NationStates Jolt Archive

Lets talk about it. What do you think it will do with the $500billion free cash it has? Will it ever become democratic? Will it ever invade Taiwan? Will it ever be superpower? Will it ever release Tibet? Lets talk about China. :)

http://www.p2p-weblog.com/50226711/800px-Flag_of_the_People_s_Republic_of_China.svg.jpg

A:PRC means people's republic of china. What you wrote means People's republic of china china.

B:Lets take some of it. yes. NO. Yes. Eventually with international pressure.

A:PRC means people's republic of china. What you wrote means People's republic of china china.

B:Lets take some of it. yes. NO. Yes. Eventually with international pressure.

Heh my personal fave has got to be PIN number!

That is a good one

The PRC of ChinaThe people's republic of China of China?

What do you think it will do with the $500billion free cash it has?It has $500billion free cash?
Well, I suppose they could use it to explore space. It seems to be one of the goals they've set for themselves, and that amount of money should go a lot further in their hands than it would in the NASA's (which probably couldn't buy a nut and a bolt for less)

Will it ever become democratic?They already claim to be, like any communist state. Whether they'll become a liberal democracy; well, I suppose they're on that slippery slope that will end up there. They can't really stop the processes they've started, the only thing they can try to do is not let the transition spiral out of control as it has in Russia.

Will it ever invade Taiwan?Why would they invade their own territory ;)

Will it ever be superpower?It will be an economic superpower in a decade or two; energy crisis notwithstanding.

Will it ever release Tibet?No. I don't think they will. They can't really, it would be like admitting they were wrong. And the Tibetans haven't the resources for a proper war of independence; nor is any other nation on earth inclined to fight it for them.

A:PRC means people's republic of china. What you wrote means People's republic of china china.

Damnit, you beat me to it. The People's Republic of China of China. Which sounds like something out of a Dr. Seuss book.

Heh my personal fave has got to be PIN number!

ATM machine is better, damnit, even if that's where you put in your PIN number.

Heh my personal fave has got to be PIN number!
I once read a ‘DOS for Idiots’ guide, back in the day, and it had: Microsoft MS DOS Disc Operating System. :p

Nations with only one legitimate party are not democracies no matter how many times their leaders jump upo and down screaming that they are.

Lets talk about it. What do you think it will do with the $500billion free cash it has?

Explore space.

Will it ever become democratic?

Not anytime soon.

Will it ever invade Taiwan?

Yes, if the US agrees not to get involved because war with your #1 customer is a big no no, and the US will sell Taiwan out in favor of the huge economic benefits it gets from China.

Will it ever be superpower?

Yes.

Will it ever release Tibet?

No.

Nations with only one legitimate party are not democracies no matter how many times their leaders jump upo and down screaming that they are.

As opposed to nations with only 2 (that arguablly are two sides of the same coin)?

I once read a ‘DOS for Idiots’ guide, back in the day, and it had: Microsoft MS DOS Disc Operating System. :p

You win this thread.

All jokes about the People's Republic of China of China aside, I have to ask: where and when did they get $500 billion? More importantly, where can I get it?

As opposed to nations with only 2 (that arguablly are two sides of the same coin)?

The difference is that if people really wanted to change the system in the U.S we could. The problem is just that people are too lazy to bother.

The difference is that if people really wanted to change the system in the U.S we could. The problem is just that people are too lazy to bother.

Well, when both parties work together to prevent other parties from getting their messege out, theyre not helping.

they will never invade taiwan but taiwan will eventually rejoin the mainland as hongkong has done.

some day they will go back to the confucian system and soon after will dominate the world. by the time of star trek, we will all be chinese or chinese vassals.

Why on earth would Taiwan rejoin the mainland while it is communist. Taiwan is a democracy with a strong economy and a military that will make the Chinese think twice. I know it is small but their military is quite good because they put a lot of time and money into it. No to mention that whole alliance with the USA. Joining a communist state is a losing proposition for them. If china became a true capatilst democracy then I could see it happening.

Taiwan will eventually become a "special administrative region" like Hong Kong and Macau, with its own separate laws and local government.

There is no question about this, in the long term.

Hopefully, as China becomes richer and more open, pull factors will be at work and the Taiwanese will join more or less willingly. Barring any unforeseen and deeply unwise action on the Taiwanese side of the strait, no resolution will come for decades.

China is an endlessly interesting and dynamic place to be right now.

Taiwan will eventually become a "special administrative region" like Hong Kong and Macau, with its own separate laws and local government.

There is no question about this, in the long term.
HK and Macau will only be special administrative regions for another 40 years - SARs are not permanent solutions. It's just a way of 'smoothing' the transition from one identity to another. Although, I do agree with what has been said: Taiwan will be sold-out by the US for advantages over China, as the need will inevitably arise. China will certainly not invade before this happens, though I think it's far more likely it will subjugate Taiwan internally over a period of time... in much the same way that Tibet (and to a limited extent, Hong Kong) is being.

Why on earth would Taiwan rejoin the mainland while it is communist. Taiwan is a democracy with a strong economy and a military that will make the Chinese think twice. I know it is small but their military is quite good because they put a lot of time and money into it. No to mention that whole alliance with the USA. Joining a communist state is a losing proposition for them. If china became a true capatilst democracy then I could see it happening.

The U.S. and Taiwan aren't allies anymore...

Nations with only one legitimate party are not democracies no matter how many times their leaders jump upo and down screaming that they are.

It can be... independent party's status are just for advertising purpose. A rational reason to elect someone to be the president is what he/she stands for and prepares to do for the country. Like atm, the CCP is divided between reformers with intellectual group and the nationalists with conservative group. They may all be affliated with the CCP but what they stand for is quite different. For instance, there are high profile foreign educated members and similiary in status with locally educated ones too.


Lets talk about it. What do you think it will do with the $500billion free cash it has? Will it ever become democratic? Will it ever invade Taiwan? Will it ever be superpower? Will it ever release Tibet? Lets talk about China. :)


http://www.p2p-weblog.com/50226711/800px-Flag_of_the_People_s_Republic_of_China.svg.jpg

1) Increase their military technology strength for example the PRC still yet doesn't have a carrier

2) Difficult to say, depends on which clique within the party gets to control over the country in the future. There are very well known of opposition between reformers and nationalists within the parties.

3) Not likely, unless there will be a much fool-harded political adventurer in taiwan than now to take the presidency.

