NationStates Jolt Archive

Ever since the dawn of Mankind, man has tried to predict the future, whether it's with Runes, Tarot Cards, Fortune Tellers, psychics, or the magic 8 Ball. However, ever since the invention of the modern computer, People have started writing programs to help them predict the future. One of those group is called "The Merlin Project", their site, here (http://www.accessbest.com/merlin/). The computer program works by combing equations derived from celestial phenomena with past historical data and blends that information into a graphical time-line that accurately plots the chronology of future events. So far The Merlin Project boost that they predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, 9/11, O.J. acquittal, etc.

Another group that uses computers to predict the future is called "web bot". They use their computers to go throughout the Internet and capture changes in language patterns within Internet discussions. This aggregated data is then processed with software to determine various keywords, which they interpret in a predictive fashion. This group boost that they successfully predicted the USA/UK terrorist bust of a plot to use International flights to strike against both countries, as well as the Anthrax scare in Washington, as well as 9/11.

A Third group uses the computer, and the Old Testament written in Hebrew to predict the future. What they do is take the Old Testament, enter in a keyword into the computer, and the spaces that they want (like every five letter) and then the computer searches for the query. While this group has found past events (such as WW II, Soviet Union, etc.) talked about in the Old Testament, they have also boosted about finding out that Bush would win the re-election, and that one of Israel P.M. would be shot. They call themselves, The Bible Code (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bible_code).

(There is a fourth group that uses computers all around the world that basically use a program that 'flips a coin' (their words not mine) to predict the future, but I can't think of their name right now)

With these groups using computers, plus the Internet, the cosmos, and even the Old Testament to find out what will happen next, one will have to wonder if they're even predicting the future, or if what they are coming up with is so vague that it can be fitted to any situation? Another question is, how do they know that their computer programming is correct, they could be receiving a faulty reading. Finally, will any of the process that these group use to predict the future stand up to a Scientific study, or will it fall apart like Astrology reading?

I'd be shocked if any of it proved any kinda of mystical power of the stars or the cards or that kind of thing, but it sounds neat anyway. Take out the mystical element and I think it's just called statistical forecasting, or someting similar - which is pretty old. :p

I'm sure if you throw out enough vague information some of it will turn out to be right thats kind of how mystics and all that hoo hah have always worked

when machines can predict war, the biggest cause of political change we can talk but so far that work has gotten nowhere

Futures studies is an entire academic discipline dedicated to it.

Of course, it's far more broad than these kinds of specific predictions, but it has one big trump card over them: it tends to be pretty accurate. Even if they've made some mind-bogglingly off predictions, there are guys like Ray Kurzweil, Vernor Vinge, Hans Moravec and Freeman Dyson that have been on the ball on many or almost all of their projections.

The problem with predicting the future is that the future is fluid and never set in stone. Even the very act of predicting the future can change that future in ways nobody can calculate until it's too late.

The butterfly effect is a lot more than the title of really shitty movies.

Futures studies is an entire academic discipline dedicated to it.

Of course, it's far more broad than these kinds of specific predictions, but it has one big trump card over them: it tends to be pretty accurate. Even if they've made some mind-bogglingly off predictions, there are guys like Ray Kurzweil, Vernor Vinge, Hans Moravec and Freeman Dyson that have been on the ball on many or almost all of their projections.

Right, and the key is that their predictions are sensible changes for the whole of humanity in ways, not specifics like "George W. Bush Jr. will run for President of the United States and win in 2000."

Right, and the key is that their predictions are sensible changes for the whole of humanity in ways, not specifics like "George W. Bush Jr. will run for President of the United States and win in 2000."

Exactly. It's like "By 2020, these fields will have developed the capability to do this", not "WWIII will begin with a surprise attack on Taiwan on July 23, 2017".

Also, sure, they got some of their predictions right.
How many did they get wrong, again?

Another group that uses computers to predict the future is called "web bot". They use their computers to go throughout the Internet and capture changes in language patterns within Internet discussions. This aggregated data is then processed with software to determine various keywords, which they interpret in a predictive fashion.

This part is certainly interesting and there's a site - www.ifeelfine.org - that was an art experiment to trawl through blogs and then group keywords such as 'I feel' with words such as 'happy', 'sad', 'frustrated' etc, where it comes within, say, 5 words to monitor the emotional state of the Internet.

I can certainly see a method for predicting trends off this.

In a related note, there was something from Google where they note rises in search trends - the example given was something like...'capital of Somalia' and they worked out it was a question off a game show that was currently showing - if I'm right, they could see the time zone differences as the question tracked across America.

