NationStates Jolt Archive

Opening up discussion, throwing some thoughts out there. We are one planet out of TRILLIONS in the Universe. There are an estimated 200-400 billion suns in just our galaxy, with billions possibly trillions of planets just in our one galaxy alone, and billions of galaxies in the Universe.

So why have we not encountered extraterrestial civilizations of any kind? Even received a scout? Or have we?

Distance? We have, but conspiracy cover-up? Life is truly so statistically rare that we are it (in which case we have screwed up big time). God created just us?

They are too smart to enter Earth.

Inter-galactic travel is much more difficult without 'warp speed' and other such sci-fi conventions. Even if such other civilizations exist they might live too far to be able to see us or reach us.

Opening up discussion, throwing some thoughts out there. We are one planet out of TRILLIONS in the Universe. There are an estimated 200-400 billion suns in just our galaxy, with billions possibly trillions of planets just in our one galaxy alone, and billions of galaxies in the Universe.

So why have we not encountered extraterrestial civilizations of any kind? Even received a scout? Or have we?


It's highly likely that there are a helluva lot technological societies in the Universe (and I'm restricting just to technological societies, intelligence and life are even more likely).

Still, also there is this:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_relativity

to the best of our current knowledge.

We are one planet amongst possibly trillions, as you said. Us puny humans have been around for only a short while, and have been able to write down that the aliens came for even less time. Hell, the whole concept of an "alien" is new - before that we had gods, spirits and weird things.

Considering it takes thousands of years to travel between the stars, assuming that things like hyper and warpdrive truly belong in the realm of science fiction, it would have been an amazing coincidence if earth had been found at a time we would actually be around to witness or even notice it - and the chances of those aliens finding us even remotely interesting is even smaller.

Of course, our radiowaves will now help a tiny bit. But only a tiny.

There's probably only a small proportion of the planets with life that are technologically advanced enough to locate planets with lifeforms and travel such long distances (if this is indeed technologically possible). If they are so much more advanced than us, I doubt they'd be interested enough in our primitive world to investigate us. Why would we be so important to them?

If they are so much more advanced than us, I doubt they'd be interested enough in our primitive world to investigate us. Why would we be so important to them?

Cows wonder this about humans.

Because the universe is so fucking massive, that's why.

There's probably only a small proportion of the planets with life that are technologically advanced enough to locate planets with lifeforms and travel such long distances (if this is indeed technologically possible). If they are so much more advanced than us, I doubt they'd be interested enough in our primitive world to investigate us. Why would we be so important to them?

We study ants as well.

I range between that we have been visited.

It is sad to say but I also wonder all of the DANGERS if many survive or at least are even able to develop to the point of space travel. Major disasters from space (solar flares, meteors), climate change, something like atomic war, mass epidemic. Stars die, etc. I wonder if our window of time is just really good and we are lucky.

It took us thousands of years just to get electricity or even anything basic (there is some evidence of atomic war in India now that archaeologists have found, and stories of war that wiped out an entire civilization here on Earth but it is still sketchy)

there is some evidence of atomic war in India now that archaeologists have found

:confused: could you give me to some source?

Chances there are, that natural phenomena of radioactivity are mistaken for artificial ones. After all, there was a natural "nuclear reactor" in Africa some MY ago, iirc.

You really should have let us vote for multiple options. I believe we are possibly being visited now, but I also think most civilizations may collapse before they get starships, for example.

Maybe they are just looking at us, observing our behaviour, and if we prove to be decent creatures, they will contact us.

So, they'll probably never contact us.

Maybe Earth is like the Detroit of the galaxy. We're the planet where E.T rolls up his space-windows and locks his space-doors when he rolls by. Of course, when we do break out, the rest of the galaxy is going think the space-Mongols are rampaging or something.

Some say the Old Greeks had computers.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/06/07/antikythera_mechanism/

And the Babylonians had batteries

http://www.forbiddenhistory.info/?q=node/37

And some 4000 year old South American culture could produce a metal, which is know to the western world since a few decades...

Maybe they just are not aware of us and can't see us. Maybe they live in an another dimension, have another perception of reality...

Aliens have visited, but they've covered it up. They also show great intelligence in only visiting yokels in places like Bumfuck Idaho, so no-one ever believes the witnesses.

Maybe they are just looking at us, observing our behaviour, and if we prove to be decent creatures, they will contact us.

So, they'll probably never contact us.

Ah, human bashing. You can always count on its appearance in these types of threads.

Why must we always dismiss and denigrate our own species? Why are we likely to be at the bottom any more than we are likely to be at the top?:headbang:

Maybe its because even some of the most cynical of us are secretly unwilling to believe that our species might simply be normal, and only as extraordinary as every other one.

Ah, human bashing. You can always count on its appearance in these types of threads.

Why must we always dismiss and denigrate our own species? Why are we likely to be at the bottom any more than we are likely to be at the top?:headbang:

Maybe its because even some of the most cynical of us are secretly unwilling to believe that our species might simply be normal, and only as extraordinary as every other one.

I believe that we are very likely to destroy ourselves before we ever develop the technology necessary to travel to distant planets. This would of course apply to any species that resembles us, and so the only alien civilisations that could possible visit us are those few top-class species that managed to survive themselves long enough.

And some 4000 year old South American culture could produce a metal, which is know to the western world since a few decades...

I think it was called 'electrum' or something similar. Wasn't it gold and silver alloyed together some way?

I believe that we are very likely to destroy ourselves before we ever develop the technology necessary to travel to distant planets. This would of course apply to any species that resembles us, and so the only alien civilisations that could possible visit us are those few top-class species that managed to survive themselves long enough.

I see another more grim way. If for example the Nazis had managed to conquer the Earth, you can imagine some global dictatorship or fascist civilization such as that managing to just funnel funds toward science to develop a space program.

The Roman Empire survived for over 1000 years in almost continuity. Imagine a civilization doing that through an industrial-like era, and modern tech era.

I think it was called 'electrum' or something similar. Wasn't it gold and silver alloyed together some way?

I really don't know anymore. What I remember was the heating problem. You needed a very high temperature to produce the metal and the west is capable of doing this since a few decades.

I believe that we are very likely to destroy ourselves before we ever develop the technology necessary to travel to distant planets. This would of course apply to any species that resembles us, and so the only alien civilisations that could possible visit us are those few top-class species that managed to survive themselves long enough.

I doubt we'll outright wipe out our species any time soon. However, it is possible, perhaps even likely, that we will destroy our space capability along with much of our modern civilization.

That said, their is no reason why we couldn't get off this world on a large scale. We could have bases on other planets already if we had the political will. I have a problem with attitudes like your's because frankly, defeatism will get us nowhere. Nothing will kill us more surely than apathy, or the kind of despair that tells us their's no point planning for the future.

I see another more grim way. If for example the Nazis had managed to conquer the Earth, you can imagine some global dictatorship or fascist civilization such as that managing to just funnel funds toward science to develop a space program.

