NationStates Jolt Archive

http://edition.cnn.com/2007/BUSINESS/10/24/china.economy.ap/index.html

At this rate, when the crash comes, China will implode.

http://edition.cnn.com/2007/BUSINESS/10/24/china.economy.ap/index.html

At this rate, when the crash comes, China will implode.

yup

Not if China's domestic consumption continues to boom alongside exports. They can fuel their growth with internal demand as well as the continued income from exports. Even if there's a recession, demand doesn't really fall all that much; even in the 2001 recession the US still ran a trade deficit and China grew at a 9% rate.

The primary concern is asset bubbles inside China itself; however, I think the government will be able to bring many of them under control, especially with the new leadership in many key government positions. This remains to be seen, of course. Still, 11.5% growth is outstanding and bodes well for Chinese and world economic growth going in to 2008. It's also good to see inflation is being brought back under control, even if it is still too elevated for comfort.

Not if China's domestic consumption continues to boom alongside exports. They can fuel their growth with internal demand as well as the continued income from exports. Even if there's a recession, demand doesn't really fall all that much; even in the 2001 recession the US still ran a trade deficit and China grew at a 9% rate.

The primary concern is asset bubbles inside China itself; however, I think the government will be able to bring many of them under control, especially with the new leadership in many key government positions. This remains to be seen, of course. Still, 11.5% growth is outstanding and bodes well for Chinese and world economic growth going in to 2008. It's also good to see inflation is being brought back under control, even if it is still too elevated for comfort.

I meant the inevitable fuel crash.

http://edition.cnn.com/2007/BUSINESS/10/24/china.economy.ap/index.html

At this rate, when the crash comes, China will implode.

Yep, then they invade Australia and sell you off as labour in the man-love parlour. Life is harsh.

They've got a lorra lorra internal demand, and because it's still vaguely a state-run economy, they can try to reduce their rampant growth. Which they are. So there we go.

I meant the inevitable fuel crash.


I'm sure it will all work out fine.

They've got a lorra lorra internal demand, and because it's still vaguely a state-run economy, they can try to reduce their rampant growth. Which they are. So there we go.

Oh God you are Cilla Black.

http://edition.cnn.com/2007/BUSINESS/10/24/china.economy.ap/index.html

At this rate, when the crash comes, China will implode.

WOW!! nice job of stating the obvious.

Oh God you are Cilla Black.
Not quite, chuck :p

Not if China's domestic consumption continues to boom alongside exports. They can fuel their growth with internal demand as well as the continued income from exports. Even if there's a recession, demand doesn't really fall all that much; even in the 2001 recession the US still ran a trade deficit and China grew at a 9% rate.

The primary concern is asset bubbles inside China itself; however, I think the government will be able to bring many of them under control, especially with the new leadership in many key government positions. This remains to be seen, of course. Still, 11.5% growth is outstanding and bodes well for Chinese and world economic growth going in to 2008. It's also good to see inflation is being brought back under control, even if it is still too elevated for comfort.
What happened this week gives indication about the Chinese economy. Share market dropped 3.5% on the back of the Dow Jones drop. By Tuesday, while the Dow was still languishing, the Shanghai Index and the Hang Seng (HK) index bounced back 3%. It's currently trading back to close where it was before the Dow crash. Which - of course - was an all-time high already. The HangSeng has increased by over 40% since August 21 this year.
So, it's pretty resilient.
I figure that it'll keep going up, with a substantial (but not frightening) correction around Chinese New Year 2008, a rebound from that and then continue pushing upwards til a month or two at least after the Olympics. Reason being is that they need to pump billions into infrastructure for the Olympics + the PRC, desperate as they are to project China as being a healthy economic country, will do whatever they think is necessary to keep the economy humming along. The Olympics themselves will bring more international focus onto China leading to a bout of overseas investment. If the US economy is tanking by then, this will be lots of investment.

As well as the Chinese market, there's also the other 3 major emerging markets: Russia, India and Brazil. All of which are growing at excellent rates (~10%) and all are in need of massive investment in infrastructure. Brazil & Russia have huge amounts of natural resources, while India has a very young population (>40% of their population is under 15) which means a soon-to-be massive demand for consumer items.