NationStates Jolt Archive

Came across an excellent article in two parts by Syed Saleem Shahzad of Asia Times. Lots of good info.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/IK13Df01.html
RISE OF THE NEO-TALIBAN, Part 1
Death by the light of a silvery moon
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

NAWA PASS, Pakistan border with Afghanistan - Sitting with four key Taliban commanders deep in a labyrinth of lush green mountains, I could see the Sarkano district of the Kunar Valley in Afghanistan, which is the provincial hub of the American military and a base for the Afghan National Army and Afghan intelligence.

Scores of guerrilla groups, each comprising a few dozen men, hide on the fringes of the Kunar Valley and launch daily operations into Kunar and Nooristan provinces, and with each passing day they receive new recruits and their attacks grow in intensity.

A year ago, I spent two weeks with the Taliban in Helmand province (including a few days in captivity - see A 'guest' of the Taliban, Asia Times Online, November 30, 2006 ), but since then there has been a sea-change within the Taliban.

Without legends such as the slain Mullah Dadullah and Mullah Akhtar Osmani, and with an extremely ill Jalaluddin Haqqani, a neo-Taliban movement has emerged with a new leadership, new zeal and new dynamics. The revitalized and resupplied Taliban are geared to enter a new phase of war without borders to fight coalition forces in Afghanistan and the Pakistan army.

In a way, all that has gone before in the "war on terror" in the past six years since the Taliban were ousted from Kabul has been a dress rehearsal.

For its part, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) leaders are preparing to take up the fight. According to Asia Times Online contacts familiar with developments, a joint Pakistan-NATO operation was approved at a meeting of Pakistan's corps commanders at the weekend. Significantly, they agreed that the boundaries would not necessarily be drawn between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Whether a conventional force such as NATO can contain the Taliban is another matter. Obviously, the Taliban are confident. I asked Shaheen Abid, the Taliban's head of guerrilla operations in the strategic Sarkano district, what was behind the group's revitalization.

Shaheen smiled in response and turned his gaze to three of his subordinate commanders - Zahid of the Nole region, Mohsin of the Shonk Karey district and Muslim Yar of the Barogai region.

"I only know how to fight. Answering complicated questions is beyond my ambit," Shaheen said apologetically, and immediately signaled for the Taliban's media relations officer of the Kunar Valley, Dr Jarrah (a jihadi name), to respond.

Jarrah began, "Before answering you, I will ask you a question. Who is qualified to claim that he has actually seen world?" Before I could reply to this rather strange question, Jarrah answered himself, "The one who has experienced true love, the one who has lived in an alien atmosphere and place, and the one who has spent time in captivity.

"The mujahideen have experienced all three things in the past seven years. We have been reared on a true love for our global struggle, we were forcibly displaced from one place to another and we spent lots of time in the detention centers of Cuba [Guantanamo], in Pakistan, Bagram [Afghanistan] and Abu Ghraib [Iraq] and braved the brutalities of the CIA [US Central Intelligence Agency], the ISI [Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence] and Afghan intelligence," Jarrah said.

"We actually see the world now. We are seasoned and therefore you will see actual fireworks against the one which claims to be the global superpower."

Shaheen then excused himself and joined his subordinates Zahid, Mohsin and Muslim Yar, all in their early 20s. "Please don't mind them, they are discussing their previous operations and planning fresh ones," Jarrah told me.

"We carried out attacks on a daily basis until last Thursday [November 8]. We assign a particular group for a particular assignment. There are different sorts of attacks. We do send attackers called fedayeen in which fighters loaded with rockets and hand grenades and AK-47 guns attack an American base or the Afghan National Army or the intelligence headquarters in Sarkano.

"In such fedayeen attacks, there is zero chance of survival [for the attackers].

"Then we carry out specific attacks based on precise information provided by pro-Taliban elements within the Afghan establishment or by local people. And then the third and the most expensive attacks are those in which we fire missiles on an enemy position from a distance. It costs us 250,000 Pakistani rupees [about US$4,000] per operation.

"We launch all three kinds of operations many times a month. At present, due to the dim moonlight, operations have stopped for few days. We only launch operations during moonlight because Kunar is all jungle and mountains and without such light there is a strong chance of falling into the crevasses," Jarrah explained.

Jarrah said that the Taliban's operations are based on various tactics and are not only asymmetric attacks. "We have tribes and people who live in particular places. They openly resist foreign troops in the Kunar Valley. Then we have organized guerrilla groups - we use them as our special forces - and finally we have a missile battery. Not a single day passes without the enemy facing several of our attacks in various parts of Nooristan and Kunar provinces.

"The fighters have acquired a lot of confidence due to their successes and now they confidently play tricks. Recently, we used Afghan National Army uniforms and laid siege to American troops in Nooristan and killed and wounded many of them. In return, the Americans threatened to bomb a whole village. That's why the local people didn't spy on the Taliban's positions," Jarrah said.

Suddenly, in the far distance, we saw the dark skies of Kunar light up.

