NationStates Jolt Archive

An earthquake has hit central Italy tonight, around h03.30 local time. The magnitude was about 6.3 Richter. The region most severly affected has been Abruzzo, though the seismic waves were strong enough to make people near Rome abandon their houses in a hurry.
Many buildings in the regional capital L'Aquila have collapsed, ranging from historical medieval buildings to modern steel-and-concrete structures. There are reports of already 30 dead bodies extracted from the rubble, but many people are still trapped.

Apart from the loss of lives and of historical heritage, there is an interesting thing that maybe needs a bit of debate.
The Abruzzo region was experiencing, since a couple of months, a long "seismic swarm", that is many small shocks (about 3 Richter). The official speakers for the INGV (National Institute for Geophysics and Vulcanology) stated that this was good, because -they said- this meant that the elastic energy of the fault lines was dissipating in many small quakes instead of in a single catastrophical event.
On the other hand, a geophysicist working in the same Abruzzo region, at the Gran Sasso labs (CNR, National Council of Research, Italy's top scientifical organisation), was conducting some studies about the link between the increase of radon (a radioactive, heavy noble gas) venting from the soil and the probability of severe quakes. He claimed some week ago that, by his own model and measurements, he evaluated an high probability of the "seismic swarm" actually preparing a major quake in central Italy. (I'll post a link in English as soon as I find one).

So, what do you think? Can major quakes be foreseen with some degree of accuracy (that is, within weeks instead of years)?


edit: last minute news: in Rome, the remnants of Caracalla's Thermae (between the Circus Maximus and the Colosseum) have been damaged by the quake.

That is horrendous any aid we can give from across the ocean will be sent.

That is horrendous any aid we can give from across the ocean will be sent.

Thanks, buddy.
According to the Ministry of Interior, the Protezione Civile is managing the emergency decently for now (and I think even the Berlusconi cabinet wouldn't dare to joke about that).
The problem will be mostly with evacuating whole cities, until even the still-standing structures have been double-checked for hidden damage. This will take months if we're lucky.


Death toll now 90, and rising. Some villages in the higher area have been completely razed. "Like a wartime bombing", some elderly people said.

Incoming news: Berlusconi just gave a speech inviting people from L'Aquila province to leave their homes even if they don't appear to have been damaged, and to relocate to other areas of the country, possibily asking for hospitality from relatives, so to place less of a burden on the Protezione Civile.

Incoming: an encampment has been placed by the Protezione Civile. It's able to host 15000 to 20000 people, but the homeless will be much more still. Possibily hotels will be asked to host the refugees.

This is bad, I just saw how high the death toll has gone.

Sounds like corruption still lives in Italy...

...or the people are otherwise still content enough living in 2nd class buildings.

Mayhaps both and loose construction legislation is accepted?



One might even say they got lucky: "Only" hundred or so dead when thousands were left homeless.

Our prayers are with you. I wish all a speedy recovery. I hope they have a link at the Red Cross for support.

Sounds like corruption still lives in Italy...
Sure it does. A lot. "Alte Liebe rösten nicht" the Germans would say.


...or the people are otherwise still content enough living in 2nd class buildings.

Not quite. Generally the greater expenses we Italians are willing to make are for home. We even regard "the brick" as the best and safest form of investing our savings.


Mayhaps both and loose construction legislation is accepted?

Actually the construction legislation is quite strict, but, in a very typical Italian fashion, it's rarely completely enforced. :(
The laws are expecially strict in highly seismic areas - and this means about 50% of the national territory.

Just some months ago the mayor of a city in the Marche has been sentenced guilty of not enforcing the anti-seismic standards in the local school, which collapsed in a quake some years ago killing many schoolkids.

One might even say they got lucky: "Only" hundred or so dead when thousands were left homeless.
I'd say it's a kind of "luck" many people would like not to have...

They need to move on the official website for donations. I still can't find it. If you live in Italy ask the Red Cross to put up a link. An English web page would greatly increase donations as well.

Actually the construction legislation is quite strict, but, in a very typical Italian fashion, it's rarely completely enforced. :(
The laws are expecially strict in highly seismic areas - and this means about 50% of the national territory.

