NationStates Jolt Archive

I ran a simulation I have, and putting all the information in about the Swine flu, it predicted it will begin to die down after 6 months.
What are your predictions of the Swine flu?

Ten percent of the population is going to die. Probably.

I'm guessing everyone will forget about it by June.

We're all going to die by June.

It's going to be overhyped by the media, which will in turn fuel the paranoia that seems to consume most of the public. The rational few who sit on the side lines will wait for it to die down, and after a zealous cull of pigs because you know it's inevitable given the stupidity of people in large crowds, will we be able to say, "you know, it was just an airbourne illness. The food was just fine provided you cooked the pork properly, and those fruits and veggies? They're no more dangerous to you than they were six months ago."

Anyone remember when that asteroid hit Jupiter? Some people thought it'd be nothing, some thought the solar system would be destroyed. It ended up looking pretty neat, but didn't really change much.

It's going to be overhyped by the media, which will in turn fuel the paranoia that seems to consume most of the public. The rational few who sit on the side lines will wait for it to die down, and after a zealous cull of pigs because you know it's inevitable given the stupidity of people in large crowds, will we be able to say, "you know, it was just an airbourne illness. The food was just fine provided you cooked the pork properly, and those fruits and veggies? They're no more dangerous to you than they were six months ago."Yesh, but isn't that the stuff that's actually poisoning us all?

I suspect that people will overreact.

Call it a hunch. ;)

Well given the history of the world it's about time for another pandemic.

Yesh, but isn't that the stuff that's actually poisoning us all?

Actually, those things aren't the source of swine flu. Like human influenza, swine flu is not transmitted by food; it's transmitted through the air. Consuming fruits and vegetables won't make you sick. Unless of course you do something silly like eat rotten fruit or vegetables. Or, with pork, eat it raw or undercooked.

Swine Influenza FAQ (http://www.cbc.ca/health/story/2009/04/24/f-swineflu-faq.html)

Can people catch swine flu from eating pork?

No. Swine flu viruses are not transmitted by food. You cannot get swine flu from eating pork or pork products. You won't get swine flu from handling uncooked pork either. You can get sick from putting uncooked or undercooked pork in your mouth, but you won't get swine flu.

It's also impossible to catch swine flu from eating fruits and vegetables imported from Mexico. Swine flu — like all influenza viruses — is not a food-borne illness.

Actually, those things aren't the source of swine flu. Like human influenza, swine flu is not transmitted by food; it's transmitted through the air. Consuming fruits and vegetables won't make you sick. Unless of course you do something silly like eat rotten fruit or vegetables. Or, with pork, eat it raw or undercooked.

Well, I wasn't thinking swine flu, per se. But fruits and veg? Chock full of poisons that plants have evolved to keep from being eaten!

Well, I wasn't thinking swine flu, per se. But fruits and veg? Chock full of poisons that plants have evolved to keep from being eaten!

:rolleyes: Yes, I'm sure that Granny Smith is plotting your death as we speak... :p

:rolleyes: Yes, I'm sure that Granny Smith is plotting your death as we speak... :p
She was always jealous, cuz I was the schmarterer one :nods:

One of two things:

1 We get a minor outbreak that doesn't go anywhere because the medical types got to it.

2 We get the big flu pandemic and lose a few hundred thousand people worldwide.

This isn't 1918. Flu isn't going to kill a discernable percentage of the population with modern medicinal care.

more people will get sick and it will die down in a month

I ran a simulation I have, and putting all the information in about the Swine flu, it predicted it will begin to die down after 6 months.
What are your predictions of the Swine flu?
This will have slightly less impact on life than SARS. Why? Because we'll come to our senses, remember that SARS was a non-event and continue normal, day-to-day life.

Some will get sick, a few may die, life will go on.

a cure will be available in 6 months.

The reason food is killing people is because China keeps contaminating it with poisons.
Looks like they're trying to bump the rest of us off so they can steal our lands.

