NationStates Jolt Archive

I'm curious to hear some opinions on this. We all believe in statistics and chance, I'm sure - the fact that my odds of picking the ace of spades out of an ordinary deck of playing cards are one in fifty-two shouldn't be too difficult to see, for example.

However, the question still remains: do you believe that some people are simply naturally luckier than others?

Do you know someone who, in terms of pure chance, just never seem to lose? And what do you make of it? :)

To quote Ray Charles, "If it wasn't for bad luck, I wouldn't have no luck at all" :)

Seriously, there is no such thing as luck. The universe is random (sorry Einstien).

To quote Ray Charles, "If it wasn't for bad luck, I wouldn't have no luck at all" :)

Seriously, there is no such thing as luck. The universe is random (sorry Einstien).

That's a pretty good quote. :p I've known people who basically "couldn't lose" at certain games, but mathematically, I guess I shouldn't believe in luck. It just seems so strange when someone's on a crazy winning streak sometimes.

I believe in Luck. I am living proof of it. I live in a well developed nation, I own nice things, I have a good computer, and I am free of any genetic abnormalities, save for the fact that I was born without any sign of wisdom teeth. No buds, no root structures, nothing. I am lucky/blessed.

luck is a judgement of past events.

if things have gone your way, you are lucky. if things have not gone your way, you are unlucky.

it has no predictive value for the future.

I am lucky/blessed.
Or a happy victim of circumstance, and circumstance's red-headed, hillbilly cousin, coincidence.

I believe in Luck. I am living proof of it. I live in a well developed nation, I own nice things, I have a good computer, and I am free of any genetic abnormalities, save for the fact that I was born without any sign of wisdom teeth. No buds, no root structures, nothing. I am lucky/blessed.

Here is a Chinese story about "blessings".

Near China's northern borders lived a man well versed in the practices of Taoism. His horse, for no reason at all, got into the territory of the northern tribes. Everyone commiserated with him.

"Perhaps this will soon turn out to be a blessing," said his father.

After a few months, his animal came back, leading a fine horse from the north. Everyone congratulated him.

"Perhaps this will soon turn out to be a cause of misfortune," said his father.

Since he was well-off and kept good horses his son became fond of riding and eventually broke his thigh bone falling from a horse. Everyone commiserated with him.

"Perhaps this will soon turn out to be a blessing," said his father.

One year later, the northern tribes started a big invasion of the border regions. All able-bodied young men took up arms and fought against the invaders, and as a result, around the border nine out of ten men died. This man's son did not join in the fighting because he was crippled and so both the boy and his father survived.


The moral is that you never know what the future holds.

Well, of course I do. After all, Bob Dobbs isn't the Sultan of Slack 'cause he's smart.

Well, of course I do. After all, Bob Dobbs isn't the Sultan of Slack 'cause he's smart.

Ah, good point. :p

Here is a Chinese story about "blessings".

The moral is that you never know what the future holds.

And, that the future is probably going to be depressing. ;)

It's hard to say if I believe in luck or not.

Basic rules of probability make it clear that any instance has a 50-50 chance of happening or not (because the probability of any outcome is 100% divided by the number of outcomes, and there are only two outcomes to any situation; either it is or it isn't). So, no one is more "lucky" than anyone else.

I just seem to land in the "isn't" category a lot. Maybe the people around me are just using loaded dice...

However, I'm half-Irish. So I must believe in luck.

It's all probability and coincidence, and that people have a tendency to selectively report past events. It has no bearing on the future.

To quote Ray Charles, "If it wasn't for bad luck, I wouldn't have no luck at all" :)


and Cream :)

nah, i don't much believe in luck. i should think some are more fortuitous due to the happenchance of events beyond their control, but i'm not so sure about "luck" as its not something i can really observe in action. i don't much believe in 'intuition' much for that matter, either.

but that's one definition of 'lucky'
if i were to say "that guy's lucky because he keeps getting the bingo numbers" then that's one thing. but to say "i am lucky to have been born in this country" is quite another, as statistically speaking it is kinda against the odds to be born in a 1st world country. and the 'lucky' part comes in via a value judgement that being in a 1st world country is a good thing. if you get my point.

Here is a Chinese story about "blessings".



The moral is that you never know what the future holds.

That guy's father reminded my of Chris Titus' "Anti-Dad" bit...

http://youtube.com/watch?v=CAHz85TmIU4

Nö.

