NationStates Jolt Archive

In GDP nominal that is. It's already the 2nd biggest economy in PPP. I think by mid century, it's gonna be the #1 superpower, US being 2nd. What do you think?


China economy grew to world's 3rd largest in 2007

By JOE McDONALD
The Associated Press
Wednesday, January 14, 2009; 2:33 PM

BEIJING -- China's economy grew to the world's third-largest in 2007, new data showed Wednesday, another milestone in the country's stunning ascent in the global pecking order that puts it behind only Japan and the United States.

China has grown tenfold in the past 30 years, and the revised data leapfrogged it ahead of Germany. But overtaking the United States is another matter.

"I think it will take only three to four years for China to overtake Japan as the second-largest economy in the world," said Merrill Lynch economist Ting Lu. Catching up with the United States could take decades, he added.

The status is symbolic _ China's 1.3 billion people are, on average, among the world's poorest. But it reflects the country's explosive growth as it transformed from a long-isolated nation to the world's factory.

The government revised its estimate of 2007 growth from an already high 11.9 percent to 13 percent, the fastest rate since 1994. The national statistics bureau did not explain the factors behind the revision.

The new estimate raised gross domestic product to 25.7 trillion yuan, or $3.5 trillion at 2007 exchange rates, the statistics bureau said. That would be ahead of Germany's 2007 GDP of 2.4 trillion euros, or $3.3 trillion at an exchange rate produced by averaging rates on the 15th of each month during that year.

The revision comes as China's export-driven economy struggles to reverse a slump caused by global turmoil and prevent already simmering social unrest over lost export-related jobs.

The government is launching a $586 billion stimulus package and is promising to help struggling exporters. China's exports fell at their fastest rate in a decade last month. On Wednesday, the Cabinet cut fuel prices and a tax on auto sales.

The change in economic ranking won't help China out of its slump, said Moody's Economy.com analyst Sherman Chan.

"The only effect is perhaps negative, as a stronger 2007 would make the 2008 slowdown more upsetting," Chan said in a report.

The United States is the world's biggest economy at $13.8 trillion in 2007, followed by Japan at $4.4 trillion.

Germany's 85 million people were still far ahead of China in GDP per person in 2007 at $38,800.

China's per capita GDP was $2,800 in 2007, but the country has wide disparities of wealth and poverty, and many live on far less than that. Chinese officials say more than 100 other countries have a higher income per person.

Then-supreme leader Deng Xiaoping set China on the road from communist central planning to a market-style economy in 1979. That year's GDP was just $300 billion _ one-tenth of the 2007 level _ according to the International Monetary Fund.

Over three decades, hundreds of millions of people have lifted themselves out of poverty and major cities have been transformed into forests of skyscrapers and modern apartment blocks, with streets jammed with private cars.

Independent economists estimate China's economy grew by another 9 percent in 2008 despite the global downturn. Figures for 2008 are expected to be released this month.

But economists have slashed 2009 forecasts to as low as 6 percent. That would be the highest for any major economy but is worrisome for communist leaders who need to satisfy a public that expects steadily rising incomes and is already restive over thousands of recent manufacturing layoffs.

Lu said it will be decades before China can match U.S. output, if it ever can.

"Even if growth in the U.S. is zero, China still would have to double and double again to overtake the U.S.," he said. "It would be more than 20 years, and that is so far out, it is very hard to forecast what will happen."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/01/14/AR2009011400576_2.html

Yay! Moo Goo Gai Pan for everyone! :D

China's per capita GDP was $2,800 in 2007, but the country has wide disparities of wealth and poverty, and many live on far less than that.

Yay Communism! Moo Goo Gai Pan for some! The rest get a breath mint. :D

Wait, the US has a greater GDP then the next three highest countries combined? Possibly higher than the next four? ($2.4 trillion remaining when subtracting japan, china, and germany)

Wait, the US has a greater GDP then the next three highest countries combined? Possibly higher than the next four? ($2.4 trillion remaining when subtracting japan, china, and germany)

Yep. We have all the Moo Goo Gai Pan! *nod*

Yay! Moo Goo Gai Pan for everyone! :D



Yay Communism! Moo Goo Gai Pan for some! The rest get a breath mint. :D

It's better than India, worse than Taiwan.

