NationStates Jolt Archive

My estimate is that there is ~80% chances of war between these 2 sides..

My question is what should the US occupation force do.. (or shouldn't do) if they bring it.

My estimate is that there is ~80% chances of war between these 2 sides.
I demand to see a mathematical derivation! ><;

Not that I'm terribly interested, but I'd like to see where you get that figure from, being a member of the Campaign for Real Probability* and all.


* An offshoot program of the Campaign for Real Time

I don't know! Aaahhh!

My estimate is that there is ~80% chances of war between these 2 sides..


War?...On Earth?...You must be joking...humans are a civilized race, and would never start a war...

Can't really see it myself. Not unless Turkey wants to forget about EU membership.

War?...On Earth?...You must be joking...humans are a civilized race, and would never start a war...LOL..
nice

Did OcceanDrive become Deep Thought or some kind of mathematical genius overnight?

I demand to see your paperwork, or you don't get any score on your Conflict Prediction 101 coursework.

..OcceanDrive ...

I demand to see your ... I demand to see...I estimate your combined chances for success @ ~0.0001%
:D :D ;) :D

I don't know! Aaahhh!Mr President.. sir.. is that you?

My estimate is that there is ~80% chances of war between these 2 sides..

My question is what should the US occupation force do.. (or shouldn't do) if they bring it.

The U.S. should stand back and watch. I think we have a good relationship with the Kurds and we probably want to keep it. We have an OK relationship with the Turks and probably want to keep that as well. I think we should play Switzerland and sit this one out if it happens.

The U.S. should stand back and watch. I think we have a good relationship with the Kurds and we probably want to keep it. We have an OK relationship with the Turks and probably want to keep that as well. I think we should play Switzerland and sit this one out if it happens.

I agree...it won't be an easy position to maintain, but it's less likely to screw things up worse in the region than if we chose a side.

Here is more on the situation from RFE and google.

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/2006/07/04c77744-2f65-4989-b6de-d00564fd5db8.html

Turkey has tried on several occasions in recent months to pressure the U.S. and Iraqi governments to take action against the PKK. The latest attempt appears to be based on an assumption that the U.S. position regarding cross-border operations has changed.

A "strategic vision" document signed by U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul in Washington on July 5 stressed the United States' continued commitment to eradicating the PKK, which it considers a terrorist organization.

"We will work very actively with Turkey and also with the new Iraqi government to deal with this problem because, as I have said before and as I said when I was in Turkey, no one wants the PKK to be able to operate, to carry out terrorist attacks against Turkey anywhere, but most especially from northern Iraq," Rice told reporters after their meeting. However, it appears Rice meant diplomatically, not militarily.

The United States maintains that any Turkish military operation could destabilize Iraqi Kurdistan. U.S. Ambassador to Ankara Ross Wilson told Turkey's NTV television on July 17 that the United States would oppose any unilateral action on Turkey's part.

http://www.google.com/search?q=Turkey+incursion+Iraq&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a

Looks like the U.S. is working on a diplomatic solution at the present time.

I don't think there'd be an all-out war. Turkey has launched cross-border raids against the Kurds for years, and I've doubt they stopped entirely since Hussein's fall. Besides, I'm sure that a regional conflict would not help Turkey with the EU, so a war would run counter to their interests.

I don't think there'd be an all-out war.since the Kurds do not have the same weaponry.. Its going to be asymmetrical War.
if my estimates are on the money.

since the Kurds do not have the same weaponry.. Its going to be asymmetrical War.
if my estimates are on the money.

No. But hey, what does weaponry matter these days? The US has the most sophisticated military on the planet, and they're having trouble fighting 20,000 guerillas with just AK-47s and fanaticism. And that part of Iraq doesn't have the mountains and trees that Kurdistan does.

No. But hey, what does weaponry matter these days? The US has the most sophisticated military on the planet, and they're having trouble fighting 20,000 guerillas with just AK-47s and fanaticism. I am not saying the Turks will win.
I am just saying "it cannot be an old style war.. it has to be asymmetric"

No. But hey, what does weaponry matter these days? The US has the most sophisticated military on the planet, and they're having trouble fighting 20,000 guerillas with just AK-47s and fanaticism. And that part of Iraq doesn't have the mountains and trees that Kurdistan does.

And we haven't found Osama who is hiding in the mountains and trees in Afghanistan yet. :(

so Turkey is going to illegally occupy the northern part of another country now?

course now its the Kurds who are calling for a separate state to protect themselves from "teh ebil Self-determination"

My estimate is that there is ~80% chances of war between these 2 sides..

