NationStates Jolt Archive

With a slightly bigger bang this time.


There have been expressions of international outrage after North Korea said it had successfully carried out a underground nuclear test.

US President Barack Obama described the North Korean action as a "threat to international peace".

South Korea and Japan called the test unacceptable and joined the US in demanding international action.

A number of external agencies confirmed an explosion, probably associated with a nuclear test, had taken place.

It appeared to be a much more powerful blast than North Korea's first nuclear test, in October 2006.

An emergency session of the UN Security Council is being convened by Russia, which currently occupies the council's rotating presidency.

BBC world affairs correspondent David Loyn says North Korea appears to have moved from a posture of negotiation to confrontation over the nuclear issue.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8066861.stm


So, what does everyone think? NK going "Give us more stuff, or we'll make another bang", or are they prepping up for a real conflict?

I just read a really good article about what the North really wants, and what it wants is to survive. It knows it's going down the toilet. It knows that it is going to have to open up to market reforms or else it will simply implode, what it wants more than anything is a US guarantee not that the US won't attack, but that the US will keep the current government in power.

No, I don't think North Korea is going to war any time soon, but I do think that they are getting desperate in trying to get what they want and in the way that they want.

Japan's reaction scares me.


JAPANESE CHIEF CABINET SECRETARY TAKEO KAWAMURA

It is absolutely unacceptable. Japan will take stern action against North Korea.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8066676.stm

I just read a really good article about what the North really wants, and what it wants is to survive. It knows it's going down the toilet. It knows that it is going to have to open up to market reforms or else it will simply implode, what it wants more than anything is a US guarantee not that the US won't attack, but that the US will keep the current government in power.

No, I don't think North Korea is going to war any time soon, but I do think that they are getting desperate in trying to get what they want and in the way that they want.

Maybe so, but it's hard to say for certain given the cult of personality that has been built up around the Kim dynasty. We saw how strong a grip that sort of worship can create on anyone's mind, even if they started it as a scam to begin with, with Ron Hubbard.

The military commanders probably have a better head on their shoulders, but who can say for certain that they'd be able to see the upcoming collapse?

Japan's reaction scares me.



http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8066676.stm
Um... why does it scare you?

Um... why does it scare you?

Giant Hello Kitty robots marching toward North Korea is enough to terrify any sane person

The lynchpin here is that China doesn't stand for it either. China is the hand on North Korea's leash. Let's wait and watch.

The sheer wastefulness that is testing nuclear weapons when there isn't enough food, shelter or power to meet the needs of the NK populace is astounding.

The sheer wastefulness that is testing nuclear weapons when there isn't enough food, shelter or power to meet the needs of the NK populace is astounding.

Showing the world you have a big nuclear penis is more important that feeding your people, obviously.

The sheer wastefulness that is testing nuclear weapons when there isn't enough food, shelter or power to meet the needs of the NK populace is astounding.

Every country has this sort of waste to some degree. North Korea just does it bigger.

You have to wonder though, how long they can keep it up before they collapse, and how grisly the death toll will be before and when it happens.

Japan's reaction scares me.



http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/8066676.stm

Hey, N. Korea lobbed a missile towards Japan (or was it over) awhile back, so I don't really blame Japan for talking like this.

The lynchpin here is that China doesn't stand for it either. China is the hand on North Korea's leash. Let's wait and watch.

Kim will meet an "unfortunate" death, and his regime will be replaced by one that China approves?

I just read a really good article about what the North really wants, and what it wants is to survive. It knows it's going down the toilet. It knows that it is going to have to open up to market reforms or else it will simply implode, what it wants more than anything is a US guarantee not that the US won't attack, but that the US will keep the current government in power.

No, I don't think North Korea is going to war any time soon, but I do think that they are getting desperate in trying to get what they want and in the way that they want.

^this^. Absolutely.

Solution: help NK out of its economical crisis and out of famine. After that, we'll talk about the other human rights - other, I mean, than everybody having something to eat.

Maybe so, but it's hard to say for certain given the cult of personality that has been built up around the Kim dynasty. We saw how strong a grip that sort of worship can create on anyone's mind, even if they started it as a scam to begin with, with Ron Hubbard.

