NationStates Jolt Archive

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/7522153.stm

22.5% swing away from labour in Glasgow East by-election to the SNP. Thats a huge swing. The only positive note for labour is that the Conservatives have not made any substantial inroads, but if labour can't win their traditional heartlands, they're not just going to be defeated in the next election, but utterly annihilated.

Do people here reckon Gordon Brown will last the year before the party throw him out? This is getting embarrassing. At the moment he looks as weak if not weaker than John Major back in the 90s. Vince Cable said a while back that Brown's leadership had made the transition from Stalin to Mr Bean. If Mr Bean was a non-fictional character, I'm sure he'd now regard that as an insult.

Very interesting set up occuring in the United Kingdom.

Well, Alex Salmond is massively less crap than Prudence Broon. Hell, if I lived in Scotland, I'd probably vote SNP too.

But no, I don't think there will be a change in leadership within twelve months, because I can't see the tories wanting to force a general election. What kind of demented bastard would want to become Prime Minister right now? Even 'Call me Dave' probably has enough brains to realize that he'd be better off letting the UK's problems marinade nicely under Labour's stewardship for as long as possible , so there can be no accusations of mishandling the 'crisis'.

Not that it would make much difference in any case. Blu-labour are a bunch of useless prats too.

22.5% swing away from labour in Glasgow East by-election to the SNP. Thats a huge swing.
Ouch!

I'm not at all surprised Labour lost the seat, but I didn't think they'd be hit this bad. Scottish Labour have had a shit year of it.

The only positive note for labour is that the Conservatives have not made any substantial inroads
Conservatives? Inroads!? In Scotland!?!?

Stop it, you're killing me... :)

Do people here reckon Gordon Brown will last the year before the party throw him out? This is getting embarrassing.
Who'd replace him?

I don't think Labour want to switch leaders this close to an election.

Problems in England?

*Hires Russians to put suit case nuke in Gordon Brown's ass while American Navy prepares to firebomb london in retailation for the Burning of Washington DC*

Who'd replace him?


David Miliband. (LOL).

I don't think Labour want to switch leaders this close to an election.

The smartest thing for the Labour party to do would be to call an election right now and then lose it. So when TSHTF: 1) They can blame the tories for buggering it up far worse than it should have been; 2) Remind people how much better things were under labour - generally - when the next election rolls around.

Sitting in office until 2010 or thereabouts is going to put them on the back foot in a serious way + give the tories a whole new set of 'winter of discontent' movies.

Lac does have a point.

*Laughs at Labour party*

That's a huge loss. How the heck did they manage to F*** up THAT bad?

David Miliband. (LOL).
Well exactly.

There's no-one in Labour popular enough with all the party, nor brilliant enough to turn around the party's fortunes in two years, to warrant there being a leadership battle.

That's why, I suspect, all those ex-Cabinet Blairites (Prescott, Clarke and the rest) who've been sniping at Gordon Brown since he got into power, are suddenly all toeing the line, coming out with all these bizarre press statements praising Brown's 'good nature', 'strong leadership skills' and the like.

Sitting in office until 2010 or thereabouts is going to put them on the back foot in a serious way + give the tories a whole new set of 'winter of discontent' movies.
If the Tories can keep up the pressure for two years. And that's a big if.


That's a huge loss. How the heck did they manage to F*** up THAT bad?
Complete ineptitude by Scottish Labour, combined with a general grumpiness at Brown, populist SNP policies for the last year and the by-election being in one of the most deprived areas in the UK; an area that hasn't seen much improvement since 1997.

If the Tories can keep up the pressure for two years. And that's a big if.


See, I don't think the tories really have do anything. Given the economic outlook and Brown's lack of economic nous, I'm pretty sure that the current front bench will lead the party to self destruction regardless of who's in opposition.

Plus, it would give the labour party a chance to work up some decent left wingedness in the interim. UK politics has been dead boring since Blair took over.

Yes, Labour is in a terrible state. I bet all the party members who fought to get rid of Blair are kicking themselves now.

