NationStates Jolt Archive

Suppose you have to choose to play 1 of the the 4 games, Assuming no cheating takes place, which of the 4 would you choose?

Game 1, entrance fee 1 dollar
Rules: You call a number, and you roll a dice. If you get what you call, you get 6 dollars.

Game 2, entrance fee NONE
Rules: 6 cards are placed face down, one of which is the queen of spade. You and 5 other person each draws a card. Whoever draws the unlucky queen of spade loses, and have to pay each other players 1 dollar.

Game 3, entrance fee 1 dollar
Rules: You pick 6 numbers out of 42, then 6 numbers are selected randomly by the "RANDOM NUMBER GENERATOR 5000", if you win you get a huge sum of 5245786 dollars.

Game 4, entrance fee NONE
Rules: You flip a coin, and get a 1000 dollars each time you win. You can stop at anytime you win a flip, but if you lose you must continue playing. If and only if you lose 13 times in a row, you will have to pay a huge sum of 8191000 dollars.

Edit: Questions are slightly reworded again after a few complains about the clarity of the rules.

Suppose you have to choose to play 1 of the the 4 games, Assuming no cheating takes place, which of the 4 would you choose?

Game 1, entrance fee 1 dollar.
Rules: You call a number, and you roll a dice. If you get what you call, you get 6 dollars.

Game 2, entrance fee 0
Rules: 6 cards are placed face down, one of which is the queen of spade. You and 5 other person each draws a card. Whoever loses have to pay each other players 1 dollar.

Game 3, entrance fee 25 cents.
Rules: You and 5 million people across the nation each get a number. A number is then randomly selected by the "random generator 5000". Whoever wins gets to take all.

Game 4, entrance fee 0
Rules: You flip a coin, and get a 1000 dollar each time you win. If and only if you lose 13 times in a roll, you will have to pay a huge sum of 8192000 dollars.

Game 4 which I would only play 12 times, then walk away.

Game 4 which I would only play 12 times, then walk away.

Why? The odds of you losing 13 times in a row are enormous - you keep playing until the unlikely event that you lose 12 in a row and then walk away.

Game 4, entrance fee 0
Rules: You flip a coin, and get a 1000 dollar each time you win. If and only if you lose 13 times in a roll, you will have to pay a huge sum of 8192000 dollars.

Game 4, of course. And stopping at the 12 roll. In the worst case I lose 0, in the best case I win 12000.

Btw Barringtonia's idea is even better.

Why? The odds of you losing 13 times in a row are enormous - you keep playing until the unlikely event that you lose 12 in a row and then walk away.

Thats very true. However, meh!:tongue:

Game #1 because I've played that at block parties and actually won a few times.

4.

As you have great chances of making large amounts of money and have the ability to stop long before you have the chance of loosing any money

The expected value of all games is 0 if played continuously.

I would play game 4 and stop some time after winning 1,250,000.

The expected value of all games is 0 if played continuously.I'm not quite sure that's true for game 4.

I seem to get an expected value of about -0.1221; but no guarantees.

I will play 4 because that has more money involved (I like money)

I'm not quite sure that's true for game 4.

You are right it's suppose to be 8191000. Unless there are some other mistakes that I made which I am not aware of.

I'll take option five.

Game 1 and Game 2 are actually identical (in mathematical structure anyway) except that turning over cards and looking at the pictures is more aesthetically pleasing than counting spots on a die.
Game 4 raises the question, "What if I do not happen to have eight point whatever million dollars?" Is the loser enslaved for life? Even so, I am never going to earn that much in this lifespan.

Game 4.

I can predict the results of my coin tosses about 85% of the time.

Game 4, of course. And stopping at the 12 roll. In the worst case I lose 0, in the best case I win 12000.

Btw Barringtonia's idea is even better.

4.

As you have great chances of making large amounts of money and have the ability to stop long before you have the chance of loosing any money

Uh, you can't stop on the 12th roll. You have to keep playing if you lose, according to the OP. If you lose on the 12th roll after 11 losses, your odds of losing the huge sum instantly become 50-50.

I wouldn't play any of them. Gambling against the house is for people who are bad at math. Poker with friends is fun. Betting against the people (the house) who have made an entire industry out of having the better odds -- and that industry is as visibly profitable as Vegas -- is for people who are bad at math and/or can afford to lose money.

Suppose you have to choose to play 1 of the the 4 games, Assuming no cheating takes place, which of the 4 would you choose?

Game 1, entrance fee 1 dollar.
Rules: You call a number, and you roll a dice. If you get what you call, you get 6 dollars.

Game 2, entrance fee 0
Rules: 6 cards are placed face down, one of which is the queen of spade. You and 5 other person each draws a card. Whoever loses have to pay each other players 1 dollar.