4) Under the current economical trend, it will certainly be a dominant economic force in asia but can't say for certainty about the rest of the world.

5) Depends on how you mean by "release"... full independence status is highly unlikely under the current political trend. A better political independence from han and beijing than now is possible if there is a more talented and intellectual political group than the current ones.

The difference is that if people really wanted to change the system in the U.S we could. The problem is just that people are too lazy to bother.

To be believe your assumption is true then any country can change it government's system easily - which is not true evidently in Iraq. You are forgetting that social, political and economic structure have become accustomed to shifting between the the democrats and republicans. For instance, different business will have to realign themselves to new political policies - that may even lead to cutting out jobs etc. It's human nature that we grow accustomed to the environment as it takes a more or less permanent shape.

Disturbing the social order without a effective measures may bring anarchy.

HK and Macau will only be special administrative regions for another 40 years - SARs are not permanent solutions. It's just a way of 'smoothing' the transition from one identity to another. Although, I do agree with what has been said: Taiwan will be sold-out by the US for advantages over China, as the need will inevitably arise. China will certainly not invade before this happens, though I think it's far more likely it will subjugate Taiwan internally over a period of time... in much the same way that Tibet (and to a limited extent, Hong Kong) is being.

Actually there have been report by Aljazeera that the PRC have promised to full democracy around the timing 2017 to Hong Kong. Ppl may be skepitical about the validity but the credibility lies that PRC wouldn't dare to harm the economic prospect in HK as the city's prospect is within its high agenda. As long the status quo maintain within the CCP or the reformers gets the better hand it's quite believable as these group wouldn't to lose power over such mismanagement.

The U.S. and Taiwan aren't allies anymore...

US will still protect Taiwan atm if China invades. Don't confuse the current relation strain between US and Taiwan with their alliance. US still have great interest in Taiwan. The only reason why US and Taiwan are having a bad time is that the current Taiwanese government's adventuring agenda in politics against PRC and total mismanagement in the economic sector. It quite likely Taiwan will have a better relation with the US when the current election goes to the more moderate KMT.

Pay off a portion of the United State's national debt? which is now at $9,414,697,238,542.23 . So they don't have to foreclose on the White House. Because that would just be awkward.

Lets talk about it.
Hmm, alright.
What do you think it will do with the $500billion free cash it has?
According to many Chinese students at York College - they're planting lots and lots of trees to soak up pollution and generally prevent the degredation of soil usw.
Will it ever become democratic?
Nah. The last several thousand years of history say to the Chinese "you know what, why bother, you guys rock at being a dictatorship?"
Will it ever invade Taiwan?
Aye, probably.
Will it ever be superpower?
Already has been, absolutely will be in the next 50 years.
Will it ever release Tibet?
Yeah, probably. And then it'll take it back.

Why on earth would Taiwan rejoin the mainland while it is communist. Taiwan is a democracy with a strong economy and a military that will make the Chinese think twice. I know it is small but their military is quite good because they put a lot of time and money into it. No to mention that whole alliance with the USA. Joining a communist state is a losing proposition for them. If china became a true capatilst democracy then I could see it happening.


I doubt anything Taiwan has will make the second largest standing army in the world think twice.

Why on earth would Taiwan rejoin the mainland while it is communist. Taiwan is a democracy with a strong economy and a military that will make the Chinese think twice. I know it is small but their military is quite good because they put a lot of time and money into it. No to mention that whole alliance with the USA. Joining a communist state is a losing proposition for them. If china became a true capatilst democracy then I could see it happening.

Taiwan's little army would last all of a day vs THE PRC military. Yes, they have more advanced weapons, but not because they put a lot of time into it. It's simply due to the fact that the US had dumped billions of dollars into supplying Taiwan with US weapons and technology. Taiwan itself is not the obstacle. The only reason China hasn't marched in and claimed what's theirs is the United State's continued threats that it will dispatch carrier fleets and other military presences should China invade. However, this threat will not always be valid, considering how heavily the US economy now relies on China. Soon it will be more advantageous for the US to be on good terms with China, and when that day comes, its once again One China.

Lets talk about it. What do you think it will do with the $500billion free cash it has?

I expect to see some of it going into buying off internal discontent in the provinces, but most of it going into high tech military applications (a.k.a exploring space and other friendly sounding things).

Will it ever become democratic?

Not in the foreseeable future. China's system changed far less than people think in the revolution, and they will continue to not change much.

Will it ever invade Taiwan?

I don't think there will an out and out invasion, but China and Taiwan will eventually reunite as Hong Kong and Macau have. Carrot and stick will see to it, I think, along with the slow dawning of the fact that the USA will not back Taiwan up if push came to shove.

Will it ever be superpower?

It already is. If by this, you mean that "will the country westernise" then I think not. China's culture is strong and the government is beginning to realise the strengths of playing to feelings of cultural superiority instead of communist ideology, as the state embraces capitalism.

Will it ever release Tibet?

No, I don't think so. It may consider a SAR-like status, though I imagine with less independence than HK and Macau enjoy. I think neither China, nor the world at large want an absolutely separate country, and Tibet could not achieve it by itself, even if the would-be rulers wanted it, which is not so at present.

Taiwan's little army would last all of a day vs THE PRC military. Yes, they have more advanced weapons, but not because they put a lot of time into it. It's simply due to the fact that the US had dumped billions of dollars into supplying Taiwan with US weapons and technology. Taiwan itself is not the obstacle. The only reason China hasn't marched in and claimed what's theirs is the United State's continued threats that it will dispatch carrier fleets and other military presences should China invade. However, this threat will not always be valid, considering how heavily the US economy now relies on China. Soon it will be more advantageous for the US to be on good terms with China, and when that day comes, its once again One China.

Just to certify, are sure that the entire Taiwanese army equiped by the US aren't using obselete Cold War stuff. I have heard that US gave patriot missiles to Taiwan but in terms of aircraft and armored vehicles etc, didn't Taiwan brought Vietnam era's stuff?

What do you think it will do with the $500billion free cash it has?
Loan it to the US.
Will it ever become democratic?
I don't see why. Chinese culture hasn't traditionally valued the individual, so there's no point.
Will it ever invade Taiwan?
Yes.
Will it ever be superpower?
If it spends that $500 billion on ballistic missiles, yes.
Will it ever release Tibet?
Only if it serves Chinese interests, and I can't imagine that ever being true.

