NationStates Jolt Archive

so who would actually be the next superpower in say by 2020???

Luxembourg.

Well, they've done Superman, Batman, Spiderman, Catwoman, The Fantastic Four, The Hulk... I'm not really sure who that leaves.

i think it would be china.

Well, they've done Superman, Batman, Spiderman, Catwoman, The Fantastic Four, The Hulk... I'm not really sure who that leaves.

Me of course. Optimistic Man

well, if we think about it the EU are not really pulling themselves together aint they, and that just basically leave china.

Chad.

Ireland. And maybe the Marshall Islands.

If things go according to plan, then it should be Barringtonia

I have one simple requirement. And that is to have sharks with frickin' laser beams attached to their heads!

Liechtenstein (not really, but if it happened, I was the one who predicted it :) )

China would have to collapse before 2020.

Beyond that, i'd say the Philippines. There's too many of 'em, population keeps on growing and emigrating to other nations. There's another way to control the world aside from missiles, you know...

The U.S. will still be the world's only Superpower in 2020.

Now 2050? Good question...I'll guess India, though China is up there as well.

China would have to collapse before 2020.

Beyond that, i'd say the Philippines. There's too many of 'em, population keeps on growing and emigrating to other nations. There's another way to control the world aside from missiles, you know...

Exactly. Ireland takes the prize with all those tacky Irish themed bars everywhere

Starbucks

McDonalds

Nike

N00bs?

The U.S. will still be the world's only Superpower in 2020.

Now 2050? Good question...I'll guess India, though China is up there as well.

wrong. You're already losing superpower status, if not already lost it.

Poland.

Poland.
There is no such thing as Poland.

That black van across the street is not there to monitor you. Please continue as usual.

Starbucks

McDonalds

Nike


good point

San Marino. Surprise effect goes a long way.

Papua New Guinea!

Failing that I think that Antartica would have several things going for it if only the penguins managed to make an millitary and extort the world by threatening to release all the ice (thus raising sea levels).

Papua New Guinea!

Failing that I think that Antartica would have several things going for it if only the penguins managed to make an millitary and extort the world by threatening to release all the ice (thus raising sea levels).

They're already trying to do this, but nobody has realised yet. We don't speak penguin.

Poland.

Maybe, until Russia or Germany take you over (again!)

They're already trying to do this, but nobody has realised yet. We don't speak penguin.

You fail to realise that they have two languages. The acoustic one we haven't managed to figure out in the slightest but we are getting closer to deceiphering their signal based one. For some reason that language is made up of tap dancing.

For the last time, it won't be China, because they economy will crash into a wall.

You are all forgetting one nation.
Djibouti!

China. Japan is coming back also. I'm personally rooting for the EU though.

everyone ignores Brazil :(

...and Russia they want to be friends :)

so who would actually be the next superpower in say by 2020???

2020 isn't all that far away. The US will still be the world's sole superpower.

wrong. You're already losing superpower status, if not already lost it.

What alternate dimension are you in?

In response to the OP: Trinidad and Tobago.

so who would actually be the next superpower in say by 2020???

Why must you ask about the future?
Is not the present and past horrible enough?
Take one year at a time.

What alternate dimension are you in?

Poland.

http://photo.gangus.com/d/26764-2/zing.jpg

http://209.85.48.8/9854/48/emo/roflma.gif

You are all wrong, its obviously Canada. ;)

All i need to make it work is to take Richard Dean Anderson hostage and make him build me a series on Superpower destroying missles. These shall inturn take out the USA, then China=World Power then I unleash on them and so on until only Canada isleft. After this I have all traces of weapons destroyed and force them to continue the making of Stargate SG-1 for even longer bringing back O'Niel! :D

MUWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!:D

Go Canada go! go Canada go!

2020 the list will be like this:

#1: China
#2: USA and EU one has more military influence, the other more political and economic.
#3: India.
#4: Japan
#5: Brazil

2050:
#1: India
#2: EU and USA same as last
#3: China
#4: Brazil
#5: Russia

Me of course. Optimistic Man

Nah.

Incredibly Average Man.

He's amazingly mediocre.

He's radically moderate.

He is your average Joe.

Yes, it will be China as long as you ignore the fact that much of China is as poor as Haiti--care to check out the GDP of Yunan, Qinghai and Gansu sometime? The Chinese banks using western standards are bankrupt, the SOEs suck billions and billions out of the economy and the economy is kept afloat by the huge amount of FDI coming from the likes of Taiwan and the trade surplus it has with countries like the US. Two-way trade between China and the US is over 100 billion dollars, but the US sells more to Taiwan and Singapore combined (population 27 million) than it does to China. And until just last year, it sold more to Taiwan alone than it did to China.

Add that to the weekly peasant uprisings throughout the country and the fact that most of China is still made up of semi-literate peasants and the gap between the rich and poor is as great today as it was in 1949. Oh and the fact that the foolish "One Child Policy" has skewed the gender ratios. On Hainan, the gap is 135 boys for every 100 girls which will soon unleash untold havoc on the Chinese social fabric.

Sounds like a superpower-to-be to me.

Might want to look into Gordan Chang's book "The Coming Collapse of China" which details the multiple problems facing China.

I agree, the Era of China is comming to an end... And the funny part is, it hasn't even started yet.

Israel.

You are all wrong, its obviously Canada. ;)

All i need to make it work is to take Richard Dean Anderson hostage and make him build me a series on Superpower destroying missles. These shall inturn take out the USA, then China=World Power then I unleash on them and so on until only Canada isleft. After this I have all traces of weapons destroyed and force them to continue the making of Stargate SG-1 for even longer bringing back O'Niel! :D

MUWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!:D

Best thing of all is that you can get him to make the missiles out of:

-Lump of chewing gum.
-Piece of string.
-Cardboard tube.
-Half a pencil.
-And most importantly, a paperclip.

