NationStates Jolt Archive

leave a mark (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={61748931-FC53-4C66-8708-2F000F1906ED})


The deficit is well on its way to the $1.75 trillion -- or 12.3% of gross domestic product -- that the White House has estimated for the full fiscal year, which ends in September.

Now I know some of you think that money just comes from a magic candy shitting unicorn. But that's not how it works. This actually has to be funded from real dollars (QE has been a total failure).

So, my question is, where do you all think the money is going to come from? I mean, it can be raised, but not at interest rates you'd all like. I estimate that there is prolly 12 months at most before you see mortgage rates go to the upper end of single figures.

And of course, once that happens, the dollar will become ubar currency, just because.

Welcome to the new world.

wait shouldn't the US of already collapsed by your predictions from like 2 months ago?

also iirc the UK is currently on like 50% of its gdp as is France and the rest of the civilized world (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deficit#National_budget_deficits_.282004.29)

wait shouldn't the US of already collapsed by your predictions from like 2 months ago?


No. I'm not predicting collapse. Too many army men for that.

leave a mark (http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={61748931-FC53-4C66-8708-2F000F1906ED})



Now I know some of you think that money just comes from a magic candy shitting unicorn. But that's not how it works. This actually has to be funded from real dollars (QE has been a total failure).

So, my question is, where do you all think the money is going to come from? I mean, it can be raised, but not at interest rates you'd all like. I estimate that there is prolly 12 months at most before you see mortgage rates go to the upper end of single figures.

And of course, once that happens, the dollar will become ubar currency, just because.

Welcome to the new world.

Since, at current, the U.S. currency is backed by nothing except the government's word it actually has value, it pretty much does come from magic candy-shitting unicorns. The entire U.S. currency system is a fantasy where people trade real goods of real value for an empty promise of worth.

also iirc the UK is currently on like 50% of its gdp as is France and the rest of the civilized world (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deficit#National_budget_deficits_.282004.29)
No, size of government budget =/= deficit. France and the like are bitching about having to meet the 3% target imposed by the EU.

12.3% is a whole different league.

Since, at current, the U.S. currency is backed by nothing except the government's word it actually has value, it pretty much does come from magic candy-shitting unicorns. The entire U.S. currency system is a fantasy where people trade real goods of real value for an empty promise of worth.

The US government doesn't back the currency. You should rethink that one.

12.3% is a whole different league.

You get it tho'. Amirite?

Given the above, it doesn't look like housing will 'bottom' in 2009, or 10, or 11 in fact.

The US government doesn't back the currency. You should rethink that one.

What part of that contradicts "the U.S. currency is backed by nothing except the government's word it actually has value?"

What part of that contradicts "the U.S. currency is backed by nothing except the government's word it actually has value?"

Technically, I spose it is backed by US government bonds, kind of. But in fact it isn't backed by anything. It just is.

In fact, at the moment, it is backed by a variety of things, some of which have nothing to do with the government.

It is, however, the currency that is used to settle the vast majority of transactions.

Trade accordingly.

Technically, I spose it is backed by US government bonds, kind of. But in fact it isn't backed by anything. It just is.

Which still does not contradict anything I said.

In fact, at the moment, it is backed by a variety of things, some of which have nothing to do with the government.

It is, however, the currency that is used to settle the vast majority of transactions.

Trade accordingly.

And this entire section isn't in dispute.

'Jim, we're going to need a bigger war'.

Which still does not contradict anything I said.


Does, kind of tho'. You are saying it is backed by the explicit word of the US gov. or someshit.

And I am saying that it is not. The US gov could go out of business tomorrow, and the currency could switch over to being backed by the Fed gold reserves, or whatever else non-defaulted on the balance sheet. For example.

The currency is, in effect, independent of the Gov. Though I wouldn't like to speculate on it's value in the aftermath of a US gov collapse.

SNIP

everything has human value attached to it though so what your suggesting is some kind of energy credit system...maybe

snip

I'm expected to read the sources I quote now :o:p

but yeah its a big deal but also not because its not like the rest of the world is one day going to say "pay up"

...basically its not the biggest problem facing America at the moment

'Jim, we're going to need a bigger war'.

lets pick a fight with Uzbekistan seeing as how they have all their troops busy in Afghanistan at the moment

You get it tho'. Amirite?
Time to look at cheap rate swaps, maybe?

Given the above, it doesn't look like housing will 'bottom' in 2009, or 10, or 11 in fact.
Well, I didn't believe that anyways. But hey, Americans are optimists (http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/CORRECTED---UPDATE-2-Obama-sees-glimmers-of-hope-i-QYQKQ?OpenDocument). It amazes me every time I speak to one of them and they proclaim I shouldn't say such pessimistic things, because "it's just a confidence thing".