The position of the Chinese is that the state is more important than any group within it, and disruptive elements need to be put down. This isn't in direct opposition to traditional Chinese culture, so there's significant sympathy for the authoritarian government among the people in China.

I doubt anything Taiwan has will make the second largest standing army in the world think twice.

Research Taiwan's military. They would lose but the Chinese would suffer huge loses. The Taiwanese Air Force is composed of American made F-15's and 16's. They also use American made helicopters. They have tanks comprable to the chinese in ability. They also have excellent special forces and their military which is all on that little island is over 290,000 strong. Oh and by the way just to show you knwo nothing about the military, a common known fact is that China has the largest military. The USA has the second largest. Then India and North Korea and Russia round out the top five. If you wish to read this for yourself then go to globalsecurity.org

[QUOTE=Llewdor;13537471]Loan it to the US.

I don't see why. Chinese culture hasn't traditionally valued the individual, so there's no point.
/QUOTE]

My old roommate(who is from Shanghai) and I were talking about the stories that were told to us in school when we were little children.

Most of the stories that I heard in school were mostly about not judging people, about how people that seem different are special too, and about how everyone is special in different ways.

My roommate could recall being told stories about individuals that sacrifice themselves for a greater cause. Like soldiers who fight without giving up, and then refuse to surrender even after being captured and put under torture.

I think that pretty much sums up the East and the West today.

Research Taiwan's military. They would lose but the Chinese would suffer huge loses. The Taiwanese Air Force is composed of American made F-15's and 16's. They also use American made helicopters. They have tanks comprable to the chinese in ability. They also have excellent special forces and their military which is all on that little island is over 200,oo strong. Oh and by the way just to show you knwo nothing about the military, a common known fact is that China has the largest military. The USA has the second largest. Then Russia and North Korea round out the top four.
...

Taiwan would just get bombed, shelled or nuked. I don't see why the Chinese would bother fighting them 'properly' when they could just kick their arses and waltz in when the remaining population numbered about 30.

Research Taiwan's military. They would lose but the Chinese would suffer huge loses. The Taiwanese Air Force is composed of American made F-15's and 16's. They also use American made helicopters. They have tanks comprable to the chinese in ability. They also have excellent special forces and their military which is all on that little island is over 290,000 strong. Oh and by the way just to show you knwo nothing about the military, a common known fact is that China has the largest military. The USA has the second largest. Then India and North Korea and Russia round out the top five. If you wish to read this for yourself then go to globalsecurity.org

Yeah, Taiwan has f-15s,16s but you can be China would have the latest Russian Sukhois.

And another thing. Doesn't Taiwan has a lot of mutual defense pacts with other countries. Don't they share millitary equipment with Australia, Singapore and South Korea. What I mean is, if China invaded, would they be fighting just Taiwan, or would most of the Philippines back up Taiwan? Would America back up Taiwan? Would all of NATO?

Yeah, Taiwan has f-15s,16s but you can be China would have the latest Russian Sukhois.

And another thing. Doesn't Taiwan has a lot of mutual defense pacts with other countries. Don't they share millitary equipment with Australia, Singapore and South Korea. What I mean is, if China invaded, would they be fighting just Taiwan, or would most of the Philippines back up Taiwan? Would America back up Taiwan? Would all of NATO?
Taiwan can't really sign mutual defense treaties without being recognised as independent by those other countries, and most countries can't afford to piss off China that much.

There was a bit of a panic some years ago when Macedonia recognised Taiwan.

let's nuke it...

*rides nuke as it descends down to beijing*

WAAAAAHOOOO!!!!!!!!!!

Research Taiwan's military. They would lose but the Chinese would suffer huge loses. The Taiwanese Air Force is composed of American made F-15's and 16's. They also use American made helicopters. They have tanks comprable to the chinese in ability. They also have excellent special forces and their military which is all on that little island is over 290,000 strong. Oh and by the way just to show you knwo nothing about the military, a common known fact is that China has the largest military. The USA has the second largest. Then India and North Korea and Russia round out the top five. If you wish to read this for yourself then go to globalsecurity.org

Yes Taiwan has F-15/16s. And tanks. So what? How many F-15s do you think they actually have? And you think China doesn't have its own military jets? Sides, as was stated before, all China has to do is bombard Taiwan into submission.Not even with nuclear weapons, conventional ordinance will do just fine. China wouldn't "suffer huge losses" taking over Taiwan. A month tops, and it'll be over. And how the hell does China having the largest army show I know nothing? That's been my point duh. China can easily swarm Taiwan. Thank you for proving my point for me.

Yes Taiwan has F-15/16s. And tanks. So what? How many F-15s do you think they actually have? And you think China doesn't have its own military jets? Sides, as was stated before, all China has to do is bombard Taiwan into submission.Not even with nuclear weapons, conventional ordinance will do just fine. China wouldn't "suffer huge losses" taking over Taiwan. A month tops, and it'll be over. And how the hell does China having the largest army show I know nothing? That's been my point duh. China can easily swarm Taiwan. Thank you for proving my point for me.
Taiwan is and island and a rather small one at that, meaning a quick advance or surprise landing, one lost battle, and the whole island would be occupied, think how quickly Japan occupied such islands in WWII.

Taiwan is and island and a rather small one at that, meaning a quick advance or surprise landing, one lost battle, and the whole island would be occupied, think how quickly Japan occupied such islands in WWII.
You don't quickly advance over water, so that's out.

Leaves the surprise landing, which unfortunately isn't as easy in 2008 as it was in 1941. Taiwanese radar would know Chinese ships' locations as soon as they leave port. Taiwan has a full complement of the usual anti-shipping missiles, which will pick off transports from 160km away. The range is of course longer if the missiles are fired from planes.

And knowing the conditions of a fight on Taiwan, the ROC army is basically a specialised urban combat force which trains entirely with the PLA in mind as opponent. So they'd be well-prepared.

Basically, any conflict between the two would be a stalemate in which both sides fire missiles at one another. Of course, it wouldn't just be between the two but also between the PRC and Taiwan's allies.

Taiwan is and island and a rather small one at that, meaning a quick advance or surprise landing, one lost battle, and the whole island would be occupied, think how quickly Japan occupied such islands in WWII.