Most global landscape predictions for 2020 continue to have the US in the top spot, although the PRC will continue to rise. I doubt we'll see a transition until 2030 at least, if not 2040.

Energy issues will slow the development of the PRC, as it lacks the infrastructure to adapt and change as rapidly as a more developed country would.

I'm guessing China sadly. Iran may also be a lot stronger.

Most global landscape predictions for 2020 continue to have the US in the top spot, although the PRC will continue to rise. I doubt we'll see a transition until 2030 at least, if not 2040.

Energy issues will slow the development of the PRC, as it lacks the infrastructure to adapt and change as rapidly as a more developed country would.

And in 1945, it was predicted that the major economy of Asia would be the Philippines and Alexis de Tocqueville predicted that Mexico would be the major power in North America--both of these predictions were wrong. It is simply foolish to try to guess who will be the major powers--economic or otherwise far out into the future.

Could the PRC be the next great power--sure--but this is only true if it can address the many serious problems I outlined in my earlier post--problems it so far refuses to address. And it is just as likely even more likely in my opinion that it will implode into a 1911 or 1949-style collapse. Remember that Tang China at the time the most advanced culture on earth and it collasped to be replaced by the Song who had half their domain overrun by the Jurchen (even going so far as to sack and rape the capital of Kaifeng and capture the emperor) and later the Mongols took what was left of the Song civilization.

I am sure if there had been people about writing about such things at the time, people would have said that China was going to rule the world--didn't work out that way.

I'm just amused by all those Americans poking their heads in the sand and going "LOLZ WE WILL BE BEST 4EVAH!!11!¬!!!"

Your army is bleeding out on the sands of Iraq and in the hills of Afghanistan, your economy receding, your enemies growing stronger...

New World Order, bring it on

Me of course. Optimistic Man

I can see it now...your arch villain will be PESSIMISTO

And in 1945, it was predicted that the major economy of Asia would be the Philippines and Alexis de Tocqueville predicted that Mexico would be the major power in North America--both of these predictions were wrong. It is simply foolish to try to guess who will be the major powers--economic or otherwise far out into the future.

Could the PRC be the next great power--sure--but this is only true if it can address the many serious problems I outlined in my earlier post--problems it so far refuses to address. And it is just as likely even more likely in my opinion that it will implode into a 1911 or 1949-style collapse. Remember that Tang China at the time the most advanced culture on earth and it collasped to be replaced by the Song who had half their domain overrun by the Jurchen (even going so far as to sack and rape the capital of Kaifeng and capture the emperor) and later the Mongols took what was left of the Song civilization.

I am sure if there had been people about writing about such things at the time, people would have said that China was going to rule the world--didn't work out that way.

I'd argue that the primary reason I am predicting Chinese rise is the response of other powerful states to the PRC. The US, Japan, Australia and the Republic of Korea have all been quietly undertaking measures to solidify a front to the growth of the PRC. The status quo States are balancing against the PRC, which is a strong indicator that it is perceived to be an upcoming revisionist power.

Further, we can also see the states that experience the greatest threat from an increase in the power of the PRC seeking to make inroads into this united front. Mongolia is doing everything it can to closely align itself with what one might feel is a non-traditional ally; the United States...an act that I would consider to be closely tied to an increased perception of threat from the PRC. Taiwan, too, continues to rely on American guarantees to ensure its independence, and will seek to make inroads into the US favor.

The US, in turn, is seeking to gain strategic partners in the region, ranging from increasing cooperation with India (look at last year's nuclear power deal); a potential counterweight to the PRC in raw labor potential, to increasingly close ties to the Philippine military in their continued counterinsurgency efforts. The use of the US Navy in the tsunami relief effort, patrols of the Straits of Malacca and other increased ties also signal an interest in coming close to Indonesia, another potentially important strategic partner in the region.

On the other hand, several states with less than stellar relations with the US are increasingly seeking to draw closer to the PRC. The Sudan, for instance, is an example of a state trying to link itself to the PRC to serve as a counter to American power. North Korea and several of the states of the Indochina area are also seeking to draw closer to the PRC: A source of strength in opposition to the US. Ever weakening Russia is increasingly concerned about the NATO presence in Eastern Europe. To whom do they turn for strength? The PRC. I think we're starting to see a clear picture in this arena as well.

A global clash is calcifying in East Asia, and we still are not paying sufficient attention to it. We will find ourselves in a new and dangerous Cold War if we are not careful, and...yeah...that's my analysis.

Edit: We can also see that the US is seeking to strengthen ties with its traditional allies in Europe, especially economic ties, which are going to be of vital importance in this oncoming global clash.

I'm just amused by all those Americans poking their heads in the sand and going "LOLZ WE WILL BE BEST 4EVAH!!11!¬!!!"

Your army is bleeding out on the sands of Iraq and in the hills of Afghanistan, your economy receding, your enemies growing stronger...

New World Order, bring it on

The US economy is receding? What the hell are you talking about?

I'm just amused by all those Americans poking their heads in the sand and going "LOLZ WE WILL BE BEST 4EVAH!!11!¬!!!"

Your army is bleeding out on the sands of Iraq and in the hills of Afghanistan, your economy receding, your enemies growing stronger...

New World Order, bring it on

Maybe not forever, but there is not a single state out there that has the prospect of overtaking the US in the near future--economically or militarily. And while the US has problems (which country doesn't?), they pale in comparison with China's.

The US economy is receding? What the hell are you talking about?

Oh, nothing sensible

Just the UK Pound/US Dollar exchange rate

And the growing American national debt

Just silly talk really

Maybe not forever, but there is not a single state out there that has the prospect of overtaking the US in the near future--economically or militarily. And while the US has problems (which country doesn't?), they pale in comparison with China's.

Well, Europe's got a better GDP, for example...