Rome survived for over 1000 years in almost continuity. Imagine a civilization doing that through an industrial-like era, and modern tech era.

So we're just waiting for an invasion of Space-Nazis? Dang. Let's hope FTL travel really is impossible.

So we're just waiting for an invasion of Space-Nazis? Dang. Let's hope FTL travel really is impossible.

I mean even just beyond Nazis. Look at the Roman Empire. We really don't know what we will get. Democracy on our world is recent. They could be imperialistic, have a caste system, etc. Who knows? They may have different moral ideas about enslavement, conquering, destruction. Sad to say but true.

Also a global imperial power would have more capability to put their will into a powerful space program, and consume the resources they wanted to for it.

Let me note I would think they would be more enlightened actually, but we could get either-or. I believe that they would probably be one or the other extreme for some reason though.

I voted "quarantine zone etc" and I'll tell you why.

We are no threat to any life from other planets until we develop and use interstellar travel. Even then, we are very little threat to the (very plausible) advanced civilizations who have used such technology for thousands or millions of years.

Until we pose a threat to them, other more technologically advanced civilizations have no reason to deal with us. On the contrary, they may well have ethical reasons not to deal with us (Prime Directive isn't far wrong.)

The aliens who may be visiting us, the transmissions of meaningful radio waves we seek with SETI ... these will come only from civilizations barely more advanced than ourselves. It won't harm us much to find a similarly advanced alien race ... even if things went badly and we each declared war on each other, we couldn't do much harm with our current technology.

But it would certainly change our future history to be visited by, or enter into communication with, vastly more developed alien races. The information they could give us, or trade with us, would essentially allow us to become just like them, losing all the unique features we might develop in the centuries to come.

The human race deserves its childhood. It deserves the time to find its own destiny, and grow a conscience to fit its power as that develops. We are yet young, we are babes in the cot of our own Earth.

Perhaps aliens would intervene to save us from fatal consequences of our own actions. Perhaps they already have? I think it more likely they would let us kill ourselves ... there is a sort of impartial justice to that: what better limit of our fitness to deal with other species, than our ability to survive without competition? And that might be only the first test.

Remember, we are very very young. If there are other kinds of life out there, some of them will be billions of years older than we are.

I have a problem with attitudes like your's because frankly, defeatism will get us nowhere. Nothing will kill us more surely than apathy, or the kind of despair that tells us their's no point planning for the future.

I am not apathetic or defeatist. I only try to recognise the problems, so that I can try to find solutions. Claiming that we are doing great won't do us much good either.

I'm wondering why people always seem to think that beings from other planets have to be superior.

It's possible that we, humans, are the smartest ones around as well.

I'm wondering why people always seem to think that beings from other planets have to be superior.

They believe some may be superior. Look at how much we learned in the past few centuries. Perhaps some other race was there 5000 years ago. Ages of solar systems after all vary.

It's possible that we, humans, are the smartest ones around as well.

If aliens exist, there will no doubt be lesser developed ones as well.

I mean even just beyond Nazis. Look at the Roman Empire. We really don't know what we will get. Democracy on our world is recent. They could be imperialistic, have a caste system, etc. Who knows? They may have different moral ideas about enslavement, conquering, destruction. Sad to say but true.

Also a global imperial power would have more capability to put their will into a powerful space program, and consume the resources they wanted to for it.

This is actually a good reason to build up our own space program. We don't know what's out their, and until we do, should we not prepare for anything?

Let me note I would think they would be more enlightened actually, but we could get either-or. I believe that they would probably be one or the other extreme for some reason though.

A common assumption, but perhaps an illogical one. We have one example of a technological civilization to extrapolate from: our's. Why should they be an extreme, any more than we are?

It is perhaps likely, however, that they would be less war like, and take a longer-term view of many things. Natural selection might favor civilizations with those traits surviving to reach interstellar capability.

They believe some may be superior. Look at how much we learned in the past few centuries. Perhaps some other race was there 5000 years ago. Ages of solar systems after all vary. If aliens exist, there will no doubt be lesser developed ones as well.

I remember reading a science-fiction story once(I can't remember the title or the author) where this alien civilization tried to invade Earth. They were the boss civilization of the galaxy, apparently, and they had developed a FTL system at the very dawn of their 'Industrial Revolution' and all their technology had sprung from that, with the result that (for some reason that I can't remember)they had wooden ships and their armor and armaments were at roughly a 1500 A.D. level. When they tried to invade, we whupped their tails, and took their ships, and the aliens were horrified when they realized they had unleashed us on the galaxy.

They believe some may be superior. Look at how much we learned in the past few centuries. Perhaps some other race was there 5000 years ago. Ages of solar systems after all vary.


Time is important but not the determinating factor.


Our world is rather small, but is still counting zillion of species and only one managed to achieve a rather high technically level.

And even we, humans, had our ups and downs. I'm sometimes wondering what the Romans could have achieved if they were not pestered by the Barbarians and others all the time...

I am not apathetic or defeatist. I only try to recognise the problems, so that I can try to find solutions. Claiming that we are doing great won't do us much good either.

I hope so, and maybe I was too aggressive. I just dislike the general mentality that we're a doomed species.

I resent the implication, however, that I am being falsely optimistic. I fully acknowledge that our odds may not be good. I just feel that defeatism serves little purpose.

Because the sheer distances involved makes it highly unlikely they'd ever find us - or us them.
Think about it. Our nearest neighbouring star is 4.3 light years away and it's not suitable at all.

So we need to look further afield. Let's say there is a technologically advanced civilisation 100 light years away from us (and that's being very generous considering the size of the Milky Way), and that they had somehow achieved light-speed travel. It would still take them a 200 year round trip to get to us. Say they can only achieve 50% light-speed travel (more likely): Now the trip would take them 400 years. They would have needed to have set off in 1809 in order to get here this year.

Which brings up the next salient point: Why would they bother coming here? Answer: Only if they had detected intelligent life here.
Next question: What's the easiest way to detect intelligent life? Answer: Radio wave transmission. (sure there are other ways: analysing planetary atmosphere for tell-tale signs of inhabitation is one, but that doesn't necessarily prove advanced civilisation. What's the point of investing a great deal of time and money setting off to visit a planet only to find the civilisation is at, say, Ancient Egyptian level? All that would happen is you'd be worshiped as a God. Nice but not meaningful really).
So they're out there, doing what we're doing, SETI'ing the stars. Here's the thing: we've only been transmitting radio waves for the last 100 years or so, and only SETI transmission the last 30 or so.
This means that any alien civilisation that has detected us can't be more than 30 or 40 light years away. 100 max (and that's pushing it). Say they're 70 light years away and detected us from a 1970 transmission. Assuming they don't have FTL travel, it would be another 30 years before we receive a reply from them.

