NationStates Jolt Archive

...if he was telling the truth about this?

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/11/29/pakistan.musharraf/index.html

What are the odds that he'll reneg on this promise?

...if he was telling the truth about this?

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapcf/11/29/pakistan.musharraf/index.html

What are the odds that he'll reneg on this promise?

He's not exactly been very good at keeping his promises prior to this, so I wouldn't hold my breath. He has, as far as I can tell, for the past few years been using the threat of terrorism/extremism to create a climate of fear, pass laws destroying people's civil liberties and political freedoms, and generally stamp out all of his opponents and secure his hold on power, all in the excuse of combating terrorism (and thus also maintaining a strong Ally in the US). Interestingly, one of the side effects of these particular policies has actually been a rise in islamic extremism who (according to my pakistani work-mate) had up until then received very little public support.

I also noticed that the General now in charge of the military used to be his Head of Intelligence, which is rarely a good sign.

State of emergency or no state of emergency, I doubt the elections will be completely free and fair.

State of emergency or no state of emergency, I doubt the elections will be completely free and fair.

Sometimes I think military dictators have the idea that fairness is everyone having a fifty-fifty chance of getting shot.

Sometimes I think military dictators have the idea that fairness is everyone having a fifty-fifty chance of getting shot.

Sigged.

I give it one chance in three he'll renege, including the probability that something will happen to give him an excuse (say, a string of suicide bombings) to keep the state of emergency. The chance that he'll suddenly renege with no excuse is pretty low.

The thing is, Musharraf is under heavy pressure from the US to restore democracy. We want Musharraf to remain in power (the one thing he's been consistent in is helping us fight terrorists), but we don't want to be seen supporting a dictator. Hence our push for a power-sharing agreement.

If Musharraf does renege on his promise, the US will probably demand massive international oversight for this election - everything short of having the international observers actually RUNNING the process. I could see Bush or Condy suggesting that he suspend the state of emergency for the election day itself.

I don't entirely trust Musharraf. However, he is on our side. The status quo isn't good, but it's better than a hostile Musharraf.

Why wouldn't he be?

Check the mustache on the guard in the background, its like a black horse-shoe!