NationStates Jolt Archive

It seems that over the last three days there have been over 250 tremors (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081230/ap_on_sc/yellowstone_quakes) at Yellowstone. Now, as you may recall:

(1) Tremors are common (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake#Earthquakes_and_volcanic_activity)before large eruptions (such as Mt. St. Helens, 1980 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_eruption_of_Mount_St._Helens)).
(2) There's a supervolcano (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_Caldera)there that erupts semi-regularly. They've rated it an 8 (the highest) on the VEI (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index) scale -- for reference, it's about ten times the power of Mount Tambora, which caused 1816 to be the Year Without A Summer (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_without_a_summer).
(3) Yellowstone has a huge eruption (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lava_Creek_Tuff) semi-regularly (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_Caldera#Hydrothermal_explosion_hazard) -- the next is scheduled for a hundred thousand years from now, plus or minus 100,000 years!

...Please tell me I'm reading into this too much...

I figure if it happens, well, at least we won't have to worry about global warming anymore.

I'm guessing this is your problem...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e5/Graboid.jpg

The solution?

http://naztech.org/file/pics/burtgummer.jpg

Probably you are. There is no regular cycle: more or less, it has a one in 100,000 chance of blowing up in any random year. The tremors make it appear that the chance is higher this year than in "any random year", but still probably low.
If it does blow, however, it will be very destructive.

The odds are still not terribly high, but it is a cause for some concern. If it happens this year, we will hail your predictive instincts.

Given top out of 100 years of recorded activity levels, though, with presuming greatest activity levels precede a large event, we'd still be looking at something around only a ~0.1% chance of a megaeruption, and a much more significant chance of a major hydrothermal explosion.

i'm guessing this is your problem...

they're under the ground!

...Please tell me I'm reading into this too much...

You're worrying too much. You don't know what's going to happen - if it does blow the earth to smithereens, then you're worrying about something you can't do anything about rather than getting on with the little time we all have left. And if it's not going to do anything, then you're worrying about nothing at all.

1 in 100 thousand chances are actually pretty high, when you consider 1 in over 900 million of you getting mauled to death by a shark this year. :tongue:

But there's always tremors at Yellowstone, it's the nature of the area, so you're probably reading too much into it. Just sit back, relax, and enjoy the show... unless you live next door to the national park. In that case, hightail out of there, fast! :D

I figure if it happens, well, at least we won't have to worry about global warming anymore.

Excellent point. :)

Send in Kevin Bacon.

It wouldn't kill everyone, just much of the world. Aren't the fundies praying at Yellowstone for the end of days? Speaking of that, we should throw them into another volcano that's active already, throw in the jihadists too, leave the bombs on them for some fancy fireworks.

We are all going to die :(

We are all going to die :(

That was always going to happen - at least now we know when, so we can arrange parties! :D

That was always going to happen
That was going to be my defence if challenged :D

Bet you $200 it does not blow up this year.

Only gotta make it 25 hours

Are we dead yet?

Meh, there's always a violent erruption, or a plague, or an alien deathray that will exterminate all life on the planet.

But we're still here... :)

Bet you $200 it does not blow up this year.

Only gotta make it 25 hours

Hey it's a win-win for you anyway! If it blows up, America will collapse and the dollar will be worthless along with the world economy being shafted by nuclear-winter-type event.

Make it $1million!

Run and hide! Run and hide!:eek:

*notes down not to invade Russia*

It seems that over the last three days there have been over 250 tremors (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081230/ap_on_sc/yellowstone_quakes) at Yellowstone. Now, as you may recall:

(1) Tremors are common (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake#Earthquakes_and_volcanic_activity)before large eruptions (such as Mt. St. Helens, 1980 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_eruption_of_Mount_St._Helens)).
(2) There's a supervolcano (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_Caldera)there that erupts semi-regularly. They've rated it an 8 (the highest) on the VEI (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index) scale -- for reference, it's about ten times the power of Mount Tambora, which caused 1816 to be the Year Without A Summer (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_without_a_summer).
(3) Yellowstone has a huge eruption (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lava_Creek_Tuff) semi-regularly (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_Caldera#Hydrothermal_explosion_hazard) -- the next is scheduled for a hundred thousand years from now, plus or minus 100,000 years!