Oh, nothing sensible

Just the UK Pound/US Dollar exchange rate

And the growing American national debt

Just silly talk really

Neither are signs of economic recession. Rather we continue to see robust US GDP growth, continued gains in the stock market and a housing sector that is nowhere near as bad as some predicted it would be. GDP is the single most important indicator of economic strength available.

The national debt can be alleviated by several years of fiscal responsibility (which we will hopefully see now that the Congress and the Presidency are in opposition to each other) and exchange rates mean very little, unless associated with rapid fluctuations in value.

Well, Europe's got a better GDP, for example...

Except for the fact that Europe is not a single country, a fact that is merely reinforced by the failure of the Constitution.

uhh I think everyone is forgetting the obvious....Martians will conquer Earth on July 4 2007

http://youtube.com/watch?v=LlxNUpPH9Ag&mode=related&search=

Urm...exchange rates do mean quite a lot, you Yanks do have to buy stuff from abroad you know? You're not self sufficent by any means

And as for years of fiscal responsibility, I would love to see that happen.

Neither are signs of economic recession. Rather we continue to see robust US GDP growth, continued gains in the stock market and a housing sector that is nowhere near as bad as some predicted it would be. GDP is the single most important indicator of economic strength available.

The national debt can be alleviated by several years of fiscal responsibility (which we will hopefully see now that the Congress and the Presidency are in opposition to each other) and exchange rates mean very little, unless associated with rapid fluctuations in value.

Well, robust growth, just because the 1,3% growth was expected doesn't make it a good rate (which also was 0,5% below estimate). But Indeed the US economy is not receding, again you couldn't honestly say it's growing by any substantial means compared to the rest of the developed world let alone developing world.

Fiscal responsibility will also only take away federal debt, do you know that the USA has much more debt? The Federal government numbers away its debt by giving less funding to the states of the USA (you know Arizona, Texas, California, New York) so that they are forced to get loans themselves those figures are still government debt but can be kept away from the publics attention. That's how the US government tricks you into thinking debt is far lower: US debt consisting out of Federal/State/County/Buisness/Personall debt combined is 3,7 times greater then the US economy. This means that if the USA would want to get rid of its debt: the USA would have to tax 100% on all fronts and then it would take 3 to 4 years.

Except for the fact that Europe is not a single country, a fact that is merely reinforced by the failure of the Constitution.

But it is a single economic entity. On the Economic level, the EU does have the influence of a country because of it being 1 economic entity.

On most economies, an EU embargoe would have more effect then a US embargoe.

But it is a single economic entity. On the Economic level, the EU does have the influence of a country because of it being 1 economic entity.

On most economies, an EU embargoe would have more effect then a US embargoe.

So is North America, and we don't see anyone going around claiming the NAFTA states are a single state.

So is North America, and we don't see anyone going around claiming the NAFTA states are a single state.

You really have no Idea of the difference between NAFTA and the EU do you?

You really have no Idea of the difference between NAFTA and the EU do you?
Enlighten us, then.

Well, robust growth, just because the 1,3% growth was expected doesn't make it a good rate (which also was 0,5% below estimate). But Indeed the US economy is not receding, again you couldn't honestly say it's growing by any substantial means compared to the rest of the developed world let alone developing world.

GDP growth has taken a temporary hit from the effects of the housing slowdown. The vast bulk of the other aspects of the economy continue to show robust growth. Further, much of the US has experienced harsh late-winter weather, which has had an impact on economic performance as well. As always, US GDP will fluctuate, and we'll probably see better GDP growth in Quarters II and III, now that the weird weather of quarter I is fine. Further, US GDP growth is in line with the rest of the developed world.

Germany has experienced from the reforms initiated under Chancellor Schroeder, and the current round of economic growth is tied to the decreasing government restrictions on the economy. The German economy will experience a temporary period of rapid economic growth, which will cool off to something in the range of 1.5-2.5% within several quarters.
Comparing growth in developed and developing economies, though, is like comparing apples to oranges.

Fiscal responsibility will also only take away federal debt, do you know that the USA has much more debt? The Federal government numbers away its debt by giving less funding to the states of the USA (you know Arizona, Texas, California, New York) so that they are forced to get loans themselves those figures are still government debt but can be kept away from the publics attention. That's how the US government tricks you into thinking debt is far lower: US debt consisting out of Federal/State/County/Buisness/Personall debt combined is 3,7 times greater then the US economy. This means that if the USA would want to get rid of its debt: the USA would have to tax 100% on all fronts and then it would take 3 to 4 years.

Except the US states are far more responsible fiscally than the Federal Government, with multiple years of balanced budgets on records in many of them.

Enlighten us, then.

www.google.com , you lazy sod

Urm...exchange rates do mean quite a lot, you Yanks do have to buy stuff from abroad you know? You're not self sufficent by any means

And as for years of fiscal responsibility, I would love to see that happen.

The US has managed to climb out of the hole before (after the Cold War ended, the US had massive debt), so it's not gonna be miraculous to repeat.

Do I really need to post my essay again?

Ok well here it goes:

NAFTA: reduction of trade tarrifs. Nothing much more. (no parliament, no law system (so NAFTA isn't allowed to say: every NAFTA state MUST allow gay Marraige while the EU can))

EU: (things you don't find in my essay: NO borders, a monitery union, a single fiscal policy, a law system where brussels can decide whether EU members are allowed the death penalty, Gay Marraige, Euthenasia etc., a budget, a military (yes there is a military in the EU the Transport capacity of the EU!!! military (not EU member states military but EU military) is 20.000 troops anywhere in the world a day and a reaction force etc etc etc growing fast blablabla, the goal to become one nation)

The European Union,

According to me the European Union is going to be a great superpower in this world. Although it will be different from the one we know today, the USA mainly gets its power threw militarization, and just forcing itself upon nations. This is attracting increasingly more resistance to the USA and lately we have even been seeing great resistance come from even the most loyal of the American allies, not to mention from less loyal- or non-allies. There are a few criteria that a nation has to meet before it can be certified as a Superpower and I will explain to you why the EU is actually a superpower. I warn you this is a long read but please, don’t criticize this if you haven’t read this. Or please do as I then know it is fuelled by nothing more then just sticking your head into the ground and hoping it will never happen.

