NationStates Jolt Archive

I have a good friend of mine that writes movie scripts. He is currently in negotiations to convert a movie script into a three book series. In his third book he was asking me for some ideas and suggestions. The dilemma that he is facing is finding a plausible scenario for a war between China and Russia. The time frame that is being looked at is 2025 to fit his story correctly. Apparently one of the Nostradamus predictions is a war between China and Russia. This is part of his story and why that time is chosen as the date for the conflict.
My scenario that I gave him is that China hits an economic downturn due to Russian economic expansion in the Russian Far East. I suggested that the tunnel linking N America and Siberia had been completed for a couple of years. Trade had grown exponentially with Russia, Central Asian and European nations with the US, Canada and Mexico. China is showing the begining signs of an major economic slowdown due to trade being shifted to these other nations. China strikes out into Russian Far East to sever the trade link under the guise to "claim" ancestral Chinese lands taken by the Russians.
Basically what do think about my suggestion and if you have any alternative ideas I am open to anything.

China becomes a major superpower and feels like invading Russia :p

Seriously, how about a war in Korea between the North and the South. China and Russia both decide to peacekeep in the area but China then annexes North Korea for territorial gain, using the idea that it is restoring order to hide its true intentions. Russia feels this is unfair and demands that the territory be Russian, mainly because it was going to attempot nthe same thing.. Both go to war to capture the whole of Korea and come into conflict over other sections of central asia such as Mongolia.

Hmm I would imagine a similar scenero to Season 6 of 24 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/24_(season_6)) where the Chinese would cause a situation by stealing Russian technology and causing WW3.

China strikes out into Russian Far East to sever the trade link under the guise to "claim" ancestral Chinese lands taken by the Russians.
Basically what do think about my suggestion and if you have any alternative ideas I am open to anything.

The Russian far east is Russian only in name. The demographics is already majority 'Chinese' (especially in the areas bordering China).

Russia and China did have a war - a border war. Coupla years back Russia concluded border agreement with China and I remember reading an interesting piece on the issues involved.

The Russian far east is Russian only in name. The demographics is already majority 'Chinese' (especially in the areas bordering China).

Russia and China did have a war - a border war. Coupla years back Russia concluded border agreement with China and I remember reading an interesting piece on the issues involved.

Yes I am very aware of this fact. That is why I suggested that the Chinese use that excuse to sever the overland trade link between Asia and the America's. However do you think the Chinese would risk being nuked to try and reclaim ancient Chinese lands?

China invades Russia to steal its communism and thus become stronger itself. Like Highlander, where they killed each other for their powers.

You don't need too much for plausibility. China is an expansionist state - the only reason it's stymied now is that it has strong neighbours all around. East, it hits the US either on the Korean Penninsula, Japan or the Aleutians. North, Russia. West, India. South, Indian or American client states.

I read a few years ago about what China actually claims. They have two maps - what they eventually want, and what they think they can get now. The latter is the one they show everyone. The former includes all of Siberia, Alaska and the Aleutians, Korea, Japan, the Phillipines, Thailand, Burma and southern India.

How about this - China stakes a big load of money and prestige into exploiting oil reserves in the Spratly Islands.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spratly_Islands

However, the basin turns out to be shallow - the wells run dry. China, desperate not to become outside oil dependent, attempts to seize the Siberian oil fields.

Yes I am very aware of this fact. That is why I suggested that the Chinese use that excuse to sever the overland trade link between Asia and the America's. However do you think the Chinese would risk being nuked to try and reclaim ancient Chinese lands?

In Mao's time, yes. That's what Mao did. He took on both the US and USSR when he did not have nuke deterrant that China has now.

Will any Chinese leader do that now? I think not. They have too much to lose if their eastern cities get nuked.

Personally, I think the era of great power wars is over. Unless there is a total paradigm shift in the current global order, the chance of wars between big nations like we had before, is very less.

You can try porxy wars. That is a certainty that will keep happening.

