NationStates Jolt Archive

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_nkorea

So, seems like he's sick. Or maybe dead. Thoughts? Is this good (he was insane) or bad (peace talks)?

Also... DIBS ON THE PUN! YES! :D

Dibbs removed.

Kim Jong Illness.

Huh.


This throws another monkey wrench into the region.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_nkorea

So, seems like he's sick. Or maybe dead. Thoughts? Is this good (he was insane) or bad (peace talks)?

Also... DIBS ON THE PUN! YES! :D

Cool, maybe it will collapse, Korea will be unified under the South Korean government, and Americans will have one less thing to be paranoid about.. It could happen, but a more likely situation is someone gets the Secret Police and the Military on his side and executes the opposition before offically taking power.

but a more likely situation is someone gets the Secret Police and the Military on his side and executes the opposition before offically taking power.

History tells us this is a near garuntee.

Hopefully the guy who takes over isnt...well...insane.

The wrong Dear Leader's being taken out of the picture.

History tells us this is a near garuntee.

Hopefully the guy who takes over isnt...well...insane.

As a history grad student/semi-professor I'd have to agree with you overall. However, history mostly shows that in Communist nations the party selects the new premier out of its own ranks. North Korea is a relatively new case because it's dynastic so far whereas the Soviet Union and the PR of China was/is not... Past dynastic rules have always been Monarchial in which case there was a system to who the heir would be. As the article said, the guy had some sons and the military is going to be vying for power.. My guess is that the military will stage a coup, kill off Kim Jong Il's sons, and establish a military dictatorship. Throughout history, generals have commanded the loyalty of their soldiers over any politician.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_nkorea

So, seems like he's sick. Or maybe dead. Thoughts? Is this good (he was insane) or bad (peace talks)?

Also... DIBS ON THE PUN! YES! :D

It doesn't make sense, why would he fail to show up in front of his soldiers and people if he is so ronery (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDBcGzHAt5Q)? One would think that he'd crave the presence of humans. :confused:

Cool, maybe it will collapse, Korea will be unified under the South Korean government, and Americans will have one less thing to be paranoid about.. It could happen, but a more likely situation is someone gets the Secret Police and the Military on his side and executes the opposition before offically taking power.
Please, China's not about to let its useful land barrier disappear. If Kim Jong-Il dies, another person will be installed.

Il Ill?

Please, China's not about to let its useful land barrier disappear. If Kim Jong-Il dies, another person will be installed.

If Bobby Lee suddenly disappears, we know what happened.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blATSsWknGE

Everyone enjoys having buffer zones. USA has NATO, USSR used to have East Europe, China has Himalaya, jungle, desert, and DPRK. Now, USA has money and NATO, Russia has lots of cold and land, China still has Himalaya, jungle, desert, and DPRK. I don't think they're going to let DPRK fall, as Kyronea said.

As a history grad student/semi-professor I'd have to agree with you overall. However, history mostly shows that in Communist nations the party selects the new premier out of its own ranks. North Korea is a relatively new case because it's dynastic so far whereas the Soviet Union and the PR of China was/is not... Past dynastic rules have always been Monarchial in which case there was a system to who the heir would be. As the article said, the guy had some sons and the military is going to be vying for power.. My guess is that the military will stage a coup, kill off Kim Jong Il's sons, and establish a military dictatorship. Throughout history, generals have commanded the loyalty of their soldiers over any politician.

That's true, but only in those cases where they A) had little or no respect for the mechanism of succession, B) there was no mechanism of succession, or C) the military WAS the mechanism of succession.

NK actually does have such a mechanism, and it was used to install Kim Jong Il. I would further point out that, as near as the scant information we have received goes, military rank in NK is as reliant upon doctrinal soundness as it is upon ability - possibly moreso.

Thus, I wouldn't expect the military to step in unless the People's Congress chooses a complete incompetent - or too fast a reformer.

this could be very good news for the north koreans. a quick transfer of power could help loosen up the whole country.

Also... DIBS ON THE PUN! YES! :DWell played.

The wrong Dear Leader's being taken out of the picture.I'm going to miss Kim less than Bush. At least Bush isn't the modern equivalent of a French Nobleman telling his serfs to eat grass.

this could be very good news for the north koreans. a quick transfer of power could help loosen up the whole country.
Depends who it's to, really.

I don't suspect we'll be seeing American flags waving in the streets of Pyongyang, but if Kim Jong-il were to die and leave a power vacuum, it would certainly lead to a thawing of relations and an opening of North Korean society. Juche is essentially unmaintainable without an embarassingly powerful cult of personality, and it would be damn near impossible to have such a successful cult of personality, no matter how charismatic the new ruler is, without being seen as having the approval of Kim Jong-il's regime.

I suspect, if he really does die unexpectedly, the dictatorship in North Korea will continue, but we'll see it move away from the extreme isolationism of Juche and more towards the Chinese system of communism.

this could be very good news for the north koreans. a quick transfer of power could help loosen up the whole country.

That's what a lot of people hoped when his father died. I think it will be more like Raul replacing Fidel and Cuba staying the same.

That's what a lot of people hoped when his father died. I think it will be more like Raul replacing Fidel and Cuba staying the same.
yeah but at least kim jong il had been running parts of the government for a long time before his father died. he was being groomed to take over the job.

is there a kim 3 to take over from jong il?

is there a kim 3 to take over from jong il?
Kim Jong-chul

I'm going to miss Kim less than Bush. At least Bush isn't the modern equivalent of a French Nobleman telling his serfs to eat grass.

On the other hand, Kim never pretended he was telling the serfs he was protecting them from terrorists if they would eat grass either.

The wrong Dear Leader's being taken out of the picture.

Yeah, if only there was some way for Bush to leave office. Like in the next few months. Oh, and we should get people across the country to participate in choosing a successor!

Yeah, if only there was some way for Bush to leave office. Like in the next few months. Oh, and we should get people across the country to participate in choosing a successor!

A few months is still enough for Shrub to leave a really big flood of shit that whoever gets picked next has to clean up. And if it's John McCain the Bushevik Pod Man then it'll never be cleaned up at all.

And Kim Jong-Il has the rest of his life but there's a good chance that his rule won't end on schedule.

On the other hand, Kim never pretended he was telling the serfs he was protecting them from terrorists if they would eat grass either.
Aye, but swap terrorists for 'evil Yank bastards' and yer basically on the money.