See, I don't think the tories really have do anything. Given the economic outlook and Brown's lack of economic nous, I'm pretty sure that the current front bench will lead the party to self destruction regardless of who's in opposition.

Plus, it would give the labour party a chance to work up some decent left wingedness in the interim. UK politics has been dead boring since Blair took over.

I agree totally - all Cameron has to do is sit back and watch the country implode. The public will be far more swayed by the increase in fuel and food prices and rising knife crime than they will by a prudent economic balance sheet.
Soon there will be a clamouring to get the Tories IN, and that hasn't happened in a long long time
I am old enough to remember the power cuts and 3 day weeks of the 70's and don't think we are getting too far away from the same causes

It always happens in a bad economy. People always go and vote for the extreme. I don't think the SNP will do them any favours.

But no, I don't think there will be a change in leadership within twelve months, because I can't see the tories wanting to force a general election. What kind of demented bastard would want to become Prime Minister right now? Even 'Call me Dave' probably has enough brains to realize that he'd be better off letting the UK's problems marinade nicely under Labour's stewardship for as long as possible , so there can be no accusations of mishandling the 'crisis'.


Although he's actually daring Brown to call a general election now... I wonder if that's because he believes he won't take him up on it. In any case, unlike even just a year ago when people were predicted the next general election would result in a hung parliament, I think any election now will lead to a massive Conservative win.

Problems in England?


Actually problems in Scotland technically :p

That's a huge loss. How the heck did they manage to F*** up THAT bad?
Because it will have been a few years since the last election. New Labour was in a much better position with the working classes before their bullshit 10p tax rate removal, and Gordon Brown has absolutely no charisma or leadership qualities. I thought this would be a good thing, but having the leader of your country appearing completely unconvincingly on TV to tell you that the economy isn't dying on its knees every other week is pretty poor.

That and the SNP is as socialist as New Labour without being tied to the London-based tabloids' stupid, stupid readers' opinions.

David Miliband. (LOL).
I wish. I'd love to see that smarmy prick's career completely die at the next election.

That's a huge loss. How the heck did they manage to F*** up THAT bad?

Complete ineptitude by Scottish Labour, combined with a general grumpiness at Brown, populist SNP policies for the last year and the by-election being in one of the most deprived areas in the UK; an area that hasn't seen much improvement since 1997.

the SNP is as socialist as New Labour without being tied to the London-based tabloids' stupid, stupid readers' opinions.

Yep, those just about sum it up. Labour were on a 'hiding to nothing' in Glasgow East.. there was never any chance of the result being anything other than a crushing defeat.

I wish. I'd love to see that smarmy prick's career completely die at the next election.

O Yes. He makes my skin fucking crawl. I'd say he'd have yez in another war as soon as you could say "Ethical Foriegn Policy".

Its no surprise really. Its just about impossible for a party in any competitive democracy to stay in power longer than Labour has. People just get sick of them, even if real progress has been made.

O Yes. He makes my skin fucking crawl. I'd say he'd have yez in another war as soon as you could say "Ethical Foriegn Policy".
That and his smug grin just makes me want to smash his face off with a brick. But that might just be me.

That and his smug grin just makes me want to smash his face off with a brick. But that might just be me.
It's not just you. I try to restrain the urges, but there's just something about that man...

Also, kudos to John Mason for managing to get the phrase 'epic win' into a news item on the BBC :)

It's not just you. I try to restrain the urges, but there's just something about that man...
Well that's reassuring.
Also, kudos to John Mason for managing to get the phrase 'epic win' into a news item on the BBC :)
I'd agree, although "Labour, you got pure owned" would have been even better :)

That and his smug grin just makes me want to smash his face off with a brick. But that might just be me.

No, no. You need have no fear on that score.

What I don't understand is how they didn't lose the 2005 general election.

What I don't understand is how they didn't lose the 2005 general election.
It was the Welsh and Scottish who kept New Labour in power. Probably for the best, the Conservatives were very much made up of the Old Guard back then, more so than now.

What I don't understand is how they didn't lose the 2005 general election.

Tory-phobia, so I gather. It seems British people now prefer the taste of Tory lite to the real thing.

