NationStates Jolt Archive

Not long ago, in an election prediction thread, Jocabia and I made a bet, about what states would go for Obama. I believed that of the swing states, he would pick up only Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada. He believed that, in addition, he'd get Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina.

Both of us believed Obama would keep all Kerry states, and gain New Mexico and Iowa. As a result, of the 7 swing states, 5 have gone to Obama, and it looks like North Carolina will as well, making his prediction, not mine, pretty dead on accurate, if in fact lowballed since neither of us, at the time, thought he'd take Indiana, which was just called for him.

I also told him that if he were to win this bet, it would be the first time in my life I would, happily, say I was wrong. And I was.

I believed that Ohio and Florida were permanently tilted to the right. I was wrong.

I believed that there was no way we could see both North Carolina AND Virginia vote for a black democrat. I was wrong.

I believed that our nation, as a whole, just wasn't ready for a black man to be president, and that if he won at all, it would be by the skin of his teeth. I was wrong.

I believed that the specter of racism would raise its head, and in the end, a lot of typically conservative areas just couldn't pull the lever for Barack Hussein Obama. I was wrong.

I believed that the tide of undecided voters would break for McCain, since, if they were still undecided, it meant there was some deep seated issues with voting for a figure like Obama. I was wrong.

In short, I underestimated America's capacity for tolerance and its ability to see beyond racial lines, and I have never been more happy to admit that I was wrong.

But, for every bit of joy comes sorrow. I didn't believe, I truly did not believe that California of all places, would write discrimination and regression into their constitution. I guess I was wrong about that too.

But, for every bit of joy comes sorrow. I didn't believe, I truly did not believe that California of all places, would write discrimination and regression into their constitution. I guess I was wrong about that too.

... Wha?

I'm surprised Prop 8 passed, in California of all places....I blame that horrible YouTube video of the singing oriental children!

But, for every bit of joy comes sorrow. I didn't believe, I truly did not believe that California of all places, would write discrimination and regression into their constitution. I guess I was wrong about that too.

People never take into account Southern California-look, it's only hippies and activists on the north coast - inland, south, it's just like anywhere else. Plus, the no people, me included, got complacent and didn't see the $25 million in Mormon cash coming for the Yes effort and didn't catch up, well, ever.

It's a dark cloud in what is otherwise a magical election.

Nobodies always right, at least you can be happy to say you were wrong though!

As far as Prop 8 is concerned, it's all Religious...no way am I delving into that but it's just the church using its power to oppress us even more.

This is one of few times that someone has admitted defeat on NSG. Mark that one up. At least it's mostly a good thing that you were wrong, NA. Mostly.

Feels great, doesn't it, Neo? :D

Except for that California part. That sucks. But oh well, every silver lining has a cloud. We'll just have to keep fighting on that front.

I was wrong too. I never thought Indiana would turn, went to bed last night knowing Obama had won the election, but thinking he'd lose Indiana. I must say I'm greatly relieved the Democratic party managed to pull off a win. Too stressful to deal with another loss.

Pardon my ignorance but what's Prop 8?

I have no idea how american politics work. :p

Feels great, doesn't it, Neo? :D

Except for that California part. That sucks. But oh well, every silver lining has a cloud. We'll just have to keep fighting on that front.

the thing is, I think it will motivate the legislature to put in same sex civil unions.

Pardon my ignorance but what's Prop 8?

Here's a little story...


A long time ago, there was a proposition, 200 something, and it, too banned gay marriage. Inexplicably, it passed while its ballot brother, medical marijuana passed. Go figure.

But then a handsome mayor of a town where other men were, lets say prone to having a crush on him, said, "This is stupid. Fuck that shit, I'm gonna let gays and lesbians marry-try and fucking stop me!" And the state did. And it went to court. And then appeal, and appeal, and then to the state supreme court which said, "You know what, this ban is unconstitutional."

But the bigots were ready, for they knew that it was so. They had already gathered signatures for a new proposition, numbered 8, that amended that mean ol' state constitution to make discrimination part of the state constitution-and since California inexplicably has a low bar (simple majority) for amending its fucking constitution, they cashed a $25 million dollar check from Utah Mormons and started telling the whole fucking state that without prop 8, the gays were gonna gay marry your kids.

And apparently, 52% of us bought it.

Fuck.

I was pleasantly surprised that Florida went blue (:D) but saddened that amendment 2 to ban gay marriage passed with 62% of the vote. I thought it would get more than 50% but was hoping that it would get less than the 60% it needed to pass, so I was wrong about that. :(

Heh, yer back. How's tricks?

I was pleasantly surprised that Florida went blue (:D) but saddened that amendment 2 to ban gay marriage passed with 62% of the vote. I thought it would get more than 50% but was hoping that it would get less than the 60% it needed to pass, so I was wrong about that. :(

Chandy-chan!!:fluffle:

But, for every bit of joy comes sorrow. I didn't believe, I truly did not believe that California of all places, would write discrimination and regression into their constitution. I guess I was wrong about that too.

What are the odds, though, that the California State Supreme Court will once again rule that the ban is unconstitutional?

In short, I underestimated America's capacity for tolerance and its ability to see beyond racial lines, and I have never been more happy to admit that I was wrong.
Good on you for admitting it. To be honest, many of us had similar worries, and it was only an irrational faith in the ability of people to occasionally do the right thing that kept me from doom and gloom myself.

It's worth noting that occasionally, of course, since not everything worked out as would be ideal, but hey, can't expect miracles all the time.

What are the odds, though, that the California State Supreme Court will once again rule that the ban is unconstitutional?

0. Don't confuse proposition 22 with proposition 8. Proposition 22 was a ballot initiative law. Basically law passed by the people. The state supreme court found that the law passed ran counter to the state constitution, and thus, could not stand.