And then there's the consideration about civilisation. Humans have had civilisations of a sort stretching back 6000 years, give or take a century or two. Yet it's only been, as I already mentioned, in the last 100 years that we've had radio transmission. This on a planet 4.5 Billion years old - 0.000002% of the Earth's history, and 1.6% of Human history has there been the ability to contact other planets.
Assuming this is normal (and lacking any contrary evidence, we can only do assume so), there's such a very small probability that any other alien civilisation is at or above our level and is able to search for us that it's effectively zero. They might be 500 years behind us technologically-speaking. Which means another 500 years or so before they begin looking for us. Will we still be around in our current state in 500 years? I doubt it. They might finally get to the stage of looking for us, and we're no longer transmitting!
And of course, the converse may apply: 500 years ago the alien civilisation might have been bombarding us with radio transmissions but of course we had no idea. We now can look but they might have wiped themselves out in the meantime.

So to answer your question: Yes, there are other civilisations out there. Probability all but guarantees this. But the chances of ever finding them is practically zero.

I think it was called 'electrum' or something similar. Wasn't it gold and silver alloyed together some way?

If it's electrum, the greeks used to mint coins in electrum about 2700 years ago.
Not that it's exactly difficult to make a silver-gold alloy. They mix together quite well.

Right now I am looking at India's history as recent archaeological evidence shows that they may actually have had the oldest cities of known history and some about the Mayans. The Harappa civilization had well laid out cities and a developed social economic system. From Wikipedia: "The Indus Valley civilization (also known as Harappan culture) has its earliest roots in cultures such as that of Mehrgarh, approximately 6000 BC. The two greatest cities, Mohenjo-Daro and Harappa, emerged circa 2600 BC along the Indus River valley in Punjab and Sindh.[3] The civilization, with a writing system, urban centers, and diversified social and economic system, was rediscovered in the 1920s after excavations at Mohenjo-daro (which means "mound of the dead").

It just seems to me that there is the high possibility a large part of our own history is still not known that may show insight into possible meetings with extraterrestial civilizations or evidence that there was once an advanced civilization on Earth itself.

Right now I am looking at India's history as recent archaeological evidence shows that they may actually have had the oldest cities of known history...
I already knew about Harappa and Mohenjo-Daro (here we study it at school along with the first cities of Middle-East and of Egypt).
I wished you could provide me with some link to that nuclear warfare thingie you spoke of in a previous post of yours.

tbh I've never subscribed to the theory most humans seem to have that we are so fascinating that if there were aliens out there they would have definitely have visited us by now. I think that if there are other lifeforms out there we are as interesting to them as, say, donkeys are to us. I'm not saying we are inferior, I just dont think we are an object of deep curiousity for them and so they dont feel the need to spend their existences trying to communicate with us.

Which brings up the next salient point: Why would they bother coming here? Answer: Only if they had detected intelligent life here.

An utterly unsupported assumption. Maybe something is happening/has happened to their world, and this system is the nearest one they can reach. Maybe they've been gradually expanding out for millenia, with each new generation seeking out a new frontier to colonize. Maybe they have religious reasons for doing so. Maybe they'd find intelligent life a reason to avoid a place (paranoia, Prime Directive, religious reasons, etc).

tbh I've never subscribed to the theory most humans seem to have that we are so fascinating that if there were aliens out there they would have definitely have visited us by now. I think that if there are other lifeforms out there we are as interesting to them as, say, donkeys are to us. I'm not saying we are inferior, I just dont think we are an object of deep curiousity for them and so they dont feel the need to spend their existences trying to communicate with us.

Why not? We sure would want to communicate with them.

Also, I find chimps a more apt analogy, as I've made clear before.

It's just too big. They've got a one-in-trillions chance of finding our planet, whether by telescope or by space travel.

I believe that we are very likely to destroy ourselves before we ever develop the technology necessary to travel to distant planets. This would of course apply to any species that resembles us, and so the only alien civilisations that could possible visit us are those few top-class species that managed to survive themselves long enough.

The real question for me, is whether that same principle applies to any technological civilization. That they are technological, and dominant in their planetary ecosystem, requires that they be competetive with each other as we are. Or ... not?

It seems to be a principle, following from natural selection. But is natural selection a principle only of Earth? It seems a strong principle, which should apply to any ecosystem. But we know nothing of life on other planets. And we don't know our own future, we can't even imagine what a species just like ours (our own in fact) would be like with a thousand or a million years more of technological progress.

We gain power over our own genome, within a century of gaining the power to exterminate ourselves, and within a century of the power to colonize planets of other stars (were we to direct our energies so.) Is this a principle of all technological civilizations?

A common assumption, but perhaps an illogical one. We have one example of a technological civilization to extrapolate from: our's. Why should they be an extreme, any more than we are?
not so illogical. I think it's based on the idea that a warlike race would destroy itself before it reached the technology level capable of interstellar travel.

Likewise the idea that the aliens might be akin to Rome, or Egypt in terms of social structure. Problem is that those civilisations on Earth died out due mainly to their social structure. Having loads of slaves, or a workforce happy to labour away just for the good of the king, makes the society indolent. Why didn't Rome advance further, when they certainly had the technology and skill? Their level was at least equal to 16th Century Europe. So why didn't they go further? My guess is because they had slaves to do all the messy work: There was no need for them to industralise.
And so, their society and civilisation stagnated and corrupted until they were easy pickings.
I feel this would always happen with such societies, meaning the chances of meeting a giant galactic-spanning Romesque society is low. Lower than the almost zero chance we have anyway of meeting anything!

On the atomic weapons it seems I was mistaken, that though mentioned in some books I have read there seems to be no credibility on the Internet. I have read it was studied at one time though, but their still not sure if it is just a natural radiation. Though if I remember correctly one article I read (that I cannot find at the moment) said there was something unique about what was found at this spot in India.


Also the thousands of years old early Vedic texts describe flying machines that shoot darts (missiles) with some interesting descriptions. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vimana . The sages also that wrote these texts, some older than 2000 B.C. spoke as if there was ancient history with civilizations beyond them.

I honestly really think we don't know everything about our own early history.


Just to make a point that has not been mentioned.

If you assume the UFO stories are true, and the historical contact with aliens is true (which there is a lot of weird historical evidence) the only possibility is that we are a protected/quarantined planet for some reason.

Which brings up the next salient point: Why would they bother coming here? Answer: Only if they had detected intelligent life here.

I don't know if that would be enough. Suppose we knew for certain that there was intelligent life at a certain star. Travel there is theoretically possible, but would cost us $ 10.000.000.000.000.000.000,00 and take us 2000 years.

Would we ?

And even if we detect them, why would we be capable of communicating with them?

Take our own planet. Beside humans, all kind of species are very intelligent, by instance dolphins. After years of studying those animals, we barely can communicate with them yet.

I don't know if that would be enough. Suppose we knew for certain that there was intelligent life at a certain star. Travel there is theoretically possible, but would cost us $ 10.000.000.000.000.000.000,00 and take us 2000 years.

Would we ?

On that point....

How depressing is it going to be when we do receive a signal, only to discover this is the case or the civilization may not even be there any more.

I wonder if that will drive people to want to support a space program. It would probably create a rather large debate.

It's just too big. They've got a one-in-trillions chance of finding our planet, whether by telescope or by space travel.