Some people are lucky in that random events will come out in their favour more than one would expect, but it's not because they possess some kind of mystic special quality imbued because they were born at the right time or have the right artefact, these things just happen. Keep rolling a die enough and eventually you'll just keep rolling the same number over and over and over. Flip a coin for long enough and you'll get a ridiculously long string of heads.

I think of luck in terms of statistics.

The .01% of people that die because of anaesthesia are unlucky.

Nö.

Is that Polish for "no?" ;)

Some people are lucky in that random events will come out in their favour more than one would expect, but it's not because they possess some kind of mystic special quality imbued because they were born at the right time or have the right artefact, these things just happen. Keep rolling a die enough and eventually you'll just keep rolling the same number over and over and over. Flip a coin for long enough and you'll get a ridiculously long string of heads.

Ah, but on the other hand, we have people like that one guy who has been hit by lightning a half dozen times - when the odds get into billions to one, sometimes luck is the most plausible answer. :p Unless that is, the guy has something odd in his body that attracts electricity.

I call the randomness luck. so I can have "good" luck one minute, then "bad" luck the next.

"Luck is probability taken personally"- Penn Jillette.

that's about the whole story of it. there is no luck, no good luck, no bad luck, you have the same odds of things happening regardless, if you are in a certain situation you have an equal probability of all things happening.

good luck or bad, those are judgment calls after the fact.

Ah, but on the other hand, we have people like that one guy who has been hit by lightning a half dozen times - when the odds get into billions to one, sometimes luck is the most plausible answer. :p Unless that is, the guy has something odd in his body that attracts electricity.

This man has some immeasurable quality about him that warps probability? I doubt it very much. He was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time, a number of times. What happened to him is unlucky in that it's very very unlikely, but it didn't happen because he has "bad luck".

This man has some immeasurable quality about him that warps probability? I doubt it very much. He was simply in the wrong place at the wrong time, a number of times. What happened to him is unlucky in that it's very very unlikely, but it didn't happen because he has "bad luck".

Probably true. It just starts to get a bit hard to conceptualize once you're into the billions-to-one range, not to mention the phenomenon happening to a few people.

Probably true. It just starts to get a bit hard to conceptualize once you're into the billions-to-one range, not to mention the phenomenon happening to a few people.

it could be that he is at a higher risk because of his activity.

for example they say the divorce rate is about 50% in America, but if you have certain other factors (like the ones I have, being married young, having a child before you were married for two years, etc) you are actually at a much higher risk.

When I was chasing storms I was at a much higher risk of dying from a weather related circumstance than most other people I knew, because I put myself in situations that were more dangerous than they did.

it could be that he is at a higher risk because of his activity.

for example they say the divorce rate is about 50% in America, but if you have certain other factors (like the ones I have, being married young, having a child before you were married for two years, etc) you are actually at a much higher risk.

When I was chasing storms I was at a much higher risk of dying from a weather related circumstance than most other people I knew, because I put myself in situations that were more dangerous than they did.

Yeah, it would probably help if I could remember more details about the guy, but it's been a long time since I read about it. I don't recall him being in a particularly at-risk profession or anything, but it could still just be his habits I guess.

Yeah, it would probably help if I could remember more details about the guy, but it's been a long time since I read about it. I don't recall him being in a particularly at-risk profession or anything, but it could still just be his habits I guess.

my dad got struck by lightning twice, but he was an idiot, he fixed solar panels and you would think "hear thunder get off the roof" but he didn't.......he just stayed up there, with those big metal panels like an idiot.

my dad got struck by lightning twice, but he was an idiot, he fixed solar panels and you would think "hear thunder get off the roof" but he didn't.......he just stayed up there, with those big metal panels like an idiot.

Ouch. I've been thrown off my feet by lightning once, and although not dirctly painful, it's not fun. I imagine being hit full-on would really ruin your day.

my dad got struck by lightning twice, but he was an idiot, he fixed solar panels and you would think "hear thunder get off the roof" but he didn't.......he just stayed up there, with those big metal panels like an idiot.

:eek: Did he survive?

There is no such thing as a lucky, or unlucky person.

What there is are people who are prepared to take advantage of the opportunities that come their way, that take risks, that try new things etc. These people will tend to be seen as lucky most of the time, as others don't notice when they trey something that doesn't work. They are only noticed when one of their many attempts pans out in a big way.