So that (see the bit below) is due to corruption and bribery rather than government being ineffectual in legislation? Or did I miss something?

A news source: (http://www.ansa.it/site/notizie/awnplus/english/news/2009-04-06_106338815.html)
''The damage in the Abruzzo region involved buildings which were not built to withstand a quake that was not even particularly strong,'' observed Enzo Boschi, the chairman of Italy's National Institute for Geophysics and Vulcanology (INGV)

''It is always distressing to note that we do not have the mentality to build adequate structures in areas at risk of seismic activity. In other words, we don't construct buildings to withstand quakes nor to we revamp old buildings to make them safe from collapse,'' Boschi said.

''We have detailed maps which indicate the areas which are most at risk of earthquakes and we have also indicated what actions are needed to make buildings safe. But little or nothing has been done,'' he added.

Looking back at Monday's early morning's quake, Boschi said ''it was a common tremor for the Apennine mountain chain, one which occurs when underground shelves shift by ten centimeters or so''.

I'd say it's a kind of "luck" many people would like not to have...
Aye, that's true.

The fact is that a minor quake in a Western Country shouldn't be able to destroy thousands of homes or end 100s of lives. :(

I do wonder what the repercussions will be....if any.

They need to move on the official website for donations. I still can't find it. If you live in Italy ask the Red Cross to put up a link. An English web page would greatly increase donations as well.

Right now the government maintains that the Protezione Civile isn't needing donations. I'll keep an eye on the website of the Protezione Civile and keep you all informed - for the moment distrust unofficial donations sites.

As for the Red Cross, the Italian section of the Red Cross works within the frame of the Protezione Civile. Sadly we have lots of experience with dealing with the after-earthquake scenarios... still it hasn't taught us to build better.

So that (see the bit below) is due to corruption and bribery rather than government being ineffectual in legislation? Or did I miss something?
The parliament makes good laws, usually: the various cabinets (be they right, left, centre) and the local administrations, though, are deeply plagued by bribery, so laws aren't enforced.

''The damage in the Abruzzo region involved buildings which were not built to withstand a quake that was not even particularly strong,'' observed Enzo Boschi, the chairman of Italy's National Institute for Geophysics and Vulcanology (INGV)
...
Looking back at Monday's early morning's quake, Boschi said ''it was a common tremor for the Apennine mountain chain, one which occurs when underground shelves shift by ten centimeters or so''.
Boschi is right to point out the sub-standard buildings, but the quake's magnitude is not very common: about a one-in-eight-years, more or less. 6.3 is quite strong.
Also, one should keep in mind that, expecially in central Italy, many buildings are centuries old.

I do wonder what the repercussions will be....if any.
Looking to former experience, I can guess that:
A lot of money will be placed to rebuild and revamp.
Then a lot of national agencies and local administrations will have a say, or, to be more accurate, a share of the pie.
Then builders will bribe officers to have the rebuilding works assigned to themselves, even if they don't respect the legislation.
Many people will live in tents and provisory shelters for months or even years.
Till a new quakes strikes. :(


incoming: the hamlet of Onna, a borough of Paganica, the place nearest to the epicentre, has been totally razed. Almost no building is standing, all of them have received heavy structural damage. Very few people are being found still alive, and there are still shocks in the range of 3.5 Richter. Tonight's main shock has been reported to have lasted about 5 minutes.

The parliament makes good laws, usually: the various cabinets (be they right, left, centre) and the local administrations, though, are deeply plagued by bribery, so laws aren't enforced.
Looking to former experience, I can guess that:
A lot of money will be placed to rebuild and revamp.
Then a lot of national agencies and local administrations will have a say, or, to be more accurate, a share of the pie.
Then builders will bribe officers to have the rebuilding works assigned to themselves, even if they don't respect the legislation.
Many people will live in tents and provisory shelters for months or even years.
Till a new quakes strikes. :(

incoming: the hamlet of Onna, a borough of Paganica, the place nearest to the epicentre, has been totally razed. Almost no building is standing, all of them have received heavy structural damage. Very few people are being found still alive, and there are still shocks in the range of 3.5 Richter. Tonight's main shock has been reported to have lasted about 5 minutes.
Stand up an' protest!

