NationStates Jolt Archive


Will the Imperial Dollar be Dethroned?

Venndee
01-02-2008, 19:48
The US Dollar is the reserve asset of the world, and has been since the system of Bretton Woods. Even despite chronic trade imbalances, budget deficits, and Nixon's closing of the gold window that made the dollar irredeemable, its role in the world economy has been preserved. However, the dollar has in recent years been steadily declining, holdings in euros have risen, and now with the looming recession which may already be in progress, it seems to me that America's perpetually loose monetary and spendthrift fiscal policies will result in the dollar's eventual replacement by the euro as the world's reserve asset. Do you think the dollar will remain in its place, or will it indeed be dethroned?
Law Abiding Criminals
01-02-2008, 20:05
Not just yet. I think that, if there's some sound economic policy back home, and it won't come overnight, the dollar will pick back up, and trust in it will stop dwindling.

That, and there has to be a really compelling reason to change the standard currency. So far, I don't see one.
Andaluciae
01-02-2008, 20:26
While I do feel that the position of the dollar as the world's reserve asset has been weakened, I am not entirely convinced that there is sufficient reason to concern ourselves overmuch with a transition (especially to the Eurodollar) yet.

It remains that there is an immense amount of political disunity within the European Union, with the member states remaining comparatively quite independent, both politically and militarily. I feel that for the Eurodollar to be considered sufficiently superior to dethrone the dollar, not only would a basic degree of military unity need to be developed (specifically a joint nuclear command), but also the EU must pass a constitution of some sort or another. Without this (or a total and complete 1929-esque meltdown of the US economy), the Eurodollar will not replace the US dollar as the world's reserve currency for an extremely long time.

Further, the problems of the dollar are widely seen as temporary, and the result of poor decisions made by the current, temporary executive, and not reflective of any significant structural flaws in the US economy.

There's also no real reason to make the change right now.
Andaluciae
01-02-2008, 20:28
Of course, I oppose using the US dollar as the world's reserve asset, rather, a more appropriate choice would be pudding: Specifically the kind you can buy in a gigantic can at Sam's club.
Londim
01-02-2008, 20:41
Well we know that this:

http://www.visitnumber54.co.uk/images/pound%20sign.gif

Rules all. :p
Llewdor
01-02-2008, 20:50
I feel confident in asserting the US dollar will cease to be the world's reserve asset...

...some time in this century.
Lunatic Goofballs
01-02-2008, 20:56
Well we know that this:

http://www.visitnumber54.co.uk/images/pound%20sign.gif

Rules all. :p

I never noticed this before, but it looks like a bird's head with a spike embedded in it. :p
Entropic Creation
01-02-2008, 20:59
The dollar will never be replaced as 'the worlds reserve currency', rather we are seeing a transition to holding a basket of currencies. Holding a mix of currencies from nations with independent central banks committed to economic stability provides the greatest long-term stability.

Since many nations around the world have currencies pegged (officially or not) to the dollar, almost every commodity is traded in dollars, and the US is still the world's largest economy, so holding dollar delineated assets makes sense.
This is not likely to change anytime soon.

Of course, if politics in the US stays the way it is, with idiotic voters supporting candidates who pander to the masses with shortsighted policies, the currency will continue to fall and the economy will stagnate, in which case any intelligent person will shift out of dollar assets.
Intracircumcordei
01-02-2008, 21:02
Currency really doesn't have a value other than what it trades at..

As far as a trade currency the US is a REALLY BAD choice, because of the way it "owns" it's currency.

I'm all for FIAT, melt and all that until mining technology unviels my lavaforge, to spin off precious metals from "magma wells" bassoliths or what have you. There is so much of that junk really it is geothermal energy the next gusher industry.. fabircation of low weight hard material. That and mass production of carbon waffers etc..

but anyway.. back to the topic.

CAD is general on PAR with the USD and I think with oil trading high and canada being a petrodollar.. .. with oil prices tied to the US economy -- it pretty much means the cad should only nudge up against the US until waste spending and writeoffs and better economic growth against the PANASIATIC come into play

really it is the CHINESE that have the most motion for growth.. and if they choose to dump more US reserves then it erally only strenghtens their currency which they have been reluctant to do for reasons of trade benefits.