"That is a light bomb used by the enemy to trace the Taliban's positions. That is approximately 10 kilometers from here, and obviously a battle is going on between the enemies and the Taliban. We are not necessarily aware of such battles every time," Jarrah said.

After a dinner of rice and chicken curry and saying the final prayers of the day, we all slept in an isolated mud house of the village. The call to morning prayers marked the start of a new day and a new struggle. After saying prayers and eating breakfast, the men who had accompanied us the previous evening left, but within two hours a new group joined us.

"They rotate throughout the day and night. Some of the people will go back to Pakistan to stay with their families and new ones will join us. Some will finish their guerrilla operations in the Kunar Valley and join us here to rest, and then a new guerrilla group will be launched," Jarrah said.

"But do you sometimes have a serious dearth of fighters?" I asked.

"Not at all," said Jarrah, laughing. "Instead, the real issue remains how to accommodate all the guerrilla groups because people are flooding to us to join the jihad and we don't always have enough resources to provide for them all at the same time. But I think we will increase our resources soon, and then you will see a flood of fighters finding its way against the foreign occupying forces."

Before I could ask any further questions, a tall man who introduced himself as Maroof asked me, "What is your name, Mr Journalist?" "Saleem Shahzad," I answered. "What?" I repeated my name. "Aren't you the one who was detained by the Taliban last year in Helmand? I listened to your interview on radio after your release," Maroof said with excitement.

"He is with us now, what happens if he is killed?" I heard Maroof inquiring of Jarrah in a loud whisper. Jarrah chuckled, "If he is killed, it would be the will of God."

Maroof was in the Afghan National Army and was once detained by the Americans for being in the army but "facilitating" the Taliban. He says he did not cough up anything during interrogation, but when he was released he promptly joined the ranks of the Taliban.

"The mujahideen have now acquired such strength that neither Pakistan nor NATO can fight against us. The Taliban are standing on both sides of the border. More operations breed more Taliban, and this time the Taliban will rule the whole region," Maroof said confidently.

Jarrah summoned a few armed men and we took a long walk on a mountain trail, ending up at a goat farm.

This was the Taliban's missile battery, comprising about 200 Russian-made rockets, which the Taliban call Sakar 20. They are 2.5 meters long with a range of about 30 kilometers and the capacity to devastate an area of about 100 square meters. The Taliban's Sarkano district battery has six donkeys to carry the weapons.

"We use these donkeys to carry the missiles and other equipment when we attack an enemy installation. In this terrain, donkeys are the only 'vehicles' that can be used as transport," Jarrah said.

"These missiles come from old dumps of weapons the Taliban recovered after the fall of the communist government in Afghanistan [in the early 1990s]. Russian technology is far superior to American," Jarrah said, and illustrated his point by taking out his Russian-made pistol.

"This pistol works like a revolver and you don't need to cock it like American pistols. It belonged to the Russian special forces. We have mostly Russian weapons stocks, but we have recently started using American weapons recovered from American troops or the Afghan National Army," Jarrah explained.

Behind the simple structures, I see the formation of a very well-trained army which was non-existent even a year ago. Only three years ago, the Taliban did not have a central command, secure bases, and the motivation they now obviously possess.

The ideologues of the neo-Taliban were raised and trained by the Pakistani military to bleed India, and now, using the same techniques, they aim to bleed NATO and the Pakistani Army.

But it was time to run - I had an appointment that evening with these Punjabi ideologues.


Reg pak forces now being more co-operative..

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article2836322.ece
Crisis brings hope to one frontier of the War on Terror
American troops have been struggling to combat militants crossing into Afghanistan. Suddenly Pakistan is coming to their aid

As American gun crews adjusted their 105mm howitzers to the co-ordinates of an insurgent group crossing the border from Pakistan, the night’s mission seemed like scores before it.

A brief pause, a sudden command and the surrounding mountains were illuminated by a stab of light as the guns launched their shells.

But this time something was different. Of the numerous Taleban infiltrations that the US airborne troops have engaged since arriving at their remote frontier base in eastern Afghanistan five months ago, this was the first time that they had been alerted to the enemy’s movement by Pakistani forces over the border.

Despite monthly meetings to co-ordinate halting cross-border movement by militants, the Pakistani forces had never once warned Attack Company of insurgents heading toward them.

..
We’re sharing the same border mission,” one exasperated US officer explained. “I have had Pakistani commanders who have wanted to react and to talk every day. They are up to their waist in bad guys over there. And they have reacted to my requests for co-operation. But here’s when they reacted: when they’re getting attacked they answered the phone. When we’re getting attacked they didn’t.”

To cap the American delight at the sudden spirit of co-operation, US soldiers in hilltop observation posts watched as Pakistani troops fired on five groups of militants as they struggled back towards the border under a hail of American shrapnel.

It may have been an isolated incident, but it could signify much more. And it illustrates the dilemma facing both President Musharraf and the West. Pakistan can be a crucial ally in the War on Terror and in pacifying Afghanistan, but there are limits to what General Musharraf can deliver as he struggles under emergency rule and the advance of radical Islam.