NK, the commie variant of Scientology? :p

urge to support air strikes rising.

Solution: help NK out of its economical crisis and out of famine. After that, we'll talk about the other human rights - other, I mean, than everybody having something to eat.

pah in case you missed it the food aid is just sold on the streets I don't think we should have any obligation to continue delivering aid to such states when there are so many more out there who actually (dare I say it) deserve our help

NK is turning out to be one pretty cool guy at the moment.

NK is turning out to be one pretty cool guy at the moment.

setting off nukes and doesn't afraid of anyone.

I don't understand why Obama is talking about illegal weapons* when he's pointing at the nuclear penis of NK.
Why is that penis illegal when you have thousands of nuclear penises in your own pant?

Can one explain this in sane words?

"North Korea will not find security and respect through to threats and illegal weapons."

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2009/05/president-ob-15.html

Well first i want to congratulate North Korea for all effort on this and success.
Agricultural ,enregy and other things about NK i leave to NKoreans...
Dough trough the use of some (Amerikan technology) new genetic modified crops and nuclear powerstation will help this issue,resolve.

Second i dont understan people who say nations should do nothing and stay at backward technology ,while few states go full forward...and have the "morals" to prevent others having it.
After all only country who used nuclear weapons was usa -twice!
And spare me that b.s. it was neccecary evil ,bla,bla...

With Irans success in satelite launch with rocket derived from north koreas taepo -dong ,and this new second test of smaller and more efficient warhead.
how many ICBMs will this 2 new nuclear powers posess by 2010 ? 10? 50?
Who would have thought ,just a few years ago....

SNIP

iirc North Korea has broken agreements with 6 party for its nuclear programs so I guess treaty breaking is sorta illegal :confused:

I fail to see, whether you are pro-American or not, stand on the left or the right, how one could think the further spread of nuclear weapons is a good thing. . .

So even China are not pleased - N Korea really are isolated internationally. It must be so ronery...

So even China are not pleased - N Korea really are isolated internationally. It must be so ronery...

you really belive that?
that was just posturing for the americans to see...:p

you really belive that?
that was just posturing for the americans to see...:p
No, not everything is about 'the Americans' . . . stop being so blind. China has nothing to gain from a hypothetical military conflict against NK (from SK or NATO or US or whatever), in fact it already has to deal with refugees from NK that would only increase in a war . . .

JAPAN RETALIATES !!!!
Just now...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_12E1EN6fs

No, not everything is about 'the Americans' . . . stop being so blind. China has nothing to gain from a hypothetical military conflict against NK (from SK or NATO or US or whatever), in fact it already has to deal with refugees from NK that would only increase in a war . . .
china has everything to gain incase south korea becommes communist too.
they already helped NKoreans once before.
but your turning tables is in vein,no such attack will come.
i think with nukes and ICBMs NKorea has just secured itself against any kind of reckless attack by amerikanes.:p

Agricultural ,energy and other things about NK i leave to NKoreans...

ah yes lets politely ignore the issues North Korea has and just focus on its amazing feat of detonating nuclear weapons in a still tense situation, I wonder what NK would do if South Korea did the same?

Dough trough the use of some (Amerikan technology) new genetic modified crops and nuclear powerstation will help this issue,resolve.

I don't see how new technology will fix a broken economic model and a party who's only interest is staying in power through barbarism

Second i dont understan people who say nations should do nothing and stay at backward technology ,while few states go full forward...and have the "morals" to prevent others having it.

I don't see how developing nuclear weapons is progress when the only thing they seem to do is up the stakes and bankrupt the nations that build them

you'll also note the nations that don't have a nuclear arsenal yet seem perfectly capable of living in the modern world

After all only country who used nuclear weapons was usa -twice!
And spare me that b.s. it was neccecary evil ,bla,bla...

baww the big nasty USA is stomping on the peaceful military authoritarian people of Korea

With Irans success in satelite launch with rocket derived from north koreas taepo -dong ,and this new second test of smaller and more efficient warhead.
how many ICBMs will this 2 new nuclear powers posess by 2010 ? 10? 50?
Who would have thought ,just a few years ago....

considering North Korea has been trying to get the bomb for what 50 years now you have to wonder just how backwards they are when the first atom bombs of a higher yield where developed in what 10 years during the 1930-40's

also seriously use spellcheck it was most headache inducing translating

China proposed division of Pacific, Indian Ocean regions, we declined: US Admiral

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Indian Express.com

May 15, 2009

New Delhi:


In a startling disclosure, a top US Admiral has revealed that China offered to divide the Pacific and Indian Ocean regions between China and the US after Beijing launched its own fleet of aircraft carriers.