Wait, the US has a greater GDP then the next three highest countries combined? Possibly higher than the next four? ($2.4 trillion remaining when subtracting japan, china, and germany)

In GDP nominal. But if u include EU as a single entity, US is the #2 economy.

I'm sorry I never heard of this "china" is it one of those little trading outposts the EU tries to act scared of?

edit: damn you Germania not letting me be as snooty

The government revised its estimate of 2007 growth from an already high 11.9 percent to 13 percent, the fastest rate since 1994. The national statistics bureau did not explain the factors behind the revision.

lies!

In GDP nominal that is. It's already the 2nd biggest economy in PPP. I think by mid century, it's gonna be the #1 superpower, US being 2nd. What do you think?

IIRC, it would take over a hundred years at their present growth rate to over take the US, if we assume the US grows at 3%, what are you basing your mid century change-up on? I would add that even the 100 yr. case is optimistic for the Chinese economy, as developed countries grow much slower than developing ones.

The title of the biggest economy is as important as that of the heaviest man.

What matters is: a) GDP per capita, b) Nation's discretionary budget.

In GDP nominal. But if u include EU as a single entity, US is the #2 economy.

If your counting the EU as one entity then we count NAFTA as one entity and we are right back where we started.

In GDP nominal that is. It's already the 2nd biggest economy in PPP.


Who's the biggest in PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP PPPPP then?

If your counting the EU as one entity then we count NAFTA as one entity and we are right back where we started.

The EU is a fair bit more integrated politically than NAFTA. They're hardly comparable associations.

The title of the biggest economy is as important as that of the heaviest man.

what if said man is made of solid gold and fed by devouring children's knee caps!

or rather the total sum of a nations produce is rather important in terms of measuring its power no?

If your counting the EU as one entity then we count NAFTA as one entity and we are right back where we started.

are you sure you want to be associated with Mexico and Canada?

Who's the biggest in PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP PPPPP then?

you said pee pee

The EU is a fair bit more integrated politically than NAFTA. They're hardly comparable associations.

they are both trading blocks. We are talking economics not politics.
your higher economic integration comes from the use of the EURO, however that also means we don't count those countries who have opted not to use the EURO. Which then puts the EU smaller then the US.

what if said man is made of solid gold and fed by devouring children's knee caps!

or rather the total sum of a nations produce is rather important in terms of measuring its power no?



are you sure you want to be associated with Mexico and Canada?



you said pee pee

Yep. I sure did!

are you sure you want to be associated with Mexico and Canada?




If it is that or Europeans, well any day of the week. At least Mexicans and Canadians are fellow Americans in the continental sense.

If it is that or Europeans, well any day of the week. At least Mexicans and Canadians are fellow Americans in the continental sense.

but your stuck with one neighbor who is contently stealing your gnomes and another who sorts his mail alphabetically before opening it

in Europe we just get drunk and have sex with each other, honest

IIRC, it would take over a hundred years at their present growth rate to over take the US, if we assume the US grows at 3%, what are you basing your mid century change-up on? I would add that even the 100 yr. case is optimistic for the Chinese economy, as developed countries grow much slower than developing ones.

Wrong. It's calculated like compounded interest. 3.500 trillion would make 23.54625 trillion in 20 years with 10% growth each year.

If your counting the EU as one entity then we count NAFTA as one entity and we are right back where we started.

Yea. NAFTA has a currency, open borderes, a parliament and everything. :rolleyes:

Wrong. It's calculated like compounded interest. 3.500 trillion would make 23.54625 trillion in 20 years with 10% growth each year.