Yes but Taiwan has the capablity to defend itself better then the japanese garrisons. Besdies the Chinese do not have the amphibious vehciles to get across the strait of Formosa. If they try air invasion the Taiwanese SAMs will cut them to pieces. A bombardment can easily be handled by counter battery fire. The chinese won't be strictly targeting military targets. That means that the Taiwanese can use a new radar that is out that traces artillery shells origions. Then they return fire and destroy the chinese artillery batteries. And the Taiwanese have the MLRS. This is the most advanced artillery/indirect fire equipment currently in use in the world. In the two gulf wars the Iraqis nicknamed it "Steel rain"The chinese navy is a piece of crap. The taiwanese navy would actually give them a run for their money. Especially if a US Nimitz class carrier happened to be in the area supporting them

F-15's are better then anything the Chinese have. In fact they are far superior. When directed by an AWACS the Taiwanese would be able to beat up on the Chinese aircraft. The chinese don't ahve AWACS yet. F-16's are the best fighter/bombers in the world.

If China tries to take Taiwan they probably will but they will get a very very bloody nose. That will make them think twice.

You don't quickly advance over water, so that's out.

Leaves the surprise landing, which unfortunately isn't as easy in 2008 as it was in 1941. Taiwanese radar would know Chinese ships' locations as soon as they leave port. Taiwan has a full complement of the usual anti-shipping missiles, which will pick off transports from 160km away. The range is of course longer if the missiles are fired from planes.

And knowing the conditions of a fight on Taiwan, the ROC army is basically a specialised urban combat force which trains entirely with the PLA in mind as opponent. So they'd be well-prepared.

Basically, any conflict between the two would be a stalemate in which both sides fire missiles at one another. Of course, it wouldn't just be between the two but also between the PRC and Taiwan's allies.

Finally someone who knows what they are talking about.

Who exactly would the PRC's allies be anyway? DPRK? Russia wouldn't get involved with Chechnia ongoing.

Taiwan's allies? USA still want in maybe? Other NATO countries like Britain maybe? Japan? South Korea if the DPRK gets in on this? India trying to make a bid for power in south east asia? Israel and South Africa have worked with Taiwan before.

Finally someone who knows what they are talking about.

Who exactly would the PRC's allies be anyway? DPRK? Russia wouldn't get involved with Chechnia ongoing.

Taiwan's allies? USA still want in maybe? Other NATO countries like Britain maybe? Japan? South Korea if the DPRK gets in on this? India trying to make a bid for power in south east asia? Israel and South Africa have worked with Taiwan before.

If you honostly, for a minute, believe that the US would squander its huge economic relationship it has with China in favor of Taiwan's democracy, you are very naive.


Economics always win out over ideals. Thats the way the world works.

I went there about two years ago. I liked the place overall, the people were nice. I felt safe there, not a lot of crime. It could very well become a superpower and I shudder to think of the consquences that will be bring. Say what you will about the US but at least the US is democratic and respects human rights for the most part. I think eventually the people will get sick of opppression and Tibet and Tiawan could become free one day and China could be a democracy. But like with everywhere else in the world, this change must come from brave people who stand up and say enough is enough.

I went there about two years ago. I liked the place overall, the people were nice. I felt safe there, not a lot of crime. It could very well become a superpower and I shudder to think of the consquences that will be bring. Say what you will about the US but at least the US is democratic and respects human rights for the most part. I think eventually the people will get sick of opppression and Tibet and Tiawan could become free one day and China could be a democracy. But like with everywhere else in the world, this change must come from brave people who stand up and say enough is enough.

In China said brave people tend to disappear.

I went there about two years ago. I liked the place overall, the people were nice. I felt safe there, not a lot of crime. It could very well become a superpower and I shudder to think of the consquences that will be bring. Say what you will about the US but at least the US is democratic and respects human rights for the most part. I think eventually the people will get sick of opppression and Tibet and Tiawan could become free one day and China could be a democracy. But like with everywhere else in the world, this change must come from brave people who stand up and say enough is enough.

Yes, enough is enough! We want capitalist tyranny!

Heh my personal fave has got to be PIN number!

I always got a kick form "ATM Machine". And non-English place names can be fun too (as the OP has discovered):
"Rio Grande River"
"Mukogawa River" (g/kawa is river in Japanese)

If you honostly, for a minute, believe that the US would squander its huge economic relationship it has with China in favor of Taiwan's democracy, you are very naive.


Economics always win out over ideals. Thats the way the world works.

I understand that economy is important. But I belive that the treaty we have with Taiwan is still in effect. Correct me if I am wrong. If I am not though there would be a big public outcry I think for us to honor our treaty with them and protect democracy. That is as long as Iraq and Afghanistan are mildly setteled at the time and we have troops availble.

Yes, enough is enough! We want capitalist tyranny!

I'd rather live in a capitalist democracy than a dictatorship of the prolitarit with no respect for human rights.

In China said brave people tend to disappear.

true, but this is because the masses as it were don't demand change. If it was more than just a few people, the government could fall.

I'd rather live in a capitalist democracy than a dictatorship of the prolitarit with no respect for human rights.

You mean bourgeois rights, correct?

You mean bourgeois rights, correct?

No, I mean HUMAN rights. In that I believe every human being on the planet has natural right not to be killed, tortured, imprisoned or degraded regardless of the justification. Nothing IMO is a valid reason to treat others as a mean to an end. I would rather live in poverty and have the ability to speak my mind and to not be abused than have everything I need but live in fear for my life.

No, I mean HUMAN rights. In that I believe every human being on the planet has natural right not to be killed, tortured, imprisoned or degraded regardless of the justification. Nothing IMO is a valid reason to treat others as a mean to an end. I would rather live in poverty and have the ability to speak my mind and to not be abused than have everything I need but live in fear for my life.

Actually if you wanna talk about the UN conventions, one of the most important is the 'right to work', something which capitalism disallows systematically by keeping a reserve pool of unemployed labor.

Actually if you wanna talk about the UN conventions, one of the most important is the 'right to work', something which capitalism disallows systematically by keeping a reserve pool of unemployed labor.

the so called "right to work" is a dreamed up "social right" by the USSR. No sane invidiual considers it an actual human right just as no sane individual would rather be tortured or executed than be unemployed.

The chinese won't be strictly targeting military targets. That means that the Taiwanese can use a new radar that is out that traces artillery shells origions.


These two sentences have no logical connection with one another.


Then they return fire and destroy the chinese artillery batteries.


