NationStates Jolt Archive

This thread is about your predictions as for which electoral votes each candidate will get.

NA and I were arguing which state we think will go which way, mostly in an effort to secure bragging rights. The next post will give our predictions v one another.

NOTE: There are several other threads for debating the candidates. This is about the electoral and which why you think they'll go and why. I think distinct predictions will be fun.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

Predictions so far:

Obama to Win
Grave N Idle: 270 to 268
Jello B: 272 to 266
Caprecia: 273 to 265
Shofercia: 277 to 261
Dumb Ideologies: 280 to 258
Hotwife: 285 to 253
Zombie PotatoHeads: 286 to 252
Neo Art: 291 to 247
Vaarshire: 298 to 240
Dragontide: 302 to 236
Luizzo: 302 to 236
Fartsniffage: 302 to 236
Quintessence of Dust: 308 to 230
Daistallia 2104: 309 to 229
Knights of Liberty: 311 to 227
Deus Malum: 313 to 225
Eofaerwic: 313 to 225
Sarzonia: 315 to 223
Lunatic Goofbalss: 316 to 222
Whereyouthinkyougoing: 316 to 222
Arroza: 317 to 221
(2)Whereyouthinkyougoing: 319 to 219
DaWoad: 320 to 218
Aceopolis: 322 to 216
Maraque: 323 to 215
[NS]Cerean: 326 to 212
Sarkhaan: 333 to 205
Kiryu: 337 to 201
(2)Maineiacs: 338 to 200
Gravlen: 338 to 200
Forsakia: 340 to 198
New Manvir: 349 to 189
Copsia Scotia: 349 to 189
Free Soviets: 353 to 185
Jocabia: 354 to 184
Sumamba Buwhan: 357 to 181
Miroxia: 360 to 178
Fleckenstein: 364 to 174
Heikoku 2: 364 to 174
Ermarian: 364 to 174
Gavin: 364 to 174
Kyronea: 364 to 174
Fonzica: 375 to 163
South Lorenya: 380 to 158
Delator: 380 to 158
TJHairball: 382 to 156
Tmutarakhan: 387 to 151
Ferrous Oxide: 538 to 0

McCain to Win
Zilam: 272 to 266
MacEnthailand: 273 to 265
CanuckHeaven: 275 to 263
Maineiacs: 279 to 259

Tie:
Black Forrest Gump

http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showpost.php?p=14091186&postcount=20

Im thinking Obama will get roughly 300ish and McCain will get the rest.

I call edge!

I'v been looking at CNN and Yahoo poltical dashboards actually. CNN seems to be really conservative about the whole thing and guesses at around 250 to 260ish for Obama and that McCain about 175ish definate. But they figure Obama may pick up the toss ups and win anyway.

Yahoo seems to estimate that Obama has about 335 or so. And the Republicans are getting more and more squrimish. But as someone has said in the past:

It's the Economy Stupid....

I figure Obama will probably win around in the 300s.

But keeping my fingers crossed.

Obama: Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and the District of Columbia (264 E.V.s)

McCain: Alaska, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina (174 E.V.s)

Therefore this leaves 7 “swing” states: Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida (100 E.V.s)

We BOTH feel that McCain will win Missouri, and it’s 11 E.V.s, bringing him up to 185.

So here’s the bet. Jocabia feels that he will win the remaining 6 “swing” states, making the final Tally 353 to 185. In addition, since Nebraska divided their E.V.s by proportion, Jocabia things that Obama will get one of Nebraska’s votes, making the final total 354 to 184.

I on the other hand am less optimistic. I believe Obama will win Colorado and Nevada. McCain will win North Carolina and Missouri. This will bring the tally, there, to 278 to 200. Of the remaining 3 swing states, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida, I believe that Obama will win one of them, I can’t figure out which. This will make the final count for Obama somewhere between 291 and 305 and McCain somewhere between 233 and 247. If I HAD to chose which one of the three Obama will win, I say Virginia. Making my prediction 291 to 247.

So, our final predictions:

Jocabia: Obama wins all of the ones above, plus Nevada, Colorado, Virigina, Ohio, North Carolina and Florida, plus one from Nebraska. 354 to 184.

Neo Art: Obama wins all of the ones above, plus Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia. McCain takes all of Nebraska. 291 to 247.

Thus our bet, in general, splitting the middle, is whether Obama breaks 320. If he comes between 270 and 320 I "win", if he breaks 320, Jocabia "wins". If he gets below 270, we all lose.

I will also stress that while this is a "bet" the winning person gets only bragging rights. No money is to change hands, as betting on the outcome of a presidential election is a federal offense.

My moneys on the fat guy.

I won´t venture to make any predictions, I´m not American. But I do hope Barrack Obama wins. McCain´s bad crazy!!! Besides, the US needs a fresh start, and for what I´ve read (and I must admit is not a lot), Obama seems to bring what that country needs.

I will also stress that while this is a "bet" the winning person gets only bragging rights. No money is to change hands, as betting on the outcome of a presidential election is a federal offense.

That's new. I think I could see why.

Im throwing my hat into the ring. I agree with McCan getting Missouri. However, I think Obama will win Virginia and Ohio, with Florida going McCain. I also think Obama will get Nevada and Colorado.

Obama: All of the above plus Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada
McCain: All of the above plus Florida and Missouri

Obama: 290
McCain: 248

Thats my bet.

Someone's math is way off. If you agree with me, but believe Obama will also win Ohio, then he SHOULD be at 311. 264 + 5 (nevada) +9 (colorado) + 13 (virginia) + 20 (ohio)

I think The Atlantian Islands will get 526.

McCain will get 0

Obama will get 0

Kerry will get 12 (Mass)

First order of business I invest all of our money into Resurrection Devolpment.

Second order of business we resurrect Thomas Jefferson and Ben Franklin.

Third order of business, I resign and Jefferson and Franklin run as a ticket for the New Independence Party.

They win, heavily. As a gesture of their good faith for resurrecting them from the dead, they appoint me United States Secretary of State.

The world enters a new Golden Age, which America ushers in.

Islamic terrorists become instantly paralized, solar energy replaces all former forms of energy, Putin gets eaten by a tiger, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia, Venezuela and many other middle eastern countries collapse due to lack of oil sales.

Cancer is cured.

Africa, unfortunatly though not unexpectedly, still sucks.

Here are my least sure predictions, just for clarity.

Potentail shifts against McCain (in order of likelihood):
IN
MO
WV
ND

Potential movement away from Obama (in order of likelihood):
NC
VA
OH
FL

Incidentally, even with all of those moves favoring McCain, Obama wins.

I also, get ready for it, yeah, he's gonna say it, predict Texas will be within what would be a normal margin of error for a poll, a few points in McCain's direction.

My reasoning for being so optomistic is that this election is looking so far out of hand that I think there will be a rebel vote for Barr. I expect there are certain states where this will be most prevelant and they will likely be states that are traditionally very, very red, e.g. Texas and Montana. Keep in mind that really devout Republicans tend not to like McCain very much.

Also, if I'm betting which direction it's most likely to move from where I have it, I'm putting it heading even further away from McCain. Based on the above.

My moneys on the fat guy.
A surprise victory for zombie Taft, who returns for a second term after a nearly century long hiatus.
His campaign slogan: "A metaphor for our times. Also, braaaaaaiiiiiinnnnnnss, delicious deep-fried peanut butter and brrraaaaaiiiinnnnnnssss sandwiches."

Im throwing my hat into the ring. I agree with McCan getting Missouri. However, I think Obama will win Virginia and Ohio, with Florida going McCain. I also think Obama will get Nevada and Colorado.

Obama: All of the above plus Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada
McCain: All of the above plus Florida and Missouri

Obama: 292
McCain: 246

I guess that makes me more in line with Neo Art.

Thats my bet.

I wouldn't bet on that...the state seems to be going to Obama.....though it's far from for sure.

Im throwing my hat into the ring. I agree with McCan getting Missouri. However, I think Obama will win Virginia and Ohio, with Florida going McCain. I also think Obama will get Nevada and Colorado.

Obama: All of the above plus Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada plus one from Nebraska
McCain: All of the above plus Florida and Missouri

Obama: 292
McCain: 246

I guess that makes me more in line with Neo Art.

Thats my bet.


Use this - http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

Your math is screwy.

313 to 225

Someone's math is way off. If you agree with me, but believe Obama will also win Ohio, then he SHOULD be at 311. 264 + 5 (nevada) +9 (colorado) + 13 (virginia) + 20 (ohio)
Use this - http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

Your math is screwy.



Yeah, my math whas horridly off. Ive since edited.

A surprise victory for zombie Taft, who returns for a second term after a nearly century long hiatus.
His campaign slogan: "A metaphor for our times. Also, braaaaaaiiiiiinnnnnnss, delicious deep-fried peanut butter and brrraaaaaiiiinnnnnnssss sandwiches."

He's got my vote. :D

Alright, I'll be editing this post as more people add their posts. From lowest to highest:

Obama to Win
Grave N Idle: 270 to 268
Shofercia: 277 to 261
Dumb Ideologies: 280 to 258
Zombie PotatoHeads: 286 to 252
Neo Art: 291 to 247
Vaarshire: 298 to 240
Dragontide 302 to 236
Daistallia 2104: 309 to 229
Knights of Liberty: 311 to 227
Deus Malum: 313 to 225
Aceopolis: 322 to 216
[NS]Cerean: 326 to 212
New Manvir: 349 to 189
Eofaerwic: 350 to 188
Jocabia: 354 to 184
Fleckenstein: 364 to 174
Fonzica: 375 to 163

McCain to Win
Zilam: 272 to 266
CanuckHeaven: 275 to 263
Maineiacs: 279 to 259

KoL, your math still doesn't match with your predictions.

Which of the "swing" states do you think Obama will win, and do you think McCain/Obama will lose any of the states we projected he'd win? Right now it's Obama 264 to mcCain 174 with Ohio (20) Florida (27), Colorado (9), Nevada (5), Missouri (11), North Carolina (15) and Virgina (13). Where do you see those going, and do you think that states predicted Obama/McCain will change?

All I know is that Obama WILL win.:(

272-266 in favor of McCain. I have this sneaky suspicion that something is about to happen in the last few weeks to have him pull out that edge. :(

I suspect the election will involve substantial voter fraud by the GOP, leaving the actual numbers heavilly disputed on the 5th.

There we go.

hio, Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina Nevada plus one from Nebraska

If you think Obama will win Ohio, Virgina, Colorado, North Carolina, Nevada and one from Nebraska that gives him:

264 + 20 + 13 + 9 + 15 + 5 + 1 = 327

Is that your prediction? 327 to 211?

272-268 in favor of mccain. I have this sneaky suspicion that something is about to happen in the last few weeks to have him pull out that edge. :(

272?

There we go.

You're still off. Are you sure you're not giving Ohio to McCain on your map? Because that's the only way to match the numbers.

272-268 in favor of McCain. I have this sneaky suspicion that something is about to happen in the last few weeks to have him pull out that edge. :(

Your numbers don't match. If you think McCain gets 272 than Obama gets 266.

hio, Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina Nevada plus one from Nebraska

If you think Obama will win Ohio, Virgina, Colorado, North Carolina, Nevada and one from Nebraska that gives him:

264 + 20 + 13 + 9 + 15 + 5 + 1 = 327

Is that your prediction? 327 to 211?

Sure. We'll go with that. I used the map for my numbers and I guess its fucked up.

My prediction is Obama gets 327.


EDIT: Wow. I fail at life. I misclicked on the map. Yes. My prediciton. Obama 327, McCain 211

272-268 in favor of McCain. I have this sneaky suspicion that something is about to happen in the last few weeks to have him pull out that edge. :(

Like voter fraud or a "lone gunman"(God forbid).

Their are powerful, corrupt, and bigoted people backing the Republican campaing. I just don't trust the party of legalized torture, contempt of Congress, and the removal of so many Constitutional rights (not to mention previous allegations of voter fraud) to leave power because the law says they have to. They've already turned to stirring up the rascist mob.

Pray and hope for the best, but this could get really ugly.

