Stargate Centurion
06-05-2009, 00:35
Fears of Yemen turning into another Afghanistan (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090503/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_yemen_al_qaida).
I'll admit, I hadn't heard anything about this. Some interesting stuff in the article.
The United States shares the Saudis' fear. Gen. David Petraeus, head of the U.S. Central Command, told Congress in April that the weakness of Yemen's government provides al-Qaida a safe haven and that terror groups could "threaten Yemen's neighbors, especially Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states."
Yemen is the Arab world's poorest nation — and one of its most unstable — making it fertile territory for al-Qaida to set up camp. The country is also in a strategic location, next door to some of the world's most important oil producing nations. It also lies just across the Gulf of Aden from Somalia, an even more tumultuous nation where the U.S. has said militants from the terror network have been increasing their activity.
Al-Qaida militants, including fighters returning from Afghanistan and Iraq, have established sanctuaries among a number of Yemeni tribes, particularly ones in three provinces bordering Saudi Arabia known as the "triangle of evil" because of the heavy militant presence, Yemeni authorities say.
I personally had no idea that Yemen was the poorest nation in the Arab world. Perhaps this means that it is semi-likely something might happen here? In all honesty, Yemen is one of the countries I'm not very familiar with, so it might just be me.
In January, militants announced the creation of al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, a merger between the terror network's Yemeni and Saudi branches, led by Naser Abdel-Karim al-Wahishi, a Yemeni who was once a close aide to Osama bin Laden. Over the past year, al-Qaida has been blamed for a string of attacks, including an armed assault in September on the U.S. Embassy in San'a, as well as two suicide bombings targeting South Korean visitors in March.
If al-Qaeda has already done multiple attacks in the country, that could mean that the government would work with us?
"You are the triangle of good, giving and loyal men. Fight terrorism and don't ignore it," Saleh told tribal members in Mareb province. "Does anyone here want to take us back to square one? To the days of ignorance, poverty and isolation?"
It would seem so.
Yemen lies on a trade route, however, so what frightens me is the following:
But the difference now is that rather than just carrying out attacks in Yemen, a new generation of al-Qaida militants appears to be trying to establish a longterm presence here, uniting Yemenis returning from fighting in Iraq and Saudis fleeing the kingdom's crackdown. They have openly declared their aim to overthrow Saleh for his joining Washington's war on terror.
Unlike Afghanistan under the Taliban, al-Qaida doesn't have a government supporting it in Yemen. But it doesn't necessarily need it. Government control is weak over much of the mountainous, desert nation. Many areas are lawless, weapons are plentiful, and rampant poverty — which is worsening with falling oil prices — makes recruiting militants easy.
Many tribes are disgruntled with the government, and can be paid to provide havens for militants. Abdul-Karim al-Eryani, a political adviser to Saleh, says that the miltiants seem to be well-funded and that security forces are reluctant to move strongly against them because then "it becomes a war between the state and the tribes, which is not advisable."
If Yemen fell to an opposing force, that could mean a danger for international shipping - the Gulf of Aden is a rather important trade route. Beyond that, I'm somewhat doubtful *because* Yemen does not have a government that supports Al-Qaeda - it is more difficult to gain ground/control.
It seems like the Yemeni government would work against Al-Qaeda, however: (http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL425674420090504)
SANAA, May 4 (Reuters) - A Yemeni court sentenced four men to up to three years in jail on Monday for belonging to al Qaeda and planning attacks on foreign tourists.
Yemen has battled a wave of al Qaeda attacks over the past year, as well as secessionist sentiment in the south which led to clashes this week that provoked a rare call by the U.S. embassy for the parties to act to keep Yemen united.
The latter part is not a joke, it seems: (http://mypetjawa.mu.nu/archives/197537.php)
On Sunday, the US Embassy in Sana’a issued a statement on the political violence in southern Yemen that claimed eight lives last week. The US stressed that “Yemen’s unity depends on its ability to guarantee every citizen equal treatment under the law...” What the Yemeni government calls unity, the protesters call occupation.