Counter artillery fire has been as old as catapults. Shoot and scoot tactics have been used since people figured out artillery towers. Nothing new here.


And the Taiwanese have the MLRS.


Which would be near useless in a static shooting match between China and Taiwan. Only the MGM-140 payload has the range necessary to cross the 120km across the straits to China, and its a big fat missile. Everything else would be hitting water before they hit land. China has enough cruise missiles of its own to match it.


The chinese navy is a piece of crap.


The Chinese navy is for the most part, a brown water navy meant for coastal operations. But that doesn't mean they aren't ramping up.

A war today would have their navy hopelessly outclassed. 20 years down the line when they finally get that Russian carrier refitted? Probably not.


F-15's are better then anything the Chinese have. In fact they are far superior. When directed by an AWACS the Taiwanese would be able to beat up on the Chinese aircraft. The chinese don't ahve AWACS yet. F-16's are the best fighter/bombers in the world.

Quantity trumps quality. Especially when its overwhelming quantity. Soviet Russia proved that when it trashed Nazi Germany.


If China tries to take Taiwan they probably will but they will get a very very bloody nose. That will make them think twice.

China doesn't have to take Taiwan today or even by force. They simply have to continue to develop economically, and put the US further into debt. Eventually, jobs in Taiwan will emigrate to mainland China, and it will simply fall back into the fold. The US won't make a peep.

What do you think it will do with the $500billion free cash it has?

Use it to hold off it's looming economic crisis.

Obviously, China has massive cash reserves. These may not be massive enough to cover the financial crisis, but they are sufficient to allow the government to put off addressing the problem for a while. China also has the ability to promulgate rules and regulations that allow bankrupt entities to continue functioning. However, it always must be remembered that on the other side of a bad loan is a damaged creditor. A loan that can be deferred by fiat is an asset that can no longer be used. When you avoid economic disaster for the debtor, you transfer the pain — and potentially the disaster — to the creditor. And since the creditor is normally the economically healthier entity, you postpone the death of the weak by weakening the strong. The more you do this, the worse it becomes. Thus, whether the Chinese use cash reserves to postpone the problem or use regulation to do so, the net result will be buying time at the cost of increased pain.
http://www.stratfor.com/china_crisis_and_implications

In addition to it's inflationary problems, there's the pending pensions disaster (http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2005-04-19-china-social-security_x.htm), the environmental disaster, the "boy baby bomb", several restive ethnic populations and a number of other socio-political-economic problems that I expect will come to a head in the next 20 years.

Will it ever become democratic?

I expect there to be another one of China's periodic episodes of civil war and chaos, followed by another period of a broken China, as has also occured several times throught Chinese history. Some of the fall out states will be democratic.

Will it ever invade Taiwan?

Not likely. As some others have mentioned, it currently does not have the capacity to do so. If the PRC manages to steer it's way through the above crises, then I believe that at some point Taiwan may come back into the fold.

Will it ever be superpower?

Magic 8-ball says... "Very doubtful."

Will it ever release Tibet?

Mmmm... again, doubtful, unless the above scenario comes to pass.

You don't quickly advance over water, so that's out.

Leaves the surprise landing, which unfortunately isn't as easy in 2008 as it was in 1941. Taiwanese radar would know Chinese ships' locations as soon as they leave port. Taiwan has a full complement of the usual anti-shipping missiles, which will pick off transports from 160km away. The range is of course longer if the missiles are fired from planes.

And knowing the conditions of a fight on Taiwan, the ROC army is basically a specialised urban combat force which trains entirely with the PLA in mind as opponent. So they'd be well-prepared.

Basically, any conflict between the two would be a stalemate in which both sides fire missiles at one another. Of course, it wouldn't just be between the two but also between the PRC and Taiwan's allies.

Indeed.

[QUOTE=Non Aligned States;13538004]These two sentences have no logical connection with one another.
[QUOTE]

Quite true. i jsut got ahead of myself.

I think that Taiwan is better then most of you are saying. Like one guy pointed out. It is built to fight the PLA. The key to larger numbers is the ability to inflict massive casualties. Which the Taiwanese would do if China ever came across Formosa(which I agree is unlikely). First with defenses on shore or anti-air defenses. Then in urban combat which the Chinese aren't prepared for.

I still want to know who Taiwan and the PRC's allies are. Does anyone know?

Quite true. i jsut got ahead of myself.

I think that Taiwan is better then most of you are saying. Like one guy pointed out. It is built to fight the PLA. The key to larger numbers is the ability to inflict massive casualties. Which the Taiwanese would do if China ever came across Formosa(which I agree is unlikely). First with defenses on shore or anti-air defenses. Then in urban combat which the Chinese aren't prepared for.

Why would you think urban combat is not something the Chinese are prepared for? They spend all their time devising the best means of taking out Taiwan and it's hard to believe that they'd not think of the possibility of urban combat.

Regardless, war between the two is never going to happen and relations between the two armies are far deeper than the US would care to imagine although I'd also find it hard to believe that the US are not aware of the enormous amount of military technology transfer between the two - China know every aspect of the Taiwan defense.

Taiwanese and Chinese generals play golf with each other in Shenzhen, they gamble with each other in Macau and if anyone thinks that Taiwan is closer to the US than with China then they're greatly mistaken.

I still want to know who Taiwan and the PRC's allies are. Does anyone know?

China's main support would come from S.E. Asia nations if only that they will not get involved - for example, Thailand refusing to allow US military anywhere near it, certainly not allowing it to be used as a base of operations.

Japan may have to side with the US but I think they would strongly oppose any escalation and therefore try to act as a mediator.

Taiwan has no real support outside of the US, at least of any real significance - I guess NATO nations will have to at least pretend to support but ultimately I cannot see the international community getting too involved - a lot of talk, little action.

It's all highly unlikely anyway so much of this is speculation until one thinks of the steps that occur to make it happen.

Actually I was just looking at this and i found some stuff about how Taiwanese people feel. I found it quite interesting that soemthing like 10% of people there are infavor of becoming the 51st state of the USA. One Taiwanese nationalist group for some reason tried to prove in US court that Taiwan is under american jusridiction because of the treaty that ended the war with Japan. It was dismissed.

The USA and Japan are both obligated to coem to the defense of Taiwan if a war were to break out. That is why Clinton sent 2 carrier groups when there appeared to be trouble in 1996. I suppose Britain and Australia would show up just becuase America is there.