There's a lot to be gained in terms of predicting the future in using computers to trawl the Internet and come up with trends.

Predicting the future is futile.

Besides, everyone knows that only God knows the future! ;)

I know that y'all probably don't know the answer to this, but does anyone know which group I was talking about when I typed this in the OP?

(There is a fourth group that uses computers all around the world that basically use a program that 'flips a coin' (their words not mine) to predict the future, but I can't think of their name right now)

I'd like to see someone predict the weather with some accuracy before we try to predict anything else.

I know that y'all probably don't know the answer to this, but does anyone know which group I was talking about when I typed this in the OP?

Sounds somewhat familiar, but I'm not exactly sure. You're not imagining things though, I'm pretty sure something like that exists. ;)

Sounds somewhat familiar, but I'm not exactly sure. You're not imagining things though, I'm pretty sure something like that exists. ;)

They said that before 9/11, all of their computers went nuts, and they mean seriously nuts.

They said that before 9/11, all of their computers went nuts, and they mean seriously nuts.

Eh. I don't think I buy it, but I wanted to mention that I'd heard of something like it just to confirm - I really hate it when I can't remember something like that. ;)

I'd like to see someone predict the weather with some accuracy before we try to predict anything else.

:fluffle:

Predicting the future is futile.

Besides, everyone knows that only God knows the future! ;)

Erm, sorta the opposite of the Tick.



Deuteronomy 8:2
And thou shalt remember all the way which the LORD thy God led thee these forty years in the wilderness, to humble thee, and to prove thee, to know what was in thine heart, whether thou wouldest keep his commandments, or no.

Deuteronomy 13:3
For the Lord your God proveth you, to know whether ye love the Lord your God with all your soul.

2 Chronicles 32:31
God left him [Hezekiah], to try him, that he might know all that was in his heart.
Or maybe
again, Genesis 3:8
And Adam and his wife hid themselves from the presence of the Lord, amongst the trees of the garden.

Genesis 4:14
Behold, thou hast driven me out this day from the face of the earth; and from thy face shall I be hid.

Genesis 4:16
And Cain went out from the presence of the LORD, and dwelt in the land of Nod, on the east of Eden.

Genesis 11:5
And the Lord came down to see the city and the town.

Genesis 18:9
And they said unto him, Where is Sarah thy wife? And he said, Behold, in the tent.

Genesis 18:17
And the LORD said, Shall I hide from Abraham that thing which I do?

Genesis 18:20-21
And the Lord said, Because the cry of Sodom and Gomorrah is great, and because their sin is very grievous, I will go down now and see whether they have done altogether according to the cry of it, which is come unto me; and, if not, I will know.

Genesis 22:12
For now I know that thou fearest God, seeing thou hast not withheld thy son, thine only son from me.

Numbers 22:9
And God came unto Balaam, and said, What men are these with thee?

Deuteronomy 8:2
God led thee these forty years in the wilderness ... to know what what in thine heart.

Deuteronomy 13:3
The Lord your God proveth you, to know whether ye love the Lord your God.

2 Chronicles 32:31
God left him, to try him, that he might know all that was in his heart.

Job 1:7, 2:2
And the Lord said unto Satan, Whence comest thou? Then Satan answered the Lord, and said, from going to and fro in the earth, and from walking up and down in it.

Hosea 8:4
They have set up kings, but not by me: they have made princes, and I knew it not.

Jonah 1:3, 10
But Jonah rose up to flee unto Tarshish from the presence of the LORD ... For the men knew that he fled from the presence of the LORD, because he had told them.

Yup, context helps.

lol?

I forgot to add sarcasm signs, sorry. ;)

lol?

I forgot to add sarcasm signs, sorry. ;)Oh, it's all good. I have a few copies i like to nail on the doors of various churches around town.
:)

The Bush administration had some future-telling think tanks in regard to Iraq - they are the Heritage Foundation and the Project for a New American Century, unfortunately their predictions didn't pan out so well...

We may regard the present state of the universe as the effect of its past and the cause of its future. An intellect which at a certain moment would know all forces that set nature in motion, and all positions of all items of which nature is composed, if this intellect were also vast enough to submit these data to analysis, it would embrace in a single formula the movements of the greatest bodies of the universe and those of the tiniest atom; for such an intellect nothing would be uncertain and the future just like the past would be present before its eyes

Causal determinism.

Psychohistory ftw!

Psychohistory ftw!

:D Anyone here good at Heliconan Twisting?