Your numbers don't match. If you think McCain gets 272 than Obama gets 266.

Oh maybe I meant to type 266 then. Sorry. :)

I predict Obama 270; McCain 268.

Because I'm a cynic.

NV, CO, MO, OH, NC, IA, FL - all go Red.

VA goes Blue.

...because I think Americans are going to vote from fear, again.


I wish I didn't think that. I can totally see how all the swingstates could go blue, and Obama could take ND and GA, too (for a 382/156 win)... but I don't think they will. I think we're going to grind down to a really tight race in the last couple of days, and it'll be even tighter on the day itself, because people will vote against all the stupid shit they're eharing now and discounting... but it will hang in their minds.

I still think Obama will just get it... but by about a mouses-tail.

349 - Obama
189 - McCain

based off of this site

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

I predict Obama 270; McCain 268.

Because I'm a cynic.

NV, CO, MO, OH, NC, IA, FL - all go Red.

VA goes Blue.

...because I think Americans are going to vote from fear, again.


I wish I didn't think that. I can totally see how all the swingstates could go blue, and Obama could take ND and GA, too (for a 382/156 win)... but I don't think they will. I think we're going to grind down to a really tight race in the last couple of days, and it'll be even tighter on the day itself, because people will vote against all the stupid shit they're eharing now and discounting... but it will hang in their minds.

I still think Obama will just get it... but by about a mouses-tail.


I think people will be voting from fear too, especially after seeing that video of the crazies talking to John McCain. He has created a monster, and it will destroy us.

I predict Obama 270; McCain 268.

Because I'm a cynic.

NV, CO, MO, OH, NC, IA, FL - all go Red.

VA goes Blue.

...because I think Americans are going to vote from fear, again.

Your math is off. If VA goes blue and Obama doesn't lose any states, he gets 277 and McCain 261

I predict Obama 270; McCain 268.

Because I'm a cynic.

NV, CO, MO, OH, NC, IA, FL - all go Red.

VA goes Blue.

...because I think Americans are going to vote from fear, again.


I wish I didn't think that. I can totally see how all the swingstates could go blue, and Obama could take ND and GA, too (for a 382/156 win)... but I don't think they will. I think we're going to grind down to a really tight race in the last couple of days, and it'll be even tighter on the day itself, because people will vote against all the stupid shit they're eharing now and discounting... but it will hang in their minds.

I still think Obama will just get it... but by about a mouses-tail.

If its close, a few paper-trail less electronic voting machines will ensure the "Right" candadite wins.

322 Obama
216 McCain

edit:

Obama gets:

NV
CO
MO
VA

McCain gets:

IN
NC
FL

If its close, a few paper-trail less electronic voting machines will ensure the "Right" candadite wins.

*sigh* People like you, I really just don't understand...

Your math is off. If VA goes blue and Obama doesn't lose any states, he gets 277 and McCain 261

Look again - I have IA going Red (from Blue).

High bid.

Obama 364 McCain 164

Obama - WA OR NV CA CO NM MO MN IA WI IL MI OH ME NH MA VT CT RI NY PA NJ DE MD DC VA NC FL HI

McCain - ID MT ND SD UT AZ AK AL MS LA GA TN SC AR TX OK WV KY IN KS NE

High bid.

Obama 364 McCain 164

Obama - WA OR NV CA CO NM MO MN IA WI IL MI OH ME NH MA VT CT RI NY PA NJ DE MD DC VA NC FL HI

McCain - ID MT ND SD UT AZ AK AL MS LA GA TN SC AR TX OK WV KY IN KS NE

ND is (as unlikely as it seems) close to a tossup.

Look again - I have IA going Red (from Blue).

Quite right, I saw that as "IN" sorry.

Quite right, I saw that as "IN" sorry.

Heh... yeah. I wish I didn't.... but I think they can swing IA again.

ND is (as unlikely as it seems) close to a tossup.

Along with WV and GA, but they're too solidly Republican to actually switch. At least that's how I see it.

Along with WV and GA, but they're too solidly Republican to actually switch. At least that's how I see it.

Tempted to agree. ND is very close, though... if the mood was right.

Georgia I hadn't even considered till I saw it shift 6% in, maybe, 10 days... and it only needs to shift another 9% in the next three weeks.

Tempted to agree. ND is very close, though... if the mood was right.

Georgia I hadn't even considered till I saw it shift 6% in, maybe, 10 days... and it only needs to shift another 9% in the next three weeks.

Obama is almost literally running out of independents to switch. The only people left are bottom of the barrel undecided racists. Odds are they come home to McCain. I think his upward movement has either hit or come really close to the ceiling.

High bid.

Obama 364 McCain 164

you're missing 10 points. You mean McCain 174?

ND is (as unlikely as it seems) close to a tossup.

Dammit, I meant ND not MT. Lemme go fix that.

I want to see some predictions from the people pulling for McCain?

CanuckHeaven, The Smiling Frogs, where are you?

I want to see some predictions from the people pulling for McCain?

CanuckHeaven, The Smiling Frogs, where are you?

They wont post because they dont want a paper trail for us to call them on it when they lose.

Obama 326- McTaint 212.
In a more rational country Mctaint and his nutter wouldn't get Perot numbers.

Nader 538.

Obama to win 302 to 236

I want to see some predictions from the people pulling for McCain?

CanuckHeaven, The Smiling Frogs, where are you?

No doubt there will be some 'soaring..'

*sigh* People like you, I really just don't understand...

Care to explain? If an organization has a history of semi-legal to downright criminal behavior even when they're ahead, why should we expect differently when the reverse is the case?

Cerean;14091530']Obama 326- McTaint 212.
In a more rational country Mctaint and his nutter wouldn't get Perot numbers.

In a more rational country Perot wouldn't get Perot numbers.;)

you're missing 10 points. You mean McCain 174?

Yeah. Thanks. I used the CNN calculator, but I must have typed the wrong thing.

Alright, I'll be editing this post as more people add their posts. From lowest to highest:

Obama to Win
Neo Art: 291 to 247
Knights of Liberty: 311 to 227
Deus Malum: 327 to 211
New Manvir: 349 to 189
Jocabia: 354 to 184


McCain to Win
Zilam: 272 to 266

My numbers are actually 313 and 225.

I've been tracking this since the primaries, and before this week I would have said a near landslide for Obama at 353-185. With ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, PA, DE, MD, DC, VA, NC, FL, OH, MI, WI, IL, IA, MN, CO, NM, NV, CA, OR, WA, and HI going to Obama while McCain had SC, GA, AL, MS, TN, KY, WV, IN, MO, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, AR, LA, TX, AZ, UT, WY, MT, ID, and AK.

It will be a few days until the polls reflect the repercussions of the "He's a terrorist, kill him!" mentality that's been sweeping through McCain's supporters. My best guess at this point is that Obama can kiss anything south of the Potomac, as well as OH, CO, NM, and NV goodbye. McCain wins 279-259 and I will be spending the next four years very, very drunk so I don't have to deal with it. The racism and violence McCain has deliberately released cannot be stopped at this point; it's already too late. If by some chance Obama does win, some ignorant redneck will make sure he doesn't live to see ingauguration day.

I reckon something around about this: Obama 280 McCain 258

Obama wins 277 to 261 that's my bet

Then McCain and Repubs rig election again, but this time Americans are tired of it, and there's a revolution. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7CStvwUOAg

McCain 275 Obama 263

GOP loses NM, and IA, and GOP gets 1 ECV in ME.

McCain 275 Obama 263

GOP loses NM, and IA, and GOP gets 1 ECV in NH.

New Hampshire doesn't split its electoral vote. Only Maine and Nebraska do.

New Hampshire doesn't split its electoral vote. Only Maine and Nebraska do.
I meant Maine......the reason I typed NH, is that McCain has polled close there. Thanks for the correction.

I meant Maine......the reason I typed NH, is that McCain has polled close there. Thanks for the correction.

Unfortunately, you may be right. The 2nd district (where I live) is more conservative than the 1st district.

Based off the most recent predictions of fivethirtyeight.com, because I consider their methodology to be statistically sound I would say
Obama: 350
McCain: 188

However, allowing for a margin of error, not to mention dodgy voting practices and possible last minutes gains from McCain I'd say:

Obama: 313
McCain: 225

IF McCain stages some sort of crazy comeback and manages to make the race close again (and races always tighten towards the end, unless it's a total blowout) then conservatively I'll say 284/297 Obama with Virginia being the variable there, meaning that the only pick ups are New Mexico and Ohio. Which is to say that this is the lowest result I can see.

However, there is one more debate left and it's on the topic that has been thundering McCain and the debates so far have not helped McCain at all. Plus, the last three weeks have generally been a good period for Obama's organization and the grass roots might very much make the difference, which could result in a landslide, with Obama at 393 picking up upsets in GA and MS as well as Montana and all the other leaners.

That's a long shot, and kinda cheap to just say "Somewhere between close or a blowout!" (thanks Kreskin!), I'll make it either or. Last we looked in there were seven states that could sway this thing and Obama only had to win one of them to win, the attacks just aren't getting enough traction to make it all that likely that McCain will suddenly figure out a way to turn around all seven states, even when 'all' he has to do is play defense (in that they were 'red states,' not because he's ahead-he's not).

NV, CO, MO, and OH to Obama
VA, NC, and FL to McCain

309-229 to Obama



I also, get ready for it, yeah, he's gonna say it, predict Texas will be within what would be a normal margin of error for a poll, a few points in McCain's direction.

My reasoning for being so optomistic is that this election is looking so far out of hand that I think there will be a rebel vote for Barr. I expect there are certain states where this will be most prevelant and they will likely be states that are traditionally very, very red, e.g. Texas and Montana. Keep in mind that really devout Republicans tend not to like McCain very much.

Interesting, interesting...

Based off the most recent predictions of fivethirtyeight.com, because I consider their methodology to be statistically sound I would say
Obama: 350
McCain: 188

He hasn't factored in the upswing of racial hatred coming from McCain's supporters. I very much fear that it has had a disastrous effect on Obama's campaign, and that the longer it goes without being addressed adequately, the worse it'll be.

He hasn't factored in the upswing of racial hatred coming from McCain's supporters. I very much fear that it has had a disastrous effect on Obama's campaign, and that the longer it goes without being addressed adequately, the worse it'll be.

If anything it'll push away the indepenants. It's not like the people who buy that shit were ever going to go for Obama anyway.

He hasn't factored in the upswing of racial hatred coming from McCain's supporters. I very much fear that it has had a disastrous effect on Obama's campaign, and that the longer it goes without being addressed adequately, the worse it'll be.

I really think that's going to shift the EV count, frankly. Independents are fleeing and some of his GOP friends are complaining that he's not the candidate they endorsed.

He hasn't factored in the upswing of racial hatred coming from McCain's supporters. I very much fear that it has had a disastrous effect on Obama's campaign, and that the longer it goes without being addressed adequately, the worse it'll be.

I don't think it'll have as much an effect as you think. It's not like anyone's sitting around going "well, I thought he had a sensible economic position, a strong command of the problem, and valuable insights into the American condition, but wow, I never noticed before, he IS a ******"

Obama with the following: NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, DE, NY, PA, NJ, MD, DC, MI, OH, WI, MN, IA, CO, NM, WA, OR, CA, NV, HI and ME
McCain with the following: WV, VA, NC, SC, GA, FL, IN, KY, TN, AL, MS, MO, AR, LA, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MT, WY, ID, UT, AZ, and Palin-Land

This puts it at: Obama 298, McCain 240

With only 3 weeks to go, Obama well in front in the polls, Palin dogged by the panel's verdict that she abused her gubernatorial power and the US economy bleeding from a thousand deregulated wounds, it may well be Obama but not by as much as people think.
There are a lot of undecideds out there who don't like the message of change - especially those who are nervous that for the first time in history an African American will be in the "White" House.
The rest of the world is rooting for you Barack!

Okay. I'm going to go conservative here and say Obama gets 286 votes, McCain 252.
Of course, if Obama wins FL., NV., and OH. (in which he is leading by 6%, 4% and 3% respectively) it becomes a landslide: 338 to 200.