The chinese army is far to large to be prepared for urban combat immediatly. It like the US army before Iraq was not well prepared for urban combat.

Just interested in what you think India would do if a conflict arose. Would they join sides with Taiwan to please the USA and gain favor for India over Pakistan? India if they joined(which i doubt they would) would make things very interesting. Hypothetically what do you think India would do if it joined either side and what would be the result(please nobody saying India won't because I just agreed with you.)

The key to larger numbers is the ability to inflict massive casualties.


There comes a time where no matter how fantastic your kill ratio is, if your enemies have greater quantities than that projected kill ratio, you're going to lose. Nazi Germany had some of the best equipment the world had ever seen. Jet fighters, superior tanks, the first true assault rifles, they had the world beat in military tech. They couldn't compete against the superior numbers the Soviets could bring to bear though.

Of course, all this is rather pointless. China is not very likely to go to war with Taiwan, nor is Taiwan going to fully declare independence.

You forget the fact that Germany had Hitler leading it and it was like the in thing for the major powers to fight germany.

Cluster bombs. That is how you defeat numbers. The new ones are jsut wicked. that or a good old daisy cutter;)

Just interested in what you think India would do if a conflict arose. Would they join sides with Taiwan to please the USA and gain favor for India over Pakistan? India if they joined(which i doubt they would) would make things very interesting. Hypothetically what do you think India would do if it joined either side and what would be the result(please nobody saying India won't because I just agreed with you.)

I think this is a good question, what would India do?

I suspect they'd send troops to the border, if only as a precautionary matter. I'd need to check some figures but I think trade is far greater with the US than it is with China although I know China and India have made great strides over the last couple of years. I just can't see India wanting in any way to get into a conflict with China though, I just can't see it so I expect heightened alert and troop movement would be about it.

The real question is whether India would allow the US to, say, land an air force there, have a few ships docked in territorial waters.

Asking this question raises far more questions I suppose - a conflict between China and Taiwan would very likely create serious tensions in the region and I suspect it would escalate Pakistan and India as a side.

Yeah it would make things quite interesting. If India somehow got into the war then the side they are on would gain a couple aircraft carriers. More important for the chinese I think to combat US carriers.

What about the DPRK and the ROK?

I think worst case scenario is China invades and it spins out of control and within 1 month World War III has begun.

the so called "right to work" is a dreamed up "social right" by the USSR. No sane invidiual considers it an actual human right just as no sane individual would rather be tortured or executed than be unemployed.
Unemployment stagnates the individual into nothingness, it's worst than torture in many ways, not only does it enforce horrible social stigma and poverty, it cages the individual to apathy and indifference, and wastes away his potential for development, this is how capitalism works. Full employment empowers the individual to high spirits and action and purpose, he can move forward helping his community rather than being subject to the dehumanizing and degrading experience of feeling like your an economic unit who is practically worthless, instead it gives each individual worth through collective action. Capitalism is horrible because it makes everyone completely alone, completely atomized, no human wants to live such a life.

Unemployment stagnates the individual into nothingnessNo it doesn't. People can have a lot of worthwhile interests to pursue even in unemployment. There is nothing wrong with staying at home and raising the kids, if that's what brings someone fullfilment in life.
And once you pass the age where you can do labour this doesn't mean one suddenly becomes nothing.

it's worst than torture in many ways, not only does it enforce horrible social stigmaThe only stigma is the one you, and funnily enough libertarians, are trying to create.

Full employment empowers the individual to high spirits and action and purposeOnly if it is not alienating work (which is, I know, a communist point of critique as well). But even given that, a person may have other, more personally significant, interests in life than work. Private life is much fuller than it was in Marx's time. Someone might prefer working half as much and spend more time with the family, or traveling, or studying.
Forcing one conception of the good on people is exploitation (another point communist are supposed to be against).

he can move forward helping his community rather than being subject to the dehumanizing and degrading experience of feeling like your an economic unit who is practically worthless, instead it gives each individual worth through collective action.Of course, I hope you realize that every communist state to date has failed, spectacularly, in this respect.
Not to mention that individual worth is easily lost in collectivity, because there is risk viewing people merely is part of the whole, without intrinsic worth on its own.

Capitalism is horrible because it makes everyone completely alone, completely atomized, no human wants to live such a life.Ah, that must be why there are no capitalist states, and we're all living in a happy funfilled communist paradise..


19th century communism is really, really passe. The situation today is not what it was then, and even communist theory has moved on. Catch up. Modern communist theory is not this estranged from the world.

Damor if your going to use that atrocious historical revisionism and anti-communist diatribe, then you might as well stop typing now, I have no time for such people.

Damor if your going to use that atrocious historical revisionism and anti-communist diatribe, then you might as well stop typing now, I have no time for such people.We've noted your strong aversion to supported arguments. No need to repeat that.

Damor if your going to use that atrocious historical revisionism and anti-communist diatribe, then you might as well stop typing now, I have no time for such people.

Andaras, your frustration with people's different points of view is exactly why communist states always fail.

People are different, accept that. While you do, you might want to try and be a little different yourself, the world cannot be reduced to a simple ideology.

Not everyone is happy being a contributing member of society and, further, society is not necessarily best served by everyone being a happy, contributing member.

Competition between difference, the variety of ideas that arises from that is important - that doesn't mean capitalism is the best way forward but what is the best way forward is acceptance and you're simply not showing that.

Yes but Taiwan has the capablity to defend itself better then the japanese garrisons. Besdies the Chinese do not have the amphibious vehciles to get across the strait of Formosa. If they try air invasion the Taiwanese SAMs will cut them to pieces. A bombardment can easily be handled by counter battery fire. The chinese won't be strictly targeting military targets. That means that the Taiwanese can use a new radar that is out that traces artillery shells origions. Then they return fire and destroy the chinese artillery batteries. And the Taiwanese have the MLRS. This is the most advanced artillery/indirect fire equipment currently in use in the world. In the two gulf wars the Iraqis nicknamed it "Steel rain"The chinese navy is a piece of crap. The taiwanese navy would actually give them a run for their money. Especially if a US Nimitz class carrier happened to be in the area supporting them

F-15's are better then anything the Chinese have. In fact they are far superior. When directed by an AWACS the Taiwanese would be able to beat up on the Chinese aircraft. The chinese don't ahve AWACS yet. F-16's are the best fighter/bombers in the world.

