NationStates Jolt Archive

Let's say that there's a reasonably competent person who is excellent at predicting things that are to some degree predictable, or has whatever other insight might be required for a particular task. This person has a relatively small sum of money, like $500 dollars that they can blow, and a normal amount of free time. This person wants to take this money, and make it grow between (or average) 50% to %100% every year (i.e. 500, 1000, 2000, 4000, etc for %100) for 25 years.

What are the venues in which this person has the highest probability of making this happen? Like what are the relative benefits of "futures trading" vs "illegal activities" vs "starting a business" vs etc. Support your answer!

DISCLAIMER: This hypothetical question may or may not be hypothetically about me and a hypothetical $500 that I hypothetically may or hypothetically may not hypothetically have hypothetically available to me at some arbitrary hypothetical point in the hypothetically-near future.

Quickest way to make cash is illegal in my opinion. I could give a short list of things one could do with less then $500 at a low risk level. However it would give some kids ideas. As for $500 the stock market has the most potential in my opinion.

I swear to God I would not be surprised if I received an email from the FBI asking if I have any information pertaining the poster writing under the moniker 'Marrakech II' some day.

The quickest way to make money is almost always crime. That being said, you need to weigh not only the immediate risks but also the long-term value of the time, money, opportunity, and social standing lost due to imprisonment. From that vantage point, you're basically stuck with legitimate means of making money.

Quickest way to make cash is illegal in my opinion. I could give a short list of things one could do with less then $500 at a low risk level.Do it!
However it would give some kids ideas.That's the purpose of the thread - to analyze the potential for gain from the implementation of various ideas.

The quickest way to make money is almost always crime.But how possible is it to sustain high returns for a long period of time?

$500 is unlikely to make you rich no matter what you put it into.

id look for collectibles that the owner is unaware are amazingly valuable and offer them a pittance for them.

a 50%-100% return on investment yearly over a period of many years is effectively a myth. sure you might get lucky, but if investments with that kind of return could be in any way accurately, legally predicted, everybody would do it. In fact, if such returns could ever be made with any reasonable likelihood our entire economy would tank.

Inherited wealth is the best way. Use the $500 to find some old spinster.

a 50%-100% return on investment yearly over a period of many years is effectively a myth. sure you might get lucky, but if investments with that kind of return could be in any way accurately, legally predicted, everybody would do it. In fact, if such returns could ever be made with any reasonable likelihood our entire economy would tank.
I fully realize this. I'm just wondering which type of investment has the highest chance of a person getting "lucky".

a 50%-100% return on investment yearly over a period of many years is effectively a myth. sure you might get lucky, but if investments with that kind of return could be in any way accurately, legally predicted, everybody would do it. In fact, if such returns could ever be made with any reasonable likelihood our entire economy would tank.

And a good thing they don't, because if even one person managed to do it, they end up with $500/\25, and I'm pretty sure our banks would be (more) screwed than they already are.

Invest it in a bunch of glass bottles, matches and fertilizer and start a meth lab? If you didn't blow up, get robbed or get your ass kicked by an established business, you'd do pretty well.

Inherited wealth is the best way. Use the $500 to find some old spinster.

Agreed. Buy the nicest suit you can with $500, read up on proper manners, school yourself on a wide variety of subjects (one must be able to converse intelligently about anything), and hang out in places frequented by wealthy older men/women (art museums, gallery openings, the opera, high end shopping centers, etc.). Not that I've given this any thought. ;)

A thought cross my mind. In many states in the USA gambling is outlawed. However, they can play the stock market in the states. Isn't the Stock Market basically legalized gambling?

Take advantage of the intermitant periods of market instability to pick up normally high growth shares at lower prices. High hrowth shares do have a higher risk, but it the strategy I used to turn $100 into $286.31 in a few months

And a good thing they don't, because if even one person managed to do it, they end up with $500/\25, and I'm pretty sure our banks would be (more) screwed than they already are.

Wouldnt that be 500*2^25? I mean yeah, thats still 16 trillion, but its not nearly as ridiculous.

So far we have:


*meth lab (doesn't seem sustainable over long-term; also, ethical considerations make it undesirable to most)

*crypto-antiques (Seems like it might work if one became an expert on antiques, but that may not be something quickly learned)

*gold-digger (Could work, but requires a total commitment of time)

*advantageous transactions of volatile high-growth stocks during market fluctuations. (risky, but possible; requires some self-education on the stock market)


Anything else?