The offer was made by an unnamed top Chinese Navy officer while discussing the country’s ongoing aircraft carrier programme, one of the senior-most officers of the US military, Pacific Command (PACOM) chief Admiral Timothy J Keating said. He added that the incident was disclosed to Indian Navy chief Admiral Sureesh Mehta during their meeting on Thursday.



Keating said that the offer, which was made somewhat “tongue in cheek” was declined by the US but the top Chinese officer indicated that Beijing would pursue the development of aircraft carrier technology.



“We (Keating and Mehta) talked a little about the potential development of a Chinese aircraft carrier. I related (to Mehta) a conversation I had with a senior Chinese Naval officer during which he proposed, in his words, that as China builds aircraft carriers — he said plural — we can make a deal,” the PACOM chief said after meeting the top Indian military leadership besides the National Security Advisor and Foreign Secretary.

The proposed “deal” envisaged that after China has its own aircraft carriers — it remains the only major naval power currently without such a capability — the Pacific region could be divided into two areas of responsibility.



“(The Chinese officer said) You, the US, take Hawaii East and we, China, will take Hawai West and the Indian Ocean. Then you will not need to come to the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean and we will not need to go to the Eastern Pacific. If anything happens there, you can let us know and if something happens here, we will let you know,” Keating recalled.

“(The Chinese officer said) You, the US, take Hawaii East and we, China, will take Hawai West and the Indian Ocean. Then you will not need to come to the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean and we will not need to go to the Eastern Pacific. If anything happens there, you can let us know and if something happens here, we will let you know,” Keating recalled.

and how does China plan on policing everything East of Hawaii? I wonder what they plan would be if Japan sank their navy overnight (or rather just sat their as China has no blue water navy)

hell I don't even beleive the source its that high on space dust

china has everything to gain incase south korea becommes communist too.
they already helped NKoreans once before.
but your turning tables is in vein,no such attack will come.
i think with nukes and ICBMs NKorea has just secured itself against any kind of reckless attack by amerikanes.:p
What the hell kind of world are you living in? South Korea is not going to go communist? And I don't know if you know this (I doubt you do because you seem to fail in this debate so far) but the China of the 1950's is HIGHLY different from modern China.

Honestly go read a book and stop your anti-American gloating.

well i posted it as an example of amerikanos warmongering,and sucking to indians.
..and hows it aktually worse then NKorea.
Like chineese yould say such a thing to US admiral in open (or private) anyways...

well i posted it as an example of amerikanos warmongering,and sucking to indians.
..and hows it aktually worse then NKorea.
Like chineese yould say such a thing to US admiral in open (or private) anyways...
Ugh, you give me a headache. Come back to the discussion when you can provide coherent arguments . . . seriously.

ah yes lets politely ignore the issues North Korea has and just focus on its amazing feat of detonating nuclear weapons in a still tense situation, I wonder what NK would do if South Korea did the same?

Who cares?

I don't see how new technology will fix a broken economic model and a party who's only interest is staying in power through barbarism

Ahh but maybe selling nuclear tech and ICBMs to other countries willing to pay will make this economic modell a complete success

I don't see how developing nuclear weapons is progress when the only thing they seem to do is up the stakes and bankrupt the nations that build them
I am sureNKoreans are really interested in what you see or dont see...
Theirs agendas is probably not for your eyes only:p

you'll also note the nations that don't have a nuclear arsenal yet seem perfectly capable of living in the modern world
If you suck up to big players ...sure.
Be a bannana state if you wish ,some choose other way...


baww the big nasty USA is stomping on the peaceful military authoritarian people of Korea

Well they dont occupy vast countries ...yet....

considering North Korea has been trying to get the bomb for what 50 years now you have to wonder just how backwards they are when the first atom bombs of a higher yield where developed in what 10 years during the 1930-40's
What ever...This shous your knolege about NKoreas nuklear program is 0
also seriously use spellcheck it was most headache inducing translating
Like i care....