How about Chinese nukes in NK smuggled out and used by Chechen rebels in a prominent Moscow building and Russian intel uncovers a Chinese hand in this but cannot prove it, so they retaliate covertly...

I have to run...but I think something along those lines is more plausible (ofcourse, IMHO and all), than a direct war..

You don't need too much for plausibility. China is an expansionist state - the only reason it's stymied now is that it has strong neighbours all around. East, it hits the US either on the Korean Penninsula, Japan or the Aleutians. North, Russia. West, India. South, Indian or American client states.

I read a few years ago about what China actually claims. They have two maps - what they eventually want, and what they think they can get now. The latter is the one they show everyone. The former includes all of Siberia, Alaska and the Aleutians, Korea, Japan, the Phillipines, Thailand, Burma and southern India.

How about this - China stakes a big load of money and prestige into exploiting oil reserves in the Spratly Islands.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spratly_Islands

However, the basin turns out to be shallow - the wells run dry. China, desperate not to become outside oil dependent, attempts to seize the Siberian oil fields.

Now that scenario I like.

oil...seize the Siberian oil fields.

Most likely scenario. Russia, continuing its current demographic trends, rapidly shrinks to the point where it is no longer capable of defending its vast territorial bulk effectively. The PRC sees a golden opportunity to get a lot of oil at minimal military expenditure and moves on Siberia.

Most likely scenario. Russia, continuing its current demographic trends, rapidly shrinks to the point where it is no longer capable of defending its vast territorial bulk effectively. The PRC sees a golden opportunity to get a lot of oil at minimal military expenditure and moves on Siberia.

I partially agree with this scenario. However Russia's recent proclamation that they will use nukes in a major war should make a potential enemy think twice. You could reduce Russia down to 1 million however they still have nukes "the great equalizer". The smaller they get the higher the likelihood they would resort to using them I believe.

I partially agree with this scenario. However Russia's recent proclamation that they will use nukes in a major war should make a potential enemy think twice. You could reduce Russia down to 1 million however they still have nukes "the great equalizer". The smaller they get the higher the likelihood they would resort to using them I believe.

Of course...but I'd assume the PRC would move for decapitation strikes if they were to launch an aggressive war on anybody. I'd predict that they would try to kill the chain of command so as to limit their opponents ability to launch a nuclear counterstrike.

how about this one. a group that has existed since the rise of the czars has been working behind the shadows influencing its leaders and causing people like Lenin and Stalin to gain power. the reason why they do this is because both would further the goals of this group. well, the reason why china was actually transformed into a communist government because they made it so. well after years of this group not influencing china correctly there was a rebellion by its people to make it a republic with a system more like the uk or the us. because this group needed china to complete its goals, it has manipulated events (maybe something like ships being destroyed) to goad the Russian people to want a war with china in hopes that Russia will be able to destroy the chine's new government and recreate a communist one.

did that make enough sense?

how about this one. a group that has existed since the rise of the czars has been working behind the shadows influencing its leaders and causing people like Lenin and Stalin to gain power. the reason why they do this is because both would further the goals of this group. well, the reason why china was actually transformed into a communist government because they made it so. well after years of this group not influencing china correctly there was a rebellion by its people to make it a republic with a system more like the uk or the us. because this group needed china to complete its goals, it has manipulated events (maybe something like ships being destroyed) to goad the Russian people to want a war with china in hopes that Russia will be able to destroy the chine's new government and recreate a communist one.

did that make enough sense?

Sounds like something from the Da Vinci Code......

Sounds like something from the Da Vinci Code......

actually its more like groups like the illuminati

actually its more like groups like the illuminati

Either way I like the idea :D

i think it should be more of a character driven thing

the military leaders of china are very aggressive but they are hampered by knowing that they cant fight the US (over taiwan) and win. its very frustrating for them to not be able to build their power base by getting into wars (that they can win)

if a great military mind were to come up in china, one that is looking to take over the whole country in the long run, he would need a great conquest to take him to that level of popularity with the people.

all he would need is an excuse--a manufactured situation in manchuria perhaps--that would allow him to grab the immense resources of eastern russia and put china into the #1 spot of world powers.

then BAM you have not only a war, but a commander general to be reckoned with.