Pakistani forces have been badly humiliated recently in Waziristan, the tribal agency regarded as a safe haven and training ground for international jihadists as well as insurgents entering Afghanistan. During recent fighting with militants more than 200 Pakistani troops were taken prisoner and 50 more killed by tribal militias. Dozens surrendered this week to extremists in the scenic Swat Valley, a former favourite of Pakistani and Western tourists, as militants seized three police stations.

But whether or not Pakistan’s demoralised forces in Waziristan now choose to co-operate with the Americans, life for Attack Company, 1st Battalion, 503rd Airborne Infantry is unlikely to get easier.

Their firebase FOB Tillman — named after the National Football League star Patrick Tillman who became a US Ranger and was killed near here in 2004 — seems a tiny microcosm of all the challenges besetting coalition troops in Afghanistan.

The company, based only three kilometres (1¾ is hugely overstretched, even with an Afghan National Army (ANA) unit attached, and a group of Afghan mercenaries. Fewer than 500 American and Afghan troops are responsible for a border area of several hundred kilometres, all of it rugged mountain territory.

“This has been as much or more contact than I had in Iraq,” said Captain Hammonds, Attack Company’s commander. “There’s a legitimate chance of getting overrun here. One observation post was once hit by 120 individuals. The enemy has so much freedom of movement, the area is so big and there are so few coalition forces here.”

Overall they have received little help from Pakistan, whose past efforts to police their side of the border have been a mess of contradictory signals.

American officers said they had witnessed infiltrating militants pass through Pakistani army checkpoints unchallenged before crossing into Afghanistan. Yet at other times the Americans have watched fierce gunbattles between Pakistani troops and militants.

Part II - brings out the Punjabi - Pushto strains and the amalgamation of some members of anti-Indian orgs like LeT with the neo-taliban. Talks about taliban aim of creating an islamic emirate in NWFP+southern Afghan Pushto areas.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/IK14Df04.html
RISE OF THE NEO-TALIBAN, Part 2
'Pain has become the remedy'
By Syed Saleem Shahzad


NAWA PASS, Pakistan border with Afghanistan - While I was waiting in a village mud mosque, several motorbikes emerged from the evening darkness along a dirt track.

Four strongly built men stopped in front of me and alighted, their faces flushed from their ride. They each gave me a hug, and their traditional Punjabi greeting was music to my ears after listening to a lot of Pushtu.

I asked the obvious question: "Are you Punjabi?" The concern on their faces was immediately noticeable. "No! We belong to this land and like many Afghans we were settled in Punjab [in Pakistan] and therefore learnt Punjabi and forgot Pashtu, but now we are back in our land and have learnt our language again," one of the men explained.

This is perhaps somewhat romantic. Although such Punjabis might have romantic ties with Afghanistan, they actually come from Pakistani Punjab. Before the partition of British India in 1947, Punjab was seen as a loyal colony of the British and their recruits fought against the Afghans. After partition, Punjabis were seen as usurpers who divided the Pashtun tribes in the name of a new country called Pakistan. To many Afghans, Punjabis are opportunists and while they claim to be Muslims, their culture is a blend of Hinduism and Sikhism.

Sadiq is not a commander: he cannot be, because whatever he might say about his ethnicity, for Afghans he is a Punjabi. I watched as he spoke fluent Pashtu to his Afghan comrades, moving from one group to another with a permanent smile on his face. Clearly, he is the natural leader of the diaspora of Punjabi guerrillas now in Afghanistan.

Sadiq was in the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a Pakistani jihadi group focused on the struggle to regain Indian-administered Kashmir. He was trained by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to conduct guerrilla operations all across India. He knows how to generate resources and lead sorties.

He joined the Taliban in late 2004 as an ordinary fighter, but because of his skills he quickly rose through the ranks. He became a trainer and honed his men's battle skills. And although he is not a commander, he is more respected and important than many of them. He is the mastermind of all guerrilla operational plans in Afghanistan's Kunar Valley.

An emirate in the making

I said my final prayers of the day and had my dinner. It was tolerably cold, and I sat back and by the light of a gas lamp watched and listened to tired guerrillas discussing their day.

"I was thinking before coming here, how do you say your Friday prayers in the battlefield - I noticed you did not say any today?" I started the conversation with Sadiq.

"First, we are all travelers, so Friday prayers are not compulsory. But most importantly, this region has been declared darul harb [enemy country], so Friday prayers are suspended until it becomes darul Islam [abode of Islam]," Sadiq replied.

I continued this discussion with Sadiq on prayers and the circumstances in which they are suspended and restored, and soon all the people in the mud hut had gathered around and the conversation turned to the new dynamics of the Afghan resistance.

So I launched a series of questions. "It is still not clear who is in whose command. What is the command of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar [leader of the Hezb-i-Islami]? Is [veteran Afghan resistance figure] Jalaluddin Haqqani under [Taliban leader] Mullah Omar, or is he commanding separately? Who do the Pakistan Taliban answer to? To Mullah Omar? And what are Pakistani jihadis up to?

