NationStates Jolt Archive

Zimbabwe 'collapse in six months'
Zimbabwe will collapse within six months, possibly leading to a state of emergency, says a leaked briefing report for aid workers in the country.

Rampant inflation will mean shops and services can no longer function and people would resort to barter, it said.

"The memorandum is talking about a situation where there is no functioning government or a total breakdown," an unnamed aid worker told the UK Times.

Zimbabwe's inflation is already 3,714% - the highest rate in the world.

Business quotes were now valid for just one day or even one hour, said the report written by consultants and sent to workers at the United Nations and other aid agencies.

Several organisations contacted by the BBC News website denied commissioning the report.

Some firms were already partly paying their workers in food, rather than money, it said.

ZIMBABWE CRISIS
Inflation: 3,714%
Unemployment: 80%
4m need food aid
Life expectancy: 37 (men), 34 (women)


Mobiles to beat fuel queues

Shops were doubling their prices twice a month, so they could purchase replacement goods.

If this continues, "doubling the current inflation for each of the seven remaining months of 2007 gives 512,000% thus the economic collapse is expected before the end of 2007," said the report, according to the AP news agency.

The security forces who have remained loyal to President Robert Mugabe were also feeling the effects.

The report said an ordinary police officer earned less than aid workers paid their domestic staff.

It said power and water suppliers were already near collapse. Electricity was last month rationed to just four hours a day to save power for farmers.

Just one adult in five is believed to have a regular job.

Some 4m Zimbabweans - a third of the population - will need food aid this year, according to the UN World Food Programme.

Mr Mugabe denies responsibility for Zimbabwe's economic problems, blaming a western plot to bring down his government because of his policy of seizing white-owned land.

Source (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6751671.stm)

While I would love nothing more than to see the Mugabe regime collapse, I would not like to see the whole of Zimbabwean society go down with it. If only Morgan Tsvangirai were president. :(

Maybe Mugabe can sell some of his honorary PhDs on eBay and bring in a few dollars that might go toward food aid. :p

I think the Germans could help...

Well, one of his honorary degrees was revoked recently. :)

I think the Germans could help...

... What?

My commiserations to those unfortunate enough to have to live under this tyrant, but I cannot say this saddens me. Should this realize Mugabe will finally receive his just desert. Too bad he will not be the one to pay the harshest price for his catastrophic idiocy.

I think the Germans could help...

Eh?

See, personally, I don't think it matters. They'll collapse, Mugabe goes, some new guy who's just as bad comes in, circle of life continues.

See, personally, I don't think it matters. They'll collapse, Mugabe goes, some new guy who's just as bad comes in, circle of life continues.
There are individuals in the country interested in reforming it. With this imbecile out of the way they may gain some leverage.

See, personally, I don't think it matters. They'll collapse, Mugabe goes, some new guy who's just as bad comes in, circle of life continues.

You never can tell, someone better might come along. It never hurts to keep a positive outlook. :)

There are individuals in the country interested in reforming it. With this imbecile out of the way they may gain some leverage.

Unless his toadies take over.

You never can tell, someone better might come along. It never hurts to keep a positive outlook. :)

There is someone better (Tsvangirai), the legitimate president of Zimbabwe. Were a genuinely free, fair, and open election held, Tsvangirai would win by a landslide.

Eh?

Superinflation in Post-WW1 Germany.

I was hoping someone got it, but nevermind

Superinflation in Post-WW1 Germany.

I was hoping someone got it, but nevermind

I'm getting tired of this warpage already... again

Superinflation in Post-WW1 Germany.

I was hoping someone got it, but nevermind

Oh yeah, that worked out REAL fucking well.

There is someone better (Tsvangirai), the legitimate president of Zimbabwe. Were a genuinely free, fair, and open election held, Tsvangirai would win by a landslide.

Maybe he can run again sometime down the road? Might be a positive side-effect at least.

Unless his toadies take over.
Do you really think so? A collapse of this magnitude will discredit him and his associates for good. Perhaps they will be able to seize power - but they will have a hard time ruling over the population.

Maybe he can run again sometime down the road? Might be a positive side-effect at least.

He has run before and likely will do so again. The problem is, "democracy" in Zimbabwe is a farce. Calling their "elections" fraudulent would be a gross understatement.

Oh yeah, that worked out REAL fucking well.