We BOTH feel that McCain will win Missouri, and it’s 11 E.V.s, bringing him up to 185.


It may just be wishful thinking on my part, but I don't think he will.

Here's my reasoning, as a Missourian:

The thing with Missouri is that we're a weirdly accurate little microcosm of the country as a whole - which is why the commentators watch us very closely each election; as the "bellwether state," not only has the winner in Missouri won the general election something like every election but one in the past 100 years, but they actually tend to win it by roughly the same proportion of the vote.

Now, the way Missouri votes tends to break down pretty simply. The greater St. Louis area goes strongly Democratic. The rural areas roughly cancel them out by going strongly Republican. And the greater Kansas City area either leans slightly blue or slightly red, and which one it does tends to determine who wins the state.

Now, Obama leading the national polls would be enough to make me suspect that he will take Missouri, but I'm basing this less on that and more on the atmosphere in Kansas City, where I live, and what I'm seeing there is more and more people getting fed up with Republicans. Every week it seems like more Obama signs appear in yards, but the McCain signs have barely increased at all. I've noticed relatives of mine who have always been staunch conservatives starting to complain about "politicians" instead of "Democrats." Admittedly, I'm just one person, and this is only anecdotal evidence, and very probably colored by my own biases - but I feel like KC is leaning towards Obama, and if it does, the state will follow.

(Plus, y'know, I can testify to at least one Missourian who's planning to contact the Obama campaign next week and see if there's any way she can help convince undecided folks. Clearly, this will make a huge difference... ;) )

My prediction is that Obama will get at least 375. Giving Obama a 'landslide' victory. 538 gives this outcome a 35.24% chance of happening.

Good on you Pollly. One thing is for sure - Americans doing some serious thinking about their government and what they want is a beautiful thing.

Even if Mc Cain wins, American democracy will have done its job. But I agree with you. Anecdotal evidence in a swing state is as valid as anything else at the moment.

It may just be wishful thinking on my part, but I don't think he will.

Here's my reasoning, as a Missourian:

The thing with Missouri is that we're a weirdly accurate little microcosm of the country as a whole - which is why the commentators watch us very closely each election; as the "bellwether state," not only has the winner in Missouri won the general election something like every election but one in the past 100 years, but they actually tend to win it by roughly the same proportion of the vote.

Now, the way Missouri votes tends to break down pretty simply. The greater St. Louis area goes strongly Democratic. The rural areas roughly cancel them out by going strongly Republican. And the greater Kansas City area either leans slightly blue or slightly red, and which one it does tends to determine who wins the state.

Now, Obama leading the national polls would be enough to make me suspect that he will take Missouri, but I'm basing this less on that and more on the atmosphere in Kansas City, where I live, and what I'm seeing there is more and more people getting fed up with Republicans. Every week it seems like more Obama signs appear in yards, but the McCain signs have barely increased at all. I've noticed relatives of mine who have always been staunch conservatives starting to complain about "politicians" instead of "Democrats." Admittedly, I'm just one person, and this is only anecdotal evidence, and very probably colored by my own biases - but I feel like KC is leaning towards Obama, and if it does, the state will follow.

(Plus, y'know, I can testify to at least one Missourian who's planning to contact the Obama campaign next week and see if there's any way she can help convince undecided folks. Clearly, this will make a huge difference... ;) )

What's your specific prediction? You don't get out of here any easier than Canuck.

I've missed the chance for an independent prediction, as mine follows New Manvir's. Obama 349, McCain 189.

Obama wins the Kerry states plus Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

McCain wins the rest, barely holding Indiana, North Carolina, and the Omaha district.

I'm an optimist, so I predict Obama will win 380-158.

Keep in mind that we have another three weeks for Sarah Palin to do foolish, counterproductive things.

What's your specific prediction? You don't get out of here any easier than Canuck.

Gimme a little time to research the political climate in the other swing states, and I'll get back to you. :tongue:

I'm an optimist, so I predict Obama will win 380-158.

Keep in mind that we have another three weeks for Sarah Palin to do foolish, counterproductive things.
we can only hope.
And McCain to lose it a la Jack Nicholson in A Few Good Men. Or better yet a Queeg Caine Mutiny moment.

Obama wins, 272 to 266. It will be a victory for him, but not nearly as big of a one as many are predicting.

Obama: 364
McCain: 174

None of the battleground states has recently swung toward McCain, but many have changed in favor of Obama, so my estimate is based on Obama getting all states he currently leads in, plus Missouri, where McCain is leading by the smallest margin currently.

I called edge at the beginning of the thread, right? If a tie amounts to losing the coin, edge is the chance of a third party candidate winning. So, 295 for a third party, 151 for Obama, and 92 for McCain. I'd explain it but the calculator doesn't have a 3rd choice.

Ermarian;14093103']Obama: 364
McCain: 174

None of the battleground states has recently swung toward McCain, but many have changed in favor of Obama, so my estimate is based on Obama getting all states he currently leads in, plus Missouri, where McCain is leading by the smallest margin currently.

Not necessaryly correct, Nevada is a messed up swing state. It's swung over ever so slightly back to McCain. But what can I say about my fellow Nevadians, they are a bit confused in the head.

A tie! 269-269!

:p

my median guess is obama 353-185, assuming the world stops now. but i'd go as high as 383-155 if the invisible hand keeps molesting people so noticeably and mccain continues his campaign-by-ill-thought-out-stunt strategy.

Obama 316, McCain 222.

Obama 317:
McCain 221:

Bradley Effect delivers N.C., Indiana and Nevada to McCain, Obama takes Ohio, Pennsylvania, And Virginia.

I'll be an optimist for once...

Obama: 380
McCain: 158

Obama: CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, HI, IA, IL, IN, MA, MD, ME MI, MN, MO, NC, NH, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OH, OR, PA, RI, VA, VT, WA, WI, WV

McCain: AK, AL, AR, AZ, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, MT, ND, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WY

My prediction is that Obama will get at least 375. Giving Obama a 'landslide' victory. 538 gives this outcome a 35.24% chance of happening.

This post was a couple of days ago. Since then, 538 has given the result of the election a 41.37% chance of ending with +375 votes for Obama.

This post was a couple of days ago. Since then, 538 has given the result of the election a 41.37% chance of ending with +375 votes for Obama.

538's latest simulations show the election having a 53.67% chance of ending in a landslide for Obama. My prediction has increased in likelyhood by about 18% since I made it.

Forgive me if I'm looking a little smug now.

Obama 538, McCain 0.

Obama 333 ME, VT, NH, MA, CT, RI, NY, NJ, PA, DE, MD, DC, VA, FL, OH, MI, IL, WI, IA, MN, CO, NM, CA, OR, WA, HI
McCain 205 NC, SC, GA, AL, MS, TN, KY, WV, IN, MO, AR, LA, TX, OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, MT, WY, ID, NV, UT, AZ, AK

Obama: Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, New Mexico, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and the District of Columbia (264 E.V.s)

McCain: Alaska, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina (174 E.V.s)

Therefore this leaves 7 “swing” states: Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida (100 E.V.s)

We BOTH feel that McCain will win Missouri, and it’s 11 E.V.s, bringing him up to 185.

The way things are going, McCain will lose Missouri too, as well as Indiana, North Dakota, and Omaha (that one district of Nebraska) from his "safe" states, among which I assume you are including Montana although you haven't listed it, and I think McCain can easily lose Montana also to a "Nader effect" (Ron Paul is on the ballot there, and is doing great, although the polls only measure McCain/Obama head-to-head). That brings McCain down to 151, to Obama's 382.

The way things are going, McCain will lose Missouri too, as well as Indiana, North Dakota, and Omaha (that one district of Nebraska) from his "safe" states, among which I assume you are including Montana although you haven't listed it, and I think McCain can easily lose Montana also to a "Nader effect" (Ron Paul is on the ballot there, and is doing great, although the polls only measure McCain/Obama head-to-head). That brings McCain down to 151, to Obama's 382.

Not to pick nits, but could you link to some polls that show Indiana, North Dakota, and Montana within striking distance for Obama? I haven't seen anything that shows those states are realistically in play.

Not to pick nits, but could you link to some polls that show Indiana, North Dakota, and Montana within striking distance for Obama? I haven't seen anything that shows those states are realistically in play.

I found a poll that suggests ND might be, but it's not exactly one of the "major" polls, so take it with a grain of salt.

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?type=src&source_id=85

No poll that I could find has had Obama leading in IN since mid-September, and for MT, it's been even longer -- not since July.

Not to pick nits, but could you link to some polls that show Indiana, North Dakota, and Montana within striking distance for Obama? I haven't seen anything that shows those states are realistically in play.
He was leading or tied in Indiana last week (http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/indiana.html), is trailing now but I bet that will change before election day (Nate thinks so too: Polling Average McCain +2.5 but Trend Adjusted Obama +1.6, for a Projection of Obama +0.8).
He is "winning" (OK, it's within margin of error) North Dakota by the only recent poll (http://www.in-forum.com/articles/index.cfm?id=218215&section=news).
In Montana, as I said there just hasn't been a poll which includes Ron Paul. I am going by anecdotal reports that Ron Paul lawn signs vastly outnumber McCain signs: I think the Republicans are in for a hideous surprise there.

Edit: as Maineiacs says, the ND poll is not by one of the "major" national organizations; but it is by locals who know their own ground well, and I am inclined to give it even more weight than I would to a national organization.

Obama sometimes gets a favorable poll result in North Dakota, including one this month. Granted, he leads by a thin 2% margin in those polls, while McCain wins with a higher margin in others, but over all I would give a blue ND better odds than McCain winning back Missouri or something like that.

RealClearPolitics.com currently projects the numbers I called earlier, 364:174. I think the trend is not over there. I would now revise my guess upwards and say 380:160, giving Indiana and North Dakota to Obama as well.

Yes, they're polling for McCain now, and yes, there is Bradley's Effect to remember. But it is two more weeks till the election and McCain is sinking like a stone when you look at the change over time. He keeps doing the unexpected, perhaps in the hope of convincing progressives that he is flexible and up-to-date - but all he gives is the impression of blind panic. Other polls suggest that McCain's supporters are less enthusiastic and perhaps less likely to go out and vote (as opposed to answering a telephone survey).

All I know is that Obama WILL win.:(

Yeah. :(

(Not that McCain would be any better, though...)

323 Obama
215 McCain

I notice that my numbers 382 Obama, 151 McCain don't add up to 538. I think I must have left out West Virginia. What the hey, give it to Obama on the strength of the Dr. Ralph Stanley And His Clinch Mountain Boys endorsement (never underestimate the power of bluegrass musicians in Appalachia). Make it 387 - 151.

Obama 364, McCain 174.

Obama: WA, OR, CA, NV, CO, NM, ND, MN, WI, IA, IL, MO, MI, OH, FL, WV, VA, PA, NY, ME, VT, NH, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, HI (357)
McBain: the rest (181)

haha, nate at 538:
"It is imperative that McCain does not just draw tomorrow night's debate, does not just win a victory on points, but emerges with a resounding victory, the sort that leaves the spin room gasping for air. Failing that, we are getting into dead girl, live boy territory."

haha, nate at 538:
"It is imperative that McCain does not just draw tomorrow night's debate, does not just win a victory on points, but emerges with a resounding victory, the sort that leaves the spin room gasping for air. Failing that, we are getting into dead girl, live boy territory."

The thing is, McCain supporters believe, they truly believe that McCain can pull it off. They honestly believe that their candidate is going to show up on the debate tomorrow and perform so brilliantly, so eloquently, display such a command of the issue, such a presidential presence that Obama will have no point to sit in stunned silence, then hang his head in shame. Embarrassed, humiliated, and utterly defeated.

except it won't happen. I know, I know, McCain supporters don't want to hear it, especially since it's the only hope they got left, but it's true. The good news for John McCain is that pepole don't get to where John McCain is by being fools. The bad news for John McCain is that people don't get to where Barack Obama is by being fools either.