Cultural

The European Union has great sphere of cultural influence due to the fact that the EU has a great diversity of cultures. Also the fact that the EU is a very pacifistic nation and is not totally work focussed makes it a more attractive culture then other Superpower cultures.
The following map also shows the nations in which the European Union’s influence is greater then any other (potential)Superpower. Of course this does not count if Russia is also to be considered a potential superpower as Russia has more influence over itself then the EU does ;) but I don’t regard Russia as a potential superpower.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1a/EUFA.png

Geographically

Geographically the EU is also very privileged, the EU is the only (potential)Superpower in the world besides the USA that has a high enough food production to sustain itself and have enough to sell, also the EU is the only (potential)Superpower besides the USA that has enough natural recourses to sustain itself for decades to come, if you count out Oil and Gas that is but this goes for the USA as well. But since the EU is the only (potential)Superpower that is making meaningful efforts to completely cut off reliance of oil and natural gas, you could say that the EU also has the edge here.

The EU also has a geographical edge that no other (potential)Superpower has, and that is the fact that the EU has land everywhere. The EU has part of its land in South America, Islands off North America, Islands off central America, Islands off Africa, Islands in the Pacific, Islands in the Indian Ocean. Other (potential)superpowers have to rely on the leasing/renting of land in allied nations while Europe has the potential to build military installations in every part of the world without needing to ask a government beside its own.
The following map shows you the location of European overseas territory
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/44/Map-Europe-Outermost-regions.PNG

Economic

The EU economy is very large, in fact he largest economy in the world. According to IMF data the GDP of the EU is currently $14.518,503 Billion current International Dollars. According to the IMF the EU 2008 GDP level will be $15.172,720 Billion Current International Dollars.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2007/01/data/weorept.aspx?sy=2004&ey=2008&ssd=1&sort=subject&ds=.&br=0&pr1.x=47&pr1.y=12&c=998&s=PPPWGT&grp=1&a=1[
To compare I will first list the USA then China and then Japan. In these lists there will be 2 numbers the first is the current GDP level in billions current international dollars, the 2nd will be the 2008 GDP level in billions current international dollars.
USA: $13.657,129 & $14.384,872
China: $11.206,808 & $12.517,842
Japan: $4.346,008 & $4.518,827
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2007/01/data/weorept.aspx?sy=2004&ey=2008&ssd=1&sort=subject&ds=%2C&br=0&pr1.x=88&pr1.y=5&c=924%2C158%2C111&s=PPPWGT&grp=0&a=
Furthermore the EU infrastructure is one of the best in the world, and there are regions with THE best in the world. Productivty in the EU is also at a very high level, while at the same time the EU’s workweek is lower then in any other (potential)Superpower, as a matter of fact, recent studies published in the Wallstreet Journal show that the EU’s productivity per hour is unmatched.
When it comes to innovation the EU is up there with the USA, however the USA does have more patents per million people but due to the fact that the EU has far more inhabitants the EU figure is quite similar.
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_pat_gra-economy-patents-granted
Another measurement of economic power (so it seems) is the space ability. The EU is the owner of a very large space agency, the only space agency in the world that rivals the American NASA. The ESA is constantly performing manned flights in space and it has a vast array of satellites both scientific and commercial. As a matter of fact the most important unmanned missions of the last 10 years are dominantly European and Europe has been working on it’s own space shuttle for quite some time now, there is even an upcoming ESA improved equivalent of the Hubble space telescope. http://www.friends-partners.org/partners/mwade/graphics/m/mtffhst.jpg Due to the fact that NASA currently is finding it very hard to build its own shuttle alone due to funding problems, there is talk about letting NASA in on the ESA shuttle program. So it is safe to say that the EU is also settled in the space industry.
On the field of global trade, Europe is also extremely important, to 1.5 billion people outside the EU all across the globe, the EU is by far the biggest trade partner and the biggest investor. This gives the EU an enormous amount of economic influence. Also the EU is by far the largest exporter in the world even when you take away the internal trade figures.

$1.33 trillion; note - external exports, excluding intra-EU trade (2005)
The EU also has one of the strongest and most stable currencies in the world, the EURO. Much of the world today is considering switching to the EURO as the international currency, which for the EU is an economic miracle. China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and others are already switching in their dollars for Euros and Gold. This is quite simple to understand, due to the fact that the dollar might plummet due to its instability, there is a great risk of loosing money for investors.

Demographic

In Demographic terms the EU is vastly powerful, taking up the 3rd spot in the world with 495 million inhabitants with only India and China being higher at 1,1 and 1,3 billion. The population is expected to continue growing until the year 2025 and then slightly fall until 2050. However this is still half a century ahead and cannot be taken as accurate. It may happen sooner (population decline) it may happen later or it may not happen at all.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page?_pageid=1996,39140985&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&screen=detailref&language=en&product=Yearlies_new_population&root=Yearlies_new_population/C/C1/C11/caa10000

Political or Ideological

Well due to the fact of US political influence diminishing across the globe, we have witnessed the creation of a vacuum that is constantly being filled up by the EU. More and more nations across the globe are turning to the EU instead of other (potential)Superpowers due to the EU’s more diplomatic approach to international problems. The EU is also gaining more political and ideological influence across the world because of its foreign aid policy. In fact the EU is by far the largest giver of international aid.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/05/business_aid_and_development/img/1.jpg
The following map shows you that the EU is the largest foreign aid giver of the entire globe with only it’s 7 largest aid giving members states, giving 16,25 billion more foreign aid then the 2nd largest aid giver (the USA.)
This not only gives huge amounts of economic influence to the EU but also political and cultural influence, because lets face it? Who will a poor country be most loyal to? A nation that gives them more money? Or nations that are known as military bullies and give you less money too.

