-06-2009, 21:03
Yeah, that's right, I'm going to install MY idea of democracy in Iran. MY idea of democracy in Iran is BETTER than the moolah-cracy that's running the place now. And considering that was the fate of the Shah's supporters in 1979, it's absolutely fitting that the moolah-crats suffer the same fate.

And once A-Muddy-Dinner-Jacket, Khamanei, the Guardian Council and the Revolutionary Guard are exterminated, I suspect there would be far fewer "supporters" of the former regime in evidence.

Support the revolution in Iran!

A touch extreme, but I agree.
Behaved
16-06-2009, 21:28
Yeah, that's right, I'm going to install MY idea of democracy in Iran. MY idea of democracy in Iran is BETTER than the moolah-cracy that's running the place now. And considering that was the fate of the Shah's supporters in 1979, it's absolutely fitting that the moolah-crats suffer the same fate.

And once A-Muddy-Dinner-Jacket, Khamanei, the Guardian Council and the Revolutionary Guard are exterminated, I suspect there would be far fewer "supporters" of the former regime in evidence.

Support the revolution in Iran!
You are annoying. What is your idea of democracy anyway?
No Names Left Damn It
16-06-2009, 21:38
You are annoying.

That's so ironic, my computer screen's rusted over.

What is your idea of democracy anyway?

I would assume no election fraud, and then not shooting the protesters. Am I right, NM?
BunnySaurus Bugsii
17-06-2009, 12:52
Yeah, that's right, I'm going to install MY idea of democracy in Iran. MY idea of democracy in Iran is BETTER than the moolah-cracy that's running the place now. And considering that was the fate of the Shah's supporters in 1979, it's absolutely fitting that the moolah-crats suffer the same fate.

And once A-Muddy-Dinner-Jacket, Khamanei, the Guardian Council and the Revolutionary Guard are exterminated, I suspect there would be far fewer "supporters" of the former regime in evidence.

The New Mitanni plan for instituting democracy.

Shoot the government and anyone who ever supported them.

...

Democracy!
Helertia
17-06-2009, 20:20
I'm used to this sort of idiocy, and even I was surprised by how stupidly Aspirational-Prez-for-life (hereafter refered to as hoochie-coochie-prezzie-boots) went about it. I mean, one candiate that ran last election also ran this time. Last time, in one area, he got 42% of the vote. This year, his campaign was going better if anythnig and he got 6%? Places that voted Hoochie-Coochie-Prezzie-Boots at 6%, 7% and 4% last election are now voting him at 70% and 80%. I'm reasonably sure he says more people voted for him than actually voted at all. Moron.

The New Mitanni plan for instituting democracy.

1. Shoot the government and anyone who ever supported them.
2. ...
3. Democracy!

what, all 3 of them?
Tmutarakhan
17-06-2009, 21:33
I did statistical analysis on the numbers for Korroubi (that's the candidate who ran strongly last time, and this time supposedly got hardly any vote even in his hometown, which his political machine runs) and they are clearly fraudulent. The Iranian regime apparently does not even care about credibility any more.
Svalbardania
17-06-2009, 23:29
I did statistical analysis on the numbers for Korroubi (that's the candidate who ran strongly last time, and this time supposedly got hardly any vote even in his hometown, which his political machine runs) and they are clearly fraudulent. The Iranian regime apparently does not even care about credibility any more.

Wait, the numbers publicly available don't even support the government's claims?
Tmutarakhan
18-06-2009, 11:23
Of course they support the government's claim that Dinner Jacket won.
But the numbers are not consistent with what genuine numbers look like. Far too many of the precinct totals for Korroubi start with the digit 7: when human beings are making up numbers at "random", they tend to pick 7 more often than they should.
South Lorenya
18-06-2009, 15:54
Indeed (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/06/karroubis-unlucky-7s.html).

Fortunately, Ahmedinutjob flunked out of Noncartoon Villainy 101.
Helertia
19-06-2009, 12:17
*laughs* He spent lotsa time in detention with Wiley Coyote .
BunnySaurus Bugsii
20-06-2009, 00:57
Of course they support the government's claim that Dinner Jacket won.
But the numbers are not consistent with what genuine numbers look like. Far too many of the precinct totals for Korroubi start with the digit 7: when human beings are making up numbers at "random", they tend to pick 7 more often than they should.

How big a sample?

I'm not questioning your result. This "statistical analysis" lark sounds fun, is all.
Behaved
20-06-2009, 16:22
That's so ironic, my computer screen's rusted over.



I would assume no election fraud, and then not shooting the protesters. Am I right, NM?
I was told by another poster about how NM is annoying. He was a flamebaiter then. At least I don't flamebait all the time.
No Names Left Damn It
20-06-2009, 18:28
I was told by another poster about how NM is annoying.

Make your own mind up for once, instead of letting other people doing it for you.

He was a flamebaiter then. At least I don't flamebait all the time.

I wouldn't say New Mitanni flamebaits, rather that he has strong views on every issue, and those views are often the opposite of the Liberal majority of NSG.
Tmutarakhan
21-06-2009, 05:12
How big a sample?

I'm not questioning your result. This "statistical analysis" lark sounds fun, is all.366 election districts are the sample. The lead digits should be distributed according to "Benford's Law", and the discrepancies from the Benford pattern have only some tiny probability like 1 in 10,000 of occurring by chance fluctuations.
On fivethirtyeight.com there is more thorough discussion: Nate Silver gives an example of how Benford's Law can fail; in the Minnesota Senate race, Al Franken's precinct totals show an improbable excess of 4's, 5's, and 6's, which can be explained because the precincts are intended to be mostly about 1000 voters each and the percentage for Franken is about 50% plus or minus all over. In Iran, the 366 districts are of all different sizes and the percentage support for each candidate is highly variable by region, so the same mechanism as in the Franken case would not explain what's happening. Maybe there is something else, but it is hard to come up with something that preferentially gives an excess of 7's only, no boost to 6's and 8's, except the obvious one of humans pulling numbers out of their ass.
Behaved
22-06-2009, 18:53
Make your own mind up for once, instead of letting other people doing it for you.



I wouldn't say New Mitanni flamebaits, rather that he has strong views on every issue, and those views are often the opposite of the Liberal majority of NSG.
I found it annoying when he kept calling Obama "The Dark Lord" because that's not his name.