As much as McCain supporters want to believe that right now, somewhere, Obama is sitting back, smoking a cigar, drinking a brandy, and talking about how he's already won, and how stupid Americans are for believing in him, the truth is, as we speak, he's sitting in a room being grilled by experts in the field, not just Obama faithful, but hired intellectuals. Obama may be feeling confident, but he's not cocky. He has run a political campaign that will go down in history and he has proven he is every bit the political animal. Obama is not resting on premature laurels, he is making damn sure he is doing EVERYTHING to ensure that McCain does not get the win he needs.

Now Obama's not Lincoln, but McCain is no Douglas. As much as McCain wants to spout out "we got him just where we want him" this is Obama's show to lose and I PROMISE you, he's doing everything he can to stop that from happening.

The thing is, McCain supporters believe, they truly believe that McCain can pull it off. They honestly believe that their candidate is going to show up on the debate tomorrow and perform so brilliantly, so eloquently, display such a command of the issue, such a presidential presence that Obama will have no point to sit in stunned silence, then hang his head in shame. Embarrassed, humiliated, and utterly defeated.

except it won't happen. I know, I know, McCain supporters don't want to hear it, especially since it's the only hope they got left, but it's true. The good news for John McCain is that pepole don't get to where John McCain is by being fools. The bad news for John McCain is that people don't get to where Barack Obama is by being fools either.

As much as McCain supporters want to believe that right now, somewhere, Obama is sitting back, smoking a cigar, drinking a brandy, and talking about how he's already won, and how stupid Americans are for believing in him, the truth is, as we speak, he's sitting in a room being grilled by experts in the field, not just Obama faithful, but hired intellectuals. Obama may be feeling confident, but he's not cocky. He has run a political campaign that will go down in history and he has proven he is every bit the political animal. Obama is not resting on premature laurels, he is making damn sure he is doing EVERYTHING to ensure that McCain does not get the win he needs.

Now Obama's not Lincoln, but McCain is no Douglas. As much as McCain wants to spout out "we got him just where we want him" this is Obama's show to lose and I PROMISE you, he's doing everything he can to stop that from happening.

You can just imagine McCains current "base" foamng at the mouth, screaming at their TVs "MOTHERFUCKING SHIT GOD DAMNIT! HOW IS THIS ****** WINNNG! HES A ****** FOR FUCKS SAKE! WHAT DONT YOU PEOPLE GET?!?"

Youre 100% right. McCain needs to obliterate him. It wont happen, and anyone aside from the aformentioned hick knows it.

Obama has yet to take anything for granted. Hes not going to start now that hes so close.

Sorry guys.... this will not be a landslide election. This is what I foresee come that November night of 2008.

Obama 273
McCain 268

Obama won Colorado by just 2 percentage points, so its 52% to 48%.

McCain would have won Ohio and missouri by a mere 2 percentage points as well. Fox news was already getting ready to announce mccain as the winner by the mere fact he won missouri but they will be proven wrong. CNN, ABC and CBS will finally make the announcement that Obama made it through, BARELY.

Im an Obama supporter by the way and Im black. I am well aware of the real world and the forces against Obama. He will win, but barely. If McCain wins, I will be slightly surprised, but not to the point where Im thinking about it for days. Its just reality and we all recognise the forces being playing in these elections.

Caprecia, I have been just as cynical as you for most of the year, but I honestly think this has gotten way beyond the power of the Republicans to fudge, tamper, and steal. The whole ACORN business is evidence that the Republicans are going to try to pretend that the Democrats stole it this time: see, they're already setting themselves up with excuses for why they are about to get shellacked embarrassingly!

Doesn't that make you feel better?

Out of potential close races:
Obama: PA, WV, OH, IN (*prays*), VA, NC, CO, IA, NV
McCain: FL, MO, NM... possible other swing states I might of missed.

337-201

Out of potential close races:
Obama: PA, WV, OH, IN (*prays*), VA, NC, CO, IA, NV
McCain: FL, MO, NM... possible other swing states I might of missed.

337-201
A couple weeks ago, someone said it might come down to New Mexico. I think NM will be the closest state race. (I just hope not Florida 2000 close)

A couple weeks ago, someone said it might come down to New Mexico. I think NM will be the closest state race. (I just hope not Florida 2000 close)

It can be as close, as it wants, honestly. Unless about 10 states are that close, we'll know who the President-elect is on Wednesday morning.

Playing with that think, it's funny that, in theory, someone could win the election with 11 states given current population distribution.

I predict Obama 315, McCain 223

Obama wins: Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, Virginia, Maryland, D.C., Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut and Florida.
McCain takes the other states.

If Obama wins florida or Virginia its over for Mcain. It might be over for him already.

If Obama wins florida or Virginia its over for Mcain. It might be over for him already.

It is, barring assassination or fraud.

I'm not sure, but I seem to remember reading that Obama now leads in every swing state. Every single God damn swing state. And he only needs like one more to come over to get the numbers he needs to win.

It is, barring assassination or fraud.

1- Assassination would make Joe Biden into President. And likely Hillary Clinton as into his VP.

2- Fraud would have to be MASSIVE.

If Obama wins florida or Virginia its over for Mcain. It might be over for him already.

According to CNN's (http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/) polls, which have been extremely careful not to say anything without being completely sure, Virginia is no longer a battleground state, but an Obama state. For quite a while, they had it as a battleground state, and only promoted it to Leaning Obama when Obama polled at a 10% lead or something there.

It is, barring assassination or fraud.

I'm not sure, but I seem to remember reading that Obama now leads in every swing state. Every single God damn swing state. And he only needs like one more to come over to get the numbers he needs to win.

Going by CNN, Virginia is no longer a swing state, and, based just on states where his lead exceeds the margin of error, Obama has already won. The fact that he is leading in the rest of the swing states doesn't matter. McBush could win every swing state, and still lose now. Moreover, according to Electoral-Vote (http://www.electoral-vote.com/), Obama's lead in Colorado is 5%, which is outside the margin of error, AND Obama has a slight lead in North Dakota - a once grotesquely red state.

1- Assassination would make Joe Biden into President. And likely Hillary Clinton as into his VP.

2- Fraud would have to be MASSIVE.

The level of fraud required would make it blindingly obvious to everyone, and I doubt there would be all that many that would stand for it. It would require the current President using the military to enact martial law to force everyone to accept it, and in the case that happens, there would be massive riots.

I predict McCain will take Texas.

I predict McCain will take Texas.

I'll take you on that bet.

Obama:320 to 218

I'll take you on that bet.

Ok, one million dollars! Got paypay?

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/


I say 316 Obama to 222 McCain.

I gave North Dakota, Indiana, Florida and Ohio to McCain; Nevada, Missouri and North Carolina to Obama.


Edit: Man, even though I was already cautious that's still a really big win. Yay! *keeps fingers crossed*

I say 316 Obama to 222 McCain.

I gave North Dakota, Indiana, Florida and Ohio to McCain; Nevada, Missouri and North Carolina to Obama.


Edit: Man, even though I was already cautious that's still a really big win. Yay! *keeps fingers crossed*
Wow, Ohio to McCain and Missouri to Obama. Interesting.

I have to say given how all over the board the predictions in terms of who gets what state, this is going to be a very interesting Nov. 4.

Wow, Ohio to McCain and Missouri to Obama. Interesting.
Well, I gave Missouri to Obama because of Poli's post earlier in this (I think) thread and McCain got Ohio because I don't think both Pennsylvania AND Ohio will not disappoint me so Ohio had to take the fall. It's their own fault. -_-

Well, I gave Missouri to Obama because of Poli's post earlier in this (I think) thread and McCain got Ohio because I don't think both Pennsylvania AND Ohio will not disappoint me so Ohio had to take the fall. It's their own fault. -_-

What did Ohio ever do to you? :(

(Seriously, yeah, I expect it to go to McCain. I can remember a middle school lunchroom conversation when I used to live in Ohio once...I specifically remember telling someone--I think his name was Robert or something like that--that I was a Democrat(which I was at the time.)

His response?

"You're a Democrat?! Oh my Gha-hod!" (That's how he said it, with a little laugh in the word God.)

The level of fraud required would make it blindingly obvious to everyone
I thought 2000 and 2004 were blindingly obvious. True, it would have to be much larger this time (2000 and 2004 were genuinely very close), but I hope we don't have to test the level of gullibility of "everyone" in the US.
and I doubt there would be all that many that would stand for it.I didn't expect people to stand for it in 2000.

We're now 13 days of campaigning left, so I'm putting this post back up there for folks to see. I will update the predictions tonight.

Wouldn't venture an opinion on how the election will transpire, but I personaly want a close Obama victory. Not that I have any affection for the man, or the brand of politics he expounds, but I'd rather not have Palin near high office.

I predict McCain will take Texas.


ARE YOU KIDDING ME A SOLID BLUE STATE LIKE THAT NO WAY!!!!:confused:

Wouldn't venture an opinion on how the election will transpire, but I personaly want a close Obama victory.
I want the Republicans drubbed so thoroughly that they dissolve, like the Federalists and the Whigs before them.

I want the Republicans drubbed so thoroughly that they dissolve, like the Federalists and the Whigs before them.

Agreed, but it's not gonna happend....

I want the Republicans drubbed so thoroughly that they dissolve, like the Federalists and the Whigs before them.

Hardly likely. They represent a substantial proportion of the american electorate, and there is no obvious replacement.

As in the case of the Federalists and Whigs, a replacement cannot be created until the old party has dissolved. Sensible right-wingers (people who believe in balancing budgets, keeping taxes low but sufficient to pay expenses; are socially tolerant, no matter how straight-laced and proud of it they are in their personal conduct; want a strong military, but not a lot of pointless interventions abroad, etc.) need to form a "Conservative Party" or "Tory Party" or whatever they want to call it, but they have to leave the rotting corpse of the Republican Party to the fundie-christians and paranoid-fanatics.

As in the case of the Federalists and Whigs, a replacement cannot be created until the old party has dissolved. Sensible right-wingers (people who believe in balancing budgets, keeping taxes low but sufficient to pay expenses; are socially tolerant, no matter how straight-laced and proud of it they are in their personal conduct; want a strong military, but not a lot of pointless interventions abroad, etc.) need to form a "Conservative Party" or "Tory Party" or whatever they want to call it, but they have to leave the rotting corpse of the Republican Party to the fundie-christians and paranoid-fanatics.

Wouldn't care to comment on the Federalists, primarily because I can't, but the better part of the whigs simply buggered off to Labour throughout the sustained atrophy of the party in the twentieth century. A replacement was very much present.

You do have a point regarding "sensible right-wingers" in any case, however, would you not agree every political party is a little ashamed of the less informed of its voters, and its respective extreme?

the better part of the whigs simply buggered off to Labour
Evidently you are not an American, and don't have a clue about what I am referring to. The Federalists were the right-wing party until the election of 1816, when they were drubbed so thoroughly they dissolved, and could not even field a candidate in 1820. The single party that was left fractured in 1824, into the Democrats and the Whigs (the American "Whigs" did not resemble the English party whose name they copied in any particular policy way). The (American) Whig party was drubbed so thoroughly in 1852 that it dissolved, after which the Republicans emerged as a new second party.

We're now 13 days of campaigning left, so I'm putting this post back up there for folks to see. I will update the predictions tonight.

Can I re-do my prediction? Apparently, the ugliness from the McCain campaign hasn't had nearly the effect I had feared it would.

Can I re-do my prediction? Apparently, the ugliness from the McCain campaign hasn't had nearly the effect I had feared it would.

Go for it.

Also, I encourage people to make predictions about specific states they think will surprise people.

Go for it.

Also, I encourage people to make predictions about specific states they think will surprise people.

Well, in that vein: Obama takes ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, PA, DE, MD, DC, VA, FL, OH, MI, WI, IL, IA, MN, CO, NM, NV, CA, OR, WA, and HI

McCain carries NC, SC, GA, AL, MS, TN, KY, WV, IN, MO, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, AR, LA, TX, AZ, UT, WY, MT, ID, and AK

Total: Obama -- 338 McCain -- 200

other than the surprise inherent in VA going for the Dems for the first time since 1964, the biggest event will be MO not going with the winner for only like the second time in the last century, though it will be close.

