NationStates Jolt Archive

The European Union,

According to me the European Union is going to be a great superpower in this world. Although it will be different from the one we know today, the USA mainly gets its power threw militarization, and just forcing itself upon nations. This is attracting increasingly more resistance to the USA and lately we have even been seeing great resistance come from even the most loyal of the American allies, not to mention from less loyal- or non-allies. There are a few criteria that a nation has to meet before it can be certified as a Superpower and I will explain to you why the EU is actually a superpower. I warn you this is a long read but please, don’t criticize this if you haven’t read this. Or please do as I then know it is fuelled by nothing more then just sticking your head into the ground and hoping it will never happen.

Cultural

The European Union has great sphere of cultural influence due to the fact that the EU has a great diversity of cultures. Also the fact that the EU is a very pacifistic nation and is not totally work focussed makes it a more attractive culture then other (potential)Superpower cultures.

Geographically

Geographically the EU is also very privileged, the EU is the only (potential)Superpower in the world besides the USA that has a high enough food production to sustain itself and have enough to sell, also the EU is the only (potential)Superpower besides the USA that has enough natural recourses to sustain itself for decades to come, if you count out Oil and Gas that is but this goes for the USA as well. But since the EU is the only (potential)Superpower that is making meaningful efforts to completely cut off reliance of oil and natural gas, you could say that the EU also has the edge here.

The EU also has a geographical edge that no other (potential)Superpower has, and that is the fact that the EU has land everywhere. The EU has part of its land in South America, Islands off North America, Islands off central America, Islands off Africa, Islands in the Pacific, Islands in the Indian Ocean. Other (potential)superpowers have to rely on the leasing/renting of land in allied nations while Europe has the potential to build military installations in every part of the world without needing to ask a government beside its own.
The following map shows you the location of European overseas territory
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/44/Map-Europe-Outermost-regions.PNG

Economic

The EU economy is very large, in fact he largest economy in the world. According to IMF data the GDP of the EU is currently $14.518,503 Billion current International Dollars. According to the IMF the EU 2008 GDP level will be $15.172,720 Billion Current International Dollars.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2007/01/data/weorept.aspx?sy=2004&ey=2008&ssd=1&sort=subject&ds=.&br=0&pr1.x=47&pr1.y=12&c=998&s=PPPWGT&grp=1&a=1[
To compare I will first list the USA then China and then Japan. In these lists there will be 2 numbers the first is the current GDP level in billions current international dollars, the 2nd will be the 2008 GDP level in billions current international dollars.
USA: $13.657,129 & $14.384,872
China: $11.206,808 & $12.517,842
Japan: $4.346,008 & $4.518,827
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2007/01/data/weorept.aspx?sy=2004&ey=2008&ssd=1&sort=subject&ds=%2C&br=0&pr1.x=88&pr1.y=5&c=924%2C158%2C111&s=PPPWGT&grp=0&a=
Furthermore the EU infrastructure is one of the best in the world, and there are regions with THE best in the world. Productivty in the EU is also at a very high level, while at the same time the EU’s workweek is lower then in any other (potential)Superpower, as a matter of fact, recent studies published in the Wallstreet Journal show that the EU’s productivity per hour is unmatched.
When it comes to innovation the EU is up there with the USA, however the USA does have more patents per million people but due to the fact that the EU has far more inhabitants the EU figure is quite similar.
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/eco_pat_gra-economy-patents-granted
Another measurement of economic power (so it seems) is the space ability. The EU is the owner of a very large space agency, the only space agency in the world that rivals the American NASA. The ESA is constantly performing manned flights in space and it has a vast array of satellites both scientific and commercial. As a matter of fact the most important unmanned missions of the last 10 years are dominantly European and Europe has been working on it’s own space shuttle for quite some time now http://www.friends-partners.org/partners/mwade/graphics/m/mtffhst.jpg , there is even an upcoming ESA improved equivalent of the Hubble space telescope. Due to the fact that NASA currently is finding it very hard to build its own shuttle alone due to funding problems, there is talk about letting NASA in on the ESA shuttle program. So it is safe to say that the EU is also settled in the space industry.
On the field of global trade, Europe is also extremely important, to 1.5 billion people outside the EU all across the globe, the EU is by far the biggest trade partner and the biggest investor. This gives the EU an enormous amount of economic influence. Also the EU is by far the largest exporter in the world even when you take away the internal trade figures.

