NationStates Jolt Archive

http://falkvinge.com/2008/03/why-us-is-collapsing.html
"This is the leader of the Swedish Pirate Party explaining how the US went bankrupt in 1971, and has been covering it up through an accelerating whack-a-mole borrowing frenzy that is bursting right now. It has been paying rapidly growing VISA bills using MasterCard and vice versa for 37 years. The creditors are catching up, and the US is about to go extinct as a superpower. Become irrelevant. It is not yet on its death bed, it is still walking, breathing and capable of entertaining a conversation in public. But there are ominous bloodstains on its hands used to cover the painful coughing."

So I Stumbleupon this, and would like a take from General's resident economists. These are just highlights, I suggest you read the (slightly lengthy) link.
The U.S. trade deficit was 763.6 billion dollars in 2006. This means that the United States bought goods and services for three-quarters of a trillion more than it was able to sell to other countries. Where did the US get three-quarters of a trillion dollars to fund this trade deficit in 2006? And an equal amount in 2007? And 2005?

You should start to get the answer by now. It didn't. Part of it came for printing money for foreign cash reserves, predominantly Asian ones. In any case, the US spent that money anyway.

To put this in context, in a list of global trade balances for 164 countries, the US is at the bottom of the list (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2187rank.html). The worst of all measured countries.

How are we getting away with this?

Using a combination of unilateral threats, bilateral agreements of "free" lopsided trade, and multilateral agreements once enough countries had agreed to the terms, an all-encompassing and lopsided trade agreement was devised. It would prohibit third world countries from manufacturing medicine to save lives in their own population. It would make sure that established players, primarily in the US, could outmaneouver upstarts not by building better products, but through the legal framework. The companies in the agreement, such as the record industry, are now lobbying for warrantless searches of people's mail and homes to find out when their monopolies are infringed.

Using a combination of deceit and tricky negotiations, the agreement was signed by many enough countries. That agreement is called TRIPs. The vessel enforcing it is GATT, which was renamed World Trade Organization, or WTO.

Slightly conspiracy-minded. . .

Oh, and you've heard about the crash of 1929? The crash which everybody talked about as the worst in history? That crash saw a mere 27% reduction in the money supply. Compare this with the fact that if the US is forced into going back to a pre-1971, pre-bubble economy, we'll see an 89% reduction in the money supply.

To be absolutely clear: These numbers mean that in a worst case scenario, every working citizen in the US is about to receive an 89% pay cut on average. The best case scenario is hard to predict but I'm betting my money that the money supply will reduce a good bit more than the 27% of 1929.

Is this true, following his earlier assumptions? It's not backed up. With fact, anyway.

One prominent US economics professor recommends immediate investments in precious metals: "gold, silver, and copper-jacketed lead".

Sound advice or no?

The US is already lost. I can think of no action that would prevent its downfall. My fight is for Europe, which has copied every US "intellectual property" policy in what can only be described as cargo cult economics, and risks a similar fate.

Do you agree? I'm not so sure, I think this situation (if truly imminent) is within the realm of fixing.


Finally, and a recurring question of mine concerning the US economy: If things start to fall into the shitter (which they appear to be doing now), where should I move and/or invest my money? Europe, Canada, or somewhere else?

Doom and gloom!!!!

I hope you're wrong.

Swedish Pirate Party?

The United States is nowhere near collapsing. :rolleyes: Just wishful thinking on the part of people that don't like the U.S.

Well, if we fall then the Peoples Republic of Soviet Cannuckistan will take over the world. Be afraid, very very afraid.

Well, if we fall then the Peoples Republic of Soviet Cannuckistan will take over the world. Be afraid, very very afraid.

:eek:

Swedish Pirate Party?

Yeah, they are gay, spending all their time plundering the booty.:D

I don't know enough to make a logical, reasoned argument one way or the other. However, I doubt the United States will "collapse" any time soon. There seem to me to be too many untapped resources and too many crazy people willing to bulldoze everything in their path to tap them.

Furthermore, tl;dr

Swedish Pirate Party?

