NationStates Jolt Archive

China's leader dies and a new leader takes up power in Beijing. This new leader has expansionist aims, and begins with invasions of Mongolia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Nepal, using staged terrorist attacks in Chinese cities as an excuse. Despite Russian pleas, China launches a bombing raid on a refugee camp outside of Ulaan Bataar, claiming that rockets had been fired on the Chinese positions in the city from that camp. After the invaded nations had been assimilated into the new Chinese empire, tensions rise between the two nations. Eventually China, aided by anti-capitalist rebels and North Korean troops, invade the Kamchatka peninsula and Sakhalin, using the excuse that Chinese workers on the islands had been attacked and imprisoned by the Russians. The Russians respond in kind by bombing northern Chinese cities and recapturing the peninsula.
China eventually makes good on its threats with the nuking of Vladivostok. The imminent panic in Russia forces the Kremlin to put forward a vote of no confidence in the President. A power-hungry oil tycoons sees this as a major business opportunity and, supported by a massive army of mercenaries, overruns the shadow Russian army in the peninsula and captures territory as far west as Irkutsk before a defeat at Kyzyl, Tuva. The oligarch then secedes from the Russian Federation, forming the Democratic States of Kamchat-Siber.
During this panic, Russia is eventually broken up into 6 new nations, including Kamchat-Siber. Encompassing European Russia is the Kingdom of Muscovia. In Southern European Russia is the new Republic of Chechnya. In Ural Russia is the Skarlainian Federation. In North-Central Russia is the Mitrovsk Confederation, and in the south, near the border with China is the Novaya Sovetskikh Respublik.

Is this feasible, or is it just a load of bull?

China's leader dies and a new leader takes up power in Beijing. This new leader has expansionist aims, and begins with invasions of Mongolia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Nepal, using staged terrorist attacks in Chinese cities as an excuse.

Is this feasible, or is it just a load of bull?

A load of bull. If China "expanded" into any of the bolded nations, you can bet your life that Russia will force China to fold or call The Big Bluff.

Better hope they fold...nuclear war ain't pretty.

why?

Dunno, might as well consult someone that has a better perspective of the geopolitical conditions of that region.

Are you writing some sort of Clancy-ish novel?

Is this feasible, or is it just a load of bull?
Sounds like this belongs in the Fantasy Section.

Well, were China to indicate they wished to expand at all, Russia and in all probability the United States of America would use that as an excuse to come down on top of them like a tonne of bricks.

And probably Japan, too. You know, "Manchuria this!", etc.

Dunno, might as well consult someone that has a better perspective of the geopolitical conditions of that region.

Are you writing some sort of Clancy-ish novel?
If he is he would be a few years too late, I think Clancy already did Russia vs China war...

How overly specific is that?

China's leader dies and a new leader takes up power in Beijing. This new leader has expansionist aims, and begins with invasions of Mongolia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Nepal, using staged terrorist attacks in Chinese cities as an excuse. Despite Russian pleas, China launches a bombing raid on a refugee camp outside of Ulaan Bataar, claiming that rockets had been fired on the Chinese positions in the city from that camp. After the invaded nations had been assimilated into the new Chinese empire, tensions rise between the two nations. Eventually China, aided by anti-capitalist rebels and North Korean troops, invade the Kamchatka peninsula and Sakhalin, using the excuse that Chinese workers on the islands had been attacked and imprisoned by the Russians. The Russians respond in kind by bombing northern Chinese cities and recapturing the peninsula.
China eventually makes good on its threats with the nuking of Vladivostok. The imminent panic in Russia forces the Kremlin to put forward a vote of no confidence in the President. A power-hungry oil tycoons sees this as a major business opportunity and, supported by a massive army of mercenaries, overruns the shadow Russian army in the peninsula and captures territory as far west as Irkutsk before a defeat at Kyzyl, Tuva. The oligarch then secedes from the Russian Federation, forming the Democratic States of Kamchat-Siber.
During this panic, Russia is eventually broken up into 6 new nations, including Kamchat-Siber. Encompassing European Russia is the Kingdom of Muscovia. In Southern European Russia is the new Republic of Chechnya. In Ural Russia is the Skarlainian Federation. In North-Central Russia is the Mitrovsk Confederation, and in the south, near the border with China is the Novaya Sovetskikh Respublik.

Is this feasible, or is it just a load of bull?

Sounds like you've been playing too much Risk.