'Unlucky' people tend to be those that didn't try, therefor didn't get and who then spend hours and days complaining that the other got and not them.

In short, you make your own luck, but those that appear to be lucky may not be better off for doing so.

I believe that sometimes you can't predict a sequence of events happening to you or others, but I totally reject the idea that some people are more likely to be favored by these type of circunstances.

No such thing as luck. It's all a matter of perspective and selective observation. We note only the bad circumstances--the few circumstances out of, say, hundreds--and start railing about a string of bad luck, or we see someone who is on a winning streak and we rant about their good luck, when it is all a matter of chance and probabilities.

Now, you can use luck as a word colloquially to refer to chance, and I do use it in that manner, but that's the only real luck there is.

As a fine example: in the game I've been playing today--Mafia--I keep screwing up on this one mission. (For those who have played, it's the one at the docks where you're chasing after Sergio Morello, with the snipers in the towers by the huge ship.) Everytime, no matter which way I go about it, I get sniped. But this is not due to bad luck...after all, prior to this I had zipped through all of the previous missions/parts of the story/what have you that I played today, so it's a case of chance, and a combination of my probably sucky skill and the rather large difficulty of this game.

Probably true. It just starts to get a bit hard to conceptualize once you're into the billions-to-one range, not to mention the phenomenon happening to a few people.
Well consider how often lightning actually strikes earth. Consider what he was doing when he was struck, where he lived.
When I was chasing storms I was at a much higher risk of dying from a weather related circumstance than most other people I knew, because I put myself in situations that were more dangerous than they did.

You used to chase storms? Seriously, you must have done absolutely every cool thing it is possible for a person to do. Have you ever tamed lions or fought grues?

It is unwise to mention the Ladys name. It might draw her attention to you.

Is that Polish for "no?" ;)

Nie.

It is unwise to mention the Ladys name. It might draw her attention to you.
Apostrophe!!!!

*dies*

:eek: Did he survive?

I suspect he survived the first time :p

Some people are lucky in that random events will come out in their favour more than one would expect, but it's not because they possess some kind of mystic special quality imbued because they were born at the right time or have the right artefact, these things just happen. Keep rolling a die enough and eventually you'll just keep rolling the same number over and over and over. Flip a coin for long enough and you'll get a ridiculously long string of heads.

QFT. Someone can seem to always come out well without being mystically imbued. That's what luck is.

Ouch. I've been thrown off my feet by lightning once, and although not dirctly painful, it's not fun. I imagine being hit full-on would really ruin your day.
he was hit indirectly the first time, and we aren't really sure about the second time, but his shoes melted to the roof, the paramedics had to cut them off to get him down.
:eek: Did he survive?
yep, both happened before he was 40, he died at 50 in the hospital recovering from a bisected aorta.
You used to chase storms? Seriously, you must have done absolutely every cool thing it is possible for a person to do. Have you ever tamed lions or fought grues?
I have not done every cool thing ever. I still have to travel, and my book needs to get on the best sellers list, and I really want to invent something. If it helps any I have been called an underachiever many times. Apparently I am meant for great things, but all I really end up doing is getting myself into trouble.

No such thing as luck. It's all a matter of perspective and selective observation. We note only the bad circumstances--the few circumstances out of, say, hundreds--and start railing about a string of bad luck, or we see someone who is on a winning streak and we rant about their good luck, when it is all a matter of chance and probabilities.

Indeed. Circumstances that seem insanely unlikely are far more memorable that the run of the mill. Fake mediums and people of that nature use this to their advantage. They say general things and when you leave you're far more likely to remember what they got right.
I have not done every cool thing ever.
It's only a matter of time by the looks of things.
I still have to travel, and my book needs to get on the best sellers list, and I really want to invent something. If it helps any I have been called an underachiever many times. Apparently I am meant for great things, but all I really end up doing is getting myself into trouble.

Underachiever? An ex-stormchasing recovered drug addict with serious health problems who found God, has two kids who could outsmart most people on the internet, homeschools said kids, works 5 jobs, writes a newsletter, wrote a book(I think), who after all this still has time for plentiful amounts of humpy bumby with hubby and did all of that(and proabably more) despite having a(if you don't mind my saying) complete tool of a mother and a string of asshole neighbours is an underachiever? Madness
Madness? THIS IS SMUNKEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

yes to the extent that your attitude can create your own luck.
I don' mean in a weird metaphysical happy fairies dancing round you at midnight kinda way.