...Please tell me I'm reading into this too much...
so you think that the scientists who study yellowstone have decided to keep its imminent eruption a secret becasue we are all going to die anyway?

I watched a documentary a while ago that discussed the Yellowstone tremor problem. If the park were to have an erruption of it's geysers, or an erruption strong enough to cause damage, a third or so of the US could be in serious trouble. As I read this thread, those tremors have unfortunately increased.

Meh, I doubt anything will happen. I'm sure Yellowstone has plenty of tremors. Now if we start seeing ashes and lava coming out of Yellowstone, then it's time to get out of Dodge.

so you think that the scientists who study yellowstone have decided to keep its imminent eruption a secret because we are all going to die anyway?

No, if my worries are correct then (1) the scientists didn't know until a couple days ago and (2) they're still far from convinced that it's the supervolcano's time...

And it wouldn't necessarily destroy the US; it would, however, give us a great deal of water shortages, and it'd cause worldwide famine. If the US broke apart, that'd mean it would be bad enough half the other countries broke apart too.

Meh, I doubt anything will happen. I'm sure Yellowstone has plenty of tremors. Now if we start seeing ashes and lava coming out of Yellowstone, then it's time to get out of Dodge.

is 1000 miles not far enough away already?

No, if my worries are correct then (1) the scientists didn't know until a couple days ago and (2) they're still far from convinced that it's the supervolcano's time...

And it wouldn't necessarily destroy the US; it would, however, give us a great deal of water shortages, and it'd cause worldwide famine. If the US broke apart, that'd mean it would be bad enough half the other countries broke apart too.
it would kill ME and that is what matters!

im at the southern end of the significant piling up of ash zone. i have no idea how long it would take for the ash to get here so i dont know if i could hop into the car and drive to mexico and survive.

This has been going on for a long time. I've been waiting for Yellowstone to blow up for nearly 20 years now. The fact is, it's very sad to be a vulcanologist. It's like one of those sci-fi stories where someone is living in a different speed of time than other people and can't figure out how to communicate with the others so they'll understand. Vulcanologists live in geological time, which moves very, very, very, very slowly in units of measure that are huge compared to human minutes/hours/years, but within that enormous, slow moving time line, when things do happen, they happen all at once.

So vulcanologists can say very accurately, the super-volcano is doing this and it means this, but as soon as they have to answer WHEN it's going to happen, they start getting that skeptical rolling of the eyes from other people. Soon, everybody decides they're just Chicken Littles yelling that the sky is going to fall, and everyone ignores them.

And then the sky falls. Exactly like they said it would, only not when they guessed it might.

is 1000 miles not far enough away already?
Depends which way the wind is blowing.

I've simply chosen not to live my life in fear. If I panic over every little thing that happens, i'll never be able to enjoy what life I have left.

And it wouldn't necessarily destroy the US;
Only half of it.

Sure the chances of it going off is small, but if we've learned one thing from history it is that volcano predicting is a imprecise science at best.

Oh well, if it goes up, then it's been nice knowing y'all.

Sure the chances of it going off is small, but if we've learned one thing from history it is that volcano predicting is a imprecise science at best.

Oh well, if it goes up, then it's been nice knowing y'all.

Well, i'm sure that even if the Volcano goes up, mankind will survive. Hardy little buggers we are. :)

I'm sure glad I bought a volcano shelter when they were still cheap. As soon as this news gets out the prices are going to skyrocket.

Well, i'm sure that even if the Volcano goes up, mankind will survive. Hardy little buggers we are. :)
To be sure, but a lot of the things we take for granted would not.