What really needs to happen is Proportional Representation though.

New Labor is the party of the petite-bourgeois, the reason that the Conservatives are not filling up the vacuum left by the decline of New Labor is easily enough explained, working class people do not want the return of Thatcherism and the destruction of British industry (what is left of it these days anyway).

The door is wide open for a revolutionary labor party to aggravate for class war against the ruling class and create chaos and terror for them.

Yay, now we've got Andaras on the case he'll lead us to glorious revolution.

It was the Welsh and Scottish who kept New Labour in power. Probably for the best, the Conservatives were very much made up of the Old Guard back then, more so than now.
It was indeed the Welsh and the Scots (but don't blame me, I didn't vote for them).

As noted, the Conservatives were still regarded as old-school and so, whilst they maintained their hold over the whole of what they like to call 'middle England'. Labour won out in the most populated areas, since there was still a deep distrust of Conservative aims and policies in the Northern cities.

There were also a lot of people in Scotland who were extremely wary of what voting for the SNP might mean, long-term, and so they voted Labour. Whether or not that result would be repeated in an election now, after the Scottish population have had a better chance to gauge the competence of the SNP, is an interesting question.

Other than those, the results were pretty much what you'd expect in the UK... even a cursory glance at a mapped result (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:2005UKElectionMap.svg) shows that the Lib Dems continue to hold all the sparsely populated areas while Labour and the Conservatives hold the areas described above.

Yay, now we've got Andaras on the case he'll lead us to glorious revolution.

I can name a few genuine revolutionary communist organizations in the UK just off my head. In fact the great 'Stalinist' Bill Bland I believe was British, a great man.

Yeah, Stalinism rocks. I can't wait until we get our own Gulags in the highlands.

Tory-phobia, so I gather. It seems British people now prefer the taste of Tory lite to the real thing.
More the point, people of my age who are now able to vote didn't live through Thatcher, and reckon that the Conservative Party's membership has somehow drastically changed from the old days.
What really needs to happen is Proportional Representation though.
Fuck no.
New Labour is the party of the petite-bourgeois
Petit-bourgeois, and no, not really. Some of its voters do it from class guilt, others see it as a better option to the conservatives in terms of keeping the NHS etc.
the reason that the Conservatives are not filling up the vacuum left by the decline of New Labor is easily enough explained, working class people do not want the return of Thatcherism and the destruction of British industry (what is left of it these days anyway).
That and that there is not a single conservative policy which doesn't sacrifice the working classes' interests for those of the solidly middle class.
The door is wide open for a revolutionary labor party to aggravate for class war against the ruling class and create chaos and terror for them.
No, it isn't.

I can name a few genuine revolutionary communist organizations in the UK just off my head. In fact the great 'Stalinist' Bill Bland I believe was British, a great man.
Name any with a membership of over 1,000. For bonus points, try to get one whose exec is not made up of people from MI5 or Special Branch!

The door is wide open for a revolutionary labor party to aggravate for class war against the ruling class and create chaos and terror for them.

No it isn't.

Edit: SNAP!

No it isn't.

Edit: SNAP!
Sounds like typical bourgeois fear to me, fear of the unleashing of decades of class hatred onto the exploiters.

Sounds like typical bourgeois fear to me, fear of the unleashing of decades of class hatred onto the exploiters.
No, just a sound grounding in the political history of the UK.

Communist parties here are far more a middle-class hobby than a mass political movement.

But the exploited don't know/don't care.

Sounds like typical bourgeois fear to me, fear of the unleashing of decades of class hatred onto the exploiters.

My fear of an upcoming revolution in the UK lies just below my fear that I'll be killed when a rampaging horde of escaped zoo animals causes the bus to crash on the way home tonight and just above my fear that Hibs were going to decisively beat Barcelona last night and were never going to let me forget about it.

Sounds like typical bourgeois fear to me, fear of the unleashing of decades of class hatred onto the exploiters.

Trust me. If the british working class ever unleashes its decades of hatred, bourgeois capitalist oppressors are a long way down the list.