We search for them, by listening to radio waves.

If they have better technology, they could find us just the same way. By listening for patterns in radio waves.

"Take us to your Chuck Berry. What, you let him die? EXTERMINATE!"

...what makes you think that we don't already have intelligent nonhumans on earth? If their technology is high enough, they can reliably disguise themselves as humans, and may be, say, browsing NSG at this very moment.

Why not? We sure would want to communicate with them.

Also, I find chimps a more apt analogy, as I've made clear before.


hmmmm, maybe a race of super-people with their curiousity gene bred out? :p

Also I refer back to my donkey/chimpanzee analogy/drivel, they don't want to communicate with us because we aren't that interesting to them. Just because we would want to communicate with them does not equal them wanting to communicate with us.

It also could be a possibility that with such a large universe the alien species is riiiight over the other side and can't actually detect our presence, much the same way we can't detect theirs

$ 10.000.000.000.000.000.000,00

That's about as much as the Iraq war has cost so far, isn't it?

Just imagine where we'd be if it hadn't been for George W.

:wink:

How depressing is it going to be when we do receive a signal, only to discover this is the case or the civilization may not even be there any more.

Due to time dilation it is almost certain the civilisation will not be there anymore when you arrive with your spaceship anyway. While the travellers on board the ship may feel like "only" a few hundred years have passed while travelling at near light speed, it may have been a few million on the target planet. And the home planet for that matter as well - meaning the crew may well being the only humans in existence when they finally arrive at a now dead planet.

Damn you Einstein ;)

And even if we detect them, why would we be capable of communicating with them?

Take our own planet. Beside humans, all kind of species are very intelligent, by instance dolphins. After years of studying those animals, we barely can communicate with them yet.

We could easily communicate with aliens more intelligent than ourselves.

But they probably wouldn't bother, any more than we make a huge effort to understand dolphins.

We know what they're going to say, right? "Stop pinging us with the sonar, and stop eating all our goddam fish, you human fascist! Also, you should kill more whales."

Due to time dilation it is almost certain the civilisation will not be there anymore when you arrive with your spaceship anyway. While the travellers on board the ship may feel like "only" a few hundred years have passed while travelling at near light speed, it may have been a few million on the target planet. And the home planet for that matter as well - meaning the crew may well being the only humans in existence when they finally arrive at a now dead planet.

Damn you Einstein ;)

So is this proven that Physics as we know it now makes FTL space travel almost impossible or if possible it would have such warped effects that it is not even reasonable to use?

Due to time dilation it is almost certain the civilisation will not be there anymore when you arrive with your spaceship anyway. While the travellers on board the ship may feel like "only" a few hundred years have passed while travelling at near light speed, it may have been a few million on the target planet. And the home planet for that matter as well - meaning the crew may well being the only humans in existence when they finally arrive at a now dead planet.

Damn you Einstein ;)

If the planet you are visiting is only a few hundred light years away, it will cost you only a few hundred years to get there (at light speed). There's quite a reasonable probability that the local civ will still be alive and kicking.

Let's try that before checking out worlds that are millions of lightyears away, shall we? :)

So is this proven that Physics as we know it now makes FTL space travel almost impossible or if possible it would have such warped effects that it is not even reasonable to use?
No, but it's not disproven. Damned scientists :p

We don't know what's out their, and until we do, should we not prepare for anything?

Nations are too busy yelling at each other and pointing weapons to be investing in the event of statistically unlikely maybes.

An utterly unsupported assumption. Maybe something is happening/has happened to their world, and this system is the nearest one they can reach. Maybe they've been gradually expanding out for millenia, with each new generation seeking out a new frontier to colonize. Maybe they have religious reasons for doing so. Maybe they'd find intelligent life a reason to avoid a place (paranoia, Prime Directive, religious reasons, etc).
and the support you have for your assumptions...?

Mine's based on the idea that, considering the amount of money, time and effort it would take to invest into interstellar travel there better be a damn good reason why we would want to. I can think of no better reason than the idea of contact with an alien civilisation. What else is there? Exploitation of the alien world's minerals etc? The cost of getting them would be more than they're worth.

Your assumptions on the other hand are dreadfully contrived.
If this is the nearest planet they can reach it would mean living within a few light years of us - enough time to contact us via radio transmission.
If they've been gradually expanding out for millenia, this would mean assuming that their society's remained static, which is not good.

Maybe our neighbours are the sort that like to keep themselves to themselves.

Why not? We sure would want to communicate with them.

Also, I find chimps a more apt analogy, as I've made clear before.

You're investing way too much hope in the "Aliens are just like me but with slight, negligible differences" idea.

If 65 million years ago, no catastrophic event occurred, we still would be dinosaurs walking around with an egg sized brain.

That is true. Going with the dolphin thought, what if they just did not even have the potential for manual manipulation? They might be developed in intelligence, but may be air or water bound creatures. What kind of technology do they even have then? What do they even develop? Very little probably. They probably have a society with roles, but probably no technology.

Due to time dilation it is almost certain the civilisation will not be there anymore when you arrive with your spaceship anyway. While the travellers on board the ship may feel like "only" a few hundred years have passed while travelling at near light speed, it may have been a few million on the target planet. And the home planet for that matter as well - meaning the crew may well being the only humans in existence when they finally arrive at a now dead planet.

That's a very negative view.

If neither civilization dies out, it's a great adventure for the crew. They basically travel forward in time and see wonders they couldn't imagine, from the future.

When they send a message back (at light-speed) it arrives at an Earth a million years more advanced than the planet the ship visited. So it's of more or less historical interest, not any kind of technological scoop.

OK, it's boring for the planets at each end. But it's gigantorific fun for the crew!

Unless of course someone discovers FTL travel in the intervening million years. Then they are pretty much a caveman in a tin can.

If you assume the UFO stories are true, and the historical contact with aliens is true (which there is a lot of weird historical evidence) the only possibility is that we are a protected/quarantined planet for some reason.
Not the only possibility. The other, equally depressing, is that the alien civilisation has long since died out. You mention the texts are >2000 years old, referring to stuff older still.
Look how much our civ's changed in that time - and, more importantly, how close we've come to being wiped out by nuclear war. Or if not being totally wiped out look how many centuries we lost from the fall of the Roman Empire: ~1000 years passed before we reached, then surpassed, their technological level.
This could have happened to ET. Right now, he could be wandering a nuclear desert-scape, Fallout style, pondering over the strange immense rusting tubular shapes and the ancient folklores about how they had once travelled to their moon and beyond.

If 65 million years ago, no catastrophic event occurred, we still would be dinosaurs walking around with an egg sized brain.
Some people are this.

Not the only possibility. The other, equally depressing, is that the alien civilisation has long since died out. You mention the texts are >2000 years old, referring to stuff older still.
Look how much our civ's changed in that time - and, more importantly, how close we've come to being wiped out by nuclear war. Or if not being totally wiped out look how many centuries we lost from the fall of the Roman Empire: ~1000 years passed before we reached, then surpassed, their technological level.
This could have happened to ET. Right now, he could be wandering a nuclear desert-scape, Fallout style, pondering over the strange immense rusting tubular shapes and the ancient folklores about how they had once travelled to their moon and beyond.

