NationStates Jolt Archive

Interesting. As suspected this round is following the 81 recession.

Take a look at the link where some guy did a chart all the way back to WWII.

http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2009/02/09/comparing-this-recession-to-the-last-five/

http://www.williampolley.com/blog/archives/2009/02/employment-loss.html

Of course the difference between now and '81 is back then the government was trying to force liquidation and spike unemployment and it is doing the opposite now.

So you can extrapolate where this ends.

Im having trouble reading the second Graph, the colors are a couple of shades too close...

Of course the difference between now and '81 is back then the government was trying to force liquidation and spike unemployment and it is doing the opposite now.

So you can extrapolate where this ends.

Where?

Im having trouble reading the second Graph, the colors are a couple of shades too close...

I'd have to agree. The second one is just horribly done.

Im having trouble reading the second Graph, the colors are a couple of shades too close...

Yea it's pretty bad. I had to put effort into it.....

Interesting. As suspected this round is following the 81 recession.


1981 was a tiny hiccup compared to today's mess. This round is following the 1929 depression.

Take a look at private debt leverage over time: http://yellowroad.wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/files/2008/06/img0009_2097970562.PNG

The current deleveraging process is, and will continue to be, similar to the 1929 depression, resulting in comparable mass unemployment.

It's hard to say it's following '81, we'll know if it did after the fact.

To me it looks more like the '48, a straight drop with no bumps. If you couple it with the '01 drop, look at the time for recovery, I suspect this recession is a continuation of '01 with a housing bubble spike in the middle.

I'd love to see a Depression chart.

Where?


Brezhnev-style economic zombification and collapse.

Didn't the Depression take a sharp turn downward though? I always though this depression was in the works when the Dot Com bubble burst, it's just the Housing Bubble made it worse.

You know what, after reading these posts...

I have a suggestion...Perhaps we should stop basing our Economy on Bubbles, it seems a flimsy structuring material anyway...

What might save everything is that there's actually more options these days, I suspect there's a huge amount of arbitrage value between shop prices and what you can get online.

Whether it's Ebay trading or whatever, more and more people should be able to start their own business for very little capital, with the added tax benefits of making your home a work place.

We had the idea of simply printing T-shirts with the slogan - I may not be good looking but I still have a job - print them up for $2, create a Facebook group, sell them for $10, the distribution wouldn't be too much, tidy profit.

Another funny idea was based off the fact that the recycling industry has collapsed, the system was that the West shipped garbage to China who recycled it into packaging to be shipped back off to the West - but China isn't buying anymore because they're not exporting.

So, buy that cheap cardboard up, cheap cardboard homes for the homeless, flat-pack, snap together covered beds, sell them to the government for the oncoming flood of homeless people.

People can either get busy working or get busy moaning.

Didn't the Depression take a sharp turn downward though? I always though this depression was in the works when the Dot Com bubble burst, it's just the Housing Bubble made it worse.

According to the US Census Dept data, unemployment:

3.14% in 1929
8.67% in 1930
15.82% in 1931
23.52% in 1932

(Monthly data would be much more informative)

The "turn" was "sharp" but no "sharper" than seen in other recessions, just more protracted, due to the astonishing amount of deleveraging that had to be done.

Didn't the Depression take a sharp turn downward though? I always though this depression was in the works when the Dot Com bubble burst, it's just the Housing Bubble made it worse.

Indeed. Especially when the dust bowl hit. Something like 1/2 million people lost their homes as it did in a great deal of agriculture in those days.

It's funny but FDR bashers forget to that his CCC program corrected the causes of the dust bowl.

What might save everything is that there's actually more options these days, I suspect there's a huge amount of arbitrage value between shop prices and what you can get online.

Whether it's Ebay trading or whatever, more and more people should be able to start their own business for very little capital, with the added tax benefits of making your home a work place.

We had the idea of simply printing T-shirts with the slogan - I may not be good looking but I still have a job - print them up for $2, create a Facebook group, sell them for $10, the distribution wouldn't be too much, tidy profit.

Another funny idea was based off the fact that the recycling industry has collapsed, the system was that the West shipped garbage to China who recycled it into packaging to be shipped back off to the West - but China isn't buying anymore because they're not exporting.