To be sure, but a lot of the things we take for granted would not.

Like i said earlier, I refuse to live my life in fear. If we die, we die. If not, then I'm hungry. :p

Is Yogi okay?

I saw the supervolcano special too. Very fascinating stuff, but I'm not overly worried about it blowing up just because they're bouncing around a little bit more than usual. The Long Valley caldera out here went through a pretty good bouncy quake phase a few years ago that had some people POSITIVE that the Mammoth Mountain ski resorts and stuff were going to go up in a fiery volcanic explosion. Funny enough, my coworkers have a ski trip this weekend up there, because it clearly didn't blow up.

While it's weird that the tremors are all located so close to eachother (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsus/Maps/special/Yellowstone.php), looking at the list of quakes, the range of how deep they are has a pretty good variation, anywhere from extremely shallow (listed 0.0 km on the quake list) to over 7 km down. If it's from a supervolcano about to blow, I would figure that the quakes would be a lot closer in depth due to originating from where it's shifting; the weak spot where it's gonna uncork the magma chamber.

Long and short of it: I don't think it's likely going to blow and usher in the end of civilization as we know it (besides, isn't that supposed to be 2012? =p) If it does blow, there's not a damn thing I can do about it; so I'm not going to spend time worrying.

... Then again, I do live in California (http://quake.usgs.gov/recenteqs/latest.htm), and they've been saying for years that "OMG THE BIG ONE IS GONNA HAPPEN AAAANY TIME NAO AND KILL U ALL!" So I'm probably just a wee bit jaded by geological "OMG NOES DOOM IS COMING!"

It seems that over the last three days there have been over 250 tremors (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081230/ap_on_sc/yellowstone_quakes) at Yellowstone. Now, as you may recall:

(1) Tremors are common (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake#Earthquakes_and_volcanic_activity)before large eruptions (such as Mt. St. Helens, 1980 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_eruption_of_Mount_St._Helens)).
(2) There's a supervolcano (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_Caldera)there that erupts semi-regularly. They've rated it an 8 (the highest) on the VEI (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index) scale -- for reference, it's about ten times the power of Mount Tambora, which caused 1816 to be the Year Without A Summer (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_without_a_summer).
(3) Yellowstone has a huge eruption (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lava_Creek_Tuff) semi-regularly (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_Caldera#Hydrothermal_explosion_hazard) -- the next is scheduled for a hundred thousand years from now, plus or minus 100,000 years!

...Please tell me I'm reading into this too much...
Right. I'm going to be bloody pissed off if it happens in the next couple of months, because I'd have either been in Chicago or South Carolina rather than here.

And just bloody pissed off in general, since it ranks pretty high on the disaster scale...

(sniperoonie)
Long and short of it: I don't think it's likely going to blow and usher in the end of civilization as we know it (besides, isn't that supposed to be 2012? =p) If it does blow, there's not a damn thing I can do about it; so I'm not going to spend time worrying.

... Then again, I do live in California (http://quake.usgs.gov/recenteqs/latest.htm), and they've been saying for years that "OMG THE BIG ONE IS GONNA HAPPEN AAAANY TIME NAO AND KILL U ALL!" So I'm probably just a wee bit jaded by geological "OMG NOES DOOM IS COMING!"
That's some good advice there. Although it might just be that I feel much the same way about us Icelanders worrying about a huge quake shaking up the southern half of the country.:D

This has been going on for a long time. I've been waiting for Yellowstone to blow up for nearly 20 years now. The fact is, it's very sad to be a vulcanologist. It's like one of those sci-fi stories where someone is living in a different speed of time than other people and can't figure out how to communicate with the others so they'll understand. Vulcanologists live in geological time, which moves very, very, very, very slowly in units of measure that are huge compared to human minutes/hours/years, but within that enormous, slow moving time line, when things do happen, they happen all at once.