If China tries to take Taiwan they probably will but they will get a very very bloody nose. That will make them think twice.


Actually, China is currently in the process of converting Russian made cargo transports into AWACS planes as we speak. And you keep talking about how great the Taiwanese defense is, but you forget one major detail. Taiwan is barely a percentage the size of China. Yes, Taiwan has anti-missile defenses. But none of these are perfect. Even the US does not have a perfect anti-ballistics defense system. And even if Taiwan did, how many can they actually shoot down? What if china launches 100 missiles? The defense system might stop 40 at best.

"F-15s are far superior". Uh, No. The new generation of Russian Migs and SUs have been consistently giving the US a run for their money in terms of military aircraft. A Mig-29 of comparable outfitting as an F-15 would not be an easy opponent for the US Air Force.

And why are you mentioning a Nimitz carrier? The whole discussion is IF THE US DID NOT STEP IN.

And having a bloody nose will make China think twice? Not likely. When's the last time China stepped down from a fight? They have consistently fought with little regard for military losses.

Also, You stated that the US would continue to support Taiwan if China invaded. This is simply not true. The US is doing everything possible to prevent such a situation, because it knows that if it really came down to military action, the US will not be able to take any decisive steps. The US public is already sick of war from Iraq. How many do you really think would support another overseas war where more US troops can go die for politics? Plus, an escalated war with China will invariably result in heavy losses for the US. I don't think any US president is ready to be labeled the guy who cost a few million lives just so he can claim he "kept Taiwan's independence".

Competition between difference, the variety of ideas that arises from that is important - that doesn't mean capitalism is the best way forward but what is the best way forward is acceptance and you're simply not showing that.

Don't you see? He can't show acceptance. Denial is ingrained into every one of his posts.

However, deeper research into Andaras's posting history indicates his willingness to not only engage in, but enjoy capitalistic activities. This strongly indicates that his stance is no different than a mentally undeveloped child's way of crying for attention, by making as many delusional posts in as loud a manner as possible to get people to pay attention, thereby feeding a sense of self worth.

Don't you see? He can't show acceptance. Denial is ingrained into every one of his posts.

However, deeper research into Andaras's posting history indicates his willingness to not only engage in, but enjoy capitalistic activities. This strongly indicates that his stance is no different than a mentally undeveloped child's way of crying for attention, by making as many delusional posts in as loud a manner as possible to get people to pay attention, thereby feeding a sense of self worth.

I don't know I guess, I've seen some real wit and fun out of Andaras before, it's not really fair to discuss him here but it's just been really, really boring of late to come across his posts and watch the thread derail.

There's a difference between extolling the virtues of communal economies and trashing any opinion different to one's own.

Almost as boring as the PRC government can be - I can actually do a fairly amusing mimic of the way Chinese government people talk, stilted, emphasis laden, jargon heavy speeches that send you to sleep.

So different to the lively wit, deep sense of history and culture and general joie de vivre of most Chinese people.

百花齐放，百家争鸣

The real question is whether India would allow the US to, say, land an air force there, have a few ships docked in territorial waters.
Why would the US need to? Okinawa with its very large US military bases and forward deployed parts of the 7th Fleet is MUCH closer to Taiwan than India, and China knows this. The US would have to respond to any invasion on the part of the PRC, there's too many laws and treaties for the US not to and not suddenly worry major allies who would then wonder just how much they can count on US support. From the sound of it, I'd say Australia and Japan (If Fukuda gets that SDF bill rammed through like he wants to) will also respond as well.

Besides, the US will keep Taiwan from rattling China too much and China knows that why a number of places are economically reliant on it, the reverse is true as well. The PRC has also found that soft power is carrying far more weight in the current world than military might and I don't see them rocking any boats anytime soon.

Actually, China is currently in the process of converting Russian made cargo transports into AWACS planes as we speak. And you keep talking about how great the Taiwanese defense is, but you forget one major detail. Taiwan is barely a percentage the size of China. Yes, Taiwan has anti-missile defenses. But none of these are perfect. Even the US does not have a perfect anti-ballistics defense system. And even if Taiwan did, how many can they actually shoot down? What if china launches 100 missiles? The defense system might stop 40 at best.

"F-15s are far superior". Uh, No. The new generation of Russian Migs and SUs have been consistently giving the US a run for their money in terms of military aircraft. A Mig-29 of comparable outfitting as an F-15 would not be an easy opponent for the US Air Force.

And why are you mentioning a Nimitz carrier? The whole discussion is IF THE US DID NOT STEP IN.

And having a bloody nose will make China think twice? Not likely. When's the last time China stepped down from a fight? They have consistently fought with little regard for military losses.

Also, You stated that the US would continue to support Taiwan if China invaded. This is simply not true. The US is doing everything possible to prevent such a situation, because it knows that if it really came down to military action, the US will not be able to take any decisive steps. The US public is already sick of war from Iraq. How many do you really think would support another overseas war where more US troops can go die for politics? Plus, an escalated war with China will invariably result in heavy losses for the US. I don't think any US president is ready to be labeled the guy who cost a few million lives just so he can claim he "kept Taiwan's independence".

Actually F-15's are far superior to most of China's aircraft. The majority of their air and naval forces still use the Mig-21.

Actually the whole discussion is not if the usa did not step in. And by law it is mandated in both Japan and the USA that if the mainland launches an attack on Taiwan then both countries are obligated to go to Taiwan's defense. The president would be required by law to do something. It doesn't have to be big but it does ahve to happen.

A mig-29 with F-15 fittings would still get manhandled by the US Air Force. It is the new plane. Maybe you've heard of the F-22. Have you seen the numbers from the Red Thunder exercises at Nellis Airforce base? The ratio of F-15's shot down by F-22 to F-22's shot down by F-15's is above 90:1. And that is against American Air Force pilots. What will they do to Chinese air force?

Why would the US need to?

Simply the threat of two fronts, stretching resources - if I was looking to create a warning I wouldn't merely consider a direct confrontation.

Sure it didn't work for Sauron but Saruman was an idiot.

Don't you see? He can't show acceptance. Denial is ingrained into every one of his posts.

However, deeper research into Andaras's posting history indicates his willingness to not only engage in, but enjoy capitalistic activities. This strongly indicates that his stance is no different than a mentally undeveloped child's way of crying for attention, by making as many delusional posts in as loud a manner as possible to get people to pay attention, thereby feeding a sense of self worth.