Military

Whether the EU is a military power is something that seems to be hard to be agreed on. What is a fact is that the EU has a very large military industry, and combined has the 2nd strongest military force with the 3rd strongest military force staying far behind on them when it comes to $ figures. Whether the difference between the EU and the USA is truly as great as the $ figures show isn’t sure. The fact that the US military is overstretched, modernisation programs are being suspended and that 2/3’s of the US army these days is poorly trained due to high demand for quick replacements makes it possible that the EU army with its lower budget is a military match.
The EU however is not yet one army, but there are sings of this happening, even before our kids grow into adulthood.
There already is a European Union Military high command called the EUMS, a combined EU security and Defence policy also already exists.
There are forces put in place under the Command of the EU where militaries of particular countries have been combined Examples are:
-The Eurocorps (Belgium, France, Germany, Spain and Luxembourg)
-The European Gendarmerie Force (France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, The Netherlands, Poland)
-EUFOR (a European Army built up from all member States)
-European Rapid Reaction Force (All EU member states have a portion of its military dedicated to EU military high Command)
-EU battle Groups (expeditionary forces from all EU member states ready to deploy across the globe at short notice)
There has also been an agreement of the big EU nations to start forming 1 EU army that encompasses every single bit of all the Armies of the EU.
There are also military intelligence communities under the command of the EU:
-EUCS
And there is the EDSP that has taken over from the WEU and is in fact a mutual defence pact that contains the EU members and supersedes the authority of NATO over the EU armed forces.
Another factor for military supremacy is Nuclear weapons, EU member states have a substantial Nuclear arsenal large enough to challenge any other Nuclear power, many EU nations poses the technology and the tools to create high yield nuclear weapons in weeks, sometimes months. The nations with this Nuclear weapon capability are:
-The Netherlands
-Germany (has delivery systems already in place and trains upon the use of them).

All together the only real argument besides “the EU SUX”, which according to me is just fear that the USA might no longer be able to do what it wants, that has been made against the EU being/becoming a Superpower is it’s not being a nation. The fact remains that the EU member states have said that it is a goal, and when you look at the nation in detail (and turning of the hope that the EU doesn’t have the possibility of surpassing the EU) you will find that Brussels already has tremendous amounts of authority over the EU member states, so much even that it is comparable to the amount of power that Washington has over the US states. It has almost reached the point that calling the EU no more then an organisation is the same as calling the USA an organisation and not a country. Remember being a nation is more then just being called a nation.

As a matter of fact the EU is in most respects more a country then the Soviet Union has ever been before, it is very important to note, that the Soviet Union was NOT a country and cannot be called such by people who do not classify the EU as one. The EU is most likely already a superpower but a new form of it.

You really have no Idea of the difference between NAFTA and the EU do you?

Your argument is that the EU should be counted as a country because of the economic integration that currently exists. I argue that it shouldn't because economic integration exists elsewhere with similar levels.

Anyways, good luck getting the European states to agree to anything embargo-esque, when they can't even agree on the CAP.

Anyways, I was arguing that your claim was an absurdity, much akin to making the claim that NAFTA is a single state entity.

Hell, the EU doesn't even have a unified Nuclear Weapons Command. It's only a fanciful wet dream of a country until it becomes possible for a German General to command French nuclear weapons.

www.google.com , you lazy sod
No, it's The-Low-Countries's claim, he should prove it.

www.google.com , you lazy sod

Actually, it is the duty of the poster making the claim to prove the claim, not to tell his opponents to go off and search it out.

GDP growth has taken a temporary hit from the effects of the housing slowdown. The vast bulk of the other aspects of the economy continue to show robust growth. Further, much of the US has experienced harsh late-winter weather, which has had an impact on economic performance as well. As always, US GDP will fluctuate, and we'll probably see better GDP growth in Quarters II and III, now that the weird weather of quarter I is fine. Further, US GDP growth is in line with the rest of the developed world.

Germany has experienced from the reforms initiated under Chancellor Schroeder, and the current round of economic growth is tied to the decreasing government restrictions on the economy. The German economy will experience a temporary period of rapid economic growth, which will cool off to something in the range of 1.5-2.5% within several quarters.
Comparing growth in developed and developing economies, though, is like comparing apples to oranges.

Glad you mad that comparrison, because while the USA takes a hit, for whatever reason... The US economy slowed it just did and the reason doesn't really matter. While at the same time the German economy is still on the way up :). Also the Eu isn't just Germany, the overall GDP growth of the EU is 3,0%.



Except the US states are far more responsible fiscally than the Federal Government, with multiple years of balanced budgets on records in many of them.
Please please please, read again. The US federal government is cutting subsidies to the US states, meaning the US states are getting less money, to compensate for the loss they have to loan because the US states face two things: total failure of the states infrastructure etc. due to lack of funding or they have to loan.Even in the USA, money doesnt magically apear in the treasury chest.

Switzerland, because I've heard they have a hollowed out mountain.

Your argument is that the EU should be counted as a country because of the economic integration that currently exists. I argue that it shouldn't because economic integration exists elsewhere with similar levels.

Anyways, good luck getting the European states to agree to anything embargo-esque, when they can't even agree on the CAP.

Anyways, I was arguing that your claim was an absurdity, much akin to making the claim that NAFTA is a single state entity.

Hell, the EU doesn't even have a unified Nuclear Weapons Command. It's only a fanciful wet dream of a country until it becomes possible for a German General to command French nuclear weapons.