So vulcanologists can say very accurately, the super-volcano is doing this and it means this, but as soon as they have to answer WHEN it's going to happen, they start getting that skeptical rolling of the eyes from other people. Soon, everybody decides they're just Chicken Littles yelling that the sky is going to fall, and everyone ignores them.

And then the sky falls. Exactly like they said it would, only not when they guessed it might.
Indeed. I wouldn't call myself a vulcanologist--not even close, but I do have quite a lot of interest in the subject--and I have to admit, the way people get pissed off or just roll their eyes really frustrates me.

But that's just science in general for you, and a trope of stories at that. You'd think we'd get the idea by now that we should probably LISTEN to the doomsayer with the actual credit behind their doom prophecy, but no. :(

Still, in all honesty, I don't think Yellowstone is going to go this year, albeit I am concerned about it, seeing as how I'm pretty sure I'm in the "Certain death" zone...

I think George W. Bush should launch a preemptive strike against the supervolcano. *nod*

It's just another manifestation of global warming. Warming=heat=hot water=geysers=friction reduction=fault=conduction path=magma flow=volcano

QED

I'm guessing this is your problem...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e5/Graboid.jpg
Damn! Too late to post that one. :mad::(:p;)

But yes, I was aiming for the same. Funny movie, that!

Obama will save us!

That's some good advice there. Although it might just be that I feel much the same way about us Icelanders worrying about a huge quake shaking up the southern half of the country.:D

Don't you Icelanders have quite a bit of other stuff to worry about with the total economic collapse?

Bet you $200 it does not blow up this year.

Only gotta make it 25 hours

Sorry, but since Yellowstone is in the US (Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho), you have just under 28 hours from now (since that's when it'll be 2009 in Yellowstone).

:tongue:

Hey it's a win-win for you anyway! If it blows up, America will collapse and the dollar will be worthless along with the world economy being shafted by nuclear-winter-type event.

Make it $1million!

If Yellowstone blows up, Canada's going to be smacked pretty hard too. If ash from the MSH can reach the East Coast, then Yellowstone's gonna throw it a hell of a lot farther. Yellowstone could be a near ELE.

Sorry, but since Yellowstone is in the US (Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho), you have just under 28 hours from now (since that's when it'll be 2009 in Yellowstone).

:tongue:

Bloody Seppos...

It is no longer 2008 when any part of the world is in 2009, therefore I only have to make it a few more hours (about 8).

Cause if any part of the world is 2009, you can no longer say it is 2008 around the world. Therefore, unless it erupts in the next 8 hours you owe me $200.

Bloody Seppos...

It is no longer 2008 when any part of the world is in 2009, therefore I only have to make it a few more hours (about 8).

Cause if any part of the world is 2009, you can no longer say it is 2008 around the world. Therefore, unless it erupts in the next 8 hours you owe me $200.

First off, I didn't make the bet. Second off, it'll still be 2008 in Yellowstone for another 27 hours, 34 minutes. It'll still be 2008 in CT (where I live) for another 25 hours, 34 minutes.

Don't you Icelanders have quite a bit of other stuff to worry about with the total economic collapse?
We beg to differ.:tongue:

First off, I didn't make the bet. Second off, it'll still be 2008 in Yellowstone for another 27 hours, 34 minutes. It'll still be 2008 in CT (where I live) for another 25 hours, 34 minutes.

You're ignoring logic here!
If it is not 2008 everywhere, it cannot be 2008 anymore! :p

My logic is infallable!!!

We beg to differ.:tongue:

My Icelandic friend's business just took a huge hit... Luckily she has a few international customers who are still paying.

Only half of it.
Meh. Just states that voted for McCain/Palin anyhow.

Yellowstone could be a near ELE.
Hardly. It's blown up hundreds of time during the Cenozoic Era. It would be bigger than Krakatoa, but that didn't exactly end life as we know it.

is 1000 miles not far enough away already?

More than enough. If you live 1000 miles straight above Yellowstone that is.