Apparently their big issue is intellectual property (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pirate_Party).

yet again proving that people will believe whatever they want to believe ;)

and no:

1) debt isn't really a problem as the US won't be retiring anytime soon (though its nice to pay these things off now rather than later)

2) trade deficit means nothing really, exporting more than your importing means little (especially when like the UK the US has mostly invisible trade in things like finance)

3) the WTO is not a US toy if anything its an E.U one :) (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3951229.stm)

4) many nations already produce their own pharmaceuticals (such as when Brazil decided it wasn't going to pay for an aids medication) not that it means anything as this is more expensive first world treatments we are talking about generally when it comes to patents

5) typical whining about the man this time from the record industry

I'm sorry Internet piracy is a hard thing to defend in a court of law (or anywhere unless its just trying the music or something) and so Europe is following the US lead in this

hard cheese for the pirates who get caught

Oh the USA is collapisng. Ill move back to cuba on a raft across 90 miles of shark infested waters.

:eek:

YES, i'm glad you get it! This is a very serious issue thats needs to be adressed, we want RUSSIA to rule the world, NOT Cannuckistan!

I hope you're wrong.

I'm not advocating this guy's thought process. I just wanted to know your reactions.

YES, i'm glad you get it! This is a very serious issue thats needs to be adressed, we want RUSSIA to rule the world, NOT Cannuckistan!

why not have an Alliance? all hail the Soviet republic of frozen tundra! famous for its frozen yogurt

I'm not advocating this guy's thought process. I just wanted to know your reactions.

The US will certainly have significant problems with this in the future, but the guy's figures did seem somewhat unrealistic. The bigger threat is China. Thus speaks the Sinophobe.

why not have an Alliance? all hail the Soviet republic of frozen tundra! famous for its frozen yogurt

I have a better idea. Take ALL the commie countries, join them and name them the Peoples Republic of Soviet Purple. THEN, we give them control of the world.



All hail the PRSP!

Well, if we fall then the Peoples Republic of Soviet Cannuckistan will take over the world. Be afraid, very very afraid.

You can't stop us

http://blog.mutatron.com/CanuckArms.gif

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y110/headwideopen/Soviet_Canuckistan_Flag.png

Like the old saying goes, if you owe the bank $1,000,000, you're in trouble. If you owe the bank $1,000,000,000,000, then the bank is in trouble.

Right now, the bank is in more trouble than the borrower.

The trade deficit? Indicates the strength of the interior in actuality, because the intra-state economy is strong enough to continually import more than export and still have resources left over.

The big problem I see coming is that the US Government won't stop taking loans out on the future. Social security survives by paying today's social security payments with tomorrow's income. Problem is, our younger generations (me) won't be able to keep up with the payments, which could result in the belly-upping of the system, and thus dollar :(

But don't let me fool you, everything is A-OK with Social security :) Yah, whatever...

You can't stop us

http://blog.mutatron.com/CanuckArms.gif

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y110/headwideopen/Soviet_Canuckistan_Flag.png

Take the first one and put two red bars on ether side and that's the flag

You can't stop us

http://blog.mutatron.com/CanuckArms.gif

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y110/headwideopen/Soviet_Canuckistan_Flag.png

*is afraid*

I think the United States is collapsing, but, like all large empires, it could take 100 years before it completely falls apart. I seem to recall the Roman Empire as taking around that amount of time.

In fact, if we view the United States as a fracture state from the original British Empire, then it's already collapsed.

Because the evil capitalist scum control the country. That is why the Amerikkkans are going to fall, their imperialistic oppression of the common man.

Because the evil capitalist scum control the country. That is why the Amerikkkans are going to fall, their imperialistic oppression of the common man.

:mp5:

Not another one!

No, the US is not collapsing. It might go through some rough times in the coming years, but it won't collapse.

Because the evil capitalist scum control the country. That is why the Amerikkkans are going to fall, their imperialistic oppression of the common man.

Riiiiight...:rolleyes:

:mp5:

Not another one!

No, the US is not collapsing. It might go through some rough times in the coming years, but it won't collapse.

I wouldn´t go as far as saying it´s collapsing, but it´s definitely going through one if its toughest times in history. Plus, world-wide opinion doesn´t had the country on a good standing.

What can Americans do to better this situation? Why don´t we let the Americans here tell us what they would do.