Yes. Elect Hitler Jr. That's exactly what I was implying

[/sarcasm]

Do you really think so? A collapse of this magnitude will discredit him and his associates for good. Perhaps they will be able to seize power - but they will have a hard time ruling over the population.

They can easily continue to rule as Mugabe has ruled for over two decades: By the barrel of a gun. And if worse comes to worst, they can always turn to their friends in Beijing for help.

More along the lines of what i was thinking (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Rentenmark)

From what I have heard, reform will have to come from Mugabe's own party.

From what I have heard, reform will have to come from Mugabe's own party.

The problem is, the party of Robert Mugabe is the Cult of Personality of Robert Mugabe. It's basically been designed around the one man, with no thought of who or how to supercede him afterwards.

Think the USSR when Stalin died. People may have secretly been cheering, but the Soviet Union was effectively leaderless for a year until Khruschev had solidified his power base. At that point the USSR was dynamic, powerful, and effective; it could absorb the damage. Zimbabwe cannot.

The problem is, the party of Robert Mugabe is the Cult of Personality of Robert Mugabe. It's basically been designed around the one man, with no thought of who or how to supercede him afterwards.

Think the USSR when Stalin died. People may have secretly been cheering, but the Soviet Union was effectively leaderless for a year until Khruschev had solidified his power base. At that point the USSR was dynamic, powerful, and effective; it could absorb the damage. Zimbabwe cannot.

Well I think reform from within the party is the only way to go, I mean short of invasion we know Mugabe won't give up power, so the best thing would be to get Mugabe to go for a democratic socialism and stop confiscating property. Imagine Zimbabwe as bad as it is now, it would be ten times worst if a Yeltsin got into power, if were staying with the USSR parallels.

Ho hum. I wonder what the effect of evicting white farmers has been on the economy....

...as I read this topic, my mind keeps saying "Apartheid". Sure, there are some differences here, but...

Hopefully someone will shoot Mugabe during the confusion. Failing that, lock him in some dingy dungeon for the rest of his days.

Hopefully someone will shoot Mugabe during the confusion.

Unfortunately that would make things much worst, think Great Purge II.

How dare you all criticize such a great leader - obviously Zimbabwe would be a utopian paradise with all of his blame everything on the white man... err... wonderful reforms. It is only the dastardly plot from foreign white men trying to destroy the black hero that is keeping Zimbabwe from being the paradise it should be since they slaughtered so many white farmers.

I don't understand how the retard managed to screw up the country so much.
And I don't understand why he is being retarded and playing the blame game rather than doing anything about the situation.

Personally, I think that the UN should organise a rescue operation for the whole population of Zimbabwe in the various neighbouring countries so that he can see exactly how much people enjoy living in his "paradise".

Without people, the government will fall and people will be able to return.

SNIP

on the plus side the wheelbarrow industry is booming :D

And I don't understand why he is being retarded and playing the blame game rather than doing anything about the situation.

Dictators never admit their own failings (while in power, that is).

Ho hum. I wonder what the effect of evicting white farmers has been on the economy....

That is an example of Mugabe's stupidity/greed, not the entire cause. Personally it wouldn't have mattered if he had appropriated those lands if he had taken the time to set up education systems to utilise those lands. That, as well as the repression of the populace which led to reduced trade and investment gives a 'you reap what you sow' situation.

Pfft. Zimbabwe is basically collapsed already. Don't know what else you would call something like 3500% inflation.

Meh. Whatever you can say about Rhodesia it had a functioning economy and wasn't the f***ton place Zimbabwe is now. Of course comparing bad with worse is not ideal either.

Of course it shows that practicing backwards racism like Mugabe in evicting many whites from Zimbabwe by appropriating their farms, condoning a terror campaign against white farmers to support their fleeing and leaving their land behind (people who murder white farmers are practically never caught and almost always freed of charges when they are caught, sometimes even when they are obviously guilty of massacreing a whole family).
Now because the white people were the backbone of Zimbabwe's economy (I am not saying that Zimbabwe couldn't survive economically without white people, present or ruling it, far from it) by chasing them away and replacing them with people who have little clue of how to run a nation we get the present situation.