I said it once and I'll say it again.

273 for Obama
265 for McCan

Despite what the polls say, McCain will still win North Carolina, Virginia and Florida. Obama will win New Mexico and Colorado.

McCain will not win Penn. but he will win Ohio and missouri although this time missouri's bellweather status will be gone from years of deep conservative hold over the midwest.

This race will not come down to Ohio or Florida.. the real battle come election time will be in Colorado and Obama will win by a few percentage points, giving him just enough to cross the presidential line. Most people will assume once mccain wins virginia and ohio and Florida that he will probably win the election but it will come down to Colorado and Obama will win that state, and in effect the presidency.

Caprecia's election night prediction:
http://i193.photobucket.com/albums/z281/thekaladorian/ELECTIONNIGHTfixedupagain.png

Obama: ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, PA, DE, MD, DC, MI, WI, IL, MN, CO, NM, CA, OR, WA, HI and IA

McCain: NC, SC, GA, AL, MS, TN, KY, WV, IN, MO, VA, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, AR, LA, TX, AZ, UT, WY, MT, ID, OH and AK



Sorry to those of you who think this will be a landslide, it wont.

I said it once and I'll say it again.

273 for Obama
268 for McCan

Despite what the polls say, McCain will still win North Carolina, Virginia and Florida. Obama will win New Mexico and Colorado.

McCain will not win Penn. but he will win Ohio and missouri although this time missouri's bellweather status will be gone from years of deep conservative hold over the midwest.

This race will not come down to Ohio or Florida.. the real battle come election time will be in Colorado and Obama will win by a few percentage points, giving him just enough to cross the presidential line. Most people will assume once mccain wins virginia and ohio and Florida that he will probably win the election but it will come down to Colorado and Obama will win that state, and in effect the presidency.

Caprecia's election night prediction:
http://i193.photobucket.com/albums/z281/thekaladorian/ELECTIONNIGHTfixedup.png

A... your math is wrong. It's 265 McCain.

B... so McCain despite being unable to do so thus far, flips a ton of states and Obama does not manage one. Interesting.

Fixed, thankyou for the correction.

First off let me just put a note here that Im a staunch Obama supporter and Im black.

Now thats out of the way this is what happens every election, if a democrat were to likely win, we'd be in the same situation where one candidate is expected to win by a land slide and then come election night its either a real close call or expectations are thrown out.

Now when we look at the electoral college, election night, we must take into account a number factors, especially in this particular race:

-Last minute voters who change their mind.
-Conservative movement in the swing states of Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, North Carolina and Florida just enough to tip the scales back into mccains favour.
-The bradly effect.
-In the event of an october surprise (palin was technically the early october surprise but we're taking this into account again)
-Osama once again sends out a tape, americans worrying about winnign a pointless war on the last minute.
And the most important, the polls might be inaccurate to the point where all the republican swing states switch back to mccain on election night.
-The economy recovers somehow on the list minute enough for people to look to something else.

America is overall an conservative nation, the only reasons democrats win is whenever a republican messes up. Nevermind this "Liberal media" garbage, nevermind that there is unfair views to conservatives from the rest of the world, america is an overall conservative nation and many might just decided to vote red again. But Obama will still likely win, I really hope he does.

I want the Republicans drubbed so thoroughly that they dissolve, like the Federalists and the Whigs before them.


Very unlikely. I do wish the Republicans would reform and become something better than what they were. They're tearing down the US instead of building it up. (Although, I doubt that they would agree with that statement.) But this isn't the Republican party I remember reading about in history books. I wish to God (or gods, or no god, if you're atheistic) that the Republicans would get rid of the Fundmentalist Right, the Neo-cons, and start over. I find these groups repulsive. This Republican party, has no heart and no feeling towards human beings. I voted for Obama because I feel that he has heart and feeling towards people. Maybe that's the politican in him, but I don't feel it from McCain. And I don't feel it from a lot of the people in the Republican party. I just see a lot of hate mongers and bigots. *sighs* What happened to the party of Abraham Lincoln? Poor Lincoln would be appaled at what happened to his party.

I am going to be an optimist and predict that landslide that would cripple the republican party.

Obama takes WA, OR, CA, NV, CO, NM, MN, IA, IL, MO, WI, MI, PA, VA, ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NJ, DE, MD, DC, FL, HI, NC
Obama gets 364
Mcain gets ID, UT, AZ, AK, MT, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, AR, LA, MS, AL, TN, KY, IN, GA, SC, WV
Mcain takes 174

I am predicting this because registered democrats are higher than they have been in decades.

Voter turnout looks like it will be higher than it has been in deccades which favors democrats.

Registered voters 18-26 are at an all time high. These voters will favor the democrats.

Fixed, thankyou for the correction.

First off let me just put a note here that Im a staunch Obama supporter and Im black.

Now thats out of the way this is what happens every election, if a democrat were to likely win, we'd be in the same situation where one candidate is expected to win by a land slide and then come election night its either a real close call or expectations are thrown out.

Now when we look at the electoral college, election night, we must take into account a number factors, especially in this particular race:

-Last minute voters who change their mind.
-Conservative movement in the swing states of Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, North Carolina and Florida just enough to tip the scales back into mccains favour.
-The bradly effect.
-In the event of an october surprise (palin was technically the early october surprise but we're taking this into account again)
-Osama once again sends out a tape, americans worrying about winnign a pointless war on the last minute.
And the most important, the polls might be inaccurate to the point where all the republican swing states switch back to mccain on election night.
-The economy recovers somehow on the list minute enough for people to look to something else.

America is overall an conservative nation, the only reasons democrats win is whenever a republican messes up. Nevermind this "Liberal media" garbage, nevermind that there is unfair views to conservatives from the rest of the world, america is an overall conservative nation and many might just decided to vote red again. But Obama will still likely win, I really hope he does.

I'll grant you the Bradley effect. I've been worried about that as well. However: bin Laden has already "endorsed by proxy" (via Islamist websites) McCain's candidacy, and the economy will not recover for years, no matter who is President.

268 McCain 268 Obama 1 Nader or some independent.

Can that even work? I mean hypothetically rather than if it will happen.

And I don't mean if my numbers are wrong correct them so Obama and McCain have the same amount of college votes and a independent has the one left over

268 McCain 268 Obama 1 Nader or some independent.

Can that even work? I mean hypothetically rather than if it will happen.

There are a couple of states (Nebraska and Maine, I think) who apportion their electoral votes, so yes it could theoretically happen.

268 McCain 268 Obama 1 Nader or some independent.

Can that even work? I mean hypothetically rather than if it will happen.

And I don't mean if my numbers are wrong correct them so Obama and McCain have the same amount of college votes and a independent has the one left over

There are a couple of states (Nebraska and Maine, I think) who apportion their electoral votes, so yes it could theoretically happen.

True, though if a 3rd candidate got 1 EV from either ME or NE while Obama and McCain split the oters, the total would be 269-268-1 (which would still send the election to the House as no candidate would have 270).

Since I live in North Dakota, (ND), I can say that the local state polls are showing a lead for Obama this year by about 6%. There is big talk in the state that this may be the first time in a LONG time ND has voted for a Democratic Presidential Canidate. McCain did have a minor lead but one of the major reasons cited for the switch was the fact that ND is mainly a farming state. When McCain said he didn't believe it was the business of the Fed Gov to give any subsidies to farmers, he kinda pissed off a lot of folks who had been behind him.

I don't know which way the election will go, but I will say that North Dakota is likely to go to Obama this year.

268 McCain 268 Obama 1 Nader or some independent.

Can that even work? I mean hypothetically rather than if it will happen.

And I don't mean if my numbers are wrong correct them so Obama and McCain have the same amount of college votes and a independent has the one left over

You are missing a vote. There are 538 votes total, you only have 537. The electoral college can actually tie 269-269.

You are missing a vote. There are 538 votes total, you only have 537. The electoral college can actually tie 269-269.

it's also near impossible to get ONE electoral vote. The only way possible is if you take it from one of the two states (Nebraska and Maine I believe) that split their votes, as no state has fewer than 3 EVs.

Obama 308, McCain 230

So Obama wins the Kerry states plus IA MO NM OH VA, and loses WV.

Since I live in North Dakota, (ND), I can say that the local state polls are showing a lead for Obama this year by about 6%. There is big talk in the state that this may be the first time in a LONG time ND has voted for a Democratic Presidential Canidate. McCain did have a minor lead but one of the major reasons cited for the switch was the fact that ND is mainly a farming state. When McCain said he didn't believe it was the business of the Fed Gov to give any subsidies to farmers, he kinda pissed off a lot of folks who had been behind him.

I don't know which way the election will go, but I will say that North Dakota is likely to go to Obama this year.
Yay. I have a soft spot for the Dakotas for reasons not entirely clear to me, so this delights me and makes me promptly revise my prediction:
I say 316 Obama to 222 McCain.

I gave North Dakota, Indiana, Florida and Ohio to McCain; Nevada, Missouri and North Carolina to Obama.
North Dakota has 3 electoral votes IIRC so that would change my prediction to 319 Obama to 219 McCain.


I'm still holding out faint hopes for Indiana to come around but I'm not seeing it. But if Khadgar or some other Hoosier wants to post about how the local polls are all for Obama I'll totally adjust my prediction. *hopes*

Obama 285, McCain 253

Yay. I have a soft spot for the Dakotas for reasons not entirely clear to me, so this delights me and makes me promptly revise my prediction:

My relatives still live in ND. They founded a town there when they moved her from Norway. I hear all the cool cats are from Norway. WHAT!

it's also near impossible to get ONE electoral vote. The only way possible is if you take it from one of the two states (Nebraska and Maine I believe) that split their votes, as no state has fewer than 3 EVs.

Interestingly enough, it is actually more difficult to get 2 EVs than 1 EV, as Maine can only split 4-0 or 3-1 and cannot go 2-2 (since that would make no sense). So, 2 EVs can only be obtained if Nebraska splits 3-2, whereas 1 EV can be obtained from either Maine or Nebraska.

it's also near impossible to get ONE electoral vote. The only way possible is if you take it from one of the two states (Nebraska and Maine I believe) that split their votes, as no state has fewer than 3 EVs.

Well, considering NE does it by congressional district, if you solely campaigned in one of them, you might have a shot. Ya know, the Rudy plan.

Interestingly enough, it is actually more difficult to get 2 EVs than 1 EV, as Maine can only split 4-0 or 3-1 and cannot go 2-2 (since that would make no sense). So, 2 EVs can only be obtained if Nebraska splits 3-2, whereas 1 EV can be obtained from either Maine or Nebraska.

Wait? 2-2 would make no sense?

This thread is about your predictions as for which electoral votes each candidate will get.

NA and I were arguing which state we think will go which way, mostly in an effort to secure bragging rights. The next post will give our predictions v one another.

NOTE: There are several other threads for debating the candidates. This is about the electoral and which why you think they'll go and why. I think distinct predictions will be fun.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/

Predictions so far:

Obama to Win
Grave N Idle: 270 to 268
Shofercia: 277 to 261
Dumb Ideologies: 280 to 258
Zombie PotatoHeads: 286 to 252
Neo Art: 291 to 247
Vaarshire: 298 to 240
Dragontide 302 to 236
Daistallia 2104: 309 to 229
Knights of Liberty: 311 to 227
Deus Malum: 313 to 225
Aceopolis: 322 to 216
[NS]Cerean: 326 to 212
New Manvir: 349 to 189
Eofaerwic: 350 to 188
Jocabia: 354 to 184
Fleckenstein: 364 to 174
Fonzica: 375 to 163

McCain to Win
Zilam: 272 to 266
CanuckHeaven: 275 to 263
Maineiacs: 279 to 259

http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showpost.php?p=14091186&postcount=20

Obama 302-236

Wait? 2-2 would make no sense?

Yeah. Maine awards two EVs for the overall winner of the state, and one EV for the winner in each congressional district. It would be impossible for someone to win the state overall while losing in both congressional districts, and vice versa.