Quick Question: Is Eureka Australis Omega Mr. AP? ´Cause it truly sounds like him.:p

I wouldn´t go as far as saying it´s collapsing, but it´s definitely going through one if its toughest times in history. Plus, world-wide opinion doesn´t had the country on a good standing.

What can Americans do to better this situation? Why don´t we let the Americans here tell us what they would do.

Quick Question: Is Eureka Australis Omega Mr. AP? ´Cause it truly sounds like him.:p

There was another guy named Eureka Australis a while ago. He might have been banned. I don't remember. But he does sound a lot like Andaras.

What am I, as an American going to do? Work, save money, maybe stockpile goods in case the shit hits the fan hard. Vote for better leaders, if possible. Other than that, what can the average American do?

There was another guy named Eureka Australis a while ago. He might have been banned. I don't remember. But he does sound a lot like Andaras.

What am I, as an American going to do? Work, save money, maybe stockpile goods in case the shit hits the fan hard. Vote for better leaders, if possible. Other than that, what can the average American do?

Well, that´s all an average American do, exactly what you´re doing.

There was another guy named Eureka Australis a while ago. He might have been banned. I don't remember. But he does sound a lot like Andaras.

They're all the same poster, yes.

They're all the same poster, yes.

Figures...:rolleyes:

Figures...:rolleyes:

n/m, I was wrong.

It was an imposter (http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showpost.php?p=13549200&postcount=3).

n/m, I was wrong.

It was an imposter (http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showpost.php?p=13549200&postcount=3).

Incredibly copycat, though. It fooled me.:p

Incredibly copycat, though. It fooled me.:p

And me.

I think he greatly overestimates the extent of the credit problems in the United States. It may seem hard to believe, but the fact is that most people are managing their debt just fine, even at this very elevated level and that debt-to-income ratios have not appreciated considerably. Are there short term economic problems? Of course. Is this a long term issue that will affect future economic developments, for better or for worse? Yes. Does it mark some kind of fundamental problem in the United States that will only be resolved by a severe economic decline? Absolutely not.

And a trade deficit simply doesn't mean a whole lot either way, as much as people might like to worry about it. Budget deficits are a whole other issue, but by and large a trade deficit merely represents an imbalance in currency valuations and little else; that money doesn't simply disappear, it circulates through the global economy and ends up back in the US in one way or another. A deficit can have some negative effects, such as a weakening of one currency at the expense of another or increased dependence on foreign investors, but given that the end result is win-win, in the form of increased purchasing power in the importing nations and accelerated economic growth in exporting nations, it's hardly a serious problem for either side. In fact, the standard of living in the developed world would be considerably lower, especially for the poor, if cheap goods were not available for purchase from countries like China and India.

The US economy is no closer to collapse than it has been at any time in recent history. Central banks have responded appropriately and contained many of the issues associated with the collapse of the housing bubble, and it is not likely this will translate in to anything more than another recession.

Yeah, they are gay, spending all their time plundering the booty.:D

No, that's Flaming Butt Pirate (http://www.nationstates.net/page=display_nation/nation=Flaming%20Butt%20Pirate).

He should get on more.

Historically, what happens when a country can't pay its debts is ... it doesn't pay them.

The US can still feed itself, it has far more military strength than it needs to defend itself ... you'd do fine as a pariah state.

Don't worry about it.

n/m, I was wrong.

It was an imposter (http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showpost.php?p=13549200&postcount=3).

Kontor claims to be the imposter!

Here, in the "I fail to see how abortion is a woman's issue" thread:

It was me. *sigh* I learned my lesson, i'll never try that again.

and here, as a thread starter:

Sorry about the puppet master thing, I was bored and took it too far. It won't happen again.

This second one is pretty damning. What I quote above is the entirety of the post. People seeing it on the front page are just expected to know what the "puppet master thing" is. No link to the moderation thread, or to any of the puppetting posts. Kontor really seems to think his puny attempt is TEH BIG NEWS.

Oh well, I guess it's an apology at least.

Historically, what happens when a country can't pay its debts is ... it doesn't pay them.

The US can still feed itself, it has far more military strength than it needs to defend itself ... you'd do fine as a pariah state.

Don't worry about it.

