NationStates Jolt Archive


Japanese Population drop

Kontor
15-01-2008, 01:05
I just read recently that the Japanese population is droping dramatically. It is at about 127 million right now, by 2050 it will be at 100 million by 2100 it will be at 60 million. I don't know if this is good or bad, but it sure is alarming, I am just wondering what you folks think about it. ( Forgive my bad grammar, it was never my strong point)
Neu Leonstein
15-01-2008, 01:18
*Too lazy to check numbers*

All that means is that they'll have to get used to more immigration. Wouldn't be the only thing changing in Japan these days.
HSH Prince Eric
15-01-2008, 01:18
Well no one knows if the world will be around in 2050 or 2100, much less what it will look like. This happens in every successful society as the people get educated and decide against having a large number of kids, while the inferior societies continue to breed out of control, ie third world immigration.

I'm far less worried about Japan though. They have not surrendered themselves to immigration like the West has.
Marrakech II
15-01-2008, 01:20
The Racism is strong in this one...
It just means they need to integrate more immigrants into their society, which will be a good thing, as the intermixing cultures ought to produce something truly valuable.


What would be a good race/ethnicity to mix with the Japanese? Maybe some Brazilians to spice up the genetics? Probably get some decent looking people out of that mix?
Kyronea
15-01-2008, 01:20
Well no one knows if the world will be around in 2050 or 2100. This happens in every civilized society while the inferior societies continue to breed out of control, ie third world immigration to the West.

I'm far less worried about Japan though. They have not surrendered themselves to immigration.

The Racism is strong in this one...

Seriously, though, it's not a huge problem. It's not like they'll disappear entirely, after all. It just means they need to integrate more immigrants into their society, which will be a good thing, as the intermixing cultures ought to produce something truly valuable.
Marrakech II
15-01-2008, 01:20
More room for the giant robots. :)

Don't forget Godzilla needs his space.
Lunatic Goofballs
15-01-2008, 01:23
I just read recently that the Japanese population is droping dramatically. It is at about 127 million right now, by 2050 it will be at 100 million by 2100 it will be at 60 million. I don't know if this is good or bad, but it sure is alarming, I am just wondering what you folks think about it. ( Forgive my bad grammar, it was never my strong point)

More room for the giant robots. :)
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 01:25
Well no one knows if the world will be around in 2050 or 2100, much less what it will look like. This happens in every successful society as the people get educated and decide against having a large number of kids, while the inferior societies continue to breed out of control, ie third world immigration.

I'm far less worried about Japan though. They have not surrendered themselves to immigration like the West has.

Thats what best about Japan, unlike the white people in europe they care about their culture and people. Anyway less people for them is good as they are too over populated.
HSH Prince Eric
15-01-2008, 01:25
It was true of the Irish, Italians and most of the other catholic countries a hundred years ago. Then they became more civilized and stopping having 10 kids. Eastern Europe was the same. They are now on the decline.

Is is racism to point that out?
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 01:26
*Too lazy to check numbers*

All that means is that they'll have to get used to more immigration. Wouldn't be the only thing changing in Japan these days.

Whatelse whould be changing?
Kyronea
15-01-2008, 01:28
It was true of the Irish, Italians and most of the other catholic countries a hundred years ago. Then they became more civilized and stopping having 10 kids. Eastern Europe was the same. They are now on the decline.

Is is racism to point that out?

I was referring more to your setence about not surrendering to immigration, but your blabbing about inferior societies is part of it.

You might want to pay attention to historical reasons for the large amount of children. Historically the infant death rate was much higher, and of course families needed more people to do all the hard work of survival. Nowadays we don't need that, but they used to, and such habits can be hard to break.

Really, it had nothing to do with becoming "civilized" and everything to do with advancing technology.
Call to power
15-01-2008, 01:32
considering Japan in on a major fault line this may be a good thing...

also they are clearly all in London why do you think we bother with a Queen
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 01:36
The Racism is strong in this one...

Seriously, though, it's not a huge problem. It's not like they'll disappear entirely, after all. It just means they need to integrate more immigrants into their society, which will be a good thing, as the intermixing cultures ought to produce something truly valuable.

So japanese culture isn't truly valuable on it's own merit? That is by far the most racist comment I have seen this month!
Nova Magna Germania
15-01-2008, 01:37
Oh god. The linearity of how the pro immigration people's minds work is funny. In 2050, I'm sure many jobs will be occupied by things like this:

http://internetrecursoeducativo.blogia.com/upload/20070930192023-asimo.jpg

Besides those statistics are true only if current trends continue. I think it is unlikely that such trends will continue for 50 years. They may raise their birthrate and/or life span & quality (hence working years) thru medical advances.
Nova Magna Germania
15-01-2008, 01:40
So japanese culture isn't truly valuable on it's own merit? That is by far the most racist comment I have seen this month!

Agreed. Racist evil Kyronea and Marrakech II.
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 01:41
It's a problem, a very large one and one that the political parties in Japan are currently sticking their heads in the sand about. The current plan is NOT to have immigration (Which the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan is trying very hard to make go away or short term) but to make the elderly, women, and robots fill the spots to keep the economy working.

The fact that it has been pointed out, repeatedly, that this won't work hasn't sunk in yet and politicians over here keep making vague mumblings about women, elderly, and robots.

Immigration will probably happen though, whether the Diet likes it or not, especially as the rate of international marriages is increasing quite a bit.



Japan R.I.P

I am sure a white man such as yourself isn't urging for more immigration and slowly turn Japan into america.
Dinaverg
15-01-2008, 01:41
Aren't Japanese rooms ridiculously tiny anyways? They could do with a good halving.
NERVUN
15-01-2008, 01:42
It's a problem, a very large one and one that the political parties in Japan are currently sticking their heads in the sand about. The current plan is NOT to have immigration (Which the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan is trying very hard to make go away or short term) but to make the elderly, women, and robots fill the spots to keep the economy working.

The fact that it has been pointed out, repeatedly, that this won't work hasn't sunk in yet and politicians over here keep making vague mumblings about women, elderly, and robots.

Immigration will probably happen though, whether the Diet likes it or not, especially as the rate of international marriages is increasing quite a bit.
Nova Magna Germania
15-01-2008, 01:42
The fact that it has been pointed out, repeatedly, that this won't work hasn't sunk in yet and politicians over here keep making vague mumblings about women, elderly, and robots.



Who has pointed it out? Sounds like mothers with fake statistics. "According to latest research, one joint kills 10 billion brain cells."
JuNii
15-01-2008, 01:42
As I said in the other thread about this.

I, as a Japansese-American, will be more than happy to donate my time and effort to help stem this falling population problem.

:p
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 01:43
Agreed. Racist evil Kyronea and Marrakech II.


Yes, all cultures have value and should be protected. Assuming they only have value when they mix with others is racist.
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 01:45
Uh... right...

Have you been to Tokyo as of late?

Have you? Don't make pointless comment with no proof to back it up boy.
NERVUN
15-01-2008, 01:46
Thats what best about Japan, unlike the white people in europe they care about their culture and people.
Uh... right...

