NationStates Jolt Archive

Paddy Power gambling has offered 12 to 1 odds on obama being shot.
http://www.gambling911.com/politics/obama-assassination-bet-bad-taste-odds-still-offered-110708.html


Is the bet in bad taste ?
do you think the odds are accurate?
Also gamblers
trying to confirm which way the odds read. if it is reading i get a pay out of 12X what i put in if he survives I think i will take that bet.


I intend to take the bet, for Obama and America winning. Just cant on paddy power. anyone else know an online booky offering this bet.

I have a hard time believing that's legal.

It's not gonna happen.

Don't bet on things like that. It's bad karma....and there are enough desperate people out there who might do it just to win a bet.
Was Lee Harvey Oswald a crazy, an ideological or a paid assassin? It's an academic question really. The point is that JFK was killed.

There are plenty of crazy rednecks out there.......

I have a hard time believing that's legal.

online gambling based in Ireland. And i would be betting for him(and for the US not being nothing but a bunch of racist fucktards)

That is rather in poor taste.

Well, there ARE a lot of armed racists in America, and from the ones I've had the displeasure to encounter, they are none to stable (or smart for that matter). I'd say an attempt is almost certain.

Well, there ARE a lot of armed racists in America, and from the ones I've had the displeasure to encounter, they are none to stable (or smart for that matter). I'd say an attempt is almost certain.

I am also betting on any attempts are failures. But power paddy does not accept American customers. So anyone else know an Online bookie giving odds on Obama being assassinated his first term.

I don't think that's even a legal bet in the US GaD

There already have been attempts. And they've been thwarted.

That's some pretty shitty odds right there.

online gambling based in Ireland. And i would be betting for him(and for the US not being nothing but a bunch of racist fucktards)

I have a hard time believing it's legal to place that kind of a bet. It's practically a bounty.

Paddy Power gambling has offered 12 to 1 odds on obama being shot.
http://www.gambling911.com/politics/obama-assassination-bet-bad-taste-odds-still-offered-110708.html


Is the bet in bad taste ?
do you think the odds are accurate?
Also gamblers
trying to confirm which way the odds read. if it is reading i get a pay out of 12X what i put in if he survives I think i will take that bet.


I intend to take the bet, for Obama and America winning. Just cant on paddy power. anyone else know an online booky offering this bet.

Some idiot will try-just like some idiot tries with EVERY president. It's part of the job that you'll get some dipshit trying to kill you when you take on the position. In Obama's case, the sheer weight of his fame will motivate the murderous idiots even more than normal- a Presidency hyped as "Historical" always draws the really dangerous looneys out to play.

That's some pretty shitty odds right there.

Fuck, I know.

Anyway, I don't see this as bad taste at all. It's a possibility, why not put a few dollars on it? Personally I don't think it will happen, so the odds would be like $1.20 or something ridiculous. Not worth it at all.

Fuck, I know.

Anyway, I don't see this as bad taste at all. It's a possibility, why not put a few dollars on it? Personally I don't think it will happen, so the odds would be like $1.20 or something ridiculous. Not worth it at all.

so if he lives i only win 1.20 for every dollar put in ??

Hey, if it really does happen, then the economy will crumble, most likely. Chinese businesses will be able to move in and buy American firms, thus making everything cheaper! Well... for countries that aren't America.

If he gets assassinated, Joe Biden takes over and the entire country unifies against the perpetrators, quite possibly resulting in not only their deaths but the destruction of whatever organization they represent. Definitely not something anyone with half a brain would attempt...we've been preparing for that kind of shit since the 60's, so the chance is far less likely than 12:1.

Might be a good way to make money, though...get people to seriously believe the odds are that good and rake in the cash.

Definitely not something anyone with half a brain would attempt...

I didn't know white supremacists had brains... :|

Again I am not familiar with how the odds work I never gamble. 12:1 for assassination.
does that mean if he makes it ever dollar i put in is 12 fold ???

Again I am not familiar with how the odds work I never gamble. 12:1 for assassination.
does that mean if he makes it ever dollar i put in is 12 fold ???

No, if gets assassinated you get 12x your bet back.

I didn't know white supremacists had brains... :|

The kind that pull off assassinations usually do.

No, if gets assassinated you get 12x your bet back.

so only 1.2 per dollar back against ?? hmm inflation will likely not make that worth anything.

so if he lives i only win 1.20 for every dollar put in ??