Freedom for Scotland:D

It always happens in a bad economy. People always go and vote for the extreme. I don't think the SNP will do them any favours.

as they were saying on Any Questions the other day, its the combination of three things that are really leading to a bad state of affairs for the economy and the labour party. 1. oil price rises; 2. food price rises; 3. bubble burst in the housing market. those things, combined with lagging resentment from the unpopularity of the iraq war, have really got people both annoyed and blaming the labour party. which i still feel is a shame.

but i still feel the economy isn't as bad as the media like to make out. but it could be if they keep scaremongering.


the Lib Dems have also come out with more right-wing policies this week, meaning it seems there aren't any major leftish parties in this country any more :(

the Lib Dems have also come out with more right-wing policies this week, meaning it seems there aren't any major leftish parties in this country any more :(

What about the Andaras is never wrong party?

Fuck no.
But it would make BBC Parliament so much more interesting.

Since Blair the Labour Party is no more a " leftist " one.

Doesn't mean it hasn't done good choices...and also some mistakes, at least, the British seems to see this and are trying to fix that.

No, the British cannot do a Révolution, it's impossible...how would they dare stole THIS from us ?! :D

Adding the fact that I don't see why they would do such a thing...having some growings in your nationalists party is something that afraid me more.

But it would make BBC Parliament so much more interesting.
"HULLO UM FROM THE BNP"
"aye gtfo etc."
"FUCK THE MUSLIMS!"
"GUARDS!"
Since Blair the Labour Party is no more a " leftist " one.
Labour hasn't been leftist since Neil Kinnock took power. This is probably a good thing, because otherwise the Lib Dems would have been in power from 1994 until about 2002, and they are not a particularly competent group of people.
Doesn't mean it hasn't done good choices...and also some mistakes, at least, the British seems to see this and are trying to fix that.
Eh people are 'fixing' the problem by voting for parties other than New Labour. It just means we'll have the Conservatives in power in 2 years.
Adding the fact that I don't see why they would do such a thing...having some growings in your nationalists party is something that afraid me more.
The BNP is nothing compared to FN.

Labour hasn't been leftist since Neil Kinnock took power. This is probably a good thing, because otherwise the Lib Dems would have been in power from 1994 until about 2002, and they are not a particularly competent group of people.

Eh people are 'fixing' the problem by voting for parties other than New Labour. It just means we'll have the Conservatives in power in 2 years.

The BNP is nothing compared to FN.

About the Labour Party, I trust you, I admit I wasn't in age of understanding politics in 1992.

Sad what you say about this rush on Conservative...I was hoping Brown could makes a difference, so... no ?
Shit.

About the BNP: yes it's nothing compared to the FN, but it's on the rise, like every far right nationalist party in Europe, except the FN, who have lost third of it's voices on presidential elections ( the only one in wich they had good results... ), and more than two thirds in local elections ( they have not a single deputy or major, now )

Sad what you say about this rush on Conservative...I was hoping Brown could makes a difference, so... no ?
Pas vraiment.

His party has been in power for too long, and people are getting tired of it. Add in the current recession, and Labour are in a very bad position at the moment.
Shit.
Indeed.
About the BNP: yes it's nothing compared to the FN, but it's on the rise, like every far right nationalist party in Europe, except the FN, who have lost third of it's voices on presidential elections ( the only one in wich they had good results... ), and more than two thirds in local elections ( they have not a single deputy or major, now )
The FN is only doing badly compared to its performance in the elections before last, when JMLP got into the second round. It's still much stronger than almost every nationalist party in Europe, apart from the SVP in Switzerland.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/7522153.stm

22.5% swing away from labour in Glasgow East by-election to the SNP. Thats a huge swing. The only positive note for labour is that the Conservatives have not made any substantial inroads, but if labour can't win their traditional heartlands, they're not just going to be defeated in the next election, but utterly annihilated.

Do people here reckon Gordon Brown will last the year before the party throw him out? This is getting embarrassing. At the moment he looks as weak if not weaker than John Major back in the 90s. Vince Cable said a while back that Brown's leadership had made the transition from Stalin to Mr Bean. If Mr Bean was a non-fictional character, I'm sure he'd now regard that as an insult.