Weallgonnadie! We are all gonna die! Eventually. It might take a while, but give it a century or two. That swine flu is a patient hunter, like a tiger with a reputation for patience which it feels the need to live up to.

It's not swine flu. It's Influenza A.

http://www.reuters.com/article/europeCrisis/idUSN30119940


"The World Health Organization said on Thursday it was dropping the "swine flu" designation of the new virus in favor of 'influenza A"

I predict half the population will panic and run in a circle clockwise. The other half will panic counter-clockwise. When the dust settles, more people will be trampled than will get swine flu.

Not many people will die. With the exception of Mexican authorities, everyone caught it too early for it to do any real damage in the US or anywhere else on the planet.

If the US had not caught it so early, the damage and death toll would have been much much greater.

Weallgonnadie! We are all gonna die! Eventually. It might take a while, but give it a century or two. That swine flu is a patient hunter, like a tiger with a reputation for patience which it feels the need to live up to.

I heard that the elderly are particularly at risk and will be the first to go. It causes symptoms like wrinkles, memory loss, chronic nostalgia and less functional organs that will eventually stop.

Here's (http://www.badscience.net/2009/04/parmageddon/#more-1127) an interesting article from badscience, about the snappily-titled Parmageddon and its media coverage.

Important bits for those lacking the will to follow an url:

First it was the emails, and the tweets. This is all nonsense about the aporkalypse, surely? Just like with Sars, and bird flu, and MMR, is this all hype? The answer is no, but more interesting is this: for so many people, their very first assumption on the story is that the media are lying. It is the story of the boy who cried wolf.

We are poorly equipped to think around issues involving risk, and infectious diseases epidemiology is a tricky business: the error margins on the models are wide, and it’s extremely hard to make clear predictions...

All people have done is raise the possibility of things really kicking off, and they are right to do so, but we don’t have brilliantly accurate information. Someone has said that up to 40% of the world could be infected. Is that scaremongering? Well it’s high, and I’m sure it’s a bit of a guess, but maybe up to 40% could be. Annoying, isn’t it, not to know.

Someone has said 120 million could die. Well I suppose they could: I’m sure it was done on the back of an envelope, by guessing how many would be infected, and what proportion would die, but I don’t think anyone’s pretending otherwise...

Everyone is just saying: we don’t know, it could be bad, and the newspapers are reporting that. Sure there’s a bit of vaudeville in the headlines, but they’re not saying things that are wrong, and do you really know actual, real people, normally pretty solid, who are suddenly now panicking?

By Tuesday, pundit-seekers from the media were suddenly contacting me, a massive nobody, to say that swine flu is all nonsense and hype, like some kind of blind, automated naysaying device. “Will you come and talk about the media overhyping swine flu?” asked Case Notes on Radio 4. No. “We need someone to say it’s all been overhyped,” said BBC Wales...

I’m not showing off. I know I’m a D-list public intellectual, but I just think it’s interesting: because not only have the public lost all faith in the media; not only do so many people assume, now, that they are being misled; but more than that, the media themselves have lost all confidence in their own ability to give us the facts.

Personally I think the hype is a good thing, regardless of whether it's warranted or not, because it's just very hard to tell how quickly it will become relatively non-lethal - since the purpose of a virus is to survive it should generally lose it's [can't think of the word, may edit it in later] - so, in the meantime, it's better for people to be over cautious than to brush it off as over-hyped.

Better to be safe than sorry in this instance.

People will run around like chickens with their heads cut off for a month or two until the hurricanes and wildfires start, and then they'll shift to panicking about that.

Meanwhile, I'm going to enjoy cheap pork at the butchers while I can.

Personally I think the hype is a good thing, regardless of whether it's warranted or not, because it's just very hard to tell how quickly it will become relatively non-lethal - since the purpose of a virus is to survive it should generally lose it's [can't think of the word, may edit it in later] - so, in the meantime, it's better for people to be over cautious than to brush it off as over-hyped.