Shit...You should be angry as hell, heck, I'm angry at the officials for being so lax about building security. :upyours:

Boschi is right to point out the sub-standard buildings, but the quake's magnitude is not very common: about a one-in-eight-years, more or less. 6.3 is quite strong.
Well, various sources have put the quake at 5.8 to 6.3...which while being a big quake shouldn't lead into complete destruction.

Consider, for example, this (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7522338.stm): A 6.8 richter quake - many times more powerful than even a 6.3 one - in Japan, around a 100 injured, thousands left without power.

Also, one should keep in mind that, expecially in central Italy, many buildings are centuries old.
They can be strengthened or even replaced (assuming they're not historically valuable): People's safety should be the first priority.

Stand up an' protest!
Shit...You should be angry as hell, heck, I'm angry at the officials for being so lax about building security. :upyours:

We do, we are... and still mr.Bribusconi gets elected. :mad:

Ahi serva Italia, di dolore ostello!
Nave sanza nocchiero in gran tempesta;
Non donna di province ma bordello!

Dante Alighieri - Inferno

(Alas slave Italy, house of suffering! Pilotless ship in a raging storm; lady not of provinces, lady of brothel!)


Well, various sources have put the quake at 5.8 to 6.3...which while being a big quake shouldn't lead into complete destruction.


Yep.
You know the difference between Richter and Mercalli?
Richter 6 is Mercalli I in Japan, Mercalli VI in Italy and Mercalli XII in Iran.


incoming: just to make things worse, now there's a storm going on. Rain, hail, wind, and temperatures dropping. Wtf!

Right now the government maintains that the Protezione Civile isn't needing donations. I'll keep an eye on the website of the Protezione Civile and keep you all informed - for the moment distrust unofficial donations sites.

As for the Red Cross, the Italian section of the Red Cross works within the frame of the Protezione Civile. Sadly we have lots of experience with dealing with the after-earthquake scenarios... still it hasn't taught us to build better.

Thanks for info I am always nervous with the unofficial sites. Protezione Civile should always take donations, geez. When did need come into it? Just kidding. Makes us feel better internationally. Sigh, I am hopeless.

Thanks for info I am always nervous with the unofficial sites. Protezione Civile should always take donations, geez. When did need come into it? Just kidding. Makes us feel better internationally. Sigh, I am hopeless.

Nevermind. Maybe in the next days Italy will call for some help with the refugees.

Saw the news just before leaving for work today.

Hoped you wewre OK.

Why is Guido Bertolaso so adamantly claiming that it is impossible to predict when earthquakes are going to hit? Why does he think he's better qualified at this than the physicists like Giampaolo Giuliani?

Why is Guido Bertolaso so adamantly claiming that it is impossible to predict when earthquakes are going to hit? Why does he think he's better qualified at this than the physicists like Giampaolo Giuliani?
Probably desperately trying to cover his ass and hoping that noone will call his bluff.

Yep.
You know the difference between Richter and Mercalli?
Richter 6 is Mercalli I in Japan, Mercalli VI in Italy and Mercalli XII in Iran.
Isn't that the scale reflecting the impact an earthquake has, bit like the beaufort scale?

I like the way you use it as a Civil Engineering Index. :tongue:

incoming: just to make things worse, now there's a storm going on. Rain, hail, wind, and temperatures dropping. Wtf!
When it rains, it pours. :(

What I don't quite get is why Italy has refused the offer for help from Switzerland, do you know anything about that Risottia?

Sounds like corruption still lives in Italy...

...or the people are otherwise still content enough living in 2nd class buildings.

Mayhaps both and loose construction legislation is accepted?



One might even say they got lucky: "Only" hundred or so dead when thousands were left homeless.

100 or so dead and few thousand homeless. Seems to be pretty good buildings, look at China 2008 for what happens when you have crappy buildings and an earthquake hits.

100 or so dead and few thousand homeless. Seems to be pretty good buildings, look at China 2008 for what happens when you have crappy buildings and an earthquake hits.

China quake released around 250-2000 times more energy (1.6 to 2.2 richters, 5.8-6.3 vs 7.9-8.0), the commonly cited numbers (6.3 vs 8.0) give a 355 fold energy increase.