Have you been to Tokyo as of late?
HSH Prince Eric
15-01-2008, 01:48
Well a society advancing is of course what I meant. Maybe civilized was the wrong term, but the point is that cultures that progress do not have many people having a massive number of kids. Except those who don't advance, like the ultra-religious and the LCD, like in the ghetto's and barrio's.
Rachkldom
15-01-2008, 01:48
I read about this before.

Well no one knows if the world will be around in 2050 or 2100, much less what it will look like. This happens in every successful society as the people get educated and decide against having a large number of kids, while the inferior societies continue to breed out of control, ie third world immigration.

I'm far less worried about Japan though. They have not surrendered themselves to immigration like the West has.

It was true of the Irish, Italians and most of the other catholic countries a hundred years ago. Then they became more civilized and stopping having 10 kids. Eastern Europe was the same. They are now on the decline.

Is is racism to point that out?

You sound just like a friend of mine Erikland(he was the one who introduced me to ns and that wiki page). I dont think its racism.
Lunatic Goofballs
15-01-2008, 01:52
The reason for the population decrease:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bmuxljOvBdU

:)
NERVUN
15-01-2008, 01:53
I am sure a white man such as yourself isn't urging for more immigration and slowly turn Japan into america.
Considering that the US accounts for a very, very small percentage of immigration into Japan, not to mention that the Japanese are absorbing American culture on their own without having a large immigration community, your comment makes little to no sense.

In any case, has it has been pointed out, the issue becomes how a very large aging population will be able to maintain the world's second largest economy when the population flips from 1 elderly to every 3 workers to 3 elderly to every 1 worker.
NERVUN
15-01-2008, 01:55
Who has pointed it out? Sounds like mothers with fake statistics. "According to latest research, one joint kills 10 billion brain cells."
No, just leading economists, experts in robotics, and so on. You know, people who actually live and work in Japan.
Nova Magna Germania
15-01-2008, 01:55
No, just leading economists, experts in robotics, and so on. You know, people who actually live and work in Japan.

No link?
Daistallia 2104
15-01-2008, 01:56
I just read recently that the Japanese population is droping dramatically. It is at about 127 million right now, by 2050 it will be at 100 million by 2100 it will be at 60 million. I don't know if this is good or bad, but it sure is alarming, I am just wondering what you folks think about it. ( Forgive my bad grammar, it was never my strong point)

Well, as one of the few posters here who actually resides in Japan and knows the place well, I can probably give a few good ideas about what's going on.

As for the projections, they're more or less accurate.

Here's a good start: http://www.stat.go.jp/English/data/handbook/c02cont.htm

As for that being good or bad, this depends. (I'll pick this up again in a minute.)

All that means is that they'll have to get used to more immigration. Wouldn't be the only thing changing in Japan these days.

There are two directions Japan can go. One is to continue on the current path of economic expansion. This would require, as you suggest, to open the doors and allow more immigration. The second direction, an interesting one suggested by an editorial I read a few years back, would involve a serious change in goals away from being an almost exclusively economic animal to a more lesiurely lifestyle, allowing a decline in population to relieve the many social and personal stresses associated from living in a very dense population. (A quick note here: while Japan's overall population density isn't terribly high, the concentration of nearly half the population in four metro areas leaves a large number of people living in 2000+ population density areas.)

What would be a good race to mix with the Japanese? Maybe some Brazilians to spice up the genetics? Probably get some decent looking people out of that mix?

Aside from the fact that Japanese and Brazillian are ethnicities, not races, yeah.

The Racism is strong in this one...

If you ignore the "I'm going to say outrageous things to get attention Emoesque kiddies, they eventually either go away or autocombust in flames. ;)

Seriously, though, it's not a huge problem. It's not like they'll disappear entirely, after all. It just means they need to integrate more immigrants into their society, which will be a good thing, as the intermixing cultures ought to produce something truly valuable.

Maybe. The other way would work as well. And a third, inbetween way might be just what the doctor ordered. Or it could be horrid.

Don't forget Godzilla needs his space.
More room for the giant robots. :)

Indeed.
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 01:56
Considering that the US accounts for a very, very small percentage of immigration into Japan, not to mention that the Japanese are absorbing American culture on their own without having a large immigration community, your comment makes little to no sense.


Depending Japan has been doing that at various times in its history, asorbing outside culutre and making Japanese it kinda shows my comment makes plenty of sense. Learn japanese history, they have always done that with little to no immigration

In any case, has it has been pointed out, the issue becomes how a very large aging population will be able to maintain the world's second largest economy when the population flips from 1 elderly to every 3 workers to 3 elderly to every 1 worker.


I don't take peoples word for it. And the average age of japanese it 43.5 years, only about 4 years older than the UK. Going overboard are we?

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ja.html#People

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/uk.html#People
Neu Leonstein
15-01-2008, 01:57
Whatelse whould be changing?
Their entire economy, and with it their entire family life.

Recently there was a hostile takeover in Japan (http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=10331522) - that sort of thing makes big news. Then there's the death of the salaryman (http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10424391) and the emergence of an ever stronger and more confident Japanese woman. And the government isn't necessarily sitting still (http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10431721) either.

It's the collapse of the nineties and now globalisation. The Japan everyone knew is fast becoming a relic of the past, and is being replaced by a more modern, more flexible and more fair place to work and live.

Yes, all cultures have value and should be protected. Assuming they only have value when they mix with others is racist.
If people want to protect their culture, they can do that themselves and at home. You can't protect culture by law, that's just stupid.

And none of that has anything to do with ethnicity.
NERVUN
15-01-2008, 01:59
Have you? Don't make pointless comment with no proof to back it up boy.
Have I been to Tokyo? No I just live in Japan and have for the past few years. :rolleyes: How about you back up your inane assertion that Japan cares for its culture as I have loads of news stories about such and such cultural aspect dying out in Japan due to the young not caring for it any more.

Tokyo, for your information, looks like any other large city on the planet. The youth of Japan dress in western clothes, they eat western food (And are getting western style obesity), listen to western music, and don't seem to care about the glories of Japanese culture too much any more.

If you want to pick a fight with me, don't do it about Japan unless you want to get steamed rolled.
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 01:59
Have I been to Tokyo? No I just live in Japan and have for the past few years. :rolleyes: How about you back up your inane assertion that Japan cares for its culture as I have loads of news stories about such and such cultural aspect dying out in Japan due to the young not caring for it any more.

Japan has always asborbed outside culture and made it japanese. Don't deny this. And cultures change and grow over years.

Tokyo, for your information, looks like any other large city on the planet. The youth of Japan dress in western clothes, they eat western food (And are getting western style obesity), listen to western music, and don't seem to care about the glories of Japanese culture too much any more.


While it remains 98% Japanese. Also sound like any other point in it's history.

If you want to pick a fight with me, don't do it about Japan unless you want to get steamed rolled.



Get over yourself white boy.
Kyronea
15-01-2008, 02:02
So japanese culture isn't truly valuable on it's own merit? That is by far the most racist comment I have seen this month!

I apologize for the implication. It wasn't what I meant.