Since protests erupted in south Yemen in May 2007, dozens were killed, hundreds injured and over a thousand arrested. As police shot into the crowds, southern claims of institutionalized discrimination turned into calls for independence. After regional protest marches last week, Yemen began shelling of the town of Radfan. Some southerners took up arms for the first time.
Southern grievances include overt theft of public and private land by Northern officials, the embezzlement of oil revenues and the subjugation of the south after Yemen’s 1994 civil war.
[...]
What the international community must recognize is that the primary dysfunction in Yemen is the criminalization of the state. The current bloodshed in the south, the resurgence of al Qaeda, the northern rebellion all have roots in the failure of the state to act in the public interest. As Yemeni officials thwart reforms and subvert the law to protect illicit profit flows, poverty and frustration grows.
Yemen is one of the most water scarce countries in the world, but the implementation of water strategies proves impossible time and time again. The city of Taiz gets water once every 40 days, and water barons reap the profits of thirst.
The electric, medical and education sectors are equally perverted by corruption. Half of citizens have no medical service, and what exists is poor. Over 70% of medicine in Yemen is either counterfeit or smuggled. Medicine donated to the Health Ministry disappears from the shelves. Three quarters of women give birth without a doctor. There is a lethal shortage of dialysis machines.
Unpacking regional concerns, piracy, violence in Somalia and criminal networks of drug smuggling, gun running and human trafficking all have a Yemen component.
Somali pirates hide their mother ships in Yemen’s waters. NATO Commander, Admiral Mark Fitzgerald said the pirates receive “a lot of the logistical supplies” from Yemen. Pirates say they receive information on ship location from Yemeni collaborators.
The UN committee that monitors the arms embargo on Somalia found Yemen to be the primary source of illegal arms and ammunition. Yemen’s inability to stem the large scale arms trafficking is "a key obstacle to the restoration of peace and security to Somalia," the panel determined.
[...]
Narcotics from Pakistan, Iran and Syria, including millions of Keptagon tablets and tons of hashish, enter Yemen and flood the Gulf States. Yemeni children are sold to beg in Saudi Arabia and have their kidney's harvested in Egypt. In some border villages, one third of children are missing.
Poverty drives child smuggling. Yemeni children are among the hungriest on earth. But foreign aid, like oil revenue, is subject to elite capture. Yemen can't effectively absorb the aid it has and pays interest on unused loans.
The US supports “a stable, unified, and democratic Yemen.” Yemenis chose a democratic system in 1990, but they haven’t seen it yet. What exists in Yemen is a criminal enterprise that bombs its own people, smuggles weapons, frees terrorists and kidnaps journalists.
It's not the most unbiased source, but if even some of those things are true, Yemen, it would seem, has a potential to become a stronghold for someone anti-US. What do you think? If Yemen truly is an issue, the way President Obama handles Yemen will tell us a lot about his policies - I doubt it'll be militarily - the most effective possibility is probably to alleviate the issues plaguing Yemen as a whole. The US has gotten in trouble with their support of unpopular governments in the Middle East in the past (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) and W. did very little to change that. One of Obama's pledges (http://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/foreign_policy/) has been to restore America's place in the world and re-energize their foreign alliances (as well as bring peace to the Middle East).
It would seem to me that this crisis (if it is indeed a crisis) in Yemen could be worked to his advantage. Obama has enjoyed extreme popularity in the Middle East (http://www.newsmax.com/international/obama_muslim_world/2009/04/08/201285.html), and this could be a way for him to validate opinions of him held by many:
"He's a modest person with a humanitarian view on world issues, particularly those relating to the Arab and Islamic worlds," said Jamal Dahan, a 50-year-old resident of the Lebanese capital Beirut.
If he could manage to either restore Yemen's economy/country somehow or even bring a new government into power that would (or support a process internally that might succeed at doing so), he could possibly end the threat of terrorism (and, by extension, that of the Gulf of Aden being threatened) and gain support in the Middle East.