So, buy that cheap cardboard up, cheap cardboard homes for the homeless, flat-pack, snap together covered beds, sell them to the government for the oncoming flood of homeless people.

People can either get busy working or get busy moaning.

AND TWINS!!!!
http://www.sheylahershey.net/galleries.php

IDk, Im kinda bored, lol

What might save everything is that there's actually more options these days, I suspect there's a huge amount of arbitrage value between shop prices and what you can get online.

Whether it's Ebay trading or whatever, more and more people should be able to start their own business for very little capital, with the added tax benefits of making your home a work place.

We had the idea of simply printing T-shirts with the slogan - I may not be good looking but I still have a job - print them up for $2, create a Facebook group, sell them for $10, the distribution wouldn't be too much, tidy profit.

Another funny idea was based off the fact that the recycling industry has collapsed, the system was that the West shipped garbage to China who recycled it into packaging to be shipped back off to the West - but China isn't buying anymore because they're not exporting.

So, buy that cheap cardboard up, cheap cardboard homes for the homeless, flat-pack, snap together covered beds, sell them to the government for the oncoming flood of homeless people.

People can either get busy working or get busy moaning.

Yea, I have thought about starting a distribution center for small/home businesses, but I don't know how successful that'd be.

AND TWINS!!!!
http://www.sheylahershey.net/galleries.php

IDk, Im kinda bored, lol

Doesn't this belong in the KKK thread?

Doesn't this belong in the KKK thread?

no, lol, I was just adding something irrelevant to his suggestion from the KKK thread...

Like I said, i was kinda bored...

AND TWINS!!!!
http://www.sheylahershey.net/galleries.php

IDk, Im kinda bored, lol

BAD! *forces you to watch Napoleon Dynamite*

What might save everything is that there's actually more options these days, I suspect there's a huge amount of arbitrage value between shop prices and what you can get online.

Whether it's Ebay trading or whatever, more and more people should be able to start their own business for very little capital, with the added tax benefits of making your home a work place.

We had the idea of simply printing T-shirts with the slogan - I may not be good looking but I still have a job - print them up for $2, create a Facebook group, sell them for $10, the distribution wouldn't be too much, tidy profit.

Another funny idea was based off the fact that the recycling industry has collapsed, the system was that the West shipped garbage to China who recycled it into packaging to be shipped back off to the West - but China isn't buying anymore because they're not exporting.

So, buy that cheap cardboard up, cheap cardboard homes for the homeless, flat-pack, snap together covered beds, sell them to the government for the oncoming flood of homeless people.

People can either get busy working or get busy moaning.

Also, anyone who owns a bit of land even if it's just a backyard, could consider raising a substantial amount of their own food as a cost saving measure.

Beautiful. Maybe 2 years from now my degree won't be entirely down the drain.

Beautiful. Maybe 2 years from now my degree won't be entirely down the drain.

you degree in 2 years might just get you hiring preferences at McDonald's.

you degree in 2 years might just get you hiring preferences at McDonald's.

Back in the 80's, the number-one employer of petroleum geologists in Texas was Safeway. To think they promised us accountants job security when we were in our freshman seminar...2006 was a different time, before the housing bubble burst and the global economy went to hell.

Back in the 80's, the number-one employer of petroleum geologists in Texas was Safeway. To think they promised us accountants job security when we were in our freshman seminar...2006 was a different time, before the housing bubble burst and the global economy went to hell.

I am a history major how the fuck do you think i feel ??

Judging by those graphs I would say we are looking at 24 to 28 months. Which is what some people are saying.

I am a history major how the fuck do you think i feel ??

^^ This.

You know what, after reading these posts...

I have a suggestion...Perhaps we should stop basing our Economy on Bubbles, it seems a flimsy structuring material anyway...

The next bubble is government bonds (US and UK).

When that implodes, it will be Mad Max/Road Warrior time...

Back in the 80's, the number-one employer of petroleum geologists in Texas was Safeway. To think they promised us accountants job security when we were in our freshman seminar...2006 was a different time, before the housing bubble burst and the global economy went to hell.

so what your saying is the number crunching resources of the accounting world have run dry and been set up in Saudi Arabia?

here's the last bubble coming up http://www.cnbc.com/id/29115526/

When it pops, we'll have insane levels of inflation...