It is valuable on its own, yes. But what I was pointing out is that the value is not lost by intermingling with other cultures. Indeed, Japanese culture has many negative attributes--such as looking down on the weak/disabled, some harsh sexism, approval of rape, ect ect--that should be taken out, just as it has quite a number of attributes that should be preserved, and will be preserved through the intermingling just as it would be if it was left alone.
Neu Leonstein
15-01-2008, 02:03
While it remains 98% Japanese. Also sound like any other point in it's history.
Ethnicity =/= Culture.

Get over yourself white boy.
Now that is sounding like racism.
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 02:03
Their entire economy, and with it their entire family life.

Recently there was a hostile takeover in Japan (http://www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=10331522) - that sort of thing makes big news. Then there's the death of the salaryman (http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10424391) and the emergence of an ever stronger and more confident Japanese woman. And the government isn't necessarily sitting still (http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10431721) either.

It's the collapse of the nineties and now globalisation. The Japan everyone knew is fast becoming a relic of the past, and is being replaced by a more modern, more flexible and more fair place to work and live.


So? Economies change all the time. Whats the big deal? Sounds like they are making needed changes to avoid collapse.
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 02:05
Now that is sounding like racism.



Depending that I am 60% White myself it wouldn't make much sense to be racist against whites..because that would mean I would be racist against myself.
NERVUN
15-01-2008, 02:07
Depending Japan has been doing that at various times in its history, asorbing outside culutre and making Japanese it kinda shows my comment makes plenty of sense. Learn japanese history, they have always done that with little to no immigration
Ah, no, it still doesn't make any sense as again the whole point of the problem is lack of labor.

I don't take peoples word for it. And the average age of japanese it 43.5 years, only about 4 years older than the UK. Going overboard are we?

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ja.html#People

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/uk.html#People
Nope: http://search.japantimes.co.jp/mail/nn20070609a2.html
In addition, each elderly person will be supported by only 1.3 working people in 2055, compared with 3.3 people in 2005.
Dinaverg
15-01-2008, 02:07
Depending that I am 60% White myself it wouldn't make much sense to be racist against whites..because that would mean I would be racist against myself.

So, an arm, the legs, and some of the lower torso?
Daistallia 2104
15-01-2008, 02:07
As I said in the other thread about this.

I, as a Japansese-American, will be more than happy to donate my time and effort to help stem this falling population problem.

:p

Have you? Don't make pointless comment with no proof to back it up boy.

LOL!!!!!!

As someone who's resided in Japan for nearly 17 years (it'll be 17 in March), you haven't the foggiest.

Have I been to Tokyo? No I just live in Japan and have for the past few years. :rolleyes: How about you back up your inane assertion that Japan cares for its culture as I have loads of news stories about such and such cultural aspect dying out in Japan due to the young not caring for it any more.

Tokyo, for your information, looks like any other large city on the planet. The youth of Japan dress in western clothes, they eat western food (And are getting western style obesity), listen to western music, and don't seem to care about the glories of Japanese culture too much any more.

I have been to Tokyo several times, and have lived in the second largest city for 14 years. This is spot on information, and it's not just Tokyo. Pretty much the only people who really believe in the great glorious old culture are the facists uyoko.

If you want to pick a fight with me, don't do it about Japan unless you want to get steamed rolled.

I'm right behind you...
:::reves up the steam roller:::
Daistallia 2104
15-01-2008, 02:10
Ethnicity =/= Culture.

Actually, culture is the primary component of ethnicity.
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 02:10
LOL!!!!!!

As someone who's resided in Japan for nearly 17 years (it'll be 17 in March), you haven't the foggiest.



I have been to Tokyo several times, and have lived in the second largest city for 14 years. This is spot on information, and it's not just Tokyo. Pretty much the only people who really believe in the great glorious old culture are the facists uyoko.



I'm right behind you...
:::reves up the steam roller:::


:rolleyes:

English must not be a strong point of yours, either that or you don't read and just attack. Do you even know what I said? Obviously not.
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 02:11
Actually, culture is the primary component of ethnicity.


You have no idea what you are talking about.
Dinaverg
15-01-2008, 02:11
:rolleyes:

English must not be a strong point of yours, either that or you don't read and just attack. Do you even know what I said? Obviously not.

Let's see, you asked him if he'd ever been to Tokyo, then he answered you.

Something like that?
NERVUN
15-01-2008, 02:12
Japan has always asborbed outside culture and made it japanese. Don't deny this. And cultures change and grow over years.
That's a far cry from your "Thats what best about Japan, unlike the white people in europe they care about their culture and people." statement. Because, guess what, they ain't!

While it remains 98% Japanese. Also sound like any other point in it's history.
Which means what exactly? The point is that the Japanese are absorbing western culture.

Get over yourself white boy.
Wow... what a comeback, I am SO overwhelmed I don't know that I'll be able to keep going. /sarcasm
Dinaverg
15-01-2008, 02:12
You have no idea what you are talking about..

Don't make pointless comment with no proof to back it up boy.
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 02:14
Ah, no, it still doesn't make any sense as again the whole point of the problem is lack of labor.


Do you even know what you are talking about anymore? Get on the same page with me ok?


Nope: http://search.japantimes.co.jp/mail/nn20070609a2.html


You fail. The links I posted where of current median age, the link you post was esitmates for 2055. Am I getting steamrolled yet?:D
Neu Leonstein
15-01-2008, 02:15
So? Economies change all the time. Whats the big deal? Sounds like they are making needed changes to avoid collapse.
Hey, you asked me what else was changing. And the article about the salarymen also covers some of the implications for life at home. And if that isn't changing culture, I don't know what is.

And besides, these changes are much more drastic than anything that happens "all the time".

Fact of the matter is that you have an idealised image of Japan in your head that seems to bear little resemblance to reality. There's a bunch of old people who are questioning the old ways even as they complain about them dying out. There's a bunch of young people who have the same goals and aspirations as the kids in the west, not as their parents or grandparents did. There are many parts of that society which have been broken by the depression and what's left is very, very wrong. I watched a documentary (http://www.thegreathappinessspace.com/) a few weeks ago about "host clubs"...let's just say it left me feeling a little bit disturbed.

A bit of fresh air wouldn't go amiss, I think.
Dinaverg
15-01-2008, 02:16
You fail. The links I posted where of current median age, the link you post was esitmates for 2055. Am I getting steamrolled yet?:D

This entire thread is about estimates, you realize...?
JuNii
15-01-2008, 02:16
I'm right behind you...
:::reves up the steam roller::::eek:
errr... Daistallia... being behind NERVUN with an operating Steam Roller might not be a good thing... those things are rather hard to stop on a moment's notice. :(

perhaps next to him with a steam roller... ;)

Just a suggestion... :p
Neu Leonstein
15-01-2008, 02:16
Actually, culture is the primary component of ethnicity.
You know what I mean though.
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 02:17
That's a far cry from your "Thats what best about Japan, unlike the white people in europe they care about their culture and people." statement. Because, guess what, they ain't!


Mr. Clueless we have here. Japan has always absorbed outside culture.