I guess we are also the first ones in our time in history to think of time capsules.

Opening up discussion, throwing some thoughts out there. We are one planet out of TRILLIONS in the Universe. There are an estimated 200-400 billion suns in just our galaxy, with billions possibly trillions of planets just in our one galaxy alone, and billions of galaxies in the Universe.

So why have we not encountered extraterrestial civilizations of any kind? Even received a scout? Or have we?

Distance? We have, but conspiracy cover-up? Life is truly so statistically rare that we are it (in which case we have screwed up big time). God created just us?

The Oort cloud?

Not the only possibility. The other, equally depressing, is that the alien civilisation has long since died out. You mention the texts are >2000 years old, referring to stuff older still.
Look how much our civ's changed in that time - and, more importantly, how close we've come to being wiped out by nuclear war. Or if not being totally wiped out look how many centuries we lost from the fall of the Roman Empire: ~1000 years passed before we reached, then surpassed, their technological level.
This could have happened to ET. Right now, he could be wandering a nuclear desert-scape, Fallout style, pondering over the strange immense rusting tubular shapes and the ancient folklores about how they had once travelled to their moon and beyond.

Isn't it arrogant and anthropocentric to assume that a "civilization" of aliens would suffer this same cycle of rise and fall as ours do?

Further, isn't it almost irrationally pessimistic to assume that we will never break that cycle ourselves? If we model our expectations of alien civilization on our own ... can't we imagine that their civilization is older, just like ours but a thousand or a million years hence?

Isn't it arrogant and anthropocentric to assume that a "civilization" of aliens would suffer this same cycle of rise and fall as ours do?

Their cycles could be worse. The mote in Gods eye is a very nice scifi novel about that ;)
But yes, we are using very anthropocentric reasoning.

Their cycles could be worse. The mote in Gods eye is a very nice scifi novel about that ;)
But yes, we are using very anthropocentric reasoning.

Yes it is.

Their cycles could be worse. The mote in Gods eye is a very nice scifi novel about that ;)
But yes, we are using very anthropocentric reasoning.

But what else do we have?

Their cycles could be worse. The mote in Gods eye is a very nice scifi novel about that ;)

It's worth the read, yes. Way way too long due to laborious and ultimately repellent characterization (was I the only one who was rooting for the Moties by half way through?) but the Moties are a well-thought-out alien civilization.

But what else do we have?

Well, we have the principles we see in Earth life. Evolution by natural selection, for instance. That seems a strong principle (strong enough in the only case we have, earth life, to create hugely complex creatures from a base of random chemical combinations, and in the face of the also very strong principle of entropy.)

Bearing in mind that the chemical might be only one form of life, we have the rules of chemistry. There are almost certainly other chemical forms of life elsewhere, and of those the carbon-based will predominate. We can see the chemical composition of distant stars and dust clouds, and the only other option for such complex chemistry as we have is silicon-based. That could be very different, but wouldn't it still have to reproduce, to diversify over generations, to advance by evolution?

We don't need to consider all possible forms of life. It suffices to ask why we have no contact with other organisms, evolved by natural selection in ecosystems based on carbon.

That is mystery enough.

That's still, at best, Terracentric though. And still anthropocentric in the sense that it's based on the way Earth anthropoids perceive the universe to be.

We can't really escape that - how do we know life must be chemical-based? How do we know our definition of life is the most common in the universe? Why isn't it more common in dark matter, for example, using exotic multidimensional physics?

It seems that many people just like to dream about an alien civilization that is smarter and more noble as ours.

I guess it's partly due they are not satisfied with the limits and possibilities of humankind.

And even if we detect them, why would we be capable of communicating with them?

Take our own planet. Beside humans, all kind of species are very intelligent, by instance dolphins. After years of studying those animals, we barely can communicate with them yet.

That's because dolphins don't want to talk with their pet humans. They just want the humans to do silly, amusing things, like making boats and giving free fish.

I'm banking on humanity being the first in the club, so that when other species poke their heads into the stars, we can clobber 'em back.

I'm banking on humanity being the first in the club, so that when other species poke their heads into the stars, we can clobber 'em back.

Or charge them for the privilege of using our space-ways.

http://www.lab-initio.com/screen_res/nz229.jpg

This.

Fermi Paradox (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox), bitches!

I apologize if this has been posted before, but keep in mind that space is HUGE. The arecibo message, for example, was fired off in 1974.... so even if they fired off radio waves at every star they know of (except the sun, of coruse) and they traveled both ways at the speed of light, exactly 21 stars are close enough to haved received it and responded. And no, gliese 581 (which they think may have the only habitable planet aside from earth) isn't close enough.

Opening up discussion, throwing some thoughts out there. We are one planet out of TRILLIONS in the Universe. There are an estimated 200-400 billion suns in just our galaxy, with billions possibly trillions of planets just in our one galaxy alone, and billions of galaxies in the Universe.

So why have we not encountered extraterrestial civilizations of any kind? Even received a scout? Or have we?

Distance? We have, but conspiracy cover-up? Life is truly so statistically rare that we are it (in which case we have screwed up big time). God created just us?

Distance, as I have argued in the three or four recent threads we have discussed exactly this in.

Some say the Old Greeks had computers.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2006/06/07/antikythera_mechanism/

And the Babylonians had batteries

http://www.forbiddenhistory.info/?q=node/37

And some 4000 year old South American culture could produce a metal, which is know to the western world since a few decades...

The Antikythera device was not a computer. I demand actual citations and sources, the more scholarly the better.

I see another more grim way. If for example the Nazis had managed to conquer the Earth, you can imagine some global dictatorship or fascist civilization such as that managing to just funnel funds toward science to develop a space program.

The Roman Empire survived for over 1000 years in almost continuity. Imagine a civilization doing that through an industrial-like era, and modern tech era.

I suspect that higher technology and intelligence are inversely correlated with longevity of civilisation. Dinosaurs were the dominant lifeform for millions of years. Primitive humanity for tens of thousands. The Romans for only a thousand (if you're generous with the counting). Modern science is barely 100 years old (dating back to radio).

The reason, at least on this planet, is quite simple - the higher the technology we develop, the easier we find it to destroy each other.

On the atomic weapons it seems I was mistaken, that though mentioned in some books I have read there seems to be no credibility on the Internet. I have read it was studied at one time though, but their still not sure if it is just a natural radiation. Though if I remember correctly one article I read (that I cannot find at the moment) said there was something unique about what was found at this spot in India.


Also the thousands of years old early Vedic texts describe flying machines that shoot darts (missiles) with some interesting descriptions. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vimana . The sages also that wrote these texts, some older than 2000 B.C. spoke as if there was ancient history with civilizations beyond them.

I honestly really think we don't know everything about our own early history.


Just to make a point that has not been mentioned.