Investors will have to short government bonds at some point despite their current attraction, as the amount of debt issued is "staggering" and inflation risks are down the road, Jim Rogers, CEO of Jim Rogers Holdings, told CNBC Tuesday.

The low rates policy promoted by central banks is likely to pop a fresh bubble in government bonds sometime in the future, Rogers said.

"I was short long-term government bonds in the US, I had to cover a little loss because the head of the central bank said he was going to buy US long-term bonds, and he's got more money than I do," he told "Squawk Box Europe."

"I plan to sell short US government long bonds sometime in the foreseeable future… I don't know when, whether it's this quarter or this year," Rogers said.

If long-term interest rates continue to go down, then "you've got to sell short government bonds, because the numbers are just staggering" when it comes to the amount of debt issued by the US and the UK, he explained.

"Government bonds may be the last bubble that is developing. I'm not short government bonds right now," Rogers said.

The rise in the US dollar was likely caused by short-sellers covering their bets but the trend was unlikely to last long-term, he said.

"There are huge short positions in the dollar, everybody is trying to cover. I'm not selling my yen yet, but it's an artificial rally too."

"I sold all of my sterling, I wouldn't buy sterling for the next 5 to10 years. The same is happening to the US economy, I'm not picking on the UK," Rogers added.

He reiterated his view that, with North Sea oil reserves dwindling and the City of London shrinking because of the financial crisis, the UK had no big industries to fall back upon. The euro and other currencies from the Continent are likely to fare slightly better than sterling, but they were not a 'buy' in his view, Rogers said.

"I'm not buying any of these currencies at the moment. I still own the euro, I don't own sterling anymore, I still own the Swiss franc. Europe at least is not a huge debtor, like the UK is," he said.

Commodities continue to be the safest bet as fundamentals were good because when the economic downturn is over, the world will need raw materials, he said.

"The fundamentals of commodities are improving through all of this," Rogers said. "You're not going to see a mine of any kind opening in 10 to15 years."

Agricultural commodities, where prices fell a lot, oil and gold may also be good for investors, according to Rogers.

"I'm buying gold just because I'm periodically buying gold, because I do expect it to be much higher over the next decade," Rogers said, adding that history has never seen all major central banks printing money "as fast as they can" at the same time.

"I know we're going to have serious inflation down the road," Rogers said.

The next bubble is government bonds (US and UK).

When that implodes, it will be Mad Max/Road Warrior time...

That bubble, like all bubbles throughout history, won't burst until even the last and most stubborn bubble-callers get lulled into thinking that the particular asset is a sound investment.

here's the last bubble coming up http://www.cnbc.com/id/29115526/

When it pops, we'll have insane levels of inflation...

That bubble will pop when Jim Rogers himself gets convinced the bubble won't pop.

Here's the part I like:

The new financial rescue plan may not work and could even make things worse because it plunges the US further into debt and it is designed by the same people who failed to forecast the crisis and take measures, legendary investor Jim Rogers told CNBC Tuesday.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner will unveil a long-awaited package of measures to help the financial sector at 11 am New York time.

But Rogers said Geithner, who was president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, "has been dead wrong about everything for 15 years in a row," and so was President Barack Obama's economic advisor Lawrence Summers, who acted as Treasury Secretary at the turn of the century.

"It is mind-boggling to me," Rogers told "Squawk Box Europe."

"If I were on your show 15 weeks in a row and was wrong, you'd probably never invite me back. These guys have been wrong year after year after year consistently and here they are making the same mistakes again. This is not going to solve the problem, it's going to make it worse."

Yeah, "top economists" who have been wrong 15 years in a row are fashioning the stimulus and the bailout...

I feel better already...

The next bubble is government bonds (US and UK).

When that implodes, it will be Mad Max/Road Warrior time...

Mad Max situation was brought on by the end of oil, the wars then fought over it, and then the collapse of government. Not a prediction of a government bonds "bubble."

Get a grip.

Mad Max situation was brought on by the end of oil, the wars then fought over it, and then the collapse of government. Not a prediction of a government bonds "bubble."