EDIT: Lol. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a276IqV3sdnc&refer=home) I suppose someone's calling the top of the market then, and looking good PR-wise doing it.

Does, kind of tho'. You are saying it is backed by the explicit word of the US gov. or someshit.

And I am saying that it is not. The US gov could go out of business tomorrow, and the currency could switch over to being backed by the Fed gold reserves, or whatever else non-defaulted on the balance sheet. For example.

The currency is, in effect, independent of the Gov. Though I wouldn't like to speculate on it's value in the aftermath of a US gov collapse.

Actually, the currency itself is entirely government-dependent. The reason why it appears to be such a powerful currency is the power of the nation itself. It wasn't that long ago, by the timescale of nations, that the U.S. dollar wasn't accepted by anyone because its value was a joke (which, incidentally, was the first time it wasn't backed by anything).

The currency itself is printed by the Federal Reserve and under the jurisdiction of the United States Treasury. The statement on it, "This note is legal tender for all debts, public and domestic," is a guarantee from the Treasury, in it acting as an extension of Congress (which, if you read the Constitution, has the authority for coining the currency and regulating its value, thus making any currency originating from the Federal government backed by the government itself under the Constitution), that the currency has value. The fact it is a fiat currency means that the only backing of its value is the very guarantee that it has value; in all actually, the currency is completely worthless.

TL;DR version: The Constitution contradicts your statement that the currency is independent of the government, and thus you're wrong. Section 8 of Article 1 of it, to be exact.

TL;DR version: The Constitution contradicts your statement that the currency is independent of the government, and thus you're wrong. Section 8 of Article 1 of it, to be exact.

In the words of Benjamin Bernanke "No."

But start a lawsuit by all means. Go ahead. I will enjoy watching your progress.

EDIT: Lol. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a276IqV3sdnc&refer=home) I suppose someone's calling the top of the market then, and looking good PR-wise doing it.

Yah. And they just had their London office declare "the worst is over", "time to move out of defensive stocks" linky (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ayyLMHiYXZFk)

It is a constant source of marvelment to me that anyone does business with them, specially after the whole oil thing came out.

I guess barnum was right.

It is a constant source of marvelment to me that anyone does business with them, specially after the whole oil thing came out.
Caveat Emptor, I say.

Time to look at cheap rate swaps, maybe?


And I stay away from swaps and just play this through futures. Whole mess of trouble there IMO.

IR swaps were last years play.

In the words of Benjamin Bernanke "No."

But start a lawsuit by all means. Go ahead. I will enjoy watching your progress.

I've got proof:

http://www.ustreas.gov/education/history/brochure/index.shtml

Now, a quote from the actual Constitution on the issue:

The Congress shall have power
To lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises, to pay the debts and provide for the common defence and general welfare of the United States; but all duties, imposts and excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;
To borrow money on the credit of the United States;
To regulate commerce with foreign nations, and among the several states, and with the Indian tribes;
To establish a uniform rule of naturalization, and uniform laws on the subject of bankruptcies throughout the United States;
To coin money, regulate the value thereof, and of foreign coin, and fix the standard of weights and measures;
To provide for the punishment of counterfeiting the securities and current coin of the United States;
To establish post offices and post roads;
To promote the progress of science and useful arts, by securing for limited times to authors and inventors the exclusive right to their respective writings and discoveries;
To constitute tribunals inferior to the Supreme Court;
To define and punish piracies and felonies committed on the high seas, and offenses against the law of nations;
To declare war, grant letters of marque and reprisal, and make rules concerning captures on land and water;
To raise and support armies, but no appropriation of money to that use shall be for a longer term than two years;
To provide and maintain a navy;
To make rules for the government and regulation of the land and naval forces;
To provide for calling forth the militia to execute the laws of the union, suppress insurrections and repel invasions;
To provide for organizing, arming, and disciplining, the militia, and for governing such part of them as may be employed in the service of the United States, reserving to the states respectively, the appointment of the officers, and the authority of training the militia according to the discipline prescribed by Congress;
To exercise exclusive legislation in all cases whatsoever, over such District (not exceeding ten miles square) as may, by cession of particular states, and the acceptance of Congress, become the seat of the government of the United States, and to exercise like authority over all places purchased by the consent of the legislature of the state in which the same shall be, for the erection of forts, magazines, arsenals, dockyards, and other needful buildings;—And
To make all laws which shall be necessary and proper for carrying into execution the foregoing powers, and all other powers vested by this Constitution in the government of the United States, or in any department or officer thereof.

Now, note the U.S. Treasury was established by the U.S. Congress specifically for the purpose of printing the money. And keep in mind my source for that information is the website of the U.S. Treasury itself.

Nice try, though. The facts are against you on this one.

And the TL;DR item was a suggestion from someone else. Not doing that again.

Caveat Emptor, I say.