I'm not sure, it could be less even. Depends what the booky is offering!

so only 1.2 per dollar back against ?? hmm inflation will likely not make that worth anything.

No, $12 per $1 bet.

I didn't know white supremacists had brains... :|

If there's any correlation between intelligence and ideological extremism, I'd guess that smart people are more inclined towards radical ideas.

Seriously...I have the utmost confidence in the Secret Service, after all, Bush lasted for eight years.

Paddy Power gambling has offered 12 to 1 odds on obama being shot.
http://www.gambling911.com/politics/obama-assassination-bet-bad-taste-odds-still-offered-110708.html


Is the bet in bad taste ?
do you think the odds are accurate?
Also gamblers
trying to confirm which way the odds read. if it is reading i get a pay out of 12X what i put in if he survives I think i will take that bet.


I intend to take the bet, for Obama and America winning. Just cant on paddy power. anyone else know an online booky offering this bet.

Bad taste, bad karma, possibly illegal.

Bad taste, bad karma, possibly illegal.

I'm sure that if they were American based it would be.. partially because online gambling is illegal in most states. Partially because well.. it can easily be construed as a terroristic threat.

If there's any correlation between intelligence and ideological extremism, I'd guess that smart people are more inclined towards radical ideas.

So how does that explain Sarah Palin?

:tongue:

So how does that explain Sarah Palin?

:tongue:

McCain's spinmeisters made her look more radical than she really was?

So how does that explain Sarah Palin?

:tongue:

Fundamentalist Christianity is quite mainstream in America. Much more so than, say, atheism. And saying that Palin has "ideas" is rather generous.

I'm sure that if they were American based it would be.. partially because online gambling is illegal in most states. Partially because well.. it can easily be construed as a terroristic threat.

Closer to an incentive for assassination rather than terrorist threat? Especially if the payout odds become sharply stacked.

Closer to an incentive for assassination rather than terrorist threat? Especially if the payout odds become sharply stacked.

So in a way its a bounty... which is still illegal.

I don't get it - under what law could it be illegal to place this bet?

Bad odds? Maybe.
Bad taste? Definitely.
Bad karma? Sure, whatever.
But illegal - how?

Edit: Surely you couldn't kill him, then claim the money - you'd have influenced the outcome. (Plus I assume the US has an equivalent of the UK Proceeds of Crime Act which stops, for instance, a wanted criminal turning themself in so as to claim the reward.)

So in a way its a bounty... which is still illegal.

You have to prove in a court of law beyond a shadow of a doubt that the book was made specifically to encourage the assassination of Obama. And given that odds have been placed on just about anything imaginable, that'll be pretty hard to show.

You have to prove in a court of law beyond a shadow of a doubt that the book was made specifically to encourage the assassination of Obama. And given that odds have been placed on just about anything imaginable, that'll be pretty hard to show.

Would depend wouldn't on the odds wouldn't it? Extremely stacked odds resulting in a massive payout for a successful assassination could certainly be taken as an encouragement.

Would depend wouldn't on the odds wouldn't it? Extremely stacked odds resulting in a massive payout for a successful assassination could certainly be taken as an encouragement.

Agreeing to take someone's money on the bet would constitute conspiracy to murder? Can't see that standing up in court.

Would depend wouldn't on the odds wouldn't it? Extremely stacked odds resulting in a massive payout for a successful assassination could certainly be taken as an encouragement.

Well 12-1 is hardly extremely stacked odds.. I mean, not too bad if you really believe it could happen, but not enough to bet on if you were unsure.

No, $12 per $1 bet.
13, you'll get your original dollar back too.

13, you'll get your original dollar back too.

You would make $11 all up. What you get back is odds x amount of money you put in. So, in this case, $12 x $1 = $12 return. You get your dollar plus $11 back.

You would make $11 all up. What you get back is odds x amount of money you put in. So, in this case, $12 x $1 = $12 return. You get your dollar plus $11 back.

13, you'll get your original dollar back too.

NZ bookies must be having a right laugh at the punters if that's how they pay out. In this neck of the woods Yootopia is right, your return would be odds x stake, plus the original stake returned.

NZ bookies must be having a right laugh at the punters if that's how they pay out. In this neck of the woods Yootopia is right, your return would be odds x stake, plus the original stake returned.