Better to be safe than sorry in this instance.

Pathogenicity?

Pathogenicity?

Virulence is actually the word I was looking for but yeah, same thing.

Your own immune system might beat this thing. One of the people who had it, beat it without recieving any Tamiflu or other antiviral treatments. He probably had a strong immune system.

This will have slightly less impact on life than SARS. Why? Because we'll come to our senses, remember that SARS was a non-event and continue normal, day-to-day life.

Some will get sick, a few may die, life will go on.

These.

...though I also think that the continued media hype is just a way to help the struggling newspaper industry stay afloat a while longer.

Your own immune system might beat this thing. One of the people who had it, beat it without recieving any Tamiflu or other antiviral treatments. He probably had a strong immune system.

A strong immune system can serve to boost the virulence, I seem to be a booster carrier for common colds, in that I tend to be the first to get them, with very short and mild symptoms and then it blows out for everyone else.

Cross-over species virus are bad because inter-species virus tend to evolve slowly and any change can quickly be recognised by the body, cross over is exploiting something new.

A weak immune system means the host might die too quickly, while a strong immune system helps it evolve to try and beat it.

That's partly why you can never tell, you don't know the host path, and it's why scientists worry so much about the convergence of living in greater proximity (cities, urbanisation), fast transportation (airlines) and mass farming, it means the virulent strain can spread far faster and cause greater damage before settling down.

EDIT: I could probably write that with a bit more clarity, I won't but apologies if disjointed.

My daughter, the public health officer, is having to do some work with this on her base. She doesn't seem too concerned, more annoyed. She says, basically, use common sense. Those masks everyone is buying really aren't effective, so don't bother to buy any. Just don't go into large crowds unless it's necessary. Most of these things aren't passed by breathing contaminated air but by touch - you touch an infected person then touch your face - so wash your hands with antibacterial soap when you've touched someone who has it and before you touch your face. Incidentally, according to her, most of these things are most contagious just before you show symptoms, so just because someone has no symptoms doesn't mean they're not contagious.

Essentially, just use common sense.

EDIT: I got this off the website for my daughter's AFB.

TRICARE releases facts about H1N1 flu outbreak


by TRICARE

4/29/2009 - PHOENIX -- Recently there have been a number of cases of H1N1 flu outbreak reported in the media. The Department of Defense as well as all segments of the U.S. government is working along with our international partners to lessen the impact of H1N1 flu.

What is H1N1 flu?
H1N1 flu is influenza that occurs in pigs. People don't normally get H1N1 flu but human infections can occur. The most recent cases of H1N1 flu appear to have the ability to be passed on from person to person and has resulted in a number of cases in the United States as well as wide spread disease in certain parts of Mexico. It's likely that this H1N1 flu will spread to many if not all parts of the United States.

Symptoms
When people catch H1N1 flu they may have a fever, cough, sore throat, body aches, headache, chills and fatigue just like the regular flu. Some people may also have vomiting and diarrhea. Previously, H1N1 flus have also caused severe illness and death. Like the regular flu people with chronic medical conditions are at risk for more severe illness.

Contracting H1N1 flu
Most people catch H1N1 flu the same way you catch the regular flu. You can catch H1N1 flu by coming in contact with droplets from infected people after they sneeze or cough. This can occur by being in the path of a sneeze or cough or touching something that has those droplets on it and then touching your mouth, nose or eyes.

Treatment
There is a medicine to treat H1N1 flu. Both Tamiflu® and Relenza® are effective against the H1N1 flu. You get these medicines from your doctor. If you have H1N1 flu and need treatment, treatment should start within two days after you begin to feel sick.

Prevention
However, the best treatment is prevention. There are a number of ways you can reduce the risk of catching H1N1 flu for you and your family.
· Avoid people with the flu.
· Wash your hands often with soap and water or an alcohol-based hand cleaner.
· Wash your hands before eating or touching your face, after touching surfaces that someone might have coughed or sneezed on, after going out into the community and after caring for someone who has the flu or touching something someone who is sick may have touched.
· If someone in your household is sick, stay home until that person no longer feels ill.