Which means what exactly? The point is that the Japanese are absorbing western culture.


Like they have in the past. How is this different from the other times they have done the same thing?



Still waiting to be steamrolled.
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 02:17
This entire thread is about estimates, you realize...?

Thread yes, My post no.
Neu Leonstein
15-01-2008, 02:18
You fail. The links I posted where of current median age, the link you post was esitmates for 2055. Am I getting steamrolled yet?:D
Well, this is about the future, so I'm thinking average age would be better than median. Furthermore, if the Japanese live longer than the British, and have fewer kids, then the snapshot comparison between median ages right now doesn't tell us anything about whether or not there is a severe crisis.

Maybe you're getting steamrolled but you just don't notice it.
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 02:19
Hey, you asked me what else was changing. And the article about the salarymen also covers some of the implications for life at home. And if that isn't changing culture, I don't know what is.

And besides, these changes are much more drastic than anything that happens "all the time".

Fact of the matter is that you have an idealised image of Japan in your head that seems to bear little resemblance to reality. There's a bunch of old people who are questioning the old ways even as they complain about them dying out. There's a bunch of young people who have the same goals and aspirations as the kids in the west, not as their parents or grandparents did. There are many parts of that society which have been broken by the depression and what's left is very, very wrong. I watched a documentary (http://www.thegreathappinessspace.com/) a few weeks ago about "host clubs"...let's just say it left me feeling a little bit disturbed.

A bit of fresh air wouldn't go amiss, I think.



:rolleyes:


You are just clueless, just clueless.
The Vuhifellian States
15-01-2008, 02:22
Indeed, Japan's overwhelming number of ethnic Japanese is unprecidented in any other Western nation, they're going to have a shit-load of trouble correcting the problem if they don't review their immigration policy soon.

Also, NERV / that other guy who's in Japan; a question:
How hard is it getting a permanent resident visa for the country?
Dinaverg
15-01-2008, 02:23
Thread yes, My post no.

So you're off-topic? :confused:
Neu Leonstein
15-01-2008, 02:23
You are just clueless, just clueless.
Lol.

Me: Things are changing in Japan.
You: Like what?
Me: *puts up links*
You: So what?
Me: *explains*
You: You're clueless.

Fact of the matter is that if the Japanese culture is already changing, rather than "being preserved" and is already "absorbing" Western culture, then allowing immigrants into the country should make little to no difference to whether or not "Japanese" culture as we know it survives.

So either you put up a good argument to counter that, or you drop the talk about culture and get straight to the race issue.
Dinaverg
15-01-2008, 02:24
Cryptic Nightmare, you are not contributing to the discussion. You are not debating. All you're doing is making up some ridiculous assumptions, accusing everyone who disagrees with you as being racist and clueless, and otherwise refusing to debate.

So are you trolling, or do you really think this is the way to debate?

*shrug* what else is there to say?

Japan: runnin out of peeps, what r we 2 do?
Peeps: Get mo' peeps.
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 02:25
Well, this is about the future, so I'm thinking average age would be better than median. Furthermore, if the Japanese live longer than the British, and have fewer kids, then the snapshot comparison between median ages right now doesn't tell us anything about whether or not there is a severe crisis.

Maybe you're getting steamrolled but you just don't notice it.



Shouldn't you be reading for the end of the world? Do you even know what median age is?
Kyronea
15-01-2008, 02:25
Cryptic Nightmare, you are not contributing to the discussion. You are not debating. All you're doing is making up some ridiculous assumptions, accusing everyone who disagrees with you as being racist and clueless, and otherwise refusing to debate.

So are you trolling, or do you really think this is the way to debate?
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 02:27
Cryptic Nightmare, you are not contributing to the discussion. You are not debating. All you're doing is making up some ridiculous assumptions, accusing everyone who disagrees with you as being racist and clueless, and otherwise refusing to debate.

So are you trolling, or do you really think this is the way to debate?

Seems more like I am slapping them around a bit and they don't like it. No trolling here.
Dinaverg
15-01-2008, 02:29
Are you really that dumb? I think so, Japan has always asorbed outside culture. I think you should go back and read the posts again. You're the one making a huge deal out of this not me. I see no problem here.
.
Japan R.I.P
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 02:30
Lol.

Me: Things are changing in Japan.
You: Like what?
Me: *puts up links*
You: So what?
Me: *explains*
You: You're clueless.

Fact of the matter is that if the Japanese culture is already changing, rather than "being preserved" and is already "absorbing" Western culture, then allowing immigrants into the country should make little to no difference to whether or not "Japanese" culture as we know it survives.

So either you put up a good argument to counter that, or you drop the talk about culture and get straight to the race issue.



Are you really that dumb? I think so, Japan has always asorbed outside culture. I think you should go back and read the posts again. You're the one making a huge deal out of this not me. I see no problem here.
Kyronea
15-01-2008, 02:33
Seems more like I am slapping them around a bit and they don't like it. No trolling here.
Really? That's not what I'm seeing. I'm seeing them make impassioned arguments from either what news and information they have gathered from reputable sources or personal experience, and you're just dismissing it out of hand, just like you dismissed whatever I had to say about Mexico out of hand, just like you dismiss everyone out of hand.

Really, I think you are trolling, and you know it too. Worse, I'll bet you're a puppet. Who's pulling the strings, Nightmare?
NERVUN
15-01-2008, 02:35
No link?
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/fl20070116zg.html
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20070101a3.html

To start off with. Sadly a lot of the news is, for obvious reasons, in Japanese. I can post some NHK links if you like.
SeathorniaII
15-01-2008, 02:35
As for what I have dismissed here, I have given valid reason why I did that. Stop trolling and flambaiting ok?

I'm wondering myself what valid reason this is... I honestly haven't found any arguments from you, only unbacked and unsourced claims.
Dinaverg
15-01-2008, 02:36
As for what I have dismissed here, I have given valid reason why I did that.

...

Umm...
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 02:36
Really? That's not what I'm seeing. I'm seeing them make impassioned arguments from either what news and information they have gathered from reputable sources or personal experience, and you're just dismissing it out of hand, just like you dismissed whatever I had to say about Mexico out of hand, just like you dismiss everyone out of hand.

Really, I think you are trolling, and you know it too. Worse, I'll bet you're a puppet. Who's pulling the strings, Nightmare?


Now thats trolling and flambait. I bet you knew that and are just trying to get a rise outta me.


And as for you and mexico, You provided no proof of anything you said and even admitted you should have so don't bring that up.

As for what I have dismissed here, I have given valid reason why I did that. Stop trolling and flambaiting ok?
Neu Leonstein
15-01-2008, 02:37
Shouldn't you be reading for the end of the world? Do you even know what median age is?
I do, and I think that the traditional way of expressing data (meaning a combination including something covering the spread and an average) would be a lot better to point out any gluts in age groups.