Besides, a more apt comparison would be to Japanese quakes of similar magnitude: Rural China is still a 3rd world country, while Italy & Japan are 1st world countries.


btw. The damage toll for Italy quake is (according to BBC (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7985958.stm)) at least 150 dead and 30-40,000 homeless.

China quake released around 250-2000 times more energy (1.6 to 2.2 richters, 5.8-6.3 vs 7.9-8.0), the commonly cited numbers (6.3 vs 8.0) give a 355 fold energy increase.

Besides, a more apt comparison would be to Japanese quakes of similar magnitude: Rural China is still a 3rd world country, while Italy & Japan are 1st world countries.


btw. The damage toll for Italy quake is (according to BBC (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7985958.stm)) at least 150 dead and 30-40,000 homeless.

Yes but all the official buildings in that area of China were supposed to be built using Iceland Earthquake proof buildings. Which are arguably(the Icelanders) the most earth quack resistant in the world. What happened with China was to skim money off the top officials skimmed on the steel Rebar and pocketed the money. I think a few people were executed over the matter.

What I don't quite get is why Italy has refused the offer for help from Switzerland, do you know anything about that Risottia?
Geiler Name. :p

About Italy, this is awful and very unfortunate and last I heard the death tolls are reaching 100???

Ris-sama, le mie preghiere sono con tutta l'Italia in questo momento così difficile.:(

Geiler Name. :p

About Italy, this is awful and very unfortunate and last I heard the death tolls are reaching 100???

The NY Times says 91 deaths, tens of thousands homeless. Don't know when those figures are from, though (it's 13:30 US Mountain Time as I write this).

We are getting better at predicting these things, but I can understand scientists being reluctant to make public prouncements. If they're wrong, people get all bent out of shape. As for politicians refusing aid, well, who understands why politicians do the things they do?

What I don't quite get is why Italy has refused the offer for help from Switzerland, do you know anything about that Risottia?

Prestige I fear.

Berlusca, just 60 minutes after declining the offers from Switzerland, Austria and Germany, went in television and said that Italy could use another 1200 firemen to rotate the crews.

Wtf, bloody psychodwarf.

last update:
150 dead people, about 2000 injured, 60000 homeless. figures from State TV RAI 1, from medical sources.
many people still missing. also L'Aquila is an university city, so problems with students who aren't registered as residents.
many historical buildings heavily damaged or destroyed.

Btw, I would like to thank you all for the sympathy.

I'm so sorry, Risottia. My prayers are with your countrymen.

Btw, I would like to thank you all for the sympathy.

No problem, amico. :)

Donations:
The news corp Repubblica-L'Espresso (one of the major news corps not controlled by Berlusconi) has readied a couple of bank accounts meant to collect donations for the families hit by the quake.

at Banca Carispaq
IBAN: IT 53 Z 06040 15400 000 000 155 762

at Banca Caripe
IBAN: IT 19 B 06245 15410 000 000 000 468

More info (in Italian, likely) should be available at www.ilcentro.gelocal.it , but I cannot reach that site right now.

Also Regione Abruzzo has opened a bank account for donations:

at Bancoposta (www.poste.it)
account number: (CCP, conto corrente postale) 10400000
IBAN: IT 03 U 07601 03200 000 010 400 000

179 dead now: http://uk.news.yahoo.com/4/20090407/twl-italy-quake-death-toll-rises-to179-41f21e0.html

update

from Berlusconi's speech to the press:
"We are a proud nation, we can manage the situation by ourselves: that's why we declined the offers of civilian emergency aid from other countries."

(I call jerk)

Anyway: 207 dead people, around 15 still missing.

update

from Berlusconi's speech to the press:
"We are a proud nation, we can manage the situation by ourselves: that's why we declined the offers of civilian emergency aid from other countries."

Whoa, Italy has the manpower to search through a cityful of rubble in 24 hours and can offer shelter and provisions to 50,000 homeless just like that?

Wouldn't have believed it earlier myself...Berlusconi must be a superman or somethin' :rolleyes:

update

from Berlusconi's speech to the press:
"We are a proud nation, we can manage the situation by ourselves: that's why we declined the offers of civilian emergency aid from other countries."