Sadiq smiled at the barrage of questions and responded with some breaking news, "Mullah Omar, the Taliban shura [council], al-Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban have resolved this issue once and for all. Soon the mujahideen will announce the revival of a [region-wide] Islamic emirate, and after this - like all fighting groups gathered under a single command in Iraq - all commanders in Afghanistan will fall under the umbrella of the Islamic emirate.

"The Islamic emirate will govern [operations in] Afghanistan and Pakistan, and whether it is Gulbuddin Hekmatyar or any other, they will be under a single command and will not be able to defy the emirate because this is Islam," Sadiq said.

The pronouncement of an emirate would be a major development, and I jumped to my feet. "Are you sure that an Islamic emirate will be announced soon?"

"Yes, indeed," said Sadiq smiling.

"Sadiq, you know what this means? It would challenge both Pakistan and Afghanistan. Are the Taliban capable of doing this?" I asked.

"Of course we are," Sadiq replied calmly.

"How?" I asked.

"Three years ago, it was actually a dream, but now circumstances have enabled such an environment. Apart from North Waziristan and South Waziristan [tribal areas in Pakistan], the mujahideen used to move in Bajaur [Agency] and Mohmand Agency as if they were moving in [the Pakistani cities of] Karachi or Lahore. We were terrified of being arrested and of the fact that somebody would be spying on us.

"We used to make secret trips to Afghanistan to conduct occasional raids. On the one side the Americans were after us, and on the other side our own Pakistani army was tracking us. We didn't want to fight the Pakistan army, after all, they are Muslims. We tried our best to avoid fighting them, and still hardly 3% of the mujahideen are fighting against them. However, Pakistan did not think the way we were thinking. They were more cruel and gruesome than the Americans.

"We had a companion who had fought alongside us in Kashmir. His name was Umer, and he was dead against fighting the Pakistani army. Whenever the military conducted operations, he used to desert his companions, saying he could not fight against Muslims.

"One day, he was arrested by the ISI. They hung him by one hand from a roof, and carved stars on his thighs with daggers. They humiliated him in all manners. When he was released, it was thought he would be a broken person.

"But now he is an advocate of jihad against the Pakistani army, bigger than anybody else. These sorts of incidents have turned the mujahideen into our camp. They understand they have been fooled in the name of jihad in Kashmir," said Sadiq, referring to Islamabad's de-escalation of fighting in the Kashmir Valley.

"In 2003, a gathering in Muredkey [the LeT's Pakistani headquarters] was an eye-opener to sincere jihadis. Hafiz Mohammed Saeed [chief of the LeT] introduced us to one Abdullah, a person wearing a prayer cap and a small beard. Many among us knew he was the head of the ISI's Kashmir cell.

"He addressed the gathering and made the point that the Kashmiri jihad could not achieve its objectives and that it was a lame duck. He advised the mujahideen to sit quietly at home until new circumstances developed. This sort of advice turned people into our camp, but the real revolution came because of al-Qaeda," Sadiq said.

"[Senior al-Qaeda leader] Abu Marwan al-Suri was killed [in May 2006] by the Khasadar force in Bajaur Agency. This is a force of peons. Had Marwan been killed by any elite commando force of the Pakistani army, we would not have been so saddened, but for a person like him to be killed by a third-rate force like the Khasadars, it was bad.

"He was traveling in bus when he was identified as an Arab and was asked to descend. He took out his revolver and warned the Khasadars that he was a mujahid and did not want to kill any Muslims, so they should let him go. The Khasadars did not listen to him. You know Arabs, they do not escape - they fight until their last - but he tried to flee to avoid fighting Muslims, and was killed.

"His body was photographed and the pictures were presented to the Americans with pride and the people responsible received medals. Every mujahid felt humiliated. Brother ... our blood is not so cheap to be played around with by any third-rate person. Mujahideen were full of rage. They rose from their hideouts.

"Marwan's body became an inspiration. The aroma from his blood was a legend in Bajaur and his graveyard became a holy site. Reaction swept through Bajaur and in a matter of days the Khasadars' posts were wiped out and blown up. The army came to conduct operations, but was defeated.

"Our victories gathered all tribes around us. You know our biggest commander in Bajaur, Maulana Faqir Muhammad, was trained by the Pakistani army to resist the Soviets [in the 1980s] but after September 11 his brother was detained by the army. He was beaten to death.

"In 2005 the Taliban were limited to South Waziristan and North Waziristan and in Mohmand Agency there were only a few dozen of them, but now we number 18,000, thanks to the operations of the Pakistani army," Sadiq said, his face full of emotion.

"You asked me what makes us think we can establish an Islamic emirate," Sadiq said, and then recited famous Urdu and Persian poet Mirza Asadullah Baig Khan, who went under the pen name of Ghalib: "Pain has crossed its limits and has become the remedy."