I have a good friend of mine that writes movie scripts. He is currently in negotiations to convert a movie script into a three book series. In his third book he was asking me for some ideas and suggestions. The dilemma that he is facing is finding a plausible scenario for a war between China and Russia. The time frame that is being looked at is 2025 to fit his story correctly. Apparently one of the Nostradamus predictions is a war between China and Russia. This is part of his story and why that time is chosen as the date for the conflict.
My scenario that I gave him is that China hits an economic downturn due to Russian economic expansion in the Russian Far East. I suggested that the tunnel linking N America and Siberia had been completed for a couple of years. Trade had grown exponentially with Russia, Central Asian and European nations with the US, Canada and Mexico. China is showing the begining signs of an major economic slowdown due to trade being shifted to these other nations. China strikes out into Russian Far East to sever the trade link under the guise to "claim" ancestral Chinese lands taken by the Russians.
Basically what do think about my suggestion and if you have any alternative ideas I am open to anything.
Sounds a lot like Tom Clancy's The Bear And The Dragon (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bear_and_the_Dragon) to me.

Sounds a lot like Tom Clancy's The Bear And The Dragon (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bear_and_the_Dragon) to me.

Actually never read any of Clancy's books. I read the back story of this book after you posted here. It is not the same. I was more going for the trade link(Bering Sea tunnel) as being the catalyst.

Sounds a lot like Tom Clancy's The Bear And The Dragon (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bear_and_the_Dragon) to me.

Yep, the modern Sino-Russo war scenarios have been around for quite a while and have been the subject of several books, as well as games.

Off of the top of my head, a short list of the books includes the aforementioned The Dragon and the Bear, as well as Eric L. Harry's books Arc Light (Russo-Sino war that ends up a world wide limited nuke war) and Protect and Defend (Russia collapses, China invades, US steps in to defend Russia).

A Sino-Soviet war was also an inmportant part of the original backstory for the RPG Twilight: 2000 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twilight_2000#Original_setting). (The game was originally published in 1984, hence it being a Sino-Soviet war.) There are a couple of other RPG settings that I know of that have a Sino-Soviet or Russo-Sino war as part of their back stories. And I'm sure I've come across a couple of wargames that do as well, even if I can't recall the titles (it's been a while since I did any active wargaming).

There is always North Korea. It could regain favor with one of the two (probably Russia, China isn't that stupid) and try to launch a renewed Korean war. However, before the troops attack, China (or Russia) attacks and annihilates the N. K. military before the US could get involved, thus enraging Kim Jong Ill's former ally. If this seems like a flimsy case for war, pretend that Russian or Chinese troops sent to aid the NKVD were also destroyed in the preliminary attack and their home country uses it as an excuse to go to war.

My scenario that I gave him is that China hits an economic downturn due to Russian economic expansion in the Russian Far East. I suggested that the tunnel linking N America and Siberia had been completed for a couple of years. Trade had grown exponentially with Russia, Central Asian and European nations with the US, Canada and Mexico. China is showing the begining signs of an major economic slowdown due to trade being shifted to these other nations. China strikes out into Russian Far East to sever the trade link under the guise to "claim" ancestral Chinese lands taken by the Russians.
Basically what do think about my suggestion and if you have any alternative ideas I am open to anything.


Fairly standard, except for the casus belli, which I find rather unbelievable. For one thing, the causes for the PRCs real life coming economic system are internal, not external. And secondly, starting a major war against the US* and Russia over a trade link is dubious at best.

(*You'd have to include the US if the PRC wants to sever the link between the US and Russia.)