If you assume the UFO stories are true, and the historical contact with aliens is true (which there is a lot of weird historical evidence) the only possibility is that we are a protected/quarantined planet for some reason.

A massive if, and one I reject. I consider interstellar distances large enough to make interstellar travel a basic impossibility.

We search for them, by listening to radio waves.

If they have better technology, they could find us just the same way. By listening for patterns in radio waves.

"Take us to your Chuck Berry. What, you let him die? EXTERMINATE!"

As it stands, our radio waves have barely reached 0.0000067% of the stars in our galaxy. Presuming an alien civilisation had received radio signals from us and instantly responded, they could only be in the nearest 12% of those stars (halve the radius of the sphere, you get roughly 12% of the volume).

That's why we haven't had any contact - even if there are a thousand alien civilisations, all advanced enough to have radio, the chances are against us having yet signalled any one of them.

So is this proven that Physics as we know it now makes FTL space travel almost impossible or if possible it would have such warped effects that it is not even reasonable to use?

To the best of our knowledge, information cannot be transmitted faster than the speed of light in a vacuum. This prohibits, among other things, FTL travel.

I apologize if this has been posted before, but keep in mind that space is HUGE. The arecibo message, for example, was fired off in 1974.... so even if they fired off radio waves at every star they know of (except the sun, of coruse) and they traveled both ways at the speed of light, exactly 21 stars are close enough to haved received it and responded. And no, gliese 581 (which they think may have the only habitable planet aside from earth) isn't close enough.

Precisely. Thanks for running the figures on that case - I've only dealt with the more general assumption that aliens would be able to pick up Marconi's first transatlantic transmissions, which is incredibly unlikely.

There are no other intelligent life forms out there. There might be other life, in the form of bacteria or what not, but no other life capable of creating a civilization. Sorry to burst your bubble.

There are no other intelligent life forms out there. There might be other life, in the form of bacteria or what not, but no other life capable of creating a civilization. Sorry to burst your bubble.

and you know this because.....?

and you know this because.....?

The bible of course!

and you know this because.....?

I'll go with something I hear quite a bit in other another debate "Don't see them, thus they don't exist. After all, there is no possible way to measure such a thing"

I think we have been visited in the past and we will be in the future as well.

I'll go with something I hear quite a bit in other another debate "Don't see them, thus they don't exist. After all, there is no possible way to measure such a thing"

Oooooh good strawman!

I'll go with something I hear quite a bit in other another debate "Don't see them, thus they don't exist. After all, there is no possible way to measure such a thing"

How very cute. Strangly enough, there certainly ARE conceivable ways to measure the existance of alien civilizations.

Moreover, despite your little whine on atheists, you miss the fundamental crux of that argument. That aliens, if they exist in this universe, would be observable, would leave evidence of their existance, and would be measureable.

So, despite your poor and feable attempt of a "take THAT atheists!" I fear it was rather a failure of an effort.

I'll go with something I hear quite a bit in other another debate "Don't see them, thus they don't exist. After all, there is no possible way to measure such a thing"

Tell me, how many times have you seen adam, eve, lot, jesus, satan, jehovah, heaven, hell, peter, john, paul, judas, genghis khan, julius caesar, and qin shi huang?

Humanity has been advanced enough to contact aliens for about 50 years. Human civilization has been around for 5000 years or so. Humanity itself, for 100,000 years at most.

The universe is about 13,000,000,000 years old, as near as we can measure. This is about 2,600,000 times older than human civilization, and 260,000,000 times longer than human civilization has been capable of space travel. That gives enough time for thousands or millions of other civilizations and species to rise and fall in our very own solar system alone.

Which brings me to another point: The maximum velocity of anything in the universe is 9,460,800,000,000 kilometers per year. Human communications have penetrated the universe to a depth of about 662,256,000,000,000 kilometers; assuming they are decipherable by the time they reach an alien species, a response will take just as long. The diameter of the universe is estimated at 122,990,400,000,000,000,000,000 kilometers, including thousands of galaxies, each with millions or billions of stars, with billions of planetary bodies and asteroids, of which only a tiny fraction would be capable of supporting life.

In short: Yes, the universe is large enough to support multiple sapient species. It's also large enough that they can spread out across whole galaxies and still never meet. And the amount of life in the universe is likely small enough as to be almost negligible -- Douglas Adams had a memorable quote about that, which, ironically, I've forgotten.

Hey dont know about you guys but Satan drops by all the time

Hey dont know about you guys but Satan drops by all the time

You should consider moving.

Or, for the tl;dr explanation: We haven't talked to any other intelligent species for the same reason Charlemagne never talked to the native americans.

Hey dont know about you guys but Satan drops by all the time

True, God and all his angels - even the fallen ones - are ETs. But I fear their homestar exploded a few thousand years ago - the light from that reaching us.. well.. about 2009 years ago, give or take a decade ;)

Because we haven't discovered the Warp yet, Chaos hasn't found us yet. Enjoy this brief period of peace before the grim darkness of the future arrives.

Because we haven't discovered the Warp yet, Chaos hasn't found us yet. Enjoy this brief period of peace before the grim darkness of the future arrives.

Win.

Because we haven't discovered the Warp yet, Chaos hasn't found us yet. Enjoy this brief period of peace before the grim darkness of the future arrives.

http://www.myconfinedspace.com/watermark.php?src=wp-content/uploads/2007/01/emperor-of-catkind.jpg

http://www.myconfinedspace.com/watermark.php?src=wp-content/uploads/2007/01/emperor-of-catkind.jpg

http://i558.photobucket.com/albums/ss30/Trve_photos/40kKhorne01.jpg

So why have we not encountered extraterrestial civilizations of any kind? Even received a scout? Or have we?

Distance? We have, but conspiracy cover-up? Life is truly so statistically rare that we are it (in which case we have screwed up big time). God created just us?

The problem is more 3 dimensional (or more) then just purely distance. Its also Time. There could have been nearby civilizations(in relative space terms) that have risen prospered and decayed even hundreds of times over with all evidence washed away and we would never know it because we need to be close in both space and time to possibly be able to detect anything.

St Clair Island above said it better than i did and used a bunch of numbers with zeros in it for bonus effect.

I remember reading a science-fiction story once(I can't remember the title or the author) where this alien civilization tried to invade Earth. They were the boss civilization of the galaxy, apparently, and they had developed a FTL system at the very dawn of their 'Industrial Revolution' and all their technology had sprung from that, with the result that (for some reason that I can't remember)they had wooden ships and their armor and armaments were at roughly a 1500 A.D. level. When they tried to invade, we whupped their tails, and took their ships, and the aliens were horrified when they realized they had unleashed us on the galaxy.

Harry Turtledove - The Road Not Taken

Win.

Judging by your avatar, I would think you'd be happy to see Chaos get here.

There are no other intelligent life forms out there. There might be other life, in the form of bacteria or what not, but no other life capable of creating a civilization. Sorry to burst your bubble.