I mean that people who have strongly negative thinking invariably have the worst luck. This is because they invariably (usually subconsciously)exacerbate any random bad luck into even worse and, more importantly, dwell solely on their personal bad luck experiences (with each new instance of bad luck 'proof' that they're an unlucky person) and get a skewed view of life.

Humans have the most amazing gift to find patterns and making connections with anything and everything.
A happens and sometime later B happens, so therefore A caused B.
We find it extremely hard to accept randomness. Skinner did a series of experiments with pigeons. Paced in a box they were taught to press a button to get food. Sometimes they were set to appear at a certain time, others after a certain number of presses, others still just random. The pigeons soon learned which box they were in and changed their behaviour accordingly.
When Skinner tried out his pigeon boxes on people, he found when set on random no-one guessed how it was set up and would make all sorts of convoluted explanations. eg. "You have to press fast for x number of times, then slow for y"

All those stories you hear about people who have dreams about plane crashes, miss their flights and then the plane does indeed crash: Statistically on any flight there's 1 or 2 people who miss out. Statistically, most of us have idle thoughts or dreams about "what if the plane crashes?", because flying is such a novel/rare experience for most of us.
Number of plane flights per year * number of people flying * % chance of crashing * % chance of missing your flight * % chance of having a bad thought about plane crashing = a number high enough that the "OMG! I dreamed the plane would crash, missed my flight & the plane crashed!" stories really aren't that amazing.



All that said, some times I've had some incredibly lucky experiences which are hard to explain as just random shit. I once crashed my car by sliding it under a bus at 120km/hr. It took the bonnet and roof off, and the car came to rest with the bus (and part of my roof) - literally - a cm away from my face. I walked out with a scratch on my thumb.
The thing was, the week before I'd taken the car in to get a warrant and was told the struts around the windscreen needed replacing. I got that done - which cost a fortune (well to me at that time as I was only working p/t). The panel shop used solid steel struts cause they had run out of the normal cheap ones.
I can't help but think those steel struts helped stop the car that extra couple of cms short of having the roof embeded into my skull. Of course if I hadn't got the repairs done, I wouldn't be here rambling on about luck.


Slightly off-topic, Karma is a weird thing as well. Again it's easy enough to dismiss it as making connections where there aren't but sometimes...

My current school has decided not to renew my contract (the bastards) so I've been having to do the whole shitty interview thing.
Two weeks ago I had an interview that went really well (much better than the other 5). On the way back to the catch the ferry home I stopped to text a msg to my g/f. I was standing near this beggar who's usually there. He's been in the most awful fire. Most - if not all - his body is badly burned. His face is half-melted and one hand totally burned off. He sits there playing the harmonica. I'd never given him anything as I was always in rush to get to the ferry and couldn't possibly(:rolleyes:) spare 30 seconds to drop a few coins into his hat as I hurry past.
Anyway, this time I did have time and finally did feel guilty enough about all those times I'd walked past. So I went over and gave him some money.
(bare with me, there is a point to this story)
When I get home, I check my emails. Literally (I checked when I sent the txt msg) the same minute I was giving that poor sod some money the principal of the school I'd been interviewed with sent me an email offering me the position (which is the only job offer I've got thus far).
coincidence?

well yes, but it's still kinda cool to think of it as karma

Yes

Yes

By the looks of the poll, many agree with you, yet none have explained their belief yet, I don't think. ;)

QFT. Someone can seem to always come out well without being mystically imbued. That's what luck is.

There's a movie on t.v. right now, coincidentally, which supposes that a person really can be mystically imbued with luck - the Spanish-language film Intacto, with Max Von Sydow (and a bunch of others, but he's the only one I recognize). Interesting consequences to that being the case in this fantasy. :p Anyone else seen that one?

Person A has caring, loving parents. Person B has abusive, neglectful parents. Person A is luckier than person B.

This isn't to say that everything in life will be easy for person A, or that everything in life will be difficult for person B. But to think that you can control everything that happens in your own life, well, it isn't true. And the things that you can't control, like who your parents are, are luck. All a you can do is put yourself in the best position possible, and hope that in the end, your luck will level out.