Speaking of which...
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbpyr.pl?cty=JA&yr=2000&maxp=5576744&maxa=100&ymax=250&color=1
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbpyr.pl?cty=JA&yr=2025&maxp=5576744&maxa=100&ymax=250&color=1
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbpyr.pl?cty=JA&yr=2050&maxp=5576744&maxa=100&ymax=250&color=1

http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbpyr.pl?cty=UK&yr=2000&maxp=2478822&maxa=100&ymax=250&color=1
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbpyr.pl?cty=UK&yr=2025&maxp=2478822&maxa=100&ymax=250&color=1
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbpyr.pl?cty=UK&yr=2050&maxp=2478822&maxa=100&ymax=250&color=1
Nova Magna Germania
15-01-2008, 02:37
Noone responded to this breath taking analysis. :mp5:

Oh god. The linearity of how the pro immigration people's minds work is funny. In 2050, I'm sure many jobs will be occupied by things like this:

http://internetrecursoeducativo.blogia.com/upload/20070930192023-asimo.jpg

Besides those statistics are true only if current trends continue. I think it is unlikely that such trends will continue for 50 years. They may raise their birthrate and/or life span & quality (hence working years) thru medical advances.
SeathorniaII
15-01-2008, 02:38
Noone responded to this breath taking analysis. :mp5:

First time the picture didn't load.

Second time it came up as 403 - forbidden.
Daistallia 2104
15-01-2008, 02:39
:eek:
errr... Daistallia... being behind NERVUN with an operating Steam Roller might not be a good thing... those things are rather hard to stop on a moment's notice. :(

perhaps next to him with a steam roller... ;)

Just a suggestion... :p

Well, I assumed he'd have his own steam roller for me to follow.

Anywho, as for this thread, we say a saying back home where I grew up about what one does when one agues with a fool....
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 02:39
.




Somebody taking my comment the wrong way I see? I was making point to its falling population and at the current rate the whole country would kill itself due to it. Nothing more. Get what I meant? If it keeps falling at this rate it will vanish? Its a joke dude.
Kyronea
15-01-2008, 02:40
Now thats trolling and flambait. I bet you knew that and are just trying to get a rise outta me.


And as for you and mexico, You provided no proof of anything you said and even admitted you should have so don't bring that up.

As for what I have dismissed here, I have given valid reason why I did that. Stop trolling and flambaiting ok?

Then stop just dismissing what people are saying and try responding appropriately. As you did with me, all you're saying is "No, you're wrong!" and unlike the situation with me, they've been providing evidence. You want to argue on this level, you need to back up what you're saying or admit that you're wrong. Put up or shut up.
NERVUN
15-01-2008, 02:41
Also, NERV / that other guy who's in Japan; a question:
How hard is it getting a permanent resident visa for the country?
Pretty hard. If you have a Japanese parent or spouse the wait time is 5 years, for those who are here on a working permit, it's 10 years and minimum, but I've known people who have been waiting a lot longer than that to get it.
SeathorniaII
15-01-2008, 02:42
Ummm. are you in the same thread as me? Jeez.

I would strongly suggest reading what you've written and then finding the places where you've backed anything up. That way, this thread might actually progress to something more meaningful.
Neu Leonstein
15-01-2008, 02:42
Are you really that dumb? I think so, Japan has always asorbed outside culture. I think you should go back and read the posts again.
So what's the problem with not just absorbing outside culture, but also absorbing the primary medium for it, which is outside people?

Why is it that Japanese people watching US TV, using English words, wearing Western clothes and going to McDonald's is not a problem, but an American person who does exactly the same thing living in Japan somehow is?

You're the one making a huge deal out of this not me. I see no problem here.
Actually, all I said was that the answer to the problem of a rapidly ageing and shrinking population is clear: get people from the outside.

I don't consider that a big deal whatsoever, but you did.
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 02:43
Then stop just dismissing what people are saying and try responding appropriately. As you did with me, all you're saying is "No, you're wrong!" and unlike the situation with me, they've been providing evidence. You want to argue on this level, you need to back up what you're saying or admit that you're wrong. Put up or shut up.



Ummm. are you in the same thread as me? Jeez.
Dinaverg
15-01-2008, 02:44
all you're saying is "No, you're wrong!"Ummm. are you in the same thread as me? Jeez.

Ooh, this one looks fun.

Have you? Don't make pointless comment with no proof to back it up boy.my comment makes plenty of sense. Learn japanese historyI don't take peoples word for it...Going overboard are we?
Japan has always asborbed outside culture and made it japanese. Don't deny this.Get over yourself white boy.English must not be a strong point of yours, either that or you don't read and just attack. Do you even know what I said? Obviously not.You have no idea what you are talking about.Do you even know what you are talking about anymore? Get on the same page with me ok?You failMr. Clueless we have here.You are just clueless, just clueless.
NERVUN
15-01-2008, 02:45
Well, I assumed he'd have his own steam roller for me to follow.
I thought I was giving you a lift. ;)

Anywho, as for this thread, we say a saying back home where I grew up about what one does when one agues with a fool....
Indeed, given that CN refuses to actually, you know, back up anything he's been saying...
Lunatic Goofballs
15-01-2008, 02:45
Ummm. are you in the same thread as me? Jeez.

I'm sure he is beginning to wish he wasn't. :p
Nova Magna Germania
15-01-2008, 02:46
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/fl20070116zg.html
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20070101a3.html

To start off with. Sadly a lot of the news is, for obvious reasons, in Japanese. I can post some NHK links if you like.

I'm sorry I dont have the time to read all of the articles at this point but it seems some business leaders indeed suggested increased immigration. However, I searched "robo" in the articles and found no match. You had claimed that experts in robotics argued for increased immigration as well.

An interesting look into automated future:

http://marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 02:47
Well, I assumed he'd have his own steam roller for me to follow.

Anywho, as for this thread, we say a saying back home where I grew up about what one does when one agues with a fool....



I feel that way about you, Mr. Say I don't have the foggiest but provide no evidence or even mention what I don't have the foggiest about. I have a feeling you have no idea what this about. Since you have no idea what Is going on here maybe you should just stop posting until you figure out what Is.
Dinaverg
15-01-2008, 02:47
Wait, more.

Shouldn't you be reading for the end of the world? Do you even know what median age is?Seems more like I am slapping them around a bit and they don't like it.Are you really that dumb? I think soAs for what I have dismissed here, I have given valid reason why I did thatUmmm. are you in the same thread as me?
SeathorniaII
15-01-2008, 02:47
Race.

Ummmmm. No I didn't.

So why is it a problem for a person of another ethnicity to do in Tokyo what the Japanese do in Tokyo?
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 02:47
I'm sure he is beginning to wish he wasn't. :p


If he doesn't like the whipping avoid the whip.
Dinaverg
15-01-2008, 02:48
Nice cherry picking you did there. Very nice, some werent even my whole comment.

And some were.
SeathorniaII
15-01-2008, 02:48
I have backed up everything.

I challenge you to find one thing that you have backed up.
Neu Leonstein
15-01-2008, 02:49
Race.
There we go, that's all I wanted to hear. Once again, the idea of "protecting culture" was a facade for talking about race.

I'll leave you to your own devices now. I'd just like to ask everyone else to not complain in Moderation though, because this is precisely the sort of thing we should be able to handle ourselves without running to mommy. Pretty please?
Dinaverg
15-01-2008, 02:49
I have backed up everything.