All I want to know is what is wrong with Capitalism? It works better than Communism.

Simply the threat of two fronts, stretching resources - if I was looking to create a warning I wouldn't merely consider a direct confrontation.

Sure it didn't work for Sauron but Saruman was an idiot.

Very good analogy actually. I don't think the USA would be providing the second front though. Why not just ahve india send it's massive army into Tibet and southern China.

Very good analogy actually. I don't think the USA would be providing the second front though. Why not just ahve india send it's massive army into Tibet and southern China.

...because they're as useless as Saruman?

To be serious though, I'm not really considering an actual invasion, merely to make China think twice if they get aggressive.

All I want to know is what is wrong with Capitalism? It works better than Communism.

The problem with capitalism is that it survives solely on growth to sustain itself. Pure competition means efficiency becomes paramount to gain a competitive advantage, greater profit needs to be made to compete.

This comes at a human cost, not everyone is highly competitive and as the bar rises, more and more people slip through the net.

The economics of capitalism aren't sustainable because, at some point, the masses don't have the money to support the elite.

Currently, we've continuously found new areas of growth and efficiency, through new markets and new technology respectively but, like the world's resources, we'll run out at some point.

Despite that, creating a world driven on efficiency, on creating monetary value, leaves many people feeling hollow and unfulfilled, a life narrowed down to individualism.

Between one and the other, capitalism has had a very good run, probably has quite a ways to go, but we need to seriously reconsider our purpose in living at some point and the sooner the better.

I don't know I guess, I've seen some real wit and fun out of Andaras before, it's not really fair to discuss him here but it's just been really, really boring of late to come across his posts and watch the thread derail.


It's pretty much predictable anyway. Tripe, straw man, borderline flaming, mod report, tripe, rinse and repeat.


So different to the lively wit, deep sense of history and culture and general joie de vivre of most Chinese people.


Well, you have to remember that these are political Chinese who jibber jabber so much. Politics makes people unfunny.

Simply the threat of two fronts, stretching resources - if I was looking to create a warning I wouldn't merely consider a direct confrontation.

Sure it didn't work for Sauron but Saruman was an idiot.
If I was going to open up a second front, the Indian fronter would not be the place to do it. I mean, if the US invaded over the Himalayas, it might take a while before anyone noticed. ;)

Quite true. Just pay off Russia by giving them part of China if they invade. Now that would be one ugly mess bringing Russia in. Millions of casuatlies nwo because of two armies that seem to like quantity over quality in recent history

Quite true. Just pay off Russia by giving them part of China if they invade. Now that would be one ugly mess bringing Russia in. Millions of casuatlies nwo because of two armies that seem to like quantity over quality in recent history

China will get parts of Russia before Russia ever gets an acre of china.

The cossacks will play second fiddle to their future Chinese masters by the end of the century, more likely than not.

China will get parts of Russia before Russia ever gets an acre of china.

The cossacks will play second fiddle to their future Chinese masters by the end of the century, more likely than not.

Why would Russia want bits of China anyway? Most of it is damn poor. Sure, there are plenty of coal mines, but Russia's gas supplies trump that.

Sounds like the deal on Chinese land is like a snake oil deal.

I doubt anything Taiwan has will make the second largest standing army in the world think twice.

Which is no. 1, India?

Taiwan's little army would last all of a day vs THE PRC military. Yes, they have more advanced weapons, but not because they put a lot of time into it. It's simply due to the fact that the US had dumped billions of dollars into supplying Taiwan with US weapons and technology. Taiwan itself is not the obstacle. The only reason China hasn't marched in and claimed what's theirs is the United State's continued threats that it will dispatch carrier fleets and other military presences should China invade.

Taiwan currently has superior aircraft (though not by much, they haven't been upgrading recently whilst China has been on an aircraft buying spree) and a sizeable fleet, which would cause great problem for a chinese invasion force. You're also forgetting that any kind of military action by China would force Japan (and maybe even India, South Korea and a few other asian mainland/south-east asian countries) to up their military.

Does Taiwan have a large reservist force? I seem to remember some kind of conscription there.

they will never invade taiwan but taiwan will eventually rejoin the mainland as hongkong has done.

some day they will go back to the confucian system and soon after will dominate the world. by the time of star trek, we will all be chinese or chinese vassals.Yeah right, my plans already have a basic guide in them on how to deal with China and on how to conquer Europe and install a radical government there where the idealism of Western Christian cvilization will reign and all the world will convert to it or fall forever.

Maybe you've heard of the F-22. Have you seen the numbers from the Red Thunder exercises at Nellis Airforce base? The ratio of F-15's shot down by F-22 to F-22's shot down by F-15's is above 90:1. And that is against American Air Force pilots. What will they do to Chinese air force?
Well the U.S.A would have to get the plane to Japan on cargo ships (the F-22 naval version failed)...

Which is no. 1, India?

Iran, IIRC. If you include its paramilitaries.

Which is no. 1, India?



Taiwan currently has superior aircraft (though not by much, they haven't been upgrading recently whilst China has been on an aircraft buying spree) and a sizeable fleet, which would cause great problem for a chinese invasion force. You're also forgetting that any kind of military action by China would force Japan (and maybe even India, South Korea and a few other asian mainland/south-east asian countries) to up their military.

Does Taiwan have a large reservist force? I seem to remember some kind of conscription there.

Actually they do. They have the ability to call up about 3 million reservists that ahve already served in the past like 20 years.

As to the things about China and Russia I do agree for the most part. However a prot farther south than vladivostok would be desirable for the russians.
Siberis is more valuable then that port though. I could see china eventually attempting to take siberia. Chian and Russia haven't had the friendliest relations since the rise of the comunist government in china. And military spending will not bring them together because the chinese are buying more and more from europe instead of russia

Well the U.S.A would have to get the plane to Japan on cargo ships (the F-22 naval version failed)...


They can fly it to japan. the F-35 will work jsut as well against the chinese fighters. The navy and amrines are getting those. Along with the airforce to supplement their F-22 force.

Yes if you count reserves Iran ahs the largest military. However it is Currently as follows for the top 5 militaries in size:
1. China(it is not 2 as some people ahve posted)
2. USA
3. India
4. DPRK(Norht Korea)
5. Russian Federation