Fuck really? Weird to think of it like that. But fair enough I guess. I know it's the same in Aussie too. A tleast, I think it is....

I don't know what I know any more! :eek2:

What odds are they taking on him not getting assassinated? Call me crazy, but I think a bet on the guy with a very well funded security force beats a bet on a nutjob with a gun.

What odds are they taking on him not getting assassinated? Call me crazy, but I think a bet on the guy with a very well funded security force beats a bet on a nutjob with a gun.

I doubt the Secret Service was holding charity bake sales to make ends meet when JFK bit the farm.

I doubt the Secret Service was holding charity bake sales to make ends meet when JFK bit the farm.

Indeed, but I still figure an assassin would be the underdog. Sure, it can be done, but chances are it won't.

If bush didn't get shot, I don't think the odds are high Obama will be shot.
In any case, if at any point a lot of people are suddenly betting against him, then at least you have an indicator that you might want to increase security. Ultimately, it's just another way to get intelligence.

Indeed, but I still figure an assassin would be the underdog. Sure, it can be done, but chances are it won't.

Who knows? It's not like Palin and McCain (to a lesser extent) took the moral high ground and avoided stoking up divisions with real murderous intent from their base.

Gun shops throughout the red states saw record sales the day after the election (I've been meaning to start a thread to discuss just what those buying all those guns are arming for). I wonder if that's what prompted Paddy Power to post odds...

Gun shops throughout the red states saw record sales the day after the election (I've been meaning to start a thread to discuss just what those buying all those guns are arming for). I wonder if that's what prompted Paddy Power to post odds...

The rednecks could also be preparing for a racial civil war.

Gun shops throughout the red states saw record sales the day after the electionBecause they're afraid Obama will restrict gun sales.
At least that's what I heard in the news.

The rednecks could also be preparing for a racial civil war.Kinda what I think. I figure paranoia is settin' in, they think the worlds gonna come to an end now that a n****r has been elected president. They think they have to arm up to protect themselves from the army of liberal colored atheists who soon will be coming to take their jobs, date their daughters, teach their kids about homosexuality and build mosques and synogues where the Baptist church used to stand

Because they're afraid Obama will restrict gun sales.
At least that's what I heard in the news.??? Since the president doesn't make laws, congress does, and I don't see Obama pushing the envelope of presidential decree the way Dubya did, I kind of find that reasoning illogical.

Of course you could argue fear of the returning, heavily democratic congress enacting tougher federal gun laws (which is more plausible than any action on the part of the president), But you've still got months to go before anything like that could even be proposed, much less passed and put into effect.

Doesn't really satisfactorily explain why record sales happened the day after the election...

??? Since the president doesn't make laws, congress does, and I don't see Obama pushing the envelope of presidential decree the way Dubya did, I kind of find that reasoning illogical.

Of course you could argue fear of the returning, heavily democratic congress enacting tougher federal gun laws (which is more plausible than any action on the part of the president), But you've still got months to go before anything like that could even be proposed, much less passed and put into effect.

Doesn't really satisfactorily explain why record sales happened the day after the election...

We're not talking about the sharpest knife in the drawer here....

so if he lives i only win 1.20 for every dollar put in ?? Hey I need money I''l put $5 in.:wink:

Of course you could argue fear of the returning, heavily democratic congress enacting tougher federal gun laws (which is more plausible than any action on the part of the president), But you've still got months to go before anything like that could even be proposed, much less passed and put into effect.

Doesn't really satisfactorily explain why record sales happened the day after the election...

Actually, from talking to friends back home, it's precisely why people are buying up guns. Action on the US Govt's part may not happen for several months, but why wait? If anything, an impending ban would cause prices for the soon to be banned weapons to skyrocket.

It's not necessarily all Republicans that are doing this. Many of the people I know who are buying lots of guns are Democrats and voted for Obama, but gun control is one of the few issues they disagree with him on.

Of course, I try to explain to them that Heller would likely prevent any such thing, but people can be silly sometimes.

I wonder what kind of surveillance they're putting on people betting over $10,000?

I don't think that's even a legal bet in the US GaD

If you're in Nevada, you're allowed to bet on virtually anything. There are oddsmakers who run a real business taking those bets.

If you're in Nevada, you're allowed to bet on virtually anything. There are oddsmakers who run a real business taking those bets.

it is against the law to profit from illegal activity, and since any assassination of a sitting president is most certainly against the law, winning a bet for seeing the president shot would constitute profiting from an illegal act.