If you are sick, there a number of things you can do to reduce the chances of giving H1N1 flu to others.
· If you are sick, stay home from work or school.
· Limit your contact with others.
· Cough and sneeze into disposable tissues. Throw these tissues away into a plastic bag. When removing the bag, try not to touch the dirty tissues.
· Those with flu should use separate eating utensils that are washed in hot soapy water after each meal.
· Don't share objects like remote controls or pens.
· Disinfect surfaces that are frequently touched like door knobs, remote controls, light switches and toilet handles. An effective disinfectant can be made using one quarter of a cup of household bleach and one gallon of cold water.
· If someone in your house is sick, also stay at home. Don't go to work or school until they no longer feel sick.

If you think you have H1N1 flu, contact your health care provider. They will be able to determine if you need testing or treatment. If you experience any of the following warning signs, seek emergency medical care right away.

For children:
· Fast breathing or having difficulty to breathe
· Bluish skin color
· Not drinking enough fluids and not urinating as often
· Not waking up or being able to interact with others
· Being so irritable that they do not want to be held
· Flu symptoms that improve but then return with a worse cough and fever
· Fever with a rash

For adults:
· Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
· Pain or pressure in the chest or abdomen
· Sudden dizziness
· Confusion
· Severe or persistent vomiting
· Flu symptoms that improve but then return with a worse cough and fever

For more information check your local installation hot line or go to www.dod.mil/pandemicflu.

When the newspapers aren't selling any extra editions anymore then they will invent a new hype.

It's all economics, you stupid.*

* : people with a small brain, may replace the * with :)

I ran a simulation I have
What is this simulation? Something you made? How does it work?
Just curious, I like simulations.

Is it possible that H1N1 has been around longer that they are saying? There are people with probable cases with no direct connection to Mexico.

Game over, man. Game over, what the fuck are we supposed to now, huh, what are we gonna do?!

Game over, man. Game over, what the fuck are we supposed to now, huh, what are we gonna do?!

Maybe we could build a fire, sing a couple of songs, huh? Why don't we try that?

Game over, man. Game over, what the fuck are we supposed to now, huh, what are we gonna do?!

Put in another quarter and continue the game.

Personally I think the hype is a good thing...

...though I also think that the continued media hype...

When the newspapers aren't selling any extra editions anymore then they will invent a new hype.
Thing is, this time, it doesn't appear to be all hype. Not that we should start panicking, though it doesn't appear that anyone sensible is, but see my previous post (http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showpost.php?p=14756458&postcount=24) for why this viral outbreak is a genuine cause for concern among medical professionals.

An interesting case of the boy who cried wolf.

http://imgur.com/27K39.jpg

Western Europe will be fine, as will most of the US and Canada. Assuming it spreads to Africa, it could do some serious damage.

I know all this is still in the early stages, but still, there are a lot of reports of very mild cases. Plenty of Relenza and Tamiflu available when symptoms become severe. There will be no major problems unless H1N1 mutates. Let this thing take it course and lets get it over with.

I predict half the population will panic and run in a circle clockwise. The other half will panic counter-clockwise. When the dust settles, more people will be trampled than will get swine flu.

This sounds like the most fun option :D :p


But probly the media will sell a few extra papers by keep reporting it coming closer and closer to *insert relevant location here* then after the public wakes up and realises this thing is curable and 120 million people are (most likely) not going to die, they'll have to find something new to scaremonger. (Although from some of the earlier posts that seems to be happening already)

In some respects this has come at the best time for the media, as the "credit crunch" seems to be not doing much (pleeeeeeease dont quote me on that...i will freely admit i am not an economist and the FTSE (or w/e) means very little to me...i have just seen in the papers that the FTSE seems to be improving slowly)

http://imgur.com/27K39.jpg

Yay! :D

... Most of these things aren't passed by breathing contaminated air but by touch - you touch an infected person then touch your face - so wash your hands with antibacterial soap when you've touched someone who has it and before you touch your face. ...


