NationStates Jolt Archive

Headed right for the GOM. $100/barrel here we come.

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/pt_BR/tropical/strm8_strike_720x486.jpg

This guy...

http://image.weather.com/images/maps/tropical/map_spectrop02_ltst_6nh_enus_600x405.jpg

...is headed for the Gulf of Mexico.

Who's headed for the what now?

*hoards gasoline*

MINE!!!!! STAY BACK OR I'LL BITE YOU!!!!!

Oh, another tropical depression is hitting the Gulf.

What makes it an issue of oil price? Some off-shore drilling platforms about to get creamed?

50% of US domestic oil production is in the GOM. Almost all of US oil imports enter teh US through porst in the GOM and most of our oil refining facilities are neasr the coast of the GOM. Right after Katrina oil closed at the highest point ever - until this summer. We're at record highs now without a natural disaster.

Oh, another tropical depression is hitting the Gulf.

What makes it an issue of oil price? Some off-shore drilling platforms about to get creamed?

50% of US domestic oil production is in the GOM. Almost all of US oil imports enter teh US through porst in the GOM and most of our oil refining facilities are neasr the coast of the GOM. Right after Katrina oil closed at the highest point ever - until this summer. We're at record highs now without a natural disaster.
I've said for years that if terrorists were actually interested in harming the US, they'd strike at the oil tanker docks in Louisiana.

I've said for years that if terrorists were actually interested in harming the US, they'd strike at the oil tanker docks in Louisiana.

Yeah. Better yet, the Straights of Hormuz.

http://www.dinocrat.com/wp-content/Hormuz1.gif

50% of US domestic oil production is in the GOM. Almost all of US oil imports enter teh US through porst in the GOM and most of our oil refining facilities are neasr the coast of the GOM. Right after Katrina oil closed at the highest point ever - until this summer. We're at record highs now without a natural disaster.

This season has already seen fewer hurricanes than expected, most veering to the south of the US coastline. The southeast has been experiencing a mild drought the entire summer because of it. If anything, the chance of a Katrina-like disaster this year is much smaller than normal.

This season has already seen fewer hurricanes than expected, most veering to the south of the US coastline. The southeast has been experiencing a mild drought the entire summer because of it. If anything, the chance of a Katrina-like disaster this year is much smaller than normal.

I'm not talking about what the chance of a hurricane hitting the gulf is. I'm saying that there's an actual depression forming that is expected to turn into a hurricane and that's projected path takes it into the GOM. The chance of an occurence is only important until the actual occurence happens. Once it does the chance becomes 100%.

I've said for years that if terrorists were actually interested in harming the US, they'd strike at the oil tanker docks in Louisiana.

don't give them ideas! :rolleyes:

I'm not talking about what the chance of a hurricane hitting the gulf is. I'm saying that there's an actual depression forming that is expected to turn into a hurricane and that's projected path takes it into the GOM. The chance of an occurence is only important until the actual occurence happens. Once it does the chance becomes 100%.

Yes, the projected path, the 100% accurate measure of a storm's movement.

The projected path for Hurricane Dean earlier this year took it across Florida, but the storm ended up going below the Yucatan Penninsula. This tropical depression just formed and the first projection has it going into the Gulf, a path that could easily change by the time it gets within sight of the Caribbean Isles. Like you say, the chance is important only until the occurrence happens, so don't get worked up about $100 a barrel until this storm actually wrecks oil production and shipping, okay?

Yes, the projected path, the 100% accurate measure of a storm's movement.

The projected path for Hurricane Dean earlier this year took it across Florida, but the storm ended up going below the Yucatan Penninsula. This tropical depression just formed and the first projection has it going into the Gulf, a path that could easily change by the time it gets within sight of the Caribbean Isles. Like you say, the chance is important only until the occurrence happens, so don't get worked up about $100 a barrel until this storm actually wrecks oil production and shipping, okay?

Dean was never projected to hit Florida. There was only a small chance that it would hit the Gulf. I tracked it everyday.

Yes, you're right. This one may not hit the Gulf. Right now it's projected to. The chance, then, that a hurricane may hit the Gulf this hurricane season is no longer the same as it was last week. now the cahnce that a hurricane may hit teh gulf this hurricane season is exactly the same as the chance that the tropical depression in question may hit the gulf and will remain so until it does or doesn't. last week - or last July, for that matter, the chance was based on any given hypothetical tropical system. Right now the chance is based soley on the future path of TD 8.

It's too early to tell. Of course, it's probably more important to note the potential strength of the hurricane rather than where it's necessarily headed; a Category 3 hitting the GoM won't have anywhere near the same destruction and disruption as a 4 or 5.

All the more reason for me to buy that Prius or Chevy Volt.

Looks like God or mother nature really likes us at the moment (not)!

Headed right for the GOM. $100/barrel here we come.
It wasn't $100/barrel when the Mexican refineries had to shut down the last few times. It was fractionally higher.

This is good news, it means our benefactor Mr Chavez can now buy his dozen submarines.

Yeah. Better yet, the Straights of Hormuz.

As opposed to the Gays of Hormuz?

[Nitpicks] Straits.

This is good news, it means our benefactor Mr Chavez can now buy his dozen submarines.
...

He's hardly a benefactor.

...

He's hardly a benefactor.

This is Andaras Prime you're talking to. You know, the guy who thinks Stalin was a hero and that the Soviet Union was the closest thing to God? The kind of guy that makes socialism look unappealing to people who would actually benefit from the moderate kind of socialism many of us preach?

Anyway, Dan, I'm not going to wait with bated breath until it looks like it'll be

A. Reasonably strong

B. Actually heading towards the Gulf of Mexico.

Given the chaotic nature of hurricanes, they're difficult to predict path-wise, thus right now I'll not worry about it.

Looks like God or mother nature really likes us at the moment (not)!

Oh, neither has ever had any special attachment to us. People just like to think they do because it gives them a warm, fuzzy feeling. Reality is much colder.

It wasn't $100/barrel when the Mexican refineries had to shut down the last few times. It was fractionally higher.

A. That's because they were refineries, not oil production platforms.

B. That's because they had to shut down until teh storm passed. They weren't destroyed.

If this TD becomes a significant hurricane and it hits and damages or destroys oil production platform in the Gulf oil will skyrocket just as it did after Katrina.

This is Andaras Prime you're talking to. You know, the guy who thinks Stalin was a hero and that the Soviet Union was the closest thing to God? The kind of guy that makes socialism look unappealing to people who would actually benefit from the moderate kind of socialism many of us preach?

Anyway, Dan, I'm not going to wait with bated breath until it looks like it'll be

A. Reasonably strong

B. Actually heading towards the Gulf of Mexico.

Given the chaotic nature of hurricanes, they're difficult to predict path-wise, thus right now I'll not worry about it.

Hey, I'm not saying to pinch your dick and hold your piss. I'm saying that right now the depression's projected path brings it into the GOM and that if it indeed gets there then you should pinch your dick and hold your piss.

don't give them ideas! :rolleyes:

Terrorists are browse NS General? If they're reduced to looking for ideas on internet forums then I'm not too worried. :p

Hey, I'm not saying to pinch your dick and hold your piss. I'm saying that right now the depression's projected path brings it into the GOM and that if it indeed gets there then you should pinch your dick and hold your piss.

Yes, we will definitely need to metaphorically do that if it comes to that.

http://www.stormpulse.com/200708

Pretty cool site...

http://www.stormpulse.com/200708

Pretty cool site...

That is pretty bitchen.