NationStates Jolt Archive

I don't know how this one slipped past us, but Israel had elections nearly a week ago. Results are here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_elections_2009#Final.2C_unofficial_results).

Now, what I'd like to discuss is what kind of government could (or should) emerge. I personally support Kadima, and would like to see Tzipi Livni as Prime Minister. However, a center-left coalition is not viable at this point - the religious parties and Likud made huge gains, while Labor slipped to fourth place.

At the same time, I would question the viability of a Likud-led right-wing coalition. The Israeli religious parties often disagree, and after running a statistical analysis, I've concluded that for Likud to form a coalition on its own (without Labor or Kadima) it would need the support of Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, and at least one other religious party. Given that Yisrael Beiteinu supports a Palestinian state, and the religious parties all don't, this doesn't seem workable.

What might be workable is a government of national unity - Kadima, Likud, and Labor. This has the advantage of putting Israel's most experienced politicians, including two former PMs, in the ruling coalition. I personally would prefer to see Livni as PM (and she does have the advantage that Kadima has one more seat than Likud). Netanyahu and Ehud would take the Defense and Foreign ministries respectively.

I'd like to avoid turning this into another thread on the Palestinian conflict.

Technically a sorta Leftist/Centrist coalition could emerge if they took Shas. Shas only really cares about money, so this wouldn't be too difficult to arrange. It means more money for people who spend all day reading the same books over and over again, but Shas would find their way into a Likud-lead rightwing coalition anyway, so it wouldn't be much of a difference.

As it is, I'm really disappointed with the results. Also, since things are so close, I wouldn't be surprised if I found myself voting again in a year or two.

All of these politicians are part of the establishment, they've been around the block and they have no fresh ideas for any of Israel's problems. Especially not the big one.

Israel needs an influential, inspirational new leader who can overcome the political points-scoring to actually sort out the issue of Palestine (especially if the Palestinians get such a leader at the same time), steamroll the opposition from nationalist or religious nutcases and get the country on track to actually face the obvious questions that a country of its size, neighbourhood and its particularities with regards to religion and ethnicity should be answering in the 21st century.

So I'm sorry, but I don't support any of the options one bit.

Let me see if I can make a leftist-centrist-Shas coalition work:

Kadima + Labor + Shas + Meretz = 28 + 13 + 11 + 3 = 45 < 61.

Nope.

Really, for a coalition to pass 60 AND be politically viable, we're going to need Kadima and Likud in there.

In Happy Happy Land you could have

Kadima + Labor + Shas + Meretz + Hadash + Balad (+ Ta'al) = 28+13+11+3+4+3(+4) = 62(+4) > 61

Edit: Ah, I see you wrote politically viable. That does put a damper on things.

In Happy Happy Land you could have

I know, right?

Thinking about that has made my view of coalition politics sink significantly.

I think that Tzipi Livni should lead the opposition. It would be better for her than being Netanyahu's junior partner in what would basically be a right wing coalition.

Tzipi took Labor's vote because the Israeli Labor Party, like so many social-democratic Labor Parties abandoned its core constituency and became a bunch of pragmatists. They stopped having a socialist philosophy. What is a Labor Party withoutSocialism? Just another party that makes deals to stay in power.

And at least Tzipi is good looking.....

I think that Tzipi Livni should lead the opposition. It would be better for her than being Netanyahu's junior partner in what would basically be a right wing coalition.

Tzipi took Labor's vote because the Israeli Labor Party, like so many social-democratic Labor Parties abandoned its core constituency and became a bunch of pragmatists. They stopped having a socialist philosophy. What is a Labor Party withoutSocialism? Just another party that makes deals to stay in power.

And at least Tzipi is good looking.....

I don't know what planet you live on, but Livni is not the prettiest hunk of politician on the planet. I wouldn't split a malt with that motherfucker.

On topic: Any way Livni and the more leftists can get power works for me. I just don't see it happening. I see a coalition of Netanyahu and the rest of the right wingers.

I think that Tzipi Livni should lead the opposition. It would be better for her than being Netanyahu's junior partner in what would basically be a right wing coalition.

Tzipi took Labor's vote because the Israeli Labor Party, like so many social-democratic Labor Parties abandoned its core constituency and became a bunch of pragmatists. They stopped having a socialist philosophy. What is a Labor Party withoutSocialism? Just another party that makes deals to stay in power.

And at least Tzipi is good looking.....

As I've pointed out, Livni could still retain power, given that Kadima DID get the most votes of any one party. And if a unity government is formed, she would be the most logical candidate for Prime Minister.