"We have braved all their tyrannies. They cannot be more tyrannical than that. We are hardened and they are tired and now it is our turn and I promise that we will turn the tables on them soon," Sadiq said.

We were all tired, and went to bed, but my brain was racing so much it was a while before sleep came.

The next morning at breakfast we pick up on the same topic.

"Sadiq, whether it is right or wrong, don't you think that the new Taliban plans will create problems within the Pakistani army?" I asked.

"That does not matter. This battle cannot stop now. The mujahideen have been deceived so many times that now they have decided to fight the Pakistani army at all costs," Sadiq said, sipping his tea.

After a long pause, he continued, "You know, the Taliban are blamed for all the problems, but in actual fact it is America which will never allow a ceasefire between the Pakistani army and the mujahideen. The Americans will force the Pakistani army to fight against us and therefore this battle will continue," Sadiq said.

"Man, you are fighting against the army and blaming America," I taunted him.

"I will tell you why. The Americans know exactly how near we are to Islamabad and they are aware of defections in the Pakistani army, and they are also aware that only one or two defections at the level of colonel will mean that the mujahideen will get their hands on some batteries of missiles which can carry nuclear warheads.

"And they [Americans] know the moment the mujahideen get that, the game will turn in favor of the mujahideen both in Pakistan and Afghanistan, and then nobody will be able to stop our march. So the Americans want a big battle between the army and the mujahideen so that the end game will be that they can step in and destroy Pakistan's nukes under the pretext that the Pakistani army cannot protect them from the mujahideen," Sadiq said.

Shortly after breakfast, the Taliban said goodbye to me. On my way home, as I passed deserted checkpoints in Bajaur, I cast my mind back to the origins of the US-led "war on terror", the attacks of September 11, 2001.

Al-Qaeda carried these out with a particular aim - to invite the wrath of the American "cowboys" who would beat up Muslims to such an extent that a severe backlash would be generated.

Six years have passed, and we have had the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq (maybe Iran in the offing). Yet it might be in the tribal areas of Pakistan that the real showdown begins. I can just imagine the dance of jubilation Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri will do on the news of a fresh grand operation by the Pakistani army there - it will only breed more Taliban.

Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief. He can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com

Oh, yeah, the US did a terrific job of breaking up their little party with our Super-ooper-dooper-mega-plan, didn't we? Sigh. I'm sorry. That's all I can say.

But.....when did we get rid of the first Taliban? Don't tell me they're starting to copy the IRA......

What these guys label the Sakar 20 is likely the 122mm artillery rocket used on the Russian BM-21, equipped with an HE warhead. Although I doubt their claim that it's got a 100 meter blast radius, and that it's particularly useful given the inaccuracy of the 122mm rocket at 30 kM, without the truck launcher or proper artillery coordinates and spotting.

They would be as likely to hit an empty field or packed apartment with how they're using that rocket as they are to hit a US base. Sounds like they're playing the role of their own cheerleaders.

But.....when did we get rid of the first Taliban? good question.

we didnt.

good question.

we didnt.

So, they are just splintering into a bunch of smaller talibans, each with a different name and slightly different agenda?


Crap.

So, they are just splintering into a bunch of smaller talibans, each with a different name and slightly different agenda?


Crap.

It's like being barefoot and breaking a glass window when you want to get into the room. Sure, the window was in the way before, but now the window is in pointy little shards all over the floor waiting to lodge itself in your big toe.

It has to be said Afghans are extremely hardy and have never accepted occupation, British Empire, Pakistan, the Soviets they've all failed in keeping Afghanistan as their own, and now it seems that Britain and America will not be defeated but its hard to see how they can win either. Unless Pakistan does something about the madressa's in waziristan and the northern frontier churning out zealots there will never be an end. The Mujahideen managed to fight off the Soviet Union, by doing exactly what the "Modern" Taleban are doing; going guerilla.

Also the invasion of Afghanistan was botched from the start, immedietly after 9/11, America should have gone into the Tora Bora mountains and taken Usama bin Laden out, because it wasn't until December 2001 that coalition ground forces actually arrived in the area. He escaped and he's probably still in Pakistan to this day.

Don't tell me they're starting to copy the IRA......
Which IRA? :p

It's like being barefoot and breaking a glass window when you want to get into the room. Sure, the window was in the way before, but now the window is in pointy little shards all over the floor waiting to lodge itself in your big toe.
I approve of this simile. Or analogy. I'm not sure :(
Which IRA? :p

All of them.

It's like being barefoot and breaking a glass window when you want to get into the room. Sure, the window was in the way before, but now the window is in pointy little shards all over the floor waiting to lodge itself in your big toe.

It's more like the administering of antibiotics to an infection. The treatment was working (The U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in the wake of 9-11) but instead of finishing out the prescription and insuring every little speck of germ was gone (i.e. staying in Afghanistan to completely eradicate the Taliban's presence physically and politically, and set up a truly functional and stable democratic government) someone had to stop early and move on to some other pills (pulling out of Afghanistan when the job wasn't even half-ass done and invade Iraq). So now the surviving germs have multiplied and grown drug-resistant.