$1.33 trillion; note - external exports, excluding intra-EU trade (2005)
The EU also has one of the strongest and most stable currencies in the world, the EURO. Much of the world today is considering switching to the EURO as the international currency, which for the EU is an economic miracle. China, Russia, Saudi Arabia and others are already switching in their dollars for Euros and Gold. This is quite simple to understand, due to the fact that the dollar might plummet due to its instability, there is a great risk of loosing money for investors.

Demographic

In Demographic terms the EU is vastly powerful, taking up the 3rd spot in the world with 495 million inhabitants with only India and China being higher at 1,1 and 1,3 billion. The population is expected to continue growing until the year 2025 and then slightly fall until 2050. However this is still half a century ahead and cannot be taken as accurate. It may happen sooner (population decline) it may happen later or it may not happen at all.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page?_pageid=1996,39140985&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL&screen=detailref&language=en&product=Yearlies_new_population&root=Yearlies_new_population/C/C1/C11/caa10000

Political or Ideological

Well due to the fact of US political influence diminishing across the globe, we have witnessed the creation of a vacuum that is constantly being filled up by the EU. More and more nations across the globe are turning to the EU instead of other (potential)Superpowers due to the EU’s more diplomatic approach to international problems. The EU is also gaining more political and ideological influence across the world because of its foreign aid policy. In fact the EU is by far the largest giver of international aid.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/05/business_aid_and_development/img/1.jpg
The following map shows you that the EU is the largest foreign aid giver of the entire globe with only it’s 7 largest aid giving members states, giving 16,25 billion more foreign aid then the 2nd largest aid giver (the USA.)
This not only gives huge amounts of economic influence to the EU but also political and cultural influence, because lets face it? Who will a poor country be most loyal to? A nation that gives them more money? Or nations that are known as military bullies and give you less money too.

Military

Whether the EU is a military power is something that seems to be hard to be agreed on. What is a fact is that the EU has a very large military industry, and combined has the 2nd strongest military force with the 3rd strongest military force staying far behind on them when it comes to $ figures. Whether the difference between the EU and the USA is truly as great as the $ figures show isn’t sure. The fact that the US military is overstretched, modernisation programs are being suspended and that 2/3’s of the US army these days is poorly trained due to high demand for quick replacements makes it possible that the EU army with its lower budget is a military match.
The EU however is not yet one army, but there are sings of this happening, even before our kids grow into adulthood.
There already is a European Union Military high command called the EUMS, a combined EU security and Defence policy also already exists.
There are forces put in place under the Command of the EU where militaries of particular countries have been combined Examples are:
-The Eurocorps (Belgium, France, Germany, Spain and Luxembourg)
-The European Gendarmerie Force (France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, The Netherlands, Poland)
-EUFOR (a European Army built up from all member States)
-European Rapid Reaction Force (All EU member states have a portion of its military dedicated to EU military high Command)
-EU battle Groups (expeditionary forces from all EU member states ready to deploy across the globe at short notice)
There has also been an agreement of the big EU nations to start forming 1 EU army that encompasses every single bit of all the Armies of the EU.
There are also military intelligence communities under the command of the EU:
-EUCS
And there is the EDSP that has taken over from the WEU and is in fact a mutual defence pact that contains the EU members and supersedes the authority of NATO over the EU armed forces.
Another factor for military supremacy is Nuclear weapons, EU member states have a substantial Nuclear arsenal large enough to challenge any other Nuclear power, many EU nations poses the technology and the tools to create high yield nuclear weapons in weeks, sometimes months. The nations with this Nuclear weapon capability are:
-The Netherlands
-Germany (has delivery systems already in place and trains upon the use of them).