China entering into a massive war with Russia would lead to the demise of communist China..which already faces far to many problems to become a superpower..the US and many European/Asian countries would back Russia and China would be defeated

Fairly standard, except for the casus belli, which I find rather unbelievable. For one thing, the causes for the PRCs real life coming economic system are internal, not external. And secondly, starting a major war against the US* and Russia over a trade link is dubious at best.

(*You'd have to include the US if the PRC wants to sever the link between the US and Russia.)

So a bit far fetched for the Casus Belli eh? Of course the US would be involved because as you stated it is an act of war against both nations. I also realize that the problems that will arise will come within China itself rather then outside. However as you know from history that nations will strike out because of internal problems at times.

China entering into a massive war with Russia would lead to the demise of communist China..which already faces far to many problems to become a superpower..the US and many European/Asian countries would back Russia and China would be defeated

Maybe so, but would like to hear more scenarios on how a war would erupt. This is to get an idea for a storyline on a conflict. OP says it all basically.

Well as for as reasons for war I could see Russia Initiating the conflict maybe for resources or something like that...or perhaps Russia attempting to incite a revolution against the current Chinese regime in order to exploit the civil unrest and use the pretext of wanting to restore peace and order for Invasion and occupation.Or if China started the conflict it would be from arrogance or the need for more land due to the massive over population and the need for more resources

So a bit far fetched for the Casus Belli eh? Of course the US would be involved because as you stated it is an act of war against both nations. I also realize that the problems that will arise will come within China itself rather then outside. However as you know from history that nations will strike out because of internal problems at times.

One idea that might work better is to consider the excess males problem - maybe something along the line of lebensraum?

Also, there's potential with the Islamic terrorists in Xinjiang, such as the ETIM (http://www.cfr.org/publication/9179/).

Also, does the PRC have to start the war? Maybe you could go the other way around?

You're (OP) idea sounds good enough I guess. The tension from China losing power to Russia would work as a catalyst. Oil has been mentioned, which might help your friend. In The West Wing China and Russia both started advancing into Kazakhstan to control oil (IIRC) and the US has to step in between them to prevent actual battles.

Well judging the other attemps of two MAJOR powers... Napoleon, RUINED, Hitler RUINED. I'd say China would get screwed, and there's a good chance Russia would too.

Hitler and Napoleon didn't have 1,300,000,000 playthings to turn into cannon fodder or tank factory workers ;)

Hitler and Napoleon didn't have 1,300,000,000 playthings to turn into cannon fodder or tank factory workers ;)

Mmm? 1,300,000,000 dies as quickly of starvation as one. The size doesn't count. If Nappy's 600,000 turned into 10,000 I doubt China could do it.

Well lets see it pragmatically it probably won't be a simple China vs Russia.
Eastern and Western Europe (particularly counting Germany and France) are dependant on Russian oil fields. Should China provocatively be the aggressor and declare war on Russia, most likely France and Germany would immediatly jump to Russia's side.
Now this might not mean much, however Germany and France have some of the best trained militaries in the world and superior technology to China and Russia and so can cause some serious damage. Especially if they send their combined navies to take out the Chinese navy to impede their movement. On top of France possessing nukes in case all goes wrong and Germany possessing large stockpiles of potent biological weapons.
Most likely with most of western europe fighting China and Russia, Taiwan would use the distraction to lob some missiles into the large cities of mainland China whilst it's military forces are stretched and preoccupied.
I would say most likely the US would either try to play neutral whilst supplying Russia with technology and supplies like in WW2. Or if the attack seriously hampers US trade the US would declare war on China.

This coupled with the fact that China is not a too stable country with high populations and strong rift between rural and urban populations. Rebellions would probably soon spring up in various part of the country in an attempt to free themselves while China's military power is in doubt. over a hundred ethnic groups have existed in China, the government of the People's Republic of China officially recognizes only a total of 56. Most likely the forerunners of these will be Tibet and parts of Inner Mongolia. Couple this with the fact that around 5% of the chinese populations is christian and 2% muslim. They are regularly oppressed by the communists and some might use the turmoil to cause more inner strife.