Game 3, entrance fee 25 cents.
Rules: You and 5 million people across the nation each get a number. A number is then randomly selected by the "random generator 5000". Whoever wins gets to take all.

Game 4, entrance fee 0
Rules: You flip a coin, and get a 1000 dollar each time you win, but if you lose you must continue playing. If and only if you lose 13 times in a roll, you will have to pay a huge sum of 8191000 dollars.

Minor edit on question 4.

Game 4, and I'd quit at my first win.

Game 4, and I'd quit at my first win.
Just one hit off that crack pipe... you know, to see what it's like....

Uh, you can't stop on the 12th roll. You have to keep playing if you lose, according to the OP. If you lose on the 12th roll after 11 losses, your odds of losing the huge sum instantly become 50-50.

I wouldn't play any of them. Gambling against the house is for people who are bad at math. Poker with friends is fun. Betting against the people (the house) who have made an entire industry out of having the better odds -- and that industry is as visibly profitable as Vegas -- is for people who are bad at math and/or can afford to lose money.

game 4 was edited. so it's safe to say that those posts were before the "you have to keep playing if you lose" rule.

Suppose you have to choose to play 1 of the the 4 games, Assuming no cheating takes place, which of the 4 would you choose?

Game 1, entrance fee 1 dollar.
Rules: You call a number, and you roll a dice. If you get what you call, you get 6 dollars.

Game 2, entrance fee 0
Rules: 6 cards are placed face down, one of which is the queen of spade. You and 5 other person each draws a card. Whoever loses have to pay each other players 1 dollar.

Game 3, entrance fee 25 cents.
Rules: You and 5 million people across the nation each get a number. A number is then randomly selected by the "random generator 5000". Whoever wins gets to take all.

Game 4, entrance fee 0
Rules: You flip a coin, and get a 1000 dollar each time you win, but if you lose you must continue playing. If and only if you lose 13 times in a roll, you will have to pay a huge sum of 8191000 dollars.

Minor edit on question 4.

game 4 was edited. so it's safe to say that those posts were before the "you have to keep playing if you lose" rule.

So that was added? Well, my post still stands. I just don't get to be smug about correcting anyone.

Aw...:$

So that was added? Well, my post still stands. I just don't get to be smug about correcting anyone.

Aw...:$

THIS TIME. tho I think I can post to several threads where you corrected me. so... :tongue:

THIS TIME. tho I think I can post to several threads where you corrected me. so... :tongue:

Yeah, well, for every time I might be right here, I do things IRL like forget why I went outside or leaving my hiking boots at home when heading for a mountain trail. There's such balance in nature.

Interesting idea. Now... for people like me...

Where's the "other" or joke option?

I wouldn't play any of them. Gambling against the house is for people who are bad at math. Poker with friends is fun. Betting against the people (the house) who have made an entire industry out of having the better odds -- and that industry is as visibly profitable as Vegas -- is for people who are bad at math and/or can afford to lose money.

Only because casino games have a negative expected return for the player. In this case the expected return is 0 - the games favour neither the player nor the house.

Only because casino games have a negative expected return for the player. In this case the expected return is 0 - the games favour neither the player nor the house.Except the house has nigh unlimited resources, and so you are more likely to lose all of yours than they are to lose theirs.

So that was added? Well, my post still stands. I just don't get to be smug about correcting anyone.

Aw...:$

Hows about if me where too used bad gramma and spieling then, yooz could correct I?:D

Except the house has nigh unlimited resources, and so you are more likely to lose all of yours than they are to lose theirs.

That's why the number one gamblers rule is:

'Don't gamble with money you can't aford to lose'

There is another way to look at these things other than pure math.

What's the potential impact? What's the level of interest:

Game 1: Likely loss: Trivial. Potential Win: Lunch money. (And in NYC, not a good lunch, either) Interest level: Ehh.

Game 2: Same as above.

Game 3: Certain Loss: loose change from the dryer lint collector. Negligible. Potential Win: Huge. Interest level: High.

Game 4: Potential Loss: Catastrophic. Probable win: Nice, but hardly life changing. Interest Level: Inverse!

Game 3 is the winner.

Only because casino games have a negative expected return for the player. In this case the expected return is 0 - the games favour neither the player nor the house.

Ah, so the activity goes from being a losing proposition to being just pointless. Nice.

Hows about if me where too used bad gramma and spieling then, yooz could correct I?:D

Aw, that's such a sweet gesture! But since I know that the errors are intentional, I can't generate a genuine smug field. Those are produced only when the misspellings are part of some diatribe that attempts to put forward a reprehensible or ridiculous notion -- especially if it contains digs at someone else's intelligence.