Its really not news, for anyone that pays any attention to the world.

Slowly slowly....the taliban rolls on...eerily reminding of the way they started out in Afghanistan...

As long as the fighting is confined to the hills, the army can hold the tide.

The biggest risk, IMHO, is a potential coup from within the ranks. When Zia started his "islamisation" drive, he did not just make jihadis out of madrassa students....islamism took roots within the then professional army cadres itself.

http://thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=11200
PESHAWAR/MINGORA: Undeterred by continuous attacks and shelling of security forces on their suspected hideouts and positions, militants in turbulent Shangla district continued their advance and entered on Friday the hometown of provincial president Pakistan Muslim League-Q Engineer Amir Muqam.

General Maj-Gen Waheed Arshad told The News that gunship helicopters and artillery continued targeting militants’ positions in Swat’s Kooza Bandai and Alpuri, the district headquarters of Shangla on Friday. He, however, said there were no details about losses suffered by the militants.

Six persons, including three women, sustained injuries when gunship helicopters targeted residential buildings in Kooza Bandai and Charbagh. The injured were identified as Khushboo, Munawwar Sher, Robeena, Farhad Ali, Shaista and Rehana. They have been shifted to a Saidu Sharif Hospital.

Militants' spokesman Sirajuddin called The News and claimed they had captured Puran subdivision and later handed it over to a commission of local pro-Taliban Ulema and elders on the condition they would not allow the security forces and police in the town.

"They signed an agreement with us and promised physical and financial assistance," Siraj claimed.

He said the Ulema and elders would now run affairs of the subdivision as police and other government officials had disappeared before their (Taliban's) arrival.

Residents in Puran said after their arrival in the town, the militants set up check-posts at Yakh Tangi, Dherai Top on Chakesar Road and Dua village.

Local residents said hundreds of militants in the wee hours of Friday entered the Puran subdivision, the hometown of Engineer Amir Muqam, and peacefully captured all police stations and government buildings, which had been already vacated by local police and other concerned officials.

"By capturing both the subdivisions – Alpuri and Puran – they virtually took hold of the whole Shangla district," said a local union council nazim, while talking to The News on telephone from Puran.

According to sources, militants were now at a distance of only two kilometres from Amir Muqam's ancestral village in Chagam.

Members of Amir Muqam's family, who survived a deadly suicide attack in Peshawar, have already shifted to Islamabad. Five persons including a close relative of Amir Muqam, Pir Muhammad Khan, were killed in the suicide attack.

Shangla District Nazim Dr Ibadullah Khan, who is younger brother of Amir Muqam, has shifted to a safe place after realising that there was no one to stop the militants' advance.

Talking to The News from an undisclosed location, Dr Ibadullah said a Jirga of local elders held negotiations with the militants and persuaded them to leave Puran as peace already existed there and the residents were true Muslims. He said militants now started searching houses for government servants.

He said militants had shifted police inspector Sher Hasan to an undisclosed location after picking him up from his home.

On the other hand, Pakistan Army troops from their bases at Kund in Bisham and Matta Aghwan near Belay Baba continued firing mortar and artillery shells on the militant hideouts.

Some of the shells fell on residential areas in which six houses were destroyed at Daulat Kalley Banda near Belay Baba.

Local villager Moeen Shah said his own and five other of his neighbours' houses were destroyed when shells hit their village on Thursday night.

Also, two soldiers of the Pakistan Army were injured when a roadside bomb hit a military convoy in Battagram district on their way to Shangla.

Meanwhile, hundreds of worried families left their abodes in the troubled Shangla district and shifted to comparatively safe areas in Bisham.

Authorities also clamped a 12-hour curfew in Swat district and Malakand Agency, starting from 2 am.

People living along the busy Malakand-Mingora road were directed through mosque loudspeakers not to come out of their homes from 2 am to 2 pm.

Official sources said the curfew was imposed to provide safe and unhindered passage to the troops, who would be proceeding to the restive region today (Saturday).

AFP adds: Major General Waheed Arshad said Cobra choppers Friday pounded two "miscreant" bunkers as well as mountain positions near the Saidu Sharif airport.

Artillery strikes in the same area on Thursday killed 40 rebels including a top commander, he said. The raids were in retaliation for a mortar strike on the airport on Wednesday night that killed two soldiers.

"We launched retaliatory fire. We intercepted the militant communications which confirmed they lost 40 men," Arshad said, adding that he had no details of casualties for Friday's fighting.

He said a leading militant commander named Matiullah was among the dead.

Residents said that Matiullah's funeral was led by the militant movement's fugitive leader, Maulana Fazlullah.

"We have lost a strong mujahid (holy warrior) leader," militant spokesman Sirajuddin said by phone from an unknown location, referring to Matiullah.

In another part of the valley, troops dug in overnight and launched new attacks against a "heavy presence of miscreants who are occupying various heights" along one of the main roads leading toward China, Arshad said.