Besides, I can't figure out a politically viable majority coalition that does NOT include Kadima. The only possibility is Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, and any other religious party. The thing is, I can't see UTJ, National Union, or Jewish Home working with YB (based on a reading of their platforms). I do have one coalition without Likud - Kadima, Labor, YB, and Shas (iffy, but workable).

The best option, in my opinion, is the unity government.

On topic: Any way Livni and the more leftists can get power works for me. I just don't see it happening. I see a coalition of Netanyahu and the rest of the right wingers.

Rather unfortunately, that would be my guess too. That new lot are a right shower of shites too.

As I've pointed out, Livni could still retain power, given that Kadima DID get the most votes of any one party. And if a unity government is formed, she would be the most logical candidate for Prime Minister.

Besides, I can't figure out a politically viable majority coalition that does NOT include Kadima. The only possibility is Likud, Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, and any other religious party. The thing is, I can't see UTJ, National Union, or Jewish Home working with YB (based on a reading of their platforms). I do have one coalition without Likud - Kadima, Labor, YB, and Shas (iffy, but workable).

The best option, in my opinion, is the unity government.

I think that Israel's chances of getting a unity governmnet that can actually do anything are pretty remote. In Australia we have a lower house that is bassically a two-horse race and an upper house that resembles the Knesset (proportional representation). It seems to be a lot more stable than Israel or Italy's governments which have a succession of unstable coalitions.
Also governments of "national unity" need something to be united about. (Like a war). They are extremely fragile in peacetime usually.

My psychisatrist was originally from Israel, so he's likely following it more than most of NSG. He feels that Livni will not be able to form a majority, so (according to Israeli law) after an amount of time it'll be Netanyahu's chance to try and form one... which, unfortunately, he will. Blargo.

...I have a strange urge to stick an exploding head smiley here...

I think that Israel's chances of getting a unity governmnet that can actually do anything are pretty remote. In Australia we have a lower house that is bassically a two-horse race and an upper house that resembles the Knesset (proportional representation). It seems to be a lot more stable than Israel or Italy's governments which have a succession of unstable coalitions.
Also governments of "national unity" need something to be united about. (Like a war). They are extremely fragile in peacetime usually.
In Israel, it's PR-List, which is pretty shit IMO. What is it in Australia? PR- List, or PR-STV?

Eugh. Worst election results evar.

I bet if she spelled her first name 'Zippy', she would've won. *nod*

Eugh. Worst election results evar.

Depends on whether or not you cream in your pants at the sight of brown people being killed.

I bet if she spelled her first name 'Zippy', she would've won. *nod*
http://www.btinternet.com/~acbarrett/nzip.jpg

I trust that :D

Jeffrey Goldberg is an entertaining writer:
A Stunning Israeli Election

10 Feb 2009 09:56 pm

As I noted, I'm pretty far from Israel (geographically, that is), but my cell phone works in the western desert, and I've been talking to friends in Tel Aviv. A number of quick observations:

1. The stunner, for me at least: The Labor Party is dead. More than that, the peace camp is dead, or comatose, at least. According to exit poll numbers I heard, Haifa and Tel Aviv went for Livni (who is no leftist, except in comparison to Netanyahu and Lieberman); the south went for the hard right. The rockets voted, in other words.

2. Washington should prepare itself for the possibility of Avigdor Lieberman as Israel's foreign minister. This is almost-pure speculation on my part, but seems not unlikely. Netanyahu, assuming he can form a government, won't give the defense portfolio to Lieberman's party -- which leaves the foreign ministry. This isn't as bad as it sounds, since Israel doesn't have a foreign policy, just a defense policy. It's also not as bad as it sounds because Lieberman is preoccupied with Israel's Arab citizens, and not the Palestinians of Gaza and the West Bank. In fact, he seeks territorial compromise in order to rid Israel of responsiblity for these Arabs. The man does not like Arabs, in case you haven't heard. His rise brings up an obvious question for Democrats: Which Lieberman do they like less?

3. The Arab world doesn't have enough democracy; Israel has too much. Israel's is an insane system, which gives every lunatic fringe party disproportionate say in the running of the country, and therefore encourages radicalism. Lieberman is incorrigible, but if he had to exist within the framework of a center-right party, he'd be marginally less offensive.

4. Did I mention that the Labor Party, which built the Jewish state, is dead? Its only hope for relevancy is a merger with Kadima. This would have the added benefit of being good for Israel, and for people who desire negotiations with the Palestinians. Which is why it probably won't happen.