...

>>
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 02:49
So what's the problem with not just absorbing outside culture, but also absorbing the primary medium for it, which is outside people?

Why is it that Japanese people watching US TV, using English words, wearing Western clothes and going to McDonald's is not a problem, but an American person who does exactly the same thing living in Japan somehow is?

Race.


Actually, all I said was that the answer to the problem of a rapidly ageing and shrinking population is clear: get people from the outside.

I don't consider that a big deal whatsoever, but you did.


Ummmmm. No I didn't.
SeathorniaII
15-01-2008, 02:49
The time warp in this thread is horrendous.
Nova Magna Germania
15-01-2008, 02:49
First time the picture didn't load.

Second time it came up as 403 - forbidden.

How about this one:

http://albums.mouseplanet.com/MPPromotional/MickeyAsimo01.jpg
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 02:50
Indeed, given that CN refuses to actually, you know, back up anything he's been saying...


I have backed up everything.
Marrakech II
15-01-2008, 02:50
http://blogs.townonline.com/newton/wp-content/uploads/2007/01/godzilla.jpg
Dinaverg
15-01-2008, 02:50
I challenge you to find one thing that you have backed up.
http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showpost.php?p=13371402&postcount=92
Lunatic Goofballs
15-01-2008, 02:50
If he doesn't like the whipping avoid the whip.

I like you. You're silly. :)
Dinaverg
15-01-2008, 02:50
http://blogs.townonline.com/newton/wp-content/uploads/2007/01/godzilla.jpg

Good point.
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 02:51
Ooh, this one looks fun.

Nice cherry picking you did there. Very nice, some werent even my whole comment.
SeathorniaII
15-01-2008, 02:51
How about this one:

http://albums.mouseplanet.com/MPPromotional/MickeyAsimo01.jpg

It works.

But now I don't have the context you gave it in :(
Dinaverg
15-01-2008, 02:52
And you took those out of context.

It really can't be that far out of context, you posted it not but a few minutes ago. This is one of those "back it up" points we talk about.
SeathorniaII
15-01-2008, 02:52
And you took those out of context.

How can you take a full post out its context?
NERVUN
15-01-2008, 02:53
I have backed up everything.
So where's the backup about Japan caring about its people and culture as opposed to white Europeans?
Dinaverg
15-01-2008, 02:53
Now if only he would, you know, actually debate well...

Pff, this is way more fun.
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 02:53
And some were.

And you took those out of context.
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 02:54
>>

Ok.... What are you saying again?
Cryptic Nightmare
15-01-2008, 02:55
http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showpost.php?p=13371402&postcount=92



:confused:
Kyronea
15-01-2008, 02:55
I like you. You're silly. :)

Now if only he would, you know, actually debate well...
Ardchoille
15-01-2008, 03:39
I locked this thread temporarily so it could cool down.

Cryptic Nightmare, you're forumbanned again for 24 hours for flaming and trolling, including your racist remark to Nervun.

It's only for 24 hours because, until this and the Which Illness thread, your posts were showing signs of attempts, since your earlier ban, to improve your interactions with other posters.

But here, after being mildly provoked -- the "steamroller" comment -- you ran with it until you had turned the thread into a flamefest. Others who responded tried to warn you and tried to use humour to defuse the situation. These should have been signs to you.

People are allowed to disagree with you. They are allowed to ask you for proof. You are allowed to do the same. You and they are not allowed to do so in such a manner that the topic is lost in a welter of did not/did so posts.

Usual reminder, all: don't feed the fires.
JuNii
15-01-2008, 04:19
in an attempt to get this back on Topic...

considering the thread about the man who died while EMS were searching for a hospital to accept him... there were articles about hundreds of women who died/lost their children due to the same reasoning.

while any reported decline would not be solely caused by that, would the repair/improvement of the health care environment in Japan stem the decline or even halt it?
Dinaverg
15-01-2008, 04:22
in an attempt to get this back on Topic...

considering the thread about the man who died while EMS were searching for a hospital to accept him... there were articles about hundreds of women who died/lost their children due to the same reasoning.

while any reported decline would not be solely caused by that, would the repair/improvement of the health care environment in Japan stem the decline or even halt it?

Wouldn't that just make people live longer? Technically the problem is that people are getting old and stop working.
JuNii
15-01-2008, 04:24
Wouldn't that just make people live longer? Technically the problem is that people are getting old and stop working.

I can see that... being that here in the US, the Baby Boomers are retiring now...

however, the problem is also that the next generation is not coming out in the numbers they are supposed to come out in... hence the decline in population. more people leaving than those entering.
Fall of Empire
15-01-2008, 04:30
in an attempt to get this back on Topic...

considering the thread about the man who died while EMS were searching for a hospital to accept him... there were articles about hundreds of women who died/lost their children due to the same reasoning.

while any reported decline would not be solely caused by that, would the repair/improvement of the health care environment in Japan stem the decline or even halt it?

It may help the decline in the short run but not the long run. To do that, they either need to elevate their birth rates or do something with immigration.
NERVUN
15-01-2008, 04:37
in an attempt to get this back on Topic...

considering the thread about the man who died while EMS were searching for a hospital to accept him... there were articles about hundreds of women who died/lost their children due to the same reasoning.

while any reported decline would not be solely caused by that, would the repair/improvement of the health care environment in Japan stem the decline or even halt it?
Not really, Japan's health system isn't all that bad and ranks second in the world in terms of preventable deaths. The issue stems from the current birthrate is 1.3 per woman, much lower than the 2.4 needed to maintain the population.
Dinaverg
15-01-2008, 04:42
Not really, Japan's health system isn't all that bad and ranks second in the world in terms of preventable deaths. The issue stems from the current birthrate is 1.3 per woman, much lower than the 2.4 needed to maintain the population.

what happened to 2.1? damn, I learned that like, last year, is it out-dated already?
BunnySaurus Bugsii
15-01-2008, 04:55
Falling birth rates are an indisputable fact of modern economies/societies. There are several ways to approach that, and I'll break them into two catagories:


They're inherently bad, and should be opposed. Population growth drives economic growth, decrease reduces it. Or "OMG, we'll all die out."

Government legislation (eg Italy) to make parenthood more attractive.
Immigration. Adds adult population, mainly at the lowest employment rung.
Rape a Catholic nun.

Falling birth rates are good. The world is too crowded already.

Government legislation to reduce population growth. Eg. One Child Policy.
Immigration. No net gain of population, relief of overcrowding in troubled areas.
Industrialization and universal education around the world. The West is doing the right thing, and everyone else should be allowed and helped to do likewise.
The opposite: promote strife and disease in overcrowded areas. The excess population kill each other or die young from natural causes we could prevent.


(I'm happy to edit in other options which might be suggested)

I tend towards thinking that falling birth rates are good, which may be why I can think of more options for that. And I favour the third option of the second broad approach (2:3) because overpopulation in Asia or Africa really does affect us all. We live in a world of entrenched inequality, and it's harder to fix that, the more poor there are and the further they are divided from the rich by national borders.