In other areas, militants are taking a beating.

http://www.rediff.com/news/2007/nov/17pak.htm
Pakistani soldiers backed by helicopter gunships fought pitched battles on Friday with pro-Taliban militants in the north-western Swat Valley, where at least 80 militants including a top rebel commander have been killed since Thursday night.

Over 130 people, most of them militants, have died since the army launched an operation four days ago to evict armed followers of radical cleric Maulana Fazlullah, who have overrun most towns and villages in Swat before beginning a push into nearby Shangla district.

Troops closed several roads on Friday to prevent the movement of rebels as Cobra helicopter gunships hit militants concentrated near Kuza Banda, Najia Top and its foothills.

The gunships destroyed two militant bunkers near Saidu Sharif airport as well as bunkers nd two vehicles near Kabal sub-district, the army said.

The helicopters and artillery guns engaged militant positions near Alpuri, the headquarters of Shangla district, Kuza Banda and strategic heights along the Basham-Shangla road, killing 35 to 40 militants, it said.

Last night, shelling by army artillery guns killed 40 militants near Kuza Banda while five militants died in an attack by helicopter gunships that targeted a rebel ammunition dump in the same area, said military spokesman Maj Gen Waheed Arshad.

Militant commander Matiullah was killed in the shelling and his second-in-command, Muhammad Ali, was missing and feared dead, Arshad said.

Residents said Matiullah's funeral was led by Fazlullah, better known as FM Maulana for his sermons advocating jihad broadcast from an illegal radio station.

Fazlullah's spokesman Sirajuddin described Matiullah as a "strong mujahid (holy warrior)".

Two soldiers were injured when an army convoy was attacked by militants with grenades on the Mansehra-Batgram road on Friday morning.

The shelling in Kuza Banda was carried out in retaliation for an attack by militants on Saidu Sharif airport on Thursday in which two Frontier Constabulary personnel were killed and eight others injured.

The army said retreating militants had tried to take refuge in Kuza Banda village and threatened civilians there with dire consequences.

In Friday's operations, ground forces began moving towards Alpuri, the main town in Shangla district that was taken over by militants after the declaration of emergency, causing major embarrassment for President Pervez Musharraf [Images] and the army.

The troops began clearing militant positions in the mountains around Alpuri after consolidating their hold on areas from which rebels were pushed out on Thursday night.

Reports from Shangla said there was a "heavy presence" of militants occupying the heights along the Besham-Shangla road.

Twenty militants were killed in several actions on Thursday while 33 rebels were killed the day before.

The government has rushed thousands of troops to Swat and Shangla to quell the activities of militants loyal to Fazlullah, who wants the imposition of Shariat or Islamic law in the area.

tl;dr

more detailed article..

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/16/world/asia/16swat.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2007/11/16/world/16swat.600.jpg

A supporter of Maulana Fazlullah, an Islamic cleric, at a captured police station in Matta. Mr. Fazlullah leads the Movement for the Enforcement of Islamic Laws, a Taliban-style group.

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2007/11/16/world/1116-for-web-SWATmap.jpg

Militants Gain Despite Decree by Musharraf
By JANE PERLEZ and ISMAIL KHAN

PESHAWAR, Pakistan, Nov. 15 — Gen. Pervez Musharraf, the Pakistani president, says he instituted emergency rule for the extra powers it would give him to push back the militants who have carved out a mini-state in Pakistan’s tribal areas.

But in the last several days, the militants have extended their reach, capturing more territory in Pakistan’s settled areas and chasing away frightened policemen, local government officials said.

As inconspicuous as it might be in a nation of 160 million people, the takeover of the small Alpuri district headquarters this week was considered a particular embarrassment for General Musharraf. It showed how the militants could still thumb their noses at the Pakistani Army.

In fact, local officials and Western diplomats said, there is little evidence that the 12-day-old emergency decree has increased the government’s leverage in fighting the militants, or that General Musharraf has used the decree to take any extraordinary steps to combat them.

Instead, it has proved more of a distraction, they said, forcing General Musharraf to concentrate on his own political survival, even as the army starts its first offensive operation since the Nov. 3 decree.

The success of the militants in Swat has caused new concern in Washington about the ability and the will of Pakistani forces to fight the militants who are now training their sights directly on Pakistan’s government, not only on the NATO and American forces across the border in Afghanistan, Western officials said.

After several weeks of heavy clashes, the militants largely control Swat, the mountainous region that is the scenic jewel of Pakistan, and are pushing into Shangla, to the east. All of the sites lie deeper inside Pakistan than the tribal areas, on the Afghan border, where Al Qaeda, the Taliban and assorted foreign and local militants have expanded a stronghold in recent years. In Alpuri, the administrative headquarters of Shangla, a crowd of militants easily took over the police station, despite the emergency decree, Mayor Ibad Khan said.

“They came straight to the police station; it was empty,” he said in a telephone interview. The district police officer had run away. “I am still searching for him,” Mr. Khan said. Asked why the police station was empty, he said, “I am asking myself the same question.”