What do you think? Is solving Yemen a good idea? How can it be solved? Does it really have a chance at becoming a stronghold of Islamic extremism?
I'll admit, I hadn't heard anything about this. Some interesting stuff in the article.
The United States shares the Saudis' fear. Gen. David Petraeus, head of the U.S. Central Command, told Congress in April that the weakness of Yemen's government provides al-Qaida a safe haven and that terror groups could "threaten Yemen's neighbors, especially Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states."
Yemen is the Arab world's poorest nation — and one of its most unstable — making it fertile territory for al-Qaida to set up camp. The country is also in a strategic location, next door to some of the world's most important oil producing nations. It also lies just across the Gulf of Aden from Somalia, an even more tumultuous nation where the U.S. has said militants from the terror network have been increasing their activity.
Al-Qaida militants, including fighters returning from Afghanistan and Iraq, have established sanctuaries among a number of Yemeni tribes, particularly ones in three provinces bordering Saudi Arabia known as the "triangle of evil" because of the heavy militant presence, Yemeni authorities say.
I personally had no idea that Yemen was the poorest nation in the Arab world. Perhaps this means that it is semi-likely something might happen here? In all honesty, Yemen is one of the countries I'm not very familiar with, so it might just be me.
In January, militants announced the creation of al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula, a merger between the terror network's Yemeni and Saudi branches, led by Naser Abdel-Karim al-Wahishi, a Yemeni who was once a close aide to Osama bin Laden. Over the past year, al-Qaida has been blamed for a string of attacks, including an armed assault in September on the U.S. Embassy in San'a, as well as two suicide bombings targeting South Korean visitors in March.
If al-Qaeda has already done multiple attacks in the country, that could mean that the government would work with us?
"You are the triangle of good, giving and loyal men. Fight terrorism and don't ignore it," Saleh told tribal members in Mareb province. "Does anyone here want to take us back to square one? To the days of ignorance, poverty and isolation?"
It would seem so.
Yemen lies on a trade route, however, so what frightens me is the following:
But the difference now is that rather than just carrying out attacks in Yemen, a new generation of al-Qaida militants appears to be trying to establish a longterm presence here, uniting Yemenis returning from fighting in Iraq and Saudis fleeing the kingdom's crackdown. They have openly declared their aim to overthrow Saleh for his joining Washington's war on terror.
Unlike Afghanistan under the Taliban, al-Qaida doesn't have a government supporting it in Yemen. But it doesn't necessarily need it. Government control is weak over much of the mountainous, desert nation. Many areas are lawless, weapons are plentiful, and rampant poverty — which is worsening with falling oil prices — makes recruiting militants easy.
Many tribes are disgruntled with the government, and can be paid to provide havens for militants. Abdul-Karim al-Eryani, a political adviser to Saleh, says that the miltiants seem to be well-funded and that security forces are reluctant to move strongly against them because then "it becomes a war between the state and the tribes, which is not advisable."
If Yemen fell to an opposing force, that could mean a danger for international shipping - the Gulf of Aden is a rather important trade route. Beyond that, I'm somewhat doubtful *because* Yemen does not have a government that supports Al-Qaeda - it is more difficult to gain ground/control.
It seems like the Yemeni government would work against Al-Qaeda, however: (http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKL425674420090504)
SANAA, May 4 (Reuters) - A Yemeni court sentenced four men to up to three years in jail on Monday for belonging to al Qaeda and planning attacks on foreign tourists.
Yemen has battled a wave of al Qaeda attacks over the past year, as well as secessionist sentiment in the south which led to clashes this week that provoked a rare call by the U.S. embassy for the parties to act to keep Yemen united.
The latter part is not a joke, it seems: (http://mypetjawa.mu.nu/archives/197537.php)
On Sunday, the US Embassy in Sana’a issued a statement on the political violence in southern Yemen that claimed eight lives last week. The US stressed that “Yemen’s unity depends on its ability to guarantee every citizen equal treatment under the law...” What the Yemeni government calls unity, the protesters call occupation.