But I thik the EURO is coming in as the EURASIAN currency of choice.. it just makes more sense.. where as I think that The Americas may be more prone to use USD as a trade current (and maybe parts of africa) until the AU, (PANPACIFIC get their own major trade dollars going...

but why? It really is just how much you pay.. the EURO is stronger which means less weight in non wire transfers. But you can only use it where it is taken right... EURO has all of europe now or a large chunk ofit now vs the USwhich has maybe 3 or four locations on standard.


PS by owns I mean the Federal Reserve owns - but you have US troops running around and confiscating it when they invade countries.. they probably wouldn't recognize a euro.. safer maybe.. like disguiding gold inside a painting cause barbarians can't see value in that(perhaps that is totally mistaken not meant to be offensive to US troops, just a statement of opinion)
Londim
01-02-2008, 21:05
Do you not understand? It's all part of the plan! Our birds will have spikes in them to restore the power of the British Pound! Nothing scarier than a Spiky Magpie flying down at you.
Intracircumcordei
01-02-2008, 21:13
I never noticed this before, but it looks like a bird's head with a spike embedded in it. :p


Sorta looks like a weird giant E to..
Venndee
01-02-2008, 21:31
The dollar will never be replaced as 'the worlds reserve currency', rather we are seeing a transition to holding a basket of currencies. Holding a mix of currencies from nations with independent central banks committed to economic stability provides the greatest long-term stability.

Since many nations around the world have currencies pegged (officially or not) to the dollar, almost every commodity is traded in dollars, and the US is still the world's largest economy, so holding dollar delineated assets makes sense.
This is not likely to change anytime soon.

Of course, if politics in the US stays the way it is, with idiotic voters supporting candidates who pander to the masses with shortsighted policies, the currency will continue to fall and the economy will stagnate, in which case any intelligent person will shift out of dollar assets.

I imagine that something like SDRs will become the reserve currency since this takes away the dysfunctionality of the double-coincidence of wants caused by multiple fluctuating currencies, instead of just one currency, while simultaneously giving the issuing country an advantage in redistribution of wealth since its currency cannot depreciate against competing currencies and thus leave it relatively weakened versus other competing states.
Plotadonia
02-02-2008, 01:48
Part of it is that the dollar needs to be dethroned. For too long now American manufacturers have had an impossible time selling their production abroad, and America's economy has become so firmly imbalanced in high knowledge tasks that a large portion of the population and a large portion of the United States has started to lose it's value. It hasn't gotten really bad yet, but it would've. By the dollar declining, it has become much easier for foreigners to buy American goods, services, and raw materials. This is quite a blessing at the moment, as while our consumption side has been collapsing, part of the reason that we may avoid a large portion of what we otherwise would've suffered is because our production base is gaining momentum.

Factory orders are up, new foreign plants are starting up in the Old South, the Southwest, and other hospitable regions, and productivity is soaring to a point where America's high labor costs are more then made up for by the incredibly low cost of moving materials in and out of industrial sites here, along with our, by global standards, relatively low taxes.

The Europeans of course are in the opposite situation - they're going from too much production and too little consumption to being more like the United States, where being better able to buy exports from abroad is a substantial plus. As such, I can say with all confidence that this has been a win-win deal for both sides.
Port Arcana
02-02-2008, 01:53
Yes. I'm already urging my parents to invest in either the Euro or the British Pound Sterling. :D
Steely Glintt
02-02-2008, 02:01
I never noticed this before, but it looks like a bird's head with a spike embedded in it. :p

It's a symbolic of the Uks refusal to ever submit to any kind of avian overlord.
Gravlen
02-02-2008, 02:06
Mark my words: It will soon be replaced by the Ruffy Dollar. *Nods*
Lame Bums
02-02-2008, 02:12
Mark my words: It will soon be replaced by the Ruffy Dollar. *Nods*

What about the Scuffy Dollar? :fluffle:

But, eh, I don't think it will be dethroned.
Gartref
02-02-2008, 02:15
Not just the Dollar. All monetary systems are on the verge of collapse. That's why I am converting all my assets to beef jerky, peppercorns and cocao beans.
Der Teutoniker
02-02-2008, 02:20
Of course, I oppose using the US dollar as the world's reserve asset, rather, a more appropriate choice would be pudding: Specifically the kind you can buy in a gigantic can at Sam's club.