If Hillary couldn't get him, I think he'll be okay. ;)

No, $12 per $1 bet.

i dont want to bet on him being assassinated I want to bet against it.

it is against the law to profit from illegal activity, and since any assassination of a sitting president is most certainly against the law, winning a bet for seeing the president shot would constitute profiting from an illegal act.

I believe you would have to be directly involved in the illegal activity.

If what you say is true, then the news organizations that profit from showing illegal activity (car chases, security camera footage of robberies, etc) would be "profiting from illegal activity" and thus in be in trouble.

I'm sure that betting on the assassination would get you a free home visit from the Secret Service.

Speaking of which, if I was any President, I'd worry about my own bodyguards before I worried about nutjobs. These guys are around every day, all the time, and they have loaded weapons and are extremely good with them.

Speaking of which, if I was any President, I'd worry about my own bodyguards before I worried about nutjobs. These guys are around every day, all the time, and they have loaded weapons and are extremely good with them.

They also have a sense of duty that transcends ideological differences. and a very in depth back ground check.

They also have a sense of duty that transcends ideological differences. and a very in depth back ground check.

They're humans, not robots.

They're humans, not robots.

If the Arab Muslim on bush's security detail didn't shoot him, especially after being denied a seat on a Commercial plane due to security issues, I think Obama is safe from Whitey, at least those with in his own security detail.

it is against the law to profit from illegal activity, and since any assassination of a sitting president is most certainly against the law, winning a bet for seeing the president shot would constitute profiting from an illegal act.

Operating on that logic people wouldn't be allowed to write and sell "True Crime" type books. I'm pretty sure that for once DK is right and you actually have to have been the one who committed the crime for that to kick in.

I hope he isn´t assassinated. That would suck and but a damper on this historic happening. The first African-American president of the US.

I think he'll make it through a whole term. It's mainly just scaremongering.

I think he'll make it through a whole term. It's mainly just scaremongering.

From what Ive read the secret service is pulling out all the stops to Keep obama safe. Every time he has given a speech in public he is behind 2 inch bullet proof glass. I reckon any group able to pull it off would be smart enough to realize Obama as a martyr is far more damage to their goals then he could ever be as a living president.

I think he'll make it through a whole term. It's mainly just scaremongering.
Agreed.

They're humans, not robots.

You don't have to be a robot to have professionalism.

From what Ive read the secret service is pulling out all the stops to Keep obama safe. Every time he has given a speech in public he is behind 2 inch bullet proof glass. I reckon any group able to pull it off would be smart enough to realize Obama as a martyr is far more damage to their goals then he could ever be as a living president.

Source?

Source?

only thing on the fly is this
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1083444/Bulletproof-glass-shields-Obama-victory-speech-security-stepped-President-elect.html


just inferring the rest of the time so far hes only given two speeches since he was elected though.

In bad taste, offensive, and wrong.

Yes, the odds are higher than usual, but I doubt they can be perfectly predicted, and in any case the President has some of the best protection in the world.

I think it's still mainly scaremongering.

I think it's still mainly scaremongering.

or jsut drunk red necks speaking to hear their teeth rattle.

I hope he isn´t assassinated. That would suck and but a damper on this historic happening. The first African-American president of the US.

Riots in the short term.

In the long term, so many people who voted for the first time and saw hope in Obama would lose any real faith in democracy as a system. Leaving the system more firmly in the hands of the lobyists and the nut jobs than ever. And the US would once again be hated around the world, with all Americans type cast as racist hick scum.

Riots in the short term.

In the long term, so many people who voted for the first time and saw hope in Obama would lose any real faith in democracy as a system. Leaving the system more firmly in the hands of the lobyists and the nut jobs than ever. And the US would once again be hated around the world, with all Americans type cast as racist hick scum.

Don't forget the Palinstinians who would be dancing out in the streets passing out candy.

Is the bet in bad taste ?
do you think the odds are accurate?

Bad taste and inaccurate odds. Reagan broke the US Presidental curse (http://www.snopes.com/history/american/curse.asp). so the odds should be much, much higher.

Bad taste and inaccurate odds. Reagan broke the US Presidental curse (http://www.snopes.com/history/american/curse.asp). so the odds should be much, much higher.

or maybe the curse only affects progressives ??? conservatives being immune to death via zombification and all.