Love it, So american to judge something by its guns :)

Glad you mad that comparrison, because while the USA takes a hit, for whatever reason... The US economy slowed it just did and the reason doesn't really matter. While at the same time the German economy is still on the way up :). Also the Eu isn't just Germany, the overall GDP growth of the EU is 3,0%.

The EU economy includes the Eastern European states, who, if you'd like to correctly recall, are rated by the World Bank as developing economies, where one would expect rapid growth, beyond that of a developed economy.



Please please please, read again. The US federal government is cutting subsidies to the US states, meaning the US states are getting less money, to compensate for the loss they have to loan because the US states face two things: total failure of the states infrastructure etc. due to lack of funding or they have to loan.Even in the USA, money doesnt magically apear in the treasury chest.

No, but as Kamarck points out, it is far more difficult for the states to get loans, rather, they are required to improve efficiency, cut services and/or raise taxes. Those are the primary methods by which states confront budget crises.

Love it, So american to judge something by its guns :)

Nuclear Weapons, if you must. If the states involved are unwilling to cede terminal authority over nuclear weapons to a unified command, as such they remain independent, sovereign states.

France is France first, the UK is the UK first, Germany is Germany first and Italy is Italy first. There is no sovereign European state.

German immigration laws remain German immigration laws. French immigration laws remain French immigration laws. There are so many areas where the EU lacks the unity and cohesion of an actual country, that no one can, in good standing, call the EU a country.

Terminal loyalty of the citizens of Europe continues to remain with their own independent nations.

Now, don't get me wrong, I'd love a fully integrated and unified Europe, that would be one of the best things to happen in international politics since the collapse of the USSR, or perhaps the defeat of fascism, but it's not reality, and wishing for it to be so is not going to accomplish anything.

The us will certainly still be the worlds super power, simply because there isn't another, at least of the other economicly strong nations like China or "Europe" that finance the military and the military policies as much as the US and especialy on technology advances in the military. Like stealth planes, more effective weapons and so on. Also Europe mostley focuses on keeping peace and good relations to other countries, the us with their strong army invades other countries if they become a threat to them and forces them not to advance to much in military developments like nuclear weapons (norh korea, irak, afganistan etc.) simply so they always have the advantage to do whatever they want.

Do I really need to post my essay again?

Ok well here it goes:

NAFTA: reduction of trade tarrifs. Nothing much more. (no parliament, no law system (so NAFTA isn't allowed to say: every NAFTA state MUST allow gay Marraige while the EU can))

EU: (things you don't find in my essay: NO borders, a monitery union, a single fiscal policy, a law system where brussels can decide whether EU members are allowed the death penalty, Gay Marraige, Euthenasia etc., a budget, a military (yes there is a military in the EU the Transport capacity of the EU!!! military (not EU member states military but EU military) is 20.000 troops anywhere in the world a day and a reaction force etc etc etc growing fast blablabla,
Doesn't make the EU a state, though. I also think you have a slightly exaggerated idea of what the EU has power over. It has no standing army, the European Rapid Reaction Force is designed to coordinate - not replace - European armies. Likewise, I doubt the EU can decide anything to do with Gay Marriage and Euthanasia. Neither would it be desirable to do so: the EU generally restricts itself to things that effect Europe by integration, like the roaming mobile charges (which is being scuppered by the states). Banning the death penalty is a condition of membership, but that doesn't make the EU a country, does it now?

And, for that matter, not all EU states are a member of the Euro (I live in one) and don't have a common fiscal policy. Tax rates differ from the low, flat taxes of the East, to the French system, and to middle of the road states like the UK and Germany.

the goal to become one nation)
Kind of admitting the EU isn't a country?

Don't get me wrong, I strongly supportive of the European project, and support further integration if it can benefit our lives and economies, which I think it can. I support a 'constitution' (but not the constitution) and think the German approach, a small, single, amendable Treaty is more the way forward. We don't need a single State to reap any benefits of integration.

The us will certainly still be the worlds super power, simply because there isn't another, at least of the other economicly strong nations like China or "Europe" that finance the military and the military policies as much as the US and especialy on technology advances in the military. Like stealth planes, more effective weapons and so on. Also Europe mostley focuses on keeping peace and good relations to other countries, the us with their strong army invades other countries if they become a threat to them and forces them not to advance to much in military developments like nuclear weapons (norh korea, irak, afganistan etc.) simply so they always have the advantage to do whatever they want.

And look how that's turning out for them, look Military is not the only thing that makes you a superpower. See indeed the EU cannot beat the USA militarily, but the EU does have the capacity to cripple the US economy down to the 3rd world level by the snap of a finger (it would be economic suicide for the EU aswell, but if there's a choice of going down by the hand of the USA and doing it while taking the USA down with it...) The EU being the dominant economy, atleast for now, gives it the power to temper the USA's military spread if it wishes to. Because even for the USA goes: No economy, no military. Nations that ignore that rule: North Korea. Look where it brought them.

Switzerland, because I've heard they have a hollowed out mountain.
It had better have nukes.

The us will certainly still be the worlds super power, simply because there isn't another, at least of the other economicly strong nations like China or "Europe" that finance the military and the military policies as much as the US and especialy on technology advances in the military. Like stealth planes, more effective weapons and so on. Also Europe mostley focuses on keeping peace and good relations to other countries, the us with their strong army invades other countries if they become a threat to them and forces them not to advance to much in military developments like nuclear weapons (norh korea, irak, afganistan etc.) simply so they always have the advantage to do whatever they want.


And your "strong" military is doing so damn well...

And your "strong" military is doing so damn well...

The US military is designed around the concept of combating an existential threat in a great power war. It is designed for rapid, mechanized movement and advance over great distances, against similarly equipped enemies. Insurgencies do not actually inflict much damage on such a military, rather, they inflict psychological damage on the public opinion of democratic states.