Probably you are. There is no regular cycle: more or less, it has a one in 100,000 chance of blowing up in any random year. The tremors make it appear that the chance is higher this year than in "any random year", but still probably low.
If it does blow, however, it will be very destructive.

It would likely be an Extinction Level Event.

Bet you $200 it does not blow up this year.

Only gotta make it 25 hours

Ah, but America's behind, isn't it?

It would likely be an Extinction Level Event.Why this time, and not any of the hundreds of times it has happened before?

I'm guessing this is your problem...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e5/Graboid.jpg

The solution?

http://naztech.org/file/pics/burtgummer.jpg

LOL! now I have to clean up my drink off the computer screen.

that made my day.

Why this time, and not any of the hundreds of times it has happened before?

It hasn't happened hundreds of times. They estimate that a mega-explosion of the Yellowstone Caldera would rate an 8 on the VEI scale, as Ash pointed out earlier. There have only been 47 VEI-8 eruptions in the last 480 million years. The last occurred 26,500 years ago. A similar eruption 73,000 years ago very nearly was an ELE.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Toba

What I heard was that Yellowstone goes off every couple hundred thousand years, and has been doing so for dozens of millions of years. I know of no discontinuity in the history of life either 26,500 or 73,000 years ago, so I think you are just being sensationalist.

It will probably erupt on Dec 21, 2012.

*looks around* What?

What I heard was that Yellowstone goes off every couple hundred thousand years, and has been doing so for dozens of millions of years. I know of no discontinuity in the history of life either 26,500 or 73,000 years ago, so I think you are just being sensationalist.

ELEs don't mean the end of life, just a lot of it dying off. Since the vast majority of species on Earth aren't the visible plants and animals we see every day, it's quite possible that many of those events didn't produce tangible effects or if they did the ecosystem recovered quickly as new organisms filled the gaps left by the extinct ones.

Of course, this doesn't mean these events are a nonissue...if they do happen, things would be very, very unpleasant for us for a while, at least until the climate and ecosystem recovered to normal. Personally, I wouldn't worry about it since we've had as high as VEI-7s in recent recorded history without societal collapse, but suffice to say the order of magnitude increase in strength between 7 and 8 is enough to cause some problems.

I figure as long as it doesn't happen in the next 1,000 years, we're 100% in the clear. The second we're successfully offworld, hakuna matata.

Am I the only one who's tired of hearing about all these bad things that are suppose to happen to us, and wish they'd happen already so people would shut up about it?

If Yellowstone does go off, it would be ironic to have a Scientology field trip there at the time.

Am I the only one who's tired of hearing about all these bad things that are suppose to happen to us, and wish they'd happen already so people would shut up about it?

I personally can't wait for 2012 to pass so we dont have to hear all the doomsday bs surrounding that one. It does get old I have to agree.

Of course, this doesn't mean these events are a nonissue...if they do happen, things would be very, very unpleasant for us for a while, at least until the climate and ecosystem recovered to normal. Personally, I wouldn't worry about it since we've had as high as VEI-7s in recent recorded history without societal collapse, but suffice to say the order of magnitude increase in strength between 7 and 8 is enough to cause some problems..

We were lucky with Tambora, however, the Lake Taupo Eruption of 186 probably helped lead to the famines that resulted in the collapse of the Han Dynasty.

The big issue was whether or not Tambora was as big as Lake Taupo. We know that the Lake Taupo eruption turned the sky red over Rome, but I don't believe that Tambora had such an effect. My guess is that we haven't had an eruption with the potential to cause societal collapse since 186.

Of course, like those who live near Yellowstone, I would have reason to be concerned. Not only does Auckland sit smack bang in a volcanic field, but we are also very close to Lake Taupo.

Am I the only one who's tired of hearing about all these bad things that are suppose to happen to us, and wish they'd happen already so people would shut up about it?