Oh I don't disagree. I am just surprised at the lack of caveat, and the amount of emptor.

You get what you deserve if you are playing at that level.

Nice try, though. The facts are against you on this one.


Very nice. And I suppose that congress is regulating the value thereof of the currency. Oh wait, it isn't.

As I said, I await your lawsuit about this. I will follow its progress with great interest. In the interim, however, I would posit, just because it is written down in the constitution, doesn't mean it happens.

Very nice. And I suppose that congress is regulating the value thereof of the currency. Oh wait, it isn't.

As I said, I await your lawsuit about this. I will follow its progress with great interest. In the interim, however, I would posit, just because it is written down in the constitution, doesn't mean it happens.

http://www.treas.gov/education/fact-sheets/history/act-congress.shtml

That covers it pretty nicely. The Legalese isn't as bad as modern documents, so it's not as difficult to translate into plain English. But, basically, that spells out what the Secretary of the Treasury and his underlings do. Along with it, it also requires that the Secretary report to Congress, as well as obey all of their directives related to the currency. He also gets to sell government-owned land. Pretty much, the people at the top in this case are the people in Congress. If they don't like how the currency is acting, they can change it.

I think at this point optimistic economic reports are like anti-suicide weather forecasts.

When I lived in Vermont, February/March/April was a hard time because the winter would not let go and the weather would be unseasonably shitty, dark, gray, wet, and cold for LOOOOOONG periods of time, after 3-4 previous months of snot-freezing cold and shoulder-deep snow. And during that "transitional season", the local weather forecasters would start promising sunshine and rising temperatures for "tomorrow" or "the weekend" every single day, even though anyone could look out the window and tell the weather was not going to break for a good while. I developed the theory that they would make those fake but optimistic and reassuring forecasts to try to offset Seasonal Affective Disorder and help buck up people who might be reaching the end of their coping abilities.

Psychology. "The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow" -- that song from the musical "Annie", the one about the impoverished orphan during the Great Depression. It's just trying to keep people from giving up.

Maybe somewhere in their own dark inner corners, the predicters are also desperately hoping that they are right and that the economy really is controlled by the psychology of public perception.

What part of that contradicts "the U.S. currency is backed by nothing except the government's word it actually has value?"

Actually the only thing that keeps it being used is that it's the "Petrodollar"

So to be more correct the Dollar is backed by oil.

You forget sir, the new plan is for us to hypothetically join the EU, thereby sweeping this debt into their coffers, and using their currency right when ours becomes worthless, ;)

...Its the perfect plan, lol...

You forget sir, the new plan is for us to hypothetically join the EU, thereby sweeping this debt into their coffers, and using their currency right when ours becomes worthless, ;)

...Its the perfect plan, lol...

Except that the EU is planning to join the US...or did we forget to tell you that?

Except that the EU is planning to join the US...or did we forget to tell you that?

WHAT!? :eek: AH, my beautiful plan!...


I guess we could both just agree that our debt is no longer relevant, and to hell with any who disagrees, lol...

There are 55 million people in the US republican party. Slap a $31818.18 "You support Bush's party" tax on them and it'll come out to $1.75 trillion in new taxes. :p The sad part is that some people will take this seriously.

There are 55 million people in the US republican party. Slap a $31818.18 "You support Bush's party" tax on them and it'll come out to $1.75 trillion in new taxes. :p The sad part is that some people will take this seriously.

So that's what Obama meant by Bi partisan support?

Nah, that's the Dalai Lama means by karmic revenge! :D

Since, at current, the U.S. currency is backed by nothing except the government's word it actually has value, it pretty much does come from magic candy-shitting unicorns. The entire U.S. currency system is a fantasy where people trade real goods of real value for an empty promise of worth.

May I sig that?

Actually the only thing that keeps it being used is that it's the "Petrodollar"

So to be more correct the Dollar is backed by oil.

Touche. I'll take the loss on this one ;)

May I sig that?

Yeo :D

There are 55 million people in the US republican party. Slap a $31818.18 "You support Bush's party" tax on them and it'll come out to $1.75 trillion in new taxes. :p The sad part is that some people will take this seriously.
Better would be mandatory deportation of everyone who keeps trying to sue the government over the "illegal alien" stuff. As part of the deporation the person is only allowed 100$ and three pairs of clothes. All other assets become property of the government.

And they are only allowed to go to a country that most fits their views.

Meaning for Social Conservatives their destination is Saudi Arabia, Patriot Act lovers will go to North Korea, Religious nuts who think the "End of the world" and the "Anti-Christ" is just around the corner will be thrown in West Bank, and the "Market fixes everything" group will go to Somalia.

(

WHAT!? :eek: AH, my beautiful plan!...


I guess we could both just agree that our debt is no longer relevant, and to hell with any who disagrees, lol...

sending China to hell will be kinda tough.