The world, and even Harry Reid, would frown, to say the least, on any Chinese attempt to annex four sovereign nations. And any invasion of Kyrgyzstan or Tajikistan, to say nothing of Nepal, would face insurmountable logistical difficulties. Among other things.

It is unfeasible because the Mongolian horse archers would be forced to conquer China yet again, ending any hopes of Chinese expansion, and unleasing hordes of Mongolian warriors upon the world. This would cause all civilization to be destroyed...

Total bull.

China would not attempt such an invasion - were China to invade anywhere, it would be lesser nations that would not cause as much international consternation. First Chinese targets of expansions would be Taiwan first (smack those upstart 'independent' idiots around), then probably on to Vietnam and the rest the region.

That scenario would see China at war with both Russia and India as well as pissing off the rest of the world. Japan and South Korea would weigh in out of fear of being next, the Middle east would join the fray to support their muslim brothers (and because of further Chinese control of oil), and of course the US would not be left out of that one.

It would be China vs just about everyone including its own citizens. It is not a country of homogeneous happy shinny party loyalists - cut off imports of raw materials and the state will collapse. I would go so far as to say a majority of the population in western China would join in on the other side right away.

Russia is not under the control of oil tycoons but quite the opposite - an attack on Russia would see Putin cemented in power as the state locks down into total authoritarianism.

I have no idea where you got this idea, but it is completely divergent from political realities.

Now if you wanted to talk about China invading Taiwan or Vietnam, that is a little more likely (but still not very).

I am going to expand on the scenario to show what would happen to China in this hypothetical war.

This new leader has expansionist aims, and begins with invasions of Mongolia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Nepal, using a series of terrorist attacks in Chinese cities as an excuse. Despite Russian pleas, China launches a bombing raid on a refugee camp outside of Ulaan Bataar, after rockets had been fired on the Chinese positions in the city from that camp.

I have changed the text above to make it slightly more realistic.

Expansion of scenario:

After the breakup of the Russian Federation, China turned their attentions to both a defence in the west from India and a Central Asian Coalition and a full blown invasion of the Republic of China - aka Taiwan. As Chinese bombers pound Taipei into oblivion, the UN Security Council agrees to expel China from the Council and at the same time send in a task force to defend the island. Whilst the Chinese Army are gridlocked in the east, Indian forces manage a breakthrough and begin to march towards Lhasa with the shadow Chinese force in full retreat.
With American backing, South Korean and Japanese forces launch an attack on Shanghai, with intent to destroy the Chinese economy. After a month-long siege, the Chinese army manage to relieve the beleaguered Shanghai salient and draw the US-led forces into a battle outside the city. However, the superior equipment of the American/Korean/Japanese forces beats the weight of numbers and sends the Chinese into a retreat.
By now, anti-government protests have reached fever pitch, and after tremendous pressure from the army, President Junde Xiang agrees to Operation Red Bull. In one massive fell swoop, the Chinese were set to launch massive nuclear strikes on Lhasa, Shanghai and Urumqi (which had fallen to CAC forces), supposedly eliminating all opposition forces. However a US Special Forces battalion had already been deployed into Beijing, and it was this force that carried out a daring raid on the Great Hall of the People. During the Presidential announcement of ORB, the Special Forces (along with 20,000 protestors) stormed the hall and assassinated President Xiang. The US government instantly installed Hsin Ta Fan, leader of the Chinese Democracy Union and staunch capitalist, as the new leader of China.
In the coming months, all Communist resistance was defeated, with the final blow being a defeat at the Second Battle of Beiping. The recently annexed nations were restored, the province of Nei Mongol was restored to Mongolian rule after a referendum, and Tibet and Uighuristan were given independence.

China's leader dies and a new leader takes up power in Beijing. This new leader has expansionist aims, and begins with invasions of Mongolia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Nepal, using staged terrorist attacks in Chinese cities as an excuse.
Is this feasible, or is it just a load of bull?

India

It is unfeasible because the Mongolian horse archers would be forced to conquer China yet again, ending any hopes of Chinese expansion, and unleasing hordes of Mongolian warriors upon the world. This would cause all civilization to be destroyed...

QFT :D:D

China does anything, and they will face the Nightmare Alliance: US technology and intelligence combined with Russian brute force.

Is this feasible, or is it just a load of bull?

It's a load of bull.

When will people stop with these damn "China vs. Russia/US/the world" threads?

The whole thing is based on the utterly unrealistic premise that a new Chinese leader would, without a shred of explanation, completely turn his back on the PRCs long term strategic goals and suddenly attack nations which it currently has peaceable and amicable relations with, without rhyme or reason.