I think Obama is the only one who looks like winning this election. But i just hope that his supporters dont get over confident and not rock up to vote. That would be a real shame for Obama, United States of America and also the world.

Someone's math is way off. If you agree with me, but believe Obama will also win Ohio, then he SHOULD be at 311. 264 + 5 (nevada) +9 (colorado) + 13 (virginia) + 20 (ohio)Obama shall NOT win Colorado, Virginia, or Ohio.

Yeah. Maine awards two EVs for the overall winner of the state, and one EV for the winner in each congressional district. It would be impossible for someone to win the state overall while losing in both congressional districts, and vice versa.

Ah, see, you learn something new.

Obama shall NOT win Colorado, Virginia, or Ohio.

Based on? He's already nearly sewn up VA.

if Nebraska splits 3-2

which would be complicated all by itself, involving very close wins in two congressional districts and a humiliating might-as-well-not-even-been-on-the-ballot loss in the other

Obama shall NOT win Colorado, Virginia, or Ohio.

YOU SHALL NOT PASS

Obama is up 10% in Virginia. That's one hell of a Bradley effect you're counting on if you really think he's going to lose it.

which would be complicated all by itself, involving very close wins in two congressional districts and a humiliating might-as-well-not-even-been-on-the-ballot loss in the other

Or just a 2x+1 vote difference in one district favoring one candidate and x difference average favoring the opposite candidate in the other two. So if it's 500 votes difference in two districts for Obama and 1001 votes difference in the third for McCain. The state goes to McCain with all of them being close.

Or in percentages (assuming they're all equal in size) say a 2% difference in two districts and a 5% difference in the third.

I'm not going to make a prediction until the 31st. Till then I'm still watching and waiting.

I'm not going to make a prediction until the 31st. Till then I'm still watching and waiting.

Wuss. Bock, bock, bagock!

Wuss. Bock, bock, bagock!
Okay, okay, I'll make a map of the states I'm sure of right now...

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v625/PIcaRDMPC/oct23.png

States in Red are McCain.
States in Blue are Obama.
States in Purple are ones I'm not sure about yet.

Or just a 2x+1 vote difference in one district favoring one candidate and x difference average favoring the opposite candidate in the other two. So if it's 500 votes difference in two districts for Obama and 1001 votes difference in the third for McCain. The state goes to McCain with all of them being close.

Or in percentages (assuming they're all equal in size) say a 2% difference in two districts and a 5% difference in the third.

well, in principle. but under the current demographics...

YOU SHALL NOT PASS

Obama is up 10% in Virginia. That's one hell of a Bradley effect you're counting on if you really think he's going to lose it.I have done my own survey and Obama is down two percent in Virginia.

YOU SHALL NOT PASS

Obama is up 10% in Virginia. That's one hell of a Bradley effect you're counting on if you really think he's going to lose it.

Really? I thought it was more like 3% ahead. What poll are you looking at?

Okay, okay, I'll make a map of the states I'm sure of right now...

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v625/PIcaRDMPC/oct23.png

States in Red are McCain.
States in Blue are Obama.
States in Purple are ones I'm not sure about yet.Correct one.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/media/images/electoralroadmapbigger/130645-1-eng-US/electoralroadmapbigger.gif

Really? I thought it was more like 3% ahead. What poll are you looking at?

That would be the Rasmussen Report (ttp://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/virginia/toplines_virginia_presidential_election_october_16_2008) for October 16th.

Correct one.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/media/images/electoralroadmapbigger/130645-1-eng-US/electoralroadmapbigger.gif

Where the hell do they get off labeling MICHIGAN as a toss-up?

Also, that was my electoral prediction for the most part; I'm just not sure about a few states.

Correct one.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/var/plain/storage/images/media/images/electoralroadmapbigger/130645-1-eng-US/electoralroadmapbigger.gif

Even the giant wusses at CNN aren't so willfully ignorant as to make a map like that. Here's a much more REALISTIC (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/) map.

Even the giant wusses at CNN aren't so willfully ignorant as to make a map like that. Here's a much more REALISTIC (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/calculator/) map.I find it funny that they considered 2732 College students a 'fair' poll.

I find it funny that they considered 2732 College students a 'fair' poll.

I find it funny that you subscribe to a map that puts Michigan as "toss-up" even though it's own conservative-leaning poll has Obama up by 15% there, puts New Hampshire as "toss-up" even though it hasn't had one of its own polls show McCain leading since March, only puts Oregon as "likely Obama" even though its own polls have NEVER shown McCain leading there, and yet you harp on a map that included, amongst its dozens of polls, a poll of "2372 College students". Laughable.

I find it funny that you subscribe to a map that puts Michigan as "toss-up" even though it's own conservative-leaning poll has Obama up by 15% there, puts New Hampshire as "toss-up" even though it hasn't had one of its own polls show McCain leading since March, only puts Oregon as "likely Obama" even though its own polls have NEVER shown McCain leading there, and yet you harp on a map that included, amongst its dozens of polls, a poll of "2372 College students". Laughable.Well, it seems that my mere randomness has aroused the suspicion of a person who seeks to undermine my fun in some manner. So might I point out that I did not actually subscribe to any of these notions of the links I pull up to be anywhere near valid, as the link I got by simply doing a google search and finding the most out of date looking opinion map. So please before you attempt to dissect the motives of others please remember this is NSG and what many people say here is not meant to reflect their true political opinions, or personal opinions for the matter.

So now that moment of mental acuity is over… Pi Time!!!!

3.1415926535 8979323846264338327950288419716939937510

Well, it seems that my mere randomness has aroused the suspicion of a person who seeks to undermine my fun in some manner. So might I point out that I did not actually subscribe to any of these notions of the links I pull up to be anywhere near valid, as the link I got by simply doing a google search and finding the most out of date looking opinion map. So please before you attempt to dissect the motives of others please remember this is NSG and what many people say here is not meant to reflect their true political opinions, or personal opinions for the matter.

So now that moment of mental acuity is over… Pi Time!!!!

3.1415926535 8979323846264338327950288419716939937510
At least you put a more credible argument than the majority of McCain supporters here.

...

Actually, that's pretty sad.

538 currently puts the likelihood of an Obama landslide (+375 votes) at 54.33%. It also puts the five most likely EV outcomes as 375, 378, 376, 379, 380 from its 10 000 simulations.

Where the hell do they get off labeling MICHIGAN as a toss-up?

Silliness. Michigan is going to go very solidly for Obama this year. Obama's promised support for the Big 3, McCain hasn't. That alone determines it.

My cash is on Palin hiring a wolf-killer to eliminate the Democratic threat , then winning the election by default before McBush checking into heaven while taking a dump in one of his 23 houses

Okay, okay, I'll make a map of the states I'm sure of right now...

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v625/PIcaRDMPC/oct23.png

States in Red are McCain.
States in Blue are Obama.
States in Purple are ones I'm not sure about yet.


Yeah, I'm sure about something else. You just guessed about the way the country REALLY is shaping up. You are not sure of any facts based in reality about how things really will turn out.

I'll just take North Dakota for instance. You know, that little red state smack dab in the middle of the nation along the Canadian border. It’s located right between Montana and Minnesota and surprisingly right above South Dakota. Anyway, since you seem to be pulling your guess out of some place not polite to speak on, I’ll give you some facts. As it stands today, state polls are showing McCain leading in the rural townships but not by much. As of today in the major cities such as Fargo, Bismarck, Minot, Jamestown, and Grand Forks Obama has a 5% lead over McCain (+ or - 3%). Overall, the big talk on nearly EVERY nightly news cast and at least once a week in the papers has been how Obama may be the first democrat that North Dakota would support since LBJ (Lyndon B. Johnson) …then again in 1964 Barry Goldwater only got 52 electoral votes with six states. It’s pretty much a dead heat…one of the only states that could claim a near tie. As it stands, voter turnout in the cities is higher than the rural areas so the news papers and such have been saying despite the fact that voters do not need to register to vote in our state and the rural areas may have a higher turnout this year, if we went to the polls today, Obama has a better chance than McCain to pull this state.

I’d check the following before breaking out MSPaint again, Kyronea.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election,_2008#Charts_of_polling_data_in_battleground_states
http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/president/30891024.html?elr=KArksc8P:Pc:U0ckkD:aEyKUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUU
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nd/north_dakota_mccain_vs_obama-618.html
(i'd point you to the local Fargo Forum articles but those require you either to be a subscriber or to register with the site)

Obama shall NOT win Colorado, Virginia, or Ohio.


His 10+ point lead in virginia says other wise.

Yeah, I'm sure about something else. You just guessed about the way the country REALLY is shaping up. You are not sure of any facts based in reality about how things really will turn out.
Actually, I used Five-Thirty-Eight for my source, but thank you for insulting me.

I'll just take North Dakota for instance. You know, that little red state smack dab in the middle of the nation along the Canadian border. It’s located right between Montana and Minnesota and surprisingly right above South Dakota. Anyway, since you seem to be pulling your guess out of some place not polite to speak on, I’ll give you some facts. As it stands today, state polls are showing McCain leading in the rural townships but not by much. As of today in the major cities such as Fargo, Bismarck, Minot, Jamestown, and Grand Forks Obama has a 5% lead over McCain (+ or - 3%). Overall, the big talk on nearly EVERY nightly news cast and at least once a week in the papers has been how Obama may be the first democrat that North Dakota would support since LBJ (Lyndon B. Johnson) …then again in 1964 Barry Goldwater only got 52 electoral votes with six states. It’s pretty much a dead heat…one of the only states that could claim a near tie. As it stands, voter turnout in the cities is higher than the rural areas so the news papers and such have been saying despite the fact that voters do not need to register to vote in our state and the rural areas may have a higher turnout this year, if we went to the polls today, Obama has a better chance than McCain to pull this state.

I’d check the following before breaking out MSPaint again, Kyronea.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election,_2008#Charts_of_polling_data_in_battleground_states
http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/president/30891024.html?elr=KArksc8P:Pc:U0ckkD:aEyKUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUU
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nd/north_dakota_mccain_vs_obama-618.html
(i'd point you to the local Fargo Forum articles but those require you either to be a subscriber or to register with the site)
[/quote]
Don't care. Obama's lead in North Dakota is a minor fluke. That is a very red state and will continue to be a red state this year. You'll note I didn't mark down North Carolina or Nevada or Indiana as confirmed Obama either, despite the fact he's leading in all three states as well.

It's because I'm not sure that the current leads are actually going to go anywhere yet. I may change my mind as time goes on, but right now, I'm pretty sure that North Dakota will stay red.

I like how inconvenent facts are just ignored or not cared about, even when someone living in that state and seeing Obama keep gaining more and more ground against McCain. I guess the fluke couldn't be something like McCain letting out the zinger that farmers shouldn't get any subsidies or support from the Feds. Yeah, that isn't going to hurt his chances in states where the main source of income would be...um...farming. Well, it's not like anyone really needs the 3 points or 3 points wouldn't have actually affected something like the 2000 election....oh...wait.

I like how inconvenent facts are just ignored or not cared about, even when someone living in that state and seeing Obama keep gaining more and more ground against McCain. I guess the fluke couldn't be something like McCain letting out the zinger that farmers shouldn't get any subsidies or support from the Feds. Yeah, that isn't going to hurt his chances in states where the main source of income would be...um...farming. Well, it's not like anyone really needs the 3 points or 3 points wouldn't have actually affected something like the 2000 election....oh...wait.

The problem is - these 'inconvenient facts' you talk about... just aren't facts yet.

A while back, I suggested that both North Dakota and Georgia (of all places) looked like they might swing blue - and the current polls are suggesting that maybe I wasn't just being a nut. But that doesn't mean that North Dakota and Georgia WILL go blue, and we won't have the 'facts' on that, until - probably - November 4th.

I like how inconvenent facts are just ignored or not cared about, even when someone living in that state and seeing Obama keep gaining more and more ground against McCain. I guess the fluke couldn't be something like McCain letting out the zinger that farmers shouldn't get any subsidies or support from the Feds. Yeah, that isn't going to hurt his chances in states where the main source of income would be...um...farming. Well, it's not like anyone really needs the 3 points or 3 points wouldn't have actually affected something like the 2000 election....oh...wait.