Go to Vegas and place all your money on these colours in this sequence:

Black, Black, Red, Black, Red.

Given you discount the travel costs and put in $500, you'll make $16, 000 in around 30 minutes.

Do it.

a 50%-100% return on investment yearly over a period of many years is effectively a myth. sure you might get lucky, but if investments with that kind of return could be in any way accurately, legally predicted, everybody would do it. In fact, if such returns could ever be made with any reasonable likelihood our entire economy would tank.

I agree, if such an opportunity existed, everyone would do it. The most profitable things are always illegal, of course, as the largest risks one has to take, the higher returns there are. People wouldn't smuggle drugs for a pittance, so the prices of the drug are high, ergo the returns on "investment" are high. However, beign illegal, such things rarely endure, the risk of getting caught etc.

The best long term investments are the ones that have always been popular... agricultural land, metals, buildings, and in the modern era, oil. None of these provide anything like the growth you are talking about, but have traditionally always been seen as sensible places to put wealth.

Short the US Dollar, just at the right point in time. ;)

Anyways, if the guy is really that good at predicting stuff, I'd stick to the stock market or trading commodities directly. Might not make 50% a year, but you can always get a decent amount out.

But to get really, really rich you just have to identify the next Google just before it takes off and buy yourself a stake in it. It's a bet, but it can pay off if you do your research.

Crime pays the best, but it has the highest risk.

A thought cross my mind. In many states in the USA gambling is outlawed. However, they can play the stock market in the states. Isn't the Stock Market basically legalized gambling?

no. its more like poker--a calculated risk that can leave you broke.

no. its more like poker--a calculated risk that can leave you broke.

Poker is gambling

Poker is gambling

no. poker is playing a game for money. if skill affects the outcome, its not gambling.

slot machines are gambling. blackjack is gambling.

no. poker is playing a game for money. if skill affects the outcome, its not gambling.

slot machines are gambling. blackjack is gambling.

Can you find a dictionary definition that will support that view?

Can you find a dictionary definition that will support that view?

i could if it didnt just start an online poker game.

i could if it didnt just start an online poker game.

I don't follow

But how possible is it to sustain high returns for a long period of time?

Very, very hard. Especially since, from a legal point, money gotten from crime is income, and thus taxable.

I don't follow

its hard to look up a good source when i am trying to win a poker game.

I don't follow

anyway.

do you consider that playing any game for money is gambling? is playing gin rummy for money gambling?

no. poker is playing a game for money. if skill affects the outcome, its not gambling.

slot machines are gambling. blackjack is gambling.

It's partial gambling. There's elements of luck and skill involved, as in blackjack and slot machines (although the ratios are different). It's not a pure random chance game but obviously the luck involved puts it firmly in the gambling games section.

It's partial gambling. There's elements of luck and skill involved, as in blackjack and slot machines (although the ratios are different). It's not a pure random chance game but obviously the luck involved puts it firmly in the gambling games section.

yes there is. there is in every game but chess.

but, as wilgrove asked, does that make investing in the stock market gambling?

poker is a game of skill where chance is a large factor. without skill, you will go broke playing poker. (not in any give session but over time)

anyway.

do you consider that playing any game for money is gambling? is playing gin rummy for money gambling?

Yes, because you're risking your money on the outcome of an event which is (partially) beyond your control.

Yes, because you're risking your money on the outcome of an event which is (partially) beyond your control.

then the stock market is gambling?

then the stock market is gambling?

Sure, it just doesn't have the same cultural connotations.

The stock market is not gambling, because it is not based on chance.

If a company gets rich, then its stock rises. It does not get rich by chance. If a company gets poor, then its stock falls. It does not get poor by chance.

The stock market is not gambling, because it is not based on chance.

If a company gets rich, then its stock rises. It does not get rich by chance. If a company gets poor, then its stock falls. It does not get poor by chance.

Sure, there's skill involved. But unless you have all the information (and no one does), you're not in total control.

For example, bookmakers take bets on soccer matches. When Manchester United take on Liverpool on Sunday, millions will ride on the score, red cards, the first scorer etc. There's an element of skill in it - Torres is more likely to score than Pepe Reina and a knowledgable punter might have observed a corner routine that leaves the Liverpool defence vulnerable. However, a better can not be sure how it will play out and therefore they gamble on their hunch paying off.