Since protests erupted in south Yemen in May 2007, dozens were killed, hundreds injured and over a thousand arrested. As police shot into the crowds, southern claims of institutionalized discrimination turned into calls for independence. After regional protest marches last week, Yemen began shelling of the town of Radfan. Some southerners took up arms for the first time.
Southern grievances include overt theft of public and private land by Northern officials, the embezzlement of oil revenues and the subjugation of the south after Yemen’s 1994 civil war.
[...]
What the international community must recognize is that the primary dysfunction in Yemen is the criminalization of the state. The current bloodshed in the south, the resurgence of al Qaeda, the northern rebellion all have roots in the failure of the state to act in the public interest. As Yemeni officials thwart reforms and subvert the law to protect illicit profit flows, poverty and frustration grows.
Yemen is one of the most water scarce countries in the world, but the implementation of water strategies proves impossible time and time again. The city of Taiz gets water once every 40 days, and water barons reap the profits of thirst.
The electric, medical and education sectors are equally perverted by corruption. Half of citizens have no medical service, and what exists is poor. Over 70% of medicine in Yemen is either counterfeit or smuggled. Medicine donated to the Health Ministry disappears from the shelves. Three quarters of women give birth without a doctor. There is a lethal shortage of dialysis machines.
Unpacking regional concerns, piracy, violence in Somalia and criminal networks of drug smuggling, gun running and human trafficking all have a Yemen component.
Somali pirates hide their mother ships in Yemen’s waters. NATO Commander, Admiral Mark Fitzgerald said the pirates receive “a lot of the logistical supplies” from Yemen. Pirates say they receive information on ship location from Yemeni collaborators.
The UN committee that monitors the arms embargo on Somalia found Yemen to be the primary source of illegal arms and ammunition. Yemen’s inability to stem the large scale arms trafficking is "a key obstacle to the restoration of peace and security to Somalia," the panel determined.
[...]
Narcotics from Pakistan, Iran and Syria, including millions of Keptagon tablets and tons of hashish, enter Yemen and flood the Gulf States. Yemeni children are sold to beg in Saudi Arabia and have their kidney's harvested in Egypt. In some border villages, one third of children are missing.
Poverty drives child smuggling. Yemeni children are among the hungriest on earth. But foreign aid, like oil revenue, is subject to elite capture. Yemen can't effectively absorb the aid it has and pays interest on unused loans.
The US supports “a stable, unified, and democratic Yemen.” Yemenis chose a democratic system in 1990, but they haven’t seen it yet. What exists in Yemen is a criminal enterprise that bombs its own people, smuggles weapons, frees terrorists and kidnaps journalists.
It's not the most unbiased source, but if even some of those things are true, Yemen, it would seem, has a potential to become a stronghold for someone anti-US. What do you think? If Yemen truly is an issue, the way President Obama handles Yemen will tell us a lot about his policies - I doubt it'll be militarily - the most effective possibility is probably to alleviate the issues plaguing Yemen as a whole. The US has gotten in trouble with their support of unpopular governments in the Middle East in the past (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) and W. did very little to change that. One of Obama's pledges (http://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/foreign_policy/) has been to restore America's place in the world and re-energize their foreign alliances (as well as bring peace to the Middle East).
It would seem to me that this crisis (if it is indeed a crisis) in Yemen could be worked to his advantage. Obama has enjoyed extreme popularity in the Middle East (http://www.newsmax.com/international/obama_muslim_world/2009/04/08/201285.html), and this could be a way for him to validate opinions of him held by many:
"He's a modest person with a humanitarian view on world issues, particularly those relating to the Arab and Islamic worlds," said Jamal Dahan, a 50-year-old resident of the Lebanese capital Beirut.
If he could manage to either restore Yemen's economy/country somehow or even bring a new government into power that would (or support a process internally that might succeed at doing so), he could possibly end the threat of terrorism (and, by extension, that of the Gulf of Aden being threatened) and gain support in the Middle East.
What do you think? Is solving Yemen a good idea? How can it be solved? Does it really have a chance at becoming a stronghold of Islamic extremism?