Lackadaisical2
20-07-2008, 03:30
so what would happen if the US withdrew forces from Iraq? Does anyone think that an invasion by Iran would occur? Does it devolve into chaos, with bands like the Mahdi militia, taking control of vast swaths of the country? Or does Iraq band together in the face of a possible invasion?
In my opinion it could be a combination of all 3, with Iran's involvement, beyond sending supplies to support their favorites, being most unlikely. I would expect to see various factions begin fighting against the current leadership of Iraq, assuming that they fail to hold together, these forces would attempt to gain control of the entire country. An exception to this being the Kurds who would probably try to establish their own state, and with other entities in the country in their own turmoil, the Kurds would probably succeed for awhile until they antagonized the Turks. Eventually, the nation would be headed by someone(s) more sympathetic to the Iranians, possibly a slightly smaller, more stable country, having lost control of some provinces to either the Kurds or turks.
I don't believe that the Iraqis would band together, despite their differences, because they are generally long-running disputes which are easily stirred up (see most recent US invasion), and in the case of the Kurds, considerable portions of the population seem to prefer an independent Kurdish state, and wouldn't care for the long term stability of Iraq.
In my opinion it could be a combination of all 3, with Iran's involvement, beyond sending supplies to support their favorites, being most unlikely. I would expect to see various factions begin fighting against the current leadership of Iraq, assuming that they fail to hold together, these forces would attempt to gain control of the entire country. An exception to this being the Kurds who would probably try to establish their own state, and with other entities in the country in their own turmoil, the Kurds would probably succeed for awhile until they antagonized the Turks. Eventually, the nation would be headed by someone(s) more sympathetic to the Iranians, possibly a slightly smaller, more stable country, having lost control of some provinces to either the Kurds or turks.
I don't believe that the Iraqis would band together, despite their differences, because they are generally long-running disputes which are easily stirred up (see most recent US invasion), and in the case of the Kurds, considerable portions of the population seem to prefer an independent Kurdish state, and wouldn't care for the long term stability of Iraq.