I'm curious to hear some opinions on this. We all believe in statistics and chance, I'm sure - the fact that my odds of picking the ace of spades out of an ordinary deck of playing cards are one in fifty-two shouldn't be too difficult to see, for example.

However, the question still remains: do you believe that some people are simply naturally luckier than others?

Do you know someone who, in terms of pure chance, just never seem to lose? And what do you make of it? :)

i have been shot and stabbed and yet i am still here..lol...and i have seen my other friends just die by happenstance.
so yuo figure that out out.
life is funny that way,i should have been dead a hundred times,yet i am not.

Ah, but on the other hand, we have people like that one guy who has been hit by lightning a half dozen times - when the odds get into billions to one, sometimes luck is the most plausible answer.

Nah, he's just an outlier. There are always outliers.

He's also probably in the habit of playing golf in bad weather.

Nah, he's just an outlier. There are always outliers.

He's also probably in the habit of playing golf in bad weather.
iirc, he works as a groundskeeper on a golf course in Texas or Florida. Somewhere where there's a helluva lot of lightning.

By the looks of the poll, many agree with you, yet none have explained their belief yet, I don't think. ;)

Just from experience. Some people I know seem to have all the good things happen to them, and some people have lots of bad things. I believe in luck, most people I know believe in luck. Its not a big issue.

I do.

Kiryu-shi brings up *exactly* the example I would've made if she didn't. There are two ways of looking at it:

(1) Person A is luckier than B, so that would've happened no matter what.
(2) There is no luck, so it's equally possible that A could have wound up with B's parents and vice-versa.

There are also things that *seem* like bad events but aren't. Sure, your car's battery may be dead one of these days, causing you to miss a concert/date/game/whatever you want to go to. But if that dead battery wasn't dead, you may very well have started driving there and gotten into a horrific car crash. I feel like the point I'm maing is somewhat muddled, so let me finishb with this statement: I support view 1.

There are also things that *seem* like bad events but aren't. Sure, your car's battery may be dead one of these days, causing you to miss a concert/date/game/whatever you want to go to. But if that dead battery wasn't dead, you may very well have started driving there and gotten into a horrific car crash. I feel like the point I'm maing is somewhat muddled, so let me finishb with this statement: I support view 1.
The thing about dead car battery events is that we only remember them when it coincides with another event.
If you were just wanting to drive to the shop to buy a Mars bar, you probably wouldn't call it bad luck - just a pain.
But when it happens and you miss something important - well, then you remember it forever and put it down to 'bad luck'. (or with your other example, you turn on the TV see there was a horrific car acident on the highway you'd have been travelling and thus you call it 'good luck')

It's much like those people who claim some sort of psychic connection with their friends or family. y'know you call up a friend and it's, "I was just thinking about calling you! wow! I must be psychic!"
However, if you're very close it's highly likely you speak/call/think about one another regularly, if not frequently. So the chances of them thinking about you and then you calling are in fact rather high. You remember the times the two events coincide - and not the hundreds of times they don't. why would you?


I strongly beleive people's attitudes affect their 'luck'. I knew a bloke who was dreadfully unlucky. Couldn't help but feel sorry for him. After I knew a while, it became more and more apparent that nearly all his 'bad luck' was due to himself and his actions.

for eg. He wanted to be a big rig truck driver. So he bought himself a 2nd hand rig. Didn't bother to have it thoroughly tested beforehand. Sure enough, within a couple of months something blew which cost $10k to fix.
Is that really bad luck?
Forking over $100k+ for a vehicle w/o getting it tested first. would you call such a person 'unlucky' - or something a bit more cruel (but also more apt)?

Another time, he took his rig in for a servicing. An apprentice mechanic (who didn't have a truck&trailer licence) took it out for a test drive and managed to flip it.
Mechanics refused to pay for the repairs. Claimed the load had slipped - even though he'd driven it 700km the day previous and had been stopped by the police who checked and certified the load was secure.
So he took them to court.
result?
he lost. repairs cost him $30k.
bad luck?
sure sounds like it, don't it.
well...no.
Thing is, he represented himself in court while they hired a good lawyer. And believe me, he's not a particularly good public speaker.
When you're dealing with $30k, you DO NOT represent yourself. And you certainly do not call it 'bad luck' when you lose.

Seeing how he handled his affairs, it really looked like he was subconciously wanting himself to fail, just so others would feel sorry for him. That's not being 'unlucky', that's just being sad and pathetic.