All together the only real argument besides “the EU SUX”, which according to me is just fear that the USA might no longer be able to do what it wants, that has been made against the EU being/becoming a Superpower is it’s not being a nation. The fact remains that the EU member states have said that it is a goal, and when you look at the nation in detail (and turning of the hope that the EU doesn’t have the possibility of surpassing the EU) you will find that Brussels already has tremendous amounts of authority over the EU member states, so much even that it is comparable to the amount of power that Washington has over the US states. It has almost reached the point that calling the EU no more then an organisation is the same as calling the USA an organisation and not a country. Remember being a nation is more then just being called a nation.

As a matter of fact the EU is in most respects more a country then the Soviet Union has ever been before, it is very important to note, that the Soviet Union was NOT a country and cannot be called such by people who do not classify the EU as one. The EU is most likely already a superpower but a new form of it.

I agree, but I also believe that we shouldn't ignore India. It may grow slower then China, but I believe that it's growth is more stable.

I'd recomend reading John McCormick's book "The European Superpower" to go into this deeper. Its v good.

I agree, Europe will be amoung the worlds next great powers. I belive it will be a tripartite. The EU, US and China, but the US being one of the lesser as its over reach currently is begining

Here's why it's not: The EU, for all of it's very real achievements and advancements, cannot agree to act together for any real length of time. It's a union, an alliance, of separate, independent countries. All it takes is just ONE country to say "No" and the EU grounds to a halt. See the current constitutional crisis.

Which I must remind you is nothing more then a book that brings all already signed treaties together in one treaty to make it easier to oversee nothing more.

Rock on the EU. Down with ze Americans. :sniper: :mp5: :sniper: :mp5: :sniper: :mp5: :sniper: :mp5: :sniper: :mp5:

Here's why it's not: The EU, for all of it's very real achievements and advancements, cannot agree to act together for any real length of time. It's a union, an alliance, of separate, independent countries. All it takes is just ONE country to say "No" and the EU grounds to a halt. See the current constitutional crisis.

I just have one comment.

Why was France left out as a nuclear capable nation?

I mean, 80% of its power comes from nuclear sources in the first place and it definitely has a nuclear arsenal.

I think you misunderstood, the Uk and France already have a nuclear arsenall, Germany and the Netherlands are capable of building one at high speed (weeks/or up to 2 months).

I just have one comment.

Why was France left out as a nuclear capable nation?

I mean, 80% of its power comes from nuclear sources in the first place and it definitely has a nuclear arsenal.

Which I must remind you is nothing more then a book that brings all already signed treaties together in one treaty to make it easier to oversee nothing more.
You seem to have missed the point here, when France and the Netherlands rejected the new constitution, it tossed the EU into a constitutional crisis because the time line for the Eu called for the bloody thing to pass. This means the EU is going to have to try again, hopefully with a way to get it to pass, but, again, ti can be derailed by one country. That shows just how fragile the EU is, just ONE country has to say no and the EU is left spinning its wheels while trying to figure out what to change to get that one country to agree, without losing the rest of them.

It's like a giant UN Security Council, or the US before the Constitution was implemented.

If the EU ever manages to pull together, it will easily gain superpower status, but as long as it is a bunch of countries that pull together for about two steps, then stop a long while to agree on the next two steps, then take a step, go back, talk again, then go two steps and repeat... It's hard to see the EU being able to project its power in any meaningful way.

Just in: http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/27/news/economy/gdp/index.htm?cnn=yes

Seems the EU-USA economic gap is only widening in the EU's favour.

I think you misunderstood, the Uk and France already have a nuclear arsenall, Germany and the Netherlands are capable of building one at high speed (weeks/or up to 2 months).

I did indeed misunderstand.

Yes, well, if Europe can ever get over it's PC and it's law and order crisis (see: Malmo, Paris riots), it might blossom. The operative word here is "might".

Yes, well, if Europe can ever get over it's PC and it's law and order crisis (see: Malmo, Paris riots), it might blossom. The operative word here is "might".

And you think the USA doesnt have the problems you just described?

Still comparing apples and oranges in a European Supremacist chest-pounding, eh?

Still comparing apples and oranges in a European Supremacist chest-pounding, eh?

Yes Indeed but I dont think its me comparing appels to Oranges.