And look how that's turning out for them, look Military is not the only thing that makes you a superpower. See indeed the EU cannot beat the USA militarily, but the EU does have the capacity to cripple the US economy down to the 3rd world level by the snap of a finger (it would be economic suicide for the EU aswell, but if there's a choice of going down by the hand of the USA and doing it while taking the USA down with it...) The EU being the dominant economy, atleast for now, gives it the power to temper the USA's military spread if it wishes to. Because even for the USA goes: No economy, no military. Nations that ignore that rule: North Korea. Look where it brought them.

Rather, I'd argue that the US is the one real country that could separate from the RoW and be able to maintain itself to some degree. If the EU were one country, it could do so as well, but it is not, and therefore cannot be counted as a state capable of maintaining decent lifestyles in a state of Autarky.

Doesn't make the EU a state, though. I also think you have a slightly exaggerated idea of what the EU has power over. It has no standing army, the European Rapid Reaction Force is designed to coordinate - not replace - European armies. Likewise, I doubt the EU can decide anything to do with Gay Marriage and Euthanasia. Neither would it be desirable to do so: the EU generally restricts itself to things that effect Europe by integration, like the roaming mobile charges (which is being scuppered by the states). Banning the death penalty is a condition of membership, but that doesn't make the EU a country, does it now?

And, for that matter, not all EU states are a member of the Euro (I live in one) and don't have a common fiscal policy. Tax rates differ from the low, flat taxes of the East, to the French system, and to middle of the road states like the UK and Germany.[/qupte]No actually there is an EU army, there are soldiers in Europe that can say: I am in an EU regimant/Brigade etc. There's even a military high command in Brussels.

On taxes: Isn't that the same as the USA? Doesn't California have a different tax rate then Florida for example, doesnt Texas take taxes on different things then Nebraska does?

And now about the EU being allowed to say: Abortion is illegal. It is allowed but just like you sayed, something unwise for Brussels to do. But if Brussels goes so crazy to say: No more Abortion in the EU, they have the authority. It's the same with Washington, they have the authority to say: No more abortion in the USA, but doing so would cause mass outcry Therefore Washington/Brussels have both sayed: It's allowed, the individual (member)states are however also allowed to make it illegal in their own states.


[quote]Kind of admitting the EU isn't a country?

Don't get me wrong, I strongly supportive of the European project, and support further integration if it can benefit our lives and economies, which I think it can. I support a 'constitution' (but not the constitution) and think the German approach, a small, single, amendable Treaty is more the way forward. We don't need a single State to reap any benefits of integration.
Never sayed it was, have always sayed the EU was a country like orgnisation moving towards it at a speed never seen before. The EU is sort of stuck between a nation and a political-economic unity.

Rather, I'd argue that the US is the one real country that could separate from the RoW and be able to maintain itself to some degree. If the EU were one country, it could do so as well, but it is not, and therefore cannot be counted as a state capable of maintaining decent lifestyles in a state of Autarky.

Ok got your point, but you are aware that the USA is FAR FAR more reliant on the outside world then the EU is, just because the EU isn't officially a country doesn't mean they won't continue to rely on eachother.

And your "strong" military is doing so damn well...

my "strong" military...? I'm not an american.. but yes i would agree that they are doing pretty good.. if youre thinking about how many that have died in irak and so on, it's not very simple to fight terrorists when they seem to be ordinary people.

Whitout the us and our good relations with them Europe haven't been were it is today and neither would the us, I'm only implying that i believe that the US will still be the superpower at least in year 2020.

I'd argue that the primary reason I am predicting Chinese rise is the response of other powerful states to the PRC. The US, Japan, Australia and the Republic of Korea have all been quietly undertaking measures to solidify a front to the growth of the PRC. The status quo States are balancing against the PRC, which is a strong indicator that it is perceived to be an upcoming revisionist power.

Further, we can also see the states that experience the greatest threat from an increase in the power of the PRC seeking to make inroads into this united front. Mongolia is doing everything it can to closely align itself with what one might feel is a non-traditional ally; the United States...an act that I would consider to be closely tied to an increased perception of threat from the PRC. Taiwan, too, continues to rely on American guarantees to ensure its independence, and will seek to make inroads into the US favor.

It would be wise for the near states in Asia to guard against any Chinese expansion, but simply defending against the possibility doesn't mean it will occur. Just because the ROK prepares for a rise of China doesn't mean it is going to happen and there are a number of factors I have outlined before to show that it may indeed not happen.

As for Taiwan, China has never made any pretenses that it is not a threat. It has almost 1,000 missiles pointed at Taiwan from Fujian and holds mock invasion war games routinely and its military and political leaders often issue threats against Taiwan. In 2005, the NPC passed the anti-secession law giving China the legal right to invade Taiwan.

As for the US, while Taiwan and the ROC has been one of the US' most dependable allies, the US has rarely returned the favor. It cut off the ROC in 1948, which all but guaranteed a PLA victory on the mainland, it then wrote Taiwan off giving Taiwan 6 months to survive. Despite the ROC defeating the PLA attempt to take Kinmen in late October of 1949. Then there was the US renunciation of the 1954 US-ROC mutual defense treaty in 1979 and the 1982 Washington Accord that cut off arms sales to Taiwan for ten years and in 1992, the F16 sales were more tied to George Bush's political domestic concerns rather than any concern for Taiwan.

George W. Bush scolded a democratically elected President (Chen Shui Bian) in front of an unelected representative of an authoritarian regime (Wen Jiabao) over the missiles in Fujian. And just recently Sen. Warner told Taiwan not to play the TRA card. With friends like this, we don't need many enemies.

Taiwan should be very very careful about trusting the US. The US ran in Vietnam, it ran from Somalia, it ran from Lebanon, it will soon run from Iraq. Trust the US at your own risk.