...

1) if you mean who cares about North Korea's blatent disregard for the wellbeing of its people then I suppose you could say civilization and its rather important as its what gives a regime its legitimacy

2) not really it will just mean the Earth will stomp on you...that is if North Korea can even sell nuclear technology Pakistan certainly hasn't pulled it off

3) what so your suggesting North Korea is going to follow its policy of confrontation in the hopes that it will magically make the world friendly to it

4) isn't it weird how sucking up to the big players often involves crazy things like human rights and logic (not that North Korea has ever not been a Sino-Russian bitch)

but have no fear the neutral Swiss is here!

5) and will they ever?

6) are you suggesting that North Korea has a super secret nuclear program that has crazy shit like missiles with arms and legs that hug the targets to death?

7) you should do as it makes you look rather unintelligent and American

...

you can separate out a text to individually pick parts by:

1) copy the quote opening (for this example) [QUOTE=SERBIJANAC;14815557]

2) then at the end of the part put in the [quote] that comes at the end of the post

3) saves me a ton on time

My eyes!

Reading Serbijanac's posts is like rubbing your brain with a cheese grater.

NK, the commie variant of Scientology? :p

Well think about it. Dissent is not allowed in the NK ideology. Dissent is the product of enemies out to destroy NK. The Kim family are revered as practical gods (by the masses at least). Everything must be given to the state. Compared to Co$, their methods and structures are pretty much the same no?

I don't understand why Obama is talking about illegal weapons* when he's pointing at the nuclear penis of NK.
Why is that penis illegal when you have thousands of nuclear penises in your own pant?

Can one explain this in sane words?I agree 100% :)

I don't understand why Obama is talking about illegal weapons* when he's pointing at the nuclear penis of NK.
Why is that penis illegal when you have thousands of nuclear penises in your own pant?

Can one explain this in sane words?

"North Korea will not find security and respect through to threats and illegal weapons."

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2009/05/president-ob-15.html
The US doesn't have a number of UN Security Council resolutions that forbid them from having nuclear arms, not to mention the US didn't sign up as a non-nuclear state under various treaties and agreed NOT to develop nukes.

I guess the real tell about this is what China does. If it cuts off the electric or someshit again then NK is obviously doing this to piss everyone off.

If China is silent, and doesn't do anything to NK, then it was probably their idea. I get impression that the PRC is super duper uber pissed at the US and co. right now, so this could be cage rattling.

I get impression that the PRC is super duper uber pissed at the US and co. right now, so this could be cage rattling.

Over what though?

Over what though?

They are angry at a variety of things I'd say. Some linger resentment over stuff that's been going on for years, but mostly because they see the US (and the other debtor nations) as trying to devalue their currencies through quantitative easing (printing).

They own a lot of that, so they aren't best pleased I'd imagine. They've made some pretty strong statements about it in fact. I'm not an avid China watcher, but apparently it's rare for them to be so outspoken in public and this indicates a lot of pissed offness, or at least so I am told.

The way I figure it, this could be sending a message to the US that it can't afford to burn it's bridges with the PRC.

The thing is, there has been no plans to attack NK. (athough you probably can't convince a NK citizen of that)

Maybe at this point, the best defense against NK is to ignore them. This is just a show to gain popularity amongst his people and more bargaining power against the US. (So's Iran will not have all the bargaining power)

I guess the real tell about this is what China does. If it cuts off the electric or someshit again then NK is obviously doing this to piss everyone off.

If China is silent, and doesn't do anything to NK, then it was probably their idea. I get impression that the PRC is super duper uber pissed at the US and co. right now, so this could be cage rattling.
The thing is though, when the PRC is annoyed at America, it doesn'T have any problems with saying so right to America, using NK doesn't seem to be their usual way of delivering a message, especially as their control over NK is not as strong as many think it is.

The thing is though, when the PRC is annoyed at America, it doesn'T have any problems with saying so right to America, using NK doesn't seem to be their usual way of delivering a message, especially as their control over NK is not as strong as many think it is.