Proposition 8, on the other hand, is actually amending the constitution. Proposition 22 failed because it was just a law, and thus, bound by the state constitution. Proposition 8 actually is changing the state constitution.

What are the odds, though, that the California State Supreme Court will once again rule that the ban is unconstitutional?

They kinda can't. Prop 8 changed the state constitution under which a ban on gay marriage was unconstitutional.


On that note, does Prop 8 ban gay marriage, or just make a ban permissible under the Cali constitution?

Prop 8 defines marriage as being between a man and a woman (almost exact language, lamest prop for actually going over what it legally does, not even one paragraph), so no, it doesn't "ban" per-say, but it does make it impossible.

how does shit like prop 8 get through??? i mean really!

I predicted that Obama would overperform and McCain underperform the polls, by about O+3, M-4 with heavy 3rd party vote-- none of that happened.
I gave Obama all "blue" states (Gore and/or Kerry), more narrowly all "purple" states (FL, OH, VA, CO, NV), and-- with my expected poll shift-- all "white" states (NC, IN, MO, MT, ND), plus WV and Omaha among the "pinks". I was wrong about West Virginia (just a brief flash in the pan of Obama surge last month), Montana and North Dakota (Ron Paul voters decided to go for McCain at the end; part of my error in overestimating 3rd party protest votes), and might still be wrong about Missouri and Omaha (too close to call, even now). All in all, not bad.

Proposition 8, though, drained all the joy out of the night.

Chandy-chan!!:fluffle:

Hi! :D

Heh, yer back. How's tricks?

Uhh...pretty good. I need to make an effort to stop tripping down staircases and accidentally running into walls though. :(

Not long ago, in an election prediction thread, Jocabia and I made a bet, about what states would go for Obama. I believed that of the swing states, he would pick up only Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada. He believed that, in addition, he'd get Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina.

Both of us believed Obama would keep all Kerry states, and gain New Mexico and Iowa. As a result, of the 7 swing states, 5 have gone to Obama, and it looks like North Carolina will as well, making his prediction, not mine, pretty dead on accurate, if in fact lowballed since neither of us, at the time, thought he'd take Indiana, which was just called for him.

I also told him that if he were to win this bet, it would be the first time in my life I would, happily, say I was wrong. And I was.

I believed that Ohio and Florida were permanently tilted to the right. I was wrong.

I believed that there was no way we could see both North Carolina AND Virginia vote for a black democrat. I was wrong.

I believed that our nation, as a whole, just wasn't ready for a black man to be president, and that if he won at all, it would be by the skin of his teeth. I was wrong.

I believed that the specter of racism would raise its head, and in the end, a lot of typically conservative areas just couldn't pull the lever for Barack Hussein Obama. I was wrong.

I believed that the tide of undecided voters would break for McCain, since, if they were still undecided, it meant there was some deep seated issues with voting for a figure like Obama. I was wrong.

In short, I underestimated America's capacity for tolerance and its ability to see beyond racial lines, and I have never been more happy to admit that I was wrong.

But, for every bit of joy comes sorrow. I didn't believe, I truly did not believe that California of all places, would write discrimination and regression into their constitution. I guess I was wrong about that too.

When I voted yesterday, I pulled no levers. CT went to optical ballot scanning, so all I did was fill in the ovals for the people I was voting for, and put the paper into the scanner.

Of course, I voted for Nader, because I want a third party (I'm hoping if there's 3 parties with a legitimate shot at winning, we might actually start getting better candidates in all 3 parties).

But, for every bit of joy comes sorrow. I didn't believe, I truly did not believe that California of all places, would write discrimination and regression into their constitution. I guess I was wrong about that too.
Let's all remember this for the next election, when someone starts yabberin' about the "California liberals".

Let's also remember the dire warnings about Obama that's given now, how he'll destroy America, make it socialist, tear off his cape and shout "YOU FOOLS! I AM A MUSLIM!! MUHAHAH!" and institute Sharia law as federal law, and all that jazz. Let's bring them all back in four years, and in eight and so on and so forth, and let's teach the morons about the idiocy of scaremongering!




Uhh...pretty good. I need to make an effort to stop tripping down staircases and accidentally running into walls though. :(
:tongue::fluffle:

Wow, just wow. You win an internet, my friend.

I don't know how to handle the anger I feel over this prop 8 crap.

I pledge to fight as hard as I can to help remove that piece of shit legislation. ARGH! ANGRY! SMASH!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What are the odds, though, that the California State Supreme Court will once again rule that the ban is unconstitutional?

There is none. This ban changes the constitution of California. As it is part of the constitution, it cannot, by definition, be unconstitutional (unless it is found to violate the US constitution)




Now, I was listening to the radio (admittedly, not the most reputable show for news), and someone called in to say that ballot initiatives can effectively be ignored by the state legislators. Is this true?



This does worry me about the future of gay marriage in MA and CT...though, as a whole, both states are actually probably more liberal than CA (CT about on par, MA much more liberal)

:tongue::fluffle:

:$ Seriously, though, my knees are bruised. I didn't notice that before. :(

There is none. This ban changes the constitution of California. As it is part of the constitution, it cannot, by definition, be unconstitutional (unless it is found to violate the US constitution)
I've read something odd, to the effect that the California constitution itself makes a distinction between "amendment" to the constitution (can be placed on the ballot by petition, as this one was) and "revision" of the constitution (must be placed on the ballot by the legislature), and therefore that Prop 8 may be unconstitutional because it is a "revision" and "amendment" by nature. I am not sure if I am stating the legal quibble correctly, but apparently it is indeed going to the courts, and I hope the lawyers have fun.