NationStates Jolt Archive

Its already 2nd in PPP. But wow, this is so fast:


China may top Japan as world's second-largest economy

China is likely to overtake Japan to become the world's second largest economy, either this year or by 2010, a research paper issued recently by the China Policy Institute of the University of Nottingham (UK) has revealed.

Yao Shujie, an author of the research paper, had said two years ago that China would become the No 2 in the world's economic pecking order in 2018.

"Right now, we don't have figures for Japan's GDP in 2008, but I think China may have already overtaken Japan last year," Yao told China Daily in a telephonic interview yesterday.

Based on the World Bank and IMF's figures on China and Japan's 2007 GDP and output growth rate of 2008, Yao estimated China and Japan's GDP would reach $4.42 and 4.68 trillion in 2008, respectively.

Yao's research has revealed that the US, Japan, Germany and the UK are not likely to recover to their 2007 output levels until 2011 or 2012, but China is expected to expand at 7 to 8 percent this year.

Contrary to many economists' belief that China will grow at a subdued rate, Premier Wen Jiabao said in his work report last Thursday that the country would be able to achieve a growth target of about 8 percent this year if proper policies and measures are put in place.
......

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-03/10/content_7559222.htm

China was expected to reach $4 trillion by 2020 only 4 years ago but they passed it already:


President: China targets US$4 trillion GDP by 2020
(chinadaily.com.cn/Xinhua)
Updated: 2005-05-16 20:55

Chinese President Hu Jintao said that Asia's fastst growing country is planning to quadruple its GDP to US$4 trillion by 2020, with the per capita GDP reaching US$3,000.

Hu promised to continue pursuing the scientific approach in achieving economic and social progress of China, and always "put the people first" while striking economic attainments.

http://www.chinadaily.net/english/doc/2005-05/16/content_442681.htm

So fast. And an interesting blog here which thinks China will pass US by 2018
http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/10/credit-crisis-updated-projection-of.html

Funfact! China's economy is directly tied to the US economy. With the recent recession, and actually for the past year, China has been in a major economic upheaval. There is some talk that the economic growth they've been having may actually start to regress some. I'm not sure that is totally true, but its worth throwing out there for alternate point of view...ready...set...DEBATE!

China's in for a royal disaster when their population crash comes.

With the financial crisis ongoing, this is all up to wild mass-guessing. China's economy might suffer due to the lack of export requests, but so will Germany's and Japan's, which are export-based too.

Quantitatively, sure. However, I'm intensely skeptical about comparing China to Japan, Germany or other nations on a qualitative basis; their economic growth is far more intensive and more likely to produce sustainable, long term benefits than China, whose economy consists first and foremost of low-value, low-tech manufacturing and services that aren't really that useful for promoting any kind of long-term prosperity.

too bad its less than half of the EU *is far too busy ruling the world to worry about the third world*

Quantitatively, sure. However, I'm intensely skeptical about comparing China to Japan, Germany or other nations on a qualitative basis; their economic growth is far more intensive and more likely to produce sustainable, long term benefits than China, whose economy consists first and foremost of low-value, low-tech manufacturing and services that aren't really that useful for promoting any kind of long-term prosperity.

don't forget of course that this is the same nation that manages to mysteriously grows miles of territory when it comes to measuring against the US

EU << US of A.

don't forget of course that this is the same nation that manages to mysteriously grows miles of territory when it comes to measuring against the US

Pretty much any statistic that comes out of China should be taken with an extreme amount of skepticism because they are interested first and foremost with impressing the outside world with China's performance. Personally, I feel that China has been drastically overstating its economic performance and fails to take in to account the atrocious economic damage stemming from its policies, which should be included in measurements of its economic performance.

I mean, China's environment and quality of life compared to Japan or the US is far shittier than any developed nation and is pretty much in line with the impoverished Third World nations...you just can't say they're on the same level as any developed nation even if their nominal GDP is in fact bigger.

Who cares? I'm more worried about the Giant Robot War. Japan is going to rule the world.

too bad its less than half of the EU *is far too busy ruling the world to worry about the third world*


It'll prolly pass EU as well, within 30 years.

Pretty much any statistic that comes out of China should be taken with an extreme amount of skepticism because they are interested first and foremost with impressing the outside world with China's performance. Personally, I feel that China has been drastically overstating its economic performance and fails to take in to account the atrocious economic damage stemming from its policies, which should be included in measurements of its economic performance.

I mean, China's environment and quality of life compared to Japan or the US is far shittier than any developed nation and is pretty much in line with the impoverished Third World nations...you just can't say they're on the same level as any developed nation even if their nominal GDP is in fact bigger.

They are using UN and IMF sources.

Quantitatively, sure. However, I'm intensely skeptical about comparing China to Japan, Germany or other nations on a qualitative basis; their economic growth is far more intensive and more likely to produce sustainable, long term benefits than China, whose economy consists first and foremost of low-value, low-tech manufacturing and services that aren't really that useful for promoting any kind of long-term prosperity.


Next Silicon Valley emerging in India, China: Accenture
4 Mar 2009, 1339 hrs IST, PTI

CHICAGO: Developing countries like India, China and Brazil may soon become Silicon Valley's new address as their receptiveness to new ideas in
technology
devices and networked services will encourage high-tech companies to test new service offerings in these emerging markets, a study said.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Infotech/ITeS/Next-Silicon-Valley-emerging-in-India-China-Accenture/articleshow/4222756.cms

It'll prolly pass EU as well, within 30 years.

by selling us tacky electronics?

They are using UN and IMF sources.

and where do you think they get their data from?

by selling us tacky electronics?


By waiting for the EU to fall apart and EU countries to secede.

by selling us tacky electronics?


No, they have 1.4 billion people. EU has 500 million.


and where do you think they get their data from?

Ok, any proof of them lying?

No, they have 1.4 billion people. EU has 500 million.



Ok, any proof of them lying?

The numbers don't add up. China claimed to have met its "GDP target" last quarter but industrial electricity use plummeted by ~20% during the same time. This smells fishy like the Soviet statistics in the 30s. Also Wen Jiabao is crazy if he claims China can grow GDP 8% this year. Unless he resorts to Stalinist methods to forcibly over(mis)allocate resources, China's due for major liquidation and GDP contraction in the near to mid term.

The numbers don't add up. China claimed to have met its "GDP target" last quarter but industrial electricity use plummeted by ~20% during the same time. This smells fishy like the Soviet statistics in the 30s. Also Wen Jiabao is crazy if he claims China can grow 8% GDP this year. Unless he resorts to Stalinist methods to forcibly over(mis)allocate resources, China's due for major liquidation and GDP contraction in the near to mid term.

Sources?

Sources?

Claims of 6.8% GDP growth in Q4 (http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90776/90884/6579339.html)

do not jive with plummeting use of electricity:

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-03/10/content_10985155.htm

Note that 6.8% growth perfectly met the state statisticians' forecast much as how a 1930s Ukrainian collective farm always meets the harvest quota.