Population decrease is bad for the economy, perhaps. Bad for the nation which has seriously falling population, perhaps.

But good for our future, good for our planet, and good for each living human to be among the few billion (not ten, twenty or a hundred) which our planet can carry while allowing some space for other living things.
Fall of Empire
15-01-2008, 05:00
what happened to 2.1? damn, I learned that like, last year, is it out-dated already?

Haven't you heard? Due to laxing union standards, 2.4 children are now required to keep the population stable, since an average of .3 children are lost in transportation (usually an arm or a kidney). The lesson we can all learn from Japan is: fuck unions.
NERVUN
15-01-2008, 05:01
what happened to 2.1? damn, I learned that like, last year, is it out-dated already?
Mistype, sorry. That was supposed to be 2.1. That's what happens when you try to type and eat lunch at the same time. :p
Daistallia 2104
15-01-2008, 05:02
in an attempt to get this back on Topic...

considering the thread about the man who died while EMS were searching for a hospital to accept him... there were articles about hundreds of women who died/lost their children due to the same reasoning.

while any reported decline would not be solely caused by that, would the repair/improvement of the health care environment in Japan stem the decline or even halt it?

Actually, in the case of the health care system the problem is probably the reverse - fewer children causing a decline in the number of Ob/Gyns. There are several reasons behind the declining population, but a society that in many ways discourages women from having children (expensive schools, social expectations of married women that lead to later marriages, etc., etc.) is probably the biggest reason.
Marrakech II
15-01-2008, 05:07
There are several reasons behind the declining population, but a society that in many ways discourages women from having children (expensive schools, social expectations of married women that lead to later marriages, etc., etc.) is probably the biggest reason.


I think reason would dictate that a society in peril will realize it and try and reverse the slide. Question is will the Japanese realize and try and remedy the situation.
BunnySaurus Bugsii
15-01-2008, 05:11
Oh god. The linearity of how the pro immigration people's minds work is funny.

Gee, bad luck for you how Cryptic Nightmare stole the show. 10 posts in, you have decided this is an immigration thread, and you're drawing the battle-lines ... then that Punch-n-Judy show takes the limelight.

There ain't no justice, huh, on NSG ?

In 2050, I'm sure many jobs will be occupied by things like this:

http://albums.mouseplanet.com/MPPromotional/MickeyAsimo01.jpg
[/QUOTE]

I quote you with the link updated. That's actually pretty damn funny!

(To anyone who doesn't get it, the human employee is the one in the mouse-suit.)
Daistallia 2104
15-01-2008, 05:32
I think reason would dictate that a society in peril will realize it and try and reverse the slide. Question is will the Japanese realize and try and remedy the situation.

This is the billion yen question. Going by history, (and to give an abbreviated verson of what would be a tl;dr lecture on Japanese history and culture) only if something of a short, sharp shock occurs.
Kontor
15-01-2008, 05:36
Get over yourself white boy.

I take offense to that racist.
BunnySaurus Bugsii
15-01-2008, 05:39
I take offense to that racist.

Done already:

I locked this thread temporarily so it could cool down.

Cryptic Nightmare, you're forumbanned again for 24 hours for flaming and trolling, including your racist remark to Nervun.

It's only for 24 hours because, until this and the Which Illness thread, your posts were showing signs of attempts, since your earlier ban, to improve your interactions with other posters.

So let's hope CN comes back having learnt the lesson, and not lay down a bunch of challenges to do the same again ... hmm?
Kontor
15-01-2008, 05:48
Done already:



Yea, it took me a long time to read all 9 pages of this. I posted this, no one responded, I come back in 3 hrs, it's PACKED with comments. I notice it's about 6 pages of Cryptic and others flaming then people get back on topic.
AHSCA
15-01-2008, 05:49
More room for the giant robots. :)

Yes but now they won't be able to rebuild as fast after the robots engage in Mortal Kombat
BunnySaurus Bugsii
15-01-2008, 05:55
I think reason would dictate that a society in peril will realize it and try and reverse the slide. Question is will the Japanese realize and try and remedy the situation.

Japan is "in peril"? Of what, an aging population? Complete depopulation?

You know they have a population of 120 million people, right? In an area comparable to Germany, which has a population of 80 million?

The Japanese population is two-and-a-half times more dense than that of the US. And 130 times more dense than my little toy country.

Source (Wikipedia) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_density)
United human countries
15-01-2008, 06:04
Japan is "in peril"? Of what, an aging population? Complete depopulation?

You know they have a population of 120 million people, right? In an area comparable to Germany, which has a population of 80 million?

The Japanese population is two-and-a-half times more dense than that of the US. And 130 times more dense than my little toy country.

Source (Wikipedia) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_density)


Not to knock you, but wikipedia isn't really a valid source for NSG. As for population density, I'm not going to go into extreme detail, quite frankly, I skipped most of the discussion to see what happened to the falming troll, but, any decline in population is usually really bad. (Off topic) Unless its in India, then its not so bad. (On topic) As for way back when on the discussion of Japanese culture, from what I've seen. (Never left the comfy shores of the USA) Japan is pretty absorbing modern Western culture and getting rid of its old culture.
Vetalia
15-01-2008, 06:14
Yeah, but Japan also has a lot of technological research dedicated to addressing this problem. They've been dealing with labor shortages and low birthrates far longer than many other countries.

E.g. the robotic exoskeleton that triples the work productivity of a single agricultural worker in labor-intensive farm production. Japan will hardly be in any kind of demographic crisis at any time in the future; I also highly doubt they will suffer that kind of depopulation, especially when we're looking at years like 2050 or 2100.

I mean, people didn't believe we'd have nearly 7 billion people in 100 years... back in the year 1907, it was seen as simply impossible. Attempting to analyze demographic trends on this scale is simply folly at best...you're not going to be able to draw meaningful conclusions when there are so many potential variables in the mix.
NERVUN
15-01-2008, 06:23
Japan is "in peril"? Of what, an aging population? Complete depopulation?

You know they have a population of 120 million people, right? In an area comparable to Germany, which has a population of 80 million?

The Japanese population is two-and-a-half times more dense than that of the US. And 130 times more dense than my little toy country.

Source (Wikipedia) (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_density)
As long as Japan doesn't mind losing the world's second largest economy and putting up with issues related to care of the elderly, pension, and health costs as the amount of workers to elderly shrinks.
NERVUN
15-01-2008, 06:25
Actually, in the case of the health care system the problem is probably the reverse - fewer children causing a decline in the number of Ob/Gyns. There are several reasons behind the declining population, but a society that in many ways discourages women from having children (expensive schools, social expectations of married women that lead to later marriages, etc., etc.) is probably the biggest reason.
My personal fav was the directives that came out of the Labor ministry to reduce overtime in the hopes that salarymen would stop working such long hours, go home, and start helping with household chores to get women more interested in marriage and children.
Tech-gnosis
15-01-2008, 06:30
My personal fav was the directives that came out of the Labor ministry to reduce overtime in the hopes that salarymen would stop working such long hours, go home, and start helping with household chores to get women more interested in marriage and children.