I'd hazard at this if I'm in a giving mood.

time to accept that we may well be completely alone, a tiny spec in a vast black void and until I see some sort of evidence this is what I will presume

I think we have been visited in the past

is this one of those aliens built the pyramids claptrap theories?

Or, for the tl;dr explanation: We haven't talked to any other intelligent species for the same reason Charlemagne never talked to the native americans.

actually iirc Cleopatra tested positive for cocaine :wink:

Why would aliens want to visit this planet?

Mostly harmless

actually iirc Cleopatra tested positive for cocaine :wink:

No no, you're thinking of Miss Cleo. :p

and the support you have for your assumptions...?

I'm not so much assuming, in this case, as I am pointing out that we don't have a basis on which to assume anything.

Mine's based on the idea that, considering the amount of money, time and effort it would take to invest into interstellar travel there better be a damn good reason why we would want to. I can think of no better reason than the idea of contact with an alien civilisation. What else is there? Exploitation of the alien world's minerals etc? The cost of getting them would be more than they're worth.

I gave you some possible reasons. The point is, you're assuming that their is only one plausible motivation, when even at our primitive level of technology and knowledge, we humans can come up with others. You made a claim that is by nature speculative and without supporting evidence. Fine, people do that sometimes. Just don't pretend that their is no possible motivation but the one you gave.

Your assumptions on the other hand are dreadfully contrived.

When in the statement in question did I assume anything? All I did was suggest a series of possible alternatives, in a highly speculative discussion where you are now insisting that your reason is the only right one.

If this is the nearest planet they can reach it would mean living within a few light years of us - enough time to contact us via radio transmission.

Presuming they wish to openly contact us.

Also, we don't know how many habitable planets their are yet. They might be further away, but we might still be the closest habitable world (or they could terraform Mars I suppose). The point is, we might be in the closest system with inhabitable worlds.

If they've been gradually expanding out for millenia, this would mean assuming that their society's remained static, which is not good.

Hardly. With ten thousand colonies, each largely isolated from the others, each would potentially have a very different society and culture. In fact, establishing new societies that fit a particular culture is one of the hypothetical reasons given why someone would set up a space collony.

That's still, at best, Terracentric though. And still anthropocentric in the sense that it's based on the way Earth anthropoids perceive the universe to be.

I really doubt that all our science is wrong. There is an awful lot we don't know yet, and yes we probably have a few things wrong. But we do have a bit of a clue you know.



We can't really escape that - how do we know life must be chemical-based? How do we know our definition of life is the most common in the universe? Why isn't it more common in dark matter, for example, using exotic multidimensional physics?

I don't care much about that. Life that lives in stars doesn't need to compete with life that lives on temperate planets. Neither of them needs to compete with life in dust clouds or dark matter or electromagnetic fields.

So it doesn't really matter which kind is the "most common." They can co-exist, and from what we do know it seems that carbon-based life should exist on any temperate planet. For a long time the simplest explanation for the aliens not being noticable around us was that planets were extremely rare, but now it seems that is not so.

Why would aliens want to visit this planet?

drugs and whores which is oddly enough the very thing astronauts are discouraged from doing

No no, you're thinking of Miss Cleo. :p

how would you go about testing for cocaine anyway I hear it leaves your system after 3 days :confused:

Why would aliens want to visit this planet?

Why does anyone go travelling? The exotic cuisine, unfamiliar sunsets, and the chance to meet and dissect interesting people of course!

I really doubt that all our science is wrong. There is an awful lot we don't know yet, and yes we probably have a few things wrong. But we do have a bit of a clue you know.

I don't care much about that. Life that lives in stars doesn't need to compete with life that lives on temperate planets. Neither of them needs to compete with life in dust clouds or dark matter or electromagnetic fields.

So it doesn't really matter which kind is the "most common." They can co-exist, and from what we do know it seems that carbon-based life should exist on any temperate planet. For a long time the simplest explanation for the aliens not being noticable around us was that planets were extremely rare, but now it seems that is not so.

Cunning observations on life - I like it.

As for the apparent lack of life on habitable planets, I point to a few factors. Firstly, we have only yet discovered one such planet. While they are more common than some people had expected, they are definitely not cluttering the place up.

Secondly, there is the actual chance that life arises. Even with a planet potentially habitable, we don't have the faintest idea how likely it is that life will form there, and that this will develop into an advanced civilisation (c.f. my comments on the Drake Equation in previous threads).

Thirdly, there is still a wonderfully simple explanation - they're too far away. There are approximately 13500 stars within 100 light years of us. Narrowing to 50 ly to allow for a response, this reduces to only 1700 stars or so. From wikipedia, roughly 10% of stars are like the sun, and from here (http://www.spitzer.caltech.edu/Media/releases/ssc2008-05/release.shtml), we note that up to about 60% of sun-like stars could form rocky planets. Thus with a lot of rash assumptions, and completely ignoring binary systems, we might assume there are 100 star systems vaguely like ours within 50 light years. While we obviously have only one data point on the subject, I would submit that the chance that two such systems have independently developed civilisations capable of radio communication at the same time is incredibly small*. Thus we shouldn't expect to see any transmission from extraterrestrials, even if they exist**.

*Say, for the purpose of argument, that the chance an Earth-like planet forms life is 1%. This already cuts it down to about one - us. I have no idea where to even start with the time corrections, but an age difference of even a few million years - nothing on a galactic scale - would probably ensure that the other civilisation will never cross tracks with us.

**The same (very rough) numbers I've been arguing from should show why I believe this as well. Even given the same rash assumptions about distribution of rocky planets, we could still expect there to be about 12 billion rocky planets orbiting sun-like stars in the galaxy (presuming 200 million stars). Given even 0.1% chance of any life forming, and a further 0.1% chance of that life developing into technological civilisation, that still leaves 12000 technological civilisations or so in our galaxy.

Edit: I hope I've been clear with how rough many of these numbers are - we simply don't have the data to provide accurate figures for many of these. If you'd care to suggest better approximations, please do so. If you wish to enquire about how I computed any figures, or sources for figures, do ask.

tbh I've never subscribed to the theory most humans seem to have that we are so fascinating that if there were aliens out there they would have definitely have visited us by now. I think that if there are other lifeforms out there we are as interesting to them as, say, donkeys are to us. I'm not saying we are inferior, I just dont think we are an object of deep curiousity for them and so they dont feel the need to spend their existences trying to communicate with us.

I'm sorry, I don't agree. For this reason.

If we were to discover another intelligent alien species, it would be the most talked about scientific advancement in quite some time. We would be very interested. Our (hypothetical of course) 2nd, or 3rd or 4th alien discoveries would be just as talked about. Unless the aliens discover other alien species every 3rd Tuesday, we're still going to be very interested in us. They are not going to just say "Oh well, first sign of life outside of our planet, just ignore them." They will be interested.