Comparing what happened to paris to what happens on a daily basis in the USA.. makes what happened in Paris look like a "hand Out flowers to every one day". In the USA the social standards on that topic have already dropped so low that you almost need to set of a nuclear bomb in time square just to be able to compete with all the violence reported in the USA. Paris got reported because its unusual, if it happened in a US city youd here: Oh and in the USA students have been vandalising the city, now on to the stockmarkets tell my cindy how is the dow jones?

Yes Indeed but I dont think its me comparing appels to Oranges.

Comparing what happened to paris to what happens on a daily basis in the USA.. makes what happened in Paris look like a "hand Out flowers to every one day". In the USA the social standards on that topic have already dropped so low that you almost need to set of a nuclear bomb in time square just to be able to compete with all the violence reported in the USA. Paris got reported because its unusual, if it happened in a US city youd here: Oh and in the USA students have been vandalising the city, now on to the stockmarkets tell my cindy how is the dow jones?

The USA is a nation-state. The EU is an alliance of nation-states.
Apple. Orange.

But hey, you don't need any *reason* to rant on about how inferior the USA is, do you?

My country's cultural, economic, political and military phalli are larger than your country's cultural, economic, political and military phalli.

Very interesting, however the EU is an organisation of independant nations, nothing like the states of the USA.

I'd like to see EU emerging as a superpower, though I agree with what has NERVUN said, it has big problems with taking an unified stance on many things (although as far as I am concerned it seems to be improving). By the way, I feel it's in need of some sort of unifying and purpose-giving idea. US has their democratisation - this idea is often, as I feel, abused, but at least there is something to inspire.

Someone once on these forums compared EU to early US, together with a prediction of a civil war. Though I am pro-EU, I guess I'll find myself Confederate stuff. :(

The USA is a nation-state. The EU is an alliance of nation-states.
Apple. Orange.

But hey, you don't need any *reason* to rant on about how inferior the USA is, do you?

Ehhh, that's arguable. Sure, Tennessee isn't much different from Kentucky or Alabama, but California is much different from Pennsylvania or Louisiana.

True, at even the most extremes American states aren't as different as say...France and Great Britain. They're more like the difference between France, Wallonia, and Romandy, or England and Ireland. So I'd say America falls somewhere in between a nation-state and a collection of nation-states.

Saying such things about England and Ireland must be making Irish really pissed off:)

Saying such things about England and Ireland must be making Irish really pissed off:)

Well, to be fair, I think it's safe to say that Ireland and England's similarities exist mainly because of England's "Anglicization" of Ireland.

I think the EU is more just in its exercise of power. The U.S. gives a lot of foreign military aid, and moves in its companies to monopolize the resources of third world countries. The EU on the other hand gives more money for straight up food (bad) and development (good). Being from Canada, I can say I like the EU's style better. They work less yet are more productive, have nice infrastructure, and are a much more orderly and humane society. Unfortunately, Canada is moving more in a US type direction even because our Conservative party knows exactly what to say to make people vote for things that aren't good for them.

The EU military is a joke though. The US military if it was going all out (non-nuclear, but attacking civilian and military industrial infrastructure like in WWII) would destroy any one superpower easily and probably two superpowers combined. The EU could merely hope to fight another superpower to a standstill and sue for peace.

Economics, politics, and way of life are really the EU's biggest strengths. It's playing those pretty well. But it really needs to work on it's inability to get anything done. Although, I think eventually, just opposing the US will be reason enough to truly unify Europeans. They will see all of the wrongs committed by America and all of the problems in American society and will join together in a kind of non-violent resistance.

i think the idea of a the EU a superpower is posible but not necesarily in the way low countries has mentioned.

As nations become more intergrated, the chances of war become less likely. If we treat war as the simplist way of increasing a countries wealth, acquisition of labour, resources, land, etc... then it become less likely to attack a large wealthy grouping than a small solitary nation.

The main strengh that the EU will bring to the world will be a large market, and a guide to how the other proto-unions should develope.
And of course how countries can overcome historical animosity to actually realise they share more similarities than differences

Eu is moralistic?:eek:

WHy is France and Germany trying to raise the EU ban on arms sales to China then?