Particularly true since I seem to remember NK deciding to nick the Chinese trains loaded with food aid for them once. China got really pissed off over that.

Maybe that cult of personality is really pushing the leadership over the edge?

The thing is though, when the PRC is annoyed at America, it doesn'T have any problems with saying so right to America, using NK doesn't seem to be their usual way of delivering a message, especially as their control over NK is not as strong as many think it is.

Yeah, it does have a problem. At least doing it publicly in any case. Certainly last year it kept quiet about the whole GSE issue for example. (More or less).

The other thing is that there has been a change in administration in the US recently. Henry Paulson had a lot of contact with their bigwigs both before and during his period as treasury sec. Not that the current admin doesn't have people with China connections, but they might not be as intimate or current, so it might explain the change in posture a bit.

Even ignoring all that, the fact remains that they have said they want us to stop printing. Several times, and quite publicly. And guess what? The US is still printing. I look at this - and the missile test - as a warning to the US that it cannot do whatever it wants and not expect some consequences. (Not that China will provoke a war, but this is a reminder that the US is in terrible fiscal shape to get into any type of fresh conflict right now, especially if it pisses off all its creditors).

I agree that NK isn't under complete Chinese domination. But they have a lot more say in what goes on there than anyone else. I think NK got that message when the oil was cut off in 2003.

Yeah, it does have a problem. At least doing it publicly in any case. Certainly last year it kept quiet about the whole GSE issue for example. (More or less).

The other thing is that there has been a change in administration in the US recently. Henry Paulson had a lot of contact with their bigwigs both before and during his period as treasury sec. Not that the current admin doesn't have people with China connections, but they might not be as intimate or current, so it might explain the change in posture a bit.

Even ignoring all that, the fact remains that they have said they want us to stop printing. Several times, and quite publicly. And guess what? The US is still printing. I look at this - and the missile test - as a warning to the US that it cannot do whatever it wants and not expect some consequences. (Not that China will provoke a war, but this is a reminder that the US is in terrible fiscal shape to get into any type of fresh conflict right now, especially if it pisses off all its creditors).

I agree that NK isn't under complete Chinese domination. But they have a lot more say in what goes on there than anyone else. I think NK got that message when the oil was cut off in 2003.
If it wanted to do that, all it has to do is stress the straight.

The other thing is that there has been a change in administration in the US recently. Henry Paulson had a lot of contact with their bigwigs both before and during his period as treasury sec. Not that the current admin doesn't have people with China connections, but they might not be as intimate or current, so it might explain the change in posture a bit.


You got a point. Hillary visited China and the Chinese stopped buying long term bonds.

If it wanted to do that, all it has to do is stress the straight.

That opens up a whole host of potential other problems though, not least of which is backing the US into doing something neither side wants, like a trade embargo or someshit.

Acting through a third party lets everyone pretend that all decisions were taken completely freely.

Its time for a complete air and naval blockade, surgical strikes on any missile that NK tips up on a pad and cease all forms of aid and let the country implode on itself.

Its time to send a message to Iran that even if they manage to get nukes its not a get out of jail free card and a free pass to be an asshole.

Its time to send a message to Iran that even if they manage to get nukes its not a get out of jail free card and a free pass to be an asshole.

Whaat, you mean like every other nuclear possessor? To be fair, Iran is nowhere near as much of a basket case as NK is.

pah in case you missed it the food aid is just sold on the streets I don't think we should have any obligation to continue delivering aid to such states when there are so many more out there who actually (dare I say it) deserve our help

Like, dunno, Pakistan? A country who actually started wars, refines a lot of heroine, has islamic fundamentalists taking over parts of it, has lots of poverty, a nuclear arsenal and ballistic missiles - but hey, they're allies of the west so we have to give them money and stuff... :rolleyes:

Really, NK is SO small that actually giving in some more aid and releasing the embargo will cost very little and undermine effectively the junta's grip on the country.

Like, dunno, Pakistan? A country who actually started wars, refines a lot of heroine

I prefer a refined heroine to the other kind.

Really, NK is SO small that actually giving in some more aid and releasing the embargo will cost very little and undermine effectively the junta's grip on the country.