No offense, but no one really gives a shit if you're from North Dakota or not. We're all entitled to make our own educated guesses in this thread because that's all they are. Guesses. None is more or less valid than another. And Kyronea makes his educated guess on North Dakota based on an entire election's worth of polling that shows McCain with a slim but still noticeable lead, and one poll by Research 2000 showing a statistical tie isn't enough for him to flip it into the Democrats column.

I like how inconvenent facts are just ignored or not cared about, even when someone living in that state and seeing Obama keep gaining more and more ground against McCain. I guess the fluke couldn't be something like McCain letting out the zinger that farmers shouldn't get any subsidies or support from the Feds. Yeah, that isn't going to hurt his chances in states where the main source of income would be...um...farming. Well, it's not like anyone really needs the 3 points or 3 points wouldn't have actually affected something like the 2000 election....oh...wait.
I point you to the quote below.

The problem is - these 'inconvenient facts' you talk about... just aren't facts yet.

A while back, I suggested that both North Dakota and Georgia (of all places) looked like they might swing blue - and the current polls are suggesting that maybe I wasn't just being a nut. But that doesn't mean that North Dakota and Georgia WILL go blue, and we won't have the 'facts' on that, until - probably - November 4th.

I will add that I am an Obama supporter, and that I would like it very much if he took North Dakota.

I just don't think it's actually going to happen, and I will stand by my predictions.

EDIT: Also, I used the GIMP, thankyewverymuch.

The problem is - these 'inconvenient facts' you talk about... just aren't facts yet.

A while back, I suggested that both North Dakota and Georgia (of all places) looked like they might swing blue - and the current polls are suggesting that maybe I wasn't just being a nut. But that doesn't mean that North Dakota and Georgia WILL go blue, and we won't have the 'facts' on that, until - probably - November 4th.

The issue here is that whole pancake Tuesday thing that CTOAN talks about.

We don't KNOW about things that will happen in the future, but when talking about them all we can look to is the information available and analyze it as best we can.

The issue here is the poster you're replying to is pissed that anecdotes don't replace fairly reliable data.

I point you to the quote below.



I will add that I am an Obama supporter, and that I would like it very much if he took North Dakota.

I just don't think it's actually going to happen, and I will stand by my predictions.

EDIT: Also, I used the GIMP, thankyewverymuch.

Dammit, Kyr, I wish you were leaving on a Thursday or a Sunday. I could actually see you getting lined up to be sent to boot camp. In case the upcoming week and a half gets to engrossing and I forget, good luck, my friend, and thank you for your service.

The issue here is that whole pancake Tuesday thing that CTOAN talks about.

We don't KNOW about things that will happen in the future, but when talking about them all we can look to is the information available and analyze it as best we can.

The issue here is the poster you're replying to is pissed that anecdotes don't replace fairly reliable data.
Essentially.

To be perfectly honest, I'd love to see Montana and North Dakota going to Obama. Hell, I'd like to see everyone come to their senses and have a 538 complete and total smackdown on McCain.

But we know that's not going to happen from what we can see. We should be glad that Obama essentially has it in the bag rather than whining about North Dakota or whatever.


Dammit, Kyr, I wish you were leaving on a Thursday or a Sunday. I could actually see you getting lined up to be sent to boot camp. In case the upcoming week and a half gets to engrossing and I forget, good luck, my friend, and thank you for your service.

Thank you. http://generalitemafia.ipbfree.com/uploads/ipbfree.com/generalitemafia/emo-Hug_emoticon.gif

What did Ohio ever do to you? :(

(Seriously, yeah, I expect it to go to McCain. I can remember a middle school lunchroom conversation when I used to live in Ohio once...I specifically remember telling someone--I think his name was Robert or something like that--that I was a Democrat(which I was at the time.)

His response?

"You're a Democrat?! Oh my Gha-hod!" (That's how he said it, with a little laugh in the word God.)

I was once friends with someone in Pennsylvania who literally said that Bush's reelection marked "a glorious golden age for our republic".

In fact, I was friends with him until just about then.

Hardly likely. They represent a substantial proportion of the american electorate, and there is no obvious replacement.

Ron Paul might have split it. That looks extremely unlikely now, though. The best we can expect from him is a slight dent in McCain's votes.

Perhaps Ron Paul would have done better against Hillary. Neither Hillary nor McCain really appealed to the non-voters, and Ron Paul looked like he might mobilize against voter apathy for a while. Obama's campaign has neatly upstaged him on that point, of course.

---

It's really amazing how quickly the tide turned last month. When Obama won against Hillary, my father was still arguing that he would alienate the moderate left and lose, that the Democrats had voted for a "feel-good" candidate who they would like as a president rather than one who might stand a chance in the final race. No longer. I blame Palin.

(Or in the context, I should say I credit her.)

Just keeping this thread from sliding into zombie-land...
I want everyone to remember I was the first to predict landslide margins, double digit in the popular vote and by 230+ in electoral votes. If I'm the one who's right, NSG owes it to me to set up a date with Nate Silver!

This election needs to end. I'm tired of the emotional rollercoaster. According to the latest Zogby poll, Obama's lead has dropped from 12 points to just 5 in the last three days.:(

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081026/pl_politico/14951;_ylt=AvyoIbmYN7q3ccwoktnlGVph24cA

This election needs to end. I'm tired of the emotional rollercoaster. According to the latest Zogby poll, Obama's lead has dropped from 12 points to just 5 in the last three days.:(

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081026/pl_politico/14951;_ylt=AvyoIbmYN7q3ccwoktnlGVph24cA

If they just screw enough potential Democrat voters, they'll win by default...

According to the latest Zogby poll, Obama's lead has dropped from 12 points to just 5 in the last three days.
All the daily-tracking polls, especially Zogby, keep showing an Obama dip every weekend. Apparently Obama voters are more likely to have dates for Saturday night.

Put me down for:

Government to Win

American People to Lose

My bet

Obama - 302
McCain - 236

My bet

Obama - 302
McCain - 236

obama keeps all his solids, plus ohio, new mexico, and colorado, but loses new hampshire and every state mccain is within 4 of?

This election needs to end. I'm tired of the emotional rollercoaster. According to the latest Zogby poll, Obama's lead has dropped from 12 points to just 5 in the last three days.:(

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081026/pl_politico/14951;_ylt=AvyoIbmYN7q3ccwoktnlGVph24cA

According to 538, McCain has had some pretty sour days of polling, with only a 3.3% chance of winning the electoral vote.

According to 538, McCain has had some pretty sour days of polling, with only a 3.3% chance of winning the electoral vote.

See what I mean about a rollercoaster?

RealClearPolitics.com just moved Arizona from "Solid McCain" to "Leaning McCain" as his lead (according to Rasmussen, Arizona State and Northern Arizona University) is single-digit, 5-8%.

That's McCain's home state.

He'll still win it, probably, but not by very much. Now that would be something to see, a candidate losing his home state...

Obama, by a nose, Dems take both Senate and House, as well as most statewide elections, after which, elections will be un-necessary in the future, and likely impossible since the Patriot Act was renewed, and Democrats are much, much, more efficient at turning a Writ of Imperium on the domestic side, against anyone stupid enough to be caught criticising them.

RealClearPolitics.com just moved Arizona from "Solid McCain" to "Leaning McCain" as his lead (according to Rasmussen, Arizona State and Northern Arizona University) is single-digit, 5-8%.

That's McCain's home state.

He'll still win it, probably, but not by very much. Now that would be something to see, a candidate losing his home state...

electoral-vote.com has it at 42%/44% Obama/McCain. That's only two points.

My fiancee, who lived in Arizona until a couple of months ago said that it was because of the large number of Hispanics living there. I'm not sure whether that is the entire reason. But it will be interesting to see what happens come election day.

It looks like Obama will get Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and maybe North Carolina. McCain may be able to hold Florida but Obama will win the ball game. He could get Missouri, Nevada and Colorado too.

Obama, by a nose, Dems take both Senate and House, as well as most statewide elections, after which, elections will be un-necessary in the future, and likely impossible since the Patriot Act was renewed, and Democrats are much, much, more efficient at turning a Writ of Imperium on the domestic side, against anyone stupid enough to be caught criticising them.

Congratulations! You have passed your indoctrination test for membership in the Tinfoil Hat Brigade!:rolleyes:

RealClearPolitics.com just moved Arizona from "Solid McCain" to "Leaning McCain" as his lead (according to Rasmussen, Arizona State and Northern Arizona University) is single-digit, 5-8%.

That's McCain's home state.

He'll still win it, probably, but not by very much. Now that would be something to see, a candidate losing his home state...It happens more often than you'd think. The home state is where they know the candidate really well, after all. Gore lost Tennessee, for example; and although Edwards was running-mate not top-of-the-ticket, he is believed to have been a net negative in North Carolina. In the 1852 election, which the Whigs lost so badly that they never fielded a candidate again, they did get New Hampshire, because the Democratic candidate (Franklin Pierce) had been governor and was seriously unpopular (but the Whig candidate, an aging military hero Winfield "Old Fuss and Feathers" Scott, chosen as a compromise because the Whigs were split into irreconcilable subfactions, turned into a cantankerous coot under the stress of campaigning, and imploded-- sound familiar at all?)

Dems take both Senate and House

take?

obama keeps all his solids, plus ohio, new mexico, and colorado, but loses new hampshire and every state mccain is within 4 of?

I gave Obama Ohio and Nevada plus his solids.

Hey, Joc. I thought you were going to update the front page?

Obama by a long way. 340-198 ish.

Hey, Joc. I thought you were going to update the front page?

NA is supposed to update his post first. He's late by more than two weeks. I'll kick him in the nuts. Give me a minute.

I'm thinking now that McCain will win the states like Virginia and Ohio because of the GOP's cheating and illegal activities, but that Obama will win states like Arizona and Montana due to the unseen anti-Bradley effect (young voters who don't get polled and new voters etc.) where the GOP never thought to cheat.

The old white guy will win.

I'm voting for Obama, but I don't think he'll win. The Republicans will pull a victory out of their ass somehow.

I'm starting to think the Republicans aren't even going to make any serious efforts to steal states, because they know McCain will lose anyway, and the risk of a Democratic-controlled Justice Department really investigating this time is too great.

You are missing a vote. There are 538 votes total, you only have 537. The electoral college can actually tie 269-269.

I knew I was wrong with the calculation lets see then 269 each for one of my predictions and the other 268 Obama 268 McCain 2 Nader.

Thank you to all those people who replied to my questions and posts in this thread I couldn't quote you all but thanks.

5 days till NA has to impregnate my dog or whatever we bet. Too bad he's abandoned the thread. Must know he's gonna lose, don't you think?

5 days till NA has to impregnate my dog or whatever we bet. Too bad he's abandoned the thread. Must know he's gonna lose, don't you think?

I wouldn't say he abandoned it. He has the bet as his sig.

Whatever states are within a point or two by Saturday night will go to McCain, Obama will carry the rest. Based very loosely on the notion that in the closing days undecideds break for the incumbent, which while there isn't one McCain fills that roll. Though you could argue that Obama has built enough of a sense of inevitability that he'll get that bump.

That is my amended half assed prediction.

Whatever states are within a point or two by Saturday night will go to McCain, Obama will carry the rest. Based very loosely on the notion that in the closing days undecideds break for the incumbent, which while there isn't one McCain fills that roll. Though you could argue that Obama has built enough of a sense of inevitability that he'll get that bump.

That is my amended half assed prediction.

I think the inevitability of the election comes from the polls saying that McBush will lose, quite badly, that a lot of republicans won't bother going out to vote for him because they don't see a point to it - Obama will win anyway, regardless of whether they vote for the old geezer or not. Moreover, my bet is that a lot of the independents who say they'll vote for McCain in a phone call from a pollster, probably won't be bothered going through all the effort to vote for him if they aren't too enthusiastic about him anyway.