Or refusing to reform CAP which would help african farmers export food to the EU and earn more $$$

The big problems with the eu are this

1. Council of ministers: Unelected... meets in secret
2. EU commision: Unelected , meets in secret
3. EU parliment: elected, has the power to overrule the above but never does since the MEP's are largely appointed from party lists and keen to not to cause too much trouble.


Could you imagine a EU nation state with that power structure? or the US for that matter?

As for foriegn policy, just look at the Bosnia war, death camps , mass killings, and the EU's idea of a solution.... spend 3 years sending peace envoys and saying 'please stop fighting'

I think the EU is more just in its exercise of power. The U.S. gives a lot of foreign military aid, and moves in its companies to monopolize the resources of third world countries. The EU on the other hand gives more money for straight up food (bad) and development (good). Being from Canada, I can say I like the EU's style better. They work less yet are more productive, have nice infrastructure, and are a much more orderly and humane society. Unfortunately, Canada is moving more in a US type direction even because our Conservative party knows exactly what to say to make people vote for things that aren't good for them.

The EU military is a joke though. The US military if it was going all out (non-nuclear, but attacking civilian and military industrial infrastructure like in WWII) would destroy any one superpower easily and probably two superpowers combined. The EU could merely hope to fight another superpower to a standstill and sue for peace.

Economics, politics, and way of life are really the EU's biggest strengths. It's playing those pretty well. But it really needs to work on it's inability to get anything done. Although, I think eventually, just opposing the US will be reason enough to truly unify Europeans. They will see all of the wrongs committed by America and all of the problems in American society and will join together in a kind of non-violent resistance.

You're welcome for the help in WWII and helping to protect you from Soviet Russia. If we had known that doing that made us so evil we'd never have done it. Actually we never wanted to in the first place if that makes a difference. We'll remember this next time Germany decides to kick all of Europes ass again or Putin decides to dust off his 'Iron Curtain' :rolleyes: And yes I know you are Canadian, but Canada/EU ... it's all clicks and whistles to me.

Private American citizens donate more money than most European countries do for those same causes. Not to mention our Government gives more foreign aid (not just in military terms) than most European countries. Of course I admit that last piece is something I recall reading and don't know how valid it is. If you have numbers feel free to prove me wrong but I know the first stat is correct, but again, I'm lacking numbers.

Still comparing apples and oranges in a European Supremacist chest-pounding, eh?

:Oceania supremacy rant: *Looks around* whoops, wrong hemisphere.

Wouldn't it be preferable to have a single nation for all humans? That being said the EU seems to be chugging along alright.

Yes, well, if Europe can ever get over it's PC and it's law and order crisis (see: Malmo, Paris riots), it might blossom. The operative word here is "might".
Minor exaggeration, don't you think?

In any case, I can't see the EU as a superpower, purely because it isn't a single state with only a limited single army and foreign policy. Any clout it might have in the future will probably be exercised by its members.

It is more of a confederation right now.

You're welcome for the help in WWII and helping to protect you from Soviet Russia. If we had known that doing that made us so evil we'd never have done it. Actually we never wanted to in the first place if that makes a difference. We'll remember this next time Germany decides to kick all of Europes ass again or Putin decides to dust off his 'Iron Curtain' :rolleyes: And yes I know you are Canadian, but Canada/EU ... it's all clicks and whistles to me.

Private American citizens donate more money than most European countries do for those same causes. Not to mention our Government gives more foreign aid (not just in military terms) than most European countries. Of course I admit that last piece is something I recall reading and don't know how valid it is. If you have numbers feel free to prove me wrong but I know the first stat is correct, but again, I'm lacking numbers.

Which is much appriciated, and thanks verymuch for putting us in the center of a potential nuclear war aswell ;)

Actually Dutch citizens alone donated more to 2006 natural disasters then the US government did, and this is just a smalllllll country in the EU. So please if you're going to use private charity... then dont use one side of it, the EU has a private sector too you know. Also indeed the USA gives most aid of all countries, but then again it has the highest GDP of all countries, on GDP percentage... The USA is one of the smallest donaters of the western world, I dont have facts on hand and cant be bothered looking those up AGAIN so I wont say THE lowest although Im pretty sure it is. When you count just the top 7 EU nations... then you'll find that the EU gives almost twice asmuch as the USA does, and thats not counting the 20 others.