My question is what should the US occupation force do.. (or shouldn't do) if they bring it.

I believe you are in error. My calculations show that the chances are no higher than 72.94%.

And we haven't found Osama who is hiding in the mountains and trees in Afghanistan yet. :(

I bet he's not there. He's probably in a Georgetown Rowhouse, and had extensive plastic surgery while converting to Judaism.

War?...On Earth?...You must be joking...humans are a civilized race, and would never start a war...

Must...sig...but...running...out of.....sig space....NOOO!!


EDIT: YES! I DID IT!!

And we haven't found Osama who is hiding in the mountains and trees in Afghanistan yet. :(

You know where he is?....Damnit! Where are you hiding him?...tell me, or I'll play Celine Dion on a 3 hour loop, and play pong...by myself!

Must...sig...but...running...out of.....sig space....NOOO!!


EDIT: YES! I DID IT!!

Um...thats copyrighted $3.50 per sig....you owe me...pay up or I break your legos...

My estimate is that there is ~80% chances of war between these 2 sides..

My question is what should the US occupation force do.. (or shouldn't do) if they bring it.

Where do you get that % from? They might talk about it but they will never put a large number of troops in Iraq. They aren't idiots. Nobody likes it when their country is bombed to hell.

Osama is in the Muslim province of Xinjiang, China - no one says so because it's too sensitive an issue but that's where he is. No chance in hell the Americans will even mount a super-secret, parachute-by-night, infra-red glasses operation in China.

Safe as houses right on the Afghani/Pakistani borders.

I have no means of backing this up whatsoever, no sources, no military experience, no nothing - so don't ask.

As long as you don't tell.

And we haven't found Osama who is hiding in the mountains and trees in Afghanistan yet. :(

Osama is in the Muslim province of Xinjiang, China - no one says so because it's too sensitive an issue but that's where he is. No chance in hell the Americans will even mount a super-secret, parachute-by-night, infra-red glasses operation in China.

Safe as houses right on the Afghani/Pakistani borders.

I have no means of backing this up whatsoever, no sources, no military experience, no nothing - so don't ask.

EDIT: Oh, and no, I don't see Turkey invading any Kurdish territory soon - when the M.E. descends into mass civil war perhaps, but not now.

I'd put $50 on the Turks. Nothing against the Kurds, but the Turks have the advantage in many ways. :p

As long as you don't tell.

No light: so late! and dark and chill the night!
Oh let us in, that we may find the light!
Too late, too late: ye cannot enter now.

No. But hey, what does weaponry matter these days? The US has the most sophisticated military on the planet, and they're having trouble fighting 20,000 guerillas with just AK-47s and fanaticism. And that part of Iraq doesn't have the mountains and trees that Kurdistan does.
Where as the Kurds have A ton of Artillery to hide in those mountains.

Well the Turks do have an actually formidable army. That's the bid thing over there. In America going to the military is about going to conflicts around the world and mostly Iraq. In Turkey its about going to the East and dealing with the Kurds. (distant cousin-sort-of of mine is a captain in the Turkish Army).

In my oppinion what chance does the PKK stand against the Turks? The Turkish Army iirc is the largest in Europe, has the highest population, and used to be the Orroman Empire.

Don't worry I'm not Turkish :p but I'm certain Turkey will remain intact after all this.

Turkey will not wage war because they do not want to lose any chance of EU membership. It is too important for them to risk on something like this.

Where do you get that % from? They might talk about it but they will never put a large number of troops in Iraq. They aren't idiots. Nobody likes it when their country is bombed to hell.Are you assuming "someone" is going to bomb Turkey to hell.. If they invade Iraq?

The U.S. should stand back and watch. I think we have a good relationship with the Kurds and we probably want to keep it. We have an OK relationship with the Turks and probably want to keep that as well. I think we should play Switzerland and sit this one out if it happens.

Sitting it out and watching will not leave everyone happy - you cannot simply try to walk away!

Turkey conducting a large-scale incursion would leave the US in an untenable position. We cannot allow Turkey to mess up the one part of Iraq that is actually doing well and we cannot ignore a neighbor of Iraq moving in large numbers of troops. We cannot just ignore a neighboring state conducting significant operations in such a volatile place as Iraq.