Get a grip.

Jeez, you take everything waaay too literally don't you?

Mad Max is just a metaphor for WTSHTF, whether it's related to oil or not. Real life doesn't have to precisely mimic a Mel Gibson movie. Collapse of the long bond market could very well lead to war and government collapse.

Jeez, you take everything literally don't you?

Mad Max is just a metaphor for WTSHTF, whether it's related to oil or not. Real life doesn't have to precisely mimic a Mel Gibson movie. Collapse of the long bond market could very well lead to war and government collapse.

Government collapse, for sure. Long term chaos, probably. Mass starvation, rioting, civil unrest, very probably.

Government collapse, for sure. Long term chaos, probably. Mass starvation, rioting, civil unrest, very probably.

Chaos, shortages and civil unrest, for sure. And in a worst case scenario, government morphs into an all-out fascist police state rather than collapse.

Jeez, you take everything waaay too literally don't you?

Mad Max is just a metaphor for WTSHTF

Not when DK uses it. He's already got his methane powered car, leather outfit, guns and mask.

, whether it's related to oil or not. Real life doesn't have to precisely mimic a Mel Gibson movie.

Perhaps you and he would both benefit from not using Mel Gibson movies as the basis for your trolling then.

Collapse of the long bond market could very well lead to war and government collapse.

How restrained of you to suggest that it is not 100% fact. Unfortunately DK is a psychic.

Government collapse, for sure.

Haha.

Long term chaos, probably. Mass starvation, rioting, civil unrest, very probably.

Haha.

Sorry, is there anyone who isn't a troll who would like to comment?

Sorry, is there anyone who isn't a troll who would like to comment?

Show me where I'm trolling in this thread. In fact, let's ask a mod.

Not when DK uses it. He's already got his methane powered car, leather outfit, guns and mask.



Perhaps you and he would both benefit from not using Mel Gibson movies as the basis for your trolling then.

Metaphors are used for the benefit of intelligent people who don't fixate on literal meanings. Obviously you're not one of these people, and things like metaphor and simile fly over your head.

How restrained of you to suggest that it is not 100% fact. Unfortunately DK is a psychic.

Oh I'm fully accurate in my assertions. It's not 100% certain that government would collapse in hyperinflation. The other alternative is rise of a police state a la Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe.


Sorry, is there anyone who isn't a troll who would like to comment?

Take your grandstanding to the mod forum, please.

Not when DK uses it. He's already got his methane powered car, leather outfit, guns and mask.


To be fair, I have those too. Well, apart from the methane powered car.

See government bonds really aren't in a bubble though. Not if you understand what a bubble is. They don't offer that sort of opportunity.

I'm not saying they are not overpriced, because they most likely are given the risk of default, the gargantuan supply in the pipe, the probably failure of indirect bids and the risk of some kind of technical default.

But it's not really a bubble. Not like basic materials was last year, or property (which still has a long way to go), or some other shit.

I've a feeling Mr. Rogers is about to get his jacobs cut off again. Soros was obviously the smart one in that team.

Metaphors are used for the benefit of intelligent people who don't fixate on literal meanings. Obviously you're not one of these people, and things like metaphor and simile fly over your head.

Yeah that's it - I'm stupid and have no understanding of the concept of metaphor or simile. 'You just hate metaphors, and are dumb!'

:rolleyes:

Or maybe it was a patently absurd and flawed analogy, made by a patently absurd troll, and your ad hominem defense of same is to be utterly dismissed.



Take your grandstanding to the mod forum, please.

Perhaps I should. That would seem to be something an intelligent person would do when faced with flaming such as yours, right?

See government bonds really aren't in a bubble though. Not if you understand what a bubble is. They don't offer that sort of opportunity.

I'm not saying they are not overpriced, because they most likely are given the risk of default, the gargantuan supply in the pipe, the probably failure of indirect bids and the risk of some kind of technical default.

But it's not really a bubble. Not like basic materials was last year, or property (which still has a long way to go), or some other shit.

I've a feeling Mr. Rogers is about to get his jacobs cut off again. Soros was obviously the smart one in that team.
True, it would be reckless to attempt to time any hyperinflation event...