Ok, i have to say... using an AntiBACTERIAL soap is going to be completely useless in preventing infection of a virus.

In fact its more likely to make the general health situation worse by increasing the general level of bacterial immunity to your soap.

Scientists will soon discover that the swine flu is made of people. And the swine flu will look at the people flu and the people flu will look at the swine flu and nobody will be able to tell the difference.

According to the Alex Jones Institute for the Biological Sciences this 'flu is probably harmless and is being used by the Government as a 'beta' test.

Ok, i have to say... using an AntiBACTERIAL soap is going to be completely useless in preventing infection of a virus.

In fact its more likely to make the general health situation worse by increasing the general level of bacterial immunity to your soap.

My bad, I mistranslated something she said (she was speaking science, which is a language with which I'm only somewhat familiar) - just wash your hands with soap and water.

EDIT: I got this off the website for my daughter's AFB.

TRICARE releases facts about H1N1 flu outbreak


by TRICARE

4/29/2009 - Symptoms
When people catch H1N1 flu they may have a fever, cough, sore throat, body aches, headache, chills and fatigue just like the regular flu. Some people may also have vomiting and diarrhea. Previously, H1N1 flus have also caused severe illness and death. Like the regular flu people with chronic medical conditions are at risk for more severe illness.

If you think you have H1N1 flu, contact your health care provider. They will be able to determine if you need testing or treatment. If you experience any of the following warning signs, seek emergency medical care right away.

For children:
· Fast breathing or having difficulty to breathe
· Bluish skin color
· Not drinking enough fluids and not urinating as often
· Not waking up or being able to interact with others
· Being so irritable that they do not want to be held
· Flu symptoms that improve but then return with a worse cough and fever
· Fever with a rash

For adults:
· Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
· Pain or pressure in the chest or abdomen
· Sudden dizziness
· Confusion
· Severe or persistent vomiting
· Flu symptoms that improve but then return with a worse cough and fever

For more information check your local installation hot line or go to www.dod.mil/pandemicflu.


Even if people do get sick, it's not that dangerous.

Most likely Mexico and Mexicans worldwide are going to have a huge population decrease and everybody else will be fine

According to the Alex Jones Institute for the Biological Sciences this 'flu is probably harmless and is being used by the Government as a 'beta' test.

A beta test for what?

Also, who or what is the Alex Jones Institute for the Biological Sciences? Neither Google nor Wiki seem to have heard of it.

Is it possible that H1N1 has been around longer that they are saying? There are people with probable cases with no direct connection to Mexico.

And the fact that there is no evidence for this means that there's a world governmental conspiracy to cover it up? Sources, please.

There are people with probable cases with no direct connection to Mexico.

Possibly because it can spread from person to person?

Nothings gonna happen.

What's going to happen? This:

http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/05/01/swine.flu.schools/index.html

This is a college. At least I'm assuming it's a college. What the hell kind of name for a university is 'Slippery Rock'? Sounds like a porn studio. :p

Here is a simulation (http://www.addictinggames.com/pandemic2.html) I found!:)

Pandemic II would have been funny to use as my "simulation", except you cannot choose the starting country.

That Sea Otters will evolve the intelligence to defeat them, and we'll have to decide which is the best name for Atheism...

And the fact that there is no evidence for this means that there's a world governmental conspiracy to cover it up? Sources, please.

I am not suggesting a cover up. I am asking if is even slightly possilble that it did not start from that kid in Mexico and have they made a mistake as to the origin. A lot of people are saying they had the same symptoms (the mild symptoms) 2 weeks or so before all this started.

Right now, I dont think we have many worries. Keep washing your hands, taking vitamins (the RIGHT amount ... ask your doctor) and DAMM sure keep doing it this fall during flu season. (a time of more serious concern)