Turkey can certainly find justification to make it 'necessary for self-defense', but allowing them to get away with that will (not falling prey to a slippery slope argument - it is has already been an issue) open the door to justification for Iran and Syria to send in troops for 'self-defense' because they both have their own 'Kurdish problem'.

Look at it like Kosovo - the US had given some support to the KLA (because Serbia was in the Russian sphere of influence), so when push finally came to shove and things got nasty we had to start the propaganda machine to paint the Serbs as evil and the Albanians as innocent victims. The KLA was being quite brutal in fighting the Serbs (which provoked the Serbs to act out of desperation). Were Serbs closer to the US instead of Russia, the US would probably have helped the Serbs quell a very bloody insurrection.

It would be a foregone conclusion that we would back Turkey but right now we are supporting Iraq and the Kurds (as they are our only reasonable area in Iraq) and Turkey has ever worsening relations. This is why you let an ally invade your neighbor through your territory - they may be full of shit and embarking on a folly, but you want that goodwill when it is time for them to pick sides (or at least look the other way when you meddle in what could make a bad position worse for them).

Right now, we can safely ignore the little skirmishes going on, but soon it will get to the point where Turkey gets frustrated and lashes out. When that happens, does the US support a longtime ally (though they are unnatural allies who were needed for the cold war so had to be friendly but not so much any more) or newer friends (who are exceedingly important to keep together what is the most significant focus of foreign policy in 30 years and will be the biggest issue for the foreseeable future).

Tough call - I know I wouldnt want to risk forcing the US to make it.

actually... come to think of it... a Turkish invasion could be exactly what is needed to bring Iraq under control. It is a time honored tradition to unite a very disparate people - find a common enemy. Iran doesn't work because, though they may be meddling to some degree, they have the support of the Shia. Fighting off a Turkish invasion could be exactly what is needed to pull the secular bonds of nationalism to bring the country together and end the insurgency. Either that or just blame everything on the Jews - thats always been a favorite (unfortunately that would really keep the US a target as the tool of zionists to occupy Iraq - so not so useful at the moment).

Unfortunately, this cannot take place while the US is there...
The timing would be tricky but perhaps the Iraqi government could ask the US to leave (which shows we are not colonizing - a justifiable fear given their history and the stupidity of uttering such phrases as coming into Baghdad 'not as conquerers, but as liberators' just like they heard before), which earns some points in diplomacy as the US complies; accept the unfortunate losses for a bit as the struggle for power steps up; Turkey invades and brings the country together as it rallies together (and thus nationalism is reborn to hopefully trump sectarian divisions); Turkey is quickly smacked down a bit and walks away having caused enough trouble (and some damage to the PKK) for UN peacekeepers to step in and hopefully secure the border and stop the PKK from having a secure base.

Everyone gets something - Turkey gets to strut about not taking shit from the Kurds, the US gets some props for leaving when asked, the UN steps in and take some responsibility for stability (which eases international tensions), Iraqis hopefully get a more stable country without a civil war. The Kurds are not big winners here, but it could be a springboard for the international campaign for greater recognition eventually leading to a greater Kurdistan.

Of course the risk is in who invades first - Turkey or Iran. If Iran jumps the gun a bit, we could all be in for some trouble.

Are you assuming "someone" is going to bomb Turkey to hell.. If they invade Iraq?

Yes.

Turkey will not wage war because they do not want to lose any chance of EU membership. It is too important for them to risk on something like this.

they didn't seem to care when they went to war with a NATO ally in the cold war, course I have my doubts that this would affect Turkeys position with the E.U at all

Yes.

well Israel seems to pull it off allot...

Yes.US?

US?

I'd presume Turkish Kurds might do that myself

I'd presume Turkish Kurds might do that myselfYou are a Turkish Kurd ?
getouttahere :D

You are a Turkish Kurd ?

no I am not a T-urd :p

US?

Yes.

Mr President.. sir.. is that you?

Kurds and whey. Heh-heh-heh heh.
Turks and gravy. Heh-heh-heh heh.

In my oppinion what chance does the PKK stand against the Turks? The Turkish Army iirc is the largest in Europe, has the highest population, and used to be the Orroman Empire.

PKK is a fairly effective terrorist organisation so it can be a particularly annoying thorn in the kurdish areas.

Don't worry I'm not Turkish :p but I'm certain Turkey will remain intact after all this.

The most Turkey could lose is about 25-30% of their population. All major international trading ports (air and sea), most of the industry (including the important military R&D) would remain in Turkey.

Not too sure about agricultural industry though...