And someone said they might be so advanced compared to us that we might be like Ancient Egyptians to us, so they'd ignore us. That's a completely unreasonable argument. If we came across and Ancient Egyptian - level society on another planet, we'd investigate it. Moral issues about "interfering" wouldn't come into play either because everyone would be just so damn curious about the whole thing. Possibly when there is some big beaurocratic multi-species galactic-wide government thing, there might be some sort of morality about contacting other species, but a species first finding life outside their own planet is not going to be so "moral" about it.

Also, I firmly believe that any species within a reasonable technological window of us would not be aggressive. Perhaps if they are some crazy religious alien species millenia ahead of us, who just blindly kill aliens all the time, then maybe, but this seems a little bit unlikely. Completely oppressive regimes rarely thrive. They might survive, but I can't see them advancing to space travel with amazing technology in this state.

The humans that will discover alien life will be scientists, people interested in life and stuff like that, so why can't we assume that the counter-part aliens wouldn't be the same. They are not going to specially build a warship to go around the galaxy hoping to find life so they can exterminate it.

Maybe we should try to communicate with each other. That would help the world a lot better.

Probably because the ones technologically advanced enough for interstellar travel are also advanced enough to destroy themselves.

I don't think it's fair to say that once a civilisation gets to a certain level it will destroy itself. It's pssible, but you can't call it a rule.

I think one analogy goes that interstellar travelling aliens would see us the same way a human zoologist sees a nest of ants.

I don't think it's fair to say that once a civilisation gets to a certain level it will destroy itself. It's pssible, but you can't call it a rule.

Misinterpretation.

What was said, which is undeniably true, is that technological advancement makes it easier for a species to accidentally destroy itself in some internal conflict. As a corollary, less technological civilisations will tend to live longer. As a further (and much more tenuous) corollary, intelligence is not a long term survival trait for a species.

That is true, but I also don't think that Earth (if we can take Earth as an example of a fairly regular civilisation with our level of technology) is going to destroy itself any day soon. Sure, there is the global warming issue, and the lack of resources issue, but they aren't going to get serious any day soon (not saying that we should forget about them until then either). What I'm saying is that it's extremely unlikely some political disagreement will lead to nuclear war and the destruction of the entire world. I don't think anyone is that retarded.

Harry Turtledove - The Road Not Taken



Judging by your avatar, I would think you'd be happy to see Chaos get here.

Boo, I thought this sounded really interesting and was considering illustrating it as a side-project, but it's out of print and quite difficult to get a hold of.

That is true, but I also don't think that Earth (if we can take Earth as an example of a fairly regular civilisation with our level of technology) is going to destroy itself any day soon. Sure, there is the global warming issue, and the lack of resources issue, but they aren't going to get serious any day soon (not saying that we should forget about them until then either). What I'm saying is that it's extremely unlikely some political disagreement will lead to nuclear war and the destruction of the entire world. I don't think anyone is that retarded.

I don't think anyone needs to be. Once nuclear weapons were produced, it becomes inevitable that they will become nearly as easily available as machineguns. It's simply a matter of time. And once that stage is reached, you don't need a major political disagreement. A minor skirmish can quite easily escalate. Biological weapons offer even more interesting possibilities, and are even easier to construct and deploy.

Again, I contrast humanity with dinosaurs. Dinosaurs were the dominant lifeform for many millions of years, and were finally wiped out by events completely beyond their control. Humans have only been around for a few hundred thousand, only had technology and civilisation for a few thousand, and we've already constructed enough weaponry to eliminate our entire civilisation in a few hours. Beyond that, we've already screwed up the environment enough to potentially destroy our civilisation in a few centuries, if not long before.

When you have an intelligent technological species, you have to hope that nobody, ever, will be silly enough to use superweapons to deal with a political issue. When you don't have such a species, you don't even have to worry about politics. I can tell you which one my money's on for long term survival.

Edit: If it's any comfort, most* people estimate that technologically advanced civilisations can survive in such a state for about 10000 years. Still, that's a blink of an astronomical eye in comparison to species which don't possess such limitations.

*Technically, the generally accepted value for the L term in the Drake equation is roughly 10000 years. It's basically applicable, but you may wish to read the wiki page or something for specific information.

Id wager its a combo of lack of Intelligent Life that not only managed to accomplish the task of becoming "Intelligent" but didnt kill itself in the process...

and the fact that there is no Faster-than-Light technology that we know of...

Thanks for that reply UvV. I'll look up the other thread too. I've got to go do stuff now unfortunately.

The only figure I find odd is the 1% chance of life arising on a rocky planet. Is it based on the narrowness of the "habitable zone" in our system and the probability of a planet being there which is large enough to hold atmosphere? Or is it an assertion that even given that, life might not arise at all for some reason ...

Thanks for that reply UvV. I'll look up the other thread too. I've got to go do stuff now unfortunately.

The only figure I find odd is the 1% chance of life arising on a rocky planet. Is it based on the narrowness of the "habitable zone" in our system and the probability of a planet being there which is large enough to hold atmosphere? Or is it an assertion that even given that, life might not arise at all for some reason ...

It's just a figure pulled out of thin air, because I don't think it's particularly likely that life will arise on a planet, even if said planet is a rocky planet orbiting a single sun-like star. Habitable zone, bad galactic neighbourhood, freak meteorites, generic bad luck, etc. Naturally, it's extremely disputable.

However, even if one argues that all Earth like planets will form life eventually, the widely differing ages of planets should still easily ensure that there are no other technological civilisations near us*. A fact backed up by the observation that we have not yet picked up any radio signals from a seemingly artificial source, despite some years of watching for them.

For the other recent threads, try UFO in Wichita! (http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showthread.php?t=583145), There are at least 361 intelligent alien civilisations... (http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showthread.php?t=582531), and Xenopolicy (http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showthread.php?t=582637). And for future reference, don't try and compose such posts in elinks...

*Note that I feel technological civilisations/intelligent species will tend to self destruct reasonable rapidly, compared to others.

Boo, I thought this sounded really interesting and was considering illustrating it as a side-project, but it's out of print and quite difficult to get a hold of.

If you're not opposed to a .doc file, you can have this copy.

The Road Not Taken.doc (http://www.filefactory.com/file/af07edd/n/The_Road_Not_Taken_doc)

It's entirely possible that life won't form on a planet even if it fits the habitable zone as wella s earth. A red supergiant, for example, is so big and burns so fast that it has a life expectancy of only a million years (or even less!) -- and, for reference, even the earliest estimates put the beginning of earth's life at a minimum of 300 million years after the planet formed!

And yes, IF the conditions for life on earth are needed, then there's a good chance a rocky planet will be too hot, too cold, too radioactive, too meteor-bombarded, or somethign else. Currently they've documented 348 planets (349 if you count Pluto), and (IIRC) only two of them (Earth and Gliese 581 d) are neither too hot nor too cold.

I was going to write a long and fact-filled/logical post about the whole issue,
when coming across something rather peculiar.

Note that I am not saying there is anything to it,
I just found it strange.

age of:
Universe: 13.7 billion years
Milky way: 10.1 billion years
Earth: 4.54 billion years

Life: 3.7 billion years
Technology: 10000 years
Civilization: 4500 years