Well doesn't everyone say the economic troubles will last... 2 years? It is quite possible that things will pick up till the next election and Brown gets exonerated. Plus, I can't be the only person whom the faces of Cameron and Clegg inspire utter contempt.

My guess is Labour might still lose, but far from disintegrating.

More the point, people of my age who are now able to vote didn't live through Thatcher, and reckon that the Conservative Party's membership has somehow drastically changed from the old days..

By tory-lite, I was actually referring to 'New Labour'. Not too clearly though.


Fuck no. ..

Why the fuck not? Its a fucking Excellent fucking system (in comparison).

The FN is only doing badly compared to its performance in the elections before last, when JMLP got into the second round. It's still much stronger than almost every nationalist party in Europe, apart from the SVP in Switzerland.

What about the Vlaams Belang in Belgium, the successor of the Vlaamse Blok which have been making significant gains in both local and general elections. So much so that in certain areas they have the most seats (although not an absolute majority),

Of course, not that Belgium actually HAS a government at the moment...

Well, the FN didn't own any seat on the Parliament, neither on the regional councils, neither any major of any of our 36000 communes.

So I don't think the FN could be considered as something "powerful".

The only election in witch the FN ever get a great number of votes was the presidential ones, in wich lots of peoples gets used to cast their voices on them in order to " send a message ", nihilistic style ( personnaly, I would rather say " stupid and immature, but it's a personnal opinion... )

In 2002, their was no chance at all that JMLP was elected, even if it was deeply humiliating to see him on the second turn.

So, at his peak, the FN reached more than 15% of the voters, but only on the presidential elections. On local ones and for the Parliament, they never get any power at all, so even if large number of people seems to have agreed with them, mainly old people afraid of Europe and the immigration problem, they were never a powerful political being.

"HULLO UM FROM THE BNP"
"aye gtfo etc."
"FUCK THE MUSLIMS!"
"GUARDS!"
Exactly. There are some genuine nutjob parties that would be far more entertaining than Call Me Dave, Brown and Some Lib Dem Bloke. The Vote for Yourself Rainbow Dream Ticket springs to mind, but I'm sure there's better out there.

In all seriousness, I wouldn't mind PR. I live in a safe (i.e. 2/3 majority) Tory constituency in Essex and in Uni in a safeish (Clegg's!) constituency, and would appreciate having the illusion that my vote actually means something.

Let's be fair. It was a Scottish constituency that Labour just lost. Up in Scotland they have a buoyant and popular SNP government in power and Scottish Labour has basically been in chaotic little pieces for the last few months. I don't think it's as big a deal in the grand plan of things as Crewe and Nantwich was. You can't blame Glasgow East solely on Brown and UK Labour unpopularity.

Either way though, I still think Labour will lose the next election. Brown has what? Two or three years to overcome a 20% poll deficit to the Tories? I doubt that's going to happen with the economy on the slide. It does infuriate me though. I can't believe Cameron will get in simply because he can kick Brown whilst he's down. In my opinion, the Tories haven't done anything to offer themselves up as a credible alternative to Labour. They are just leeching off government unpopularity.

Isn't that what Labour did in the 90s?

Isn't that what Labour did in the 90s?
Yes, also what the Tories did to get into power by the late 1970s.

I don't think it's as big a deal in the grand plan of things as Crewe and Nantwich was. You can't blame Glasgow East solely on Brown and UK Labour unpopularity.
No, you can't, but for Labour to lose a seat in an urban area of Scotland; Glasgow East, nonetheless.

It's like the Tories losing Folkestone and Hythe.

In my opinion, the Tories haven't done anything to offer themselves up as a credible alternative to Labour. They are just leeching off government unpopularity.
Which is why I'm dubious of a Conservative victory, or at least a large Conservative majority.

Folks are pissed off with Labour, sure, and I certainly don't think they're going to stay in power as they are now, but I wouldn't strike off the possibility of a hung parliament or power-sharing deal.