It is kinda scary how close all the methodologies are though

It sounds like something interesting....using computers to figure out the future. Where can I get a program?:D

I know that y'all probably don't know the answer to this, but does anyone know which group I was talking about when I typed this in the OP?

Sounds like the Global Consciousness Project

http://noosphere.princeton.edu/home_bottom3.html

Also, sure, they got some of their predictions right.
How many did they get wrong, again?
There's the rub.
I predict that Hilary will win the Dem presidential nomination.
I predict that Obama will win the Dem presidential nomination.

In a few months time I'll now be able to claim that I correctly predicted who the Dems would choose as their US presidential election hopeful.
Thus I am an expert on all things US politics and should be given a time slot to rant about how clever I am.

There's the rub.
I predict that Hilary will win the Dem presidential nomination.
I predict that Obama will win the Dem presidential nomination.


Nah you won't be right! Mike Gravel will become US President!

A Third group uses the computer, and the Old Testament written in Hebrew to predict the future. What they do is take the Old Testament, enter in a keyword into the computer, and the spaces that they want (like every five letter) and then the computer searches for the query. While this group has found past events (such as WW II, Soviet Union, etc.) talked about in the Old Testament, they have also boosted about finding out that Bush would win the re-election, and that one of Israel P.M. would be shot. They call themselves, The Bible Code (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bible_code).

Most predictions are made after the event; when people try to make genuine predictions they tend to become unstuck. Take True Bible Code (http://www.truebiblecode.com/) for example:

We now predict a terrorist Dirty Bomb or Nuclear Bomb will hit the UN Tower in Midtown Manhattan on 2007Tammuz17/18, between Sunrise Thursday July 5th, and noon Friday July 6th, 2007

This is during the last second Pentecost month or late Pentecost month of this system, i.e. 2007Tammuz. It occurs during the '3rd hour of the day'. This day is stands for a month in the word symbolic fulfilment for the last days of this world. And using the 24 hour clock the 3rd hour of the daylight part of the day is the 15th hour by the 24 hour clock. So this is the 15th 24th of the greater 'day' of Acts2:15... ....

-snip nonsense-

That is the best understanding we have at present. This new date of 2007Tammuz17/18 is our 40th nuclear precise prediction date (where our prediction is for a day or for at most 5 days). In fact this whole series of nuclear prediction blunders has been the most ghastly thing that the LWs have done. But we are commanded to keep on seeking, knocking and asking, and so that is precisely what we do. In fact we are commanded by Joshua 6 to go round in interpretational circles after the month of our first prediction 2006Sivan, for 13 more months (a circling of Jericho for a month - we are now on our 13th circle in 2007Tammuz!). And we are commanded by 1 Kings 18:43 to go back to look for a mushroom cloud ascending from the sea for 7 times.

They've been wrong 39 times now and they still believe it. :rolleyes: To date, nobody has ever demonstrated supernatural precognition (i.e. predictions which can't be reasonably explained by analysis of previous events, blind luck, or self-fulfilling prophecy) under scientific test conditions.

:fluffle:

Supposively accurate weather prediction should actually be possible, instead people are trying to do some precognition crap that is hardly feasible. Knowing it it is going to rain sounds like something we could all find useful. :)

One look at the Merlin Project website mentioned in the OP, and I realized it was a bunch of crap.

It's interesting that the government in 1995 paid for any of it.

Wonder who was President then...

It's about as silly as Reagan and his astrologer.

One look at the Merlin Project website mentioned in the OP, and I realized it was a bunch of crap.

It's interesting that the government in 1995 paid for any of it.

Wonder who was President then...

It's about as silly as Reagan and his astrologer.

The President has no control over appropriations of funds. That would be Congress' job. The Pres can ask for funding, but it's up to Congress to give said funding.

Take a guess who was in control of Congress at the time?

See how easy it is to turn it around when you point out facts.

One look at the Merlin Project website mentioned in the OP, and I realized it was a bunch of crap.

It's interesting that the government in 1995 paid for any of it.

Wonder who was President then...

It's about as silly as Reagan and his astrologer.

Actually it was Nancy who had the Astrologer, Reagan just humored her.

The President has no control over appropriations of funds. That would be Congress' job. The Pres can ask for funding, but it's up to Congress to give said funding.

Take a guess who was in control of Congress at the time?

See how easy it is to turn it around when you point out facts.

Guess who didn't veto it.

Guess who was in command of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Causal determinism.
Doesn't apply on a nanoscale, which is the scale you would have to get down to in order to 'know everything'.