(I call jerk)

Anyway: 207 dead people, around 15 still missing.

Only 15 people still missing. Sounds like you got it under control.
The Mafia didnt have to come start handing out relief aid.

Only 15 people still missing. Sounds like you got it under control.
The Mafia didnt have to come start handing out relief aid.

Greedy, that was distasteful of you.

Greedy, that was distasteful of you.

I was just about to say that.

Greedy, that was distasteful of you.

They did in Japan. Which was what I was thinking of when i mentioned that part.

Only 15 people still missing. Sounds like you got it under control.
The Mafia didnt have to come start handing out relief aid.

Not a lot of mafia in Abruzzo. They're too poor to be interesting.

We just uploaded this article about the L'Aquila quake
http://www.ugis.it/a070409-aquila.html

In italian only, sorry. Though the maps (source: INGV) are very interesting.

pic 1: the "seismic swarm" between February 1st and March 31st.
pic 2: classification of the area according to probability of strong earthquakes (the redder the more probable)
pic 3: peak acceleration of the ground during earthquakes in the L'Aquila area (violet = greatest acceleration)
pic 4: from the catalogue of quakes in Italy (historical data until 1980, the yellow squares represent epicentre of quakes with effects above Mercalli VI, the larger the square the more powerful the quake)
pic 5: from the catalogue of seisms in Italy (data from 1981 to 2002) and from the bullettin of instrumentally-measurable quakes (data from 2003 to 2007).

(I call jerk)

Todays quote: "They should think of it as being on a camping weekend"

Oh, and Berlusconi will come over from the comfortable Rome daily to check up on them. Cause he is nice like that.

Todays quote: "They should think of it as being on a camping weekend"



Seeing as hes not stupid, we'll have to stick to terms like arrogant, sneering, insensitive, ignorant....

Mind you, it does keep Sarko from being the most annoying prick in Western Europe

Todays quote: "They should think of it as being on a camping weekend"

Oh, and Berlusconi will come over from the comfortable Rome daily to check up on them. Cause he is nice like that.
Im just relieved that he wisely forbid those nosy and annoying swiss rescue teams to make the long and arduous trip into Italy and spoil the nice little get-together that got going on in Aquila. Heaven forbid, I heard that they even planned to bring their dogs with them! Really, how rude is that?

Seeing as hes not stupid, we'll have to stick to terms like arrogant, sneering, insensitive, ignorant....

Mind you, it does keep Sarko from being the most annoying prick in Western Europe
True, and whenever I despair at the politics in my country I can just think how it would be if I lived a little bit further south and suddenly everything doesn't seem so bad anymore. In addition, we get all the Italian cuisine and shit that we want! Truly, Berlusconi is a champion for bad politicians everywhere.

I saw on the BBC just a while ago that it is around 260 death toll


THAT EARTHQUAKE HAPPENED PRACTICALLY WHERE I WAS BORN!!!

Truly, Berlusconi is a champion for bad politicians everywhere.

Yeah, at least Sarko's got a real Italian hottie as wife, not that old dyed-blonde hobbit Berlusconi has.



THAT EARTHQUAKE HAPPENED PRACTICALLY WHERE I WAS BORN!!!
Sei abruzzese? Davvero?
Spero che tu non abbia parenti coinvolti.

Sei abruzzese? Davvero?
Spero che tu non abbia parenti coinvolti.

I was born in Avezzano but I am not sure if that was effected as it was not mentioned in the news, but the rest of my family live north so they were not involved, so that is ok (not that I am saying that the earthquake was ok, don't get me wrong)

(sorry for replies in English, Having not used the language in so long [8 years] I understand it better than I speak it and my spelling is horrific in both languages In any case xD

And spellcheck only works for English)

Actually, I need to be fair to Berlusconi.

He actually pointed out that things are not as gloom as people make it seem: the victims after all do have blankets, medical care and are provided with hot meals. So they should think of it as a camping weekend.

Of course, sarcastic people could now point out that camping because your house was destroyed, friends and family died or are in hospital, and having no heater while it is almost freezing is not something most people would enjoy.
Then again, some people are indeed worse off.