Farmina
03-06-2007, 04:48
The polls for the Australian government are bad, although not disastrous as some suggest. As noted on the ABC today, the Irish government was just re-elected in a similar situation with similar poll numbers.
None the less, the beads of sweat of are growing on the foreheads of Liberal MPs as they fear another long stretch in opposition, with the party facing being locked out of power all over the country. Such a situation would be unprecedented and make the Australian Labor Party very hard to dislodge. There is growing belief the perfect chance to change Prime Minister has passed.
Last year liberal Treasurer Peter Costello and the conservative Prime Minister John Howard jostled and strut in a brief leadership ‘spill’. Costello backed down when the party room clearly wasn’t turning. The party room didn’t turn because opinion polls showed John Howard enjoying unprecedented support for a Prime Minister.
A year later and the strong polls are a distant memory. The preferred party polls are bad for the government (although showing signs of turning), the preferred Prime Minister polls are worse. John Howard’s support has been carved in half; from unprecedented popularity to unprecedented unpopularity within a year.
Now the Liberal party room is wondering if they should have throw Australia’s second longest serving Prime Minister overboard. Others are wondering if it’s not too late.
Howard’s strongest supporters are convinced he can and will win. More skeptical conservatives are talking about change, along with the Costello-backers.
If the Liberals are to swap leaders; the next question is when? August is often the suggested month. With the polls starting to turn, this gives time for a more careful analysis of where the polls are going. August also gives a new PM time to establish a new way forward. MP Wilson Tuckey noted (accurately) that the Liberal Party can in practice change until the very last moment. The last moment switch isn’t possible as the Costello alternative will require some selling.
Prime Minister Costello? This seems to be the Liberal’s only real choice other than Howard. His main ‘problem’ is the problem of all treasurers who become PMs; they aren’t liked until after the switch. Becoming PM does wonders for your image.
What do we know about Costello?
He’s far softer on social issues than the party conservatives, like Howard & Abbot.
He is perceived as a safe pair of hands for the economy. This is always the key for a Prime Ministerial aspirant.
IR is forming as a major issue; a field Costello was involved in before his election to Parliament. His IR work made him a minor celebrity, which led to him co-establishing the IR reform institute: the HR Nicholls society. (He has since disassociated himself HRN.)
The environment is another big issue. He is not an environment skeptic and was talking about carbon trading long before Howard or the Labor Party.
He is a ‘true believer’ in education, often seen as a weakness of Howard. His massive education reforms in the latest budget make him well positioned to exploit education as an issue. (I wondered at budget time if the budget was a leadership springboard).
He is a firm believer in foreign aid, which is perceived as under funded by the government.
Costello is a republican.
He is not connected with most of the mud that has stuck to Howard.
He isn’t seen as a Bushite. In fact he has frequently attacked “Bush-onomics”.
Costello has established a personality cult; partly based on his brilliant comic timing and sense of humour.
Costello is a former ALP man, with some leftist tendencies, allowing the Liberals to shuffle left and hit the Labor party from a new position.
Potential Deputies: Nelson, Turnbull, Bishop, Abbot
My guess is Nelson (also formerly ALP), who has similar political alignments to Costello. Julie Bishop wins second place in the deputy race. Costello doesn’t seem to have a great relationship with the millionaire or the mad-monk, which makes them less likely.
So as the Liberal MPs bite their fingernails, they face a choice. Do they continue on a conservative path that people seem to becoming increasingly apathetic towards; or do they choose a new path and throw the Prime Minister overboard?
None the less, the beads of sweat of are growing on the foreheads of Liberal MPs as they fear another long stretch in opposition, with the party facing being locked out of power all over the country. Such a situation would be unprecedented and make the Australian Labor Party very hard to dislodge. There is growing belief the perfect chance to change Prime Minister has passed.
Last year liberal Treasurer Peter Costello and the conservative Prime Minister John Howard jostled and strut in a brief leadership ‘spill’. Costello backed down when the party room clearly wasn’t turning. The party room didn’t turn because opinion polls showed John Howard enjoying unprecedented support for a Prime Minister.
A year later and the strong polls are a distant memory. The preferred party polls are bad for the government (although showing signs of turning), the preferred Prime Minister polls are worse. John Howard’s support has been carved in half; from unprecedented popularity to unprecedented unpopularity within a year.
Now the Liberal party room is wondering if they should have throw Australia’s second longest serving Prime Minister overboard. Others are wondering if it’s not too late.
Howard’s strongest supporters are convinced he can and will win. More skeptical conservatives are talking about change, along with the Costello-backers.
If the Liberals are to swap leaders; the next question is when? August is often the suggested month. With the polls starting to turn, this gives time for a more careful analysis of where the polls are going. August also gives a new PM time to establish a new way forward. MP Wilson Tuckey noted (accurately) that the Liberal Party can in practice change until the very last moment. The last moment switch isn’t possible as the Costello alternative will require some selling.
Prime Minister Costello? This seems to be the Liberal’s only real choice other than Howard. His main ‘problem’ is the problem of all treasurers who become PMs; they aren’t liked until after the switch. Becoming PM does wonders for your image.
What do we know about Costello?
He’s far softer on social issues than the party conservatives, like Howard & Abbot.
He is perceived as a safe pair of hands for the economy. This is always the key for a Prime Ministerial aspirant.
IR is forming as a major issue; a field Costello was involved in before his election to Parliament. His IR work made him a minor celebrity, which led to him co-establishing the IR reform institute: the HR Nicholls society. (He has since disassociated himself HRN.)
The environment is another big issue. He is not an environment skeptic and was talking about carbon trading long before Howard or the Labor Party.
He is a ‘true believer’ in education, often seen as a weakness of Howard. His massive education reforms in the latest budget make him well positioned to exploit education as an issue. (I wondered at budget time if the budget was a leadership springboard).
He is a firm believer in foreign aid, which is perceived as under funded by the government.
Costello is a republican.
He is not connected with most of the mud that has stuck to Howard.
He isn’t seen as a Bushite. In fact he has frequently attacked “Bush-onomics”.
Costello has established a personality cult; partly based on his brilliant comic timing and sense of humour.
Costello is a former ALP man, with some leftist tendencies, allowing the Liberals to shuffle left and hit the Labor party from a new position.
Potential Deputies: Nelson, Turnbull, Bishop, Abbot
My guess is Nelson (also formerly ALP), who has similar political alignments to Costello. Julie Bishop wins second place in the deputy race. Costello doesn’t seem to have a great relationship with the millionaire or the mad-monk, which makes them less likely.
So as the Liberal MPs bite their fingernails, they face a choice. Do they continue on a conservative path that people seem to becoming increasingly apathetic towards; or do they choose a new path and throw the Prime Minister overboard?