NationStates Jolt Archive


Global Politics in 2009

Neu Leonstein
02-01-2009, 08:58
So, we got through 2008, alive for the most part. What remains of the banking system is beginning to pick up the pieces and asking "now that we can crawl again, where to?"

But the crisis has only just started to go into its second (and more familiar) phase: a breakdown in emerging markets. Correa in Ecuador already defaulted on a bunch of debt (more out of spite and stupidity than need necessarily, it has to be said), Gazprom and by extension Putin's Grand Russian dreams are dead for the time being (and thus feeling the need to prove their cojones by playing a repeat of the Ukraine thing), Bolivarianism is hollowing out as Chávez scrambles to get the referendum on the way before the fact becomes obvious to his voters, India looks set to suffer from the incompetency of its central bank, Iran's export revenue and reserves are disappearing fast, Argentina stole its pensioners' money to avoid default etc etc

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aKgtMlZgwWHo&refer=home

Once these start lining up, you'll get contagion as other countries suffer by virtue of being similar to any of these. Few governments look like they have the resources and know-how to manage their way out of the crisis.

I think that's the overarching theme we should expect for 2009, an encore of the Lebanon war notwithstanding. Lots of countries in strife, the IMF being called in, countries complaining about "neoliberalism" with new vigour and probably repeating the mistakes of the past.

Where do you think things are heading for this year? What would you like the major actors to do in response?