Yeah that's it - I'm stupid and have no understanding of the concept of metaphor or simile. 'You just hate metaphors, and are dumb!'

:rolleyes:

Or maybe it was a patently absurd and flawed analogy, made by a patently absurd troll, and your ad hominem defense of same is to be utterly dismissed.

Jeez, it's metaphorical. Not to be taken literally. Mad Max is a widely understood analogy for societal chaos. Get out from under your rock and learn some analogies already. They make the language more interesting.

Ok, don't even tell me what you think other metaphorical expressions like "bash the bishop" literally mean...

Perhaps I should. That would seem to be something an intelligent person would do when faced with flaming such as yours, right?

It wouldn't be intelligent at all. The mods would think you're wasting their time.

True, it would be reckless to attempt to time any hyperinflation event...

Well...

A collapse in government bonds could be deflationary depending on how it played out. Hyper-inflation isn't really on the cards unless the Ben Plan is carried to extremes. It's possible, but unlikely.

And it's not so much timing, but rather what's the point? If you are convinced that hyper inflation is the short/near term outcome - which it isn't, it's just a possibility depending on how things pan out - why bother with shorting US treasuries, it won't do you any good.

Same thing with relentless commodity calls. I mean, yeah, you know, the prices will recover eventually. But it's not something I'd worry about in the near term what with everyone on the planet losing their jobs.

The global deflation game has a while to run yet. And bailouts aside, there is still plenty of debt that has to be defaulted before inflation becomes a concern.

Jeez, it's metaphorical. Not to be taken literally. Mad Max is a widely understood analogy for societal chaos.

Yeah yeah. Broken analogy, therefore I'm "taking it literally" by demonstrating how absurd it is, especially in this context.

Get out from under your rock and learn some analogies already. They make the language more interesting.

Just because I think an analogy is stupid, flawed, and absurd, does not mean I don't know what an analogy is. Nor does it mean I'm stupid.

Concede this, or just accept that you don't know what you're talking about.

It wouldn't be intelligent at all. The mods would think you're wasting their time.

Quite ironic given who is reporting what in moderation at the moment.

Well...

A collapse in government bonds could be deflationary depending on how it played out. Hyper-inflation isn't really on the cards unless the Ben Plan is carried to extremes. It's possible, but unlikely.

And it's not so much timing, but rather what's the point? If you are convinced that hyper inflation is the short/near term outcome - which it isn't, it's just a possibility depending on how things pan out - why bother with shorting US treasuries, it won't do you any good.

Same thing with relentless commodity calls. I mean, yeah, you know, the prices will recover eventually. But it's not something I'd worry about in the near term what with everyone on the planet losing their jobs.

The global deflation game has a while to run yet. And bailouts aside, there is still plenty of debt that has to be defaulted before inflation becomes a concern.
Ah I fully agree. We may just be at the very beginning of a long, multi-year, Japan-style bull run in US treasuries.

Yeah yeah. Broken analogy, therefore I'm "taking it literally" by demonstrating how absurd it is, especially in this context.

Just because I think an analogy is stupid, flawed, and absurd, does not mean I don't know what an analogy is. Nor does it mean I'm stupid.

Concede this, or just accept that you don't know what you're talking about.

Mad Max is not a "stupid, flawed, and absurd" analogy for societal collapse. It's a widely known and used analogy because it conveys and illustrates its meaning quite well.

Perhaps in some alternate English language world you inhabit, people don't use the words Mad Max. Please get out of that alternate universe and come to the real world.

Quite ironic given who is reporting what in moderation at the moment.
I don't know what you're talking about. I certainly am not reporting anyone.

Mad Max is not a "stupid, flawed, and absurd" analogy for societal collapse. It's a widely known and used analogy because it conveys and illustrates its meaning quite very well.

It's an absurd analogy to use in this context, for a number of reasons, and my disagreement with it still doesn't mean I'm lacking in intelligence or unaware of the concept of analogy.

Suck it up and deal with it.

Perhaps in some alternate English language world you inhabit, people don't use the words Mad Max. Please get out of that alternate universe and come to the real world.

Oh, people do use the words and analogy of Mad Max. And when they do in situations like this, I will call them on their absurdity.

Suck it up. Deal with it.