The only problem with no embargo and aid is that I suspect the government would just seize all of it and use it to feed themselves and their army, and even if oversupplied, they'd just keep the excess food and let it rot than feed their people.

The only problem with no embargo and aid is that I suspect the government would just seize all of it and use it to feed themselves and their army, and even if oversupplied, they'd just keep the excess food and let it rot than feed their people.

This could also be: still, usually when you put a lot of resources (expecially non-food aid, but structural aid, like fuel, power stations - the things that NK required some years ago in exchange for stopping their nuclear program) in a system that's geared on power to the military and poverty for everyone else, the system collapses as the power groups fight each other over the control of the newly available resources.
And I think that we would all be happier if NK's junta were to collapse.

This could also be: still, usually when you put a lot of resources (expecially non-food aid, but structural aid, like fuel, power stations - the things that NK required some years ago in exchange for stopping their nuclear program) in a system that's geared on power to the military and poverty for everyone else, the system collapses as the power groups fight each other over the control of the newly available resources.
And I think that we would all be happier if NK's junta were to collapse.

That relies on there being a big enough division in the power groups to justify that kind of infighting. So far, we've seen nothing big. That means either the Kim dynasty has a grip so strong the military leadership cannot fight back or that whatever infighting they do is very quiet and not disruptive enough to threaten their power structure.

I suppose you could try to quietly encourage that sort of infighting to get bigger, but it's an uncertain gamble at best.

The worst case scenario is that they're like the Myanmar junta. Fat and happy with everything they get and unwilling to rock the boat.

First, I would like to congratulate the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the World's Original Communist Monarchy, (suck it Castro's, you're only second--neener neener neener) on finally figuring out how to detonate a nuke correctly.

This could also be: still, usually when you put a lot of resources (expecially non-food aid, but structural aid, like fuel, power stations - the things that NK required some years ago in exchange for stopping their nuclear program) in a system that's geared on power to the military and poverty for everyone else, the system collapses as the power groups fight each other over the control of the newly available resources.
And I think that we would all be happier if NK's junta were to collapse.

As it stands, the current power hierarchies in the North Korean state tend to be too stable and established at this point in time for any destabilization effort to have a reasonable chance of success. If and when Kim dies, without a clear cession of power, then it might prove to be an effective way to destabilize the state, but until such a shift occurs, then giving them structural aid now will likely only serve to undermine the shock effect of such structural aid in the future. If you've got the right bower, you don't play it on the first trick.

That relies on there being a big enough division in the power groups to justify that kind of infighting. So far, we've seen nothing big. That means either the Kim dynasty has a grip so strong the military leadership cannot fight back or that whatever infighting they do is very quiet and not disruptive enough to threaten their power structure.
Or they have too little to fight about.


I suppose you could try to quietly encourage that sort of infighting to get bigger, but it's an uncertain gamble at best.
The worst case scenario is that they're like the Myanmar junta. Fat and happy with everything they get and unwilling to rock the boat.

You have a good point... still it's better than resorting to embargo, famine, or war.

Or they have too little to fight about.

Unified interests and a rather solid power structure based on a rewards system to loyal interests--it's doubtful that they'd fight about much.

You have a good point... still it's better than resorting to embargo, famine, or war.

They're already embargoed. They'd have a famine either way, and war runs directly contrary to the regimes interests, as a war with the ROK and allies would likely result in the destruction of the regime.

I prefer a refined heroine to the other kind.

Certainly adds piquancy to the bodice ripping...

Continuing on the whole kaboodle, NK declares war. Or at least their intention to go back to war if things go on the way they are.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8069457.stm

Continuing on the whole kaboodle, NK declares war. Or at least their intention to go back to war if things go on the way they are.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8069457.stm
China does indeed seem to be pissed at the latest developments. There is speculation that this saber rattling is Kim's way of getting the military behind him to back his chosen successor, probably his third son.

China does indeed seem to be pissed at the latest developments. There is speculation that this saber rattling is Kim's way of getting the military behind him to back his chosen successor, probably his third son.

Hmm, think he's setting things up for a point of no return moment? A "Support my successor or the capitalists will swoop in on our infighting and destroy us" move.

Wonder what China will do to bring him to heel though. Maybe just cut off all aid.