Pariah state?

nations, like men, are mortal. reguardless of their idiologies or economic theories, forms of governance nor dominant beliefs.

grand conspiracies not required. just the continuation of printing unsupported currency to bail out the otherwise inevitable consiquences of corporate fraud.

rather a very great deal like bouncing rubber checks.
its somethings governments can get away with in a way, for a while,
but eventually no one else wants their worthless paper.

combine that with having shipped the means of production for the most part off shore and well, i don't think this is a good time to be making unsecured investments based on u.s. currency.

not to mention having thrown out whatever moral reputation it may once have gotten away with pretending to have out with the bath water.

are none of these things absolute forshadowers of doom?
maybe not, but again, nations, like men, are mortal.

and would/will its collapse be all that big bad of a deal?

sure i don't want to wake up under a worse case of some unfamiliar idiology, but reality has it, we've been living under the steadily worsening case of the all too familiar idiology for most of the past ten years, if not 30.

global warming and finiteness of oil reserves are realities too.

i do believe at some point there is going to be an international great depression. because internationally capitolism has becacome a monolithic entity and as a monolithic entity, is not incapable of mortal failure.

will being able to kill more people then anybody else save it? i really don't see how.

hitler had a big army but 'ran out of guns and bullets' so to speak because the u.s. then was able to make more of them faster, partially also, though no one mentions this, because its means of production, unlike the then axis, was almost entirely out of harm's way.

but having shipped that means of production off shore, doesn't that put the u.s. today, in much the position of hitler's military aparatus, which had been to begin with, the most powerful in all history, just as america's is now.

i don't know, there are so many aspects to all this, and i don't see marxism as replacing capitolism, but i do see the u.s. as such, and even capitolism, or at least corporate capitolism as we currently know it, quite perfectly capable of SELF destruction. (and heading, unstoppable juggarnaught like, appearently toward it)

one thing we might see emerge from the dust when it finnaly does collapse is an at least partially soverign united nations, and a balkanization/regeonalization, of what had been the territories of super power governments, the u.s. of course included.

and THAT just might save us, humanity colletively, from ecological self destruction.

it will be interesting to see, whatever actually does happen.

=^^=
.../\...

You can't stop us

http://blog.mutatron.com/CanuckArms.gif

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y110/headwideopen/Soviet_Canuckistan_Flag.png

The first one is too McDonalds-y. Go for the second one.

nations, like men, are mortal. reguardless of their idiologies or economic theories, forms of governance nor dominant beliefs.

grand conspiracies not required. just the continuation of printing unsupported currency to bail out the otherwise inevitable consiquences of corporate fraud.

rather a very great deal like bouncing rubber checks.
its somethings governments can get away with in a way, for a while,
but eventually no one else wants their worthless paper.

combine that with having shipped the means of production for the most part off shore and well, i don't think this is a good time to be making unsecured investments based on u.s. currency.

not to mention having thrown out whatever moral reputation it may once have gotten away with pretending to have out with the bath water.

are none of these things absolute forshadowers of doom?
maybe not, but again, nations, like men, are mortal.

and would/will its collapse be all that big bad of a deal?

sure i don't want to wake up under a worse case of some unfamiliar idiology, but reality has it, we've been living under the steadily worsening case of the all too familiar idiology for most of the past ten years, if not 30.

global warming and finiteness of oil reserves are realities too.

i do believe at some point there is going to be an international great depression. because internationally capitolism has becacome a monolithic entity and as a monolithic entity, is not incapable of mortal failure.

will being able to kill more people then anybody else save it? i really don't see how.

hitler had a big army but 'ran out of guns and bullets' so to speak because the u.s. then was able to make more of them faster, partially also, though no one mentions this, because its means of production, unlike the then axis, was almost entirely out of harm's way.

but having shipped that means of production off shore, doesn't that put the u.s. today, in much the position of hitler's military aparatus, which had been to begin with, the most powerful in all history, just as america's is now.

i don't know, there are so many aspects to all this, and i don't see marxism as replacing capitolism, but i do see the u.s. as such, and even capitolism, or at least corporate capitolism as we currently know it, quite perfectly capable of SELF destruction. (and heading, unstoppable juggarnaught like, appearently toward it)

one thing we might see emerge from the dust when it finnaly does collapse is an at least partially soverign united nations, and a balkanization/regeonalization, of what had been the territories of super power governments, the u.s. of course included.

and THAT just might save us, humanity colletively, from ecological self destruction.

it will be interesting to see, whatever actually does happen.