One would think a universal family allowance and child care subsidies would be more effective.
Daistallia 2104
15-01-2008, 06:43
One would think a universal family allowance and child care subsidies would be more effective.

To the extent these exist, they are a drop in the bucket. More importantly, they don't at all address social and cultural factors like women being expected to quit working upon marriage.

Vetalia: most of the tech you're talking about is either in the early prototype stages or vapor-tech.
Daistallia 2104
15-01-2008, 06:44
My personal fav was the directives that came out of the Labor ministry to reduce overtime in the hopes that salarymen would stop working such long hours, go home, and start helping with household chores to get women more interested in marriage and children.

That was a fun one, wasn't it. If all else fails, the Japanese government is usually good for a laugh.
The Scandinvans
15-01-2008, 06:55
The Racism is strong in this one...

Seriously, though, it's not a huge problem. It's not like they'll disappear entirely, after all. It just means they need to integrate more immigrants into their society, which will be a good thing, as the intermixing cultures ought to produce something truly valuable.They will use the good old Klingon saying," We have the right to preserve our race."

*Nods while doing Spock finger thing.*
BunnySaurus Bugsii
15-01-2008, 07:14
I'm flattered by the multiple responses, but I'm sorry, I'll only pick one.

I'll take the first to reply.

Not to knock you, but wikipedia isn't really a valid source for NSG.

It's the source I used, so I cited it. I didn't mean it in the sense "here, this proves my point."

If you have any dispute with the census figures of the various countries (eg, Japan and Germany, which I compared, or Japan and the US, which I compared, or Japan or Australia, which I compared) then say so. Those are what the Wikipedia list is based on. Oh, and the atlas.

As for population density, I'm not going to go into extreme detail, quite frankly, I skipped most of the discussion to see what happened to the falming troll, but, any decline in population is usually really bad. (Off topic) Unless its in India, then its not so bad. (On topic)

Or China. Or Lebanon. Or Bangladesh. Or Japan.

My point about population density has to do with sustainability. Improved fertilizers and improved crops have blunted this common-sense fact: we all need to eat. When a thriving economy and a strong trade position allow a country's citizens to multiply beyond what the physical country can feed, we say "good on them, hitting above their weight, yay they must have a great work-ethic, or they're smart or well-organized" and we might even try to emulate them.

In the case of Japan, it's damn hard to say. Traditionally, they have eaten a lot of fish (being a nation strung out on an island chain, they have more coastline per hectare of dry land than Britain or Canada) but with the declining fertility of all oceans (and the interconnectedness of same) it's pretty plain that Japan cannot feed its population without trade.

Nor can Britain.

I think it is quite right for countries which overpopulated during periods of colonial riches to now depopulate. Just as it is correct for them to make sacrifices (economic sacrifices) to make up for their historical head-start on carbon emissions.

If we regard industrialization and democritization as our gifts to the world, when those were done from frank self-interest, and we're so pleased with the outcome, we now have two choices:


We have control still, so we get to decide what comes next.
We've done all we want to do. Now it's your turn.


I.e. the western world ("Western", though it includes Japan, Singapore and Australia) can continue to make the rules for years to come, and it's up to us whether we go back to the industrial revolution, do it again with robots and smart weapons ... or whether we try to live by what we've learnt since, however idealistic and impractical that may seem in the face of the ruthless capitalists of the developing world.
BunnySaurus Bugsii
15-01-2008, 07:23
They will use the good old Klingon saying," We have the right to preserve our race."

*Nods while doing Spock finger thing.*

Star Trek didn't know the difference between "race" and "species."

Despite crap that happened later in the series, Klingons are a species. Like Time Lords and Daleks.
Eureka Australis
15-01-2008, 08:11
I just read recently that the Japanese population is droping dramatically. It is at about 127 million right now, by 2050 it will be at 100 million by 2100 it will be at 60 million. I don't know if this is good or bad, but it sure is alarming, I am just wondering what you folks think about it. ( Forgive my bad grammar, it was never my strong point)

How about you give up your 19th century 'populate or perish' logic for once, overpopulation is half the reason the reason our world is in the crap, it's not we are in danger of dying off, we can easily make up any losses if need be in a small amount of time.
Tech-gnosis
15-01-2008, 08:20
To the extent these exist, they are a drop in the bucket. More importantly, they don't at all address social and cultural factors like women being expected to quit working upon marriage.

They would however reduce the cost of children which is important in regards to child-bearing. In regards to the socio-cultural expectations I'm not sure how government policy could affect them. Any suggestions?
Risottia
15-01-2008, 11:03
I just read recently that the Japanese population is droping dramatically. It is at about 127 million right now, by 2050 it will be at 100 million by 2100 it will be at 60 million. I don't know if this is good or bad, but it sure is alarming, I am just wondering what you folks think about it. ( Forgive my bad grammar, it was never my strong point)

Well, it's ok! If all the countries scaled down their population by simply having less childs (like Italy and Japan are doing) we would solve a lot of problems about available space for living and for crops, and also about natural resources and energy consumption.
Vetalia
15-01-2008, 11:36
Vetalia: most of the tech you're talking about is either in the early prototype stages or vapor-tech.

Yup, which is why we need to look at other ways of dealing with it between now and when these technologies become viable. I mean, there are 22 years between now and 2030 (a neat, reasonable estimate for the "tipping point" in the war against age-related problems, based upon reasonable development trends)...

...that's 22 years that could see rising healthcare costs, rising tax burden, fallnig revenues, falling productivity, labor shortages and everything else associated with a society facing a decline in the quality and quantity of its workforce.
Laerod
15-01-2008, 12:02
It was true of the Irish, Italians and most of the other catholic countries a hundred years ago. Then they became more civilized and stopping having 10 kids. Eastern Europe was the same. They are now on the decline.

Is is racism to point that out?Yes it is. Claiming decline without backing it up and linking it to not having as many kids as the "immigrants" is racist.
Eureka Australis
15-01-2008, 12:26
I actually always notice the pseudo-racist undertone in these 'declining population' rhetoric by conservatives. First it's that the 'developed' countries are flat population population growth, and that 'unintegrated' migrants are breeding like rabbits and threatening to overcome the good European population within. These days that rhetoric has also been reinvented to say the extremist Muslim immigrants are flooding into the country etc.
Marrakech II
15-01-2008, 13:27
I actually always notice the pseudo-racist undertone in these 'declining population' rhetoric by conservatives. First it's that the 'developed' countries are flat population population growth, and that 'unintegrated' migrants are breeding like rabbits and threatening to overcome the good European population within. These days that rhetoric has also been reinvented to say the extremist Muslim immigrants are flooding into the country etc.

Don't believe you need to be conservative to be racist. Racism spans the political spectrum. The packaging is different depending on what political affiliation one prescribes to.
SeathorniaII
15-01-2008, 13:32
Don't believe you need to be conservative to be racist. Racism spans the political spectrum. The packaging is different depending on what political affiliation one prescribes to.

I might add that I believe EA has previously stated that nations have the right to exclude people. Not racist persay, as the people he wanted to exclude was a certain mindset, but still bad mojo.