Eu is moralistic?:eek:

WHy is France and Germany trying to raise the EU ban on arms sales to China then?

Or refusing to reform CAP which would help african farmers export food to the EU and earn more $$$

The big problems with the eu are this

1. Council of ministers: Unelected... meets in secret
2. EU commision: Unelected , meets in secret
3. EU parliment: elected, has the power to overrule the above but never does since the MEP's are largely appointed from party lists and keen to not to cause too much trouble.


Could you imagine a EU nation state with that power structure? or the US for that matter?

As for foriegn policy, just look at the Bosnia war, death camps , mass killings, and the EU's idea of a solution.... spend 3 years sending peace envoys and saying 'please stop fighting'

1. USA did long ago, doesnt really make sence to have one western market closed while the other is open. China already has access to high tech western weaponry, denieing the European form will just lose buisness, besides doesnt the USA adore it when the EU follows its lead? Now dont go whining when for once it isnt to your liking.

2. Nothing wrong with CAP, just protecting our farmers.

3. Council, Comission, parliament, That's the European system, in 90% of Europe the government is ellected in the following simplified style: parliament gets ellected, Parliament has all authority, Parliament looks at what people voted for and then Parliament votes on who is the government (commision and Council) Besides its still a whole shitload more democratic then the American system. If you have a 100 million dollar campaign you can get in to presidential office whoever you are. Bush is your example. When politicians can buy themselves into office then there's something terribly wrong.

4. Huhuhu... Bosnia, We fought. And saying we built those deathcamps shows me you're just searching excuses to discredit the EU.


All I know is: A nation that requires its police force to use Assault rifles (USA) to aprehend even the smallest criminals is not on the moral high ground. Sure the EU has Moral problems, but compared to the USA, the EU is still a fountain.

1. USA did long ago, doesnt really make sence to have one western market closed while the other is open. China already has access to high tech western weaponry, denieing the European form will just lose buisness, besides doesnt the USA adore it when the EU follows its lead? Now dont go whining when for once it isnt to your liking.


So you're quite happy to sell arms to any regime not matter how bad? sounds like you want to be the US


2. Nothing wrong with CAP, just protecting our farmers.


So in your world , its ok for our manufacturing base to be destroyed by cheap stuff from China, but we must protect our farmers from world competion?
Further more explain why it is that 55% of the EU's budget is spent on 5% of the population?

3. Council, Comission, parliament, That's the European system, in 90% of Europe the government is ellected in the following simplified style: parliament gets ellected, Parliament has all authority, Parliament looks at what people voted for and then Parliament votes on who is the government (commision and Council) Besides its still a whole shitload more democratic then the American system. If you have a 100 million dollar campaign you can get in to presidential office whoever you are. Bush is your example. When politicians can buy themselves into office then there's something terribly wrong.

The point I'm making is that 2/3rds of the EU's power structure is unelected by the EU's population.
Imagine the outcry in the US if they only voted for congresscritters and those congresscritters appointed the president and senate.
And as for buying their way into power, thats pretty bad but its just as bad as being someones best buddy and getting appointed to the job


4. Huhuhu... Bosnia, We fought. And saying we built those deathcamps shows me you're just searching excuses to discredit the EU.

Which just goes to show you cant read :D
The Bosnian war only stopped when NATO stepped in and began a bombing campaign against the serb faction after the massacres in Srebrenica, before that no matter what happened the UN/EU troops were authorised to shoot back only in self defence.



All I know is: A nation that requires its police force to use Assault rifles (USA) to aprehend even the smallest criminals is not on the moral high ground. Sure the EU has Moral problems, but compared to the USA, the EU is still a fountain.

The EU will do exactly the same as the US... it will compete and look to its own interests first before worrying what the rest of the world thinks...... rather like every other country in the world