Ok got your point, but you are aware that the USA is FAR FAR more reliant on the outside world then the EU is, just because the EU isn't officially a country doesn't mean they won't continue to rely on eachother.

Of course, no more so than the US would ever consider cutting ties with Western Europe, we're all too closely intertwined, and we would all suffer if we tried for Autarky.

my "strong" military...? I'm not an american.. but yes i would agree that they are doing pretty good.. if youre thinking about how many that have died in irak and so on, it's not very simple to fight terrorists when they seem to be ordinary people.

Whitout the us and our good relations with them Europe haven't been were it is today and neither would the us, I'm only implying that i believe that the US will still be the superpower at least in year 2020.

The military requirment of a superpower is that it needs to be hard or almost impossible to defeat. Well seeing that the USA and the EU are still allies, there is no military in the world that can beat the EU, besides the USA, which by the way is only hypothetical because the US army is far to overstreched to both keep its military interests abroad safe and at the same time mobelise enough of its military to defeat Europe.

There are other ways to project influence besides military, thinking that Military is the only way to project your influence is quite shallow and uneducated.

Of course, no more so than the US would ever consider cutting ties with Western Europe, we're all too closely intertwined, and we would all suffer if we tried for Autarky.

Indeed.

The US military is designed around the concept of combating an existential threat in a great power war. It is designed for rapid, mechanized movement and advance over great distances, against similarly equipped enemies. Insurgencies do not actually inflict much damage on such a military, rather, they inflict psychological damage on the public opinion of democratic states.

All of which means the US military is not equipped for the Iraq war and will lose it eventually due to it still being configured to die in huge numbers in West Germany, and that the insurgency is turning public opinion against the war

All of which means the US military is not equipped for the Iraq war and will lose it eventually due to it still being configured to die in huge numbers in West Germany, and that the insurgency is turning public opinion against the war

I would argue that the US is losing in Iraq because it has lost the sense of brutality required to win. It is overly concerned with the deaths of Iraqis--something that the US wasn't overly concerned about when it fought the Japanese (e.g. Hiroshima, Tokyo, Osaka) or the Confederates for that matter.

It is any doubt they won those wars and are losing this one. When you start to try to make war a civil experience, you have lost.

Robert E. Lee said that it is a good thing that war is so terrible, otherwise we should grow too fond of it.

That is why the US is losing, not because it is built to fight against the Soviets in some massive battle in Europe, but because it fights to win a war without killing--killing in drastic numbers. And that is something that just can't be done. The final point is this. Either give Iraq a hard war and win or leave.

The term superpower shouldn't be applied to a nation that is simply militarily or economically potent. You need both, as well as a genuine capability to enforce national policy globally. The United States won't lose it's position at the top, despite the best wishes of some. India will increase it's standing a great deal. China may not do as well assumed, if only because socialist states tend to implode upon themselves eventually. The Iranians will eventually be dealt with by Israel.

Neither China nor India are in a position to enforce Chinese policy outside of Asia. Whereas the United States and the UK are.

In the truest sense of the term "superpower" I don't see any changes within the next two decades. If the EU ever manages to pull itself together and unite its diverse population, they would certainly join America in the SP Club.

The military requirment of a superpower is that it needs to be hard or almost impossible to defeat. Well seeing that the USA and the EU are still allies, there is no military in the world that can beat the EU, besides the USA, which by the way is only hypothetical because the US army is far to overstreched to both keep its military interests abroad safe and at the same time mobelise enough of its military to defeat Europe.

There are other ways to project influence besides military, thinking that Military is the only way to project your influence is quite shallow and uneducated.

The europeean army is more overstreched then the us, because all european contries have smaller and more effective armies so that they can quickly get abroad were they are needed and we don't need particularly many new recruits nowadays. The us are in war with terror and will problaty keep get in conflict with the contries that hate them, therefore you need more new recruts. But the size doesen't matter very much, when you have much more advanced weaponry. And military is the only way you can keep power over other contries in the world we live, of course you need a good economic but still it is with the military you take over, force and so on other countries to do your will. You can't take over iraks oil by just being the great united states om america and looking neat..?

Also i never gave a scenario and didn't wrote anything about USA being at war with Europe, as i wrote i only believe that the USA will still be the super power and never meant that they will still be it only because of their military and their political policys but because of many reasons.

You are all wrong, its obviously Canada. ;)

All i need to make it work is to take Richard Dean Anderson hostage and make him build me a series on Superpower destroying missles. These shall inturn take out the USA, then China=World Power then I unleash on them and so on until only Canada isleft. After this I have all traces of weapons destroyed and force them to continue the making of Stargate SG-1 for even longer bringing back O'Niel! :D

MUWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!:D

seriously though, Canada will be the next superpower. maby not in 2020, but by 2050, when the US has collapsed. Canada would sweep in, take over and inherit all of the USA's stuff. Even if Canada only takes the blue states, it would still be enough for Canada to be a superpower

You are all wrong, its obviously Canada. ;)

All i need to make it work is to take Richard Dean Anderson hostage and make him build me a series on Superpower destroying missles. These shall inturn take out the USA, then China=World Power then I unleash on them and so on until only Canada isleft. After this I have all traces of weapons destroyed and force them to continue the making of Stargate SG-1 for even longer bringing back O'Niel! :D

MUWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!:D

Naaa did you have to remind me... Stargate sg1 <3 and stargate atlantis should atleast get an < Love both series!! and General O'Niel;P should get more hot chicks though.. perhaps that's the reason they had to end sg1..

"wrong. You're already losing superpower status, if not already lost it."---Swilatia

Hmmmm....world's largest economy
world's most powerful military (by a long shot)
biggest single cultural influence across the world

I think we could be doing things a hell of a lot better, but we're certainly not falling apart.