NationStates Jolt Archive

Lets say that you are on a game show and object of the show is to win a sports car. There are three doors. One of the doors has a sports car behind it and the other two have goats behind them. The host tells you that if you can pick the door with the sports car behind it, you win the car. After you choose a door, the host opens another door that you did not choose to reveal a goat. So what should you do next?

What?

"deal... or no deal?"

The original diorama had consequences for picking the wrong door. So what's the penalty here? Terminal headbutts? Enforced and publically televised Goatse.cx?

The original diorama had consequences for picking the wrong door. So what's the penalty here? Terminal headbutts? Enforced and publically televised Goatse.cx?

The penalty is, death by swirly.

I would switch if I wanted to win the car. I personally would prefer the goat, though.

To win the car, you should switch. This is one of those counter-intuitive things, I seem to remember.

To win the car, you should switch. This is one of those counter-intuitive things, I seem to remember.

You are correct unless the goat is on a treadmill.

You guys are too smart for this one. Though some of my friends still debate me about this. They are really stubborn.

You are correct unless the goat is on a treadmill.

lol :cool:

I've heard that you're supposed to switch, but I've never really understood the logic behind it.

I've heard that you're supposed to switch, but I've never really understood the logic behind it.
Methinks it's because the gameshow host chose to open a door with a goat in it, rather than the one with the car. He knows where the car is, so you could anticipate that the probability of the unopened, unchosen door having the car behind it might be greater.

So him opening a door tells you nothing about the door you picked to start with, but it does tell you something about the door he didn't open.

You're supposed to switch to the other door.

Although really, I would want a goat so I'd be happy with whatever I got out of that one.

I've heard that you're supposed to switch, but I've never really understood the logic behind it.
Because you go from having a 1/3 chance of having chosen the right door to a 1/2 chance of picking the right door.

You are correct unless the goat is on a treadmill.
A threadwin for Gartref there!
Because you go from having a 1/3 chance of having chosen the right door to a 1/2 chance of picking the right door.
Yeah, thats it. The solution is simple, but apparently counter-intuitive.

EDIT: Not quite, apparently.

Spoiler image in the link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Solution

EDIT2: Apparently, it is vital to know if the host will reveal a goat deliberately. In the 'Monty Hall problem', the host knows where the goat is, changing the odds as above. However, if the host is in the dark about where the goats are, and is opening a door at random then it makes no difference whether you switch.

So, taking the OP literally, and assuming the host is in the dark, it makes no difference what you do.

I wouldn't switch.

A. I'm stubborn.
B. In every test I ever took I always second-guessed myself and got the answer wrong.
C. Sportscars eat up a lot of gas even if they are cool.
D. Goats are cool and you don't need to stick a gas hose in their arses... even though you might want to... just don't. It's not nice.

Switch? Switch what? What the hell are you people talking about?

you are offered the chance to change your pick to the other unrevealed door.

you switch because you have now much better odds if you switch.

because the host will never show you the door that holds the sports car, if you switch you get the odds associated with 2 doors instead of the 1 door's odds at the beginning.

Lets say that you are on a game show and object of the show is to win a sports car. There are three doors. One of the doors has a sports car behind it and the other two have goats behind them. The host tells you that if you can pick the door with the sports car behind it, you win the car. After you choose a door, the host opens another door that you did not choose to reveal a goat. So what should you do next?

I would tell the host to go fuck himself.