Don't forget the Palinstinians who would be dancing out in the streets passing out candy.

Yes, because all of the people who supported Palin would rejoice at the death of our President.

Not really. I happened to be one of those people who supported her and I certainly wouldn't be rejoicing over something so horrible like that.

Generalizations are bad.

Riots in the short term.

In the long term, so many people who voted for the first time and saw hope in Obama would lose any real faith in democracy as a system. Leaving the system more firmly in the hands of the lobyists and the nut jobs than ever. And the US would once again be hated around the world, with all Americans type cast as racist hick scum.

I can only wish him all the luck in the world and that nothing horrible be falls him. He has a wife and children. If only for that, may he never come to harm.

Death pools aren't anything new in gambling. 12-1 are pretty bad odds. Heck if you look at the fact that 4 of 43 presidents have been assassinated while in office, then you just have to take this bet. Poor taste as it may be, the odds given make it a smart one to make if you are a cold gambler who would make such a bet.

Remove the first 15 presidents and start with Lincoln, and the assassination rate is 4 of 28. Just using that I'd say 7-1 odds would be the right ones to set. If the odds were set lower, then the bet is a bad one to make. If the odds are higher, as they are, it's a good bet if you are a cold hearted bastard.

(you can sort of tell I'm into statistics and gambling)

Honestly I've never done a death pool and would never bet on someone dying, but it's still an interesting discussion.

Paddy Power gambling has offered 12 to 1 odds on obama being shot.
http://www.gambling911.com/politics/obama-assassination-bet-bad-taste-odds-still-offered-110708.html

Those are excellent odds, unless "Paddy Power" is intending to commit the murder personally, or knows someone who is.


Is the bet in bad taste ?

No bet is in bad taste, unless one of the participants works to bring about a morbid outcome.

do you think the odds are accurate?

No. I think Obama is the type of person who could be assassinated, but 12-1 is excessive.

Also gamblers
trying to confirm which way the odds read. if it is reading i get a pay out of 12X what i put in if he survives I think i will take that bet.

You certainly ought to.


I intend to take the bet, for Obama and America winning. Just cant on paddy power. anyone else know an online booky offering this bet.

No.

That is in deliciously bad taste. I fucking love it.
Not that I'll be betting on Obama's assassination. I don't want to run even the slightest risk of ending up on the list of suspects in such a situation.

Don't forget the Palinstinians who would be dancing out in the streets passing out candy. And then an angry mob beats the crap out of them all for being traitors.

Which is why I hope to god it never happens.

I do not want a Race+Right versus Left Civil War in the future.

If the odds really are that short, they shouldn't be.

Somewhere in the range of 1-in-1000 would be more acceptable. If that means Obama can't appear in public or even sit in the White House, so be it. If he has to move the administration to Yukka Mountain, so be it. His assassination would be a horrendous disaster and not just for the United States.

I don't want to run even the slightest risk of ending up on the list of suspects in such a situation.

You probably get on the list just by placing a bet.

There's been more than a few attempts on Bush and a couple on Clinton, so I'm sure someone will try at some point. I doubt they will succeed though.

Also, fun fact many of more hardcore racists actually endorsed Obama. The thinking being that it'll show White America the depth of Jewish/Black/Communist plot to conquer the world. I find such things amusing.

Actually, given the historical record, those odds are almost spot-on.

The Presidency is the most dangerous job in the United States, with four Presidents having died by assassination. With 44 Presidencies (counting Obama), that's 11-1 odds.

If Obama were assassinated, I would get the frack out of the country before someone starts a race war.

Yes, because all of the people who supported Palin would rejoice at the death of our President.

Not really. I happened to be one of those people who supported her and I certainly wouldn't be rejoicing over something so horrible like that.

Generalizations are bad.

You might be an exception, but given that the Palinstinians were galvanized by her talk of Obama "palling around with terrorists" and probably included amongst their number the likes of the crazy old woman who believed Obama was an Arab and was afraid of him taking office... oh and let's not forget the same crowd who booed Obama and Biden while cheering Palin at McCain's concession speech... I don't have faith in the lot's sanity and civility.

Actually, given the historical record, those odds are almost spot-on.

The Presidency is the most dangerous job in the United States, with four Presidents having died by assassination. With 44 Presidencies (counting Obama), that's 11-1 odds.

I like it when someone else does some thinking. Nice work.
*bows*