NationStates Jolt Archive

Reflecting on recent events, I've come to the conclusion that the global political, military and financial situations are more unstable than they have been for an extremely long time. Now, I'm not going to argue that a genuine Depression is developing, that is something that is hard to predict, and is off on the sides. I'm also not going to say that a war is likely with or without a depression, as that is not yet visible.

I would reflect that this instability could have an immense impact. Certain events, especially those pertaining to the Balkans, ad those pertaining to Iran, have seemingly hardened the line coming out of an increasingly assertive Russia, and NATO. In the recent Democratic debate, for example, Obama was asked how he would react if Russia were to commit ground forces to helping Serbia retake Kosovo (ominous stuff), and he didn't give a clear answer. Further, Putin's consolidation of power is mildly alarming, to see Russia take steps back from democracy and liberty is not positive.

Further, negative economic indicators in the US continue to disturb, and especially when dealing with the costs of oil globally, and increasing global demand, it would seem that the general global economy is not as decoupled from the US economy, as many would like to believe. A depression is unlikely, but it has become plausible, in my view.

How could these two factors impact each other? That's the question I'm asking you folks. How do you view the likelihood of either?

I suppose if the depression you describe does occur, then war is more likely, but what type of war is harder to define.

Putin does worry me, as does Bush but hopefully his type of politics will disappear with a new president.
I reckon if the US can improve public relations between itself and China, then if Russia was going to do something daft it would have to contend on multiple fronts.
I think encouraging independance in various countries across the world that desire it will help reduce chances of a large power bloc war. Yet terrorist wars and techno wars could increase in number of incidents globally.

If anything causes a depression it will be oil in my opinion, but regardless of this, I am fairly certain now that Putin is all talk and wont do shit, but even if they do I'm not sure that we should bother to intervene, it's not like we are formal allies with Kosovo or anything, and I doubt he will go all Hitler on us and suddenly make his plans to expand very clear.

If anything causes a depression it will be oil in my opinion, but regardless of this, I am fairly certain now that Putin is all talk and wont do shit, but even if they do I'm not sure that we should bother to intervene, it's not like we are formal allies with Kosovo or anything, and I doubt he will go all Hitler on us and suddenly make his plans to expand very clear.

I think what's important about Kosovo is the fact that it has been a long-term NATO project, as long as any other NATO project, with the exception of the initial "Keep the Russians out, Germans down and Americans in" goal. Also, the significance of what could happen if we don't stand up for Kosovo, in the face of Russia. How then, could we guarantee the Poles, the Czechs or the French and Germans that we'd stand up for them?

Also, continued regional tensions with the Baltic states, and the Ukraine make it so that Russia is playing a different role than its played ever before, especially with the expansion of NATO to the borders of Russia...Might Putin be feeling surrounded? What impact could that have, alongside a resurgent oil-driven Russian economy?

I think what's important about Kosovo is the fact that it has been a long-term NATO project, as long as any other NATO project, with the exception of the initial "Keep the Russians out, Germans down and Americans in" goal.

True, I think if Russia were to invade it definitely would have very negative consequences not only for Kosovo but for geopolitics in general. If NATO just does a league of nations (i.e. not do shit), then it will set a bad precedent of course. But then you also have to weigh in how unbelievably catastrophic a war with Russia would be.


Also, continued regional tensions with the Baltic states, and the Ukraine make it so that Russia is playing a different role than its played ever before, especially with the expansion of NATO to the borders of Russia...Might Putin be feeling surrounded? What impact could that have, alongside a resurgent oil-driven Russian economy?

Again, realistically I doubt that Putin has the guts to start WWIII.

Again, realistically I doubt that Putin has the guts to start WWIII.

In this, I certainly agree with you.

It would require a significant deterioration of the Russian strategic position, or an embarrassing tactical domestic defeat for such an action to even seem plausible, but the events of the past few months have taken on a greater geopolitical significance than I would have thought just a few short years ago.

Again, realistically I doubt that Putin has the guts to start WWIII.

But does he have the Stupidity and the audacity?

I find all such thoughts can be forgotten with Cabaret incidentally.

However, this is what happens when there are too many countries vying to be top dog.

It makes sense to me - if people are depressed, they act out. It's time to start airlifting Prozac to the rest of the world.

In all seriousness, while depressions to lead to wars, it's usually only when they're severe and prolonged. The indicators don't seem to be in for a lengthy depression.

what indicators are these?
Do you mean increasing freedom of the market place and general democratic practises being carried out worldwide (as in enacting universal suffrage)?
I think there's potential for a depression to kick in, if the world population increases much more, a few timely famines and floods and things could be very different.

It makes sense to me - if people are depressed, they act out. It's time to start airlifting Prozac to the rest of the world.

In all seriousness, while depressions to lead to wars, it's usually only when they're severe and prolonged. The indicators don't seem to be in for a lengthy depression.