I would say China can only lose in such a conflict.

I would think a decent scenario involving Africa could be interesting. China is currently investing heavily in African companies and markets. By 2025 I'd imagine things in Africa could be improved. Chinese force very strong anti corruption initiatives perhaps. I am sure they will eventually look at the nations they have invested in as puppet states.

That could be the epicenter of your conflict which could give the excuse to reclaim the 'ancestral lands'. There will be African countries not sympathetic to the Chinese. This could give rise to border skirmishes that could escalate to full on war.

Also bear in mind the current situation with China's foreign exchange reserve reaching US$1.202 billion. What will China do with that? What with their economy growing at a huge rate and foreign companies getting a toehold in China. What will China be like in 2025?

Well I wonder if by then perhaps extreme nationalism has become the predominant feature of Chinese foreign policy coupled with changes in the Communist Party. I wonder if perhaps the Communist Party becomes filled with Chinese industrialists? A touch of feudalism always goes a long way (and after what are most corporate battles about? Territory and fiefdoms and the ancillary incompetence that comes with it occasionally) in a war story.

Lets say that from sometime now until then the Russians have engaged with Taiwan. Trade agreements bolstered with close military relationships. Would America allow this? I think so. Russia and China are rebuilding their naval fleets and Russia needs naval facilities outside of its borders.

Anyway just some thoughts.

One idea that might work better is to consider the excess males problem - maybe something along the line of lebensraum?

Also, there's potential with the Islamic terrorists in Xinjiang, such as the ETIM (http://www.cfr.org/publication/9179/).

Also, does the PRC have to start the war? Maybe you could go the other way around?

Well apparently China has to start it. I haven't read the actual Nostradamus prediction but from what I am told he speaks of the dragon striking out in the east in 2025. Apparently it was Russia that it was attacking. His whole series of stories ties in the vast majority of the legends over time. In fact they are going to make one of the parts into a "documentary form" movie about the spear of destiny.

What about the possibility that the U.S would adopt a neo-isolationaist policy from a Populist presidential canidate based upon the American Citizens distress over the War in Iraq and the on-going war on Terror, and the preliminary signs of a failing U.S economy. Thus with this new policy the U.S decides to withdraw its former military interventionist policy and military alliances with Russia and other Asian allies (and gradually disolving its diplomatic and economic ties). Although it does not condone the Chinese Invasion of Russia (visa versa) the U.S decides not to intervene into the growing Sino-Russo tensions due to its own growing Domestic problems of possible economic downturns, a rowdy public of citizens demanding civil rights, and governmental reform (which include Riots, and violent protests).

This is a rather far-fetched idea, but it would open the possibility of the PRC's expansion without the looming threat of U.S action.

Well apparently China has to start it. I haven't read the actual Nostradamus prediction but from what I am told he speaks of the dragon striking out in the east in 2025. Apparently it was Russia that it was attacking. His whole series of stories ties in the vast majority of the legends over time. In fact they are going to make one of the parts into a "documentary form" movie about the spear of destiny.

Hmmm..

I did have another thought - mayhapse you can "mine" the plot of Red Storm Rising for an idea.

Plot summary
Spoiler warning: Plot and/or ending details follow.

Azerbaijani terrorists destroy a new oil-production facility at Nizhnevartovsk, USSR, severely crippling Soviet oil production and threatening to wreck the Soviet economy. Facing a perceived need to make crippling concessions to the West to survive the crisis, the Politburo chooses a different path: war. The Politburo decides to seize the Persian Gulf oil fields by force. According to the Carter Doctrine, any attack on the Persian Gulf is an attack on a vital strategic interest of the United States, and will be treated as such, meaning a military response. To prevent NATO’s combined reaction, they first launch a KGB operation to split NATO by making it appear as if West Germany launched an unprovoked terrorist attack on the Soviet Union, followed by an invasion of Europe in response to that “attack.” With West Germany occupied, and NATO defeated, it is expected (well, hoped) that the United States will not feel the need to rescue the Arab oil states, as it can meet its oil needs with Western Hemisphere sources.