I fucking know how its calculated, lets take 13.78 trillion which is the US economy, now its usual growth rate, say approx. 3%, and see how long until the two are equal, which was the question, not how much is it in 20 years. 24.9 trillion, I only asked cause I didn't want to prove it for you. If you read the rest of my post, you find that: "developed countries grow much slower than developing ones." meaning, as time goes on the chinese economy will likely slow down to much less than 10% (as they continue to develop), maybe thats where a 100 yr. estimate would put the Chinese economy as greater than the US. The 20 year 10% model, doesn't take into account the fact that their economy is developing, or potential economic fallout from an aging populace (one child policy).

It'd be good for you to look into what the Chinese government has to say on this issue, as they mention some of the same concerns I do, as for why the 20 yr estimate is more than generous.

Yea. NAFTA has a currency, open borderes, a parliament and everything. :rolleyes:

read my other post.
already addressed currency issue, If you don't count the opt out countries(in particular the UK) in the EU it is smaller then the US economy.

Open boarders, that's nice. When you let Turkey( or any country about that size with a vastly different culture and economy then your own) into the EU we will talk.

A parliament with what sort of authority. My history club has a parliament it does not mean we all get to count our income together for a loan. The EU is a trading block, a strong one but still a trading block. If Lisbon had not been shot down by the Irish, and maybe one or two more treaties had passed strengthening things further I would likely consider the EU a federation. After all what sort of government has a rotating presidency?

Yea. NAFTA has a currency, open borderes, a parliament and everything. :rolleyes:

It's got the open borders.

A parliament with what sort of authority. My history club has a parliament it does not mean we all get to count our income together for a loan. The EU is a trading block, a strong one but still a trading block. If Lisbon had not been shot down by the Irish, and maybe one or two more treaties had passed strengthening things further I would likely consider the EU a federation. After all what sort of government has a rotating presidency?

EU law is superior to national law. They just don't talk about it.

It's got the open borders.

for trade I think he means for people movement. though as many Mexicans as we let in it seems like it.

I fucking know how its calculated, lets take 13.78 trillion which is the US economy, now its usual growth rate, say approx. 3%, and see how long until the two are equal, which was the question, not how much is it in 20 years. 24.9 trillion, I only asked cause I didn't want to prove it for you. If you read the rest of my post, you find that: "developed countries grow much slower than developing ones." meaning, as time goes on the chinese economy will likely slow down to much less than 10% (as they continue to develop), maybe thats where a 100 yr. estimate would put the Chinese economy as greater than the US. The 20 year 10% model, doesn't take into account the fact that their economy is developing, or potential economic fallout from an aging populace (one child policy).

It'd be good for you to look into what the Chinese government has to say on this issue, as they mention some of the same concerns I do, as for why the 20 yr estimate is more than generous.

Wrong. China wont be a developed country even if it catches up to US cause its GDP per capita would be 1/3rd of US.


China to be world's largest economy in 2025
(Agencies)
Updated: 2008-03-05 15:00

KUALA LUMPUR -- China could overtake the United States by 2025 to be the world’s largest economy and is anticipated to grow to about 130% the size of the United States by 2050, said Pricewaterhouse Coopers LLP.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-03/05/content_6510506.htm

read my other post.
already addressed currency issue, If you don't count the opt out countries(in particular the UK) in the EU it is smaller then the US economy.

Open boarders, that's nice. When you let Turkey( or any country about that size with a vastly different culture and economy then your own) into the EU we will talk.

A parliament with what sort of authority. My history club has a parliament it does not mean we all get to count our income together for a loan. The EU is a trading block, a strong one but still a trading block. If Lisbon had not been shot down by the Irish, and maybe one or two more treaties had passed strengthening things further I would likely consider the EU a federation. After all what sort of government has a rotating presidency?

Turkey may not enter at all. EU is not a country of course but its not comparable to NAFTA. As for eurozone, all new states will join, hence surpassing US within a decade.

This is not simply a trading block, dont delude yourself.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/ed/Reisepass.jpg/300px-Reisepass.jpg

I dont have NAFTA on top of my canadian passport.

edit: EU is more like a confederation.