I share your feelings. All the talk lately is about bad things that will happen. It gets tiring.:(

What I heard was that Yellowstone goes off every couple hundred thousand years, and has been doing so for dozens of millions of years. I know of no discontinuity in the history of life either 26,500 or 73,000 years ago, so I think you are just being sensationalist.

ELEs don't mean the end of life, just a lot of it dying off. Since the vast majority of species on Earth aren't the visible plants and animals we see every day, it's quite possible that many of those events didn't produce tangible effects or if they did the ecosystem recovered quickly as new organisms filled the gaps left by the extinct ones.

Of course, this doesn't mean these events are a nonissue...if they do happen, things would be very, very unpleasant for us for a while, at least until the climate and ecosystem recovered to normal. Personally, I wouldn't worry about it since we've had as high as VEI-7s in recent recorded history without societal collapse, but suffice to say the order of magnitude increase in strength between 7 and 8 is enough to cause some problems.

I figure as long as it doesn't happen in the next 1,000 years, we're 100% in the clear. The second we're successfully offworld, hakuna matata.

In addition to what Vetalia said, the link I gave in my last post stated that after the Lake Toba eruption, humanity passed through a "genetic bottleneck", which is explained here.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_bottleneck

I'm bored with all these doomsday theroies. Anyone fancy a pint? :p

I've read about the han dynasty, and I'm pretty sure it was on the verge of collapse even without a volcanic winter...

* Starting in 88 AD, *every* han emperor was coronated at a young age, often when they hadn't even reached puberty. Naturally, this was so regents could continue to hold (and misuse) powers. Now, Emperor Zhi (145-146 AD) was actually quite intelligent, but (since he was so young) he let it slip, offending Liang Ji (who was, arguably even nmore pwoer than him) in the process. Shortly after, Liang Ji found a way to poison him, ending Huan's 8-year life
* Under Emperor Huan (146-168 AD), the eunuchs (who were NOT trained to administrate, but to handle empress-0related functions that nonsterile men could not be trusted with) helped him elinminate Liang Ji.... and gaining that same obscene amount of power in the process.
* The Eunuchs actually grew stronger during Emperor Ling's reign. An early attempt was made to remove them, but it failed. Finally, when Ling died in 189 AD, Emperor Shao's father-in-law, He Jin(along with Yuan Shao, Yuan Shu, and others) plotted to remove the eunuchs, but also invited Dong Zhuo (one of the few people you CAN compare to Hitler without hyperbole) to the capital despite Yuan Shao claimign that would be a bad idea. The eunuchs found out and slew He Jin; Yuan Shao's troops slew the eunuchs; Dong Zhuo took dvantage of the power vacuum tobecome a tyrant. Although Dong Zhuo was eventually slain in 192 AD, by then the emperors hgeld no power and chian was divided into warlords.

So no, Mount Toupa was not responsible for the fall of the han dynasty.

It seems that over the last three days there have been over 250 tremors (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081230/ap_on_sc/yellowstone_quakes) at Yellowstone. Now, as you may recall:

(1) Tremors are common (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake#Earthquakes_and_volcanic_activity)before large eruptions (such as Mt. St. Helens, 1980 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_eruption_of_Mount_St._Helens)).
(2) There's a supervolcano (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_Caldera)there that erupts semi-regularly. They've rated it an 8 (the highest) on the VEI (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index) scale -- for reference, it's about ten times the power of Mount Tambora, which caused 1816 to be the Year Without A Summer (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_without_a_summer).
(3) Yellowstone has a huge eruption (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lava_Creek_Tuff) semi-regularly (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowstone_Caldera#Hydrothermal_explosion_hazard) -- the next is scheduled for a hundred thousand years from now, plus or minus 100,000 years!

...Please tell me I'm reading into this too much...

I hope you are, cause if you aren't, there goes the Southwest.

Is Yogi okay?

Yogi is alive and well with Boo Boo in Jellystone Park.