The PRC needs oil and gas. There are already pipelines from Russia. If something happens there, it'd serve as a more logical

Or, to echo another Clancy plot, [URL="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sum_of_All_Fears"]The Sum of All Fears (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Storm_Rising):
The US leaves Iraq in 2008, and Afghanistan winds down shortly after.
In the mid 2010s, there's a Tianamen like incident happens in Xinjiang, leading to an uprising among the Turkmens.
In the meantime, Checheny flares up again, and the Stans slowly get dragged in.
Al Qaida is now pissed off at the Russians and Chinese, more than the US. They play Russian and China off against each other...

It would definitely be about Central Asia. Maybe a big battle for Kazakh hearts and minds...a lot of natural resources at stake too.

Sounds like something from the Da Vinci Code......

Heh, I think you did what I did. Notice the name "Nostradamus" somewhere in the text of the OP, immediately decide film very bad idea.

You could possibly play off the economic growth of the Russian state, Russia is growing at a fast rate itself and this could lead to rising living standards within places like Vladivostok. If the Chinese populace see how well the Russians are living this could initiate some sort of uprising among the not so well off in China. What better way for the Chinese state government to try to stop these uprisings than by taking parts of Russia, to show that Russia isnt all that great. ( a sort of abbasyinna crisis but in russian form)

Of course China would be decimiated in a war with Russia, they have very few ICBMs as their deterent was to stop people attacking China itself, whereas Russia has shed loads of them. China would have to rely on its army which is increasing backward compared to the Russian military which has Tanks and Jets that are on par or even better than those within NATO. Plus other factors such as the backing from the EU and more than likely India and possibly Vietnam would not help the Chinese cause.

Either way good luck with the book

China's leader dies and a new leader takes up power in Beijing. This new leader has expansionist aims, and begins with invasions of Mongolia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Nepal, using staged terrorist attacks in Chinese cities as an excuse. Despite Russian pleas, China launches a bombing raid on a refugee camp outside of Ulaan Bataar, claiming that rockets had been fired on the Chinese positions in the city from that camp. After the invaded nations had been assimilated into the new Chinese empire, tensions rise between the two nations. Eventually China, aided by anti-Putin rebels and North Korean troops, invade the Kamchatka peninsula and Sakhalin, using the excuse that Chinese workers on the islands had been attacked and imprisoned by the Russians. The Russians respond in kind by bombing northern Chinese cities.

The whole thing escalates until the Chinese threaten the use of nuclear missiles on Siberian cities.

In Tom Clancy's book "The Bear and the Dragon" China attacks Russia to steal resources - specifically an oil field and a gold mine the Russians found at the start of the book. That said, Russia is now allied with the US, so the US helps out.

The time frame that is being looked at is 2025 to fit his story correctly.
...
China strikes out into Russian Far East to sever the trade link under the guise to "claim" ancestral Chinese lands taken by the Russians.


LOL!:D

Russia, of course, stops to provide spare parts for the Chinese arsenal. Bye bye China... no more spare parts for your Sukhois.

Europe, US, India, Australia, Indonesia and Japan stop trade with China.

Now China is left with her national production, while the Russians hammer at the chinese strategical industries with waves of Tu-160 Blackjacks and Su-34 Fullbacks (notice, I'm using today's arsenal). Long-range cruise missiles strike at powerplants. Su-34s do the job they're built for and destroy 70% of the electrical power of China in the first 4 days.
Chinese aviation is wiped off the sky in 2 days by Su-35s, Su-37s, while MiG-29s protect the Russian airbases. S-400 SAMs strike down everything in a 400-km radius.

India warns China not to use nuclear weapons, or they will nuke away, too.
Russian intelligence prepares a strike against the Chinese nuclear arsenal. In the subsequent 2-days air attack, China loses 90% of its nuclear capability.