Wouldnt that be 500*2^25? I mean yeah, thats still 16 trillion, but its not nearly as ridiculous.

Yes, yes it would. That's what I get for being cheeky!

Sure, there's skill involved. But unless you have all the information (and no one does), you're not in total control.
So everything we don't have total control over is gambling? To the same degree?

Playing the pokies is gambling. Playing poker also involves chance, so it's also gambling. Are the two equivalent? What about horse racing?

Investing in the stock market is even less dependent on luck than poker, so is it equivalent to to the pokies?

You can't meaningfully talk about gambling and mean any process in which chance plays a role. It has to mean processes by which one's success depends almost entirely on chance, processes by which you can step away having lost and say "I couldn't have done anything better". That's not the case in poker and it's not the case in investment.

And by the same token one could say that if I bet on a race horse it's gambling but when a professional who knows horses and the scene bets, it's not. At least not to the same degree.

Foreign Exchange and Precious metals can pay well if you know what you're doing, which I doubt you are. :(

Foreign Exchange and Precious metals can pay well if you know what you're doing, which I doubt you are. :(

The risk is huge, though. Forex and commodities can make a nice amount of money, but they are very volatile and you can get burned by swings in the market. I wouldn't recommend going in to commodities or forex unless you've got a lot of other safe investments to protect yourself from getting washed up in a market collapse.

Let's say that there's a reasonably competent person who is excellent at predicting things that are to some degree predictable, or has whatever other insight might be required for a particular task. This person has a relatively small sum of money, like $500 dollars that they can blow, and a normal amount of free time. This person wants to take this money, and make it grow between (or average) 50% to %100% every year (i.e. 500, 1000, 2000, 4000, etc for %100) for 25 years.

What are the venues in which this person has the highest probability of making this happen? Like what are the relative benefits of "futures trading" vs "illegal activities" vs "starting a business" vs etc. Support your answer!

DISCLAIMER: This hypothetical question may or may not be hypothetically about me and a hypothetical $500 that I hypothetically may or hypothetically may not hypothetically have hypothetically available to me at some arbitrary hypothetical point in the hypothetically-near future.
this Hypothetical person should weigh the gains vs the risks in each method or venture and persue the one with the most comfortable gains/risk ratio.

Foreign Exchange and Precious metals can pay well if you know what you're doing, which I doubt you are. :(
Hopefully I will soon. Forex trading is what I want to be doing at some point, but it's not something you want to get into without a lot of training and the support network you need to access all the information that might be necessary. The odd bit of carry trade is fine for individuals (a hint - get yourself a savings account in Australia, for at least the rest of the year it should pay off handsomely), but actually doing futures and that stuff is best left alone for most people.

That being said, I have been looking for a few people to help preparations for an attack on the bolivar. Just wait for a hint of weakness in their foreign reserves and bang - regime change with minimal blood. ;)

Double your money tomorrow by putting it in a bank (or a low-risk mutual fund)!

A penny save is a penny earned, after all!

You can always try multi-level marketing or other "get-rich-quick schemes"...some of them might actually pay off (depending on how good you are at any of them- although I've yet to see any "real" success). At the very least, though, they'll make you believe you can be successful.

Let's say that there's a reasonably competent person who is excellent at predicting things that are to some degree predictable, or has whatever other insight might be required for a particular task. This person has a relatively small sum of money, like $500 dollars that they can blow, and a normal amount of free time. This person wants to take this money, and make it grow between (or average) 50% to %100% every year (i.e. 500, 1000, 2000, 4000, etc for %100) for 25 years.

What are the venues in which this person has the highest probability of making this happen? Like what are the relative benefits of "futures trading" vs "illegal activities" vs "starting a business" vs etc. Support your answer!

DISCLAIMER: This hypothetical question may or may not be hypothetically about me and a hypothetical $500 that I hypothetically may or hypothetically may not hypothetically have hypothetically available to me at some arbitrary hypothetical point in the hypothetically-near future.

Invest it in a antique/collectible (not art). The appreciation is amazing, and tax free (for now anyway). :D

If I were you, I would start dealing drugs at a low level, probably with things like Xanax, Ecstasy, and other designer drugs.

After that, when you got to...say...50,000, buy a small fix-er-up house, then renovate it and sell it for a profit. (may have to wait for a while considering current housing market)

The point is, at some point, you are going to have to change over from illegitimate business means over to completely legitimate, like the Godfather! ;)