We see in South Africa. Where white people in the end were just integrated as another tribe among many, the nation is functioning reasonably well even though it no longer has an apartheid government but a democratic one. There are still massacres of white farmers in isolated farms being lynched to death by black nationalist/extremist but this tends to be the minority. However south Africa is no heaven either, it has one of the highest crime rates in the world. But compared to other nations ala Zimbabwe they are doing amazingly well, in part because they decided to not treat white people as a problem to be eviscerated but as part of the solution for a new nation.
Another interesting phenomena about South Africa is that demographically it is the only African nation where white people are increasing their presence and numbers, so with this becoming a larger and larger minority. This is due a lot to a high birthrate and immigration (from former Rhodesia, Zambia and other African nations where white people face reprocussions due to their skin color). Also due to the land availability, economy and cheap housing/life compared to europe many europeans/australians/ and recently more and more americans are relocating to South Africa.
This shows a working South African nation that has overcome hate except for fringe lunes on both black and white sides (but that is prevalent in every nation, no nation is free of racists).

Another interesting phenomena about South Africa is that demographically it is the only African nation where white people are increasing their presence and numbers, so with this becoming a larger and larger minority.
I wasn't aware of this - do you maybe have any sources on it?

I wasn't aware of this - do you maybe have any sources on it?


I just went back to check it. It seems I was slightly off. The actual population of white South African citizens decreased in the last years due to emigration. Which in part is due to events like in 1994-2006 over 1500 white families being brutally murderred on their farms and the government unwilling to follow their murders with too much scrutiny in fear of awakening new race tensions or plain incompetence.

Also the confusion was in part because japanese, taiwan and korean immigrants were given the status as "honorary whites" and so are counted as white people. Meaning that it gets a bit confusing.

the white populations of East Rand, Johannesburg and Pretoria grew between 1996 and 2001. East Rand's white population expanded by 31,567 or 7%, with Pretoria's white population also increasing by 7% with 3,295 more white residents. In Johannesburg the white population increased by 22,982, or 4.7%.


Also since roughly 2 million white South African citizens live abroad who retain their citizenship they are in theory by number increasing. However inside South Africa itself their number slightly decreased, even though as a people their number increased.
This means if all the expatriate South African citizens would return to South Africa they would actually be a larger minority then they were before. However since they are emigrating their number is now around a steady 10% instead of the historical 13/4% of the population.
However as read below it is assumed the white population of South Africa is undercounted due to them isolating themselves in gated communities (due to their vulnerability when alone, see the 1500 killed farmer families killed from 1994 to now).



White Population by Country

* South Africa: 4,365,300 (as of July 2006)
* Namibia: 120,000
* Zambia: 120,000
* Angola: 110,000
* Zimbabwe: 90,000
* Tanzania: 35,000
* Botswana: 30,000
* Kenya: 25,000
* Gabon: 20,000
* Mozambique: 10,000
* Equatorial Guinea: 1,000
* Other African nations: 20,000

Total: Approximately 5,800,000

Note on South Africa: Many white people live in tight private, gated neighborhoods, or farms, and did not receive or return a census form. So the white South African population may be undercounted. At this same time a force of 100,000 temporary employees tracked down nearly every legal black resident, although it is believed 3 to 5 million illegal or unregistered black people are also in the country. A more accurate estimate may be that 12% of South Africa's population is white. In addition, it is estimated that between 1 and 2 million white South Africans live abroad and so the total number could be closer to 6 million, if one were to count to count the global and home White South African community.

The white population of Zimbabwe was much higher in the 1960s (when the country was known as Rhodesia), when it was 270 000 at its highest. After the introduction of majority rule in 1980 many white people left the country.

Yes, I thought that was a bit odd. Thanks for the data though. I doubt I'll be returning there any time soon.

The rebirth of Rhodesia?

While I feel terrible for the people, I say, that the government is getting exactly what it deserves; a nation that has totally failed because it has failed to listen and provide for its people. Those who are able to provide should officially cut ties while funding underground initiatives to aid the people but hurt the government.

If the nation can truly fall maybe it can serve as an example to other nations heading down the same path.

Source (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6751671.stm)

While I would love nothing more than to see the Mugabe regime collapse, I would not like to see the whole of Zimbabwean society go down with it. If only Morgan Tsvangirai were president. :(

The sad part is that country used to be a bread basket for Africa. Then they kicked all the farmers off their land because they were the wrong color. How sad that the common people are the ones to suffer. :(

ISNIP...
Personally, I think that the UN should organise a rescue operation for the whole population of Zimbabwe in the various neighbouring countries so that he can see exactly how much people enjoy living in his "paradise".

The UN can't even wipe it's own ass in the dark without a flashlight and even then they fail 99.9% of the time. :(