Russian Borei-class and Oskar-class subs patrol the Yellow Sea and sink everything that floats under a chinese flag. The Russian Pacific fleet cruises off Shangai with two carriers, four Slava-class and Kirov-class cruisers, plus support cruisers of the Sovremennyj and Udaloj class.

Russian diplomacy contacts muslim in western China and promises independence and support, along with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

Chinese armoured divisions search Siberia for the Russians, who start applying diversionary tactics while retreating, causing the invaders' supply lines to become more vulnerable, and strike at them with AirCav operations (Speznats on Mi-24 variants with Ka-52 and Mi-28 support). Once the chinese armour runs out of fuel, the Russian counterattack with waves of T-90, T-80U and upgraded T-72BV, with the support of mech infantry on BMP-3 and Krizantema AT missiles.

Viet-Nam closes its borders and begins massing troops. North Korea declares neutrality.

Chinese pilots and ships try to escape to South Korea and Japan.

The failure of the attack causes the Chinese leadership to run amok. On day 30 from the beginning of the war, with no more electricity, no more oil, no more troops on Russian land, and no more trade due to the naval blockade, big unrest begins in Beijing and in the major metropoleis of China. Repression starts everywhere.

The Russians, having contacted secretly some chinese opposition leaders, send 2 airborne Speznats division to seize the political centre of Beijing, while the armoured divisions of the Russian army pour into Manchuria and russian navy troops attack and seize Shangai with Lebed and Pomornik hovercrafts.

India exploits the Chinese weakness and "liberate" Tibet with the support of the buddhist Lamas.

In less than 1 month, China is well done. Major cities have revolted and support the Russians. Western China is becoming an independent Muslim country. Manchuria gets under Russian military administration. Tibet is held by Indian troops and the chinese try to escape ethnical cleansing.

Sino-Soviet Split 2.0?

LOL!:D

Russia, of course, stops to provide spare parts for the Chinese arsenal. Bye bye China... no more spare parts for your Sukhois.

Europe, US, India, Australia, Indonesia and Japan stop trade with China.

Now China is left with her national production, while the Russians hammer at the chinese strategical industries with waves of Tu-160 Blackjacks and Su-34 Fullbacks (notice, I'm using today's arsenal). Long-range cruise missiles strike at powerplants. Su-34s do the job they're built for and destroy 70% of the electrical power of China in the first 4 days.
Chinese aviation is wiped off the sky in 2 days by Su-35s, Su-37s, while MiG-29s protect the Russian airbases. S-400 SAMs strike down everything in a 400-km radius.

India warns China not to use nuclear weapons, or they will nuke away, too.
Russian intelligence prepares a strike against the Chinese nuclear arsenal. In the subsequent 2-days air attack, China loses 90% of its nuclear capability.

Russian Borei-class and Oskar-class subs patrol the Yellow Sea and sink everything that floats under a chinese flag. The Russian Pacific fleet cruises off Shangai with two carriers, four Slava-class and Kirov-class cruisers, plus support cruisers of the Sovremennyj and Udaloj class.

Russian diplomacy contacts muslim in western China and promises independence and support, along with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.

Chinese armoured divisions search Siberia for the Russians, who start applying diversionary tactics while retreating, causing the invaders' supply lines to become more vulnerable, and strike at them with AirCav operations (Speznats on Mi-24 variants with Ka-52 and Mi-28 support). Once the chinese armour runs out of fuel, the Russian counterattack with waves of T-90, T-80U and upgraded T-72BV, with the support of mech infantry on BMP-3 and Krizantema AT missiles.

Viet-Nam closes its borders and begins massing troops. North Korea declares neutrality.

Chinese pilots and ships try to escape to South Korea and Japan.