However, I'm not thinking this will be the case with Obama. McCain's campaign has energised the GOP base, but not much else. Obama's campaign has been about energising as many people as possible. With this in mind, and the Obama campaigns strong message of getting out and voting even if you think it won't matter, I doubt we'll see many people not going out to vote for Obama because he will win anyway.

Congratulations! You have passed your indoctrination test for membership in the Tinfoil Hat Brigade!:rolleyes:

Democrats are great for prosecuting along party lines, Maineiacs, while covering for their own. The Senate will be filibuster-proof, and there are a large number of people Obama owes who want war-crimes trials against the current incumbents, and a simple cruising of sites like "Daily Kos" and "Democratic Underground" indicate a strong feeling in the very-activist side of the party (The party Obama most owes), along with "Truth Squad" tactics in Missouri (that's using Prosecutors to go after critics of the Obama Campaign), plus the mechanics of the Chicago Machine (which has maintained a monopoly on Chicago politics since the sixties through the use and abuse of the legal machinery, including how Obama got his Senate Seat).

There's also the movement in the Party to reinstate the "Fairness doctrine"-a move that is mainly aimed at silencing conservative radio, since that's the only broadcast medium that isn't heavily slanted to the Left already.

Based on tactics, techniques, availability of weapons (Two years unchallenged with control of both Legislative oversight AND the Executive?), and going on sixteen years of hyperventilating hate? Plus the DEMONSTRATED use of Federally backed forces to suppress domestic groups for having the wrong religious and political views (not necessarily dangerous, just 'weird' is enough), yeah.

The Patriot act provides suspension of Habeas Corpus rights, as well as broad "at will" ability to declare anyone a Terrorist. This, along with the compliant media to ignore it, presents a very interesting situation for someone who's opportunistic and lacks ethical or legal restraints. Combine that with near-exclusive control of Elections Offices by Democratic Party activists...

and then, add Obama's proposed "Civilian Security corps". Okay, yeah, it might not happen, it'd be nice if it didn't, but it can, and unless the man isn't the man he's been in the past, the chances are very high that it will.

And with the spin-machine he's got, you'll be cheering on the sidelines when it does. Anybody that sits there and says "It can't happen HERE" doesn't read their history books.

Democrats are great for prosecuting along party lines, Maineiacs, while covering for their own. The Senate will be filibuster-proof, and there are a large number of people Obama owes who want war-crimes trials against the current incumbents, and a simple cruising of sites like "Daily Kos" and "Democratic Underground" indicate a strong feeling in the very-activist side of the party (The party Obama most owes), along with "Truth Squad" tactics in Missouri (that's using Prosecutors to go after critics of the Obama Campaign), plus the mechanics of the Chicago Machine (which has maintained a monopoly on Chicago politics since the sixties through the use and abuse of the legal machinery, including how Obama got his Senate Seat).

There's also the movement in the Party to reinstate the "Fairness doctrine"-a move that is mainly aimed at silencing conservative radio, since that's the only broadcast medium that isn't heavily slanted to the Left already.

Based on tactics, techniques, availability of weapons (Two years unchallenged with control of both Legislative oversight AND the Executive?), and going on sixteen years of hyperventilating hate? Plus the DEMONSTRATED use of Federally backed forces to suppress domestic groups for having the wrong religious and political views (not necessarily dangerous, just 'weird' is enough), yeah.

The Patriot act provides suspension of Habeas Corpus rights, as well as broad "at will" ability to declare anyone a Terrorist. This, along with the compliant media to ignore it, presents a very interesting situation for someone who's opportunistic and lacks ethical or legal restraints. Combine that with near-exclusive control of Elections Offices by Democratic Party activists...

and then, add Obama's proposed "Civilian Security corps". Okay, yeah, it might not happen, it'd be nice if it didn't, but it can, and unless the man isn't the man he's been in the past, the chances are very high that it will.

And with the spin-machine he's got, you'll be cheering on the sidelines when it does. Anybody that sits there and says "It can't happen HERE" doesn't read their history books.

You've done a very good job at describing the GOP's playbook. They're the ones who are into "you're either with us or with the terrorists". They're the ones who want the right to tap our phones unchecked. They're the one who want to tell people what they can and cannot think. They're the ones who strong-armed the passage of the PATRIOT Act. They're the ones who pushed for the Millitary Commissions Act (which was the act that repealed habeas corpus, not the PATRIOT Act). And DO NOT EVER presume to tell me what I think or would do if your paranoid prediction were to come true. You are not me, you do not know me, you cannot read my mind. NEVER do that again; got it, little man? Now go away, the grown-ups are talking. Come back when you're old enough to vote. I am truly sick to death of teen-agers like you presuming to go off on others as if you actually knew what you were talking about, and of their chest-beating braggadocio. I will not take that crap from some semi-literate High School student.

BTW, Obama has already said that he will not try your precious Commander-in-Chimp or his Puppet Master for war crimes, and I couldn't care less what the Daily Kos says. I don't read it, nor any other blog, no matter which side they're on -- I prefer real news. Perhaps you should stop listening to Rush, Savage, Coulter, et al and start paying attention to what's really going on.

in relevant news, mccain has cut funding for his gotv operation so he can have one last ad blitz. because it's totally going to work this time!

I couldn't care less what the Daily Kos says. I don't read it, nor any other blog, no matter which side they're on -- I prefer real news.

good blogs have much better analysis than the vast bulk of the 'real news', as well as better news coverage of certain types of things.

in relevant news, mccain has cut funding for his gotv operation so he can have one last ad blitz. because it's totally going to work this time!

The Republicans have a nasty habit of comming back even when down in the polls.

I've been wanting to post in this thread several times each day, revise my prediction, add Ohio and Florida to Obama's column one day, give North Dakota back to McCain the other.

Drives me nuts. I wish it was finally Tuesday already. I feel like I'm constantly being ping-ponged between hope and dread.

Drives me nuts. I wish it was finally Tuesday already. I feel like I'm constantly being ping-ponged between hope and dread.

the life of a political junkie must feel awfully similar to the life of a gambler

the life of a political junkie must feel awfully similar to the life of a gambler
I think you are correct. At least I'm currently reminded why I'd make a horrible, horrible gambler and why I only ever make a bet when I know I'm going to win.

Now if you'll excuse me, I'll be over there rocking back and forth.

I think you are correct. At least I'm currently reminded why I'd make a horrible, horrible gambler and why I only ever make a bet when I know I'm going to win.

Now if you'll excuse me, I'll be over there rocking back and forth.

You have nothing to worry about, wittig. I said he was going to win, and as you know, I'm never wrong. (about Presidential elections that have already happened which doesn't apply here.)

Drives me nuts. I wish it was finally Tuesday already. I feel like I'm constantly being ping-ponged between hope and dread.

Same here. For every story about Obama's inevitable win, there's one about McCain's inevitable come back.

Is the list going to be updated?

I am now ready to make my final prediction:

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v625/PIcaRDMPC/nov1st.png

(Alaska goes to McCain. Hawaii, to Obama.)

Final score:

Obama: 364
McCain: 174

Obama victory, of course.

Is the list going to be updated?

NA isn't going to get to it, it appears. I'll walk through it tomorrow morning.

You've done a very good job at describing the GOP's playbook. They're the ones who are into "you're either with us or with the terrorists". They're the ones who want the right to tap our phones unchecked. They're the one who want to tell people what they can and cannot think. They're the ones who strong-armed the passage of the PATRIOT Act. They're the ones who pushed for the Millitary Commissions Act (which was the act that repealed habeas corpus, not the PATRIOT Act). And DO NOT EVER presume to tell me what I think or would do if your paranoid prediction were to come true. You are not me, you do not know me, you cannot read my mind. NEVER do that again; got it, little man? Now go away, the grown-ups are talking. Come back when you're old enough to vote. I am truly sick to death of teen-agers like you presuming to go off on others as if you actually knew what you were talking about, and of their chest-beating braggadocio. I will not take that crap from some semi-literate High School student.

BTW, Obama has already said that he will not try your precious Commander-in-Chimp or his Puppet Master for war crimes, and I couldn't care less what the Daily Kos says. I don't read it, nor any other blog, no matter which side they're on -- I prefer real news. Perhaps you should stop listening to Rush, Savage, Coulter, et al and start paying attention to what's really going on.

What are you worried about? Obama's GOING TO WIN. after which, the question of who he goes after, and with how much force, will ACTUALLY be answered.

Let me tell you again-based on state-by-state polling, and defections from the GOP (likely pre-empting the threat of investigations), Obama's GOING TO WIN.

As much fun as I have, taking the most extreme interpretation (Emulating my counterparts on the other side) the fact is, At the end of the day, Obama's going to win, because Americans don't like to keep the same party in charge, and if McCain were a viable candidate on the national scale, he'd have already won in, like, 1996 or 2000, or 2004.

McCain was the 'sacrifice' candidate for the 2008 elections, we knew this back before the empty-suit Romney dropped out.

Picking Palin was just a way to make things interesting and preserve what was left of the Murkowski Machine in Alaska-by getting rid of the person that was kicking them out of office. She did her job and made the contest look halfway real, and the Democrats did THEIR job by making sure she'll never be viable in any office again. Party bosses on the GOP get what they want (two people who don't do what they're told by The Party rendered irrelevant), the Democrats got what they want (the appearance of a spirited election to help motivate their base), the Bankers got what THEY want (neither candidate will EVER be able to enforce any kind of serious challenge to corporate corruption now-both are up to their eyeballs in enabling and protecting it for the sake of Their Party).

The Press will get what THEY want (to muzzle the alternative press with a renewed, broadened, and aggressive "Fairness Doctrine" that will, in typical fashion, look only in one direction, just as FEC only looks for fraud if it's done by a single party.)

The Bureaucrats get what THEY want (jobs for life, more authority, less effective oversight, and less actual responsibility or accountability).

and the People get what they want- a Nanny state to hold their hands, wipe their noses, tell them when to go to bed and what they can't hear or say lest it offend someone, and how much they are allowed to earn before it's taken from them and given to people who do not, will not, and refuse to, work.

EVERYBODY wins.

how much they are allowed to earn before it's taken from them and given to people who do not, will not, and refuse to, work.

Yes, truly amazing. The way they keep doing it, it's almost as if they think that that was the job of government. You know, governing. Collecting taxes and using them to provide public goods.

CNN is not very reliable.

Picking Palin was just a way to make things interesting and preserve what was left of the Murkowski Machine in Alaska-by getting rid of the person that was kicking them out of office.

Problem. If McCain/Palin don't win, caribou barbie remains governor of Alaska.

Finally, it's up to date. Damn, some of you people are friggin' nuts.

Also, it seems the most popular outcome is 364 to 174.

NA is going down.

For how long, Callisdrun? Now that she's "on the map", how long before the machine can focus on getting her pushed out of office? She's been put on the VP ticket for one reason-so that the Democratic Party (and their surrogates in the media) can do the destroying that the Republican Party couldn't afford to be seen doing to "One of their own" who'd managed to actually repair the brand in a "Stronghold State" after Murkowski screwed it up. Palin walked into the Veep slot with an eighty percent popularity rating and serious claims for reducing costs in-office, and serious reform achievements.

In the space to two months, she's been converted into a drooling CHUD in the minds of the public, over such scandalous things as trying to get a bad cop fired, having religious convictions that she didn't excercise in office, and banning books that weren't even published at the time of the alleged ban...

she's been turned into a goblinesque figure just as the Party Bosses knew she would be, and they didn't get their own hands dirty doing it. Sarah Palin will NOT be the Republican Candidate for Governor at the end of her current term. She's been converted to damaged goods, and any and all actual accomplishments she's had in office have been successfully erased, and replaced with this caricature.

I pick Obama, I say he'll win in double overtime with a field goal and only 4 seconds on the clock.

Final Score: Obama 27 - McCain 24

By this time next year the president will be JOE BIDEN.

Obama wins 360-178

Sudova, you seem to like that tinfoil hat. (Though I admit to agreeing with you that McCain has been a sacrificial candidate.)

Quick query: What if McCain were to somehow win against all odds? Would the Republicans contrive to get both him and Palin out of office somehow and get someone more competent in there?