The shelling of militant positions in several subdistricts of Swat, and in neighboring Shangla in the last several days, was the first significant action by the Pakistani Army in the area, Western defense officials said.

One Western diplomat said a government military briefing Thursday in Islamabad was intended to convince foreign countries of the feasibility of the government offensive. Instead, the official said, the presentation only underscored the Pakistan Army’s lack of counterinsurgency skills as it tries to battle about 400 well-supplied and well-trained militants in the region.

In the past, the government has relied on paramilitary forces, the Frontier Corps and the constabulary to control Swat, which is part of North-West Frontier Province.

More than 2,000 Pakistani Army soldiers were deployed to the province in July, but they remained largely inactive, intimidated by the militants’ ability to capture soldiers.

The army said Thursday that more than two dozen militants had been killed in clashes since operations began three days ago.

But Maj. Gen. Waheed Arshad, a military spokesman, said the army had not cleared the main road in Alpuri by Thursday night.

The local militants in Swat are led by Maulana Fazlullah, a charismatic Islamic cleric, and are fortified by Islamic fighters of Uzbek, Tajik and Chechen origin, residents say. They say that although masks hide the foreigners’ faces, it is clear that they do not speak Pashto, the local language.

Mr. Fazlullah leads the Movement for the Enforcement of Islamic Laws, a Taliban-style group that has forced the closing of schools for girls and shut down video stores. He delivers his message on FM radio, a technique that the government has not curbed. Civilians in the area said the arrival of the army three days ago was not reassuring.

“The army has moved to the area, but so far I don’t see any practical steps for this crisis,” said Sher Muhammad, a lawyer, in a telephone interview from Swat. “We are just waiting. The situation is worse than 10 days ago.”

Civilians have already been killed, local residents said by telephone.

In Kanju, a town under the militants’ control, the army shelled a house, killing four people, said Walyat Ali Khan, a lawyer.

“The army controls the airport,” Mr. Khan said. “But the militants openly control the one-kilometer road from the airport to Kanju.” The militants also control the 15-mile stretch from Kanju to Matta, a town to the north.

In Koza Bani, another district the militants control, the army has suffered more casualties than the militants, said Amina Khan, who works with a local nongovernmental organization. “I called the mayor, and he said eight soldiers are dead, and only three Taliban are killed,” Ms. Khan said.

In Kabal, Fazal Wahab, a pharmacist, said the army and government paramilitary forces now controlled the main road. Three civilians, including a 9-year-old boy, were killed Wednesday by government shelling, and a government curfew that kept people inside on Wednesday meant it was hard to get food, he said.

Several events in the 12 days of martial law illustrate how little impact General Musharraf’s greater powers have had on the expanding insurgency.

On Nov. 4, the day after the declaration, General Musharraf approved the release of 213 soldiers who had been held captive by Baitullah Mehsud, one of the most powerful militant commanders in the tribal areas, in exchange for 25 militants captured in August.

General Musharraf acknowledged in an interview this week that some of the militants handed back to Mr. Mehsud were trained suicide bombers, and that one of the militants had been charged with involvement in a suicide attack.

The general said that he was not happy with the deal, but that Pakistan needed the soldiers back.

A suicide bomb attack on a government official in Peshawar last week showed how the militants were aiming at officials allied with General Musharraf.

The government official, Amir Muqam, the minister for political affairs in the tribal areas, survived the suicide attack on his home. His cousin, who was also a government official, was killed in the blast.

The attempt on Mr. Muqam’s life sent a chill through the government. He was carefully chosen. He had been a member of a religious party alliance that was sympathetic to the militants, and then switched allegiance and joined the general’s political party, the Pakistani Muslim League, several years ago.

General Musharraf seemed so appreciative of Mr. Muqam, that he hailed him at a public ceremony as a special friend, and presented him with a pistol.

Even though the militants numbered only in the hundreds, they would give “a tough time to the army, and they will cost the army a lot,” said Hasan-Askari Rizvi, a military analyst in Lahore.

He said the army would probably be able to expel the militants from the cities and towns. But the militants would take shelter in the mountains, and could survive the winter unscathed.

The soldiers, almost all of whom do not come from the region and feel like outsiders there, are unprepared for what could amount to a guerrilla war, he said.

Another problem was the intense barrage of propaganda from the religious clerics in the region. The messages exhorting soldiers not to fight a “foreigners war,” meaning a war on behalf of the United States, had undermined the morale of the government paramilitary forces that were leading the fight, he said.

“The army has never faced such a serious challenge in the tribal areas or in Swat before,” Mr. Rizvi said.


Pakistan was using the frontier constabulary and police (drawn from local tribals) to have some sort of control over there. These were lightly armed and poorly trained cadres who are thoroughly demoralised and won't fight the taliban.

It was expected that the regular army, which was deployed after Musharraf declared emergency, to check and beat back the militants.

It is not clear if this is succeeding or failing. I guess we have to wait and see.