NationStates Jolt Archive

Ok, in few days we will know.

Anyway, your opinion?

i think royal can do it if those on the left who didn't vote for her in the first round are motivated enough to vote again. and i think they will be (although the turnout will inevitably be lower in the second round) and they won't vote for sarkozy. i reckon sarkozy has all the votes he was going to get while royal has a potential to gain many more.

Polls indicate that Sarkozy has widened his lead.

I don't really care for the man, but I think he's going to win.

Short of a shocking revelation that Sarkozy eats baby Frenchmen for breakfast lunch and dinner, complete with thirty seconds of film footage and sound...he'll win. Coming into it with his existing lead, plus the Le Pen voters means the pressure to win the Bayrou crowd is somewhat lower for him than for Royal.

How did both candidates do with regards to the televised debate?

How did both candidates do with regards to the televised debate?

I think it was a bit of a stalemate, no one really won.

How did both candidates do with regards to the televised debate?

I believe there was a weak public perception that Sarkozy won the debate, but no press opinion either way. Opinion polls reflect a 51% opinion that Sarko. won with a 32% opinion that Royal won, and the rest of the population was just clueless. Nothing particularly decisive.

What I've read indicates that both played to their bases on policy issues, nothing to sway voters from the other side. Although Sarkozy was somewhat more passive than usual, whilst Royal was more aggressive than usual. It was an interesting juxtaposition, knowing that this runs contrary to their usual characterizations.

How did both candidates do with regards to the televised debate?

Apparently Royal got pretty pissed about handicapped kids, and Sarkozy accused her of losing her cool saying that you had to keep your cool to be president of the republic.

I don't know what that means to french voters, but the clip I saw was pretty funny.

my money is on Sarkozy winning, he just has too much of a lead:(

so no Valéry Giscard d'Estaing type statements regarding the heart then? ;)

Damn...that sure was a vote winner for Valéry!

I had a feeling the debates would be slightly....damp squibish...shame that.

Lacadeamon - do you have a link to the clip in English? I (sadly) don't speak French...

Short of a shocking revelation that Sarkozy eats baby Frenchmen for breakfast lunch and dinner, complete with thirty seconds of film footage and sound...he'll win. Coming into it with his existing lead, plus the Le Pen voters means the pressure to win the Bayrou crowd is somewhat lower for him than for Royal.

I see the Bayrou crowd as splitting 60/40 in favor of Royal.

That means that with the Le Pen crowd, and 40 percent of the Bayrou crowd, Sarkozy wins, no matter how many Left turn out.

so no Valéry Giscard d'Estaing type statements regarding the heart then? ;)

Damn...that sure was a vote winner for Valéry!

I had a feeling the debates would be slightly....damp squibish...shame that.

Lacadeamon - do you have a link to the clip in English? I (sadly) don't speak French...

Sorry, I saw it on CNBC Europe. It might be on Le YouTube....

Sorry, I saw it on CNBC Europe. It might be on Le YouTube....http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKIaSGw-47E

It's near the end. :D

I see the Bayrou crowd as splitting 60/40 in favor of Royal.

That means that with the Le Pen crowd, and 40 percent of the Bayrou crowd, Sarkozy wins, no matter how many Left turn out.Le Pen has angrily speaked against Sarkozy.. and has officially asked the LePen-voters to vote "blank".

no-matter.. even without the LePen-Crowd.. Sarko is going to take it..

Le Pen has angrily speaked against Sarkozy.. and has officially asked the LePen-voters to vote "blank".

no-matter.. even without the LePen-Crowd.. Sarko is going to take it..

All the analysis and polling that I have see says that the vast bulk of the Le Pen crowd will ignore the directive to abstain and vote for Sarkozy. Better to have him than a Socialist would seem to be their motivation.

Based on what I've picked up from my European politics class, Sarkozy should take it.

Whilst my personal politics lead me to support Sarkozy, I must confess I would rather have either as politicians in the UK than the current crop of soulless, uncharismatic metronomes we have. Royal may be prone to the odd gaffe, and have all the spine of the average Guardian reader, but I do respect her for her evident principles.

All the analysis and polling that I have see says that the vast bulk of the Le Pen crowd will ignore the directive to abstain and vote for Sarkozy.hmm.. Thats bad news for Ségolène.

hmm.. Thats bad news for Ségolène.

Shame that.:p

hmm.. Thats bad news for Ségolène.

Very...the TNS-Sofres poll shows Sarko with 54.5 and Royal with 45.5...grim numbers for her...with a little under 10% of the electorate undecided, it would seem near impossible for Royal to close the gap.

I'd much prefer to see Sego win, but I think Sarko is almost certain to.

For a 50 year old woman, Royal is pretty hot.

I watched more of it tonight on CSpan,

I have to say I think I support Royal. She's a little milfy.

Added to that, I'll be dead in the frozen ground before I support some Hungarian parvenu.