=^^=
.../\...


If we still have the military edge we might be able to destroy our enemies even while wracked with internal troubles. We also might have enough power to deter any would be aggressors, or the sheer amount of hell breaking loose will scare everyone into staying away.


I can see the US falling into ruin in the next 50 years, but not in the next few years.

I thought it was more due to the US not quite getting over the fact that it's not the only superpower in the world any more, and acting accordingly. Also this strange sentiment that many Americans have that "China are new to the superpower game", or something of that ilk.

Guys - history goes back before 1776. Seriously. China are not new to the superpower game. Whatsoever.

Meh. If you looked at the trade deficit in terms of percentage of GDP rather than an outright dollar figure, things might seem a bit different.

In services the US is running a trade surplus, the deficit partly reflects the move of manufacturing to more efficient locations. It was paid for by foreign investment in the States - and that might be the biggest change after the current crisis is over: a lot of foreign investors lost a lot of money and might be loathe to commit to the same extent in the future. Combined with a weaker dollar that would attract more domestic production and foreign direct investment. That being said, I don't see the US being a net exporter for a long time to come.

And if you want to look:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/US_Money_Supply.gif

Yes, there has been a lot of growth in money supply. But check out M1, the closest to what the Fed actually controls, the closest to what you'd call "printing money". The growth came from the way banks and individuals treat money, from changes in the way people save and make payments and of course greater lending by banks using things like securitisation.

Inflation in the US isn't caused by the government printing too much money, nor is the fall in the US Dollar (at least in the medium to long term - short term falls in the exchange rate are of course influenced by things like the current liquidity injections).

Take the first one and put two red bars on ether side and that's the flag

Here you go...
http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff315/Sarothai/Soviet_Canuckistan_Flag.png

n/m, I was wrong.

It was an imposter (http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showpost.php?p=13549200&postcount=3).

Although as I've pointed out before Eureka Australis=Andaras=Andaras Prime

Because the evil capitalist scum control the country. That is why the Amerikkkans are going to fall, their imperialistic oppression of the common man.

i c wut u did thar

n/m, I was wrong.

It was an imposter (http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showpost.php?p=13549200&postcount=3).

Eureka Australis Omega is a brand of Andaras produced by Soviet Propaganda, which is a subsidiary of Joe Stalin. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Can't_Believe_It's_Not_Butter)

Historically, what happens when a country can't pay its debts is ... it doesn't pay them.

How does that work?

I thought it was more due to the US not quite getting over the fact that it's not the only superpower in the world any more, and acting accordingly. Also this strange sentiment that many Americans have that "China are new to the superpower game", or something of that ilk.

Guys - history goes back before 1776. Seriously. China are not new to the superpower game. Whatsoever.

Yeah, but they're new to being a world superpower in THE NUKULAR AGE!!!!1!!!!!12

Yeah, but they're new to being a world superpower in THE NUKULAR AGE!!!!1!!!!!12
Err, not really, no, they've been a force in the east since the late 1960s.

Err, not really, no, they've been a force in the east since the late 1960s.

...really? B-but I bolded, underlined and italicized.

...really? B-but I bolded, underlined and italicized.
Aww, I know. S'ok.

*pats US education system on the head*

(and yes, I know you were probably joking there :))

Unfortunately that original post is accurate and the poster did his/her homework. That's why a balanced budget is getting more and more important around here, because the ominous shadow is growing larger and threatens to consume all and we still can't snap out of the stupor we've been in since Vietnam.

Oh the USA is collapisng. Ill move back to cuba on a raft across 90 miles of shark infested waters.

You raise a good point. If nobody is fleeing Castro anymore, what of the Sharks? Will they be able to adapt to a refugee free food chain?

We've been screwed since at least 1913. The shit has just begun to hit the fan, and the economy looks like it's got diarrhea coming. (pardon the somewhat graphic imagery, mods!)