Oh, people do use the words and analogy of Mad Max. And when they do in situations like this, I will call them on their absurdity.


You don't think that there is a chance of societal collapse though? I mean, take the great depression. A lot of places did get a bit Mad Max, martial law had to be declared in Iowa.

And so, if you think the endgame for this is going to be worse - which is a legitimate position to take, though I disagree with it - it's not an unreasonable analogy. Hyperbole, but not that bad.

It's an absurd analogy to use in this context, for a number of reasons, and my disagreement with it still doesn't mean I'm lacking in intelligence or unaware of the concept of analogy.

Suck it up and deal with it.



Oh, people do use the words and analogy of Mad Max. And when they do in situations like this, I will call them on their absurdity.

Suck it up. Deal with it.
Mad Max was used in the context of a conversation on societal collapse. That's the perfect use of the Mad Max analogy! Go take an English class, maybe that will help you out.

You don't think that there is a chance of societal collapse though? I mean, take the great depression. A lot of places did get a bit Mad Max, martial law had to be declared in Iowa.

Martial law declaration doesn't mean "ZOMG MAD MAX."

Yes, there is always a chance of societal collapse. No, that doesn't make any more credible the 'sky is falling' crowd.

There have been people, I won't name names, who have essentially been crying "the US is ending! run for the hills!" ever since Obama was elected, and mostly on that basis alone.

And so, if you think the endgame for this is going to be worse - which is a legitimate position to take, though I disagree with it - it's not an unreasonable analogy. Hyperbole, but not that bad.

I guess it's reasonable if you want to look silly with a "for sure" Nostradamus prediction, and be dismissed as a result. For most of us however there are more meaningful things to say.

Mad Max was used in the context of a conversation on societal collapse. That's the perfect use of the Mad Max analogy! Go take an English class, maybe that will help you out.

Woh woh woh . . .who is suggesting that total societal collapse is occurring?????

TROSTIA, HOTWIFE - ignore each other. Use the ignore button. It's quite obvious that for you two, it is the easiest and best solution.

Woh woh woh . . .who is suggesting that total societal collapse is occurring?????

Government bonds (long term) are on the verge of collapse.

This means that when people start short selling them, all of this "stimulus" and "bailout" will come to a screeching halt, because there isn't anyone in his right mind who will help finance it.

The governments in question (UK and US) will be worthless on paper.

Collapse of the two governments would not be far behind.

TROSTIA, HOTWIFE - ignore each other. Use the ignore button. It's quite obvious that for you two, it is the easiest and best solution.

you might have to do that for them.

you might have to do that for them.

Unfortunately, I can't. However, since I have made that my suggestion in moderation (and posed it here so it's obvious), I will give them time to either follow it, be civil or incur whatever consequences may follow based on whatever choice each shall make.

Unfortunately, I can't. However, since I have made that my suggestion in moderation (and posed it here so it's obvious), I will give them time to either follow it, be civil or incur whatever consequences may follow based on whatever choice each shall make.

I think I've been remarkably civil in this thread.

TROSTIA, HOTWIFE - ignore each other. Use the ignore button. It's quite obvious that for you two, it is the easiest and best solution.

lol hey Kryo :)

Government bonds (long term) are on the verge of collapse.
This "verge" could conceivably last many decades...

This means that when people start short selling them, all of this "stimulus" and "bailout" will come to a screeching halt, because there isn't anyone in his right mind who will help finance it.

...so people will get wiped out if they attempt to short sell treasury bonds. (As people already have been wiped out doing so)

The economy may come to a screeching halt, but don't bet that the stimulus and bailouts will come to a screeching halt for a long, long time to come.

Government bonds (long term) are on the verge of collapse.

This means that when people start short selling them, all of this "stimulus" and "bailout" will come to a screeching halt, because there isn't anyone in his right mind who will help finance it.

The governments in question (UK and US) will be worthless on paper.

Collapse of the two governments would not be far behind.

Right if your wrong am I allowed to bring up this post in about five months time and laugh at you? (if your right i'm thinking I'm gonna be more worried about the mob in the streets than I will be about NSG.)

I think I've been remarkably civil in this thread.

In general though, it would be good in the long run if you want to preserve that level of civility.