The title of the biggest economy is as important as that of the heaviest man.

What matters is: a) GDP per capita, b) Nation's discretionary budget.

According to Wiki (fount of all knowledge), the highest per caita GDP (in PPP) in 2007 was in Bermuda, but if you limit it to independent nations, it's Qatar.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

The U.S. was 6th according to IMF rankings, 4th according to the World Bank, and 8th according to the CIA. China was 100th (IMF) 90th (WB) and 105th (CIA).

Other nations of NSG interest:

Canada -- 12th (IMF) 12th (WB) 14th (CIA)

U.K. -- 18th (IMF) 16th (WB) 21st (CIA)

Australia -- 17th (IMF) 13th (WB) 16th (CIA)

New Zealand -- 32nd (IMF) 26th (WB) 35th (CIA)

Germany -- 21st (IMF) 19th (WB) 22nd (CIA)

Ireland -- 7th (IMF) 5th (WB) 7th (CIA)

Japan -- 22nd (IMF) 17th (WB) 26th (CIA)

Sweden -- 16th (IMF) 10th (WB) 15th (CIA)

Netherlands -- 11th (IMF) 8th (WB) 12th (CIA)

Spain -- 27th (IMF) 23rd (WB) 25th (CIA)

France -- 23rd (IMF) 18th (WB) 27th (CIA)

for trade I think he means for people movement. though as many Mexicans as we let in it seems like it.

Well that's sort of the point of NAFTA though, isn't it?

The big difference is residency. But that, as you point out, is moot.

According to Wiki (fount of all knowledge), the highest per caita GDP (in PPP) in 2007 was in Bermuda, but if you limit it to independent nations, it's Qatar.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

The U.S. was 6th according to IMF rankings, 4th according to the World Bank, and 8th according to the CIA. China was 100th (IMF) 90th (WB) and 105th (CIA).



US is poorer in nominal. #17.

Well that's sort of the point of NAFTA though, isn't it?

The big difference is residency. But that, as you point out, is moot.

NAFTA is about goods, people arent goods.

US is poorer in nominal. #17.

We're headed for the crapper, aren't we?

We're headed for the crapper, aren't we?

You still have the strongest military for a long time. But first comes economics, its then military power. Same thing happened with UK and US in 19th and 20th century.

China has 1.4 billion people. It's inevitable.

NAFTA is about goods, people arent goods.

Haha. Sold to you!

Why do you think they call it 'human resources'.

China still has a very long way to go, politically, economically, and militarily to be on par of the United States. They also have to increase their image in foreign societies/markets, other than "made in China".

...

It seems our arguing was irrelevant anyway. EU economy is bigger than NAFTA:

Country ↓ 2008 ↓ 2009 ↓ 2010 ↓ 2011 ↓ 2012 ↓ 2013 ↓ 2014 ↓ Estimate as of ↓
World 60,109.392 62,333.44 63,580.11 72,006.191 76,857.837 81,978.052 87,624.276 Dec 2008
European Union 19,195.080 19,156.69 19,309.94 21,256.067 22,390.739 23,624.153 25,947.017 Dec 2008
United States 14,334.034 14,147.69 14,501.38 15,859.113 16,604.845 17,310.369 17,889.673 Dec 2008
People's Republic of China 4,222.423 4,551.77 4,961.43 6,404.780 7,238.704 8,162.213 9,156.053 Dec 2008
...........
Canada 1,571.070 1,578.93 1,613.66 1,810.691 1,902.713 1,990.460 2,167.582 Dec 2008
Mexico 949.576 957.17 992.59 1,234.150 1,408.026 1,678.720 1,855.933 Dec 2008
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_future_GDP_(nominal)_estimates

(actual source is IMF)


China still has a very long way to go, politically, economically, and militarily to be on par of the United States. They also have to increase their image in foreign societies/markets, other than "made in China".

Well, mid century is a long way away. And image in foreign societies? :D :p