If I remember Chinese history correctly, there has been only one leader that was expansionist beyond what they felt was traditional China. After that leader, the next leader destroyed the greatest fleet before the 20th century and withdrew back to China.

Second, war unites (well usually [sorry GW]). Russia would be totally united and would likely regain it's empire rather than splitting up.

China does anything, and they will face the Nightmare Alliance: US technology and intelligence combined with Russian brute force.

what you said.
anything is possible i guess,but the global reality strongly says not likely,so does my magic 8 ball.

It's a load of bull.

When will people stop with these damn "China vs. Russia/US/the world" threads?

When the actual war starts and they get drafted?

UK, France, Germany, Italy, Russia, Japan and the US don't need an excuse to stop China's progress to superpower status, they will probably dstroy China to stop it happening anyway, if China was stupid enough to do something like this, the above mentioned countries would unite and bomb China's infrastructure to death, stopping China's expansion, and conveniently at the same time also stopping China's rise, and making China a 3rd world country in the middle of a Civil war.

If China used nukes on Russia, Russia would respond in kind.

well there would no longer be 3 billion chinese afterward.

If China used nukes on Russia, Russia would respond in kind.

well there would no longer be 3 billion chinese afterward.

If you are going to make a comment, and least get the figures vaguely somewhere in the vicinity of reality. There are 1.3 billion people in China...not 3 billion.

improbable in fine detail. terror attack, staged, provoked or otherwise, as a justification for ECONOMIC 'anexation' is not unheard of where corporactic incentives dominate. however it is a matter of gain vs obsticals to even consider. as for provoking military political hostilities with anyone one's own size, this is generally, or has been by the u.s. so far, scrupulously avoided.

to immagine any chinese leader to have even less sense and good judgement then what passes for a head of state in the u.s. at this moment, yes, i would definately put that a looong way in the (dark) fantasy catigory.

i don't know what the u.s. interest in nepal is, but i do smell something resembling its hand in events of a very few years ago. and it does have a militant marxist faction. which may, but probably doesn't, represent chinese interest to any great degree.

there's this bussiness with tibet of course, what china calls its t.a.r. but that's a long done deal, though no one but ethnic han are happy with it. indiginous tibetans certainly arn't. but china is griping that like a dragon hording gold.

as for shakaline, which by any rational logic ought to be part of japan. there's no way russia would let china grab it. and i can see where a show down might occur there. but it would be a russian kennidy vs chinese missles if they tried to garison the place. pluse, once again, it's a question of why would they want it. territory isn't the thing anymore, even with large populations. its all about control of resources. and the current vogue in doing that is economic mumblyfiddles, with any political factors in the matter kept as deniable as humanly possible.

at any rate, russia has its butt planted squarely on it, (why, i haven't the foggiest, other then maybe just plain gratuitous stubornness, unless there's some sort of resources there no one i know of knows about or even any likelyhood of their being. a few endangered species of wildlife maybe) and if japan can't get it back from them, i sure don't see china doing so.

(if shakaline is that next island north of japan, geologically contiguous with those it sits on, and i'm not confussling the name with something else)

=^^=
.../\...

China's leader dies and a new leader takes up power in Beijing. This new leader has expansionist aims, and begins with invasions of Mongolia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Nepal, using staged terrorist attacks in Chinese cities as an excuse. Despite Russian pleas,
Kyrgyzstan is a member of the CIS, hence they have a defensive agreement with Russia. In this case, I don't see Russia pleading to China. First, they cut the oil, gas and military tech exports to China. Then, if the Chinese continue, they simply blast away the Chinese troops with waves of Tu-95, Su-25 and Mi-24 protected by Su-27, Su-35 and MiG-31, while the Tu-22M sink the Chinese fleet and Tu-160 raze some key industries in Manchuria.
Anyway, let's assume they make just pleas.


China launches a bombing raid on a refugee camp outside of Ulaan Bataar, claiming that rockets had been fired on the Chinese positions in the city from that camp. After the invaded nations had been assimilated into the new Chinese empire, tensions rise between the two nations. Eventually China, aided by anti-capitalist rebels and North Korean troops, invade the Kamchatka peninsula and Sakhalin, using the excuse that Chinese workers on the islands had been attacked and imprisoned by the Russians. The Russians respond in kind by bombing northern Chinese cities and recapturing the peninsula.
So you think that some Russian will side with China in the case of a Chinese invasion of the Rodina? And that North Korea tries to invade Russia?
China invades Kamchatka and their troops freeze like the Fascist Invaders in the Great Patriotic War; China invades Sakhalin... with what boats? Those that would have been torpedoed by the submarines of the Pacific Fleet? Or those that would have been sunk by the Tu-22Ms' missiles?


