NationStates Jolt Archive

Do you believe that history is cyclical? I'm current reading a book by Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., Cycles of American History. He mentions several cycles that seem to turn up fairly regularly, mostly the oscillation between public progressivism (Wilson, FDR) and private interests (Coolidge, Reagan). It struck a chord with me, mostly because it means that what is going on in America now will have a backlash.
What do posters here think? Is history, in general, cyclical? Or is it completely linear, growing on itself?

I believe that history is history and if history is history then what is herstory?

I believe that history is history and if history is history then what is herstory?

Err...I think it's still history.

I think the general populous gets tired of social change then takes a few years to recover. I see the current era as similar to the era following the Civil War. 1865-1900 We had a bunch of forgettable leaders that did nothing of any real consequence.

While the 1963-1975 era had a war the real thing was social change. Reagan tapped into the tiredness of the people in all the social change. Since then we've been in a pull back era where nothing has happened.

Do you believe that history is cyclical? I'm current reading a book by Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., Cycles of American History. He mentions several cycles that seem to turn up fairly regularly, mostly the oscillation between public progressivism (Wilson, FDR) and private interests (Coolidge, Reagan). It struck a chord with me, mostly because it means that what is going on in America now will have a backlash.
What do posters here think? Is history, in general, cyclical? Or is it completely linear, growing on itself?

Books like this seem to come out every 30 years or so.

Books like this seem to come out every 30 years or so.

It's funny you say that, because the book mentions 30 year cycles.
Lest anyone think that this is a pop history/behavioral science book, let me assure you it's not. Schlesinger was a respected historian, winning two Pulitzers and a Francis Parkman award. Nor does the book say they are definite cycles; it's not "biorhythms." It's mostly about tradition and countertradition, and the two biggest ideas about the US, as an experiment and as a chosen people. Well worth the read, if for no other reason than seeing Schlesinger bash Reagan's foreign policy.

I think there's also the factor of the youth vote to consider.
Think how many ppl grew up under Reagan/Bush I as their president (or in Britain, Thatcher/Tories as their govt).
Their formative years were developed under right-wing policy-makers. That's going to affect the way they view politics. They grew up being told that this was normal (hate the poor, cut taxes for the rich etc).
As they progress through into their 30's, where they're more likely to get out and vote, that's a big block of ppl who will look nostalgically back to their early years and vote along those lines.


And of course there's voter fatigue. Govts get voted in on a wave of change. After 6-8 years they've become staid, laziness creeps in and scandals start appearing. They've now become the very thing they were going against.
The old party (now the opposition) starts to look attractive. Their policies are untested, so ppl feel optimistic about them - unlike current ruling party policy which everyone knows what to expect.

It's funny you say that, because the book mentions 30 year cycles.
Lest anyone think that this is a pop history/behavioral science book, let me assure you it's not. Schlesinger was a respected historian, winning two Pulitzers and a Francis Parkman award. Nor does the book say they are definite cycles; it's not "biorhythms." It's mostly about tradition and countertradition, and the two biggest ideas about the US, as an experiment and as a chosen people. Well worth the read, if for no other reason than seeing Schlesinger bash Reagan's foreign policy.
30 years is usually viewed as a generation.
Markets go in 30-50 year cycles. We've hit major depressions ever ~50 years, with booms and recessions in between.