NationStates Jolt Archive

Bolivia's Santa Cruz province votes for autonomy from Evo Morales socialist central government. The referendum passed by about 85 % to 15 %, but with a voter turnout of about 60 %.

85 % of 60 % is 51 %.

I will post more accurate official results later.

The provinces of Beni, Pando and Tarija also want autonomy and plan to hold thier referendum in June 2008.

And leaders in two other provinces, Cochabamba and Chuquisaca, are advocating autonomy. Only three provinces have resisted the idea.

What do you think will happen in Bolivia? A civil war? Negotiations? A Coup Detat? Bolivia will split apart into two nations? Who will win, who will loose?

I think a civil war in Bolivia will happen and the nation will split apart in two.

If the four provinces were to unite and become one new nation, it would border Argentina, Paraguay, and Brazil, not sure about Peru.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolivia

Population and ethnic groups according to 2008 Cia World Factbook :

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/bl.html

Santa Cruz Nation will be RP d and open for immigration at a future date no matter what happens in Bolivia.

You really look at the Balkans like a great role model, don't you?

"Gentlemen, I have a problem. We have a problem."

I think they'll try to negotiate first. Balkanization is bad, especially in South America.

Morales can't keep pretending to be Chávez without Santa Cruz, so I reckon he's gonna switch to appeasement mode and tone down his rhetoric and redistribution programs. Of course that also means he can't keep pretending to be Chávez, but hey, there's only one original. And thank the gods for that.

I'd put a wager on civil war, however coup de etat might be more likely. decisions, decisions.

I was born in Bolivia, but I haven't been down there for a while. I personally hate Evo Morales bit I know that there will be no split of nationality. A coup is possible, civil war also possible, as for who wins, I dont know. I just hope its not Morales. Bo bo, Li li, Via via, VIVA BOLIVIA! :mp5:

Sucre de pie, nunca de rodillas!

Morales can't keep pretending to be Chávez without Santa Cruz, so I reckon he's gonna switch to appeasement mode and tone down his rhetoric and redistribution programs. Of course that also means he can't keep pretending to be Chávez, but hey, there's only one original. And thank the gods for that.

Neu Leonstein is the devil

*runs and hides*

A coup by Morales? That would take the little credit (if any) he had left. If the indigenous minority in Santa Cruz helped, maybe he could keep it for a while. Balkanization? (Well, in this case, Andeanization(however, Santa Cruz is not in the Andes, but whatever)) Not sure, but even if, maybe the other districts wouldn't join Santa Cruz, seeing as they're barely making noise. Given it's South America, the likely ending will be appeasement, and maybe that's for the best.

Santa Cruz is a big chunk of land, rich, populous and very able to survive on its own. It is due time that Bolivia began to hand out a federalist system of governance, seeing as different these provinces are. I'd loathe to live in a centralized government as that one; god bless federalism.I hope it all ends well. Buena suerte y autonomía a todos los cruceños!

they will get what they want its not like he rest of Bolivia has a choice in the matter

however the South has been slowly turning into an organized crime hub lately and the governments weakening position will prove to be a boon so it looks like another lose/lose

Let's see, there are several ways this can go.

Chances are, this part of Bolivia may not want to leave but is seeker greater control, a la Quebec. They want a greater say but they still want the privilege of being in a nation.

Negotiations may be the way this will work. Concessions will be made.

Civil war sounds too risky, especially for an impoverished nation.

Thank you Kosovo for all of this utter, utter pish lately, from a newly twatty Abkhazia to Santa Cruz. *sigh*

Ah yes, Santa Cruz...home of the wealthiest latifundistas of Bolivia...where Guarani indians have been found on a number of occasions living as virtual slaves (http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=42210)...the right-wing holdout in a nation gone left. Poor, poor little rich folk, feeling all oppressed.

Excuse me if I do not weep tears of sympathy.

SNIP

well what do you propose the government do?

Ah yes, Santa Cruz...home of the wealthiest latifundistas of Bolivia...where Guarani indians have been found on a number of occasions living as virtual slaves (http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=42210)...the right-wing holdout in a nation gone left. Poor, poor little rich folk, feeling all oppressed.

Excuse me if I do not weep tears of sympathy.

At least they will be able to load their new guns with new bullets when they are crying. In this particular country I think might will make right. Look for negotiations and if they don't go well look for an armed conflict.

Yet another region that wants autonomy. When are we going to se regions that want to join together into something, instead of breaking away from something existing?

Yet another region that wants autonomy. When are we going to se regions that want to join together into something, instead of breaking away from something existing?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union