China eventually makes good on its threats with the nuking of Vladivostok. The imminent panic in Russia forces the Kremlin to put forward a vote of no confidence in the President.


1.There is no "no confidence" vote in Russia, since the president is elected directly by the citizens.

2.Imminent panic triggers only massive reaction. If Russia gets a city nuked (if the crappy Chinese vectors can, and they cannot, bypass the S-300 and S-400 antimissile defence), China gets all its major cities nuked (and it is impossible to intercept a Topol-M or a Bulava). And the US, Japan and India wouldn't be shedding tears.
So, in few days, good bye China, hello Eastern Asian Glass Desert.

...Is this feasible, or is it just a load of bull?
Ehm... I have to say that this is MOST unlikely.
Russia is a nuclear and military superpower; China isn't.
Russia has own resources; China must import.
Russia has scientists galore; China copies from Russia.
Russia has a strong national identity; China hasn't (Tibet, Central Asia/Islamic Chinese...)

also
Russia is used to get invaded, fight back and win; China is used to get invaded, period.

to immagine any chinese leader to have even less sense and good judgement then what passes for a head of state in the u.s. at this moment, yes, i would definately put that a looong way in the (dark) fantasy catigory.
I thought that so obvious that it didn't even cross my mind, you know. Good point, anyway, good point.



as for shakaline, which by any rational logic ought to be part of japan. there's no way russia would let china grab it.
Ehe, rational logic would have had the japanese surrender and sign a peace treaty with CCCP or Russia... anyway, rational (more geographical, I would say) logic gets pwned by history.


at any rate, russia has its butt planted squarely on it, (why, i haven't the foggiest...)
Cushion area theory (like central Europe), plus good point of control of western-allied Japan and of Northern Pacific (distance between USA and Russia is less than 100 km), plus retaliation for 1905.


(if shakaline is that next island north of japan, geologically contiguous with those it sits on)

Yes, it is.

to immagine any chinese leader to have even less sense and good judgement then what passes for a head of state in the u.s. at this moment, yes, i would definately put that a looong way in the (dark) fantasy catigory.
I thought that so obvious that it didn't even cross my mind, you know. Good point, anyway, good point.



as for shakaline, which by any rational logic ought to be part of japan. there's no way russia would let china grab it.
Ehe, rational logic would have had the japanese surrender and sign a peace treaty with CCCP or Russia... anyway, rational (more geographical, I would say) logic gets pwned by history.


at any rate, russia has its butt planted squarely on it, (why, i haven't the foggiest...)
Cushion area theory (like central Europe), plus good point of control of western-allied Japan and of Northern Pacific (distance between USA and Russia is less than 100 km), plus retaliation for 1905.


(if shakaline is that next island north of japan, geologically contiguous with those it sits on)

Yes, it is.

on to Vietnam

Aw, they got pwned by the Viets back in the '70s, they wouldn't dare to do that.
Vietnamese are the fiercest fighters of the world: in the last century, they pwned the Japanese, then the French, the US-Aussie-NZ-South Korea-Thai-Philippine coalition, then Pol-Pot's Khmer Rouge and China.

No-no-no, better not to invade Vietnam.;)

If I remember Chinese history correctly, there has been only one leader that was expansionist beyond what they felt was traditional China. After that leader, the next leader destroyed the greatest fleet before the 20th century and withdrew back to China.

Second, war unites (well usually [sorry GW]). Russia would be totally united and would likely regain it's empire rather than splitting up.
Their own or from the enemy?

huge snipWhy would China invade Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Mongolia or Nepal? Answer: it wouldn't - even if it has expansionist aims.

If China was going to invade anywhere it would invade Southeast Asia. Why? Because Southeast Asia is rich. The nations you described are mostly mountain, and not much more.

If China was going to invade the stans it probably wouldn't stop at Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The oil and gas rich states of Central Asia are Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

edit: China won't invade anywhere. It's very happy with it's position that makes it considerably amounts of money and affords it large amounts of power.

Whoops, I forgot. The definitive first stop would be Taiwan. Complete control of the Taiwan straights and of the unsinkable aircraft carrier.