The failure of the attack causes the Chinese leadership to run amok. On day 30 from the beginning of the war, with no more electricity, no more oil, no more troops on Russian land, and no more trade due to the naval blockade, big unrest begins in Beijing and in the major metropoleis of China. Repression starts everywhere.

The Russians, having contacted secretly some chinese opposition leaders, send 2 airborne Speznats division to seize the political centre of Beijing, while the armoured divisions of the Russian army pour into Manchuria and russian navy troops attack and seize Shangai with Lebed and Pomornik hovercrafts.

India exploits the Chinese weakness and "liberate" Tibet with the support of the buddhist Lamas.

In less than 1 month, China is well done. Major cities have revolted and support the Russians. Western China is becoming an independent Muslim country. Manchuria gets under Russian military administration. Tibet is held by Indian troops and the chinese try to escape ethnical cleansing.

Only problem with that is the Chinese build their own kit...and spares. Also remember that right now China are starting on building a massive Navy that will rival the US in size...the Russians are also building. However Russia does not have the economy to sustain a massive enlargement of its military. Hell it can't even hardly pay its soldiers right now.

I would say that it is more likely that the Chinese invade Russia under the remit of preventing rebellion encroaching on China.

Only problem with that is the Chinese build their own kit...and spares. Also remember that right now China are starting on building a massive Navy that will rival the US in size...the Russians are also building. However Russia does not have the economy to sustain a massive enlargement of its military. Hell it can't even hardly pay its soldiers right now.


No way. They build the spares for the low-tech weapons like their lousy copies of the MiG-21. There was an article in www.fas.org who quoted Chinese officers who said "we will build 30% of the parts of our Su-30MKK in 2010". Su-30MKK are an export version of the Su-27, maiden flight in the early '80s. That is, when Russia will replace its Su-27 with MFI and LFI, China will build 30% of the parts of a 30-years old airplane.

Also, a Type 80 is no match for a T-90.

The Chinese navy is mostly made by old cruisers sent by Russia - three years ago they bought 2 Sovremennyj-class (about 20 years old). Seesh.

Russia is regaining economical stability: they have resources, they have tech, they sell it all around the world. In the next 5 years, the negative heritage of the last years of CCCP and of El'cin's mismanagement will be over. And who needs to enlarge the Russian military? What do you think they want to do, take over the world?

No way. They build the spares for the low-tech weapons like their lousy copies of the MiG-21. There was an article in www.fas.org who quoted Chinese officers who said "we will build 30% of the parts of our Su-30MKK in 2010". Su-30MKK are an export version of the Su-27, maiden flight in the early '80s. That is, when Russia will replace its Su-27 with MFI and LFI, China will build 30% of the parts of a 30-years old airplane.

Also, a Type 80 is no match for a T-90.

The Chinese navy is mostly made by old cruisers sent by Russia - three years ago they bought 2 Sovremennyj-class (about 20 years old). Seesh.

Russia is regaining economical stability: they have resources, they have tech, they sell it all around the world. In the next 5 years, the negative heritage of the last years of CCCP and of El'cin's mismanagement will be over. And who needs to enlarge the Russian military? What do you think they want to do, take over the world?

Well the Chinese are developing their own advanced fighter. The J-XX which could enter service by 2015. Janes Defense China also report that China have started work on their own stealth bomber. I'll try and see if I dig up the article.

http://www.newscientisttech.com/channel/tech/weapons/dn3174.html

Of course if its old tech and the Russians can detect 1st gen stealth then I would not want to be a J-XX pilot!

Spares. Sorry but I would not believe that (the 30% manufacturing cap). China would not risk its airforce without the ability to make its own spares. And if there is a war (and there is a history of aggression between the two nations) all trade deals are off.

The Chinese navy is indeed a joke at the moment. However they are planning on building a bunch of 'blue water' surface ships (95 I think was the figure) to start with.

This ONI report is quite interesting...

http://www.fas.org/irp/agency/oni/chinanavy2007.pdf

Russia has been regaining economic stability for the last 15 years...yet can't even pay its Army properly.