I once ate a 7 lb can of pudding in like, 3 1/2 days... it was pretty sick.

And yet I want to do it agian....
Der Teutoniker
02-02-2008, 02:20
Not just the Dollar. All monetary systems are on the verge of collapse. That's why I am converting all my assets to beef jerky, peppercorns and cocao beans.

You'll be getting a lot of post-collapse business form me, those are practically staples to my lifestyle.
Der Teutoniker
02-02-2008, 02:25
It's a symbolic of the Uks refusal to ever submit to any kind of avian overlord.

Hmm, appropriate symbolism in today's age. Talk about the UKs founders having immense forethought.

Now, presumably, the UK will also be a major sight of resistance one the Avian overlords start assimilating most of the world? Or will the UK be content to let the Avians have the rest of the world? I admit that my knowledge of UK political ideology regarding Avian Overlordism is sadly lacking.

:D
Kyronea
02-02-2008, 02:40
It's a symbolic of the Uks refusal to ever submit to any kind of avian overlord.

On the other hand, serpentine overlords are freely welcomed and, in fact, desired.
Steely Glintt
02-02-2008, 02:43
Hmm, appropriate symbolism in today's age. Talk about the UKs founders having immense forethought.

Now, presumably, the UK will also be a major sight of resistance one the Avian overlords start assimilating most of the world? Or will the UK be content to let the Avians have the rest of the world? I admit that my knowledge of UK political ideology regarding Avian Overlordism is sadly lacking.

:D

http://www.scifi-universe.com/upload/galeries/images_film/darkcrystal/skeksis.jpg

Seriously, would you mess?

Luckly the UK has thought ahead and put small spikes on the ledges of many public buildings to prepare for the oncoming fight. *nods*
Der Teutoniker
02-02-2008, 02:51
http://www.scifi-universe.com/upload/galeries/images_film/darkcrystal/skeksis.jpg

Seriously, would you mess?

Luckly the UK has thought ahead and put small spikes on the ledges of many public buildings to prepare for the oncoming fight. *nods*

:D That is an amazingly sick picture!

*sigh* If I have to fight alongside the UK, to stop the Avians from their world-domination, I will do it!
The Loyal Opposition
02-02-2008, 03:29
I never noticed this before, but it looks like a bird's head with a spike embedded in it. :p

That "spike" is clearly a VISOR (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/0/04/GeordiLaForge.jpg).

Visually augmented Avian overlords, for the jolly good win!
Soviestan
02-02-2008, 03:30
Yes of course it will decline in status, just as the US itself will.
Indri
02-02-2008, 05:49
Well we know that this:

http://www.visitnumber54.co.uk/images/pound%20sign.gif

Rules all. :p
Exactly. I thought the pound sterling was the most valuable currency even if it isn't the most traded.
New Manvir
02-02-2008, 05:57
let's go back to hard currency...

*starts producing gold doubloons*
Whatwhatia
02-02-2008, 09:56
Long live the dollar. Fuck the Euro.
Cameroi
02-02-2008, 12:15
the dollar is no less mortal then a snake or a tree. (but did they ("neo-cons") really have to go out of their way to bludgeon it to death just to bail out their partners in crime?)

=^^=
.../\...
Vetalia
02-02-2008, 12:37
Yeah. Now, the Imperial Credit, that's something else altogether.

(And if you're wondering why I'm still up...welcome to the wonderful world of TRANSPORTATION, ASSIGNMENT, AND NETWORK MODELS!)
B en H
02-02-2008, 14:15
1. Euro
2. Pudding
3. toasters from the seventies
4. dollar
5. Some other retarded currency